Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy

March (update) 2017

RESEARCH AND INFORMATION

Research and Information Briefing Paper March (update) 2017 Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy This is one in a series of briefing papers that has been produced by the Research and Information team. It is intended that these papers will be used by Council services and, where appropriate, our Community Planning partners to assist policy development and wider service delivery. Some papers, including this one, may be of interest to a wider audience.

This paper looks at Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy in Aberdeen City, up-dating the Briefing Paper on the same topic published in January 2016. The main up-dates relate to Life Expectancy at birth as figures for this are produced on an annual basis. However, figures on Healthy Life Expectancy at local authority level rely on data collected in the Census and are therefore produced on a much more infrequent basis. These figures have therefore not been up-dated at a local authority area (although figures for Healthy Life Expectancy at Scotland level have been up- dated).

The data in this paper comes primarily from National Records of Scotland (NRS) and the Scottish Public Health Observatory (ScotPHO). This paper presents a brief overview of the estimated Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy at birth for males and females in Aberdeen City. It compares Aberdeen City to other local authority areas and to Scotland. It also looks at how Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy have changed over time as well as the relationship between these and deprivation. The paper also looks at Life Expectancy at birth for intermediate zones in Aberdeen City and gives information on Life Expectancy at age 65 years.

For more information on these issues, please contact: Research and Information Team Office of Chief Executive Aberdeen City Council 1st Floor, Old Town House Broad Street Aberdeen AB10 1FY  01224 523322  [email protected]

Other briefing papers in this series have included the following topics:  2014-Based Population Projections – Aberdeen City  Migration Report, Aberdeen City  Population Report, Aberdeen City and Shire

These papers, and other statistical reports, can be found in the ‘Stats and Facts’ section of the Aberdeen City Council website: www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/statsandfacts

We value your comments/feedback and would appreciate if you could provide your comments on this paper by clicking the following link: https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/research-feedback-form

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Summary

 Life expectancy at birth is higher for women than for men.  In Aberdeen City (2013-2015), life expectancy at birth for women was 80.9 years and for men it was 76.6 years. These figures are slightly lower than Scottish averages of 81.1 years for women and 77.1 years for men.  In Aberdeen City, life expectancy has increased for both men and women over the past 12 years. The increase has been higher for men (2.5 years) than for women (1.0 year).  However, rates of increase have been lower in Aberdeen City than for most other local authority areas. As a result, Aberdeen’s position relative to other council areas has worsened in the past 12 years – dropping from 17th to 24th in the rankings for males and from 11th to 20th for females.  Life expectancy is strongly associated with deprivation. In Aberdeen City, life expectancy at birth was 71.4 years for men in the 15% most deprived areas of the city compared to 77.7 years for men in the 85% least deprived areas. For women, the respective figures were 77.9 years and 81.6 years.  There are substantial variations in life expectancy estimates in different areas of Aberdeen City (based on Intermediate Zones). For males, life expectancy at birth ranges from a low of 68.2 years in Woodside to a high of 84.9 years in Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill & Seafield – a difference of 16.7 years. For females it ranges from a low of 74.9 years in Woodside to a high of 87.0 years in Balgownie and Donmouth East – a difference of 12.1 years.

 Healthy life expectancy at birth is higher for women than for men.  In Aberdeen City, males born in the period 2009-2013 had a life expectancy at birth of 76.9 years and a healthy life expectancy of 65.0 years, giving an expected period of ‘not healthy’ health of 11.9 years. For women, the figures were 81.2 years and 67.4 years, giving an expected period of ‘not healthy’ health of 13.8 years.  Compared to other local authority areas, healthy life expectancy in Aberdeen City ranks slightly above mid-point – ranking 15th (out of 32) for males and 14th for females.  Lack of comparable data means that it is not possible to look at changes over time in healthy life expectancy for local authority areas. Data for Scotland, however, shows that healthy life expectancy has increased over time (1980-2008) for both males and females. The corresponding increase in life expectancy, however, means that the percentage of life expected to be in ‘healthy’ health has remained constant at around 90% for males and 88% for females.  As with life expectancy, healthy life expectancy is strongly associated with deprivation. In Scotland, for both males and females, healthy life expectancy decreased with increasing deprivation, and length of time in ‘not healthy’ health increased with increasing deprivation. Additionally, the gap between men and women also increased with increasing deprivation.

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1. Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy (LE) at birth is an estimate of the average number of years a new-born baby would survive if he/she experienced an area’s age specific mortality rates throughout his/her life. It provides a useful summary measure of mortality rates experienced across a population at a particular point in time. National Records of Scotland (NRS) produces life expectancy estimates for Scottish council areas. The estimates are based on the mortality probabilities indicated by the death records for the three years prior to the date of publication. The most recent estimates were published on 29th November 2016 (based on 2013-2015).

1.1. Life Expectancy at Birth In general, LE at birth is higher for women than for men. In Aberdeen City LE at birth is estimated to be 80.9 years for women and 76.6 years for men, i.e. a baby girl born in Aberdeen City in 2013-2015 could expect to live for 80.9 years while a baby boy born in Aberdeen City in the same period could expect to live for 76.6 years. The estimated LE at birth for both females and males in Aberdeen City is slightly below the corresponding estimates for Scotland of 81.1 years and 77.1 years (see Table 1.1 below).

Table 1.1: Life expectancy at birth, males and females, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2013- 2015 Male Female

Life Lower Upper Life Lower Upper expectancy CI CI expectancy CI CI Years Years Years Years Years Years Aberdeen City 76.6 76.1 77.0 80.9 80.5 81.4

Scotland 77.1 77.0 77.2 81.1 81.0 81.2 Source: National Records of Scotland, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by- theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish-areas/2013-2015/list-of-figures CI = confidence interval (95%)

Note: It should be remembered that life expectancy is an estimate – and as such is subject to a margin of error. The accuracy of the results is indicated by calculating a 95% confidence interval (CI) – the true underlying life expectancy lies within its upper and lower limits with 95% probability. So, looking at lower and upper CI limits for females in Aberdeen City, true life expectancy for baby girls born in 2013-2015 lies between 80.5 years and 81.4 years.

Life expectancy estimates for different areas or different groups can be said to be significantly different if their confidence intervals do not overlap. Therefore, looking at the above table, as the upper and lower CI limits for male and female life expectancy do not overlap, it can be said that female life expectancy is significantly higher than male life expectancy. Using the CIs to compare Aberdeen City and Scotland, it can be seen that while estimated life expectancy is lower in Aberdeen City than Scotland for both males and females, this difference is not statistically significant (i.e. the confidence intervals do overlap).

It is also worth noting that life expectancy results, particularly in smaller areas, can be affected by random variation in the annual number of deaths.

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1.2. Comparison with other local authorities

Males: LE at birth ranged from a low of 73.4 years in Glasgow City to a high of 80.5 years in East Dunbartonshire – a difference of 7.1 years. At 76.6 years, Aberdeen City has the 9th lowest estimated LE at birth of all local authorities in Scotland.

Females: LE at birth ranged from a low of 78.7 years in West Dunbartonshire to a high of 83.5 years in East Dunbartonshire – a difference of 4.8 years. At 80.9 years, Aberdeen City has the 13th lowest estimated LE at birth of all local authorities in Scotland.

Figure 1.1 shows LE at birth for males and females for all of Scotland’s local authority areas, highlighting the difference in LE at birth for males and females and also the differences between council areas. Average LE estimates for Scotland are also included. The areas are ordered by female LE at birth.

Figure 1.1: Life Expectancy at birth for males and females by local authority area, Scotland, 2013-2015. 86

Years 76

Males Females

A full table detailing estimated LE at birth and their 95% Confidence Intervals for each local authority is given in Appendix 1.

