2015 COOK ISLANDS National Infrastructure Investment Plan Cook Islands Government This report is published under the auspices of the Cook Islands Government (CIG), with the support of the Pacific Region Infrastructure Facility (PRIF). The report was prepared by Richard Mabbitt, David Hamilton, Bernadette Raffe, Des Eggleton and Carsten Huttche working under the guidance of the PRIF Coordination Office and with administrative support by the Asian Development Bank. PRIF is a multi-development partner coordination, research and technical facility which supports infrastructure development in the Pacific. PRIF Members include Asian Development Bank (ADB), Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), European Union and European Investment Bank (EU/EIB), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (NZMFAT), and the World Bank Group. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of ADB, its Board of Governors or the governments they represent or any of the other PRIF Members. None of the above parties guarantees the accuracy of the data included in this publication nor accepts responsibility for any consequence of their use. The use of information contained in this report is encouraged with appropriate acknowledgement. This report may only be reproduced with the permission of both the Cook Islands Government and the PRIF Coordination Office on behalf of the PRIF Members. Acknowledgements The authors would like to express their appreciation for the support provided by everyone consulted during the course of preparing the CI NIIP, in particular Financial Secretary, Richard Neves and his staff for their help and assistance throughout the process, and Michael Henry and other members of the Infrastructure Committee for their oversight and guidance. Thanks go to Peter Tierney, Tamarii Tutangata, and Anne Taoro who provided assistance to the consultant team on a daily basis. The team is also very grateful for the logistical support provided by Vanessa Jenner and Charmaine Dolan on the ADB country desk, and the technical guidance provided by the PRIF Coordination Office. For more information, contact: Government of Cook Islands Ministry of Finance and Economic Management (MFEM) Level 1 MFEM Building, 1 Takuvaine Road, Avarua Rarotonga, Cook Islands www.mfem.gov.ck PRIF Coordination Office c/- Asian Development Bank Level 20, 45 Clarence Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia [email protected] www.theprif.org COOK ISLANDS National Infrastructure Investment Plan Cook Islands Government 2015 CINIIP 2015 Contents Contents i Preface vii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 About the CI NIIP 1 1.1.1 Role and Objectives 1 1.1.2 The CI NIIP Process 1 1.2 Consultation, Participation and Communication 2 2 Infrastructure Provision 5 2.1 General Situation 5 2.1.1 Population 5 2.1.2 Geographic and Island Context 5 2.1.3 Economic Overview 7 2.1.4 Opportunities and Challenges 7 2.2 National, Sector and Sub-sector Planning 8 2.2.1 National Development Agenda 8 2.2.2 Infrastructure Master Plan 9 2.2.3 Absence of Spatial Development Plans 9 2.2.4 Land Issues 10 2.2.5 Institutions involved in Infrastructure Provision 10 2.2.6 Sector and Sub-sector Plans 11 2.3 Demand for Infrastructure 14 2.3.1 The Drivers of Demand for Infrastructure 14 2.4 Infrastructure Status 15 2.5 Sub-sector Assessments 17 2.5.1 Air Transport 17 2.5.2 Marine Transport 19 2.5.3 Road Transport 20 2.5.4 Water Supply 22 2.5.5 Sanitation 23 2.5.6 Solid Waste Management 25 2.5.7 Energy 26 2.5.8 ICT 28 2.5.9 Assessment of Multi-sector Issues 28 2.5.10 Education 29 2.5.11 Health 30 2.5.12 Other Infrastructure 31 3 Priorities for Infrastructure Development 33 3.1 Assembling the Long-list of Projects 33 3.2 Prioritisation Methodology 35 3.2.1 Screening 35 3.2.2 Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA) 35 3.2.3 Results of the Multi-criteria Analysis 37 3.2.4 Preparing the Investment Plan from the Prioritised Project List 39 3.3 Sub-sector Priority Projects 39 4 Infrastructure, Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management 43 4.1 Introduction and Background 43 4.2 Evaluation of climate change and natural hazard impacts and risks for CI NIIP priority projects 43 4.2.1 Risk Assessment of Priority Projects 47 4.1 Enabling Environment for Climate Change and Disaster Management in Cook Islands 49 5 Funding Strategy 51 5.1 Availability of Finance for Investment in Economic Infrastructure 51 5.1.1 Capital Investment 51 5.1.2 Summary of the Availability of Finance for CI NIIP 53 5.2 Demand for Infrastructure Finance 54 5.2.1 Capital 54 5.2.2 Maintenance 55 5.3 Funding Sources for CI NIIP Projects 57 i CINIIP 2015 5.4 Private Sector Participation in CI NIIP Investments 58 5.5 Building the Financial Sustainability of