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Based Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Hatiya of Noakhali of Bangladesh

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Based Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Hatiya of Noakhali of Bangladesh Index Based Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Hatiya of Noakhali of Bangladesh By Md. Nahid Hasan Raju MASTER OF SCIENCE IN WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE OF WATER AND FLOOD MANAGEMENT BANGLADESH UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY November, 2015 Index Based Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Hatiya of Noakhali of Bangladesh By Md. Nahid Hasan Raju A thesis submitted to the Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) of Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Water Resources Development INSTITUTE OF WATER AND FLOOD MANAGEMENT BANGLADESH UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY November, 2015 i INSTITUTE OF WATER AND FLOOD MANAGEMENT BANGLADESH UNIVERSITY OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY The thesis titled ‘Index Based Climate Vulnerability Assessment for Hatiya of Noakhali of Bangladesh’ submitted by Md. Nahid Hasan Raju, Roll No. M1009282014P, Session October 2009, has been accepted as satisfactory in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Science in Water Resources Development on November 28, 2015. BOARD OF EXAMINERS ii CANDIDATE’S DECLARATION iii Dedicated to the People of Hatiya iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I am privileged to take the opportunity to thank those who made it possible for me to complete this thesis. First and foremost, I would like to show my deepest gratitude to Almighty Allah. I am extremely grateful to my supervisor, Dr. A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Professor, Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka for his perpetual encouragement, generous help and support to made this study done through developing my knowledgebase, problem solving clue giving and experience sharing in this thesis work planning, designing and execution. His guidance and advices during this research work are sincerely appreciated. His visions on research methods and incredible supervision skills has made this task a significant degree less difficult than it could have been. I am grateful to Ms. Martha Y. Aguilar, Office of the Minister of the Environment and Natural Resources, El Salvador for her outmost support through providing me the project report on climate vulnerability assessment in El Salvador. I am very grateful to Dr. Syed Hafizur Rahman, Professor, Department of Environmental Sciences, Jahangirnagar University, Dr. G.M. Tarekul Islam, Professor and Director and Dr. Sujit Kumar Bala, Professor, IWFM, BUET for their valuable time to serve as examiner for this research. I am very much thankful to Swapan Chandra Dey and Md. Oli Uddin for their support as field enumerator to carry month-long field survey and also for their thoughts and experiences to develop the questionnaire. I want also express my gratitude to Md. Shariful Islam, Research Officer, Climate-Resilient Ecosystems and Livelihoods (CREL) Project for his contribution in developing the maps of this study. Special thanks to Md. Golam Rabbani Fahad, Research Assistant, IWFM, BUET, for his support in getting the model data and associated process. I am deeply grateful to the all respondents and anonymous persons of Hatiya who have made their contribution to this research. v ABSTRACT Climate change is the major threat to Bangladesh, and the elongated coastline is the primary victim of the climate extremes. Geographically Bangladesh is at critical location to be vulnerable to climate change. The impact of climate change has been increasing day by day, and the measuring local impact or vulnerability is essential to plan coping strategy. At global scale, there are several tools and techniques to measure vulnerability, whereas country specific tool is absent for Bangladesh. For developing an effective tool to measure vulnerability, Hatiya was selected to conduct the study as vulnerable location. The method of quantifying climate vulnerability index (CVI) has two separate parts- a) assessing the exposure (climate threat) by analyzing historical and regional climate model data, b) the other part is assessing the resilience and adaptability through participatory process and their future projections. Impact of climate change or the climate threat index (CTI) or exposure is calculated from observed (historical) and model data for baseline (2010) and projected 3 future so called time-slices of each 30 years period (i.e. 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). The participatory results for resilience and adaptability are also projected to the same timeslices. Finally, the CVI is measured with a comprehensive empirical formula using the all three sub- indices. The results are denoted in the scale of 0 to 1, which means the minimum value of CVI could be 0 and the maximum value could be 1. The result of this study coincides with the general perception of vulnerability. The value of CVI from observed data is similar to the model data. On the other hand, model data have given regular incremental trends of CVI for a particular location. The least vulnerable location of Hatiya is Sonadia and most vulnerable location is Nalchira. Physical exposure and socio-cultural cohesions were the major impacted factors for determining CVI for different locations of Hatiya. The study also revealed that better access to resources or facilities does not necessarily mean that the locations are less vulnerable and have high adaptability and resilience because the socio-cultural and natural variables have significant impacts on vulnerability. This comprehensive approach may be used to assess the vulnerability of data-scarce communities or systems for designing initiatives to reduce the vulnerability of climate change. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS BOARD OF EXAMINERS ....................................................................................... ii CANDIDATE’S DECLARATION ..........................................................................iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ......................................................................................... v ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ......................................................................................... vii LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................... xi LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................xiii ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ............................................................... xiv CHAPTER 1 : INTRODUCTION .............................................................................. 1 1.1 Background and Present State of the Problem ................................................ 1 1.2 Rationale of the Study ..................................................................................... 2 1.3 Objectives of the Study ................................................................................... 2 1.4 Possible Outcomes of the Study ...................................................................... 2 1.5 Limitations of the Study .................................................................................. 3 1.6 Organizations of the Chapters ......................................................................... 3 CHAPTER 2 : LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................. 4 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Climate Change and the Drivers ..................................................................... 4 2.2.1 Climate Change Scenario ............................................................................ 5 2.3 Assessing Vulnerability................................................................................... 6 2.3.1 Adaptability ................................................................................................. 6 2.3.2 Vulnerability ................................................................................................ 6 2.3.3 Resilience..................................................................................................... 7 2.3.4 Exposure ...................................................................................................... 7 2.4 Climate Change Detection Index .................................................................... 8 2.4.1 Climate Change Core Indices ...................................................................... 8 vii 2.4.2 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways ................................................................ 8 2.4.3 Climate Vulnerability Index Global Perspective ....................................... 10 2.4.4 Climate Vulnerability Index in Bangladesh .............................................. 12 CHAPTER 3 : CHARACTERIZATION OF THE STUDY AREA ...................... 13 3.1 Socio-Economic Background ........................................................................ 13 3.1.1 Location ..................................................................................................... 13 3.1.2 Administrative Setup ................................................................................. 14 3.1.3 Demography .............................................................................................. 14 3.1.3.1 Population .............................................................................................. 14 3.1.3.2 Household structure
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