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The Boring Index by Rob Mains

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The Boring Index by Rob Mains The Boring Index by Rob Mains We’ll start our Boring Index by adding a batter’s strikeouts Rob Mains has devised a formula to determine the and popups. At the All-Star break, the strikeout leader was least interesting players and teams in baseball, Miguel Sano with 120, and the popup leader was Mookie shedding light on historical performances from 2017 in the Betts with 48, believe it or not. But nobody’s going to call process. – Geoff Y. Sano or Betts boring. We need to adjust boring strikeouts and popups with excitement. Total bases are exciting! That way we give Sano and Betts credit for what they do when not striking out or hitting ne of the concerns about contemporary baseball is that popups. I’m proposing this formula: SO + POP - 0.55 x TB. Oit’s becoming boring. The Three True Outcomes1—walks, strikeouts, and home runs—have Why that factor of 0.55? Because accumulating every plate accounted for more than a third of all plate appearances as appearance since 1950 (the first year for which we have of the 2017 All-Star break, an all-time high. popup data), that formula gives us a value close to zero. If a player’s SO + POP - 0.55 x TB is greater than zero, he leans That means less action on the field. We’re not just talking boring. If it’s less than zero, he leans nonboring. And rather about, for example, fewer hit-and-runs; we’re talking less than go with raw numbers, let’s make this a rate stat by running altogether. Byron Buxton sprinting first-to-third, dividing it by plate appearances. Jarrod Dyson chasing down a liner to the gap, Yasiel Puig throwing out a runner—that’s exciting. Players walking to For example, this year Sano has 120 strikeouts, 11 popups, and from the dugout, trotting around the bases, or taking 162 total bases, and 345 plate appearances. (120 + 11 - 0.55 first base on a walk—not so much. On a related note, 42 x 162) / 345 = .121. For Betts, it’s (33 + 48 – 0.55 x 173) / 399 percent of runs so far this year have scored on homers, the = -.035. He’s been wholly nonboring. Let’s call this the Boring highest percentage ever. Index. The Boring Index, expressed like a batting average, is strikeouts plus popups minus 0.55 times total bases, all That being said, if you’re a fan, the Three True Outcomes divided by plate appearances. aren’t necessarily boring. A Red Sox fan doesn’t think Chris Sale strikeouts are boring. A Reds fan knows the mayhem Here is the all-time leaderboard among batters with 250 or that can follow a walk to Billy Hamilton. Yankees fans watch more plate appearances in a season: Aaron Judge at-bats hoping for a home run. The Three True Player Year PA SO POP TB Boring Index Outcomes are boring only if your team is the victim, not if it’s Adam Dunn 2011 496 177 31 115 .292 the perpetrator. Jon Singleton 2014 362 134 23 104 .276 So let’s try to quantify boredom from the perspective of Mike Olt 2014 258 100 13 80 .267 the batter, or of the fan watching the batter. A strikeout, if Mike Zunino 2015 386 132 28 105 .265 not fascist, is boring. Watching your team’s batters carry their Jeff Mathis 2008 328 90 44 90 .258 bats back to the dugout isn’t exciting. And you know what’s Rob Deer 1991 539 175 58 173 .256 an underrated play for being boring? Popups. Popups are Jeff Mathis 2011 281 75 30 64 .248 pretty much like strikeouts: automatic outs, no chance of Curtis Casali 2016 256 82 23 76 .247 advancing baserunners. (Well, like dropped third strikes, B.J. Upton 2013 446 151 21 113 .246 hardly ever.) Cody Ransom 2012 282 109 15 101 .243 Or, if you prefer, batting title qualifiers: 1. Dave Pease notes that Christina Kahrl coined the term Three True Outcomes in an email exchange between them discussing what would soon become the now-defunct Rob Deer Fan Club. Kahrl goes into additional detail here: http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/appreciating-new-baseball-lingo-tootblan-maddux-three-true- outcomes-062915 131 DIAMOND INSIGHTS 2018 Player Year PA SO POP TB Boring Index Espinosa, with his .162/.237/.276 