World Bank Documents

FILECOPY RESTRICTED Report No. PTR-26a Public Disclosure Authorized This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness.The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views.

INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized

APPRAISAL OF A

SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

UGANDA Public Disclosure Authorized

August 25, 1969 Public Disclosure Authorized

Transportation Projects Department CURRENCYEQUIVALENTS

CurrencyUnit Uganda Shilling (U Sh) l U Sh = US¢lL U Sh 1,000,000 =US$140,000

FISCAL YEAR

July 1 to June 30

WEIGHTS AND MESURES

Metric and British

EQUIVALENTBRITISH/US SYSTEMP

1 kilometer (km) = 0.62 miles (mi) 1 meter (m) = 3.28 feet (ft) 1 square kilometer (km2) = 0.386 square miles (sq mi) I liter (1) = 0.22 imp. gallons 0.26 gallons (US) 1 metric ton (m ton) 2,204 pounds (lbs)

(Note: The Government of Uganda has decided to adopt the metric system. Conversionto the system began on January 1, 1969 and is scheduledfor completionby January 1, 1972. The Government'sintention is to introducemetrification into future design as rapidly as practicable. However, designs for works included in the project were commenced some years ago and design standardsmentioned in this report will be referred to in the British/US system. All other measurementswill be referred to in the metric system.)

ABBREVIATIONS

ADT - Average Daily Traffic FED - Fond Europeen de Development LAC -- East African Community EAHO - East African Harbours Corporation EAR&H - East African Railways and Harbours EARC - East African Railways Corporation EkTS - East African Transport Study NIO0W - Ministry of Works, Communicationsand Housing PN,EA PermanentMission in Eastern Africa UGANDA

APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAYPROJECT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Pa _ No.

SUMMARY...... i......

1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1

2. BACKGROUND ...... 3

A. General ...... 3 B. The Transport System ...... 4 C. Transport Coordination ...... 5

3. THE HIGHWAYSECTOR. 6

A. Highway Administration. 6 B. Planning. 7 C. Highway Engineering .. D. Construction Industry .8 E. Maintenance. 3 F. Growth of Vehicle Fleet and Road Use ...... 9

4. THE PROJECT. 10

A. General Description ...... 10 B. Primary Roads . . . .I...... 11 C. Secondary Roads ...... 12 D. Feeder Roads ...... 12 E. Tea Roads ...... 13 F. Services of Consultants ...... 13 G. Technical Assistance ...... 14 H. Cost Estimates and Financing ...... 15 I. Execution of Project ...... 16

5. ECONOMIC EVALUATION ...... 17

6. RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 18

(continued)

This report was prepared by E. Haker (economist) and F.D.T. Reid (engineer, PMEA). -2-

TABLES

1. Length of Classified Roads 2. Revenues from Road Users 3. Expenditures on Roads by Central Government 4. Design Standards 5. Licensed Motor Vehicles 6. Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Sales 7. Project Cost Estimates

ANNEX 1 - Description of Positions Included in Technical Assistance Program

ANNEX 2 - Basis for Economic Justification

CHART 1 - Organization of Ministry of Works, Communications and Housing

MAPS - 1. Uganda Road Network and Project Roads 2. Toro Tea Roads 3. Ankole Tea Roads 4. Kigezi Tea Roads UGANDA

APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAYPROJECT

SLMMARY i. Until the late 1950's, Uganda had the best highway system in Eastern Africa in terms of coverage and technical standards. This was due to a long tradition of communal labor, the existence of an abundant supply of good road materials and the presence of a competent and well staffed hiph- way administration. During the 1960's, however, a number of unfavorable de- velopments took place and as a result the condition of the highway system deteriorated. First, there was a loss of large numbers of personnel at executive and administrative levels, and second, the funds available for road maintenance were reduced to a considerable extent. Parallel with these de- velopments, traffic was increasing so that many of the roads built for light traffic became increasingly difficult to maintain, and the planninF for future highway development was not done, largely because of insufficient staff. ii. IDA's efforts to assist Uganda to overcome deficiencies dates back to 1962, when an attempt was made to identify road investment needs. Sub- sequent progress in project preparation was slow, mainly because of staffing deficiencies in the highway management. As a result, the first IDA Credit to Uganda (Credit 108-UG) for US$5.0 million equivalent was not signed until 1967. It has taken two more years from the date of the first highway project to complete the preparations of the present project, which constitutes the second and concluding phase of the original list of road investments that were identified in 1962. iii. The proposed project comprises:

(a) the construction and reconstruction of about 665 km of primary, secondary and agricultural roads;

(b) a road investment and maintenance study by consultants;

(d) technical assistance for the staffing and training requirements of the Ministry of Works, Communications and Housing (MOW).

The total cost of the project, including contingencies is estimated at US$16.5 million equivalent. The foreign exchange cost component correspond- ing to about 70% of project cost is estimated at about US$11.6 million equivalent and will be financed by the proposed credit. Execution of the project will be the responsibility of the MOW. iv. The project, which was prepared under the first IDA highway project, represents a natural development of the Bank Group's lending for highways in Uganda, and will prepare the way for future assistance for the highway sector. The project is consistent with the aims of the Government to continue the - ii - expansion and upgrading of the highway system in accordance with the needs of growing traffic and to support and promote agricultural development. The project will also strengthen Uganda's transportationlinks with Rwanda and Tanzania and encourage internationaltrade. Economic rates of return for the individual projects vary from 10% to 28%. Important elements of the project are the road investment and maintenancestudy and the technical assistance program which will strengthenhighway administrationand establishhigh- way planning on a systematic examinationof investmentand maintenance expenditure options. These elements of the project aim at providing the necessary remedies for critical deficienciesof highway management which affect the ability of the economy to absorb needed transportationinvestment. v. During negotiationsa number of issues were satisfactorilyresolved, the main ones of which related to the technical assistanceprogram: the road investment and maintenance study to be financed under the proposed credit, the reorganizationof the Works Division of the Ministry of Works, the maintenance of the highway system and road investmentpolicy. The project provides a suitable basis for an IDA Credit of US$11.6 million equivalent.

0 UGANDA

APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

1. INTRODUCTION

1.01 The Government of Uganda has asked the Association to help finance a project consisting of:

(a) the constructionand reconstructionof about 665 km of primary, secondary, and agriculturalroads;

(b) the services of consultantsfor

(i) the supervisionof construction, (ii) a road investmentand maintenance study, (iii) feasibilitystudies and the detailed engineering of about 400 km of roads; and

The cost of the project is estimated at US$16.5 million; the Governmenthas requested a credit from the Associationto meet foreign exchange costs amounting to 70% of the total, or approximatelyUS$11.6 million.

1.02 The project will improve Uganda's primary road links with Rwanda and Tanzania and improve the secondary roads in populated and economically developed areas, particularlynear Kampala, the capital. It will also open new areas for agriculturaldevelopment in more remote areas, and give a substantial impetus to tea production in the country. The road investment and maintenance study included in the project is designed to eliminatethe existing backlog in planning by identifyinginvestment priorities and the maintenance needs of the highway system, and to assess the reorganizationrequire- ments of the MOW. The technical assistancepart would enable the MOW to handle increasedvolumes of planning, constructionand maintenancework, and to train Uganda nationals who will eventuallytake over executivepositions.

1.03 This would be the second credit for the highway sector, the first (Credit108-UG) was for US$5.0 million equivalent signed on July 28, 1967 to finance the foreign exchange cost of the constructionand reconstructionof 161 km of roads. It included the services of consultantsfor the supervision of construction,and the detailed engineeringof 740 km of roads from which those included in the present project have been chosen.

1.04 Execution of the constructionof the Mbarara-Katungururoad (113 km), the principal item being financed under Credit 108-UG, is behind schedule. A contract for this work was awarded in June 1968 to Water Resources Development (Israel);the constructionperiod allowed for by the contract was 25 months. During the first seven months followingthe award of the contract,very little progress was made on the works. Following an IDA project supervisionmission in January 1969 and subsequent action by the Govern- ment, the contractor has now moved additionalplant to the site and a revised - 2 - constructionschedule has been formulated. During negotiations,the Govern- ment indicatedthat it now expected the project to be completedby mid 1971, about one year late.

1.05 The only other Bank Group financing for the transport sector consisted of two loans of US$24.0 million and US$38.0 million equivalent to the East African Railways and Harbours (EAR&H)which is jointly owned by Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda (Loan llO-EA on March 15, 1965 and Loan 428-EA on Sep- tember 29, 1966). The EAR&H is now being split into an East African Harbours Corporation (EAHC) and an East African Railway Corporation (EARC);the Bank recently negotiated a loan of US$35 million equivalent for EAHC, which was approved by the Board on July 29, 1969, and one of about US$43 million for EARC, which is now scheduled for negotiationsin September 1969.

