TAJIKISTAN’S PREDICTABLE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS AND THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION LATER THIS YEAR

Bruce Pannier

EUCACIS in Brief

No. 13 April 2020

PhD Support Programme The EU, Central Asia and the Caucasus in the International System About EUCACIS “The EU, Central Asia and the Caucasus in the International System” (EUCACIS) is a PhD Support Programme for Postgraduates and Doctoral Researchers in Central Asia and the Southern Caucasus, organized by the Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP) and the Centre international de formation européenne (CIFE). Funded by the Volkswagen Foundation and the programme Erasmus+, it offers scholarships for three years to excellent postgraduates who are working on a doctoral thesis in political science, contemporary history or economics on a topic related to its thematic focus at a university or academy of sciences in the Southern Caucasus or Central Asia (including Afghanistan, the Kashmir region in India and the autonomous region Xinjiang in China). It is the objective of the EUCACIS programme to provide EUCACIS.eu intensive PhD research training for its participants to bring them closer to international standards, to support them until they submit their doctoral theses, and to help them establish their own networks with other young researchers in the target regions and in Europe. This will be achieved through four international conferences, four PhD schools, two research training stays and continuous online coaching.

About IEP Since 1959, the Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP) has been active in the field of European integration as a non-profit organisation. It is one of Germany’s leading research institutes on foreign and European policy. IEP works at the interface of academia, politics, administration, and civic education. In doing so, IEP’s task include scientific analyses of problems surrounding European politics and integration. www.iep-berlin.de

About CIFE The Centre international de formation européenne (CIFE) is a private institution of higher education and research, founded in 1954 with its head office in Nice and branch offices in Berlin, Brussels and Istanbul. It receives special funding in the framework of the Jean Monnet Programme of the European Union. Students from all continents enroll in its programmes and work as senior officials, consultants and academic experts after graduation. www.cife.eu

About the Series EUCACIS Online Paper comprise research and policy papers on topics related to the thematic focus of the programme, written by fellows of the EUCACIS PhD Support Programme and members of the wider EUCACIS network. It aims at making the debates within the network, notably during the EUCACIS conferences and PhD schools, accessible to a wider public. The papers are available on the programme website: www.eucacis.eu About the Author Bruce Pannier is a Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty correspondent reporting on events and energy issues in Central Asia. Prior to joining RFE/RL in 1997, Pannier worked at the Open Media Research Institute in Prague. In 1992 and 1993, he led a sociological project in Central Asia sponsored by the University of Manchester and the Soros Cultural Initiative Foundation, during which he lived in villages in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. He holds degrees from Columbia University, New York and attended Tashkent State University, Uzbekistan in 1990.

Editorial team

Publishers: Prof. Dr Mathias Jopp, Head of International Programmes, IEP PD Dr Matthias Waechter, Director General, CIFE

Editors: Dr Susann Heinecke, Programme Manager EUCACIS, CIFE Salome Minesashvili, Project Assistant, CIFE Laila Allemand, Project Manager/Research Associate, IEP

Layout: Dimitar Keranov, IEP

Place of publication: Berlin

ISSN: 2627-7190

Internet: www.eucacis.eu

Email: [email protected]

