Famine Early Warning System NETwork -

MONTHLY REPORT March 20, 2001

SUMMARY

· The extreme southern part of Zambia has now attained normal rainfall after resumption of rains in that area at the beginning of March. In the first dekad of March, the country received mostly light to moderate rainfall.

· Parts of Northwestern Province are experiencing a serious shortage of commercial maize. This was confirmed by FAO’s visit to Chavuma and Zambezi Districts. The effect of the prolonged dry spell and loss of crops in the extreme southern part of Zambia will be felt by July.

· Prices of maize grain and maize meal remained relatively low and stable at a time when they normally reach their yearly peak.

· Inflation dropped slightly to 29.1 percent in February. Thus far, the Zambian Kwacha has appreciat ed against major foreign currencies in March, unlike in February when it depreciated.

1. AGROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS

During February, a number of areas continued receiving heavy rainfall, particularly central Zambia, and parts of in the north. The extreme southern parts of the country received enough rainfall by the first dekad (10-day period) of March to recover to their usual seasonal levels. So far this season, the country has received normal to above-normal rainfall overall.

During February, a number of areas continued receiving heavy rainfall. Reports from agrometeorologists indicated that in the second and third dekads of February, the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) was oscillating over central and southern parts of Zambia, resulting in widespread rainfall over those areas.

During the second dekad, central Zambia recorded the highest rainfall, ranging from 89 mm in Mongu (Western Province) to 165 mm in Ndola (). All other areas received less than 80 mm of rainfall. In the third dekad of February, heavy rains were recorded in different parts of the country

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such as Kaoma-131 mm and Mongu-102 mm (Western Province); Lusaka-127 mm (); Kawambwa-125 mm (Luapula Province); Livingstone-111 mm (Southern Province); and Lundazi-102 mm and Chipata-86 mm (Eastern Province). These rains were all the more remarkable since the third dekad was only 8 days long (February 21-28), rather than 10 as usual.

By February 28, most parts of Zambia had received enough rainfall to reach normal cumulative seasonal levels. Above-normal rainfall was mostly confined to the central parts of the country — Copperbelt Province, Lusaka Province, most of Central Province, the extreme northeastern part of Southern Province, the eastern part of Northwestern Province, of Eastern Province, and southern Luapula Province. Following lower rainfall during February, cumulative rainfall in Northern and Eastern Provinces slipped from above-normal levels, as a result of previously very heavy rains, to near normal levels.

Following the resumption of rains in early February in extreme southern Zambia, all rainfall deficit-affected districts were registering normal rainfall by the last dekad of February, except for Livingstone, which had still not attained its normal rainfall position

Figure 1 compares cumulative rainfall this year with last year and normal for selected areas, as of February 28. As shown, a number of areas reported much above-normal cumulative rainfall.

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FEWS NET Zambia Monthly Report – March 20, 2001

During the first dekad of March, Zambia received mostly light to moderate rainfall with extreme southern Zambia attaining normal levels of cumulative rainfall. Generally, most grain crops are at a late grain-filling to maturity stage, while other crops are at a flowering to early fruit-formation stage. Crop conditions vary from good/fair to poor. The poor crops are those that are significantly affected by extreme conditions — excessive rainfall or deficit rainfall — during the critical flowering-to-fruit -formation stage of production.

2. HAZARD CONDITIONS

Adverse rainfall conditions that have affected parts of the country have had a negative impact on some crops, particularly maize. Field trips have confirmed this negative impact in areas of Northwestern, Eastern and Southern Provinces, and of Lusaka Province. The area most affected by floods remains Luangwa District, where at least 200 people have been displaced. Those not displaced show no signs of need for immediate food assistance but their own production is likely to run out a little earlier.

Some districts in North Western Province, on the other hand, have a shortage of grain, as confirmed by the FAO visit to Zambezi and Chavuma and by the government’s Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit’s (DMMU) visit to . According to the FAO trip report, households interviewed indicated that they would be able to purchase maize if it was made sufficiently available. The price that consumers have to pay for maize is additional evidence of a severe shortage in the area.

In (Eastern Province), WFP/DMMU estimated that grain losses could be as high as 40 percent. The deficit-rainfall areas of Kazungula and Sinazongwe Districts show no signs of immediate need for food assistance, despite an expected significant loss of maize due to permanent wilting of early- planted crops. However, people in the affected areas will feel the sharp effect of the crop loss by July.

With heavy rains continuing into February and March for a number of areas, particularly in the central part of the country, damage to crops (mostly grain) has been reported.

Major areas that have experienced flooding either as a result of rivers overflowing their banks or excessive rainfall are the lowlands of the Luangwa and Zambezi Rivers, Chilubi and Mpulungu Districts (Northern Province), various districts in Copperbelt Province, and Serenje, Mkushi, and Chibombo Districts (Central Province).