1.06 There is an eight-year history to the Association'sefforts to identify and assist in the preparationof road projects in Uganda. The slow progress has been primarily due to:

(a) staffing and organizationdeficiencies of the MOW;

(b) slow progress in starting the engineeringdesign of road projects;

(d) the adoption of high design standardswhich made some roads economicallyunattractive; and

(e) the prolonged effort required on the part of Bank Group project preparationmissions to bring about changes to more economic designs.

Apart from the staffing and organizationdifficulties, these problems were eventually resolved in discussionswith the MOW.

1.07 The project currentlyproposed constitutesthe second and concluding phase of the constructionof the roads originally identified in 1962 as suitable for IDA financing. Provisions have been made in the present project for technical assistanceto solve the staffing problem, and for road studies to lay the way for further IDA assistance in the highway sector and ensure the timely preparation of sound projects in the future.

1.08 It was the Government'sintention to include in the project the constructionof six additionalroad sections totalling 150 km, whose detailed engineeringwas executed under Credit 108-UG. In addition the Government also requestedthat two roads included in the project should be constructedto paved standards. The Associationhas concluded,however, that in view of the existing staffing difficultiesof the MOW and the additional financial pres- sure which the local costs of constructionwould exert on the Government budget, it would be advisable to reduce the size of the project. Accordingly - 3 -

the Govermnentagreed to reduce the size of the project. The investments which have been left out had the lowest economic priority among those considered by the appraisalmission; the optimum timing of their constructionwill be examined under the road investment and maintenance study that forms part of the present project.

1.09 This appraisal report is based on the findings of a preappraisal mission from PMEAconsisting of E. Haker (economist)and A. van Dijck (engineer) which visited Uganda in June 1968 and an updating mission consisting of E. Haker and F.D.T. Reid (PMEA engineer)which visited Uganda in February 1969. The period between the two missions was spent in making the necessary revisions in the high design standardsoriginally proposed for certain project roads and in working out the details of the technical assistance scheme included in the project. The actual time required to bring about these changeswas in excess of reasonable estimatesand is indicativeof the Dres- ent staff and organizationdifficulties of the MOW.

2. BACKGROUND

A. General

2.01 Uganda is a landlocked country, about the size of the United Kingdom, in the upper basin of the Nile and astride the equator. It is bounded by the Sudan on the-north, Kenya on the east, Tanzania, Lake Victoria and Rwanda on the south and Congo (Kinshasa)on the west. The total area of the country is 233,000 sq km, of which about one-seventhis swamps and lakes. Most of the remainder is a plateau about 1,200 m above sea level; the climate is temperate. The population was estimatedat about 8.2 million in 1968 and is growing at the rate of about 2.7% per annum.

2.02 Accordingto the most recent estimates,Uganda's GDP amounted to US$923 million in 1968 or US$110 per capita, which is higher than the average level for Africa, south of the Sahara, but still in the lower quartile of the internationalscale of per capita GDP. The economy is based mainly on agri- culturewhich accounts for about 60% of GDP. A little over one-half of this representsmarketed production,principally coffee and cotton, for export. Agricultureemploys over 90% of the potential labor force. Developmentef- forts since 1966/67, the first year of the Second Five-Year Plan, have been mainly focused on the agriculturalsector and, in particular,on crop diver- sificationto eliminateexcessive dependence on coffee and cotton that between them accounted for nearly 70% of the value of exports in 1967.

2.03 Crops most favored in this respect are tobacco, groundnuts and sorghum for the home market, but the most spectacularsuccess in crop diver- sificationhas been tea production,almost exclusivelyfor export. Tea exports increasedby 50% between 1964 and 1967 and by the mid 70's will become a major foreign currency earner. B. The Transport System

(i) General

2.04 Apart fram the river Nile ifhichcuts the country from south to north, and Lake Kyogo with its extensivepapyrus swamps which prevents direct access between the populous fringes of Lake Victoria and the less developed northern part of the country, there are few physical barriers to communications within Uganda. Kampala, the capital and major commercialcity, is the main hub of the transport system from which roads and railway lines ra- diate throughout the country. Since Uganda is a landlocked country some 1,200 km from the nearest coast, and is heavily dependent upon foreign trade, the railway line to the port of Mombasa in Kenya is a vital link in its transport system.

(ii) Raiway

2.05 Railways are a part of the co-mon services of the East African Community (EAC) and until recently were managed by the EAR&H. In accordance with the Treaty for East African Cooperationof December 1967 between Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, it was decided to divide EAR&H into an East African Harbours Corporation (EAHC) with headquartersin Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and an East African Railways Corporation (EARC) with headquartersin Nairobi, Kenya. The split became effectiveon June 1, 1969, after an 18-month transi- tion period. EARC operates 5,870 km of lines in the three East African countries, of which 1,160 km are -withinUganda. Practically all of the country's internationaltrade is moved by rail, mostly to and from the port of Mombasa in Kenya. In 1967 the railways carried about 1.7 million tons of cargo for Uganda consisting of 153 million tons of exports and imports and 0.4 million tons of local traffic, Between 1962-67 railway traffic for Uganda has been growing at 8-9% per annim. Due to competitionfrom bus operators,passenger traffic which was never importanthas rapidly declined to insignificantpro- portions over the last five years.

(iii) B

2.06 The high-Raysystem of Uganda can be best described in terms of a semiicircle with Kampala as its center and with the circumferencebroadly followingthe internationalboundaries of the country (see Map No. 1). This systenmis supportedby a network of radials emanating from Kampala towards the circumference interconnected with secondary and tertiary roads. At present there are about 24,000 km of roads (see Table 1). Of these, about 6,000 km are primary and secondary roads consisting of about 1,500 km of paved and 4,500 km of good quality gravel roads. The rema'niLT 18c000 km of the road system constitutes the tertiary of feeder network, consisting mostly of un- engineered earth roads,

2.07 %uring the 1960's the highway system in Uganda has remained stag- nant and in sormerespects has deteriorated. This was primarily due to the loss of la.ge numbers of expatriate personnel at executive and administrative levels, leadLig to a deterioration in highway inamagement. Contributory fac- tors were a reduction in the funds available for road mainteenance, and an -5-

uneconomicallocation of road investment funds. Parallel to these develop- ments, traffic was increasingso that many of the roads built for light traffic became less and less adequate to serve the increasedvolumes. At the same time, little planning was being done for future highway needs due largely to the insufficientstaff. These issues are discussed in greater detail in Chapter 3 on the Highway Sector; the present project is aimed primarily at remedying this situation.

(iv) Waterways

2.08 The inland waterway service on Lake Victoria is operated by the EARC; it provides a link with the Tanzania and Kenya transport systems; it forms part of Uganda's alternativeroute to the seaports in Tanzania. Jinja and Port Bell are Uganda's two main lake ports and each handles about 10-15,000 tons per annum.

(v) Air Transport

2.09 There are 12 airfields in the country served by scheduledflights of the East African Airways Corporation (EAAC),which is also jointly owned and operated by the three East African countries. Entebbe, 33 km south of Kampala has the only airport that can handle large jets. Existing traffic is still modest in comparisonwith other internationalairports in Africa, notably Nairobi which is East Africa's major internationalairport, only 700 km away.

C. Transport Coordination

2.10 The rail and road system of Uganda are largely complementary. The railway's prime function is to haul exports to the coast and bring imports to the main distributingcenters. Road transport serves the export sector by connectingnumerous scatteredproduction points with processing centers and railheads,by moving imported goods to the many small retail outlets throughoutthe country, and by providing for the internal distributionof foodstuffs,local raw materials and manufacturedgoods.

2.11 This complementarityof railways and roads in Uganda is particularly evident when viewed in an East African context. Road transport in Uganda does not seriouslythreaten the mainstay of railway finances,the long-haul trunk line traffic. For Uganda's export/importtraffic, the average length of haul to the sea has been sufficientlylong to protect this traffic from serious road competitiondespite the differentialtariff which elsewherehas tended to invite uneconomic road competition. It has therefore never been considerednecessary by the authoritiesto introducelicensing restrictions on the transport of goods by road in Uganda, similar to those found in neighboring Kenya and Tanzania.

2.12 Within Uganda itself, however, there has been some parallel development of transport facilitiesalong some routes with resultantunder- utilizationof capacity. The Governmenthas found it necessary to protect certain rail lines by underinvestmentin parallel road facilitiesand by arbitrarilydirecting to the railway all Governmenttraffic, includingthat - 6 - of the cotton and coffee marketing organizations,as well as transit traffic to and from the Congo. This has taken place regardlessof possibly cheaper alternatives.

2.13 In the road sector, total revenue received from vehicle use and ownershiphas increasedfrom about U Sh 47 million in 1961/62 to U Sh 117 million in 1967/68 (Table 2). This increase is attributablemore to upward revision of tax rates on road users than to an increase in vehicle use and ownership. The revenues are nearly three times as high as current expenditures on roads during recent years and amply cover investmentexpenditures as well (Table 3).

