Technology Assessment Getting to the core of the bio-economy: A perspective on the sustainable promise of biomass Lotte Asveld, Rinie van Est & Dirk Stemerding (Eds) The Rathenau Instituut focuses on the infl uence of science and technology on our daily lives and maps its dynamics; through independent research and debate. Getting to the core of the bio-economy: A perspective on the sustainable promise of biomass © Rathenau Instituut, The Hague, 2011 Rathenau Instituut Anna van Saksenlaan 51 Correspondence: PO Box 95366 NL-2509 CJ Den Haag Telephone: +31 (0)70-342 15 42 Fax: +31 (0)70-363 34 88 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.rathenau.nl Published by: Rathenau Instituut Editor: Gaston Dorren Translation: Balance, Amsterdam/Maastricht Design and lay-out: Mary Ann Smit, Amsterdam Cover design and illustrations: Moker, Amsterdam Printing: Drukkerij Groen, Hoofddorp This book is printed on FSC-certified paper. First printing: September 2011 ISBN/EAN: 978-90-77364-39-0 Preferred citation: Asveld L., R. van Est & D. Stemerding (Eds), Getting to the core of the bio-economy: A perspective on the sustainable promise of biomass. The Hague: Rathenau Instituut, 2011 This work or parts of it may be reproduced and/or published for creative, personal or educational purposes, provided that no copies are made or used for commercial objectives, and subject to the condition that copies always give the full attribution above. In all other cases, no part of this publication may be reproduced and/or published by means of print, photocopy, or any other medium without the prior written permission of the Rathenau Instituut. Getting to the core of the bio-economy: A perspective on the sustainable promise of biomass Editors: Lotte Asveld Rinie van Est Dirk Stemerding Board of the Rathenau Instituut Drs. S. Dekker (chairman) Prof. dr. C.D. Dijkstra Dr. A. Esmeijer Prof. dr. H.W. Lintsen Prof. dr. H. Maassen van den Brink Prof. mr. J.E.J. Prins Prof. dr. A. Zuurmond Prof. dr. ir. W.E. Bijker Prof. dr. E.H.L. Aarts Mr. drs. J. Staman (secretary) Rathenau Instituut 7 Foreword Plant-based material is increasingly replacing fossil-based raw material such as petroleum, not only for energy purposes, but also as an ingredient in materials and medicines. This trend may mark the start of a major shift: the transition to a bio-based economy or bio-economy. Hopes are high for the bio-economy. Like the Dutch government, the US, Chinese and Brazilian governments, the OECD, and the European Commission all expect great things from a bio-economy. The use of biomass may finally bring the long battle between economic interests and sustainability to an end. Such use may make it possible to reduce total CO2 emissions. The transition to a bio-economy will be far-reaching. It will involve much more than replacing fossil-based raw materials and introducing new technologies; society will need to change in a way that clashes with the status quo in some cases. The global economic system will change. New dependencies may arise. Countries with an abundance of farmland may gain a firmer power base compa- red with oil-producing nations. Because the transition to a sustainable bio-economy is an international affair, we aim to use this study to engage in dialogue with others around the world. That is why we have had the report translated. Whether we are referring to policy, technology, or the social dimension, this analysis of the development of the bio-economy in the Netherlands can contribute to political and public debate about the bio-economy in other countries. This study looks at how government can effectively guide the transition to the bio-economy. That transition involves a number of urgent social issues that require close attention, for example the use of genetically modified organisms, the rise of new global and national economic systems, and the potential negative effects of the bio-economy such as deforestation. Our advice is the following: do not try to plan out the bio-economy on the drawing board and do not assume that the problems associated with existing technologies will be solved merely by introducing new technologies. Remember that the problems caused by the first generation of biofuels only became clear after we began using them. Learn by doing which applications are sustainable, feasible and desirable – and which are not. Do not ignore unsuccessful technolo- gies, but instead try to learn from their failure. In all cases, apply a transparent set of sustainability criteria that has broad international support. Such criteria are vital to gaining the trust of producers, consumers, and governments in a sustainable bio-economy. Help those who develop promising technologies gain access to the