RESULT UPDATE

AU SMALL FINANCE Commentary matters more than current numbers

India Equity Research| Banking and

Small variances aside, AU ’s (AU) March-end press EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS release had left little suspense regarding its Q4FY20 fundamentals. PAT Absolute Rating BUY increased by only 3.5% YoY—despite 27.4% AUM growth and ~30bps Rating Relative to Sector Outperformer QoQ improvement in NIM to 7.3%—as the RBI-stipulated 5% provisioning Risk Rating Relative to Sector Low on overdue assets as of end-March totaled INR1.38bn. Ironically enough, Sector Relative to Market Overweight but not surprisingly, this provisioning comes in a quarter where GNPA improved ~20bps to 1.7%. All ears, however, unsurprisingly remained focused on commentary. The bank clarified that the bulk of its clientele MARKET DATA (R: AUFI.BO, B: AUBANK IN) and service points were outside COVID-19 hotspots and indeed in lower- CMP : INR 517 population-density geographies. The commentary also provided glimpses Target Price : INR 750 into management’s thought process around the components of its 52-week range (INR) : 1,218 /444 product-market matrix (e.g. the relatively quicker bounce-back likely in Share in issue (mn) : 304.1 passenger traffic-driven customer subset of wheels and expected tepid M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 157/ 2,095 incremental growth in NBFC exposure). The bank also took the Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 533.4 opportunity to reiterate that its NBFC-heritage asset strengths will stand it in good stead. We are revising the 12-month target P/BVPS to 5x SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)

March-21E from 6.6x to build in a likely lower asset size and bumped-up Current Q3FY20 Q2FY20 credit costs, and the possibility of a value-enhancing but nevertheless Promoters * 31.0 31.0 32.1 cheaper dilution. Our confidence in a 5x target multiple in the current MF's, FI's & BK’s 15.4 15.1 15.8 environment stems from our ‘take no prisoners’ approach to earnings FII's 40.5 41.7 39.0 estimation (earnings cuts of 72% for FY21 and 51% for FY22) and our Others 13.1 12.2 13.2 fundamental faith in AU’s underwriting and collection franchise. We are * Promoters pledged shares : 7.0 (% of share in issue) revising down the TP to INR750 (INR1,150 earlier). Maintain ‘BUY’.

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) Earnings change mechanics more telling than its specifics Stock Nifty Our earnings changes are driven by: i) modulation in new disbursements and segment- EW BFSI specific loci of recovery (SBL-SME/real estate never; gold loans and housing the 1 month 4.3 5.7 10.4 earliest; and SBL MSME the most critical in terms of overall influence); ii) a prognosis of 3 months (50.7) (23.1) (35.0) asset quality and coverage with GNPA expected to peak by FY21; and iii) some belt- 12 months (19.8) (19.9) (33.0) tightening on operating costs.

Outlook and valuation: Asset franchise matters; maintain ‘BUY’ The AU Small Finance Bank story has been all about an asset franchise-driven ability to deliver tearaway asset growth with pristine asset quality outcomes, driving a sequence of BVPS-enhancing dilutions. The current enabling resolution of a maximum INR25bn worth of capital raise, perhaps raises the possibility of a dilution in somewhat suboptimal market conditions. We maintain ‘BUY/SO’ with a TP of INR750. Santanu Chakrabarti

Financials (INR mn) +91 22 4342 8680

Year to March Q4FY20 Q4FY19 YoY (%) Q3FY20 QoQ (%) FY20 FY21E FY22E [email protected]

Total income 7,381 5,174 42.6 6,681 10.5 26,150 25,463 29,821 Vinayak Agarwal Net profit 1,223 1,182 3.5 1,902 (35.7) 6,748 2,935 6,894 +91 22 6620 3020 [email protected] Diluted EPS (INR) 22.0 9.6 22.5

B/V (diluted) per share (INR) 141.1 148.6 168.1 Diluted P/E (x) 23.5 53.9 23.0 Price/ BV (x) 3.7 3.5 3.1 May 04, 2020 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Bloomberg EDEL , Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited

Banking and Financial Services

Table 1: Q4FY20 profit & loss statement (INR mn) Q4FY20 Q4FY19 YoY (%) Q3FY20 QoQ (%) Profit & Loss Statement Interest income 11,835 8,769 35.0 11,116 6.5 Interest expense 6,285 4,900 28.3 6,048 3.9 Net interest income (NII) 5,549 3,869 43.4 5,068 9.5 Other income 1,831 1,306 40.3 1,612 13.6 Total income 7,381 5,174 42.6 6,681 10.5 Employee expenses 2,045 1,596 28.1 1,871 9.3 Other operating expenses (incl. depreciation) 2,178 1,422 53.2 1,681 29.6 Total operating expenses 4,223 3,018 39.9 3,552 18.9 Pre-Provisioning operating profit (PPoP) 3,158 2,157 46.4 3,128 0.9 Provisions and write offs 1,506 392 283.8 401 275.4 Exceptional item - - - Profit before tax 1,652 1,764 (6.4) 2,727 (39.4) Tax expenses 429 582 (26.3) 825 (48.0) Tax rate 26 33 (21.3) 30 (14.2) Profit after tax 1,223 1,182 3.5 1,902 (35.7)

Table 2: Q4FY20 balance sheet (INR mn) Q4FY20 Q4FY19 YoY (%) Q3FY20 QoQ (%) Capital 3,041 2,924 4.0 3,037 0.1 Reserves & Surplus 40,206 26,526 51.6 38,760 3.7 Shareholders Funds 43,768 31,629 38.4 42,367 3.3 Borrowings 1,03,353 86,134 20.0 86,680 19.2 Deposits 2,61,639 1,94,224 34.7 2,38,650 9.6 Other Liabilities & Provisions 12,670 14,241 (11.0) 16,243 (22.0) Total Sources Of Funds 4,21,431 3,26,228 29.2 3,83,940 9.8

Fixed Assets 4,480 4,470 0.2 4,490 (0.2) Investments 1,06,682 71,617 49.0 85,880 24.2 Cash & Bank 33,697 17,402 93.6 21,290 58.3 Other Assets (Incl Deferred tax Assets) 6,648 4,552 46.0 6,560 1.3 Loans Outstanding 2,69,924 2,28,187 18.3 2,65,720 1.6 Total Utilisation Of Funds 4,21,431 3,26,228 29.2 3,83,940 9.8 Source: Company, Edelweiss research

2 Edelweiss Securities Limited AU Small Finance Bank

Table 3: Key ratios (INR mn) Q4FY20 Q4FY19 YoY (%) Q3FY20 QoQ (%) Loan AUM 3,08,930 2,42,450 27.4 2,98,660 3.4 -Vehicle Finance 1,29,850 1,02,240 27.0 1,24,110 4.6 -MSME 1,12,870 78,650 43.5 1,04,730 7.8 -Other retail 16,200 7,240 123.8 14,170 14.3 -Wholesale 49,760 51,070 (2.6) 49,900 (0.3) Off-book as a % of loan AUM 11.6 5.3 625 bps 10.1 149 bps Loan disbursements 50,000 50,300 (0.6) 48,810 2.4 Yields on interest-earning assets (%) 15.8 15.5 29 bps 15.7 16 bps Cost of borrowings(%) 7.3 7.6 -32 bps 7.6 -36 bps NIM on Gross AUM(%) 7.3 6.7 58 bps 7.0 28 bps Total deposits 2,62,795 1,94,288 35.3 2,38,792 10.1 -CASA deposits 37,870 35,900 5.5 37,430 1.2 -CASA Ratio (%) 15.9 21.0 -515 bps 17.0 -111 bps Gross NPA - on gross loans (%) 1.7 2.0 -36 bps 1.9 -20 bps Net NPA - on gross loans (%) 0.8 1.3 -48 bps 1.0 -20 bps Provision coverage ratio (%) 53 37 1517 bps 47 573 bps Cost to Income (%) 57.2 58.3 -110 bps 53.2 405 bps RoA (%) - annualised 1.2 1.6 -35 bps 2.1 -84 bps RoE (%) - annualised 11.4 15.3 -390 bps 19.6 -827 bps CRAR (%) 22.0 19.3 270 bps 19.3 270 bps -Tier 1 (%) 18.4 16.0 240 bps 16.5 190 bps -Tier 2 (%) 3.6 3.3 30 bps 2.8 80 bps Branches (including asset centres) 559 491 13.8 527 6.1 Employees 17,112 12,623 35.6 15,308 11.8 Spread 8.5 7.9 61 bps 8.0 52 bps Source: Company, Edelweiss research

Chart 1: AUM growth tapered due to slower growth in all segments of retail assets 3,50,000 25.0

2,80,000 20.0

2,10,000 15.0 (%)

(iNR mn) (iNR 1,40,000 10.0

70,000 5.0

0 0.0 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Total Gross AUM QoQ Growth rate (RHS)