2.14 For the past year, the three East African Governmentshave been carrying out a joint study on transport coordinationwith the financial assistance of the UNDP; the Bank is acting as the Executing Agency. The object of the study is to provide each government with a sound basis for _ formulatingits transportpricing, taxation,and regulation policies. The study should develop an appropriatelyrhased series of measures to coordi- nate the use and developmentof the various modes of surface transport in and among the three countries, so that economic resources are used in the most efficientmanner. The findings of the study, which are now under re- view, include recommendationsfor (a) the adjustment of railway tariffs so that all tariffs cover at least variable costs; (b) the introductionof commercial flexibilityin railway pricing in order to prevent the diversion to road transport of traffic economicallysuited to rail transport; (c) the discontinuationof uneconomic railway services and lines; and (d) a phased relaxationof the licensing policies in Kenya and Tanzania that in the past have restrictedthe developmentof road transport. The net effect of im- plementingthese recommendationson existing traffic flows in Uganda is not likely to be significant,and would not affect adversely the justification of the proposed second highway project.

3. THE HIGHWAY SECTOR 4

A. Highway Administration

3.01 Primary and secondaryroads are administeredby the MOW, while the tertiary system is administeredby Local Governmentssupported by 'grants-in- aid' from the Central Government for maintenance and improvement. The MOW (see Chart 1) is divided into three Divisions:Housing, Communicationsand Works. The CommunicationsDivision is concernedwith aviation, railways and other transport and communicationmatters falling within the framework of the common services operated under the EAC. The Works Division is respon- sible for the development and maintenanceof the water supply system, airfields and the primary and secondary road systems. It consists of a head office at Entebbe and four regional offices. The head office is divided into five branches:water supply and drainage, planning, design and documentation, constructionand maintenance,mechanical, and materials. Executive responsibility for maintaining the primary and secondaryroad system lies with the four regional offices of the MOW, while the responsibilityof the headquarters is confined to general policy and budgetary control. 3.02 The existing organizational. structure suffers f-a-am ae bner of deficiencies which limit the capacity of the Works Division both in terms of the volume and efficiency of its operations. There is a need for a clear division of responsibility between the needs of roads, airports, and water supply and drainage. Centers of responsibility for planning and for administration should be separated and clearly defined lines of authority between headquarters and regional offices established.

3.03 Organizational difficulties have been largely aggravated by the shortage of qualified staff that has developed in the past years. The' Govern- ment has not yet met its obligations under Credit 108-UG to take prompt and effective steps to ensure that the Works Division of the MOWis adequately staffed. In 1957 MOWprofessional staff consisted of 32 engineers engaged on a full or part time basis on roads. Their number has now declined to 17 even though highway expenditures have risen from about U Sh 31.5 million in 1957 to U Sh 70 million in 1967/68. A further three key foreign personnel will be leaving shortly. One cause of this is the salary structure, which does not attract and hold competent foreign expertise needed until Uganda nationals have been trained. Thi-s shortage of trained staff has imposed a serious limitation on the volume of new highway work which the MOWcan undertake.

3.04 The assistance of consultants is essentilal. if the project is to be executed properly. Such assistance would be provided Luder the proposed credit. In addition, technical assistance to provide an interim solution to the staffing problem, to implement a limited reorganization of the MOW, and to provide on-the-job training for Uganda nationals is al-so included in the proposed credit.

B. Planning

3,05 Preseint road plalining can be bes t desci t-d as alx ad hoe process based on the accuiulated experience and J.dgment mainly 3f senior kIOWperson- nel as to the road development requirements of the country. A road development plan was drawn up for the Second Five-Year Plan (l966/67-1970/71) consisting of a list of 85 roads for an estimated expenditure of US$40 million equivalent. At an early stage of its execution it becasne evident that investment costs were seriously underestimated, and that to attain the physical targets of the Plan approximately US$75 million would be required. This, however, was out of the question financially, and in terms of the capacity of the MOWto plan and implement projects. Moreover, the substantial increases in cost estimates for particular projects cast considerable doubt on their economic justification; some of them were in an advanced stage of preparation.

3.06 The MOWwas, therefore~ faced A.th thae lar-ge tx.sk 3f reviewing the list of road projects and establishing priorities on the basis of benefit/cost analyses and its cxpacity to carry out works wi.thin the overall finanrcial constraints of US$40 million for the Plan period. As the Ministry did not at t'ne time have the staff for iwhistask, it reduced the physical scope of the progriin, 9 ainly according to t6ie deg ee of projectpreparation and the availability of foreign assists ice foi6specific projects. Even in its reduced scope the Plan is behind schedule. A.ccord-ingtio recent infor- matiorn iivestmen'u expenditures have toJalled less than U $L3 miJllon through 1968I69, the third year of the Plan. Most of the spending occurred for a few costly projects, and it is possible that not more than 40% of total physical targets of the Second Five-YearPlan will be reached. Roads in the proposed project are consideredto be of high priority in the Plan.

3 07 Insufficient attention has been given to allocating the right amount of resources for the right type of projects in the highway sector. What is needed to remedy this situation is a brief but rigorous examination of the present list of road projects of the MOW to determine priorities on a systematicbasis. This task can be most convenientlycarried out within the framevork of a road investmentand maintenancestudy, mainly based on the data obtained through the East African Transport Study, and using its policy recoammendationsfor the role of each transpor'mode in the requirements of the overall economy. Provision has been made in the present project 6 to finance such a study.

C. Hihway_ Engineering

3.08 In the past, the MOW has employed survey -ffirmsto locate, survey and design road alignments,doing itself the soils work, bridge design and preparationof specificationsand contract documents. This resulted in a lack of coordinationwhich has led to serious errors in design and substantial increases in construction cost over the design estimates, Assurances have been obtained from the Governmentthat for the feasibilitystudies and detailed engineeringto -be financed under the proposed credit, the consultants employed ill execute all aspects of the design work, including those mentioned at the beginning of this paragraph.

3.09 Design staiidars in Uganda for -vreai:tniountainous terral have been found to be high. The matter of appropriatedesign standards for various types of roads will be examined in the inves;.mentand maintenancestudy included in the project. For the construction and reconstruction items included in the preser.t project, the standards shown in Table 4 which were drawn ,xpin consultation with the Association will be adopted.

D. Construc,tion IndlA

3.10 The construction indust._-' in East Africa is riadeuxp of branches or subsidiaries of large European firms. Srmal" contracts such as for culverts, small bridges and other labor-intensive works are carried out by local firms.

E. Maintenance

3.11 Maintenance of the road systiem is dete-ioratiiig a. fo.leign staff leaves the country ann as the amounts allocated for maintenance (Table 3) become in- reasingly insufficient to keep pace with the growth of the road network and,traffi c vo-omes, Average maintenance expenditui es including current, maintena,nceresufacing, regravelling, and equipment depreciation and traffic aids have declined to US$360 in !.963,t68per im of road compared with ar, average of about US$S50 during 1961/6 if an allowance is made for general cost inflation and reduced efficiencyin maintenanceoperations due to a loss of expert staff, the decline that has taken place despite an increase of 40% in traffic during this period becomes even more striking.

3.12 Maintenance expenditure for the 18,000 km of roads under local government jurisdiction amounted to U Sh 15 million during 1967/68 averaging about US$100 per km and is also not adequate. If the present situation is allowed to continue,the conditionof the main road system will deteriorate to a point where substantialreconstruction investments will be required. It is clear that the Governmenthas not fully met its obligationsunder Credit 108-UG to adequatelymaintain the road network.

3.13 The 1969/70 maintenance estimates submittedfor Treasury approval total U Sh 37 million compared with U Sh 15.7 million for 1967/68. A maintenance report prepared by the MOW in this connectionestimates that the re- gravellingof roads in the primary and secondary road systems is overdue by an average of eight years and the resurfacingof those with a bitumen surface by about four years; the backlog for regravelling alone is estimated at U Sh 30 million. In order to eliminate some of this backlog, the 1969/70 budgetary requests include U Sh 12.6 million for regravellingaimed at catch- ing up on 50% of the roads where regravellingis overdue by ten or more years. In addition, U Sh 7.1 million has been included for the resealingof bitumen roads overdue by a similar amount of time.

3.14 The urgency to catch up on road maintenancefor those roads on which maintenance is overdue by ten years or more is sufficientlyself-evident not to require its confirmationby the road investmentand maintenance study. During negotiations,it was agreed that the Associationwould send a letter to the MOW expressingits concern regardingthe need to improve maintenance of the road network and that the views of the Associationwould be submitted to the Cabinet to ensure that the Governmentwill take definite steps to improve the maintenancesituation. It was further agreed that the Government would provide the details of the maintenancebudget that has been approved for 1969/70 and the list of roads that will be regravelledor resurfaced. In addition the Governmentwould submit to the Associationby February 28, 1970 an interim regravellingand resurfacingprogram for 1970/71 pending the findings of the study.