Hashtag: #EUCACIS

published in April 2020 4 EUCACIS Policy Brief No. 13 - Tajikistan’s predictable parliamentary elections and the presidential election later this year 2020 (https://mts.tj/ru/1559/news/). Assembly of Tajikistan), Khovar agency, news 2March deputies of Majlisi the Namoyandagon of Supreme the announced preliminary the results of elections for CommissionCentral for elections and referenda Республики Таджикистан намояндагонМаджлиси Оли Маджлиси предварительные депутатов результаты выборов объявила иреферендумам по выборам 1 President Emomali As waswidelyforecast, seat. five- a with percent threshold to receiveaparliamentary votes total from percentage on based remaining 22frompartylists,thelatter, elected fromsingle-mandate districts,and the the lowerhouse,has63seats,41ofwhich are the remainingeight. The MajlisiNamoyandagon, (administrations) with the president selecting are chosenlocalbydeputies of localMajlisi the upper house of parliament,the Senate, 25 Majlisi Namoyandagon. Of the 33 deputies to only for the lower house of parliament, the Popular elections for Tajikistan are conducted fifth a term. for run Rahmon President will being: next presidentialelectionwiththeonly question November this year when Tajikistan holds its an indication of what can be expected in credibility. The parliamentary elections were for voterparticipation of 86.4 percent among the electorate and official turnout figure presidential. The campaign drew little interest parties contesting in the elections were pro- with a chance to win seats. Six of seven which left only pro-presidential parties banned after the 2015 parliamentary elections Renaissance PartyofTajikistan(IRPT),was as the leading opposition party, theIslamic perhaps thecountry’smostdisappointing, since 1991 independence. This election was elections parliamentary fifth its held Tajikistan On March 1, 2020, the Central Asian country of ВЫБОРЫ-2020. Центральная комиссия Центральная ВЫБОРЫ-2020. ( Elections -2020. 1

stretched The The also received seats in the 2015 elections. The in the2020 All thepartiesthatreceivedseats PDPT inallthepresidentialelectionssince2000. 2015. Rahmon has been the candidate from the 2010 elections, and 51 in the lastelectionsin went on towin 49 seats in 2005, 55 seats in the elections whenthePDPTtook36seats,then the lower houseof parliament since the 2000 PDPT hasconsistentlywon the mostseatsin Peoples Democratic Party of Tajikistan. The became the leader of the, slightly, renamed of Tajikistan.In April 1998, PresidentRahmon 1994 and was called simply the Peoples Party Tajikistan. ThePDPTwasformedinDecember of the next biggest party,the Agrarian Partyof more than 10 timesthe number of members claims some500,000 registered members, taking some 50.4 percent ofthevote.ThePDPT of Tajikistan(PDPT)wonthemostseats,47, Rahmon’s ruling People’s Democratic Party The IRPThadalwayswon two seatsinparliament in favourofRahmonsupporters. that followed the percentage gradually tipped the top levelsof government and in the years government. Itdid not reachthatpercentage at given 30 percentoftheplacesin alllevelsof the government. The opposition were to be for the wartime opponents to sharepowerin the rivalssignedonJune27,1997 provided the 1992-1997 Tajik civilwar.Thepeaceaccord groups that fought the Tajik government during The IRPTwaspartofacoalitionopposition the second largest political party in Tajikistan. did not take part in since 2000. The IRPT was IPRT the first the were elections parliamentary Renaissance Partyof Tajikistan (IRPT).The2020 Notable was the absence of the Islamic each wononeseat,astheydidin2015. and the Socialist Partyand the Democratic Party two seatsin 2020 as itdid in 2015 and 2010, 2015, the CommunistPartyofTajikistan took in three and elections recent these in seats five won Reform Economic of Party the 2015, in five Agrarian Party won seven seats in 2020 and EUCACIS Policy Brief No. 13 - Tajikistan’s predictable parliamentary elections and the presidential election later this year 5 277 6 and 177 to 177 and 7 It was a sharp 5 “Parliamentary Elections, 28 February 2010”, Elections, 2010”, 28 February “Parliamentary “Parliamentary Elections, 1 March 2020”, 2020”, Elections, 1 March “Parliamentary election observation opens “OSCE/ODIHR OSCE website, 20 January 2015, (https://www.osce.org/ 20 January OSCE website, odihr/elections/tajikistan/135281). 7 (https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/ OSCE website, tajikistan/eoms/parliamentary_2010). day.” In such a situation, the OSCE’s Office for Rights Human and Democratic Institutions Assessment Election an deploy to chose (ODIHR) “seven international (EAM) of only Mission staff, drawn from OSCE participating states…” polling of small number a visit only would that systematic or “carry out not would and stations counting comprehensive observation of voting, and tabulation on election day.” reduction in terms of personnel and duties elections parliamentary compared to previous observers to 180 sent Tajikistan. ODHIR in 2015, Tajikistan’s parliamentary elections in 2010, in elections observers to the 5 (https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/ OSCE website, tajikistan/443986). 6 in Tajikistan”, elections parliamentary for mission Democratic Democratic by SDPT, led Party of Tajikistan opposition a genuine Zoirov, is Rahmatullo 2020 1, March the in participate did it and party some 10,000 only But the party has elections. subsequently request, Zoirov’s members and to Commission for the Central Elections denied, (not somoni 5,800 fee of registration lower the low how indicated candidate per $600) US quite the party’s finances are. In the end,a mere received and SDPT the candidates five only fielded vote. 0.3 percent of the In such a Rights Human and Democratic Institutions situation, the OSCE’s Assessment Election an deploy to chose (ODIHR) Office for staff, international “seven only of (EAM) Mission that states…” participating OSCE from drawn or comprehensive systematic “carry out not did tabulation and counting voting, of observation on election day”. Mission members did “visit stations on election of polling a small number