Source: Company, Edelweiss research

3 Edelweiss Securities Limited Banking and Financial Services

Chart 2: Disbursements continue to stay stable, led by wholesale segment (68% QoQ) 60,000

50,000

40,000

(INR mn) (INR 30,000

20,000

10,000 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Total Disbursements

Chart 3: Business continues to be dominated by Vehicle Finance and MSME Agri SME Business 3.9% Real Estate Banking Group 3.5% 2.7% NBFC 6.0% Home Loan 1.8% OD against FD Vehicle Finance 2.6% 42.1% Gold Loan + CD + PL 0.8%

SBL - MSME 36.6%

Chart 4: While yields were stable, cost of funds came off 12bps in the current quarter; NIM improved sequentially 20.0 10.0

16.0 9.0

12.0

8.0 (%) 8.0 (%) 7.0 4.0 6.0 0.0

5.0

Q4'19 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20

Q2'19 Q1'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Yields on loan (calculated) Q4'18 NIM (calculated) Average Cost of Funds (calculated) Source: Company, Edelweiss research

4 Edelweiss Securities Limited AU Small Finance Bank

Chart 5: Incremental loan yields continue to stay above yield on existing book 16.0

14.8

13.6 (%) 12.4

11.2

10.0 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Overall yield Incremental yield

Chart 6: Operating leverage benefit playing out; However C/I ratio at 57% in CQ 65.0

60.0

55.0 (%) 50.0

45.0

40.0

Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q3'19 Cost to income (%)

Chart 7: Asset quality continues to improve despite a slowdown in broader economy 4.0 60.0

3.2 52.0

2.4 44.0

(%) (%) 1.6 36.0

0.8 28.0

0.0 20.0

Q1'19 Q2'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q4'18 Q3'19 GNPA - on book NNPA - on book Provision coverage ratio (RHS)

Source: Company, Edelweiss research

5 Edelweiss Securities Limited Banking and Financial Services

Chart 8: Growth in vehicle finance due to stronger traction in used vehicles and cash on wheels sub-segment 1,48,000 25,000

1,30,000 20,000 1,12,000 15,000 94,000

(INR mn) (INR 10,000 76,000 mn) (INR

58,000 5,000

40,000 0

Q3'20 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q4'20

Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Vehicle Finance AUM Vehicle Finance disbursements

Chart 9: MSME segment continues to grow, albeit at a slower rate; Management intends to scale this segment further 1,20,000 15,000

96,000 12,000

72,000 9,000 (INR mn) (INR 48,000 mn) (INR 6,000

24,000 3,000

0 0

Q3'19 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20

Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 SBL - MSME AUM SBL - MSME disbursements

Chart 10: Current account deposit up 20% QoQ Chart 11: Savings deposit witnessed pressure in Q4FY20 12,000 30,000

9,600 24,000

7,200 18,000 (INR mn) (INR 4,800 mn) (INR 12,000

2,400 6,000

0 0

Q1'19 Q2'19 Q4'18 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20

Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Current Account Savings Account

Source: Company, Edelweiss research

6 Edelweiss Securities Limited AU Small Finance Bank

Chart 12: CASA as a % of NDTL has been declining Chart 13: Term deposits picked up with higher share of retail 17.0 2,50,000

14.4 2,00,000

11.8 1,50,000 (%) 9.2 mn) (INR 1,00,000

6.6 50,000

4.0 0

Q1'19 Q2'19 Q4'18 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20

Q2'19 Q4'20 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Term deposit

Chart 14: Drop in RoA and RoE predominantly due to increase in provision expense (by INR1.1bn) in Q4 3.0 25.0

2.4 20.0

1.8 15.0

(%) (%) 1.2 10.0

0.6 5.0

0.0 0.0

Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20

Q3'19 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 RoA (%) RoE (%)

Source: Company, Edelweiss research

7 Edelweiss Securities Limited Banking and Financial Services

Earning change mechanics more telling than specifics

Table 4: Disbursement and loan growth assumption for all sub-segments Disbursement growth YoY (%) Loan/ AUM growth YoY (%) FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E Rationale Total -33.7 84.7 36.8 3.3 30.3 32.7 Retail Assets -24.0 77.7 29.5 8.6 32.1 31.4 Growth drop off to be sharp in H1FY21, but recovery faster than general auto segment due to increased refinance of old vehicle capabilities and market share Vehicle Finance -39.8 81.6 27.2 -1.7 24.4 25.5 realities in core geographies Perhaps the key driver of the rcovery in FY22, low competition segment with high SBL-MSME -8.8 91.2 37.1 8.2 34.8 35.9 entry barriers Gold loans are one of the safest asset classes around, but it will have branch Gold Loan + AGRI SME + HL + CD 43.4 82.6 21.6 31.2 43.1 22.9 operational economics implicationms for AU beyond a certain scale OD against FD -6.4 22.8 8.2 103.1 40.7 20.3 Home Loan 48.6 50.1 39.6 106.5 73.2 56.0 Still miniscule