F. Growth of Vehicle Fleet and Road Use

3.15 In 1967 there were about 44,000 vehicles in Uganda (Table 5) giving a vehicle density of one per 180 persons. This is about average for Africa, south of the Sahara. The average growth rate for the vehicle fleet for the period 1957-67 was about 5% per annum. However, between 1962-67 the growth rate acceleratedto over 6%, especiallyfor the truck and bus fleet which grew at nearly 8% per annum. The Governmentestimates, and the Association agrees, that during the next 10 years the growth rate of the vehicle flow in recent years will be maintained and that this rate is consistentwith the projected GNP growth rate of 4.5% per annum. - 10 -

3.16 Traffic counts have been taken in Uganda since 1951 and the number of counting stations has been gradually expanded to about 250 in 1968. Since 1964 the quality of the counts has improved considerablybut central direction is still lacking and the system is unable to produce accurate ADT's adjusted for seasonal variations. According to results from some 70 stations on the interurbannetwork for which counts over the past five years are available, traffic has been growing at about 8% per annum. During the same period of time fuel consumptionhas been growing at 6.5% per annum (Table 6). When this rate is adjusted to reflect the growth of fuel consumptionfor inter- urban traffic alone, a rate of 7.5% is arrived at which is quite close to the 8% growth rate based on ADU data.

4. THE PROJECT 0 A. General Description (see Map No. 1)

4.o0 The project consists of:

Construction and Reconstruction:

(a) three primary roads totalling about 167 km;

(b) three secondaryroads totalling about 111 km;

(d) tea roads in three districts totalling about 330 km;

Consultants'Services for:

(e) the supervisionof road constructionunder (a) - (d);

(f) a road investmentand maintenance study;

(g) feasibilitystudies and detailed engineering of about 400 km of primary, secondary and feeder roads;

Technical Assistance for:

(h) the staffing and training requirementsof the MOW.

4.02 The roads to be constructedunder this project have been engineered and bidding documents have been prepared by consultantsas part of the first road project. - 11 -

B. Primary Roads

(i) Masaka-Kyotera(47 km, US$1.85 million)

4.03 This road, along the western shore of Lake Victoria, forms part of the Kampala-Masaka-Mutukula (Tanzania border) road, which has a bitumen surface from Kampala to Masaka. Between Masaka and Kyotera, it is an unengi- neered gravel road in poor condition. The project road has been engineered by Italconsult (Italy) to Class I standards (Table 4) and will be provided with a 20-ft bitumen surface which is satisfactoryfor the traffic to be served during its economic life. The conditionof the remainingsection to the border is adequate for existing traffic.

(ii) Kabale-RwandaBorder (23 km. US$0.95 million) 0 4.04 This road forms part of the link between Kampala and Kigali, the capital of Rwanda. From Kampala to Masaka the road has a bitumen surface in fair condition, and from Masaka to Kabale the road is being reconstructed to Class I standard with a 20-ft bitumen surface under bilateral assistance from the Federal Republic of Germany. The Rwanda Government is carrying out the detailed engineering of the Rwanda border-Kigali section of the road under financial assistance from FED (Fond Europeen de Development) with a view to its reconstruction.

4.05 The project road passes through difficult terrain consisting of narrow swampy plains between rocky mountain slopes; the alignment and its surface are unsuitable for the truck-and-trailer combinations that carry Rwanda's international traffic. The consultants, Electroconsult (Italy), propose that this road should be constructed to Class I gravel standards with a 22-ft carriageway but that the radius of curvature be reduced below the present minimum standard of 900 ft in hilly terrain. This design is satisfactory.

(iii) Iganga-Mbale (97 km, US$2.2 million)

4.o6 The present Iganga-Mbale road consists of two reasonably well- aligned low class gravel sections linked by a ferry which crosses a 3.2 km wide papyrus swamp at Terinyi. The consultants,Edward and Burrow (UK), have proceeded with the detailed design of the road on the basis of Class I standards with a 20 ft bitumen surface. The proposed alignment would follow the existing one which is satisfactory. The design included an embankment accross the swamp and a 45 ft long bridge. At the time of the negotiations the engineeringof the road was complete except for the bituminouspavement and a substantialamount of additionaltechnical investigationswere still required to complete the detailed engineeringof the swamp crossing. In the meantime constructioncost estimateshad escalated by about 60% so that the economic rate of return on the total project was substantiallyreduced (Annex 2, paras. 10, 11). It was therefore agreed that the swamp crossing and bitumen surface would be left out of the present credit pending the completion of the detailed design and the road would be constructed at this stage to Class I gravel standards only. - 12 -

C. SecondaryRoads

(i) Kayunga-Bale(45 kmi,US$0.60 million)

(ii) Kayunga-Nabuganyi(19 km, US$0.27 million)

(iii) Bukoloto-Jinja(47 km, US$1.30 million)

4.07 These are secondaryearth roads in poor condition, serving some of the most heavily populated and agriculturally developed areas in southern Uganda. Roads (i) and (ii) would be constructed to Class I gravel and road (iii) to Class I bitumen standards which are satisfactory. The roads have been designed by Edwards and Burrow (UK). The realization of the full benefits of the Kayunga-Nabuganyi project depends on linking this road with the main trunk system with an adequate ferry across the Nile. During negotiations the Government agreed that a suitable ferry will be transferred to this site.

(iv) Sezibwa Crossing (2 km, US$0.33 million)

4.o8 The Sezibwa crossing traverses a 2-km wide swamp on the trunk road from Kalagi to Kayunga, which carries about 600 vehicles per day. The present causeway which incorporates a bridge is narrow, and its gravel surface is un- even due to settlement. It needs reconstruction and the consultants (Edwards and Burrow) proposed that it should be built to Class I standards with a 20-ft bitumen surface. The Government has agreed that the pavement will not be constructed to full standard immediately. Completion of a permanent pavement would be made when settlement of the fill across the swamp has stabi- lized.

D. Feeder Roads

(i) Mbale-NkokonJeru(20 km, us$0.80 million)

4.09 This road is a penetrationroad which will open up some of the most populous counties of the Mount Elgon District and link them with the rest of the country. The terrain is difficult, and the rise to the plateau is steep and involves climbing an escarpmentbetween altitudesof 1,200-2,100m. To avoid excessive constructioncosts, the consultants (Edwards and Burrow) have reduced the geometric standards considerablyfor this road. These reductions are consistentwith the main objectiveof the proposed facility which is to open new areas for agricultural development by providing an all-weather road at minimum economic cost. The proposed design includes a bitumen surface on the escarpment section, which is necessary to protect the gravel surface on the very steep grade.

(ii) Maiyugo-Akokoro(37 km. US$0.35 million)

4.10 This is a penetrationroad passing through flat terrain in north- central Uganda. The consultants, Roughton & Partners (UK), have designed this road to Class III standard. A ferry is required for the full realization of the benefits as in the case of the Kayunga-Nabuganyi road. The Government has agreed that a suitable ferry will be made available to ful- fill this requirement. - 13 -

E. Tea Roads

(i) in Toro district (70 km, us$o.65 million)

(ii) in Ankole district (120 km, US$0.70 million)

(iii) in Kigezi district (140 km, US$1.10 million)

4.11 These roads are to be constructedin three differenttea-producing areas (see Maps 2, 3, 4 and Table 7) and their location has been decided upon consultationwith the Uganda Tea Growers Corporation. They are penetration roads and form an integral part of a tea developmentscheme which is being financed by the Associationunder Credit 109-UG. The terrain is generally rolling to hilly, with some mountainoussections in the Ankole and Kigezi * areas.

4.12 The standardsoriginally adopted for the project are those of the MOW for mountainousterrain whose %trict applicationproduced estimated costs of US$20,000 per km which were clearly above the requirementsof minimum all-weatherroads for vehicles carrying green tea. The consultants, Norconsult (Norway),were asked by the Governmentto redesign the roads to the minimum all-weatherstandard required for use by medium size trucks in all but the wettest conditions. The revised designs are consistentwith minimum all-weatherroad requirementsof the tea-growingareas. Construc- tion will be supervisedby experiencedroad consultantswho will make field decisionson the horizontal and vertical alignments and drainage.

4.13 Maintenanceof tea roads will be the responsibilityof local district councils, some of whom are short of experiencedstaff, and may have difficulty in maintainingthe roads satisfactorily. During negotiations, the Government agreed that the MOW will take over responsibilityfor maintenance of the tea roads, if the local district councils, in the opinion of the Association,fail to maintain the roads in a satisfactorycondition.

F. Services by Consultants

(i) ConstructionSupervision, (us$0.60 million)

4.14 Due to the understaffingof the MOW (para. 3.03) the assistance of consultants is essential to supervise construction. During credit negotiations assurances were obtained from the Government that consultants satisfactory to the Associationwill be employed for supervisionof construction.

(ii) Road Investmentand Maintenance Study, (US$0.30million)

4.15 This study will be largely based on transport demand data collected under the recent East African Transport Study (EATS) and will use its policy recommendationsas a general framework to the extent that they are acceptable to the Government. The study will have the following aims: - 14 -

(a) the assessmentof road developmentpriorities of Uganda for the period 1971/72-1975/76;

(b) recommendationof general design standards;

(d) the assessment of the changes which are required in the present organizationof the MOW to enable it to cope with the increased planning, construction and maintenance requirementsof an expanding road system (para. 3.02).