1.3. Changes over time Figure 1.2 shows LE at birth for males and females in Aberdeen City and Scotland over the period from 2001-2003 to 2013-2015.

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Figure 1.2: Life expectancy at birth for males and females, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 2001-2003 to 2013-2015 82.0

80.0

78.0

76.0 Years 74.0

72.0

70.0

Males - Aberdeen Females - Aberdeen Males - Scotland Females - Scotland

Source: National Records of Scotland, Life expectancy for administrative areas within Scotland, Time series data, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish- areas/time-series-data

As can be seen from the above chart, life expectancy at birth has increased in all groups over the 12-year period. For males, estimated life expectancy rose from 74.1 years to 76.6 years in Aberdeen City (an increase of 3.3% over the period) and from 73.5 years to 77.1 years in Scotland (an increase of 4.9%). For females the increase was less pronounced than for males, with estimated life expectancy increasing from 80.0 years to 80.9 years in Aberdeen City (1.2% increase) and from 78.8 years to 80.1 years in Scotland (2.9% increase). The lower rate of increase for females compared to males has resulted in a slight closing of the gap between male and female life expectancy at birth, from 5.9 years in 2001-2003 to 4.3 years in 2013- 2015 for Aberdeen City and from 5.3 years in 2001-2003 to 3.0 years in 2013-2015 for Scotland as a whole.

For most of the 12-year period, both male and female life expectancy at birth has been slightly higher in Aberdeen City than in Scotland. However, in contrast with the continuing upward trend for Scotland as a whole, in Aberdeen City recent estimates for LE at birth have dropped slightly – from 77.0 years in 2011-2013 to 76.6 years in 2013-2015 for males and from 81.2 years in 2011-2013 to 80.9 years in 2013-2015 for females. While this is a relatively small drop (and not statistically significant), it does mean that current estimated LE is now slightly lower in Aberdeen City than in Scotland for both males and females.

Local authorities: Life expectancy at birth increased for both males and females in all local authorities in Scotland over the 12-year period from 2001-2003 to 2013-2015. In general the increase was higher for males than females (the only exception being Midlothian where the increase in life expectancy was higher in females than in males).

The rates of increase (i.e. the percentage change over the 12-year period) varied by local authority. In Aberdeen City the rate of increase in life expectancy was lower than the average increase for Scotland (3.3% compared to 4.9% for males and 1.2% compared to 2.9% for females) and for both males and females the rates of increase were the lowest across all local

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authorities in Scotland. As a result, Aberdeen City’s position relative to other council areas in relation to estimated life expectancy has worsened in the last 12 years, dropping from 17th to 24th in the rankings for males and from 11th to 20th for females. Table 1.2 shows the estimated LE at birth for Aberdeen City and selected local authorities (top and bottom ranking for males and females) for 2001-2003 and for 2013-2015. The table also shows the actual change in years as well as the percentage change. Full details of life expectancy at birth in Scotland by local authority area and comparisons with 2001-2003 and 2012-2014 are given in Appendix 2a (males) and Appendix 2b (females).

Table 1.2: Estimated life expectancy at birth for males and females, Aberdeen City and comparator local authorities, 2001-2003 and 2013-2015 1 Life Expectancy at Birth Change over 12 4 Council Area 2001-2003 2013-2015 years Years2 Rank3 Years2 Rank3 Years % East Dunbartonshire 77.1 1 80.5 1 3.4 4.4

Perth and Kinross 75.9 4 79.8 2 3.8 5.0

East Renfrewshire 75.9 3 79.3 3 3.3 4.4

Aberdeen City 74.1 17 76.6 24 2.4 3.3 Males Dundee City 71.9 27 75.1 30 3.2 4.4

West Dunbartonshire 70.8 30 74.8 31 4.0 5.6

Glasgow City 69.0 32 73.4 32 4.3 6.3

Scotland 73.5 - 77.1 - 3.6 4.9

East Dunbartonshire 80.4 5 83.5 1 3.1 3.9

East Renfrewshire 81.1 1 83.4 2 2.4 2.9

Na h-Eileanan Siar 79.7 13 82.9 3 3.2 4.0

Aberdeen City 80.0 11 80.9 20 1.0 1.2 Females East Ayrshire 77.9 26 79.4 30 1.5 1.9

Glasgow City 76.4 32 78.8 31 2.5 3.2

West Dunbartonshire 77.4 30 78.7 32 1.3 1.7

Scotland 78.8 - 81.1 - 2.3 2.9

Source: National Records Scotland, Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland 2013-2015, Available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish- areas/2013-2015/list-of-tables 1The estimates are based on mortality probabilities indicated by the death records for the 3 years of the time period. 2The results may vary from year to year, particularly those based on small populations. 3Rank out of 32 local authority areas (high to low). 4Figures may not sum due to rounding.

1.4. Life Expectancy by level of deprivation

Life expectancy is strongly associated with level of deprivation. Using figures for the period 2011-2015, NRS have produced estimates of LE at birth by level of deprivation based on the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2016. Data zones in Aberdeen City were ordered by SIMD rank (from most to least deprived), with the top 15% then being assigned as

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Aberdeen City’s 15% most deprived areas and the remaining 85% being assigned as Aberdeen City’s 85% least deprived areas.

In Aberdeen City there was a significant difference in estimated life expectancy by level of deprivation. Life expectancy for men in the 15% most deprived areas was 71.4 years compared to 77.7 years for men in the 85% least deprived areas – a difference of 6.3 years. For women, the difference in estimated life expectancy was less marked, at 77.9 years for women in the 15% most deprived areas, and 81.6 years for women in the least deprived 85% - a difference of 3.7 years. See Table 1.3.

Table 1.3: Estimated life expectancy at birth in Aberdeen City for males and females, 2011- 2015, by deprivation (SIMD 2016)

Life Expectancy at 95% Confidence birth interval

Years Years Most deprived 15% 71.4 (70.4 to 72.3) Males Least deprived 85% 77.7 (77.3 to 78.1) Overall 76.6 (76.1 to 77.0)

Most deprived 15% 77.9 (77.0 to 78.8) Females Least deprived 85% 81.6 (81.2 to 82.0) Overall 80.9 (80.5 to 81.4) Source: National Records of Scotland, Available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by- theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish-areas/life-expectancy-in-scottish-council-areas-split-by-deprivation/2011-15

1.5. Life Expectancy at birth by intermediate zone 2009-2013

Estimates of life expectancy by intermediate zone (2006-base) are available on ScotPHO. The most recent figures relate to data from 2009-2013 (5-year average).

For both males and females there are important differences in estimated life expectancy at birth depending on where you live in Aberdeen City. For males, estimated LE at birth ranges from a low of 68.2 years in Woodside to a high of 84.9 years in Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill & Seafield – a difference of 16.7 years. For females it ranges from a low of 74.9 years in Woodside to a high of 87.0 years in Balgownie and Donmouth East – a difference of 12.1 years.

Figure 1.3 shows estimated LE at birth by intermediate zones for males and females (ordered by female LE). Consistent with the pattern in Aberdeen City as a whole, in almost all intermediate zones, estimated LE at birth is higher for females than males – the only exception being West End North where LE is 82.7 years for both males and females. However, the difference in male and female estimated life expectancy varies quite markedly between intermediate zones, ranging from no difference in West End North to a difference of 9.8 years in City Centre. As a result, the ranking of intermediate zones (i.e. from low to high estimated LE) differs for males and females. Full details of estimated life expectancy,

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including 95% Confidence Intervals, for all intermediate zones in Aberdeen City are given in Appendix 3.