Wholesale Assets -81.0 221.4 115.1 -24.1 16.9 43.0 NBFC -89.1 16.2 120.6 -43.4 -38.6 -14.0 Unlikely to pick up in next 18 months due to risk aversion Real Estate Group -94.3 4.0 4.0 -32.0 -30.7 -28.9 Re-entry unlikely Perhaps the biggest COVID-19 delta segment, a usual safe haven that could come Business Banking -73.1 280.3 116.3 -28.4 123.2 100.6 under some pressure. Unlikely that enthusiasm will return before FY22 Agri SME -35.8 21.6 21.6 14.7 18.8 22.0

Table 5: Summary of revised earnings estimates New estimates Old estimates Change INR mn FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E Net interest income (NII) 18,919 22,288 31,210 25,827 33,745 44,218 -26.7 -34.0 -29.4 Pre-provisoning profit (PPOP) 9,318 10,446 17,268 16,197 21,861 29,467 -42.5 -52.2 -41.4 Profit after tax (PAT) 2,935 6,894 10,340 10,468 14,149 19,313 -72.0 -51.3 -46.5

Chart 15: GNPA to rise and peak in FY21E as stress in economy becomes more evident 20,000 7.0 6.0 16,000 5.0

12,000 4.0 (%) 8,000 3.0

(iNR mn) (iNR 2.0 4,000 1.0

0 0.0

Q4'20

Q1'21E Q2'21E Q3'21E Q4'21E Q1'22E Q2'22E Q3'22E Q4'22E Q1'23E Q2'23E Q3'23E Q4'23E

Gross NPA Gross NPA (%) Source: Company, Edelweiss research

8 Edelweiss Securities Limited AU Small Finance Bank

Chart 16: NIMs are lower than spreads due to interest reversals on NPAs 9.0

8.2

7.4

(i%) 6.6

5.8

5.0

Q4'20

Q1'21E Q2'21E Q3'21E Q4'21E Q1'22E Q3'22E Q4'22E Q1'23E Q2'23E Q4'23E Q2'22E Q3'23E

NIM (%) Spread (%) Source: Company, Edelweiss research

9 Edelweiss Securities Limited Banking and Financial Services

Q4FY20 conference call highlights Current environment and asset quality

 Contributed INR70mn to various funds for COVID-19-related relief work as part of CSR. Furthermore, MD & CEO has donated 2.5mn shares of AU as personal donation and will not take any remuneration for FY21.

 58% of the bank’s touchpoints are in green/orange zones; in terms of area, 71% fall in the green and orange categories.

 63% of overall business comes from rural and semi-urban areas while 26% comes from urban and residual 11% from metros.

 75% of total EMIs due in April has been paid, consisting of both full and partial EMI repayments; usually this numbers is in early 90s (Feb-20 and Mar-20)

 56% customers paid EMIs in full while 23% paid partial EMIs in the MSME segment.

 NPLs to be in check in the long term due to direct sourcing of customers, strong reference checks, presence of guarantors, moderate LTV ratios and funding to essential business. Strong in-house collection is a hallmark.

 March usually accounts for 10–15% of overall business; the last 7–8 days were affected due to the lockdown; collection of INR0.7–0.8bn was affected due to this in March.

 Opting for moratorium is not a sign of bad lending. Comfort of customer is important in the current environment – customers will also be eager to pay back as moratorium comes with a cost

 25% of customers in value terms have opted for moratorium in April.

 Created a COVID-19-related reserve of INR1.38bn; This is 5% of INR2.7bn (as on 31 March, outstanding book in the 0-30 category). This was around INR36bn on 1 March, INR23bn in the end of April. This can see further reduction by June as the economy opens up.

 In the worst-to-worst scenario, like the oil crisis, the bank’s NPL was 4%.

 Total provision on balance sheet is INR5bn, consisting of a standard provision of INR1.2bn, COVID-19 related provision of INR1.4bn and NPA provisioning of INR2.4bn on an overall book of INR270bn. This amounts to 1.8% provision on total book.

 Not worried about any specific customer segment from an asset quality perspective.

