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SPECIAL REPORT

Portuguese Legislative Election 2015: the search for governability

Lisbon, october 2015

BARCELONA BOGOTÁ BUENOS AIRES LIMA LISBOA MADRID MÉXICO MIAMI PANAMÁ QUITO RIO J SÃO PAULO SANTIAGO STO DOMINGO PORTUGUESE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2015: THE SEARCH FOR GOVERNABILITY

1. THE 5 KEY IDEAS REGARDING THE ELECTION

1. On the election night, said that he wan- 1. THE 5 KEY IDEAS REGARDING THE ELECTION ted to advance in the forming of the government through the centre-right coalition à Frente (PàF: PSD+CDS/PP), on 2. THE ELECTIONS ANALYZED BY the basis of the legislative election which he won, obtaining a EXPERTS: JAIME NOGUEIRA relative majority. This scenario requires a consensus and will PINTO AND ANDRÉ MACEDO make it necessary to seek alliances with other parties, both to 3. BIOGRAPHY OF THE PRIME make the government programme viable and for the remaining MINISTER issues. Thus the door has been opened to negotiations during 4. OTHER MAIN ACTORS the 13th presidency. Another aspect to be highlighted is the fact AUTHORS that, within the group of countries that were subject to financial intervention, Portugal was the only one where the ruling parties won the election. More specifically, the Coalition won, but it lost 25 MPS in the National Assembly of the Republic with respect to the 2011 Legislative Election, though dropping from 129 to 104.

2. The second largest party PS (Partido Socialista), was the main loser in the election night, remaining six points behind the coali- tion. Even though the PS has lost the election, its number of MPs increased with respect to 2011, from 74 to 85. After this defeat, the PS will hold a congress to define the party strategy and leader- ship, in principle in January 2016.

3. The Bloco de Esquerda (BE), which until now had been the four- th political force, was the great surprise on the election night, becoming the third most voted party in Portugal, surpassing the Portuguese Communist Party, both in terms of votes and of MPs. It had 10.22 % of votes, corresponding to 19 MPs, thus more than doubling its 2011 result, when it obtained 8 MPs in the National Assembly.

4. There is a new party with MPs in the National Assembly - this was the second surprise of the night of October 4th: Its name is PAN - Pessoas-Animais-Natureza (People-Animals-Nature) - and it was created in 2009, first took part in the 2011 Legislative Elec- tion, and has now obtained its first MP in 2015. Oddly enough, it was the only small party capable of achieving this feat, going from 1.04 % of votes to 1.39 %, enough to make it possible to elect an MP.

5. At the end of October 6, the President of the Republic welcomed the leader of the coalition PàF and subsequently he informed the country that Pedro Passos Coelho was given the task of dialo- guing with the remaining political parties, in particular with PS, the second most voted, to reach an agreement and form a stable and lasting government.

2 PORTUGUESE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2015: THE SEARCH FOR GOVERNABILITY

The Head of State, Cavaco Silva, This balance sheet takes place claims that this is “the time for ten days after the electoral act, commitment” necessary among therefore from 14 October. For the different parties. Therefore example in 2009 the government he maintains his call for matu- took office 29 days after the elec- “Between the end of rity and capacity for dialogue of tions and in 2011 the government October and beginning the parties, essential in demo- took office 16 days later. cratic regimes, in order to assure of November a formed political stability for Portugal Between the end of October and ready to rule and financial stability for credi- and beginning of November a government should be tors. During his communication formed and ready to rule govern- the night of October 6 he also ment should be established. established” highlighted the necessity for the future government to respect 2. THE ELECTIONS ANALY- international commitments, ZED BY EXPERTS: JAIME specifically the membership NOGUEIRA PINTO AND of NATO, and ANDRÉ MACEDO Eurozone. JAIME NOGUEIRA PINTO: THE The President of the Republic LEGISLATIVE ELECTION IN POR- can not appoint the Prime Mi- TUGAL - OUTCOME AND CONSE- nister before the publication of QUENCES the official results in the Diário da República, which happens The legislative election of 4 after the final balance sheet of October led to surprises and con- the results. tradictions and posed questions about Portugal's governability.