Figure 1.3: Estimated life expectancy at birth for males and females, intermediate zones, Aberdeen City, 2009-2013

Male Female

Years 70

Dyce

Hilton Culter

Seaton

Hanover

Mastrick

Ashgrove

Denmore

Garthdee

Tillydrone

Torry Torry East

Kingswells

Stockethill

Hazlehead

Danestone

Torry Torry West

Midstocket

CoveSouth

CoveNorth

Summerhill

Rosemount

Sheddocksley

Old AberdeenOld

George Street George

Ferryhill South Ferryhill

Ferryhill North Ferryhill

Cummings Park Cummings

OldmacharEast

West End SouthEnd West

West End North End West

OldmacharWest

Bucksburn South Bucksburn

Bucksburn North Bucksburn

Woodside (Aberdeen) Woodside

Northfield (Aberdeen) Northfield

City Centre (Aberdeen) Centre City

Heathryfold and Middlefield and Heathryfold

Balgownie and Donmouth East and Donmouth Balgownie

Froghall, Powis andSunnybank Powis Froghall,

Balgownie and Donmouth West and Donmouth Balgownie

Kincorth, Leggart and Nigg Nigg Leggart South and Kincorth,

Kincorth, Leggart and Nigg Nigg Leggart North and Kincorth,

Cults, Bieldside and Milltimber East andBieldsideMilltimber Cults,

Cults, Bieldside and Milltimber West andBieldsideMilltimber Cults,

Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill and… Mannofield,Broomhill Braeside, and… Mannofield,Broomhill Braeside, and… Mannofield,Broomhill Braeside,

Source: ScotPHO Health and Wellbeing Profiles, https://scotpho.nhsnss.scot.nhs.uk/scotpho/spineChartAction.do#

Although we know that overall estimated LE at birth in Aberdeen City has risen in the last 12 years, it is not clear how this has translated into the different areas of the city, e.g. whether the gap between intermediate zones has remained relatively static, or whether it has increased or decreased over this period. While it is not possible to undertake a direct comparison due to differences in how life expectancy is calculated in intermediate zones (5- year average) and local authority areas (3-year average), it is possible to compare the most recent intermediate zone data (2009-2013) with intermediate zone data from 2003-2007.

Comparison of data between these periods suggests that the increase seen in the city as a whole is not consistent across all areas. For example, estimated life expectancy has increased more in some intermediate zones than others. In other intermediate zones life expectancy has actually decreased in the period. There are also gender differences in the patterning of the changes (e.g. increase for males but decrease for females or vice versa). The outcome of this inconsistency is that between 2003-2007 and 2009-2013 the gap between ‘highest’ and ‘lowest’ intermediate zones has increased for both males and females – from 13.7 years to 16.7 years for males and from 10 years to 12.1 years for females. Full details of these figures are presented in Appendix 4, however, to illustrate the variability of changes in estimated life expectancy across different areas of the city, Figure 1.4 shows the difference in life expectancy estimates between 2003-2007 and 2009-2013 for males and females for intermediate zones in Aberdeen City (with the exception of Cove South, Oldmachar East and Denmore due to lack of data for 2003-2007).

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Figure 1.4: Difference in life expectancy estimates for males and females, intermediate zones, Aberdeen City, comparison of data from 2003-2007 and 2009-2013

Male Female

Years 0

-2

-4

-6

Dyce

Culter Hilton

Seaton

Hanover

Mastrick

Ashgrove

Garthdee

Tillydrone

Torry Torry East

Kingswells

Stockethill

Hazlehead

Danestone

Torry Torry West

Midstocket

CoveNorth

Summerhill

Rosemount

Sheddocksley

Old AberdeenOld

George Street George

Ferryhill South Ferryhill

Ferryhill North Ferryhill

Cummings Park Cummings

West End SouthEnd West

West End North End West

OldmacharWest

Bucksburn South Bucksburn

Bucksburn North Bucksburn

Woodside (Aberdeen) Woodside

Northfield (Aberdeen) Northfield

City Centre (Aberdeen) Centre City

Heathryfold and Middlefield and Heathryfold

Balgownie and Donmouth East and Donmouth Balgownie

Froghall, Powis andSunnybank Powis Froghall,

Balgownie and Donmouth West and Donmouth Balgownie

Kincorth, Leggart and Nigg Nigg Leggart South and Kincorth,

Kincorth, Leggart and Nigg Nigg Leggart North and Kincorth,

Cults, Bieldside and Milltimber East andBieldsideMilltimber Cults,

Cults, Bieldside and Milltimber West andBieldsideMilltimber Cults,

Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill and… Mannofield,Broomhill Braeside, and… Mannofield,Broomhill Braeside, Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill and… Mannofield,Broomhill Braeside, Source: Data for 2009-2013 from ScotPHO health and wellbeing profile, available at: https://scotpho.nhsnss.scot.nhs.uk/scotpho/profileSelectAction.do Data for 2003-2007 from National Records of Scotland, Life Expectancy in Intermediate Zones 2003-2007, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish- areas/archive/life-expectancy-in-internediate-zones/2003-2007

1.6. Estimated life expectancy at age 65 years, 2013-2015

NRS also produce estimates of life expectancy for 65 year olds (i.e. how long a person aged 65 years could expect to live). Estimated life expectancy for 65 year-old men in Aberdeen City is 16.9 years, slightly lower than the average for Scotland of 17.3 years. Estimated life expectancy for 65 year-old women in Aberdeen City is 19.6 years – 2.7 years higher than the figure for men, but again slightly lower than the average for Scotland of 19.7 years.

Comparison with local authorities: Estimated life expectancy at 65 years ranges from a low of 15.2 years for Glasgow City to a high of 19.3 years in East Dunbartonshire for males, and from 18.2 years in Glasgow City to 21.3 years in East Renfrewshire for women. As with estimates for life expectancy at birth, Aberdeen City ranks lower than most local authorities in Scotland – ranking 26th (out of 32) for males and 20th (out of 32) for females. Figure 1.5 shows estimated life expectancy at 65 years for all local authorities in Scotland for men and women (ordered by female life expectancy). Appendix 5 gives figures for all local authorities.

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Figure 1.5: Life expectancy at age 65 years by local authority area, Scotland, 2013-2015

Years 10 Male Female 5

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2. Healthy Life Expectancy

While Life Expectancy (LE) counts total years of expected life regardless of level of health, Healthy Life Expectancy (HLE) represents the number of years that an individual can expect to live in good health. HLE is calculated by combining Life Expectancy and a measure of ‘healthy health’, such as self-assessed general health (using survey or census data). HLE provides a single summary measure of a population’s health which takes account of the population’s health status and death rates at different ages. It can be used to look at health trends over time and may be helpful in resource allocation as well as planning of health and other services.

Information on HLE is available from the Scottish Public Health Observatory (ScotPHO). While HLE at a national level is published yearly using self-assessed health measures from household surveys (the Scottish Household Survey from 2009), these surveys are not robust enough to provide HLE estimates at smaller levels. Information on HLE at local authority level uses self- assessed health from the Census and is therefore available on a much less frequent basis. In December 2015 ScotPHO published HLE estimates at local authority level using self-assessed health from the 2011 Census. These are for the 5-year period 2009-2013 and are calculated separately for males and females. (Note: HLE is generally presented in relation to LE. The LE estimates given below cover a different time period to those in the previous section and therefore will not match exactly).

