THE POLICY INSTITUTE Divided Britain? Polarisation and fragmentation trends in the UK Bobby Duffy Kirstie Hewlett Julian McCrae John Hall September 2019 About the authors Bobby Duffy is Director of the Policy Institute at King’s College London Kirstie Hewlett is a Research Associate at the Policy Institute Julian McCrae is Managing Director of Engage Britain John Hall is an independent consultant Editorial, design and production by George Murkin and Lizzie Ellen © The Policy Institute at King’s College London, 2019 Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 04 1. INTRODUCTION 14 2. DEFINING POLARISATION 20 3. POLARISATION TRENDS 32 4. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE 84 APPENDIX: REA SEARCH 90 REFERENCES 96 September 2019 | Divided Britain? 3 Executive summary As the results of the EU referendum were announced, political leaders were quick to say that the outcome had ‘revealed a divided Britain’, and have since asserted the need for politicians on all sides to unite and ‘bring the country back together, rather than entrenching division’. But the phrase ‘Divided Britain’ has taken root in our everyday lexicon and is now frequently used to capture a growing sense of social and political polarisation in our country, driven by the national split revealed and reinforced by the Brexit vote. Headlines warn that we are seeing a ‘more tribalised Britain’, a nation more ‘bitterly divided’ than during the miners’ strike, the poll tax protests of the 1990s and the Iraq War. Politicians refer to ‘these increasingly polarised times’ with such frequency and certainty that it goes largely unquestioned. Too often, terms such as ‘division’ In some ways this is not surprising. Division is very clearly and ‘polarisation’ suggested by a near 50-50 vote in the referendum, alongside are used even the most casual scan of the survey evidence and interchangeably fractious discussion around Brexit and our current politics. But there is far less serious analysis of the nature and scale of the problem, based on clear concepts and definitions. Too often, terms such as ‘division’ and ‘polarisation’ are used interchangeably, accepted as synonymous and universally understandable, when they are distinct, complex and contested concepts. Encouraging more precision in how we define polarisation and the evidence supporting it, as this report attempts to do, is not an exercise in academic pedantry. Understanding the true position and trajectory helps point to actions and avoid risks, such as talking ourselves into problems we don’t have, or missing what’s really happening and therefore overlooking likely future trends. 4 Divided Britain? | September 2019 This report outlines conceptual frameworks that are relevant to this debate – distinguishing, in particular, between issue- based and affective forms of polarisation, as summarised in Figure 1. Using these frameworks, we then review the available evidence of polarisation in the UK (including a comparison with the US and Europe) and reflect on what this may mean for the UK’s future. FIGURE 1: Issue polarisation DEFINITIONS OF BIMODALITY CONFLICT POLARISATION DISPERSION EXTENSION towards the of opinion, forming across a range of furthermost around two modes issues that cohere extremes of identity with little middle around a particular or electorate or opinion ground identity SALIENCE in the relative weight that issues carry, aecting how polarised the environment feels Aective polarisation IDENTIFICATION DIFFERENTIATION PERCEPTION BIAS with an “in-group” of in-group from that leads to based on shared out-group that leads dierent views of the opinions, values to favourability and world and influences and beliefs denigraion decisions Each applying across political class and/ Is the UK polarising? The United States has been the main focus of research on polarisation to date, and is therefore a useful reference point, even though the nature and extent of polarisation in the US is more contested than it first seems. UK trends are also not fully captured by a simple reading across of how polarisation has evolved there – not least because we are experiencing extremely rapid and volatile changes driven by the unique circumstances of Brexit. September 2019 | Divided Britain? 5 Key terms to better understand the debate on polarisation Issue polarisation: the divisions Affective polarisation: when individuals formed around one or more policy begin to segregate themselves socially positions or issues. Some also argue and to distrust and dislike people that, to be meaningfully polarising, from the opposing side, irrespective issues need to be important (or of whether they disagree on matters ‘salient’) to a large section of the of policy. public, not just a minority of people with strongly held views. Key terms relating to affective polarisation Key terms relating to issue polarisation Identification with a particular group based on a shared opinion or position Dispersion: increasing distance (an ‘in-group), typically measured between the furthermost poles of by the strength of support for a opinion. This could mean that the particular political party or