The Facts: The first surprise, Figure 1: Percentage of votes in 2015 and 2011 after four years of hard austerity, the centre-right coalition, Portu- gal à Frente (PàF), constituted by the parties PSD and CDS, hea- PS ded by Passos Coelho and Paulo 32,38% Portas. It has become the most voted option, with 38 % of votes and 104 of the 230 Parliament PàF PS seats (even before the allocation BE (PSD + CDS) 28,05% of the four Emigration seats). 38,55% 10,22% PSD Although the surveys in recent 38,66% CDS/PP CDU weeks had reflected this trend, it 11,71% 8,27% PPD/PSD had not existed at the beginning PCP/PEV PS 7,9% PAN of the summer. The election 1,39% CDS/PP 2015 BE 5,17% campaign made all the differen- ce. The (PS), with 2015 2011 2011 2015 PCP/PEV about 32.4% of votes and 85 seats, BE Source: 2015: SIC online / 2011: CNE – Comissão Nacional de Eleições did much worse than expected.

3 PORTUGUESE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2015: THE SEARCH FOR GOVERNABILITY

The PS is a party with a social- It also won due to the central democrat and pro-European tra- role of its leaders, Catarina dition, sometimes with a "leftist" Martins and Mariana Mortágua. rhetoric. With more than 10 % of votes, al- most 550,000 voters, it achieved In the campaign, its leader, its best results ever, doubling the António Costa, the former number of votes and obtaining Chairman of the City 19 seats in Parliament (it pre- Council, taking the Centre-Left viously had 8). for granted, made excessive use of rhetoric to capture the useful This was bad for the PS, but vote from the Left. But he failed. also for the PCP, the Portuguese Another surprise was the Bloco Communist Party, which took de Esquerda, a party founded part in the election as part of the in 2000 by Trotskyists, radical CDU coalition, with the Green Marxists, and dissidents from Party. The PCP is an orthodox the Portuguese Communist Marxist party which, for the first Party. The BE follows a utopian, time, was surpassed by the radi- revolutionary line, anti-Europe cal Left; it has always followed a and anti-globalisation, similar to line inspired in Soviet Leninism, Podemos and Syriza. Its success and managed to escape the lays in obtaining the vote from fate of Communist parties in the ideological Left, leading it Italy, France, and . Despite away from the "useful vote" for lagging behind the BE (a sym- the PS, which, being pro-Euro- bolic humiliation), it gained one pe, would necessarily follow an MP, from 16 to 17, and obtained identical policy to that of the almost 8,3 % of votes. PSD-CDS coalition. The Consequences: The outcome Figure 2: Number of MPs in 2015 and 2011 has posed serious problems for governability, which will depend both on the winners and on the losers. This is because the PS winner - the PàF coalition - lost 85 (in terms of votes and seats with respect of the 2011 election), and the losers increased the votes PàF PS and seats. The coalition is in a (PSD + CDS) 74 minority with respect to a poten- 104 BE PSD 19 tial coalition of all the other par- 108 ties - PS, BE, and CDU. But this

CDS/PP CDU would be aPPD/PSD negative coalition, as 24 17 the PS's entire tradition is anti- PS PCP/PEV Frente Popular and Communists 16 PAN 1 BE 8 will never beCDS/PP part of a PS gover- 2015 2011 2011 2015 nment. The BE might do so, and the CDU mightPCP/PEV facilitate it in Source: 2015: SIC online / 2011: CNE – Comissão Nacional de Eleições Parliament,BE but this would not Fonte: 2015: SIC online /2011: CNE-Comissão Nacional de Eleições