market, which is sometimes dominated by conservative forces. The bio-economy has already demonstrated its Utopian appeal, but it is only in everyday practice that it can realise its true potential. We provide our recommendations in detail in the concluding chapter of this report. We hope that they offer the EU guidance as it develops its own bio- economy strategy. The EU is expected to announce its new strategy in late 2011, with discussion in the Council of Ministers following in early 2012. We hope that the Council agrees with our proposal to ‘learn by doing’ within a transparent framework of sustainability criteria. But our world is much bigger than Europe alone. By examining the situation in the Netherlands, this report will also give stakeholders on other continents some notion of European political attitudes towards the bio-economy, and, in doing so, shed light on the differing strategies and opinions of the actors on the world stage. Whereas one stakeholder sees sustainability criteria mainly as a barrier to economic development, the other considers them a necessary condition. And whereas one regards the first generation of biofuels largely as a problem, the other sees them mainly as an opportunity. We hope that this report will contribute to the much-needed global debate on the sustainable bio-economy. Mr. drs. Jan Staman director Rathenau Instituut Rathenau Instituut 9 Index Foreword 7 Executive Summary 11 1 The bio-economy: fertile soil for policy targets 17 Lotte Asveld, Rinie van Est and Dirk Stemerding 1.1 Views on the bio-economy 18 1.1.1 Arguments in favour of the bio-economy 18 1.1.2 Instruments 21 1.1.3 Managing the negative effects 26 1.2 Guide to this publication 30 Bibliography 31 2 Bio-economy policy: inspiring but not leading 35 Doenja Koppejan and Rinie van Est 2.1 Introduction 35 2.2 Policy on using biomass for electricity and heat 35 2.3 Biofuels policy 39 2.4 Bio-economy: an integrative policy concept 43 2.5 Bio-economy policy not leading 46 2.6 Conclusion 49 Bibliography 49 3 The public debate: an accumulation of controversies 55 Doenja Koppejan en Lotte Asveld 3.1 Biomass (biomass production) 55 3.1.1 Supply of sustainable biomass available 56 3.1.2 Guaranteeing sustainability 60 3.1.3 The role of GMOs 66 3.2 Biorefinery 67 3.2.1 ‘Techno-trust’: confidence in the latest generations of technology 68 3.2.2 Biorefinery: where? 70 3.3 Application 71 3.4 New residual waste: efficient chain management 73 3.5 Innovation strategy 76 3.6 Naturalness 77 3.7 Conclusion 80 Bibliography 82 4 Innovation: en route to a bio-economy? 89 Huib de Vriend and Dirk Stemerding 4.1 Biorefinery 90 4.1.1 Mechanical separation and thermochemical conversion techniques 90 4.1.2 Biochemical conversion 92 4.1.3. Biotechnology as a new key technology 94 4.2 The use of biomass in the value pyramid 97 4.2.1 Pharmaceuticals and fine chemicals 97 4.2.2 Biochemicals and biomaterials 99 4.2.3. Energy 103 4.3 Coproduction and sustainability as significant challenges 109 4.3.1. Coproduction: integration into existing chains and development of new chains 109 4.3.2. Strategic choices and dilemmas 111 4.3.3 Sustainability criteria and genetic modification 111 4.4 Conclusion 113 Bibliography 114 5 From arcadia to utopia? 129 Frank Veraart, with Giel van Hooff, Fred Lambert, Harry Lintsen and Hans Schippers 5.1 Introduction 129 5.2 Arcadia? The Netherlands until 1850 130 5.3 Transition to an industrial society 135 5.4 The fossil economy 142 5.5 Industrial agriculture 149 5.6 The controversy of industrialisation 152 5.7 Conclusion: from myth to challenge 158 Bibliography 163 6 A bio-economy with a future: lessons learned 171 Lotte Asveld, Rinie van Est and Dirk Stemerding 6.1 A more influential role for bio-economy policy 172 6.1.1 Shift the focus to optimising biomass valorisation 172 6.1.2 Optimal valorisation requires policy coordination 173 6.2 Working towards a sustainable bio-economy 173 6.2.1 Sustainability requires more than new technologies alone 174 6.2.2. Learning to operationalize sustainability 175 6.2.3 Biomass certification as social trend 177 6.3 Give the bio-economy a chance by ‘learning by doing’ 178 6.3.1 Learning by doing, proceeding with caution 178 6.3.2 Intelligent incorporation of biomass applications 180 6.4 Between biology and technology 181 6.4.1 The role of biotechnology 181 6.4.2 Bio-economy and notions of naturalness 183 6.5 The twofold challenge of innovation 183 Bibliography 184 7 Getting to the core of the bio-economy: policy recommendations 187 Lotte Asveld, Rinie van Est and Dirk Stemerding About the authors 191 Interviewees 193 Advisory Committee 194 Rathenau Instituut 11 Executive Summary The bio-economy is a highly promising prospect for a more sustainable economy.