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FEWS NET Zambia Monthly Report – March 20, 2001

Figure 2 shows possibly affected areas that may need close monitoring. The areas in the extreme south of the country were those affected by prolonged dry spells during December and January.

FIG 2: POSSIBLE MAJOR AREAS OF RAINFALL/FLOOD AND DRY SPELL PROBLEMS IN 2000/2001 SEASON ChiengiKaputa Mpulungu Mbala Nchelenge Nakonde Kawambwa Mporokoso Mungwi Isoka Mwense Luwingu Kasama Chinsali Chilubi Mansa Chama Samfya

Milenge Mwinilunga

Solwezi Lundazi

Mpelembe Serenje Chavuma Kabompo Mambwe Lufwanyama Zambezi Chipata Mufumbwe Kasempa Kapiri Mposhi Lukulu Mkushi PetaukeKatete Chadiza Nyimba

Mumbwa Chibombo Kalabo Kaoma Chongwe Mongu Lusaka Luangwa Kafue Senanga Itezhi-tezhi Mazabuka Namwala FLOOD/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL Monze Siavonga Choma Sesheke Gwembe PROLONGED DRY SPELL Shang'ombo Kazungula Kalomo Sinazongwe NO PROBLEM/NO INFORMATION

Livingstone SOURCE: FEWSNET ZAMBIA

FEWS NET confirmed problems in some of these areas during verification trips to Southern Province, as did FAO in North-western Province, and WFP/DMMU in Eastern Province and Luangwa District (in Lusaka Province).

2.1. Southern Province

FEWS NET’s visit to the deficit rainfall areas of Kazungula and Sinazongwe confirms that maize is the most affected crop. Some of the maize had permanently wilted. Generally, the prolonged dry spell has a much greater impact on maize and a much smaller impact on legumes (groundnuts and cowpeas), which were in good condition. These areas in Southern Province affected by the prolonged dry spell are relatively low-producing areas and usually rely on grain purchases from October to April.

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FEWS NET Zambia Monthly Report – March 20, 2001

In , rains in most areas started in mid-November and began for others in early December. A prolonged dry spell was experienced from mid- December through January. The situation looks more promising in the southwestern part of the district. The area bordering Western Province (Sikaunzwe District) has large fields with very good crop stands. Planting here is normally done late (end of December). Maize from the previous season was still available and being supplied to other areas. Closer to Livingstone the situation was mixed, with poor crop stands for early-planted grain while the late-planted was in relatively better condition. The early-planted grain, especially maize, was scorched with little to harvest. However, the area planted to maize was generally small because households had other important sources of income such as fishing and livestock production. It is important to note is that people in southwestern Kazungula still had many cattle because they are free from both foot and mouth and corridor diseases.

In central Kazungula (Musokotwane area), the early-planted maize and millet were stunted and scorched, with almost nothing to harvest. The late-planted crop was doing better, with most having partially recovered from the effect of the dry spell. The absence of cattle due to corridor disease was pronounced and had translated into a significant reduction of cultivated land due to lack of draft power. Households relied on grain purchases, as normal for this time of the year. With few cattle left, most households were relying on beer brewing using sorghum, which is mostly purchased from the Livingstone market at low prices, along with vegetable production as alternative sources of income.

The northern part of the had a relatively good crop stand, whereas the southern part was the most affected by the dry spell. Similar to Kazungula, most of the early-planted crops had permanently wilted, although the late-planted crop was in better condition. More land was put to drought resistant small grain crops here compared with central Kazungula and the Kuyuma variety of sorghum planted in late December was doing very well. This area also had a reasonably high number of cattle, which people could fall back on, as a source of food and income. Other income sources included fishing, sale of livestock, vegetable production, and sale of labor. Most people ran out of their own produced grain last September, as is normal. Since the 2001 harvest is not yet ready for consumption, households were mostly relying on purchase of grain from the northern plateau area of Sinazongwe District and . As southern Sinazongwe District received below-normal rainfall, the 2001 production season will not be as good; people can expect to run out of their own production before this coming September.

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2.2. North-western Province

In North-western Province, the FAO and the government’s Disaster Management and Mitigation Unit (DMMU) made separate visits to the area. The DMMU performed a rapid reconnaissance survey covering , whereas the FAO covered the other two districts, Chavuma and Zambezi. For both districts, the FAO team observed that the west banks most likelyare flooded due to high water levels in the Zambezi River. Crops grown in these areas include rice, maize, and cassava. Although fishing is the main source of income, flooding problems make this impossible. Based on the FAO’s trip report, the west bank is currently faced with food security problems because of the loss of income from fishing as well as the negative impact of floods and waterlogging on their crops.