equivalent. full spectrum of opinion expands or moves toward more extreme Differentiation of the group that positions, even though a majority may someone identifies with from opposing still hold moderate views. groups, which are often referred to as ‘out-groups’. This can involve Bi-modality: where opinions cluster associating positive traits with people around two distinct positions. These who belong to the same side and positions may not necessarily be negative traits with opposing groups, the most strongly held or extreme or actively disliking or avoiding social opinions – there is instead simply a contact with individuals on the basis hollowing out of the middle ground on their political identity. between them. Perception bias: where people Conflict extension: where opinions experience the same realities in grow divided on a range of issue completely different ways, based positions associated with a given on the identities with which they identity, rather than having just one associate. For example, clear biases dominant issue on which each side have been detected in relation to disagrees, such as abortion or Leave and Remain identities, with immigration. those on each side having a different interpretation of the claim that the UK Salience: the relative weight that sends the EU £350 million per week. different topics carry (ie how much people care about them). Salience is therefore greater when the mass public cares strongly about an issue, which is important because it affects how polarised the political environment feels. 6 Divided Britain? | September 2019 Key terms to better understand the debate on polarisation (continued) Partisan: in the context of this report, Partisan dealignment: where a large partisan refers to a strong supporter portion of the electorate abandons of a political party or cause. its previous partisan (political party) affiliation, without developing a new Party sorting: where the public switch one to replace it to supporting parties that better reflect their views, or where parties Party-system fragmentation: where adapt their policies to better reflect more parties become electorally the position of their supporters. effective, and traditional parties find it harder to achieve overall majorities. Unlike the US, where the electorate has increasingly sorted into two partisan identities, the UK shows evidence of long- term ‘partisan dealignment’, where a large portion of the electorate abandons its previous political party affiliation, without yet developing a new one to replace it. This fragmentation within the UK political system – and within Brexit identities individual parties – is important for understanding recent have established trends. themselves in an extremely short Three key points emerge from our review of the available period of time, evidence in the UK: often surpassing traditional party The number of people who strongly identify with a identities 1. political party has declined significantly, and is now far exceeded by the number who strongly identify with their side of the Brexit vote. By 2018, only 9 per cent of the electorate said they very strongly identified with a political party, compared with nearly half of the electorate in the 1960s. In contrast, Brexit identities have established themselves in an extremely short period of time, often surpassing traditional party identities. For example, 44 per cent say they very strongly identify with their side of the Brexit vote, compared with 9 per cent who very strongly identify with their political party. September 2019 | Divided Britain? 7 2. People on both sides of the Brexit vote dislike the opposing side intensely even though they don’t necessarily disagree with their positions on salient issues. There is strong evidence of this ‘affective polarisation’, which is revealed in two ways: • ‘Differentiation’, where one side views the other side’s traits as negative and its own traits as positive, or one side reduces interaction with the other side. • ‘Perception bias’, whereby people experience the same realities in completely different ways, depending on the Brexit identities with which they associate. The extent of this affective polarisation around Brexit matches or surpasses that seen around political party identities. 3. Evidence that the UK has become more polarised when it comes to people’s positions on salient issues is much less clear. In the run-up to the EU referendum, views were polarised on a range of highly salient issues, particularly immigration. But this issue – one of the key drivers of division in the referendum – has since declined significantly in salience, and perceptions of There are the impact of immigration have actually become more many aspects of attitudes positive, with a narrowing of the gap in opinion between and identity Leavers and Remainers. Added to this, there are many in the UK that aspects of attitudes and identity in the UK that are are converging converging rather than polarising, such as views on rather than key public policy challenges such as health and social polarising care, and on issues such as gender roles, homosexuality and racial prejudice.