slash line, is in rarefied Rob Deer 1991 539 175 58 173 .256 territory, but he seems likely to fall short of Dunn’s all-time Rob Deer 1993 532 169 52 180 .229 record, and after being cut by the Angels over the weekend Mark Reynolds 2010 596 211 43 216 .227 he’s not on pace to accumulate enough plate appearances to Dan Uggla 2013 537 171 33 162 .214 challenge Deer’s record for batting title qualifiers. Story and Chris Carter 2013 585 212 35 228 .208 Buxton are on track to finish in the top 10 all time among Carlos Pena 2012 600 182 37 176 .204 batting title qualifiers, but not at the top of the list.2 So for all Rob Deer 1990 511 147 61 190 .203 of the legitimate complaints about the way baseball is being Drew Stubbs 2012 544 166 31 164 .196 played in 2017, nobody’s as boring as some of the players in Rob Deer 1989 532 158 55 198 .196 the recent past. Mickey Tettleton 1990 559 160 42 169 .195 But how about teams? Are there clubs that are threatening Basically Rob Deer and some other guys. to set a new standard for being boring? Here are the all-time As a reality check, I looked at the least-boring players since top 10: 1950. I think this passes the sniff est t: Team Year PA SO POP TB Boring Index Player Year PA SO POP TB Boring Index Astros 2013 6,020 1,535 250 2,049 .109 George Brett 1980 515 22 12 298 -.252 Cubs 2014 6,102 1,477 330 2,118 .105 Ted Kluszewski 1954 659 35 6 368 -.245 Padres 2016 6,000 1,500 293 2,115 .105 Ted Williams 1955 417 24 0 225 -.239 Astros 2014 6,055 1,442 304 2,084 .099 Don Mattingly 1986 742 35 2 388 -.238 Mariners 2011 5,972 1,280 335 1,887 .097 Carl Furillo 1953 518 32 0 278 -.233 Diamondbacks 2010 6,183 1,529 316 2,275 .096 Ted Williams 1950 416 21 4 216 -.225 Brewers 2016 6,061 1,543 231 2,168 .096 Yogi Berra 1950 656 12 15 318 -.225 Cubs 2015 6,200 1,518 272 2,186 .095 Don Mattingly 1985 727 41 0 370 -.224 Astros 2012 6,014 1,365 304 2,008 .094 Stan Musial 1951 678 40 6 355 -.220 Mets 2013 6,207 1,384 317 2,035 .094 Don Mattingly 1984 662 33 0 324 -.219 It probably won’t surprise you that, rebuild project done, this No, I don’t entirely trust those popup numbers from years year’s Astros are the only team in the majors with a negative past, either. But that’s a good list, isn’t it? George Brett in Boring Index. Might anyone challenge the 2013 version of the 1980 played only 117 games due to injuries but hit club? .390/.454/.664. His TAv was .392. He had 10.3 WARP and was Team PA SO POP TB Boring Index an easy choice for MVP. And he struck out in only four percent Padres 3,219 840 201 1,108 .134 of his plate appearances. You know who’s struck out that Athletics 3,337 852 177 1,256 .101 infrequently this season? Nobody. Rangers 3,319 819 188 1,269 .093 So who’s The Most Boring Man in the World this year? Is Rays 3,465 874 175 1,369 .085 anyone challenging Dunn’s single-season record, or Deer’s as Phillies 3,259 751 145 1,168 .078 a batting title qualifier? Here’s where we stood at the break, Orioles 3,341 779 192 1,303 .076 minimum 125 plate appearances: Brewers 3,477 874 138 1,399 .070 Cubs 3,373 743 171 1,236 .069 Player PA SO POP TB Boring Index Twins 3,386 735 176 1,238 .068 Danny Espinosa 254 91 15 63 .281 Giants 3,447 665 192 1,162 .063 Ryan Schimpf 197 70 19 70 .256 Chris Carter 208 76 13 68 .248 Why, yes, someone might. The Padres, who appear to be Mike Zunino 222 87 17 92 .241 running some sort of weird personnel experiment this year, 3 Trevor Story 284 100 20 101 .227 are on pace to shatter the team Boring Index record. So far Byron Buxton 283 87 19 78 .223 they’re fourth in strikeouts, third in popups, and last in total Joey Gallo 291 112 18 126 .209 bases. They’re slashing .243/.303/.374, which, among the 30 Tyler Saladino 128 35 7 30 .199 teams, equates to last/last/last. There may be no player on Matt Davidson 257 106 12 124 .194 pace to take over as the all-time Most Boring Man in the Cameron Rupp 197 66 7 64 .192 World, but the Padres may be The Most Boring Team in the World, Ever. n 2. For the record, Espinosa did overtake Dunn, finishing at .293 thanks to two miserable eight-game stints in Seattle and Tampa Bay.
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