 Wheels book

o 40% of wheels portfolio is around personal cars.

o This book is largely in semi-urban and rural areas catering to point-to-point travel.

o Cash on wheels is simply refinancing – 60% of this portfolio consists of existing customers. It is among the oldest businesses for AU.

o The underwriting process is similar for both new vehicles and used.

o Ola/ Uber borrowers should also start paying once business for them starts again.

 NBFC book

o 130–140 customers in this segment with predominantly term loan facility.

o 94% of NBFC customers have paid EMIs in April.

10 Edelweiss Securities Limited AU Small Finance Bank

o Challenge for NBFC is on growth and not solvency. Hence, we do not see this as a big risk to asset quality.

 Guarantor is usually in the same field of activity as the borrower with an internal credit rating a notch higher.

 The bank has a customer base of 2mn – demand is not a challenge/concern. Selection of risk is the key within this.

 Collection efficiency will go back to normal with time.

 Expect RoA to remain in the range of 1.6–1.7% as of now.

Deposits

 Deposits grew 10% over December 2019.

 Reduction in savings deposit balance is more due to the external environment and concerns pertaining to private after the episode.

 The bank is more focused on retail deposits and wholesale.

 Loyalty should increase due to COVID-19 as the bank has been proactively reaching out to customers to lend support and help cope with current challenges; Also helping senior citizens procure essential goods.

 Deposits were stable in April.

o Branch banking (retail) grew by INR0.8bn (CASA + Term).

o Overall, incremental term deposits were up by INR5.4bn.

o Furthermore, 13,000 new accounts were acquired with an activation value of INR400mn.

 Cost of deposits reducing for incremental deposits.

 Strong traction seen in AU Royale, which was launched earlier in the year.

o AU Royale has 11K customers and has witnessed 25% growth in transacting customers.

 Video KYC to start this week for opening deposit accounts.

Operating metrics

 Capital raise - Intention of enabling resolution to raise capital is in line with the strategy of gradually reducing leverage.

o This is not an immediate need as management is not very sure of asset growth as of now.

o Currently, capital ratios are strong with an adequate liquidity buffer.

o Also have a 6% stake in Aavas.

o Significant headroom to raise Tier 2 capital.

o Have not decided the order of funds—whether to liquidate a stake in Aavas prior to capital raise or vice versa.

 Liquidity improved further to INR50bn in April. This is invested in high-quality assets such as government bonds or kept with the RBI – Has a cost of 1–2bps on NIM

11 Edelweiss Securities Limited Banking and Financial Services

 Margins

o Pricing power will remain high as NBFCs are not lending due to challenges of their own.

o Cost of funds to trend down – Securitisation and refinance help to achieve this.

o Further expense rationalization as that is a controllable variable.

 Expense in Q4 was higher due to incremental hiring in the December quarter in anticipation of a good year (FY20/21). This also includes a one-time litigation expense of INR150mn around GST, INR150mn to auditor on advice for depreciation policy, CSR expense of INR70mn, and higher marketing expenses.

 65% of costs are fixed in nature and 35% variable.

 Launched a new product called Covid Shield to help customers tide over this difficult period.

12 Edelweiss Securities Limited AU Small Finance Bank

Company Description AU Small Finance Bank (SFB) is a small finance bank that has recently transitioned from a prominent, retail-focused NBFC, which primarily served low- and middle-income individuals and businesses that have limited or no access to formal banking and finance channels. AU received a license from the RBI to set up a small finance bank (SFB) on December 20, 2016. AU commenced SFB operations with effect from April 19, 2017.

In its former days, AU operated mainly in three business lines: vehicle finance; MSME loans; and SME loans. However, after getting a SFB license, AU has expanded its product portfolio and now offers a diverse suite of banking products and services. This includes gold loans, agri. related loans, consumer durable loans and home loans in the retail category and business banking under wholesale category primarily to meet working capital requirements of small and medium enterprises. Geographically, AU has spread its wings across It has 418 branches across 11 states with a strong presence in the states of (~53%), Madhya Pradesh (13%), (~10%) and (~10%) which together account for ~82% of the gross AUM. More than 60% of these branches are in non-metropolitan, non-urban areas. It also has 56 BCs, 81 asset centers and 554 ATMs to complement business operations.

Investment Theme AU’s asset-side legacy strengths are based on demonstrated deep domain knowledge in the MSME and auto segments and pricing headroom and risk selection benefits of being centered on a ‘Goldilocks’ geography such as Rajasthan. While GNPA of 2% provides comfort on current asset pool performance, it is the sustainability of its asset strengths that underpins the perception of low execution risk to continued credit expansion.

