Water resource problems in

G.Davaa

Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Mongolia Water cycle variations possibly impacted by the climate change Introduction

Hydrological changes caused by:

Direct impacts as anthropogenic pressures such as land uses (agriculture, farming, mining, timbering and etc).

Direct and indirect impacts: Climate change ReconstructedReconstructed andand observedobserved airair temperaturetemperature andand waterwater levellevel ofof thethe UvsUvs lakelake

T air, oC 0 -1 -2 H, cm Huvs = 728.53*(dendro_ind.5) - 320.44 -3 R2 = 0.5724 -4 550 -5 -6 500 -7 -8 1570 1670 1770 1870 1970 450 t air = 11.436*(dendro_ind.5) - 14.869 Year t air annual mean, observed at 400

550 350 500 450 300 400 0.900 1.000 1.100 1.200 350

Dendro_index (moving average of 5 years) H uvs, cm 300 250 200 1570 1670 1770 1870 1970 Year H uvs. Est., cm H uv s ., c m TotalTable numbers 1. Total of rivers,numbers springs, of rivers, lakes springs, and mineral lakes andwaters mineral in Mongolia, waters in in Mongolia, 2003 in 2003 Name of provinces Rivers and streams Springs Mineral waters Lakes and ponds /Aimag/ total dried total dreid total dried total Dried Arkhangai 546 124 474 123 31 3 249 32 Bayan-Ulgii 293 17 736 42 13 1180 217 Bayankhongor 299 61 837 55 22 104 38 Bulgan 449 62 668 238 36 254 27 Gobi-Altai 219 2 779 35 75 0 Gobisumber 3 0 19 1 2 1 0 Darkhan-Uul 21 4 27 13 4 2 Dornogobi 0 0 345 50 4 1 0 Dornod 156 39 354 121 24 515 233 Dundgobi 1 0 187 15 5 12 0 Zavkhan 217 19 444 18 15 118 2 Orkhon 5 0 28 7 4 1 Uvurkhangai 294 51 530 97 37 3 110 20 Umnugobi 2 1 559 20 5 18 0 Sukhbaatar 35 22 368 41 6 55 4 Selenge 596 90 208 70 28 2 46 6 Tuv 537 94 413 103 17 1 235 72 Ulaanbaatar 72 22 106 22 20 1 4 1 Uvs 183 0 493 31 16 121 6 Khovd 214 7 468 10 9 201 4 Khuvsugul 1233 70 969 193 78 642 30 Khentii 246 17 588 179 6 247 65 Total in provinces 5621 702 9600 1484 374 10 4196 760 Total in the country 5565 683 9600 1484 374 10 4193 760

Table 1. Total numbers of rivers, springs, lakes and mineral waters in Mongolia, in 2003 Hydrological inventories were organized in 2003 and 2007.

2500

2000

1500 Y 2003 Y 2007 1000

500

0 River lakes Spring Mineral water

Number of water sources dried out in 2003 and 2007 Many changes occurring in water regime: Increase in flood peak discharge, shortening its duration, increase in low flow duration, late ice phenomena in autumn, yearly spring ice clearance, ice break occurs in winter and etc.

t0C y = -0.0053x + 7.3289 y = -0.0067x + 25.063 o 20 R2 = 0.9898 R2 = 0.9995 Monthly average height of 0 C, 18 y = -0.007x + 19.25 determined from radio sonde 16 y = -0.0068x + 23.353 R2 = 0.9986 2 14 R = 0.9981 data y = -0.0063x + 16.606 12 R2 = 0.9951 10 May 1386 m 8 y = -0.0069x + 24.599 2 6 R = 0.9991 June 3545.9 4 2 0 July 3735.7 m 759 1259 1759 2259 2759 3259 3759 H, m V VI VII VIII IX X August 3420.4

o H max , m ( t=0 C) Hmax(t=0oC) = 18.322 (T) - 32584 Sep. 2629.7 m. 4200 R2 = 0.2395 4000 Annual maximum height 3800 of 0oC in 1976-1993. 3600 3400 It is increasing by 17.3 3200 m/year. Total increase is 3000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 estimated as 531.3 m in H max , m ( t=0oC) Linear (H max, m (t=0oC)) 1976-2005 period. Changes in glacier areas, sq.km

1940-th 25 June, 10 Sep. Glacier massif map 1992 20008 Aug. 200 2 - Kharkhiraa 43.02 57.37- 36.08 31.29 - Turgen 50.13 51.03 34.74 33.83 Munkhkharhan - 36.96* - 27.42 Tsambagarav 105.09 90.98 74.8 71.52 Sair -11.51-6.62 Changes in glacier areas, % in comparison with area of 1940-th Glacier 1940-th 25 June, 1992 10 Sep. 2000 8 Aug. 2002 Kharkhiraa 0.0 - 16.1 27.3 Turgen 0.0 -- 30.7 32.5 Tsambagarav 0.0 13.4- 28.8 31.9 River water