4 PORTUGUESE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2015: THE SEARCH FOR GOVERNABILITY

only go against tradition in the demanded a Congress. For this PS, but also against the wishes reason, Costa is a hostage to fortu- of most of their voters - and An- ne and to its unknowns. “This scepticism is tónio Costa is not a leader who is fond of breaks with tradition. The radical Left - BE and PCP - also obvious in the have the highest number of MPs abstention rate - at 43%, In any case, after the aggressive- in many legislative terms, with the highest percentage ness displayed during the cam- almost 20 % of the votes, which, ever in a Legislative paign against the coalition, it will added to small Leftists parties, not be easy for the PS to reach amount to almost 25 %. It benefi- Election” a "central block" commitment, ted from the fact that in Greece, supporting the PSD-CDS gover- Tsipras's Left finally followed nment, even if only on a circums- the policy dictated by the Troika, tantial basis. which generated more scepticism regarding the electoral contract in It is only natural for President countries whose European Union Cavaco Silva to encourage Passos and Euro Zone membership and Coelho to form the government, dependence on the cons- but this government will remain train their sovereignty. ultimately dependent on the PS in the future, such as in the voting This scepticism is also obvious of the Budget. Costa decided to in the abstention rate - which, remain the leader, despite the at 43%, the highest percentage relative failure of 4 October, but ever in a Legislative Election, was critics within the PS have already for many the great winner of 4 October. Figure 3: Percentage of abstention in 2015 and 2011 ANDRÉ MACEDO: A COUNTRY TO INVEST IN

Abstenção The best outcome for Portugal would be the election of an absolute majority government, able to approve the next Sta- te budget, thus ensuring the political stability required for 2015 2011 the post-Troika period to finally 43,07% 41,97% become a mere memory - and yet a disgrace not to be forgot- ten - but no longer a constant threat. However, this was not what the Portuguese voted for on the night of 4 October, in one of the most important elections in recent years.

Source: 2015: SIC online / 2011: CNE – Comissão Nacional de Eleições

5 PORTUGUESE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2015: THE SEARCH FOR GOVERNABILITY

Figure 4: Post-election timeline Nonetheless, Passos Coelho and António Costa, more than ever, , the leaders of the must be prudent and exclude centre-right coalition, won the no options, leaving the political election by a wide margin. This leadership of this process to 4 October 2015: outcome would have been un- Passos Coelho and Paulo Portas, Legislative Election thinkable one year ago, per-haps as this was what the Portugue- even more recently. No Euro- se people clearly voted for. On ➡ pean government that had the the night of Sunday 4 October, thankless task of imple-menting the Portuguese Prime Minister the Troika policies - the infa- made the right speech, in the Since 14 October: final esta- mous "men in black" - managed right tone, with the right degree blishment of the election to be re-elected. Hence the huge of openness. He was up to the outcome by the political capacity of the PSD task and perceived what was Comissão Nacional de (Social Democrat Party) and essential: even though he had Eleições the CDS (Centro Democrático e won, he will have to negotiate Social) should be pointed out, as and build bridges as he does ➡ they have been able to win after not have a majority of MPs. He four hard, leaden years, due to started to do this by choosing Portugal's bailout in 2011. the right words to celebrate his From 23 October: CNE deli- victory - with no triumphalism vers the general establish- Even so, the final outcome is and with his feet firmly on the ment minutes to the Natio- insufficient for it to be alone in ground. nal Assembly Parliament. Some kind of party alliance, even a slight and tem- This liberal Government will ➡ porary one, will be required for probably be short-lived - one the government programme to year, perhaps no more, because be approved in the National As- minority governments do not The Government is formed sembly, opening the way to the last long in Portugal. But there and starts working most 2016 Budget - an essential piece if is much to do until then. En- likely between the last week the country is not to be overrun sur-ing the approval of a State of October and the first week once again by the unstoppable Budget capable of complying of November market. with European targets in 2016 and relaunching the economy António Costa, who is still the are the two main goals. If Passos leader of the Socialist Party, does Coelho is able to do these two not completely discard this pos- things, Portugal will continue to sibility - a temporary agreement be an interesting destination for with the Centre-Right - although investors, apart from any-thing he has made it clear that it will else because this election gua- charge for it. If he is too ambi- ranteed that corporate tax will tious, that is, if he believes that he remain on a downward trend, is in a position to demand every- thus joining the most fiscally thing of the next Government, competitive countries in the he will damage the country - by European Union. This is not all, placing it at risk - and subvert the but it is something. Definitely, meaning of yesterday's election: Portugal is not Greece. he lost, Passos and Portas won.