AU’s central geography Rajasthan (42% of AUM) seems to offer a confluence of trinity offortuitous circumstances: low credit penetration and competition (especially in non-prime segments, medium per capita income and a good credit culture and stable law and order.

CASA is, therefore, the icing on the investment thesis cake for AU, not the cake itself—at least not for the next five–ten years. Given our status quo expectation on retail liabilities, incremental borrowing cost economies are negligible. Instead stability of profitability is asset-pricing driven.

Key Risks The real-estate-cycle-sensitive subsets of the retail SME segment and construction finance (7% of AUM combined) remain the most likely culprits of an otherwise unlikely asset quality upset—key risk to the virtuous cycle of capital-raising at a premium and efficient deployment.

Investment thesis not high on margin of safety as the stock at current levels is clearly not a value investor’s cup of tea. Truth be told though—even the growth investor would likely keep a wary eye on the multiple (4.7x FY20E BVPS). In other words, AU is priced for some business success (let’s say incident-free 30% asset CAGR over the next three years and some benefit of operating leverage).

13 Edelweiss Securities Limited Banking and Financial Services

Financial Statements

Key assumptions Income statement (INR mn) Year to March FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E Year to March FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E Macro Interest income 42,859 44,109 52,086 69,136 GDP(Y-o-Y %) 4.8 3.0 6.0 6.0 Interest expended 23,769 25,190 29,798 37,926 Inflation (Avg) 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 Net interest income 19,089 18,919 22,288 31,210 Repo rate (exit rate) 4.4 3.0 4.0 4.0 Non interest income 7,061 6,544 7,534 9,976 USD/INR (Avg) 70.7 75.0 73.0 73.0 Net revenues 26,150 25,463 29,821 41,186 Company Operating expense 14,179 16,146 19,375 23,918 Asset branches (nos.) 31 51 71 91 - Employee exp 7,596 8,356 10,027 12,233 Liability branches (nos.) 528 568 608 648 - Depn /amortisation 741 889 1,067 1,281 CASA/branch (INR mn) 71.7 75.1 79.4 83.3 - Other opex 5,841 6,901 8,281 10,404 Retail TD/branch (INR mn) 148.3 184.6 0.0 0.0 Preprovision profit 11,972 9,318 10,446 17,268 Employee/branch (x) 32.4 30.8 29.5 28.3 Provisions 2,832 5,395 1,234 3,450 Interest rate Savings 0.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 Profit before tax 9,140 3,922 9,212 13,818 Interest rate Term deposits 0.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Less: Provision for tax 2,392 987 2,319 3,478 Yield on advances (%) 15.6 14.1 14.2 14.3 Profit After Tax 6,748 2,935 6,894 10,340 Cost of funds (%) 7.4 6.6 6.6 6.6 Reported Profit 6,748 2,935 6,894 10,340 Spread (%) 8.3 7.5 7.6 7.7 Shares o/s (mn) 306 306 306 306 GNPLs (%) 1.7 5.5 4.0 3.5 Basic EPS (INR) 22.1 9.6 22.5 33.7 Prov. Coverage (%) 52.5 50.0 50.0 50.0 Diluted shares o/s (mn) 306 306 306 306 Adj. Diluted EPS (INR) 22.0 9.6 22.5 33.7

Growth ratios (%) Year to March FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E Revenues 44.9 (2.6) 17.1 38.1 NII growth 42.2 (0.9) 17.8 40.0 Opex growth 31.0 13.9 20.0 23.4 PPP growth 65.8 (22.2) 12.1 65.3 Provisions growth 99.7 90.5 (77.1) 179.6 Adjusted Profit 76.7 (56.5) 134.9 50.0

Operating ratios (%) Year to March FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E Yield on advances 15.6 14.1 14.2 14.3 Cost of funds 7.4 6.6 6.6 6.6 Net interest margins 7.0 6.0 6.1 6.5 Spread 8.3 7.5 7.6 7.7 Cost-income 54.2 63.4 65.0 58.1 Tax rate 26.2 25.2 25.2 25.2