2.1. Healthy Life Expectancy at birth

Table 2.1 gives Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy for Aberdeen City and Scotland. For the period 2009-2013, males in Aberdeen City had a LE at birth of 76.9 years and a HLE of 65.0 years, giving an expected period of ‘not healthy’ health of 11.9 years. For women in Aberdeen City, life expectancy at birth was 81.2 years and healthy life expectancy was 67.4 years, giving an expected period of ‘not healthy’ health of 13.8 years. So while women have a higher life expectancy, they also experience a longer time in ‘not healthy’ health than men. This pattern is consistent with Scotland as a whole – although both LE and HLE are slightly higher in Aberdeen City than in Scotland for both males and females. In Scotland men have an expected period of ‘not healthy’ health of 13.5 years. For women the figure is 15.6 years.

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Table 2.1: Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy at birth in years, males and females, Aberdeen City and Scotland, 5-year period 2009-2013 Healthy Life Expectancy at Life Expectancy at birth birth Expected period in 95% 95% 'not healthy' health Years Confidence Years Confidence (years) Intervals Intervals

Aberdeen City Male 76.9 76.5 to 77.2 65.0 64.8 to 65.1 11.9 Female 81.2 80.9 to 81.6 67.4 67.3 to 67.6 13.8

Scotland Male 76.6 76.5 to 76.7 63.1 63.1 to 63.2 13.5 Female 80.8 80.8 to 80.9 65.3 65.2 to 65.3 15.6 Source: ScotPHO, Available at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/data/local-authorities

2.2. Comparison with other local authorities

Males: LE and HLE levels vary considerably across local authority areas. LE at birth is highest in East Dunbartonshire (80.3 years) and lowest in Glasgow City (72.6 years). Similarly, HLE at birth ranges from a low of 55.9 years in Glasgow City to a high of 68.3 years in East Dunbartonshire. This means that a baby boy born in Glasgow during 2009-2013 would be expected to live in a healthy state for 12.4 years less than a baby boy born during the same period in East Dunbartonshire.

The local authority area with the shortest expected period of ‘not healthy’ health for men is Aberdeenshire at 10.8 years, with men in Glasgow expected to experience the longest period of ‘not healthy’ health at 16.7 years.

Figure 2.1 below shows LE and HLE at birth by local authority area for males. As can be seen from the chart, there is greater variation across local authority areas by HLE than LE. Looking only at HLE, Aberdeen City ranks slightly above the mid-point (15th highest) when compared to other local authority areas. Aberdeenshire, along with Perth and Kinross and the Orkney Islands, ranks second highest (68.1 years).

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Figure 2.1: Life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HLE) at birth for males by local authority area, Scotland, 5-year period 2009-2013

LE (95% confidence intervals shown as error bars) HLE (95% confidence intervals shown as error bars) 90

LE LE HLE or(years) 50

Fife

Angus

Falkirk

Moray

Stirling

Highland

Eilean Siar Eilean

Inverclyde

SCOTLAND

Midlothian

East Lothian East

Dundee City Dundee

Glasgow City Glasgow

East Ayrshire East

Argyll & Bute & Argyll

West Lothian West

Renfrewshire

Aberdeen City Aberdeen

Edinburgh City Edinburgh

Orkney Islands Orkney

South Ayrshire South

North Ayrshire North

Aberdeenshire

Perth &Kinross Perth

Shetland Islands Shetland

Scottish Borders Scottish

South Lanarkshire South

North Lanarkshire North

East Renfrewshire East

Clackmannanshire

East Dunbartonshire East Dumfries & Galloway & Dumfries West Dunbartonshire West local authority

Source: ScotPHO, Available at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/data/local-authorities

Females: The pattern for females was similar to that for males, although estimates of LE and HLE were consistently higher for women than for men in each of the local authority areas. LE at birth ranged from a low of 78.4 years in Glasgow City to a high of 83.4 years in East Dunbartonshire. Glasgow City was also the local authority area with the lowest HLE at birth at 58.5 years. However, the highest HLE for women was in the Orkney Islands at 71.0 years. This means that a baby girl born in Glasgow during 2009-2013 would be expected to live in a healthy state for 12.5 years less than a baby girl born in Orkney.

Orkney was the local authority with the shortest expected period in ‘not healthy’ health at 11.0 years, while women in Glasgow City had the longest expected period in ‘not healthy’ health at 20.0 years.

Figure 2.2 shows LE and HLE at birth by local authority area for females. Again there seems to be slightly more variation in HLE than LE. Looking only at HLE, ranking for females in Aberdeen City is similar to males - positioned slightly above the mid-point (14th highest) when compared to other local authority areas. Aberdeenshire ranked third highest (69.7 years) among all local authority areas.

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Figure 2.2: Life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HLE) at birth for females by local authority area, Scotland, 5-year period 2009-2013 LE (95% confidence intervals shown as error bars) HLE (95% confidence intervals shown as error bars)

LE LE HLE or(years) 50

Fife

Angus

Falkirk

Moray

Stirling

Highland

Eilean Siar Eilean

Inverclyde

SCOTLAND

Midlothian

East Lothian East

Dundee City Dundee

Glasgow City Glasgow

East Ayrshire East

Argyll & Bute & Argyll

West Lothian West

Renfrewshire

Aberdeen City Aberdeen

Edinburgh City Edinburgh

Orkney Islands Orkney

South Ayrshire South

North Ayrshire North

Aberdeenshire

Perth & Kinross & Perth

Shetland Islands Shetland

Scottish Borders Scottish

South Lanarkshire South

North Lanarkshire North

East Renfrewshire East

Clackmannanshire

East Dunbartonshire East Dumfries & Galloway & Dumfries West Dunbartonshire West local authority

Source: ScotPHO, Available at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/data/local-authorities

2.3. Changes over time

Unfortunately it is not possible to look at HLE changes over time at a local authority level. Due to a change in the question for self-assessed health in the Census, HLE estimates using 2011 Census data are not comparable to HLE estimates using data from the 2001 Census. It is, however, possible to look at changes over time in Scotland (on a yearly basis from 1980-2015), allowing us to see broader patterns for LE and HLE. A change to the self-assessed health question in the Scottish Household Survey in 2009 means that HLE estimates from 2009 onwards cannot be directly compared to those in previous years. Figures 2.3 and 2.4 show LE and HLE for males and females respectively, from 1980 to 2015. (Note: from 2014, LE and HLE were calculated using an upper age limit of 90+ (previous years' estimates were calculated using an upper age limit of 85+), and corrected mid-year population estimates (MYE) for 2014. Therefore, any difference could be due to a combination of the MYE correction and the life expectancy method change.)

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Figure 2.3: Life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HLE) at birth, Scotland: males 1-year periods 1980 to 2015, and 5-year periods 1999-2003 and 2009-2013 LE (1-year period) LE (5-year period 1999-2003/2009-2013) 82 HLE (1-year period, using survey SAH). New methodology from 2009. HLE (5-year period 1999-2003/2009-2013, using Census SAH) 80 95% confidence interval 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64

62 LE or HLE (years) HLE or LE 60

1980 1994 2008 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Source: ScotPHO, available at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/data/scotland

Figure 2.4: Life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HLE) at birth, Scotland: females 1-year periods 1980 to 2015, and 5-year periods 1999-2003 and 2009-2013

82 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 LE or HLE (years) HLE or LE LE (1-year period) 62 LE (5-year period 1999-2003/2009-2013) HLE (1-year period, using survey SAH). New methodology from 2009. 60 HLE (5-year period 1999-2003/2009-2013, using Census SAH) 95% confidence interval

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Source: ScotPHO, available at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/data/scotland

Life Expectancy at birth, males and females: As can be seen in the above charts, estimates of LE at birth have increased for both males and females since 1980. Male LE at birth increased from 68.7 years in 1980 to 76.9 years in 2015 – an increase of 8.2 years over the period (see Figure 2.3). Female LE at birth increased from 75.1 years in 1980 to 81.0 years in 2014 – an increase of 5.9 years (see Figure 2.4). Although LE estimates have increased more for men than for women, LE has consistently been higher for women than for men. However, the gap between them has lessened over the period - from 6.4 years in 1980 to 4.1 years in 2014.

