MINORITY AND MAJORITY: CLEAVAGES, CONFLICTS, AND ELECTORAL POLITICS IN THE INDIAN SUB-CONTINENT by Soham Das APPROVED BY SUPERVISORY COMMITTEE: ___________________________________________ Paul Diehl, Chair ___________________________________________ Jennifer S. Holmes ___________________________________________ Vito D’Orazio ___________________________________________ Meghna Sabharwal Copyright 2020 Soham Das All Rights Reserved To Apprehensive Majority and Alienated Minorities MINORITY AND MAJORITY: CLEAVAGES, CONFLICTS, AND ELECTORAL POLITICS IN THE INDIAN SUB-CONTINENT by SOHAM DAS, BA, PGDM, MA DISSERTATION Presented to the Faculty of The University of Texas at Dallas in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN POLITICAL SCIENCE THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT DALLAS August 2020 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS There are many people to thank for the completion of this dissertation. First and foremost, I express my gratitude to my supervisor, Professor Paul Diehl, who had stood by my side through thick and thin. The years in graduate school can turn out to be extremely exhausting at times, but I had the firm support and able guidance of an experienced and enthusiastic supervisor who did not allow me to dwindle my faith in my research. Moving on, Dr. Vito D’Orazio with his computational analytical skills and measurement approaches helped me immensely with the quantitative elements of my dissertation. His warm and friendly personality allowed me to approach him whenever I needed any assistance. My dissertation also benefitted a lot due to the advice that was given to it by Dr. Meghna Sabharwal; her insights about Indian politics helped me formulate my theoretical premises firmly. Apart from sharing academic knowledge, she has always acted as a morale booster for me and has time and again restored my faith in academia and research. I am also grateful to Professor Jennifer Holmes for extending her support to me throughout my graduate studies and solving my problems whenever I had one. Moreover, I cannot forget the help extended to me by Dr. Thomas Gray, who aided me with methodological puzzles and analytical coding principles, which came to me at a time when I needed it the most. I would like to thank the School of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences for the tuition waiver and teaching/research assistantship that was offered to me for my entire doctoral program. I would also like to thank the Office of Graduate Education in The University of Texas at Dallas for offering me travel grants so that I could present my research findings in various academic conferences during my doctoral studies. v Being an international student in Texas for a prolonged period of five years gave me an opportunity to spend time with many people, who have become a part of my extended family. I am extremely grateful that in the last five years I have been able to forge these wonderful friendships. I would take the liberty of thanking Rohit, Abhishek, Joy, Shaivya, Bhargav, Ishita, Piyush, Sumod, Rajarshi, and Arnava for helping me see through both happy and troubled times in this five-year long journey. A special mention goes for the esteemed colleagues and friends I had at the School of Economic, Political, and Policy Sciences. Five years at the TA room would not have been same without Prajakti, Blake, Nathan, Furkan, and Misty’s constant company. I am also grateful for having an extremely supportive family who were my source of strength all my life. My parents, sister, and brother-in-law were the happiest people on earth when I received my acceptance letter from the university back in the year 2015. To see me sail through this journey would make them even happier. I must also acknowledge my in-laws, who have showered me with love and affection throughout. Last but not the least, I will thank my wife Garima for keeping my head above water all these years. Garima has been my pillar of strength, and has been my most faithful, dutiful, and loyal supporter. I thank her for keeping me grounded, positive and happy. June 2020 vi MINORITY AND MAJORITY: CLEAVAGES, CONFLICTS, AND ELECTORAL POLITICS IN THE INDIAN SUB-CONTINENT Soham Das, PhD The University of Texas at Dallas, 2020 ABSTRACT Supervising Professor: Paul Diehl This dissertation examines the aspects of ethnic conflict not only through the lens of the minorities, but studies the apprehension and threat perspective of the majority as well. This makes the research significant and adds valuable contribution to the theoretical literature of ethnic politics. The first part of the dissertation, using social constructivist and horizontal inequality theories, argues that socioeconomic conditions, religion, and language are the three broad cleavages that influence the political behavior of minority groups in state. The dissertation analyzes the impact of multiple, simultaneous