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The Effect of Radiative Transfer on the Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone and Hurricane Steering Dante Christopher Diaz

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The Effect of Radiative Transfer on the Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone and Hurricane Steering Dante Christopher Diaz Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2007 The Effect of Radiative Transfer on the Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone and Hurricane Steering Dante Christopher Diaz Follow this and additional works at the FSU Digital Library. For more information, please contact [email protected] THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES THE EFFECT OF RADIATIVE TRANSFER ON THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AND HURRICANE STEERING By DANTE DIAZ A Thesis submitted to the Department of Meteorology in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Degree Awarded: Fall Semester, 2007 The members of the Committee approve the Thesis of Dante Diaz defended on 25 October 2007. ____________________________ T. N. Krishnamurti Professor Directing Thesis ____________________________ Robert E. Hart Committee Member ____________________________ Guosheng Liu Committee Member The Office of Graduate Studies has verified and approved the above named committee members. ii I am dedicating this thesis to my parents Maria and Richard. I would like to thank you for your undying love support over the years. You were instrumental throughout my academic career and I could never thank you enough for all that you have done for me. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to take this opportunity to thank those that have helped me in this academic endeavor. Foremost, I would like to thank my Major Professor, Dr. T. N. Krishnamurti, and my committee members, Dr. Robert Hart and Dr. Guosheng Liu for all your guidance. I have the greatest appreciation for all the advice and help that members of the “Krish Lab” have given me in completing this effort. Thank you Arindam, Biswas, Sandeep, Akilesh, and Lydia. I am grateful for all the support and advice from my friends in the “Krish Lab” and in the Meteorology Department. You know who you are. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................. vii LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................ viii ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................ xiii 1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................... 1 1.1 Objectives and Organization of Thesis....................................................... 1 1.2 Storm Selection and Histories.................................................................... 2 1.2.1 Hurricane Cindy....................................................................... 3 1.2.2 Hurricane Gert.......................................................................... 3 1.2.3 Hurricane Isaac......................................................................... 4 1.3 Basics of the Subtropical Anticyclone........................................................ 5 2. FSU GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL ................................................................ 7 2.1 Overview of the FSUGSM......................................................................... 7 2.2 The Band Model........................................................................................ 10 2.2.1 Longwave Radiation................................................................. 10 2.2.2 Shortwave Radiation ................................................................ 15 2.2.3 Defining Clouds in the FSUGSM ............................................. 16 3. SENSITIVITY TO RADIATIVE TRANSFER.................................................... 19 3.1 Overview................................................................................................... 19 3.2 Results ...................................................................................................... 20 3.2.1 Surface Presentation of the Subtropical Anticyclone................. 20 3.2.2 Hurricane Tracks...................................................................... 30 3.2.3 Steering Flow ........................................................................... 34 3.2.1 Steering Vectors....................................................................... 45 4. SUMMARY AND FUTURE WORK.................................................................. 62 4.1 Discussion and Conclusions....................................................................... 62 4.2 Future Work .............................................................................................. 64 v REFERENCES ........................................................................................................ 65 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH.................................................................................... 68 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Water Vapor Absorption Parameters based on Chou (1984)..................... 12 Table 2.2: Carbon Dioxide Spectral Band Parameters based on Chou and Peng (1983)....................................................................................... 13 Table 2.3: Ozone Coefficients from Rodgers (1968)................................................. 14 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1: Selected MSLP overlays with one image for each day in the period 12Z 26 August 1999 through 12Z 31 August 1999. The contour interval is 2 hPa................................................................... 22 Figure 3.2: Daily averaged MSLP for the period 12Z 26 August 1999 through 12Z 31 August 1999. The shaded regions are in 2 hPa increments..................................................................................... 23 Figure 3.3: Selected MSLP overlays with one image for each day in the period 12Z 18 September 1999 through 12Z 23 September 1999. The contour interval is 2 hPa. ........................................................ 25 Figure 3.4: Daily averaged MSLP for the period 12Z 18 September 1999 through 12Z 23 September 1999. The shaded regions are in 2 hPa increments..................................................................................... 26 Figure 3.5: Selected MSLP overlays with one image for each day in the period 12Z 26 September 2000 through 12Z 01 October 2000. The contour interval is 2 hPa. ....................................................... 28 Figure 3.6: Daily averaged MSLP for the period 12Z 26 September 2000 through 12Z 01 October 2000. The shaded regions are in 2 hPa increments..................................................................................... 29 Figure 3.7: Model tracks and observed track for a 120-hour forecast. The black X’s indicate position markers for temporal reference (hour 114)................................................................................ 31 Figure 3.8: The separation distance between the model tracks increases at a faster rate after hour 60..................................................................... 31 Figure 3.9: Model tracks and observed track for a 120-hour forecast. The black X’s indicate position markers for temporal reference (hour 108)................................................................. 33 Figure 3.10: The separation distance increases the fastest after hour 72.................... 33 viii Figure 3.11: Model tracks and observed track for a 120-hour forecast. The black X’s indicate position markers for temporal reference (hour 120)................................................................ 35 Figure 3.12: After hour 60 the separation distance is always greater than at any previous forecast time.................................................................. 35 Figure 3.13: Selected streamline plots showing the averaged 700-850 hPa layer steering flow with one image for each day in the period 12Z 26 August 1999 through 12Z 31 August 1999. The black X’s mark the location of the hurricane at the time given with radiation................................................................................................. 37 Figure 3.14: Selected streamline plots showing the averaged 700-850 hPa layer steering flow with one image for each day in the period 12Z 26 August 1999 through 12Z 31 August 1999. The black X’s mark the location of the hurricane at the time given with no radiation............................................................................................ 38 Figure 3.15: Selected streamline overlays showing the averaged 700-850 hPa layer steering flow with one image for each day in the period 12Z 26 August 1999 through 12Z 31 August 1999. Note the displacement of the no radiation steering pattern in the last two days. .................................................................................................... 39 Figure 3.16: Selected streamline plots showing the averaged 700-850 hPa steering flow with one image for each day in the period 12Z 18 September 1999 through 12Z 23 September 1999. The black X’s mark the location of the hurricane at the time given with radiation. ............................................................................. 41 Figure 3.17: Selected streamline plots showing the averaged 700-850 hPa steering flow with one image for each day in the period 12Z 18 September 1999 through 12Z 23 September 1999. The black X’s mark the location of the hurricane at the time given with no radiation. ........................................................................ 42 Figure 3.18: Selected streamline overlays showing the averaged 700-850 hPa layer steering flow with one image for each day in the period 12Z 18 September
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