Healthy Life Expectancy, males (Figure 2.3): while there were fluctuations in the period from 1980 to 2008, overall the trend for HLE was upwards, increasing from 62.6 years in 1980 to 68.1 years in 2008 – an increase of 5.5 years. However, as can be seen in Figure 2.3, the gap between LE and HLE widened during this period – indicating that an average man would be expected to experience a longer period of ‘not healthy’ health (7.3 years) if born in 2008, than

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a man born in 1980 (6.2 years). However, as LE was also increasing, the percentage of life expected to be in ‘healthy’ health remained fairly consistent (at around 90%) over the period. Following the change to the self-assessed health question in 2009, HLE for males was estimated to be 60.0 years in 2009. There is no significant difference in HLE at birth for males born in 2009 and those born in 2015 (59.9 years). The gap between LE and HLE increased slightly in this period from 15.9 years to 17.1 years, however, the percentage of life expected to be spent in healthy health decreased slightly from 79.0% in 2009 to 77.8% in 2015 (i.e. males could expect to live a slightly larger proportion of their lives in ‘not healthy health’). Figure 2.3 also includes the HLE at birth estimate for the 5-year period 2009-2013 (based on self-assessed health from the 2011 Census). At 63.1 years, this is higher than the single year estimate (60.4 years) for 2011 (based on survey data). Given its much larger sample size the HLE estimate based on Census data is likely to be more accurate than the single-year estimate based on survey data. Healthy Life Expectancy, females (Figure 2.4): as with males, although variable, the overall trend for HLE at birth for females was upwards – increasing from 65.9 years in 1980 to 70.8 years in 2008 – an increase of 4.9 years in the period. Unlike men, however, the gap between LE and HLE for women remained fairly constant at around 9 years (9.1 years in 1980 and 9.2 years in 2008) for the duration of the period, with the percentage of life expected to be in ‘healthy’ health also fairly constant at around 88%. Following the change to the self-assessed health question in 2009, HLE for females was estimated to be 62.2 years in 2009. There is no significant difference in HLE at birth for females born in 2009 and those born in 2015 (62.3 years). The gap between LE and HLE has been fairly consistent in this period (at around 18.7%) as has the percent of life expected to be in healthy health at 76.9%. The HLE at birth estimate for the 5-year period 2009-2013 was 65.3 years. Again, this Census- based figure is higher than the single-year estimate for 2011 which was 62.0 years, and is likely to be the more accurate of the two HLE estimates.

2.4. Deprivation

Estimates of LE and HLE at birth by deprivation (SIMD quintiles) are available for Scotland for the 5-year period 2009-2013 (based on self-assessed health from 2011 Census). Males: as could be expected, LE expectancy at birth decreased steadily from least deprived (81.4 years) to most deprived (71.1 years) quintiles – a difference of 10.3 years. There was a similar pattern for HLE at birth. However, the difference between least (71.5 years) and most (53.4 years) deprived quintiles was much greater at 18.1 years. The expected period of ‘not healthy’ health increased with increasing deprivation, ranging from 9.9 years in the least deprived quintile to 17.7 years in the most deprived quintile. Figure 2.5 shows LE and HLE at birth by deprivation quintile for Scotland for the 5-year period 2009-2013.

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Figure 2.5: Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy at birth by deprivation quintile in Scotland, males, 5-year period 2009-2013 100

LE LE HLE or(Years) 20

0 SIMD 5 (least SIMD 4 SIMD 3 SIMD 2 SIMD 1 (most deprived) deprived)

LE HLE

Source: ScotPHO, Available at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/data/deprivation- quintiles

Females: as with males, LE at birth decreased steadily from the least to most deprived quintiles. In 2009-2013, LE at birth was 84.1 years for a woman in the least deprived quintile, compared to 77.1 years for a woman in the most deprived quintile – a difference of 7 years. HLE also decreased with increasing deprivation (Figure 2.6). Women in the least deprived quintile had a HLE of 72.9 years compared to 56.1 years for a woman in the most deprived quintile – a difference of 16.8 years. The length of time a woman could expect to spend in ‘not healthy’ health ranged from 11.3 years for a woman in the least deprived quintile to 21.0 years in the most deprived quintile. Another way of saying this is that a woman in the least deprived quintile could expect to live 86.7% of her life in ‘healthy’ health compared to a woman in the most deprived quintile who could expect to live 72.8% in ‘healthy’ health. Figure 2.6: Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy at birth by deprivation quintile in Scotland, females, 5-year period 2009-2013 90 80 70 60 50 40 30

LE LE HLE or(Years) 20 10 0 SIMD 5 (least SIMD 4 SIMD 3 SIMD 2 SIMD 1 (most deprived) deprived)

LE HLE

Source: ScotPHO, Available at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/data/deprivation- quintiles Males and Females: overall, there was a similar pattern for men and women. For both, LE at birth and HLE at birth decreased with increasing deprivation, and expected length of time in ‘unhealthy’ health increased with increasing deprivation.

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Similarly, and consistent with overall patterning for LE at birth and HLE at birth, in all deprivation quintiles, LE and HLE estimates were higher in women than in men. Interestingly, however, the gap between men and women also increased with increasing deprivation. The gap in LE at birth between men and women increased from 2.7 years in the least deprived quintile, to 6.0 years in the most deprived quintile (Figure 2.7). For HLE at birth (Figure 2.8) the gap between males and females is smaller, however, there was still a doubling between least and most deprived quintiles with the gap going from 1.4 years to 2.8 years. Figure 2.7: Life Expectancy at birth by deprivation quintile, males and females, Scotland, 5- year period 2009-2013 90

LE LE (years) 70

60 SIMD 5 (least SIMD 4 SIMD 3 SIMD 2 SIMD 1 (most deprived) deprived)

LE Male LE Female

Source: ScotPHO, Available at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/data/deprivation-quintiles

Figure 2.8: Healthy Life Expectancy at birth by deprivation quintile, males and females, Scotland, 5-year period 2009-2013 80 70

50 40

30 HLE HLE (years) 20 10 0 SIMD 5 (least SIMD 4 SIMD 3 SIMD 2 SIMD 1 (most deprived) deprived)

HLE Male HLE Female

Source: ScotPHO, Available at: http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/data/deprivation-quintiles

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3. Summary and conclusion

Overall, estimates of LE and HLE in Aberdeen City are broadly in line with the average figures for Scotland as a whole, with LE at birth slightly below Scottish averages and HLE being slightly higher than average.

In Scotland (as in Western Europe), women generally outlive men by several years. In Aberdeen City estimated LE for a baby boy born in 2013-2015 was 76.6 years and for a baby girl it was 80.9 years. Although estimated LE at birth has increased for both males and females over the past 12 years, this increase has been higher in males, with the result that the gap in LE at birth between males and females has narrowed. Again this is consistent with Scotland as a whole. An issue of note, however, is the fact that the rate of growth in LE over the past 12 years has been lower in Aberdeen City than in all other local authority areas. This has resulted in Aberdeen City falling in the local authority ‘rankings’ in relation to estimated LE at birth for both men and women.

Women also have a higher HLE than men. In Aberdeen City, HLE at birth for a baby boy born in 2009-2013 was 65.0 years and for a baby girl born in the same period it was 67.4 years. However, while females have a higher HLE than males, they also have a longer period of ‘not healthy’ health than men. On average, a man in Aberdeen City can expect a period of nearly 12 years of ‘not healthy’ health, while a woman can expect a period of almost 14 years of ‘not healthy’ health.

