Retail and Town Centres Study Stage 2 Report March 2018 Urban Shape
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Retail and Town Centres Study Stage 2 Report March 2018 urban shape Caroline Marginson BSc (Hons), MA MRTPI Director 020 3745 8987 07940 571 818 [email protected] Adam Bunn BA (Hons) MA MSc MRTPI Associate Director 020 3745 8981 07866 721 854 [email protected] www.urbanshape.co.uk Contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................... 1 2. Policy Framework ........................................................................... 2 3. Southall Major Centre .................................................................. 19 4. Acton District Centre .................................................................... 25 5. Greenford District Centre ............................................................. 31 6. Hanwell District Centre ................................................................. 37 7. Need ............................................................................................. 42 8. Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................. 57 Appendix 1: Convenience Goods Need Appendix 2: Comparison Goods Need www.urbanshape.co.uk • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Appendix 1 Convenience Goods Need www.urbanshape.co.uk London Borough of Ealing Retail and Town Centres Study 2018 Convenience Goods Need Assessment Table 1 Survey Population Forecasts Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Total 2017 48,252 37,410 33,310 53,790 48,913 67,191 75,305 50,764 23,156 141,319 94,911 142,323 816,644 2022 50,435 39,206 34,801 56,807 51,084 70,184 78,946 51,650 24,703 150,983 102,249 148,124 859,172 2027 52,355 40,636 36,052 59,463 52,993 72,581 82,038 52,697 25,869 158,941 109,195 153,375 896,195 2032 54,234 41,977 37,260 62,092 54,923 74,510 84,682 54,292 26,818 165,943 115,278 158,681 930,690 2037 56,228 43,499 38,577 64,859 56,926 76,950 87,808 55,468 28,039 174,151 122,067 164,134 968,705 Change 2017-2037 7,976 6,089 5,267 11,069 8,013 9,759 12,503 4,704 4,883 32,832 27,156 21,811 152,061 Source: Experian Micromarketer May 2017 Table 1a Survey Area Postal Sectors Zone 1 UB5 4/5/6 Zone 2 UB6 0/7/8 Zone 3 UB1 2; UB6 9 UB1 1/3, UB2 4/5 Zone 4 Zone 5 W13 0/8, W7 1/2/3 Zone 6 W13 9, W5 1/2/3/4/5 Zone 7 W3 0/6/7/8/9; W4 1/5 Zone 8 NW10 6, W12 0/7/8/9 Zone 9 TW8 0/8/9 Zone 10 TW4 5/6/7, TW5 0/9, TW3 1/2/3/4, TW7 4/5/6/7 Zone 11 UB3 1/2/3/4/5, UB4 0/8/9, UB11 1 Zone 12 HA0 1/2/4, HA9 6/7, NW10 0/2/3/4/5/7/8/9 London Borough of Ealing Retail and Town Centres Study 2018 Convenience Goods Need Assessment Table 2 Survey Area Retail Expenditure Forecasts (2015 prices) - Convenience Goods Expenditure Forecast Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Total Per Capita (£) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) 2017 1,861 89.8 69.6 62.0 100.1 91.0 125.0 140.1 94.5 43.1 263.0 176.6 264.9 1,519.8 2022 1,824 92.0 71.5 63.5 103.6 93.2 128.0 144.0 94.2 45.0 275.3 186.5 270.1 1,566.7 2027 1,819 95.3 73.9 65.6 108.2 96.4 132.1 149.3 95.9 47.1 289.2 198.7 279.0 1,630.5 2032 1,821 98.8 76.4 67.8 113.1 100.0 135.7 154.2 98.9 48.8 302.2 209.9 288.9 1,694.6 2037 1,826 102.7 79.4 70.4 118.4 104.0 140.5 160.3 101.3 51.2 318.0 222.9 299.7 1,768.9 Change 2017-37 - 12.9 9.8 8.5 18.3 12.9 15.5 20.2 6.8 8.1 55.0 46.3 34.8 249.1 London Borough of Ealing Retail and Town Centres Study 2018 Convenience Goods Need Assessment Table 3 Convenience Goods Allocation 2017 - % Market Share Zone Policy Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Centre/Store Allocation (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Ealing Metropolitan Centre Stores Ealing Broadway Morrisons, The Arcadia Centre, The Broadway Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 3.9% 3.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.2% M&S Food, Ealing Broadway Centre Town Centre 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 3.9% 4.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Tesco Metro, Ealing Broadway Centre Town Centre 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.1% 8.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% Sainsbury's Local, The Broadway Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Tesco Express, Haven Green Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Local Stores, Ealing Broadway Town Centre 0.0% 1.1% 2.5% 1.8% 0.7% 5.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% West Ealing Sainsbury's Superstore, Melbourne Avenue Town Centre 0.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 10.5% 10.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Waitrose, Alexandria Road Town Centre 0.0% 2.7% 1.0% 2.2% 23.2% 17.8% 1.4% 0.2% 2.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% Lidl, The Broadway Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.7% 1.