Special emphasis will be given to the rehabilitationrequirements of the heavily traffickedroads in Uganda. In this context,the feasibilityof the upgrading of the Kampala-Entebbe road to a four-lane highway will also be examined. This project is currently under active consideration for contractor financing but has not been appropriately studied.

4.16 The study is required because there is a considerable backlog in highway planning and road maintenance and the MOWlacks the staff to do the necessary work without outside assistance. The study will involve a small group of specialists over an eight-month period. During negotiations agreement was reached on the scope of the study; assuranceswere obtained from the Government that the study will be carried out by consultants satisfactory to IDA, and that major investment decisions on road construction, including the upgrading of the Kampala-Entebberoad to a four-lanehighway, will be post- poned pending the results of the study.

(iii) Feasibility Studies and Detailed Engineering of 400 km of Roads (US$1.00 million)

4.17 To enable the MOWto proceed with the engineeringof roads that are economicallyjustified, and to ensure a continuationof road investment in an orderly manner, feasibilitystudies and the detailed engineering of about 400 km of roads recommendedby the road investmentstudy (para. 4.15) are included in the project. These roads could subsequentlyform the basis for future Bank Group lending to Uganda. During negotiationsassurances were obtained that the feasibility studies and detailed engineeringwill be carried out by consultants satisfactory to the Association.

G. TechnicalAssistance, (US$0.50million)

4.18 The successful execution of the technical assistance program re- quires a limited reorganizationin the Works Division consisting of:

(a) the splittingof the present Constructionand MaintenanceBranch into two separate branches; - 15 -

(b) confining the present Planning and Design Branch to design and documentationand the creation of a new branch for advance planning; and

During negotiationsthe Government gave its agreementto the above reorganization.

4.19 The staffing situationof the MOW has already been discussed in para. 3.03. The technical assistance scheme included in the project is designed to:

(a) meet immediate staffing deficiencies,mainly in executivepositions;

(b) continue the work to be started by the road investment and maintenance study; and

To achieve the above aims, the scheme would provide for the services of 11 foreign experts. (See Annex 1 for list of personnel, qualificationrequire- ments and duty definitions.) The terms of the technical assistance provided under this credit were discussed at length during negotiationsand it was a- greed that the 11 experts would work for three years at headquarters.

4.20 The personnel would be recruited by the Government. The salaries have been worked out in conformity with the qualifications required for the proposed positions and scales of pay in similar schemes for other parts of Eastern Africa. The scale is considerablyhigher than the present Government scales for foreign personnel which have proved inadequateto attract suitably qualifiedcandidates. Agreement was reached on guidelines for qualifications and salaries.

H. Cost Estimates and Financing

4.21 The total cost of the project is estimated at US$16.5 million including contingencyallowances. A summary of the cost estimate in rounded figures split into local and foreign cost is shown below, and is given in detail in Table 7. - 16 -

U Sh (millions) US$'000 equivalent Items Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total

(a) Road Construction 23.5 56.0 79.5 3,330 7,770 11,100

(b) Consultants'Services 4.0 9.5 13.5 570 1,330 1,900

(d) Contingencies 6.5 15.0 21.5 850 2,150 3,00O

Total 35.0 83.0 118.0 4o9 Ll_600 626500

4.22 The constructioncost estimate is based on detailed engineering studies, and prices obtained in contracts recently awarded following international bidding. The cost estimates for the consulting services for constructionsupervision are based on actual costs for similar services rendered by consultants. The cost estimates for the road investmentand maintenance study are based on man-month estimates and salary scales for consultants' work of a similar kind recently executed in East Africa. The contingency item includes an allowance of 10% for physical contingenciesand a further 11% for price escalation over the period of the project. The price escalation contingencyhas been calculatedon the assumption that in conformity with past trends, foreign costs will increase at 2.5% per annum and local costs at 5.0% per annum.

4.23 The foreign exchange component for constructionand reconstruction is estimated at 70% and is the same as that under the first project, Credit 108-UG. It includes depreciationof equipment, imported materials, fuels, spare parts, the cost of foreign personnel, overhead and profits. The local component includes labor and local services. For the services of consultants and technical assistance,the foreign exchange component is also about 70%; the local costs cover subsistenceallowances, wages of local personnel, and certain miscellaneousitems.

I. Execution of Project

4.24 Execution of the project will be the overall responsibilityof the MOW, assisted by qualified consultantsunder terms and conditions satisfactory to the Association. Contracts for the constructionworks would be let on the basis of unit price contracts after internationalcompetitive bidding and in accordancewith the Association'sestablished procedures. The value of individual contractswill vary from-US$0.35 million to US$3.00 million. The issu- ing of tenders will be staggered in order to avoid overloadingthe capacity of the MOW and that of the contractingindustry. Constructionof all the roads will be completedby mid 1973.

4.25 The road investmentand maintenance study would be completedby late 1970 while the consulting services for the feasibilitystudies and detailed engineeringof 400 km of roads would be completedby the end of 1971. Staff for the technical assistance scheme will be recruited-bythe MOW; the - 17 -

scheme should be fully underway by mid 1970 and continue until mid 1973. The recruitmentof qualified individualsto fill these types of posts has proved to be a problem in neighboringcountries where similar schemes are underway. During negotiationsrecruitment procedures and timetableswere discussed in depth and appropriateassurances obtained. On the basis of the estimated schedulesof project execution, disbursement(in US$ million) would be as follows:

1269 1970 1971 1972 1973 Total

IDA 0.2 3.0 4.6 3.0 o.8 11.6

4.26 Credit funds would be disbursed on the basis of the estimated foreign exchange cost component, 70%, applied to total payments to contractors for civil works and on the basis of actual foreign currency required for payments to consultantsfor studies, engineeringand supervisionand for the technical assistance staffing and training scheme. Any savings in funds provided under the proposed credit should be cancelled.

5. ECONOMICEVALUATION

5.01 The principal types of benefits resulting from improvementof the primary and secondaryroads are the reduction in vehicle operating costs due to improved driving conditions and reductionof distances, induced economic activity as a result of lower transport costs, and savings in road maintenance costs. For the agricultural penetration roads included in the project, the main type of benefit is the net added value of agricultural production induced by their construction. For tea roads the benefits are associated with the increase in tea production jointly inducedby investmentsin tea plantations factories and road construction.

5.02 Rates of return for individual projects vary from 10% to 28% as shown in the followingtable:

Primar Roads

Masaka-Kyotera - 21% Kabale-Rwanda border - 15% Iganga-Mbale - 10%

Secondary Roads

Kayunga-Bale - 13% Kayunga-Nabuganyi - 11% Bukoloto-Jinja - 12% Sezibwa swamp crossing - 15%

Feeder Roads Maiyugo-Akokoro - 13% Mbale-Nkokonjeru - 20% - 18 -

Tea Roads

Toro District - 28% Ankole District - 19% Kigezi District - 16%

5.03 The tea roads form part of a package investmentin a tea project which was appraised in 1967 (Credit 109-UG). At that time, the overall rate of return on the tea project, including the roads, was estimated at 13%. Since that time certain variables in the project have changed, including forecasttea prices and the cost of the roads. The overall rate of return is now estimated at about 10%. However, the high rates of return for these roads shown in the above table, more accurately reflect their economic im- portance, in that these returns account for the fact that substantialinvest- ment has already been sunk into tea plantations and factories and to be fully productivethese investmentsrequire improved roads. Details of the project roads and of the economic analysis are given in Annex 2.

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

6.01 During negotiationsagreement was reached with the Government on the followingpoints:

(a) Concerning road maintenancethe Associationwould send a letter to the Ministry of Works expressing its concern regardingthe need to improve maintenanceof the road network and the views of the Associationwould be submittedto the Cabinet to ensure that the Governmentwill take definite steps to improve the maintenance situation. The Governmentwould provide the details of the maintenancebudget that has been approved for 1969/ 70 and the list of roads that will be resurfaced. In addition the Governmentwould submit to the Associationby February 28, 1970, an interim regravellingand resurfacingprogram for 1970/ 71 (para. 3.14).

(b) Suitable ferry facilitieswill be provided for the roads Kayunga-Nabugawyiand Maiyugo-Akokoro(para. 4.07, 4.10).

(c) Consultantssatisfactory to the Associationwill be employed for constructionsupervision, the road investment and maintenance study, and the feasibilitystudies and detailed engineering which will be financed under the proposed credit (paras. 4.14, 4.16, and 4.17). - 19 -

(d) The road investment and maintenance study will be largely based on transport demand data collected under the East Afri- can Transport Study and will use its policy recommendations as a framework to the extent that they are acceptable to the Government (para. 4.15). Pending the results of the study, major investment decisionson road constructionwill be post- poned (para. 4.16).

(e) A limited reorganizationwill be carried out in the Works Division of the MOW entailing the splitting up of the present Construction and Maintenance Branch into two separate branches, confining the present Planning and Design Branch to design and documentation and the creation of a new branch for advance planning and the establishment of a new branch for administration and costing (para. 4.18).