However, the strong association between both LE and HLE and deprivation means that it is likely that both LE and HLE will differ substantially for men and women living in different parts of Aberdeen City. Those living in more deprived areas are likely to have not only a lower LE at birth, but also a longer period of ‘not healthy’ health than those living in the less deprived areas. If consistent with Scottish rates, men and women in the most deprived areas of the city could expect to live approximately a quarter of their lives in ‘not healthy’ health – double the period of those in the least deprived areas of the city.

Time spent in ‘not healthy’ health will tend to occur towards the end of life, although some people will experience ‘not healthy’ health in earlier years. While it is important to improve LE at birth, increasing HLE and reducing the time spent in ‘not healthy’ health is also important – not only for individual health, but also in terms of use of healthcare and other resources. Understanding patterns of LE and HLE can be useful in planning resource allocation for health and other services.

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Appendix 1: Estimated life expectancy at birth for males and females by local authority area, Scotland, 2013-2015 Males Females Life Life Lower CI Upper CI Lower CI Upper CI expectancy expectancy Years Years Years Years Years Years Aberdeen City Council 76.6 76.1 77.0 80.9 80.5 81.4 Aberdeenshire Council 79.2 78.7 79.6 82.2 81.9 82.6 Angus Council 78.6 77.9 79.2 81.9 81.3 82.5 Argyll and Bute Council 78.2 77.5 78.9 82.2 81.6 82.9 City of Edinburgh Council 78.0 77.6 78.3 82.2 81.9 82.5 Clackmannanshire 76.9 76.0 77.9 80.1 79.2 81.0 Dumfries and Galloway Council 78.1 77.6 78.7 81.3 80.8 81.9 Dundee City Council 75.1 74.5 75.7 80.1 79.5 80.6 East Ayrshire Council 76.1 75.4 76.8 79.4 78.8 80.0 East Dunbartonshire Council 80.5 79.8 81.1 83.5 83.0 84.1 East Lothian Council 78.4 77.8 79.1 82.5 81.9 83.1 East Renfrewshire Council 79.3 78.5 80.0 83.4 82.8 84.1 Falkirk Council 77.4 76.9 78.0 80.9 80.4 81.4 Fife Council 77.7 77.3 78.0 81.5 81.1 81.8 Glasgow City Council 73.4 73.1 73.6 78.8 78.6 79.1 Highland Council 77.9 77.4 78.3 82.6 82.2 83.0 Inverclyde Council 75.4 74.7 76.2 80.4 79.7 81.1 Midlothian Council 77.3 76.6 78.1 81.5 80.8 82.1 Moray Council 78.7 78.1 79.4 81.7 81.0 82.4 Na h-Eileanan Siar Council 76.7 75.4 78.1 82.9 81.8 84.0 North Ayrshire Council 76.1 75.5 76.7 80.8 80.3 81.3 North Lanarkshire Council 75.3 75.0 75.7 79.6 79.2 79.9 Orkney Islands Council 78.8 77.3 80.3 82.8 81.4 84.3 Perth and Kinross Council 79.8 79.2 80.3 82.6 82.1 83.2 Renfrewshire Council 76.3 75.8 76.8 80.6 80.1 81.1 Scottish Borders Council 78.8 78.2 79.4 82.5 82.0 83.1 Shetland Islands Council 77.6 76.3 79.0 81.9 80.6 83.2 South Ayrshire Council 77.7 77.1 78.4 81.0 80.4 81.6 South Lanarkshire Council 77.0 76.6 77.4 80.8 80.5 81.1 Stirling Council 78.5 77.9 79.2 82.0 81.4 82.6 West Dunbartonshire Council 74.8 74.0 75.5 78.7 78.0 79.4 West Lothian Council 78.2 77.7 78.7 80.8 80.3 81.3 Scotland 77.1 77.0 77.2 81.1 81.0 81.2 Source: National Records Scotland, Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland 2013-2015, Available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish-areas/2013- 2015/list-of-tables

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Appendix 2a: Male life expectancy at birth in Scotland by local authority area and comparisons with 2001-2003 and 2012-2014 Change Change Change Change 2013- 2012- 2001- 2013- 2012- 2001- over 1 over 12 over 1 over 12 2015 2014 2003 2015 2014 2003 year years year years 1 1 1 Years Years Years Rank Rank Rank (Years)2 (Years) (%)2 (%) Aberdeen City 76.6 76.7 74.1 24 23 17 -0.2 2.4 -0.2 3.3 Midlothian 77.3 77.3 74.7 20 19 13 0.0 2.7 0.0 3.6 East Lothian 78.4 78.4 75.6 10 9 6 0.0 2.8 0.0 3.7 Orkney Islands 78.8 78.7 75.9 6 6 5 0.1 2.9 0.2 3.8 Stirling 78.5 78.3 75.5 9 10 7 0.2 3.0 0.3 4.0 Aberdeenshire 79.2 79.3 76.1 4 4 2 -0.2 3.1 -0.2 4.0 South Lanarkshire 77.0 76.6 74.0 21 24 19 0.4 3.0 0.5 4.0 Fife 77.7 77.6 74.5 17 18 14 0.1 3.1 0.1 4.2 City of Edinburgh 78.0 77.8 74.8 14 16 11 0.2 3.2 0.2 4.3 Angus 78.6 78.6 75.3 8 7 9 0.0 3.3 0.0 4.3 East Dunbartonshire 80.5 80.5 77.1 1 1 1 0.0 3.4 0.0 4.4 East Renfrewshire 79.3 79.7 75.9 3 2 3 -0.4 3.3 -0.5 4.4 Dundee City 75.1 75.3 71.9 30 30 27 -0.1 3.2 -0.2 4.4 Dumfries and Galloway 78.1 78.0 74.8 13 14 10 0.2 3.3 0.2 4.5 Scottish Borders 78.8 79.2 75.4 5 5 8 -0.4 3.4 -0.5 4.5 Clackmannanshire 76.9 77.1 73.5 22 21 21 -0.2 3.4 -0.3 4.6 Argyll and Bute 78.2 78.2 74.8 11 11 12 0.0 3.5 0.0 4.6 Highland 77.9 78.2 74.4 15 12 15 -0.4 3.5 -0.5 4.6 North Lanarkshire 75.3 75.4 71.9 29 29 26 0.0 3.4 0.0 4.7 North Ayrshire 76.1 76.4 72.7 26 25 24 -0.3 3.5 -0.4 4.8 East Ayrshire 76.1 75.8 72.5 27 27 25 0.3 3.6 0.4 4.9 Falkirk 77.4 77.2 73.7 19 20 20 0.2 3.7 0.3 5.0 Perth and Kinross 79.8 79.4 75.9 2 3 4 0.4 3.8 0.5 5.0 South Ayrshire 77.7 78.2 74.0 16 13 18 -0.4 3.7 -0.5 5.1 Shetland Islands 77.6 77.8 73.5 18 15 22 -0.2 4.1 -0.3 5.6 West Dunbartonshire 74.8 74.6 70.8 31 31 30 0.1 4.0 0.2 5.6 Renfrewshire 76.3 75.8 71.9 25 26 28 0.5 4.4 0.6 6.1 Moray 78.7 78.5 74.2 7 8 16 0.2 4.5 0.3 6.1 Glasgow City 73.4 73.3 69.0 32 32 32 0.0 4.3 0.0 6.3 West Lothian 78.2 77.8 73.5 12 17 23 0.4 4.7 0.5 6.4 Na h-Eileanan Siar 76.7 76.9 71.8 23 22 29 -0.1 5.0 -0.2 6.9 Inverclyde 75.4 75.5 70.2 28 28 31 0.0 5.3 0.0 7.5 Scotland 77.1 77.1 73.5 - - - 0.0 3.6 0.0 4.9 Source: National Records of Scotland, Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland 2013-2015, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish-areas/2013- 2015/list-of-tables 1. The results may vary from year to year, particularly those based on small populations 2. Life expectancy has gone down for several councils in the past year. However the confidence intervals for 2012-14 and 2013-15 overlap