14 Edelweiss Securities Limited AU Small Finance Bank

Balance sheet (INR mn) RoE decomposition (%) As on 31st March FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E Year to March FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E Share capital 3,041 3,049 3,049 3,049 Net int. income/Average AuM 7.0 6.0 6.1 6.5 Reserves & Surplus 40,206 42,482 48,461 57,704 Other Income/Average AuM 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.1 Net worth 43,247 45,531 51,510 60,753 Net revenues/Average AuM 9.5 8.1 8.1 8.5 Deposits 262,795 357,703 468,191 586,092 Operating exp./Average AuM 5.2 5.1 5.3 4.9 Total borrowings 102,198 39,991 38,460 58,233 Provisions/Average AuM 1.0 1.7 0.3 0.7 Total equity & liabilities 408,239 443,225 558,161 705,077 Taxes/Average AuM 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.7 Deferred tax asset 131 158 189 227 Total costs/Average AuM 7.1 7.2 6.2 6.4 Loans 269,924 286,963 382,287 507,130 ROAAUM 2.5 0.9 1.9 2.1 Investments 106,682 120,072 135,142 152,103 Equity/Average AuM 7.3 7.1 7.6 8.6 Current assets 40,213 45,250 50,918 57,295 ROAE 18.0 6.6 14.2 18.4 Current liabilities 12,670 14,260 16,050 18,065 Net current assets 27,543 30,990 34,868 39,230 Valuation metrics Fixed assets (net block) 4,480 5,042 5,675 6,387 Year to March FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E Total assets 408,761 443,225 558,161 705,077 Adj. Diluted EPS (INR) 22.0 9.6 22.5 33.7 Credit growth 18.3 6.3 33.2 32.7 Y-o-Y growth (%) 70.7 -56.5 134.9 50.0 Gross NPA ratio 1.7 5.5 4.0 3.5 BV per share (INR) (Diluted) 141.1 148.6 168.1 198.2 Net NPA ratio 0.8 2.8 2.0 1.8 Adj. diluted BV per share (INR) 134.0 122.8 143.1 169.3 Provision coverage 52.5 50.0 50.0 50.0 Diluted P/E (x) 23.5 53.9 23.0 15.3 Price/ BV (x) 3.7 3.5 3.1 2.6 Price/ ABV (x) 3.9 4.2 3.6 3.1

15 Edelweiss Securities Limited Banking and Financial Services

Additional Data

Directors Data Name of the director Designation Name of the director Designation Raj Vikash Verma Part time Chairman - Independent Sanjay Agarwal Executive Director - MD & CEO Uttam Tibrewal Executive Director Krishan Kant Rathi Independent Director Jyoti Ishwar Chandra Narang Independent Director Mankal Shankar Sriram Independent Director Narendra Ostawal Non-Independent Director V.G. Kannan Independent Director Pushpinder Singh Independent Director

Auditors - S.R. Batliboi & Associates LLP

*As per company information

Holding - Top 10 % Holding % Holding Redwood Investments 6.91 Kotak Mahindra Asset Management 5.42 Temasek (through Camas Investments) 4.76 Motilal Oswal Asset Management 2.38 Amansa Holdings 2.17 SBI Asset Management 1.82 Labh Investment 1.68 Steadview Capital 1.65 Ourea Holdings 1.56 International Finance Corporation 1.53 *as per latest available data

Bulk Deals Date Acquired/Seller B/S Qty traded Price 13-Jul-18 Kotak Mutual Fund - Standard Multicap Fund BUY 36,50,824 630 13-Jul-18 International Finance Corporation SELL 88,37,381 630 13-Jul-18 International Finance Corporation SELL 32,00,000 630 10-Aug-18 Nomura India Investment Fund Mother Fund BUY 1,14,81,275 638 10-Aug-18 Kotak Mutual Fund BUY 23,50,006 638 10-Aug-18 Ourea Holdings Limited SELL 28,79,269 638 10-Aug-18 Redwood Investment Ltd SELL 2,40,00,000 638 21-Dec-18 The Vanguard Group Buy 15,69,292 637 24-Oct-19 Ourea Holdings Limited SELL 31,65,364 675 *in last one year

Insider Trades Date Acquired/Seller B/S Qty traded 6-Sep-18 Chanda Devi Kedia Sell 5,460 6-Sep-18 Chanda Devi Kedia Sell 3,000 6-Sep-18 Srikant Kedia Sell 3,000 6-Sep-18 Chanda Devi Kedia Sell 2,000 6-Sep-18 Suresh Chand Kedia Sell 1,000 6-Sep-18 Suresh Chand Kedia Sell 600 6-Sep-18 Chanda Devi Kedia Sell 500 6-Sep-18 Suresh Chand Kedia Sell 1,000 6-Sep-18 Chanda Devi Kedia Sell 500 6-Sep-18 Chanda Devi Kedia Sell 4,043 * These are the last ten trades