(f) Concerning technical assistance the personnel will be recruited by the Government in accordance with the guidelines for qualifications, job definitions, salary scales and time periods that have been agreed upon (para. 4.20).

6.02 The project is suitable for an IDA Credit of US$11.6 million equivalent to the Uganda Government.

August 25, 1969 a

6 TABLE 1

UGANDA

SECONDHIG154AY PC'JRECT

Lenlgth of C1a; led Roads - 195? '-966 in km (at June 30 j

Ministry of V-orks Locall/ Bitumen Gravel Authority Total

1958 794 3,870 9,0W7 13,711

1959 794 3,870 9,047 13,711

1960 892 3,797 10,666 15,355 S 1961 ,1145 3,63h 9,792 14,571 1962 1,188 l,19l 17,355 22,737 1963 1,188 ,19g 17,3w 22,737 1964 1,190 h,54o 17,355 23,085 1965 1,188 4,5 158080 23,818 1966 1,278 4,680 18,080 24,038

(1967-68 figures not available but changes were very smkall).

0 1/ Roads maintained by local authorities consist mostly of earth tracks.

Source: Uganda Government Statistical Abstract and Ministry of Wlorlks, Communications and Housing 1967.

May 20, 1969 0a I 0 TABLE 2

UGATDA

SECOND HIGEWAY PROJECT

Revenues from Road Users (U Sh *000)

1961/621/1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/6a.C/

A. From Taxes

Gasoline 20,380 29,100 34,820 37,660 41,260 45,460 49,917 Diesel 5,120 7,000 8,360 9,680 10,840 11,680 12,857 Lubricatingoil 620 700 720 720 780 8h0 882 Tiresand tubes 2,2h0 2,800 3,[00 3,060 3,580 3,860 - Spareparts 2,460 3,620 4,1h0 59460 7,060 6,860 11,004 Cars 3,180 5,560 7,400 9,140 12,300 12,860 12,432 Trucksand buses 1,610 3,240 4,140 6,060 8,560 9,080 9,611 Other vehicles 200 340 220 - 560 500 350

B. From Licenses and Fees

Under traffic ordinance 9,540 9,820 9,480 12,720 13,200 13,660 139880 Drivers'permits 540 720 600 920 1,220 1,400 1,600 Registrationfees 140 500 1,380 1,740 2,420 2,260 2,440 Other fees and licenses 520 660 1,820 1?068 2,060 2 2,210 Total h6,580 614,060 76,780 89,140 103,840 110,620 117,183

1/ Fiscalyear beginsJuly 1. 2/ 1968 tax rates are gasolineU Sh 0.48 per liter,diesel U Sh 0.41 per liter, lubricatingoil U Sh 0.22 per liter,tires U Fh 2.80 per kg. vehiclesand spareparts 305i on c.i.f.prices.

Source: StatisticsDivision, Ministry of Planningand FconomicDevelopment.

May 20, 1969 6

6 TABLE 3

UGANDA

SECONDHIGHWAY PROJECT

Expenditure on Roads by Central Government (U Sh 000,000)

C U R R E N T Year-' Administration0! Maintenance 2 / Total Construction Total

1959/60 16.0 15.0 31.0 28.2 59.2 1960/61 16.0 17.0 33.0 28.0 61.0 1961/62 16.0 17.4 33.4 22.6 56.o 1962/63 16.0 17.0 33.0 8.2 41.2 1963/64 16.0 lb.6 30.6 26.0 56.6 1964/65 17.0 15.8 32.8 14.7 47.5 1965/66 17.0 15.1 32.1 25.4 57.5 1966/67 17.0 14.o 31.0 17.5 48.5 1967/68 18.0 15.7 33.7 37.2 70.9

1/ Fiscal year beginning July 1.

2/ Estimated on the basis of Ninistry of Works overheads which averaged about U Sh 32 million for the years 1964/65-1967/68 of which about 50% is related to roads.

3/ In addition, expenditure by local government authorities on road maintenance was about U Sh 15 million during 1967/68 and U Sh 12/1t million annually for previous years. Local government authority license revenue was about half this sum.

Source: Budget Estimates

May 20, 1969 6

6 * -~~~~UW

SEXL)NDHIGHWA! PFJECT

DesLen Standards

Class I-A Claps I Class II Clam III Elat & Flat & Flat & Flat & Roli NiXIs NountainDu1 Rini HLL MSoanta-lrwsQ RollirA L12 Yilvalinpu 12i19 R4llaI b

Desiga speed, mph 60 50 40 50 )40 30 40 30 ** 30 20 *

Carriageway width, ft (ainima) 22 22 22 20* 20* 20* 14 14 14 10 10 10

Roadvaj width, ft (inim) 34 34 34 32 32 32 24 24 24 20 20 16 Shoulder width ft (inim) 6 6 6 6* 6* 6* 5 5 5 5 5 4 Width of right-of-way, ft 00

Ruling gradient, percent 5 6 7 5 6 7 6 7 8 7 8 9 8% for 8% for 8% for 8% for 8% for 10% for 10% for 12% for Maxim gradient, percent 1,000 ft 1,000 ft 1,000 ft 1,000 ft 1,000 ft 1,000 ft 1,000 ft 1,000 ft

Mininim stopping aight distance, ft 650 425 300 425 300 200 300 200 200 *

KSnim overtaking sight distance, ft 1,500 1,200 1,000 1,200 1,000 500 1,000 500 500 ** 4*

Kinisum radius curves, ft 2,100 1,450 900 1,600 900 450 goo 6o00* 600 ** ff

Width of structure (curb to curb) ft 24 24 24 12

Design wheel load, lbs 9,000 9,000 7,50O 4,000

Bridge loading H-16 H-16 H-16 H-16

* Figures for paved roads, for gravel roads, the carriagewar width is increased to 22 ft and sh(lder widths reduced to 5 ft. The roadway width remains the sae for both types of airface.

** To be decided by individual cases.

May 20, 1969 6

6 TABLE 5

UGANDA

SECONDHIGHWAY PROJECT

Licensed Motor Vehicles.L!

(1957-67 )/ (In Vehicle Units '000)

Commercial Cars Vehicles Buses Total

1957 17.6 9.4 0.5 27.5

1958 19.9 10.1 0.6 30.6

1959 21.0 9.8 o.6 31.4

1960 22.6 9.8 0.6 33.0

1961 22.9 9.5 o.6 33.0

1962 22.2 9.6 0.6 32.4 1963 23.8 10.1 0.7 34.6

1964 25.8 10.9 0.7 37.14

1965 27.5 11.8 0.8 0o.l

1966 28.0 13.0 0.9 41.9

1967 29.3 13.8 0.9 44.0

Growth rates/

1957-67 5.2 3.9 6.o0.8

1962-60' 5.6 7.5 8.5 6.3

1/ Includes all Government vehicles except military vehicles.

2/ As at December 31 of each year.

3/ In % per annum.

Source: Uganda Government Statistical Abstract (1967)

June 13, 1969 g *S TABIE 6

UGANDA

SECONDHIGHWAY PROJECT

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Sales ('000 tons 1/)

Gasoline Diesel Total 1957 59 25 84 1958 61 30 91

1959 62 31 93

1960 63 33 96 1961 60 33 93 1962 60 34 94

1963 66 35 101 1964 70 41 111

1965 72 5 117 1966 73 48 121 1967 76 51 127

Annual GroTth Rates in % 1957-67 2.5 7 4 1962-67 5 8.5 6.5

1/ Original figures were in imperial gallons which have been convertedto tons on the basis of 285 gallonsequals one ton.

Source: UgandaGovernment Statistical Abstract 1967.

August25, 1969 0 0 TABLE 7

UGAMDA

SECONDHIGHWAY PROJECT

Project Cost Estimates

(US$ '000 Equivalent)

I. Construction Length (km) Local Foreign Total

A. Primary Roads

(i) Nasaka-4yotera 47 555 1,295 1,850 (ii) Kabale-.RwandaBorder 23 285 665 550 (iii) Iganga-14bale 97 660 1,540 2,200

B. SecondaryRoads

(iv) Kayunga-Bale 45 180 420 600 (v) Kayunga-Nabuganyi 19 81 189 270 (vi) Sezibwa Swamp Crossing 2 99 231 330 (vii) Bukoloto-Jinja 45 390 910 1,300

C. Feeder Roads

(viii) lIbale-Nkokonjeru 20 240 560 800 (ix) Maiyungo-Akokoro 37 105 215 350

D. Tea Roads

(x) Toro Tea Roads 70 195 455 650 (xi) Ankole Tea Roads 120 210 450 700 (xii) Kigezi Tea Roads 140 330 770 1,100

Total Construction 665 3,330 7,770 11,100

II. Consultants'Services

(xiii) Supervisionof Construction 180 420 600 (xiv) Road Investment& Maintenance Study 90 210 300 (xv) FeasibilityStudies and Detailed Engineering (400 km) 300 700 1,000

III. Technical Assistance

(xvi) Eleven men for three years 150 350 500

Iv. Contingencies

(xvii) Physical 10% 400 950 1,350 (xviii) Price Contingencies 11% 450 1 200 1,650 Total 4,900 11600 16,500

August 25, 1969 . ANNEX 1 Page 1

UGANDA

SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Description of Positions Included in Technical Assistance Program

Chief Engineers (four) i. Chief Planning Engineer ii. Chief Materials Engineer iii. Chief Design and Documentation Engineer iv. Chief Road Maintenance Engineer

1. Candidates for these posts should hold an engineering degree of a recognized university or an equivalent qualification. They should have had at least eight years post-graduate/post-qualification experience with consulting engineers, a government department or contractor specializing in road works in underdeveloped countries; at least four of these should have been spent in their specialization. The training of Uganda engineers and technical staff will also form an important aspect of their duties.