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Tesco Express, Uxbridge Road Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Iceland, The Broadway Town Centre 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Local Stores, West Ealing Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Sub-total, Ealing Metropolitan Centre 2.8% 5.2% 5.0% 9.8% 52.2% 51.9% 7.9% 1.0% 5.6% 4.1% 0.5% 1.6% Southall Major Centre Market Share % Lidl, High Street Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Iceland, South Road Town Centre 0.4% 0.0% 1.6% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Local Stores, Southall Town Centre Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% Sub-Total, Southal Major Centre 0.4% 0.0% 7.4% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% Hanwell District Centre Market Share % Lidl, Uxbridge Road Town Centre 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.2% 5.9% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Nisa, Uxbridge Road Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Local Stores, Hanwell District Centre Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Sub-Total, Hanwell District Centre 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.2% 6.5% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Acton District Centre Market Share % Morrisons, King Street Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 3.0% 26.6% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Sainsbury's Local, Churchfield Road Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Local Stores, Acton District Centre Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Sub-Total, Acton District Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 3.0% 29.4% 5.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Greenford District Centre Market Share % Iceland, The Broadway Town Centre 0.6% 0.7% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Lidl, Ruislip Road Town Centre 0.0% 2.2% 6.3% 1.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% Tesco Metro, Greenford Road Town Centre 1.3% 8.4% 15.5% 0.9% 4.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Local Stores, Greenford District Centre Town Centre 0.3% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Sub-Total, Greenford District Centre 2.2% 16.6% 29.2% 2.7% 5.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 1.4% London Borough of Ealing Retail and Town Centres Study 2018 Convenience Goods Need Assessment Table 3 Convenience Goods Allocation 2017 - % Market Share Zone Policy Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Zone 11 Zone 12 Centre/Store Allocation (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Neighbourhood Centres / Shopping Frontages Market Share % Asda, Western Rd, Park Royal Neighbourhood Centre Town Centre 1.5% 2.6% 4.1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.8% 8.5% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 28.4% Tesco Superstore, Hoover Building, Western Ave Shopping Frontage Town Centre 1.6% 30.5% 7.0% 0.1% 6.0% 2.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Iceland, Greenford Road, Sudbury Hill Neighbourhood Centre Town Centre 0.8% 6.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Co-Op, Church Road, Northolt Neighbourhood Centre Town Centre 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Local Shops, Northolt Neighbourhood Centre Town Centre 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Local Shops, Pitshanger Lane Neighbourhood Centre Town Centre 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Local Shops, South Ealing Neighbourhood Centre Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Local Shops, East Acton Neighbourhood Centre Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Local Shops, Perivale Neighbourhood Centre Town Centre 0.0% 3.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Local Shops, Westway Cross Neighbourhood Centre Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Tesco Express, King Street Neighbourhood Centre Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% Local Shops, King Street Neighbourhood Centre Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Local Shops, Northfields Neighbourhood Centre Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Co-Op, Yeading Lane Shopping Frontage Town Centre 2.4% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Co-Op, Greenford Avenue Shopping Frontage Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Co-Op, Horn Lane Shopping Frontage Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Tesco Express, Oldfield Lane North Shopping Frontage Town Centre 1.3% 4.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Tesco Metro, The Vale Shopping Frontage Town Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 4.9% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% Tesco Express,