16 Edelweiss Securities Limited RATING & INTERPRETATION

Company Absolute Relative Relative Company Absolute Relative Relative reco reco risk reco reco Risk HOLD SP M Aditya Birla Capital BUY SO H BUY SO M REDUCE SU L REDUCE SU M DCB Bank HOLD SP M HDFC BUY SO L BUY SO L ICICI Bank BUY SO L HDFC Bank BUY SO L Housing Finance HOLD SU M IDFC FIRST BANK BUY SP L BUY SP M IndusInd Bank BUY SO L LIC Housing Finance BUY SO M L&T Finance Holdings HOLD SP M Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services BUY SP M Magma Fincorp BUY SP M Max Financial Services BUY SO L Manappuram Finance HOLD SU H BUY SO M of India HOLD SP M REDUCE SU M REC HOLD SP M Repco Home Finance BUY SP M Shriram City Union Finance BUY SP M Shriram Transport Finance BUY SO M South BUY SP M State BUY SO L HOLD SU M Yes Bank BUY SP M

ABSOLUTE RATING

Ratings Expected absolute returns over 12 months

Buy More than 15%

Hold Between 15% and - 5%

Reduce Less than -5%

RELATIVE RETURNS RATING

Ratings Criteria Sector Outperformer (SO) Stock return > 1.25 x Sector return

Sector Performer (SP) Stock return > 0.75 x Sector return

Stock return < 1.25 x Sector return

Sector Underperformer (SU) Stock return < 0.75 x Sector return

Sector return is market cap weighted average return for the coverage universe within the sector RELATIVE RISK RATING

Ratings Criteria

Low (L) Bottom 1/3rd percentile in the sector

Medium (M) Middle 1/3rd percentile in the sector

High (H) Top 1/3rd percentile in the sector

Risk ratings are based on Edelweiss risk model SECTOR RATING

Ratings Criteria Overweight (OW) Sector return > 1.25 x Nifty return

Equalweight (EW) Sector return > 0.75 x Nifty return

Sector return < 1.25 x Nifty return

Underweight (UW) Sector return < 0.75 x Nifty return

17 Edelweiss Securities Limited Banking and Financial Services

Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai – 400 098. Board: (91-22) 4009 4400, Email: [email protected]

Aditya Narain

Head of Research [email protected]

Coverage group(s) of stocks by primary analyst(s):Banking and Financial Services , AU Small Finance Bank, Axis Bank, Bharat Financial Inclusion, Bajaj Finserv, Bank of Baroda, Capital First, DCB Bank, Dewan Housing Finance, Equitas Holdings Ltd., Federal Bank, HDFC, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, ICIC Lombard General Insurance, IDFC Bank, Indiabulls Housing Finance, IndusInd Bank, , Kotak Mahindra Bank, LIC Housing Finance, L&T FINANCE HOLDINGS LTD, Max Financial Services, Multi Commodity Exchange of India, Manappuram General Finance, Magma Fincorp, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services, Muthoot Finance, Oriental Bank Of Commerce, Punjab National Bank, Power Finance Corp, Reliance Capital, Rural Electrification Corporation, Repco Home Finance, , Shriram City Union Finance, Shriram Transport Finance, , Union Bank Of India, Yes Bank

Recent Research

Date Company Title Price (INR) Recos

04-May-20 ICICI The proof of the 1,288 Buy Lombard pudding...; Company Update

29-Apr-20 Max At long last, the inevitable… 476 Buy Financial almost!; Company Update

28-Apr-20 Axis Candid commentary, 427 Buy Bank abundant caution; Result Update

Distribution of Ratings / Market Cap Edelweiss Research Coverage Universe Rating Interpretation

Buy Hold Reduce Total Rating Expected to

Rating Distribution* 161 67 11 240 Buy appreciate more than 15% over a 12-month period * 1stocks under review Hold appreciate up to 15% over a 12-month period > 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn 743 Reduce depreciate more than 5% over a 12-month period Market Cap (INR) 156 62 11 594

One year price chart 446 1,450

(INR) 297 1,200 149 950

(INR)

- 700

14

14 14

14 14

14

14

14

14

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14

-

- -

-

-

-

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- -

- -

- 450

Jul

Jan

Jun

Oct

Apr

Sep Feb

Dec

Aug Nov

Mar May

200

19

19

19

20

19

19 20

19 20 20

19 20

19

-

- -

-

-

- -

- - -

- -

-

Jul

Jan

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Apr

Sep Feb

Dec

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Mar May May AU Bank Small Finance Bank

Edelweiss Securities Limited 18

AU Small Finance Bank

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Banking and Financial Services

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