Transport Economist

2. Candidates should hold an economics degree of a recognized university. They should also have had at least five years experience as transport economists with particular emphasis on highways, two years of which should have been in underdeveloped countries. The successful candidate will be required to collect and analyze economic data related to the transport requirements of Uganda, to analyze transport costs, operate and improve the existing traffic census system and analyze investment proposals from an economic view- point, with the aim of optimizing the highway investment and maintenance program of the Uganda Government. He would also assist in the training of Uganda transport economists.

Cost Accountant

3. Candidates must be graduates of a business administration school or a chartered or cost and works accountant. They must be familiar with highways and stores costing systems and in particular with job costing. They should possess at least six years of experience in cost accounting, preferably with a highway or some other civil engineering agency. The successful candidate will be required to organize and administer a proper system of costing for highway maintenance operations to facilitate economic and administrative decisions. He will also be required to train local staff in cost accounting positions. * 0 to I ARNEX 1 Page 2

Senior Executive Engineers (five)

i. Senior Executive Engineer: Maintenance ii. " " " : Construction iii. i: Design and Documentation iv. "" : Mechanical v. . : for Local Administration

4. Candidates for these jobs should hold an engineering degree of a recognized university, an engineering college or an equivalent qualification. They should have had experience of at least six years, four of which have been spent in their specialization, preferably part of it in road works in underdeveloped countries.

August25, 1969 0 0 II e ANNEX2 Page 1

UGANDA

SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Basis for Economic Evaluation

A. Traffic Data (Table 1)

1. Present traffic volumes are based on counts especially taken by the MOWduring 1967 and 1968 for the project roads. For the Iganga-Mbale road, O&D surveys were taken in 1968 by the MOWand the Economist Intelli- gence Unit (EIU) on the Mbale-Torororoad, to determinethe volume of traffic with origin or destinationsof Jinja and beyond. For the Kabale Rwanda border road, diverted traffic estimates have been prepared by the French consultant, BCEOM, for the Rwanda Transport Study.

2. Traffic forecasts are based on growth trends in GNP, vehicle population, fuel consumption and the limited information available on traffic growth rates. It has been assumed that normal growth will be faster for trunk roads than for feeder roads, but induced traffic will be more significant for the latter.

B. Vehicle Operating Cost Data (Table 2)

3. Vehicle operating costs have been obtained from the EIU. Those for gravel and earth roads appeared to be too low compared with data available from other sources. EIU data for such roads were, therefore, adjusted accordingto the physical coefficientsin the QRUS 1/ paper priced with Uganda input prices. The following is a comparison for estimated vehicle operating costs for existing and proposed facilitiesduring opening year.

^ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~inUS}/km Present Facility _ Proposed Facility Light Light Vehicles Trucks Buses Vehicles Trucks Buses

Masaka-Kyotera 6.2 13.4 17.4 4.1 8.4 10.9 Kabale-Rwanda Border 8.8 22.6 - 5.2 12.2 - Iganga-Mbale 7.0 17.1 21.2 5.2 12.2 15.8 Kayunga-Nabuganyi 7.5 18.3 23.8 5.2 12.2 15.8 Kayunga-Bale 7.6 19.5 25.3 5.2 12.2 15.8 Sezibwa Crossing 10.2 21.0 27.2 4.1 8.4 10.9 Bukoloto-Jinja 6.0 12,6 16.4 4.1 8.4 10.9

4. For gravel and earth roads it has been assumed that after traffic exceeds an ADT of 350 vehicles, vehicle operating costs go up, due to (i)

1/ Quantificationof Road User Savings, World Bank Staff OccasionalPaper No. 2. 0

0 ANNEX 2 Page 2 speed reduction on account of dust; and (ii) poor surface conditionsdue to surface deterioration. It has been conservativelyassumed that within an ADT of 350-450 range they go up by 10%, and for every additional 50 vehicles, they go up by another 10%, an ADT of 500 being the limit which will be reached during the economic lives of all but one of the project roads (20 years for gravel and 25 for bituminous roads). This limit is estimated on a "without" basis, based on normal traffic growth alone, and ignoring induced or diverted traffic.

5. For maintenancecosts fixed costs are US$300 per km for gravel and US$600per km for bituminous roads per annum; variable costs are US$2.44 per vehicle for gravel and earth roads and US$0.88 per vehicle for bituminous roads. These figures are based on Eastern African (Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania) experience. For gravel roads the variable component has been increasedby 10% for every 50 vehicles after ADT's of 300 are exceeded.

C. Primary Roads

Masaka-Kyotera(47 km, US$1.85 million)

6. The project section runs through extensivelyfarmed hilly country, coffee being the main crop. Further west, cotton is the most important item. South of Kyotera there is a sugar factory with a yearly capacity of 15,000 tons; its total production is carried by truck to Kampala along the project road. Present traffic ranges from 600 vehicles per day at Masaka to 300 per day at Kyotera. The proposed investmentwill earn a rate of return of about 21%.

Kabale-RwandaBorder (23 km, US$0.95 million)

7. This is the Uganda section of the projected Kabale-Biumba-Kigali road which will become Rwanda's principal international transport artery to the sea at Mombasa, Kenya. BCEOM's Transport Survey for Rwanda confirms that inland transportation costs for Rwanda's international trade are mini- mized when channelled through Mombasa rather than through Tanzania's port of Dar es Salaam via Burundi and Kigoma, or through Congo (Kinshasa) ports on the Atlantic Ocean.

8. Rwanda's international trade amounting to about 80,000 tons is presently shipped through Mombasa over a road via Kakitumba, to the east of the proposed road. The distance from Kigali to Mbarara via Kakitumba is 315 km, while via Kabale it is only 235 km, a distance saving of 80 km by the project road. The reason for the present use of the longer road via Kakitumba is that the existing earth road between Kabale-Biumba-Kigali can- not be travelled by medium or heavy trucks.

9. An ADT of about 50 vehicles will be diverted to the project road after its upgrading, from the existing longer connection,and as a result, total vehicle journey costs from Kigali to Mbarara will be halved. In addition there will be a reduction in vehicle operating costs for present traffic on the existing road from Kigali to Kabale with an estimated 1967 * S ANNEX 2 Page 3

ADT of 50 vehicles. The Ugandan section can be justifiedonly when viewed within the frameworkof the larger Kabale-Kigaliproject, which is estimated to cost approximatelyUS$6 million. The Kigali-Ugandaborder section is currently undergoing detailed engineering, and is being prepared for an IDA appraisal mission in late 1969. The rate of return for the entire project is estimated at 15%. Most of the traffic on the road, even on the Uganda section, would be Rwanda traffic and most of the quantifiablebenefits of the proposed project will accrue to Rwanda. However, the indirect benefits to Uganda, as a result of handling more of Rwanda's external trade, would be very large.

Iganga-Mbale Road (97 km. US$2.2 million)

10. This is a road which will provide a new and shorter trunk connection between Kampala and northeastern Uganda via Mbale. For parts of the Bugisu-Bukedi districts affected by the projected road, the distance to Kampala will be reduced by up to 150 km. The two districts are heavily populated with close to a million people. About 40,000 tons of cotton, 100,000 tons of groundnuts and 20,000 tons of coffee are grown in the districts. In addition, subsistencecrops like cassava, finger millet, plantain,beans and maize which total over one million tons, are also grown though mainly locally consumed.

11. The present ferry across a 3.2 km swamp takes about one hour including waiting time, and its capacity is limited to one 6-ton truck or bus. Most of the agricultural produce in the immediate zone of influence of the road take the longer road to Kampala via Mbale because of the poor condition of the existing road and the limited capacity of the ferry crossing. The 1967 ADT on the road was 60 vehicles,most of which consistedof local traffic not using the ferry; it is estimated that, once the embankment is constructed and the road is paved to bitumen standards, an additional 270 would be diverted from the present longer connection between Mbale and Kampala via Tororo. The districts of Bukedi and Bugisu have additional land potential suitable for cotton, groundnuts and rice and the projected road will encourage its use by providing a much shorter and cheaper connection to Kampala.