V, KM3 400.0 90.0 Tuul river 80.0 350.0

70.0 300.0

60.0 250.0 50.0 34.6 øîî êì 200.0 40.0 (P-h), mm (P-h), 150.0 30.0 100.0 20.0 10.0 50.0

OH Precipitation (P), runoffdepth and evaporation Year 0.0 0.0 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 h, Tuul-UB P Bas in E=P- h =

Ground water level H, m y = -1E-04x + 1262.4 259.1 Oct-95 Mar-97 Jul-98 Dec-99 Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 Oct-06 R2 = 0.1715 3.00 15 1259 3.05 H = 0.0006x - 2.9802 16 258.9 3.10 R2 = 0.6554 17 258.8 3.15 3.20 18 258.7 3.25 19 258.6 3.30 20 3.35 H = 6E-05x + 1.0273 258.5 21 3.40 R2 = 0.5833 258.4 3.45 22 Dec-99 Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 date Mor on Ekh gol Arvaikheer 1000 Uvs lake 4

900 3.5 800 3 700 m 2.5 600

500 2 400 1.5 km3 total, V P, E, mm & H, c 300 1 200 100 0.5

0 0 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 OH H, Uvs E, mm P,mm V total, km3 3000 300 Khar-Us lake E = 7.2693 T - 13509 P = -0.468 T + 1170 2500 3000 R2 = 0.2788 600 R2 = 0.0032 250 2500 2000 m 500

m 2000 1500 200 1500 400 1000 150 1000 500 300 500 H, cm, m P, 0 100 0 200 Precipitation mm R, dV, E, dGW,R, E, m dV, -500 -500 50 100 -1000 mm elements, balance Water -1000 -1500 0 -1500 0 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 OH Surface inflow Groundwater inflow Chonokharaikh Evaporation Khovd river inflow Buyant river inflow Surface outflow Chang e in vo lume Evaporation Difference of ground water inflow and outflow Chang e in vo lume Delta GW Precipitation H annual aver.,cm Precipitation Linear (Precipitation) Linear (Evaporation) Mongolia's strategy and countermeasures (ongoing and/or planning)

Government Policies: National Water Program, National Program on Reduction of Natural Disasters, National Action Plan on Climate change, National Action Plan for Combating Desertification etc.

Government Policy on Ecology – In the article under 3.1 states that Water resources, its proper use and protection are key policy of the Government and needed to upgrade and improve water resources monitoring;

National Program on Reduction of Natural Disasters (2000-2010), Paragraph 3 states Policy on reduction of natural disasters, in its 14.1 states to improve monitoring activities for natural disaster prevention;

National Action Plan on Climate change: Adaptation measures, Natural disaster and infection diseases, and herewith focused to strengthening capacity building

“Law on Environmental protection”, “Law on fees for water resources and mineral water uses”, “Law on hydrological, meteorological and environmental monitoring”, “Law on Water”, and “Law on Protection against natural disasters” and others. Comparison of current climate and simulation results of GCM using bilinear interpolation method

•Annual mean air temp. in

1961-1990

•HadCM3- U.K.

•ECHAM4- Germany

•GFDL- USA

•CCGM3 - Canada

•CSIRO-Australia

N 1 bias = (X o − X m ) N ∑ n n n=1 Runoff depth and its future changes, mm/year Rainfall intensity parameter (I) equals to 0.40 in AOB, 0.27 in POB, 0.5 in IDB. Runoff change: A2: 2020, dY= 10 mm in Khentei Mts., 2-5 mm in other mountain areas, -2 mm in intermountainous valleys, and Gobi regions. Increase in runoff is 10 times less than increase value in potential evaporation. River water formation zone

Ã. Äàâàà, 2002

“National program on protection of head water and water sources” Current protected area and the area where forms 70 % of river water resources Strengthening Integrated water resource management: Major river basins where proposed to establish river basin Consuls Needs for the above strategy and countermeasures

Socio-economic scenarios (detail)

Climate change scenarios at regional scale

Land use scenarios (options)

Impact assessment results on ecosystems and vulnerability analysis

Adaptation policy – (real financed)

Impact of climate change and anthropogenic pressures on water resources and its integrated management What we expect from GEOSS

Use of GEOSS products (MOLTS, Satellite (GPM, soil moisture (MAVEX), glacier (ALOS), lake, natural disaster monitoring), water and energy budget monitoring, modeling and prediction)

Capacity Building Programs

Use of training and workshops organized within AWCI and others

Public awareness: Dissemination of knowledge for water resources management and application to practices

Shearing with best practices in IWRM, experiences, technologies

Application of IWRM to National and regional levels (Demonstration project : Selbe River basin, Mongolia ) Updated CEOP Ref. site configuration

in Mongolia □ Satellite image region ＋ MOLTS points Taiga “ULB radar” (run by MAVEX) newly implemented since the former CEOP Selbe river basin grassland “Northern Mongolia” Ulanbaataar taiga forest to semi-arid semi-desert grassland

desert “Mongolia” (run by MAVEX) since the former CEOP semi-desert

Source: Dr. J. Asanuma, University of Tsukuba