Impact Assessment of High Speed Rail Syste m in Korea

Sep. 30th, 2013

Dr. Jin Young Park Director Contents

Ⅰ Korean Railway System

Ⅱ Energy & CO² Reducon of High Speed Railway

Ⅲ Socio-economic Impact of High Speed Railway

Ⅳ Discussions

Contents

Ⅰ Korean Railway System

Ⅱ Energy & CO² reducon of High Speed Railway

Ⅲ Socio-economic Impact of High Speed Railway

Ⅳ Discussions

1. Railway Development during Economic Development Period (’60s~’80s) 1) The focus of the transport policy changed from railway to road § Decreasing railway investment during Five -Yearly Economy Development Plan Period * Share of railway investment : 61% → 29% → 22%→ 12%→ 10%

100% 90% 17% 80% 52% 52% 48% 47% 70% Road 60% 80% Rail 50% 61% 12% Metro 40% 22% 29% 29% Water 30% 31% 0% 16% Air 20% 3% 15% 4% 10% 10% 12% 14% 10% 1% 8% 8% 0% 1st('62~'66) 2nd('67~'71) 3rd('72~'76) 4th('77~'81) 5th('82~'86) 6th('87~'91)

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2. Expansion of Metropolitan Railway Lines (’80~’00) 1) New railway projects in conjuncon with the new town development pol icy § Support of new town development § Improvement of commung traffic condions connected Seoul § line, Ilsan line, (New residenal cies) opened in 1990 s § New bundang line constructed by private investment & land development cha rges - Driverless operaon system

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3. Expansion of High Speed Rail Service Area (’90~) 1) Construcon of Gyeongbu (Seoul~) high speed railway § Relieve severe road congeson in Gyeongbu Corridor - Concentraon in Gyeongbu corridor : Populaon 65%, GDP 74%

§ HSR plan included in the Naonal Plan(’80s)

Seoul § Technical Survey (’89~’91) § HSR Construcon (’92) Osong § 1st stage open(2004)

- New line 238.6km Daegu - Exisng line 171.2km § 2nd stage open(2010) Busan - 417.5km (New line 368.5km) Legend - Under construcon (unl 2014) Gyeongbu HSR Existing Line

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4. Current Status

1) Railway Facility Size(2011) Route Length Double Track Electrificaon § Track length : 3135→3635km 4000 § Double track : 23 →59.7% 3000 § Electrificaon : 14→71.6% 2000

* Except urban railway 1000

0 2) Railway Speed 1980 1990 2000 2004 2010 § 1900s 30Km/h : Steam locomove HEMU – 430X § 1950s 100km/h : Diesel locomove § 1980s 140km/h : Saemaeul train § 2004 300km/h : KTX(High Speed Train) § 2010 350km/h : KTX2 • Project Period § 2015 400km/h : HEMU : 6 Years (’07.7~’13.7) • Max. speed : 430km/h • Distributed Power System

7 Contents

Ⅰ Korean Railway System

Ⅱ Energy & CO² Rducon of High Speed Railway

Ⅲ Socio-economic Impact of High Speed Railway

Ⅳ Discussions

1. Plan for KTX Network (2020)

Link between major cies within 90 minutes

Access me to KTX staons within 30 minutes

Benefit range from KTX : 84% of populaon, 82% of naonal territory

9 2. Impact Assessment methodology

Time & cost saving : can be directly measured by number of passengers

Energy consumpon & emissions : integrated approach with other transpo rt modes for specific origin-desnaon

- Energy consumpon & emission unit per person-km of different mode s (car, convenonal railway, air, high speed railway) - Mulply of unit with number of traffic by each modes

Socio-economic benefit : regional study of before & aer

- Business acvity

- Land price - Populaon change

10 3. Direct Effect : Travel Time & Cost

KTX Auto Express Bus Airplane

Time (min) 106 228 240 - Seoul rao (1.00) (2.15) (2.26) ~

Daegu Cost (Won) 42,950 64,100 21,950 - rao (1.00) (1.49) (0.51)

Time (min) 150 302 317 164 Seoul rao (1.00) (2.01) (2.11) (1’09) ~

Busan Cost (Won) 53,200 89,100 29,250 78,500 rao (1.00) (1.67) (0.55) (1.48)

11 4. Energy consumpon : French Data

Descripon Liter/person-km Regular inter-city railway 0.044 TGV 0.008 Car Min. 0.144 Max. 0.217 Bus 0.049 Air Min. 0.123 Max. 0.205