12. At the time of the negotiations, however, the detailed engineering of the embankmentwas still substantially incomplete. Since the economic justificationof the embankmentwas found to be very sensitiveto the cost estimatesthat had not been adequately firmed up, its constructionhas not been included in the present project. Once this embankmentwas left out the expected diversion of traffic referred to in para. 11 would not be realized with or without an asphalt pavement which was therefore also left out of the project.

13. The rate of return on the proposed road based on Class I gravel standards serving local traffic alone was estimated at 10%. S l. ANNEX 2 Page 4

D. Secondary Roads

Kayunga-Bale (4vkm, us$0.6 million)

Kayunga-Nabuganyi (19 km, US$0.27 million)

Bukoloto-Jinja (47 km, US$1.3 million)

14. These three secondary roads are situated in the populous East Mengo district of Southern Uganda and link some of its rural areas to the primary road network. The areas directly affected are those of the Busoga district and the Bugerere county of East Mengo. They have a population of close to 800,000 which is among the economicallymost active in the country, especially in agriculture. The major quantities produced are 40,000 tons of cotton, 30,000 tons of groundnuts and 10,000 tons of coffee as well as large quantities of subsistence crops. In addition, there is considerablecom- mercial activity, and small workshops have been established in the numerous villages along the roads. Traffic on these roads in 1967 ranged between 80 and 110 vehicles per day. They are earth roads that are poorly maintained. High vehicle operating costs constitute a factor inhibiting economic growth in the zones of influence. The rates of return for the proposed investments are 13%, 11%, and 12% respectively.

Sezibwa Swamp Crossing (2 km, US$0.33 million)

15. The Sezibwa crossing is a low standard causeway on the secondary road between Kayunga and Kalagi which constitutesa bottleneck that slows traffic considerably. The 1967 ADT on the crossing was 560 vehicles which is above its economic capacity. The proposed investment for its widening on the basis of Class I gravel standardshas a rate of return of 15%.

E. Feeder Roads

Maiyu o-Akokoro (37 km. US$0.35 million)

16. The Maiyugo-Akokororoad will serve agriculturein Meruzi county in North Central Uganda (Lango region) which is bounded on two sides by the Nile. The area was relativelyunderdeveloped until recently due to the presence of tsetse fly. During the past few years this has been eliminated, and the area has been opened for development and internal immigration from the neighboring Moroto county. The county has a fishing industry and an un- utilized land potential suitable for grains, groundnuts and ranching.

17. In the vicinity of the road, a 42,000 acre ranching project for 10,000 cattle is being developedat an investmentcost of US$500,000 which will have a gross annual output of US$200,000 valued at ex farm prices. When the road investment is considered jointly with the one for ranching, a rate of return of 13% is arrived at based on net added value. With other induced benefits taken into account, the expected rate of return is substantially higher. lI* a 0 ANNEX 2 Page 5

Mbale-NkokonJeru(20Aki, US$o08 million)

18. The proposed Mbale-Nkokonjeru connection is a penetratilon road to the high plateau area of Mount Elgon which is one of the few areas in Uganda with both a temperate climate and good agricultural land. It is suitable for the cultivation of coffee, wheat, and vegetables and fruits normally grown in temperate zones. Despite the absence of a road, coffee, and small amounts of vegetables like carrots and potatoes are carried down the mountain along foot paths on the heads of villagers in 15-kg lots. The wages of a porter for doing the round trip that takes two days to-and-from the market at Mbale is U Sh 7. On this basis, the cost of bringing in one ton of vegetables to Mbale is about US$65 as against under US$1.00 by truck.

19. Present vegetable yields are very low (one ton per acre) due to a large wastage factor and poor cultivation methods. Present coffee yields are also low (200 kg of parchment to the acre). The reason for this is the incidence of disease, the absence of fertilizers, and inadequate spraying and extension work due to the absence of a road. The area served by the proposed road has timber and tourism potential, both of which require a road.

20. The rate of return for the investment has been calculated on the assumption that with the proposed road, it will be possible in five years to double coffee yields per annum,increase the acreage under vegetables from 200 to 300 acres and also double yields per acre. The gross value of the additional production is about US$243,000 which would yield an estimated net value of about US$l55,000. To this, a benefit of US$64 per ton should be added for the 1,500 tons of produce which is presently carried in headloads at a cost of US$65 per ton compared with a cost of US$l per truck. Total benefits therefore add up to US$251,000beginning with the fifth year after the opening date which yields a rate of return of 20% for the road investment. Excluded from this calculationare possible increases in marketed subsistence produce, tourism income, timber, and possibilitiesof dairy and wheat farming development. If one or more of these possibilitiesis realized the rate of return would be boosted substantially.

F. Tea Roads

Toro Tea Roads (70 kin us$o.65 million)

Ankole Tea Roads (120 km, US$0.7 million)

Kigezi Tea Roads (140 kmi US$1.1 million)

21. The tea roads have already been appraised in connection with the IDA Credit 109-UG for tea cultivationas part of a joint investment package consisting of tea plantations,factories and roads. At that time the overall program was estimatedto earn a return of 13%. In the present appraisal the rate of return of this original package was recalculated on the basis of the same assumptions and price inputs used in connection with Credit 109-UG, except that the 10% decline in tea prices since the date of Credit 109-UG I a0 * I ANNEX 2 Page 6 and the slight rise in the estimated cost of providingthe roads were taken into account. On this basis a rate of return for the tea project including tea roads of slightly over 10% appears likely.

22. The economic importanceof these tea roads is best appreciated, however, when it is noted that substantialinvestments in tea plantationand factories have already taken place since the start of the execution of the tea project in 1966, and that these are sunk costs. Comparingthe economic situationswith and without the proposed tea road investmentsindicates a rate of return of 28% for those in Toro, 19% for those in Ankole, and 16% for those in Kigezi.

August 25, 1969 6

I 0 UGANDA

SECONDHIGHWAY PROJECT

1967/68ADT for Primary and Secondary Pro.iect Roads and Traffic Growth Assumptions

Primar Roads _ Secondary Roads Kabale i4asaka Rwanda Iganga Kayunga Kayunga Sezibwa Bukoloto Kyotera Bordpr 1/ Mbale Nabu F,.a Bale Crossing Jinja 1967/68 ADT on Existing Road

Automobiles (A) 211 38 26 54 91 431 157 Trucks (T) 101 8 31 23 18 108 22 Buses (B) 23 2 5 1 2 22 6 Total 335 48 62 78 111 561 185

Growth Assumptions A T B A T B A T B A T B A T B A T B A T B (normal traffic)

1968-72 5 7 8 4 5 3 4 6 6 4 7 7 4 77 5 7 8 4 7 7 1973-77 5 7 7 4 5 3 4 5 5 4 6 6 4 6 6) 5 7 7 4 6 6 1978-95 5 6 6 4 5 3 3 4 4 3 5 5 3 5 5' 4 6 6 3 5 5

Induced Traffic Elasticity 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0 1.5

1/ About 30 light yehies arrlrucks will be diverted to the road with an assumed growth rate of 5%.per annum and with a saving in distance of 81 km.

Aug"st 25, 1969 3 -~

6 UGANDA

SECONDHIGHWAY PROJECT

Vehicle Operatina Costs (in US¢ perim n) Vehicle type 7_ton truck/ _ 62-2assen l/ 20-ton trailer1/ Light vehicle2/ Surface type Bitumen Gravel Earth Bitumen Gravel Earth Bituren Gravel Earth itmn G l Earth Effective speed km/h 70 55 40 70 55 40 60 40 25 - - - 1. Depreci-ation 1439 1.91 2.78 2.09 2.96 4.26 2.18 2.96 4.26 1.2 1.6 2.5 2. Interest 0.44 0.52 0.52 0.87 1.04l 1.31 0.96 1.22 1.48 0.5 0.6 0.8 3. Insurance 0.17 0.17 0.26 0.35 0.44 0.70 0.26 0.44 0.61 0.2 0.3 0.4 4. Wages 1.74 1.82 1.91 1.74 2.00 2.35 2.96 3.39 3.92 0.7 0.9 1.2 5 iMaintenance 1474 2.52 3.48 1.91 2.70 3.83 3.05 4.26 6.09 0.4 0.5 0.7 6. Ft1 1.48 1.74 2.00 1.65 1.91 2.27 2.61 3,05 4.00 0.7 7. 0,8 0.9 Oil 0.17 0.17 0.26 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.52 o.52 0.70 0.1 0.1 8. 0.1 Tires and tubes 1.31 1.48 1.74 1.91 2,18 2.61 5.31 5.92 7.05 0.3 0.3 0.4 Total 8.44 10.33 12.95 10.87 13.58 17.68 17.85 21.76 28.11 4.1 5.1 7.0

1/ Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (East Africa Transport Stuty) Surce: United Research Institute

August 25, 1969 I a l UGANDA: SECONDHIGHWAY PROJECT ORGANIZATION OF THE MINISTRY OF WORKS, COMMUNICATIONSAND HOUSING

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