Maize in these areas was very expensive, ranging between K5,000 (US$1.44) and K7,000 (US$2.02) per three-quarters of a kg (FAO data). This is equivalent to the cost of 15 kg maize in Lusaka (where prices range between K6,000 and K7,000 per 15 kg). Other major foods that are normally found at these markets such as rice, cassava, and fish were not available. This implies a very serious food availability problem in the area. Further information from the DMMU, which visited parts of Northwestern Province, corroborates the shortage of grain in parts of Northwestern Province.

2.3. Eastern Province and Luangwa District (Lusaka Province)

A team of WFP and DMMU visited Nyimba, Mambwe, and Chadiza Districts in Eastern Province. With Nyimba and Mambwe made up of both valley and plateau, they are subject to the variable conditions pertaining to each, with plateau areas receiving good rain and valley areas normally prone to drought and therefore food insecurity.

In Nyimba District, crop production in both the valley and plateau areas had been adversely affected by heavy rain. Maize crop loss was estimated at 40 percent.

In , the situation varied from areas such as Kakumbi, where heavy rains had not affected the crop, to Mkhanya, which had lost a significant amount of the crop.

In Chadiza District, which was visited to verify food insecurity problems, the team confirmed reports that villagers were trekking to in search of food. Based on FEWS NET knowledge of that area from field visits, this is a normal practice for this time of year.

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FEWS NET Zambia Monthly Report – March 20, 2001

In Luangwa District (Lusaka Province), 200 people were officially estimated as displaced as of mid-February (this figure may have increased since then). Flooding in that district has been blamed on flooding of the Luangwa River, partially brought on by the necessary opening of the Kariba floodgates. So far, two gates are fully opened, while a third was partially opened at the close of the first week of March. Much of the lowland crop in Luangwa District is reported to have been lost.

Rapid reconnaissance surveys were conducted in some of the excessive rainfall/flooded areas by multidisciplinary organizations headed by the DMMU in early March. Its report is not yet available.

3. MARKET SITUATION

The price of maize generally remained relatively stable with slight reductions in some cases. This implies that there is still adequate maize supply on the market even as the end of the 2000/01 marketing season approaches. Furthermore, this year’s prices are still very much below those of the past two years. The average price of maize at the Agriculture Commodity Exchange as of March 15 was about US$88/MT. This is far below last year’s price of US$170/MT and the 1999 price of US$200/MT. As a result of stable maize grain prices, maize meal prices have also remained relatively stable, to the advantage of consumers.

Generally, the price of maize grain remained relatively stable in February and early March compared to prices in January. In Lusaka, for instance, monthly average prices fell by 2 percent while increasing 6 percent in the Copperbelt, according to Food Reserve Agency prices. The offer price at the Agricultural Commodity Exchange (ACE) dropped by 5 percent, from K18,500/50 kg in late February to K17,500/50 kg, on March 15.

A visit to the main public market in Lusaka revealed that traders are purchasing maize grain from farmers for as little as K13,000 (US$3.76)/50 kg and selling it wholesale at K18,000 (US$5.20)/50 kg. Smaller quantities are selling at K6,500 (US$1.88)/15 kg, which is very low for this time of the year. Using the ACE offer price, the average price of maize is about US$88/MT (at K3,460:US$1). During the same period last year, maize was going for about US$170/MT and in 1999 for about US$200/MT. The bottom line is that current prices are much below those of the last two years. This shows that maize continues to be in good supply even as the end of the 2000/01 season marketing season approaches in April.

Consequently, maize meal prices have remained relatively stable or declined marginally, to the advantage of consumers. Breakfast meal prices rose about 1 percent between mid-January to early March in the major markets surveyed,

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but higher-quality roller meal prices fell 6 percent, based on FRA prices. Information from the Central Statistical Office also suggests a slight reduction in the price of maize meal between January and February.

4. MACRO ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Inflation dropped slightly to 29.1 percent in February. Thus far, the Zambian Kwacha has appreciated against major foreign currencies in March, unlike February when it depreciated. This was partially attributed to the newly introduced foreign exchange auctioning system.

4.1. Inflation Rate

Nationwide, inflation dropped slightly from an annual rate of 30.0 percent in January to 29.1 percent in February. One major contributor to the fall in inflation was the reduction in the price of maize meal.

4.2. Exchange Rate

After relative stability in the second week of February, the Kwacha depreciated from US$1:K3,650 recorded in mid-February to about US$1:K3,680 at the end of February. By the second week of March, the Kwacha regained strength, reaching a selling rate of US$1:K3,460 (Citibank rate), marking a 6 percent appreciation. This was attributed to a drop in demand for dollars and the effect of the newly introduced foreign exchange auction by the Central Bank. The Central Bank functions as an intermediary between the wholesale foreign exchange suppliers and the commercial banks. In effect, all significant deals are negotiated by the Central Bank, which helps instill confidence by putting a halt to volatile exchange rates.

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