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4 Farangis 3 , Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 8 Liberty, Europe/Radio , Radio Free “UN expert deplores harsh sentencing sentencing harsh expert“UN deplores “Shuttered Tajik Islamic Party Branded As As Branded Party Islamic Tajik “Shuttered “Death Of A Fugitive: Abduhalim Nazarzoda, Nazarzoda, Abduhalim Of A Fugitive: “Death one of the few opposition voices in the country, the country, voices in one of the few opposition for public seriously compromising the prospects life.” participation in Tajikistan’s political Special Rapporteur David Kaye said after the Kaye said Rapporteur David Special “The convictions of the IRPT leaders, June 2, 2016 leaders of multiple opposition harsh sentencing reflects the steady increase restrictions of on and “The freedom of expression in Tajikistan,” year silenced crackdown on IRPT over the last Thirteen IRPT leaders still in the country were Thirteen IRPT leaders still in the terms prison long given convicted, and detained, and Muhammad (party heads Saidumar Husaini UN prison). in life to sentenced were Hayit though there was no compelling evidence to evidence compelling was no there though 2015, September of end the By a link. suggest Ministry declared the IRPT Tajikistan’s Justice to be a terrorist its organization and banned activities. The government tied the attempted to the IRPT, The government ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews. aspx?NewsID=20064&LangID=E). September 2015, (https://www.rferl.org/a/tajikistan- September islamic-party-terrorist-organization/27277385.html). 4 of warns leaders and opposition Tajikistan of Office Rights Human Nations United radicalization”, 2016, (https://www. 7 June the Commissioner, of Tajik General Blamed For Recent Violence”, Violence”, Recent For General Blamed Tajik Najibullah 2015 (https://www.rferl.org/a/tajikistan- September general-nazarzoda-deadly-attacks/27233955.html). 3 29 Liberty, Europe/Radio Radio Free Group”, Terrorist parliamentary removed the key group in group key parliamentary removed the offering alternative policies no be there would ensured and government to those of the Social The campaigning. controversies during 2 The absence of the IRPT in these latest latest these IRPT in the of The absence to win any seats. The IRPT’s registration was IRPT’s registration any seats. The to win Tajik just before a on August 28, 2015, revoked tried to stage minister allegedly defence deputy put was quickly which September 4, on a coup killed. plotters alleged the most of with down since the 2000 elections, but in the March 1, in the March 1, elections, but 2000 since the failed party the elections parliamentary 2015 6 EUCACIS Policy Brief No. 13 - Tajikistan’s predictable parliamentary elections and the presidential election later this year sidelined-as-tajikistan-votes-in-parliamentary-polls/ www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/opposition- parliamentary polls”, AFP, 29February 2020,( “Opposition sidelined as Tajikistan votes in com/206bd7ca0449049bfa1a6f0399aec6e1 Associated Press, 1March 2020,( president’s to loyalists dominate expected vote”, strongman-leader-idUSKBN20O1DB election/tajikistan-set-to-elect-parliament-loyal-to- ( to strongman leader”, Reuters, 1 March 2020, 9 odihr/elections/tajikistan/eoms/parliamentary_2005). 13 March 2005”, OSCEwebsite, (https://www.osce.org/ 8 elections seemtobefaitaccompli. in Western media noted the results of the candidates competing, and many reports people did not know most orevenanyofthe Reports before the elections indicated many organizing rallies. printing campaign posters and brochures, and of thecosts to cover insufficient are state the the leader of the PDPT, and funds provided by coverage totheactivitiesofPresidentRahmon, much especially as statemediadevotes so much However, twentyminutesofairtimeisnot are prohibited fromusing foreign funding. (some US$6,000). Candidates andparties US $3,000) and partiesby up to 58,000 somoni their funding by up to 29,000 somoni (some their case to voters. Candidates can augment of freetimeon television and radiotomake 40 minutes and each candidate 20 minutes private funding is allowed. Each party is given (about US $515) for campaigning purposes. No $5,150) and eachcandidatewith 5,000 somoni each partywith 50,000 somoni (about US Tajikistan’s electoralrules,thestateprovides and candidates toadvertisethemselves.Under there was also limited opportunity for parties only wastherelittledoubt about theoutcome, the interestofmostvotersinTajikistan.Not The elections also seemingly failed to capture voting andvotecounting. the elections in 2005 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tajikistan- “Tajikistan parliament to elect set loyal “Parliamentary 27February and Elections, 8 to monitor campaigning, https://apnews. ), “Tajikistan 9 Giventhat, ), http:// are working in Russiaillegallyandlikelywould closest Tajikconsulate in Novosibirsk. Some East thatarethousands of kilometresfromthe Sakhalin Island and other areasin Russia’s Far Russia, working, for example, in Vladivostok, migrant labourersarespread throughout Novosibirsk, St.Petersburg,and Ufa, but Tajik in MoscoworconsulatesYekaterinburg, citizens couldvoteinRussia;attheembassy Tajik where places five were There Russia. in are migrantlabourers,atleast800,000 of them citizens, or some20 percent of eligible voters, More than one million mainly working age Tajik Tajikistan whereTajikcitizenscouldvote. There were39 locations in 30 countries outside percent registeredvoters,castballots. 2 that 4,245,951 of 4,929,120 citizens, or 86.1 Bakhtiyor Khudoyorzoda, announced on March Commission forElectionsandReferenda, it seemsstrangethattheheadofCentral 2020 ( Assembly of Tajikistan), Khovar agency, news 2March deputies of Majlisi the Namoyandagon of Supreme the announced preliminary the results of elections for CommissionCentral for elections and referenda Республики Таджикистан намояндагонМаджлиси Оли Маджлиси предварительные депутатов результаты выборов объявила иреферендумам по выборам 10 happening eurasianet.org/tajikistans-election-mystery-why-is-it- it happening?”, Eurasianet, 28February 2020,( article/567979 times, orasingle individual depositing evidence that showed people voting multiple There werereportsandevensomevideo in othercountrieswouldhavecastballots. even tenpercentofeligible Tajik votersworking opportunity for earlyvoting, there islittlechance leave worksitestogocastballots.Evenwiththe convince their local employers to allow them to to difficult it find would some And consulates. not daretomakeatriptheembassyor