Source: ADEME, France

12 1. Energy consumpon : during 2004~2008

Unit : million Liter Descripon Amount Seoul-Busan Min. 813 Max. 1,243 Seoul-Daegu Min. 123 Max. 232 Seoul-Gwangju Min. 218 Max. 332 Seoul-Mokpo Min. 29 Max. 39 total Min. 1,184 Max. 1,848

13 1. Energy consumpon : during 2004~2008

Unit : Million USD Descripon Amount Seoul-Busan Min. 1,260 Max. 1,927 Seoul-Daegu Min. 191 Max. 361 Seoul-Gwangju Min. 339 Max. 516 Seoul-Mokpo Min. 45 Max. 60 total Min. 1,835 Max. 2,865

- Oil price is assumed as 1.5 USD per liter 14 2. Energy consumpon : Korean Data

Descripon Liter/person-km Rao with KTX Car 0.067 10.47 Inter-city Bus 0.021 3.26 KTX 0.006 1.00 Inter-city Railway (Diesel) 0.023 3.50 Commung Railway (Diesel) 0.032 5.04 Metro 0.006 0.96

Source: Korea Railway Corporation, 2009

15 2. Energy consumpon : during 2004~2008

Unit : million Liter Descripon Amount

Seoul-Busan 647

Seoul-Daegu 152

Seoul-Gwangju 142

Seoul-Mokpo 8

total 950

16 2. Energy consumpon : during 2004~2008

Unit : Million USD Descripon Amount

Seoul-Busan 931

Seoul-Daegu 219

Seoul-Gwangju 205

Seoul-Mokpo 12

total 1,368

- Oil price is assumed as 1.5 USD per liter

17 3. CO² Reducon : French Data

Descripon Kg/person-km Regular inter-city railway 0.017 TGV 0.007 Car Min. 0.047 Max. 0.071 Bus 0.017 Air Min. 0.039 Max. 0.066

Source: ADEME, France

18 3. CO² Reducon : during 2004~2008

Unit : thousand ton Descripon Amount Seoul-Busan Min. 226 Max. 364 Seoul-Daegu Min. 3 Max. 38 Seoul-Gwangju Min. 63 Max. 101 Seoul-Mokpo Min. 6 Max. 9 total Min. 298 Max. 513

19 3. CO² Reducon : during 2004~2008

Unit : Million USD Descripon Amount Seoul-Busan Min. 8 Max. 13 Seoul-Daegu Min. 0.1 Max. 1 Seoul-Gwangju Min. 2 Max. 4 Seoul-Mokpo Min. 0.2 Max. 0.3 total Min. 10 Max. 18

- Value of CO² is esmated as 35 USD per ton. 20 4. CO² Reducon : Korean Data

Descripon g/person-km Rao with KTX Car 168.2 6.3 Inter-city Bus 55.7 2.1 KTX 26.9 1.0 Inter-city Railway (Diesel) 66.4 2.5 Commung Railway (Diesel) 95.5 3.6 Metro 25.9 1.0

Source: Korea Railway Corporation, 2009

21 4. CO² Reducon : during 2004~2008

Unit : Thousand ton Descripon Amount

Seoul-Busan 270

Seoul-Daegu + 231

Seoul-Gwangju 136

Seoul-Mokpo 13

total 189

22 4. CO² Reducon : during 2004~2008

Unit : Million USD Descripon Amount

Seoul-Busan 9

Seoul-Daegu + 8

Seoul-Gwangju 5

Seoul-Mokpo 1

total 7

- Oil price is assumed as 1.5 USD per liter

23 5. Environmental Cost Reducon : Korean Data

Descripon Korean won/person-km

Car 45.4

Inter-city Bus 14.07

KTX 0.0

Inter-city Railway (Diesel) 13.62

Aviaon 54.03

Source : Ministry of Environment, 2007

24 5. Environmental Cost Reducon : during 2004~2008

Unit : Million USD Descripon Amount

Seoul-Busan 362

Seoul-Daegu 92

Seoul-Gwangju 87

Seoul-Mokpo 12

total 553

25 Contents

Ⅰ Korean Railway System

Ⅱ Energy & CO² reducon of High Speed Railway

Ⅲ Socio-economic Impact of High Speed Railway

Ⅳ Discussions

1. Inter-city transport mode share

2003 2011 feature

Seoul - Airplane: 19%→0% - - KTX: 59.7% Daegu

Seoul - Airplane: 49→19% - - KTX: 64.5% Busan

27 1. Transport hub of the KTX staon

l KTX East-Daegu staon - Transport hub of the surrounding region (Seoul~Daegu traffic volume: 7.6 million → 11.9 million) - Transferable distance 60~70km

