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Ukraine, Russia and the EU (MANTRA-Rivers)

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Ukraine, Russia and the EU (MANTRA-Rivers) Project Management of Transboundary Rivers between Ukraine, Russia and the EU (MANTRA-Rivers) SWAT Model Application for Simulating Nutrient Emission from Small Agricultural Catchment in the Desna River Basin (Ukraine) Valeriy Osypov, Nataliia Osadcha Ukrainian Hydrometeorogical Institute (UHMI), The State Service of Ukraine on Emergencies and National Academy of Science of Ukraine, Nauki avenue, 37, Kyiv, Ukraine, 03028 [email protected] Management of Transboundary Rivers between Ukraine, Russia and the EU (MANTRA-Rivers) The Desna river The Western Bug (Russia and Ukraine) (Ukraine and EU) Kaluga Desnogorsk Bolva Tula A. Assessment of the status quo Belarus Zhukovka Russia B. Comparison of data and methods Bryansk Orel Trubchevsk C. Definition of a future strategy Novgorod- Siverskii Kursk D. Promote trilateral dialogue and Chernigov cooperation Ukraine Sumy Kiyv Latvia Riga Russia Jēkabpils The Western Dvina Zapadnaya Dvina (Russia, Belarus, EU) Daugavpils Polotsk Lithuania Novopolotsk Vitebsk Smolensk Vilnius Belarus 2 What is the work related to? 2014 Implementation 2024 WFD Drinking Nitrates Eutrophication Water Water Vulnerable Policy zones Urban Waste Flood Monitoring Water risk Marine Strategy 3 From small scale to large scale A. Holovesnya river catchment (30km2) B. Desna river catchment (89 000km2) 4 Study area: the Holovesnya river catchment 220m Crops Dark Alfisol (dark-grey soils) Mixed forest Alfisol (grey forest soils) 106m Gauge Range Grasses Chernozem 30.37km2 Orchard 6.33km Buildings Water Roads Land use Soils 5 Is the discharge changing? Residual mass curve of discharges = ( ) � − − 6 � To what parameters is the model sensitive? Surface flow SFTMP CN2_AGRC SMTMP CN2_FRST CN2_RNGE SMFMX CNCOEF SMFMN SURLAG TIMP ESCO SOL_AWC SOL_Z SOL_K_AGRC SOL_K_FRST ALPHA_BF RCHRG_DP Lateral flow GW_DELAY Groundwater flow 7 Flow calibration 8 What is the difference? Parameter A B CN2_FRST 59 56 CN2_AGRC 76 63 SOL_AWC 0.13 0.106 SOL_K_AGRC 139 107 RCHRG_DP 0.4 0.52 9 Flow validation 10 What parameters were chosen for Nitrogen calibration? RCN.bsn (Concentration of nitrogen in rainfall) NPERCO.bsn (Nitrate percolation coefficient) Past Present CDN.bsn (Denitrification exponential rate coefficient) Sensitivity RCN 0.7 0.2 RSDCO.bsn (Residue decomposition coefficient) CDN 2.61 SDNCO.bsn (Denitrification threshold water content) analysis N_UPDIS.bsn (Uptake distribution parameter) SDNCO 0.995 CMN.bsn (Rate factor for humus mineralization of active NPERCO 0.3 organic nutrients) ANION_EXCL 0.144 BIOMIX.mgt (Biological mixing efficiency) CMN 0.1 ANION_EXCL.sol (Fraction of porosity from which anions are excluded) N_UPDIS 81 HLIFE_NGW.gw (Half-life of nitrogen in groundwater) HLIFE_NGW 1.5 11 Nitrogen calibration Calibration Validation 1985-1986 1987;1989 2007;2009 NS 0.97 0.69 0.71 RSR 0.15 0.56 0.54 PBIAS 10.2% -29.3% 10.4% 12 What parameters are important for Phosphorus calibration? PSP.bsn (P availability index) P_UPDIS.bsn (Uptake distribution parameter) PPERCO.bsn (P percolation coefficient) Sensitivity PHOSKD.bsn (P soil partitioning coefficient) analysis PHOSKD 128 SOL_SOLP_AGRC(1).chm (Initial soluble P ERORGP 4.24 concentration in first soil layer for SOL_SOLP_AGRC 8.5 crop lands) SOL_SOLP_FRST(1).chm (Initial soluble P SOL_SOLP_FRST 1.1 concentration in first soil layer for P_UPDIS 72 forest) ERORGP.hru (P enrichment ratio for loading with sediment) 13 Phosphorus calibration Calibration Validation 1985-1986 1987-1988 NS 0.73 0.6 RSR 0.52 0.63 PBIAS 21% 42.5% 14 Crop yield – Nitrate load relationship 15 Split of fertilizer application 16 Nitrates loads for various crops 17 Low mobility High mobility Max: high runoff Max: May & Jun P NO3 eco Fertilizer split Down to -60% $ Down to -30% 18 Thank you! This work has been supported by in consortium with Nitrate concentration in flow 1.4 1985 1.3mgN/L 1.2 1.0 200 0.8 kg/ha 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 20 Snowmelt period runoff (Snow+Rain)/ Snow cover Rain Runoff, m3 Runnoff 1985 134 8 15997 0.32 1986 41 20 14488 0.68 1987 162 8 11768 0.20 1988 71 45 17303 0.42 2007 35 32 3242 0.14 2009 38 34 1527 0.06 2010 150 12 2537 0.04 2012 85 7 2586 0.08 21 Flow evaluation 5 /s 4 3 3 2 1 0 Q_average, m Q_average, Precipitation, mm Precipitation, 2 2 Периоды весеннего половодья 2009-2013гг 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ? 150снег+14ос.=164мм 65снег+7ос.=72мм 85снег+8ос.=93мм 118снег+39ос.=157мм Сток = 277тис.м3 Сток = 70тис.м3 Сток = 264тис.м3 Сток = 360тис.м3 1мм→1,69тис. м3 1мм→0,97тис. м3 1мм→2,84тис. м3 1мм→2,29тис. м3 ? сток = 30тис. м3 1мм →1,39тис. м3 23.
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