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Appendix 2b: Female life expectancy at birth in Scotland by local authority area and comparisons with 2001-2003 and 2012-2014 Change Change Change Change 2013- 2012- 2001- 2013- 2012- 2001- over 1 over 12 over 1 over 12 2015 2014 2003 2015 2014 2003 year years year years Years1 Years1 Years1 Rank Rank Rank (Years)2 (Years) (%)2 (%) Aberdeen City 80.9 81.0 80.0 20 19 11 -0.1 1.0 -0.1 1.2 Shetland Islands 81.9 82.4 80.7 14 7 4 -0.5 1.2 -0.6 1.5 West Dunbartonshire 78.7 78.6 77.4 32 32 30 0.1 1.3 0.2 1.7 Aberdeenshire 82.2 82.2 80.7 9 8 3 0.1 1.5 0.1 1.9 East Ayrshire 79.4 79.6 77.9 30 29 26 -0.2 1.5 -0.3 1.9 Clackmannanshire 80.1 80.2 78.6 27 27 21 -0.1 1.5 -0.1 1.9 Moray 81.7 81.7 80.1 15 15 6 0.0 1.6 0.0 1.9 Dumfries and Galloway 81.3 81.4 79.6 18 17 14 -0.1 1.7 -0.1 2.1 Orkney Islands 82.8 82.9 81.0 4 2 2 -0.1 1.8 -0.1 2.2 South Ayrshire 81.0 80.9 79.2 19 22 19 0.1 1.8 0.1 2.3 Angus 81.9 81.7 80.0 13 14 10 0.2 1.9 0.2 2.4 Fife 81.5 81.4 79.3 17 18 17 0.1 2.1 0.1 2.7 City of Edinburgh 82.2 82.1 80.0 11 10 8 0.1 2.1 0.1 2.7 South Lanarkshire 80.8 80.8 78.6 22 23 23 0.0 2.3 0.0 2.9 North Lanarkshire 79.6 79.6 77.3 29 30 31 0.0 2.3 0.0 2.9 East Renfrewshire 83.4 82.7 81.1 2 5 1 0.8 2.4 0.9 2.9 Falkirk 80.9 81.0 78.6 21 21 22 -0.1 2.3 -0.1 2.9 East Lothian 82.5 82.1 80.1 8 11 7 0.4 2.4 0.5 3.0 North Ayrshire 80.8 81.0 78.4 24 20 24 -0.2 2.3 -0.2 3.0 Dundee City 80.1 80.1 77.7 28 28 28 0.0 2.4 0.0 3.0 Glasgow City 78.8 78.7 76.4 31 31 32 0.1 2.5 0.2 3.2 Renfrewshire 80.6 80.6 78.1 25 25 25 0.0 2.5 0.0 3.2 Argyll and Bute 82.2 81.9 79.6 10 13 15 0.4 2.6 0.4 3.3 Perth and Kinross 82.6 82.8 80.0 5 3 9 -0.2 2.6 -0.2 3.3 Scottish Borders 82.5 82.4 79.8 7 6 12 0.1 2.7 0.1 3.4 Inverclyde 80.4 80.7 77.7 26 24 27 -0.3 2.7 -0.4 3.5 Stirling 82.0 81.9 79.3 12 12 18 0.1 2.7 0.1 3.5 Midlothian 81.5 81.5 78.6 16 16 20 -0.1 2.9 -0.1 3.7 East Dunbartonshire 83.5 83.5 80.4 1 1 5 0.0 3.1 0.0 3.9 Na h-Eileanan Siar 82.9 82.1 79.7 3 9 13 0.8 3.2 0.9 4.0 West Lothian 80.8 80.5 77.7 23 26 29 0.3 3.1 0.4 4.0 Highland 82.6 82.7 79.4 6 4 16 -0.1 3.2 -0.1 4.1 Scotland 81.1 81.1 78.8 - - - 0.1 2.3 0.1 2.9 Source: National Records of Scotland, Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland 2013-2015, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish-areas/2013- 2015/list-of-tables 1. The results may vary from year to year, particularly those based on small populations 2. Life expectancy has gone down for several councils in the past year. However the confidence intervals for 2012-14 and 2013-15 overlap

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Appendix 3: Life expectancy at birth by intermediate zone (2006-base), males and females, Aberdeen City, 2009-2013 Males Females Life Lower Upper Life Lower Upper

expectancy CI CI expectancy CI CI Years Years Years Years Years Years Aberdeen City 77.1 76.7 77.6 82.1 81.7 82.4 Ashgrove 71.8 69.4 74.3 77.5 74.7 80.3 Balgownie and Donmouth East 81.8 79.5 84.2 87.0 84.7 89.3 Balgownie and Donmouth West 80.1 78.2 82.0 80.4 77.8 83.1 Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill and Seafield East 80.8 78.0 83.6 85.1 83.4 86.8 Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill and Seafield North 84.9 82.9 86.9 85.2 83.2 87.2 Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill and Seafield South 81.2 79.1 83.2 84.1 82.3 86.0 Bucksburn North 81.1 78.2 83.9 84.8 83.1 86.6 Bucksburn South 78.5 75.7 81.4 84.7 82.7 86.7 City Centre (Aberdeen) 73.5 71.0 76.0 83.3 79.4 87.2 Cove North 75.2 72.4 78.0 78.5 76.5 80.4 Cove South 81.0 77.8 84.1 85.7 81.7 89.7 Culter 80.1 77.6 82.6 83.2 81.4 84.9 Cults, Bieldside and Milltimber East 81.5 79.9 83.1 85.4 83.9 86.8 Cults, Bieldside and Milltimber West 78.6 75.6 81.6 82.9 80.6 85.2 Cummings Park 74.6 71.8 77.3 81.9 79.3 84.5 Danestone 78.1 75.7 80.4 81.0 79.2 82.8 Denmore 80.5 78.1 82.9 84.9 81.8 88.0 Dyce 76.6 73.8 79.3 81.0 78.9 83.1 Ferryhill North 76.6 74.3 79.0 78.0 74.1 81.9 Ferryhill South 79.3 77.0 81.6 81.8 79.6 84.0 Froghall, Powis and Sunnybank 78.2 75.4 80.9 83.2 79.9 86.5 Garthdee 74.3 72.1 76.6 81.1 79.0 83.2 George Street 72.7 69.9 75.6 78.0 75.1 80.9 Hanover 70.2 68.0 72.4 79.0 76.4 81.6 Hazlehead 80.6 78.4 82.7 82.6 80.5 84.7 Heathryfold and Middlefield 73.2 70.9 75.6 79.5 77.6 81.4 Hilton 78.7 76.8 80.7 82.4 80.5 84.3 Kincorth, Leggart and Nigg North 77.4 75.0 79.9 78.8 76.3 81.3 Kincorth, Leggart and Nigg South 78.3 76.1 80.4 80.8 78.4 83.2 Kingswells 80.4 78.2 82.6 81.8 80.1 83.5 Mastrick 74.8 72.0 77.6 82.9 80.5 85.2 Midstocket 70.0 65.2 74.7 75.0 70.7 79.4 Northfield (Aberdeen) 75.7 73.4 78.1 82.7 80.3 85.1 Old Aberdeen 74.3 70.9 77.8 77.9 74.5 81.3 Oldmachar East 80.5 78.0 82.9 83.4 81.6 85.1 Oldmachar West 79.5 76.8 82.1 86.1 83.6 88.6 Rosemount 75.5 72.9 78.1 82.9 80.5 85.3 Seaton 72.4 70.0 74.7 77.1 74.5 79.6 Sheddocksley 77.3 75.2 79.5 80.0 77.6 82.3 Stockethill 75.2 72.8 77.5 80.3 78.2 82.4 Summerhill 78.9 76.8 81.1 80.8 78.4 83.1 Tillydrone 73.7 70.7 76.7 78.8 76.4 81.1 Torry East 72.2 69.5 75.0 78.8 76.6 81.0 Torry West 70.2 68.0 72.3 75.9 73.7 78.0 West End North 82.7 80.2 85.2 82.7 80.7 84.8 West End South 78.0 75.4 80.6 82.5 80.3 84.7 Woodside (Aberdeen) 68.2 65.6 70.8 74.9 72.3 77.5 Note: figures quoted are a 5 year mean average produced by aggregating intermediate zone deaths registrations and populations CI = 95% Confidence Interval Source: https://scotpho.nhsnss.scot.nhs.uk/scotpho/profileSelectAction.do