https://mts.tj/ru/1559/news/ ВЫБОРЫ-2020. Центральная комиссия Центральная ВЫБОРЫ-2020. ). ), “Tajikistan’s Why mystery: election is ( Elections ). -2020. The The 10 https:// EUCACIS Policy Brief No. 13 - Tajikistan’s predictable parliamentary elections and the presidential election later this year 7 (Statement of the Mission of Observers of the Mission of (Statement from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation on the on Organisation Cooperation the Shanghai from to elections of conduct and the preparation of results Shanghai Tajikistan), of the Republic of Oli the Majlisi 2020, 3 March website, Organisation Cooperation (http://rus.sectsco.org/news/20200303/634600.html). to leadership was supported by commanders by was supported to leadership of Popular Front units, paramilitary groups that to the were often lawless and as dangerous the in enemies their to were they as population influence great exert to continued They war. civil war and the throughout policies Rahmon’s on ministerial posts. key in at times force changes among were commanders Front Popular These the first to be purged in the years after the civil IRPT was banned war. For a decade before the many of its declared an extremist group, and leaders were harassed and some beaten. With faces no gone, Rahmon now groups these all family has His internal challenges. organised increasingly gained influence in politicshis daughter Ozoda, 42, now serving as head of with son oldest his and apparatus presidential the the mayor of the currently Rustam Emomali, 32, выборов Республики в Маджлиси Оли Таджикистан As low key as Tajikistan’s parliamentary elections elections as Tajikistan’s parliamentary key As low belief the reinforce did they been, have might in November will be no surprises that there its presidential country holds when the 2020 Nursultan President Kazakhstan’s After election. Nazarbayev officially stepped down his from many feel (though 2019 19, post on March Emomali Rahmon country), the leads still he in the serving president became the longest in serving leaders longest and one of the CIS Rahmon was elected chairman the world today. secret ballot a Soviet in Supreme Tajikistan’s of later week one barely and 1992 November in making was abolished, president of post the the Russian version still using Rahmon (then in though Rahmonov) the leader of Tajikistan, for underway name only. The civil war had been government had that time and the a half year by the in areas,particularly many over control lost ascension eastern part of the country. Rahmon’s

