SMITHSON PLANNING 364 Middleton Road Albany WA 6330 www.smithsonplanning.com.au PO Box 5377 Albany WA 6332 [email protected] ΣΠ Tel : (08) 9842 9841 Fax : (08) 9842 9843 Mob : 0428 556 444 Peak Oil, Gas and Nuclear Power The Rainbow 2000© Project is a doctoral research & corporate investment program analysing the relationship between planning and politics in Economic Development in Australia, and more particularly a case study of Albany & the Great Southern Region of Western Australia – thesis : Is planning the antithesis of politics? As good as the Australian Planner (2006 Vol.43 #4) : Energy Planning special edition was : www.planning.org.au Don’t wait for oil drought – hope for best and prepare for worst : “Peak Oil is when the rate of global oil production changes from its increasing trend to the unavoidable downtrend as the world’s oil fields start their overall decline phase. We will not run out of oil, but there will be less available each year in future. Many of the world’s major oil regions are already in decline. The North Sea, Alaska, Kuwait’s Burgan and Mexico’s Cantarell supergiant fields are in clear decline. Australia’s Bass Strait reached peak production in 1985, and has been declining since.” “Australia’s oil production has been declining since 2000, and it is forecast to continue to decline quite quickly. New oil fields coming on-stream around the world are offsetting the declining old fields; but as the decline rates accelerate and new fields become smaller and scarcer, there will soon come the tipping point when overall global oil production will start to decline. It is not possible to forecast exactly when Peak Oil will occur. Much of the world’s oil data are state secrets and published oil reserve figures are as much spin as substance.” “Many authoritative estimates suggest Peak Oil will arrive some time around 2010-2012. Of course, the concerned scientists may be proved wrong, and the business-as-usual economists may be right. But like climate change, we should hope for the best, but plan for the worst. Planning and Infrastructure Minister Alannah MacTiernan wisely said in 2005 : ‘The cost of preparing too early (for Peak Oil) is nowhere near the cost of not being ready in time.’ But it is very hard for governments to take the lead on Peak Oil until the community is well informed about the probabilities, risks and opportunities.” “We recommend a four-fold approach. Highest priority must be community awareness and engagement so people understand the problems and accept that serious precautions and countermeasures are needed. Second is frugality. We cannot afford to be as profligate with fuel and travel as we are now. Third is efficiency. There are lots of ways of doing things better or just as well with less fuel. Lowest priority should be alternative fuels. This is because it is not physically possible to grow enough biofuels nor to make enough coal into oil, for instance, soon enough and without enormous environmental damage.” Bruce Robinson, Australian Association for Study of Peak Oil & Gas Extract : West Australian (Page 19), 9 Feb 2007 2010-12 is now the five year planning horizon, and whether we choose to believe or not, Robinson provides a clear statement of the nature of the problem confronting Australia. The Nuclear Energy debate boils down to eight questions : 1. Do you believe that fossils fuels, particularly Oil & Gas, are a finite resource? – Yes. 2. Do you believe in the concept of Peak Oil & Gas production? – Yes. 3. When do you estimate that Peak Oil & Gas will occur? 2010-12? How reliable is this data? What is potential variation in that date : next decade? 4. How well is Australia positioned to negotiate over price and supply of petroleum products for various energy applications? – in particular transport and electricity generation. 5. How vulnerable are Australia’s urban, rural and remote settlements and industries to restriction of energy supply – Highly vulnerable. 6. What are the plausible energy solutions for the ‘Electric City’? Base plants : Nuclear Power is only solution for population thresholds 500,000 plus unless Hydro-electric or Geo-Thermal available. 7. Which two countries have 51% of the known global deposits of Uranium Ore? – Australia & Canada. 