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Appendix 4: Estimated life expectancy at birth, males and females, intermediate zones (2006- base), Aberdeen City, 2009-2013 comparison with 2003-2007 Male life expectancy at Female life expectancy at

birth birth 2009- 2003- 2009- 2003- Change Change 2013 2007 2013 2007 Years Years Years Years Years Years Ashgrove 71.8 70.5 1.3 77.5 72.3 5.2 Balgownie and Donmouth East 81.8 81.2 0.6 87.0 84.3 2.7 Balgownie and Donmouth West 80.1 79.3 0.8 80.4 81.3 -0.9 Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill and Seafield East 80.8 78.9 1.9 85.1 81.9 3.1 Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill and Seafield North 84.9 83.6 1.3 85.2 85.6 -0.4 Braeside, Mannofield, Broomhill and Seafield South 81.2 81.1 0.1 84.1 83.7 0.4 Bucksburn North 81.1 76.8 4.2 84.8 82.2 2.6 Bucksburn South 78.5 74.1 4.4 84.7 79.8 4.9 City Centre (Aberdeen) 73.5 73.5 0.0 83.3 78.6 4.6 Cove North 75.2 71.9 3.3 78.5 77.2 1.3 Cove South 81.0 - - 85.7 - - Culter 80.1 76.3 3.8 83.2 82.4 0.7 Cults, Bieldside and Milltimber East 81.5 79.2 2.2 85.4 82.3 3.1 Cults, Bieldside and Milltimber West 78.6 79.5 -0.8 82.9 83.3 -0.4 Cummings Park 74.6 78.2 -3.7 81.9 80.8 1.1 Danestone 78.1 77.5 0.6 81.0 79.4 1.6 Denmore 80.5 - - 84.9 - - Dyce 76.6 78.1 -1.5 81.0 81.4 -0.4 Ferryhill North 76.6 72.8 3.8 78.0 82.0 -4.0 Ferryhill South 79.3 75.5 3.7 81.8 81.1 0.7 Froghall, Powis and Sunnybank 78.2 75.0 3.2 83.2 82.2 1.0 Garthdee 74.3 74.1 0.3 81.1 80.6 0.5 George Street 72.7 72.1 0.7 78.0 77.0 1.0 Hanover 70.2 72.1 -1.9 79.0 77.4 1.6 Hazlehead 80.6 76.7 3.9 82.6 82.0 0.6 Heathryfold and Middlefield 73.2 67.7 5.6 79.5 76.6 2.9 Hilton 78.7 74.5 4.3 82.4 79.8 2.6 Kincorth, Leggart and Nigg North 77.4 71.8 5.6 78.8 81.1 -2.3 Kincorth, Leggart and Nigg South 78.3 76.6 1.7 80.8 80.5 0.3 Kingswells 80.4 77.8 2.5 81.8 79.3 2.5 Mastrick 74.8 72.6 2.2 82.9 78.6 4.3 Midstocket 70.0 75.4 -5.4 75.0 79.0 -4.0 Northfield (Aberdeen) 75.7 70.3 5.5 82.7 82.1 0.6 Old Aberdeen 74.3 74.6 -0.2 77.9 78.9 -1.0 Oldmachar East 80.5 80.9 -0.5 83.4 - - Oldmachar West 79.5 81.1 -1.6 86.1 83.3 2.8 Rosemount 75.5 75.7 -0.1 82.9 81.0 1.9 Seaton 72.4 67.5 4.8 77.1 76.2 0.9 Sheddocksley 77.3 73.0 4.3 80.0 81.1 -1.2 Stockethill 75.2 74.6 0.6 80.3 77.8 2.5 Summerhill 78.9 74.3 4.7 80.8 78.7 2.1 Tillydrone 73.7 71.3 2.5 78.8 73.8 5.0 Torry East 72.2 69.9 2.4 78.8 77.2 1.5 Torry West 70.2 68.1 2.0 75.9 76.3 -0.5 West End North 82.7 79.3 3.4 82.7 83.8 -1.0 West End South 78.0 79.8 -1.7 82.5 83.2 -0.7 Woodside (Aberdeen) 68.2 69.4 -1.2 74.9 74.3 0.6 Source: Data for 2009-2013 from ScotPHO health and wellbeing profile, available at: https://scotpho.nhsnss.scot.nhs.uk/scotpho/profileSelectAction.do Data for 2003-2007 from National Records of Scotland, Life Expectancy in Intermediate Zones 2003-2007, available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish- areas/archive/life-expectancy-in-internediate-zones/2003-2007

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Appendix 5: Life expectancy at age 65 by local authority area, males and females, Scotland 2013- 2015

Males Females

Years 1 Rank2 Years 1 Rank2

Scotland 17.3 - 19.7 -

Aberdeen City 16.9 26 19.6 20 Aberdeenshire 18.2 6 20.2 14 Angus 18.1 8 20.5 11 Argyll and Bute 17.7 16 20.5 9 City of Edinburgh 17.9 10 20.5 10 Clackmannanshire 17.2 22 19.0 28 Dumfries and Galloway 17.8 13 19.8 17 Dundee City 17.0 25 19.3 23 East Ayrshire 17.1 24 18.4 30 East Dunbartonshire 19.3 1 21.1 4 East Lothian 17.7 17 20.5 8 East Renfrewshire 18.5 4 21.3 1 Falkirk 17.3 21 19.4 21 Fife 17.7 15 20.0 16 Glasgow City 15.2 32 18.2 32 Highland 18.2 5 20.8 5 Inverclyde 16.5 29 19.4 22 Midlothian 17.5 20 19.7 19 Moray 17.9 11 20.4 12 Na h-Eileanan Siar 17.6 18 21.1 3 North Ayrshire 16.8 27 19.2 25 North Lanarkshire 16.2 30 18.5 29 Orkney Islands 18.7 3 21.2 2 Perth and Kinross 19.0 2 20.8 6 Renfrewshire 16.7 28 19.2 26 Scottish Borders 18.1 7 20.5 7 Shetland Islands 18.0 9 20.3 13 South Ayrshire 17.7 14 19.8 18 South Lanarkshire 17.1 23 19.1 27 Stirling 17.8 12 20.1 15 West Dunbartonshire 16.0 31 18.4 31 West Lothian 17.5 19 19.3 24 Source: National Records Scotland, Life Expectancy for Administrative Areas within Scotland 2013-2015, Available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/life-expectancy/life-expectancy-in-scottish-areas/2013- 2015/list-of-tables 1The results may vary from year to year, particularly those based on small populations. 2Rank out of 32 local authority areas (high to low).

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