cleavages rather than only one in isolation, which is a unique contribution. Theoretical arguments are tested over 60 ethnic groups of the Indian Sub-Continent over 1947 – 2013. The second part of the doctoral research examines ethnic tensions from the majority’s point of view. The reasons for the apprehension or mistrust among dominant majority can be a number of factors including militancy, higher growth rate of minorities, and minority nationalism. The research examines these conditions through the lens of security dilemma among the Hindus against Muslims over past four election cycles in India. Thereafter, the dissertation argues that right-wing political organizations often exploit the majority’s phobia against minority nationalist ambitions in pursuit for electoral benefits in a multi-party democratic system. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS……………………………………………………………...................v ABSTRACT………………………………………………………………………………………vii LIST OF FIGURES…………………………………………………………………………..........ix LIST OF TABLES………………………………………………………………………..................x CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………..............1 CHAPTER 2 ETHNIC CONFLICT IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT: ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF MULTIPLE CLEAVAGES……………….......................................................................13 CHAPTER 3 ENDANGERED MAJORITY: ELECTORAL DYNAMICS OF INDIA………...46 CHAPTER 4 MINORITY NATIONALISM, RECOGNITION POLITICS, AND MAJORITARIAN ELECTORAL OUTCOMES: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF WEST BENGAL AND KERALA………………………...................................................................................78 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSION……………………………………………………………...........121 BIBLIOGRAPHY…………………………………………………………………………..........131 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH……………………………………………………………………142 CURRICULUM VITAE viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1: Impact of marginalization on group mobilization……………………………………...45 Figure 2.2: Marginal Effect of Economic Marginalization with respect to Religious Marginalization on Conflict Occurrence…………………………………........................................................................45 Figure 3.1: Descriptive Visualization of seats won by the majoritarian political coalition with the terrorism-related incidents in India (2004 – 2019)…………………………………………………74 Figure 3.2: Comparative Growth of Majority and Minority Population (2001 and 2011 census)…………………………………………………………….......................................................75 Figure 3.3: 2014 General Elections NDA Seats and Minority Nationalist Parties in Federal Units of India………………………………………………………………………………………………76 Figure 3.4: 2019 General Elections NDA Seats and Minority Nationalist Parties in Federal Units of India………………………………………………………………………………………………77 Figure 4.1: National and Bengal NDA Seats (2004-2019)…………………………………....…....118 Figure 4.2: Vote Shares of Major Political Parties of West Bengal (2009-2019)…………………...118 Figure 4.3: Parliamentary Seats won by Political Coalitions at National Elections in Kerala – 2014 and 2019……………………………………...........................................................................................119 Figure 4.4: Vote shares of the major coalitions in 2014 and 2019 National Elections in Kerala……………………………………………………...….............................................................119 Figure 4.5: District Level Religious Demographics of Kerala……………………………....……..120 ix LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Summary Table of Independent Variables……………………………………………...42 Table 2.2: Descriptive Statistics for Categories of Marginalization (1947-2013)…………………....43 Table 2.3: Conflict Occurrence – (0-1) (1947-2013)…………………………………………..........44 Table 3.1: Minority Nationalist Parties…………………………………………………………….72 Table 3.2: Autocorrelation Matrix………………………………………………………………....72 Table 3.3: Terrorism Related Incidents……………………………………………………………73 Table 3.4: The Effect of Endangered Majority Stimuli on Majoritarian Electoral Results……..........74 x CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Do ethnic divisions and marginalization based on identity promote violence? What were the differences between Tutsis and the Hutus that resulted into a genocide in Rwanda? Which cleavages of identity are more salient such that violence is more likely? These are the relevant questions in understanding ethnopolitical violence and electoral politics in fractionalized societies. In 1994, during the Rwandan genocide, 800,000 Tutsi minority people were murdered by the members of the Hutu ethnic majority in the east-central African nation of Rwanda. Started by the Hutu nationalists in the capital of Kigali, the genocide spread across the country with shocking speed and brutality before the Tutsi-led Rwandese Patriotic Front took control of