8. What is Australia’s domestic and international policy position on the supply of Uranium Ore to world market? – and how do we manage that future relationship? www.smithsonplanning.com.au Written & Authorised by Neil Smithson of 364 Middleton Road, Albany, Western Australia 6330 Smithson Planning – Consultants in National Investment Growth Pathing PO Box 5377 Albany WA 6332 Tel : (08) 9842 9841 Fax : (08) 9842 9843 Mob : 0428 556 444 15.12.2011 Rainbow 2000© Project – Peak Oil, Gas & Nuclear Power Page 2 of 85 Peak Oil and Planning for Urban, Rural & Remote Australia I appreciate Neil Smithson circulating my opinion piece on Peak Oil published in the West Australian last week. I am very happy to allow it to be considered as part of his letter to the Editor or to be reprinted elsewhere. Last week also saw the release of the report of the Senate Inquiry into Australia's Future Oil Supplies (which did not receive much publicity in part due to a lot of coverage about Climate Change, carbon trading etc). Links are available on the ASPO-Australia website, www.ASPO-Australia.org.au. The report is an important step towards Peak Oil being recognised as a major problem facing Australia in the near future. Peak Oil and Climate Change are the twin challenges, or "intersecting challenges" facing us. "Petrol droughts" may well have a bigger impact soon on ordinary Australians than the longer term and more serious environmental problems of climate change. However, it is also probably true that we have more control over the mitigation and adaptation strategies for Peak Oil than for Climate Change. The planning profession and individuals can prepare by evaluating and reducing oil vulnerability at individual, community and organisational levels. TravelSmart individualised marketing, as one example, has reduced existing car-kms by some 13% in the programmes in Perth and in suburbs of Melbourne and Brisbane, as well as overseas. The role of planning in reducing the need for car-travel is very well known, but these strategies have not been seen as high priorities in many areas. The outer fringes of Australian cities have very high oil vulnerability, as outlined by Griffith University researchers, Dodson and Sipe ( http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/content/view/120/1/ ). Dodson and Sipe mapped vulnerability to fuel prices rises, and to the mortgage interest rate rises which are likely to follow future oil shocks, as they did in the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks. Regional centres are to be included in future work. High levels of car-dependence, long trip distances, poor public transport, and often low economic resources combine to focus the oil vulnerability of our cities on many of the outer suburbs. Those with long established houses (and lower mortgages), and those areas close to railways and existing shops are much better off. ASPO-Australia has been attempting to encourage local authorities and other organisations to undertake oil vulnerability assessment and risk management studies, as a first step towards local mitigation and adaptation strategies. We have active working groups in most state capitals and in Gippsland and many people available who can present seminars or briefings on Peak Oil and its implications. We also have a number of working groups in different sectors including Finance Sector, Health, Social Services, Active Transport and Urban Transport and Planning. The latter is headed by Dave Kilsby in Sydney. The submissions to the Senate Inquiry from our various working groups are listed on the front page of our website. We are keen to establish working groups in other areas, for instance a Local Government working group, and Regional Planning working groups. As a nationwide network of professionals we rely on interested people volunteering ideas, assistance and commitment. So far, we have been very heartened by the number and quality of professionals taking an interest in Peak Oil. Please feel free to contact me and ASPO-Australia for more information, or with suggestions about what should be done to communicate the risks and opportunities of Peak Oil to professionals and the community. Regards, Bruce Robinson Convenor, ASPO-Australia Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas www.ASPO-Australia.org.au [email protected] Sustainable Transport Coalition 2 Barsden St, Cottesloe WA 6011 Western Australia Tel : +61 8 9384 7409 Mobile : +61 427 398 708 www.STCwa.org.au www.smithsonplanning.com.au Smithson Planning – Organisational Management, Media, Town Planning & Environmental Assessment PO Box 5377 Albany WA 6332 Tel : (08) 9842 9841 Fax : (08) 9842 9843 Mob : 0428 556 444 15.12.2011 Rainbow 2000© Project – Peak Oil, Gas & Nuclear Power Page 3 of 85 Clean not so green – Myths about the Greenhouse Debate Extract : Sunday Times Newspaper (Page 89), 9 September 2007 The term ‘clean coal’ has about as much credibility as the term ‘safe cigarettes’, according to research group The Australia Institute. A study released this week by the independent think-tank turns the spotlight on projects such as BP and Rio Tinto’s planned $2 billion Kwinana clean-coal power station. The proposed Kwinana power station would gasify coal to produce hydrogen and carbon dioxide, with the hydrogen used to fuel the power station and about 90% of the carbon dioxide to be captured and stored under the sea off the Perth coast, through the process called geo-sequestration. George Wilkenden, principal author of the Australia Institute study Clean Coal and Other Greenhouse Myths, said most of the environmental good news was being attached to most clean-coal projects and was little more the myths, folklores and lies.