6 PORTUGUESE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2015: THE SEARCH FOR GOVERNABILITY

3. . BIOGRAPHY OF THE in the energy and environmental PRIME MINISTER industries, and also taught and held the presidency of the Vila PEDRO PASSOS COELHO Real Town Hall. Pedro Manuel Ma- In 2008 he founded the Construir mede Passos Coelho Ideias Platform for Strategic is 52 years old. He Reflection for the analysis and was born in discussion of the main topics of on 24 July 1964. He the national political agenda. lived in until In 2010 he was elected President the age of 9, and spent his teena- of the PSD. ge years in , in Northern Portugal. He is married and He took office as Prime Minister has three daughters. He lives in of the 19th Constitutional Gover- Sintra, Greater Lisbon. He holds a nment on 21 June 2011, after the degree in Economics by Universi- early legislative election held on 5 dade Lusíada de Lisboa. He is the June 2011, which were characteri- president of the PSD - the Social sed by the resignation of the then Democrat Party - and since 2011 Prime Minister José Sócrates. has been the Portuguese Prime Minister. 4. OTHER MAIN ACTORS Political Activity Passos Coelho is the president of ANTÓNIO COSTA the centre-right party PSD and a António Luís Santos supporter of the possible future da Costa was born candidate to the presidency of on 17 July 1961. He is the Republic, the Social-Democrat married and has two . children. He lives in Politically active from a young Lisbon. He is the son age, he joined the Social Demo- of the writer Orlando da Costa, of crat Youth - JSD - in 1978 and for Catholic Goan and French origin. five years, between March 1990 He holds a degree in Legal and and December 1995, was the pre- Political Science by the School sident of the JSD and the person of Law at Universidade Clássica who held this leadership for the de Lisboa, and a postgraduate longest period. In 1991 he served degree in European Studies by as Vice-President and Spokesman the Universidade Católica de for the Social Democrat Party - Lisboa. He works as a lawyer, and PSD - in the National Assembly. has been the Secretary General of the Socialist Party - PS - since Between 1997 and 2001 he was a November 2014. Councillor in the Town Hall, and during this period he founded the movement Pensar Portugal. In the last decade, he worked in business management

7 PORTUGUESE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2015: THE SEARCH FOR GOVERNABILITY

Political Activity he served as a Euro MP and Vice-President in the European He was defeated in the 4th Oc- Parliament. tober election, and will be holding a meeting in the Party headquar- With José Sócrates's victory, ters on Tuesday 6th October with António Costa was appointed the MPs elected by the PS, as and of Inter- well as with the national Political nal Administration in 2005 and Committee to analyse the results 2007, when he left this position and their consequences. The PS to stand as a candidate in the Congress will be also discussed. Lisbon City Hall municipal Its date is still pending. election, which he won. This was one of the positions that gave António Costa joined the Socia- him most visibility, and which list Youth - JS - and later became he held from 1 August 2007 to 6 a member of the Socialist Party. April 2015, when he left to stand Between 1982 and 1993, he was a as candidate for the position of member of the Lisbon Municipal Prime Minister. Assembly; in 1991 he was elected PAULO PORTAS a member of Parliament in the 6th Legislative Term, and was Paulo de Sacadura re-elected in the following term. Cabral Portas was Between 1987 and 1990, he was born in Lisbon on 12 also a member of the Secretariat September 1962 and General of the Socialist Party, lives there. He was a and joined that body again in journalist in various 1994. social communication media. He was a founder and the director in He was part of the 13th Constitu- 1998 of the newspaper "O Inde- tional , pendente". He holds a degree in led by António Guterres, first as Law by the Universidade Católi- State Secretary and, from 1997, ca Portuguesa, where he taught as Minister for Parliamentary the History of Political Thought. Affairs. He remained in the fo- He is the current president of llowing Government as Minister the CDS-PP - the People's Party of Justice. He held this position - and the Deputy Prime Minister until 2002. Between 1997 and in the Government of Portugal, 1999, he was in charge of Parlia- though the Centre-Right coali- mentary Affairs while organi- tion 'Portugal À Frente'. sing the Expo 98. He was one of the parties responsible for the Political Activity event's success. Paulo Portas was the president Between 2001 and 2004, he led of the CDS-PP between 1998 and the Socialist Party's Parliamen- 2005 and since 2007 was an MP tary Group. From 2004 to 2005, in the Republic in the 1995, 1999, 2002, 2005, 2009, and 2011 legisla-