Seoul Seoul

11.9 million Trip 7.6 million Trip

Pohang Pohang

Daegu Daegu Gyeongsan Gyeongsan

<2003> <2008>

28 2. Relief of populaon concentraon to capital region l Decreasing emigraon from the KTX staon-based cies Busan(12,000 persons → 9,000 persons), Daegu(7,400 persons → 6,000 persons) l Decreasing trend of populaon concentraon in capital region (Daegu → Busan)

2,523 3,085

11,012 8,645 592 674 428 568 6,801 5,617

1187,009 7,009 202

Source: Statistics Korea 29 3. New economic acvies using KTX : Convenon & Commerce

l Convenon and commerce around KTX Staon

Meeng Frequency 11,447 No. of Users 341,534

4,012

153 2005 2011 2005 2011 2005년 2011년 2005년 2011년 RentProfit(mil.won) 2,500

2,098 2,000

1,500 1,511 1,575 1,245 1,000 870

500 286 Source: - 17 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2005년 20062006년 2007년 2008년 2009년 2010년 2011년 30 4. New economic acvies using KTX : Internaonal conference

Share of Internaonal Seminar of Busan : 6.4%(2003) → 20.9%(2010)

20032003 년 20062006 년 20102010 년

Gyoungbu경부축 KTX line Honam호남축 KTX line 343

224 191 158

80 82 43 28 14 18 15 19 6 1 9

서울Seoul Daejeon대전 Daegu대구 부산 Busan Gwangju광주

SOURCE : ‘MICE Industry Statistics’, KOREA TOURISM ORGANIZATION, Annually 31 5. New Economic Acvies : whole sale and retail industry

l Rapid increase of Busan city’s sale

l Straw effect to Seoul is not clear (Number) Wholesale & R 대구 Daegu 경북 Gyeongbuk 411 etail 260 163 306 162 257 (Daegu VS. Gyeon 2003 2004 2011 gbuk) (Number)

Educaon Servi 광주 Gwangju 전남 Geonnam ce 6 3 9 9 21 11 (Gwangju VS. Geo 2003 2005 2011 nnam) (Number) Enterprise Serv 대전 Daejeon 충남 Chungnam

1) ice 115 45 169 92 241 271 (Daejun VS. Chun 2003 2005 2011 gnam)

Source: The Korea Transport Institute, 「2011 KTX Economic Development Study」 , 2011. 32 6. Change of Land Price in KTX staon-based Cies

l KTX staon-based cies: two mes more than naonal growth rate

l New KTX staon-based cies: five mes more than exisng staon-based (unit : %)

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Naonal growth rate 0.22 2.04 12.35 16.07 12.97 15.44 10.96 8.88 -1.48

Large cies 0.26 2.26 15.39 14.38 8.67 15.05 12.26 10.03 -1.73 Small and medium ci 0.61 1.81 9.15 19.62 19.15 15.85 9.77 7.73 -1.28 es Average 2.65 0.80 4.88 30.53 33.10 35.88 14.20 6.95 -0.21 Exisng sta -4.04 -1.79 0.37 6.66 6.12 11.42 6.97 3.90 -1.28 on

KTX ba New staon 4.88 1.66 6.39 38.48 42.09 44.03 16.60 7.97 0.14 sed-ci es Opened in 2 -0.38 0.29 7.85 25.54 22.34 19.66 7.99 5.44 -1.01 004 Expected o pening in 2 5.68 1.31 1.91 35.52 43.85 52.10 20.40 8.46 0.58 010 Source: Korea Real Estate Research Institute (2009) 33 Contents

Ⅰ Korean Railway System

Ⅱ Energy & CO² reducon of High Speed Railway

Ⅲ Socio-economic Impact of High Speed Railway

Ⅳ Discussions

1. Railway can reduce energy consumpon & CO² l Relavely low energy consumpon & CO² emission than car or air

2. Railway system is relavely expensive

l Financial/technical resource

l Feasibility study(?)

3. Do we have impact assessment model for railway?

l Current B/C model can not include wide impact of railway system

l Time/cost saving, energy/environmental impact

35 Thank you. (jypark@ko.re.kr)