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US Bank Outlook 2021

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US Bank Outlook 2021 Stuart Plesser U.S. Bank Outlook 2021: Brendan Browne Devi Aurora Picking Up The Pieces And Moving On January 13, 2020 U.S. Bank Outlook 2021 | Contents Key Takeaways 3 Key Risks 4 Credit Conditions 5 U.S. Elections Impact 6 Ratings Distribution 7 2021 Forecast 9 Profitability 10 Allowances and Asset Quality 13 Commercial Real Estate, Energy, And Consumers 18 Capital Ratios 24 Deposits 27 LIBOR 28 Mergers and Acquisitions 29 Digitization 30 Subgroups and Related Research 31 Key Takeaways Key Expectations – Bank earnings will improve on lower credit loss provisions, although pandemic-related asset quality challenges and decades-low net interest margins will keep profitability ratios below 2019 levels. – The recently passed $900 billion stimulus bill, continued economic growth, and vaccine distribution will keep credit losses from rising as high as we had anticipated earlier in the pandemic. – Loan charge-offs triggered by the pandemic will move toward our updated estimate for the U.S. banking system of 2.2% rather than our prior 3% estimate. – With provisions, which equated to about 1.2% of loans in the first three quarters of 2020, falling to 1% or less of loans in 2021, allowances for credit losses will shrink. – The Biden Administration and a Democrat-controlled Congress could push for more stimulus--which may benefit the economy and bank asset quality--but also higher corporate taxes and tougher regulatory and legal enforcement, which could pose risks for banks. – Capital and liquidity will remain in good shape. However, regulatory capital ratios, which rose in 2020 in part due to restrictions on shareholder payouts, will likely decline with the easing of those restrictions. Key Assumptions – U.S. real GDP will rebound at a modest 4.2% in 2021 after an estimated 3.9% contraction in 2020. – GDP will reach its pre-pandemic level sometime in 2021, but unemployment will remain above pre-pandemic levels until after 2023. 3 Key Risks A further decline in net A stalling of the economic A downturn in commercial interest income due to A slower-than-expected rebound amid a sharp rise real estate (CRE) due to additional pressure from distribution of the vaccine in coronavirus cases secular changes low rates or lackluster loan growth A sharper-than-expected decline in capital related to A failure to adequately Unexpected changes in An inability of many banks an easing of restrictions on prepare for the end of regulation, enforcement, or to keep up with fintech payouts, mergers, asset LIBOR in June 2023 tax policy growth or other factors Credit Conditions | North America S&P Global U.S. Economic Forecast Overview – We expect the U.S. economy to have contracted 3.9% in 2020 with downside risk to our forecasted 4.2% recovery in 2021. – We expect real GDP to return to precrisis levels around third-quarter 2021, assuming no further stimulus beyond the recent $900 billion bill. – The unemployment rate won't reach precrisis levels until 2024. – We expect the benchmark federal funds rate to remain at 0% until 2023. Note: All percentages are annual averages, unless otherwise noted. Core CPI is consumer price index excluding energy and food components. f--forecast. Data as of Dec 2, 2020. Sources: BEA, BLS, The Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, and S&P Global Economics Forecasts. 5 What The 2020 U.S. Elections Could Mean For Banks – Democrat control of the Presidency and both houses of Congress likely increases the odds of more fiscal stimulus, a higher corporate tax rate, and tougher regulatory and legal enforcement. Direction of change (somewhat worse versus somewhat better for banks) Tax policy Fiscal stimulus / PPP Prudential regulation Regulatory / legal enforcement Fintechs Source: S&P Global Ratings Holding Company Rating Distribution Rating Company Holding Current U.S. Bank U.S. Current 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0% 5% Note: Includes Puerto Rican banks. Data as of Dec 31, 2020. of Decas 31, 2020. banks. Rican Data Includes PuertoNote: AAA AA+ AA AA- 12/31/2020 A+ A A- BBB+ Ratings Distribution Ratings BBB 12/31/2019 Source: S&P Ratings.Global BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ Operating Bank Rating Distribution Rating Bank Operating 10% 15% 20% 25% 0% 5% AAA AA+ AA AA- 12/31/2020 A+ A A- BBB+ BBB 12/31/2019 BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+ 7 Current U.S. Bank Outlooks Distribution Holding Company Outlook Distribution Operating Bank Outlook Distribution Positive Stable Negative Positive Stable Negative 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Money Center Banks 4 Money Center Banks 4 Regional Banks 3 23 20 Regional Banks 3 27 24 Trust Banks 3 Trust Banks 3 Broker Dealers 2 Broker Dealers 2 Total HoldCo Ratings 3 31 21 Total OpCo Ratings 3 36 24 The three entities on positive have ratings on CreditWatch with positive implications. Money Center Banks--Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan. Broker Dealers--Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs. Trust Banks--Bank of New York Mellon, Northern Trust, State Street. Note: Includes Puerto Rican banks. Data as of Dec 31, 2020. Source: S&P Global Ratings. 