8 PORTUGUESE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2015: THE SEARCH FOR GOVERNABILITY

tive terms, as a member of the nments. From 2002 to 2005 he Parliamentary Committees for was a member of the Council of Foreign Affairs and Defence. He State, a member of the High Cou- was the leader of the CDS/PP ncil of Domestic Security, and a Parliamentary Group from 1999 member of the High Council of to 2001. National Defence. Until 24 July 2013, he was the He was elected as Councillor in Minister of State and of Foreign the Lisbon City Hall in 2001 and Affairs in the current Govern- a Euro MP in the 1999 European ment; he was also the Minister of election. He was elected a mem- State and of Defence in the 15th ber of the Arouca Municipal and 16th Constitutional Gover- Assembly in 2009.

9 PORTUGUESE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION 2015: THE SEARCH FOR GOVERNABILITY

Authors Tiago Vidal is Managing Director of LLORENTE & CUENCA in Portugal. He served as Head of Corporate Communications at Sonae Sierra, leading all the B2B communication activities in the 14 countries where the company has a presence. In his 16 years are Sonae Sierra, he was in charge of reputation manage- ment, corporate marketing and PR, stakeholders relations, crisis communications, and media relations, supporting the company's develop- ment, both in business, including IPOs and mergers and acquisitions, and in rebranding matters, including the redefinition of the business structure and positioning. His experience also includes positions as Public Relations Manager at Centro Comercial Colombo, Account Manager at Imago, and resident lecturer in Advanced Public Relations and Crisis Management at the European Retail Property School of the International Council of Shopping Centres. [email protected]

Jaime Nogueira Pinto holds a Ph.D. in Social Science by the Instituto Superior de Ciências Sociais e Políticas at the Universi- dade Técnica, where he taught in the fields of Political Sci-ence and International Relations. He is the Chair of the Fundação Luso-Africana para a Cultu-ra and a member of various inter- national political institutions, such as the Heritage Founda-tion (Washington D), Le Cercle (London, UK), and a corresponding academic at the Real Aca-demia de Ciencias Morales y Políticas (Madrid, Spain). He has published several essential works on contemporary Portuguese and African history. He was a founder of Revista Futuro Presente, the director of the news- paper O Século, and is a regular contributor to various social communication organisations. Professionally, he is a director and shareholder in companies in the field of economic intelli-gence, strategic consulting (Kyon Consultores and Gaporsul), and private security (Moseg/Delta Force in Mozambique). [email protected]

André Macedo has been the director of Diário de Notícias since August 2014, after serving as the head of the financial area at the Controlinveste Media group, currently the Global Media Group. He is also a regular commentator at RTP. Previously, André Macedo was the executive director of the newspaper i, part of whose founding team he was. In addition, he also worked as part of management at Diário Económico, in Sábado magazine as editor-in- chief, in Correio da Manhã as editor of the politics section, in Focus magazine as finance editor, and in the sports newspaper Record. In the Global Media Group, André Macedo was the founder and head of the Dinheiro Vivo project. He holds a degree in Law by Lisbon University. [email protected]

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