Three-way Lines Mask Overvalued NHL Favorites

By Jarvis Simes, www.picksixtysports.com

Betting on big moneyline favorites in hockey or baseball is a dangerous path, usually leading to the poorhouse or at least a quick reload for those with deep pockets. Once bettors realize that, there is often temptation toward run, or puck line betting, parlays or perhaps the alternate spread betting that allows you to lay a single with a reduced price, covering the oh so common wins that have accounted for nearly 25-percent of this year’s outcomes to date. Check it out with this SDQL Text:

W and season=2014 and (overtime=0,1 or overtime=1,1)

The next option to consider for chalk bettors is called a three-way line, requiring the favorite to lay a half-goal and win the game in regulation time. Some online sportsbooks have this listed as ‘regulation betting’ or ’60 minute betting’ and some of the old school books, which function more like a dated sports betting shop off Freemont Street, don’t have it at all.

This can be a good betting option for hockey and the mentality is that you’re backing a team who you expect to get the job done without the use of overtime and shootouts, which are another gamble onto their own. One thing you want to take into account, though, before booking a fave to win in regulation is the team’s tendency. Three- games happen every night in hockey and some of the league’s top division leaders have thrived playing defensively through the final five minutes to secure a single point before cranking it back up for a push during the extra frame.

THE USUAL SUSPECTS Here’s a handy code you can use for determining which NHL teams have the greatest number of wins and losses in regulation when laying more than -120 on the moneyline, with a third column dedicated to one-goal margins of victory.

Sum(margin>=2) as w, Sum(margin<1) as l, Sum(margin=1) as T @t:line<=-120 and team and overtime=0 and season=2014

For bigger favorites, simply increase the ‘line’ parameter and then to ensure you are focused on teams which won’t require laying too much juice on top of the half-goal, try this SDQL Text:

Sum(margin>=1) as w, Sum(margin<1) as l @ -180<=t:line<=-150 and team and overtime=0 and playoffs=0 and season>=2010

If you sort the output by number number of wins by clicking on the “w” column header, you’ll note that the top teams in this category account for eight of the past 10 champions. From this point, feel free to add parameters such as site, previous result and conference/non-conference games.

FINDING VALUE Now that we know which favorites win the most games in regulation time, it’s time to compare value against the odds for laying a half-goal. Note that the average adjustment when betting a three-way line for a moneyline favorite of -150 to -180 is 65 or 70 cents. For an example, we’ll use the , who recently hosted the as a -172 moneyline fave (March 21, 2015).

Step 1: Check the Kings’ record as a big home favorite in the past five years (47-24 SU on an average line of -185), as can be seen by running this SDQL text:

-250 <= t:line <= -150 and team = Kings and playoffs = 0 and season >= 2010 and H and overtime = 0

Step 2: Run a separate query displaying how many times Los Angeles went into overtime (win or lose) during that same span. With the following SDQL text we can see that the Kings had a 10-13 record in games that went to OT and the average line in these games was -183.

-250 <= t:line <= -150 and team = Kings and playoffs = 0 and season >= 2010 and H and overtime = 1

What I derived from these two codes is that although the Kings are 57-37 (.606) straight-up at home as a big fave, they are only 47-47 (.500) in regulation time (24 regulation losses plus 23 overtime games, regardless of result). Using implied probability (IP) on an average line of -185, a team needs to hit .649 (185/285) just to break even and the regulation line for this matchup vs. the Canucks was LA -.5 at -105 (no value).

Los Angeles had dominated the Canucks in recent meetings so for the sake of argument, let’s run the numbers on the Kings laying 1.5 goals (puckline). In the 94 games listed, the Kings had won 30 by more than one goal (.319) and the puckline price for -185 favorite is roughly +175. The implied probability on +175 is .367 (100/275) so the argument can be made that there is little to no value playing on the Los Angeles Kings to win as a large home favorite.

The outcome from this game was a 4-1 upset by the Canucks, pushing the ‘ROI’ against Los Angeles to +6.1-percent on moneyline bets alone. It’s just one example but use this strategy anytime you are considering laying pucks or runs on a big moneyline favorite and make sure you’re getting ‘value’ to go along with your hard work.

Jarvis writes SDQL content regularly at www.picksixtysports.com – Follow @PickSixtySports on Twitter for updates!