Infrastructure Investment 59 5.6 Funding for Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction 61 6 Managing and Monitoring the CI NIIP 63 6.1 The Role of CI NIIP 63 6.2 Monitoring and Review 64 6.2.1 Regular Reviews 64 6.2.2 Measuring Progress of CI NIIP 64 6.2.3 Lessons Learned 65 6.3 Building Capacity 65 6.3.1 Management and Coordination 65 6.3.2 Institutional Strengthening within Sub-sectors 66 Appendices 69 Appendix A: List of Consultations and People Met 70 Appendix B: Project Prioritisation Results 73 Appendix C: Priority Project Descriptions 82 Appendix D: Current and Future Climate in Cook Islands 106 Appendix E: Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management Issues 114 Appendix F: Climate Change and Natural Hazard Evaluations of Key Priority Projects 120 Appendix G: Life-cycle Costing Issues 129 Appendix H: Funding Background and Issues 133 Appendix I: Existing NSDP Indicators 137 List of Figures Figure 1.1 The CI NIIP Process 2 Figure 3.1 Results of Prioritisation Scoring 38 Figure 5.1 Possible Phasing of CI NIIP Investments 55 Figure 5.2 Potential Funding Modalities for CI NIIP 57 Figure 6.1 Positioning of the CI NIIP 63 List of Tables Table 1.1 Summary of Consultation and Communications Programme 2 Table 2.1 Island Characteristics 5 Table 2.2 Economic Indicators 7 Table 2.3 NSDP Goals and Strategies 8 Table 2.4 Institutional Responsibilities 10 Table 2.5 Existing Sector Plans and Studies 12 Table 2.6 Drivers of Demand 15 Table 2.7 Summary of Key Infrastructure 15 Table 2.8 Air Transport Projects Proposed by the 20-Year PIMP, 2007 17 Table 2.9 Summary of Issues and Strategies, Air Transport 18 Table 2.10 Air Transport Projects on the Long List 18 Table 2.11 Marine Transport Projects Proposed by the 20-Year PIMP, 2007 19 Table 2.12 Summary of Issues and Strategies, Marine Transport 20 Table 2.13 Marine Transport Projects on the Long List 20 Table 2.14 Road Transport Projects Proposed by the 20-Year PIMP, 2007 21 Table 2.15 Summary of Issues and Strategies, Road Transport 21 Table 2.16 Road Transport Projects on the Long List 21 Table 2.17 Water Supply Projects Proposed by the 20-Year PIMP, 2007 22 Table 2.18 Summary of Issues and Strategies, Water Supply 23 Table 2.19 Water Supply Projects on the Long List 23 Table 2.20 Sanitation Projects Proposed by the 20-Year PIMP, 2007 24 Table 2.21 Summary of Issues and Strategies, Sanitation 25 Table 2.22 Sanitation Projects on the Long List 25 Table 2.23 Solid Waste Management Projects Proposed by the 20-Year PIMP, 2007 25 Table 2.24 Summary of Issues and Strategies, Solid Waste Management 26 Table 2.25 Solid Waste Management Projects on the Long List 26 Table 2.26 Energy Projects Proposed by the 20-Year PIMP, 2007 26 Table 2.27 Summary of Issues and Strategies, Energy 27 Table 2.28 Energy Projects on the Long List 27 Table 2.29 Summary of Issues and Strategies, ICT 28 Table 2.30 ICT Projects on the Long List 28 Table 2.31 Summary of Issues and Strategies, Multi-sector 29 Table 2.32 Multi-sector Projects on the Long List 29 Table 2.33 Summary of Issues and Strategies, Education 30 ii CINIIP 2015 Table 2.34 Education Projects on the Long List 30 Table 2.35 Summary of Issues and Strategies, Health 31 Table 2.36 Health Projects on the Long List 31 Table 2.37 Summary of Issues and Strategies, Other Infrastructure 32 Table 2.38 Other Infrastructure Projects on the Long List 32 Table 3.1 From Long-list to Priorities 33 Table 3.2 Prioritisation Criteria 36 Table 3.3 Ongoing, Committed and Proposed Projects - Air Transport 39 Table 3.4 Ongoing, Committed and Proposed Projects - Road Transport 39 Table 3.5 Ongoing, Committed and Proposed Projects - Marine Transport 39 Table 3.6 Ongoing, Committed and Proposed Projects – Water Supply 40 Table 3.7 Ongoing, Committed and Proposed Projects - Sanitation 40 Table 3.8 Ongoing, Committed and Proposed Projects - Solid Waste Management 40 Table 3.9 Ongoing, Committed and Proposed Projects - Energy 40 Table 3.10 Ongoing, Committed and Proposed Projects - ICT 41 Table 3.11 Ongoing, Committed and Proposed Projects – Multi-sector 41 Table 3.12 Ongoing, Committed and Proposed Projects - Education 41 Table 3.13 Ongoing, Committed and Proposed Projects - Health 41 Table 3.14 Ongoing, Committed and Proposed Projects – Other Infrastructure 41 Table 4.1 Prioritization Criteria for Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management used in the MCA for CI NIIP 44 Table 4.2 Climate Change and Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Matrix for CIIP Prioritised Projects 45 Table 4.3 Prioritised NIIP projects with climate proofing needs based on projected climate change risks (2050) 47 Table 5.1 Contributions to CI NIIP Financing 53 Table 5.2 CI NIIP Capital Investment Requirements 54 Table 5.3 Infrastructure Maintenance