8 2021 Forecast | Hinging On Pandemic Control Worsening Neutral Improving Ultralow interest rates will continue to hurt spread income with margins near multidecade lows with some offset from the recent Revenues yield curve steepening. Loan growth has recently been tepid—with consumers lowering leverage and commercial borrowers turning to the capital markets—and may only partially offset the pressure of low rates. A drop from 2020’s elevated revenues from capital markets and mortgage activity could lead to an overall drop in fees. Expenses will remain in sharp focus. Banks will manage costs by redeploying personnel, consolidating branches, containing head Expenses count, and growing digitization, but rising servicing expenses will somewhat offset this. We expect positive operating leverage will remain a challenge for many banks. While banks are likely to report mediocre profitability, they should see somewhat better earnings than in 2020. We expect provisions Profitability to decline but remain higher than in 2019. Allowances, which surged in the first half of 2020, should begin to abate. However, revenue pressure will limit returns on equity to the single digits. Although banks have seen drops in loans on forbearance, certain loan classes remain under asset quality pressure and we expect Credit quality pandemic-related charge-offs to rise toward 2% (taken cumulatively in 2020 and 2021). The strength of the economy and the effectiveness of government stimulus will greatly influence that ratio. Banks have maintained or improved upon the good regulatory capital ratios they entered the pandemic with due in part to Capital restrictions on payouts and a delay of the impact of CECL (current expected credit losses) regulation. However, ratios should decline somewhat due to the Fed’s easing of payout restrictions beginning in 2021. Extraordinary expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet after the onset of the pandemic has once again lowered deposit costs, which will Funding & liquidity likely persist. Liquidity for most banks is likely to remain robust, aided by significant deposit inflows on the heels of the Fed's massive quantitative easing measures. 9 Bank Profitability To Improve But Remain Weaker Than In 2019 – Bank profits are likely to rise meaningfully on a drop in provisions. However, provisions should remain higher than in 2019. – Low rates will also continue to weigh on net interest margins and limit any rebound in preprovision net revenue (PPNR). – We expect banks to earn a return on average equity of around 9% and 10% in 2021 and 2022. All FDIC-Insured Banks: Historical and Forecasted Performance PPNR Provisions for Loan Losses Net Income ROAE (right axis) 400 12% 350 10% 300 ) 8% bil 250 ($ 200 6% 150 4% 100 2% 50 0 0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E Source: FDIC data. Copyright © 2018 by Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. 10 The Lowest NIM In Decades Will Weigh On PPNR And Profitability Effective Federal Funds, 3-Month LIBOR, And 10- year Treasury Median NIM Of Rated Banks Rates Effective Federal Funds Rate, Percent, Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted Regionals Money Center 10-Year Treasury Minus 2-Year Treasury, Constant Maturity 3-Month LIBOR based on U.S. Dollar 3.0% 4.0% 3.48% 3.41% 3.40% 3.37% 3.5% 3.27% 3.23% 2.0% 3.02% 2.91% 3.0% 2.50% 2.46% 2.43% 2.37% 2.40% 1.0% 2.5% 2.27% 2.08% 1.97% 2.0% 0.0% 1.5% 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 Yields and Costs: All Commercial Banks 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 5.42 6.0 5.26 5.05 4.40 4.32 4.25 4.07 3.81 4.0 3.06 3.25 3.20 3.09 2.84 2.68 2.57 2.0 1.19 1.37 1.19 1.03 0.83 0.98 0.43 0.32 0.53 0.40 0.0 Average Loans & Leases Average Earning Assets Average Interest-Bearing Deposits Average Interest-Bearing Liabilities Net Interest Margin Source: S&P Global Ratings; Company filings; FDIC; Regulatory filings; St. Louis Fed Economic Database. 11 Modest Loan Growth May Also Limit Earnings Improvement – Consumers may continue to pay down or limit credit card debt, and commercial borrowers may avoid drawing more on bank lines until the pandemic abates and the economy shows more signs of strength. – Banks may again increase PPP lending following the passage of the December stimulus bill, but those loans will not materially drive earnings or remain outstanding for more than a year.
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