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). The March 3 statement 12 http://www.cis.minsk.by/ Миссии наблюдателей от Миссии наблюдателей 13 Заявление Миссии наблюдателей от Миссии наблюдателей Заявление “Tajikistan: Fraud-ridden election hands election hands Fraud-ridden “Tajikistan: ЗАЯВЛЕНИЕ

Шанхайской организацииШанхайской сотрудничества итогам по и проведения подготовки за ходом наблюдения website, 11 March 2020, ( 11 March website, news/13289/zajavlenie_missii_nabljudatelej_ot_ sng_po_rezultatam_nabljudenija_za_podgotovkoj_i_ provedeniem_vyborov_v_madzhlisi_namojandagon_ madzhlisi_oli_respubliki_tadzhikistan 13 проведением выборов в Маджлисипроведением намояндагон (Declaration Таджикистан Республики Маджлиси Оли of observers the Commonwealth of of the Mission of observation of of the results on States Independent the Majlisi to elections of conduct and preparation Executive Tajikistan), of the Republic of Namoyandagon States Independent of Commonwealth Committee crushing win to ruling party”, Eurasianet, 2 March 2020, 2020, 2 March Eurasianet, ruling win to party”, crushing (https://eurasianet.org/tajikistan-fraud-ridden-election- hands-crushing-win-to-ruling-party). 12 по Содружества Независимых Государств и за подготовкой результатам наблюдения or during campaigning. or during CIS the of assessment mirrored that SCO from the monitors. 11 mission reported the elections were conducted were elections the reported mission and constitution Tajikistan’s with accordance in violations there were no electoral laws, that the Commission, in the work of the Central Elections candidates, registration of and nominations the regularly monitor elections in member states in elections monitor regularly all met having as polls these assess typically and and the necessary standards for transparency were elections fairness. Tajikistan’s March 1, 2020 CIS from the statement 11 March A exception. no parliamentary elections before the end of April. of before the end parliamentary elections observers, 158 international remainingthe Of Commonwealth of Independent were from the Shanghai were from the 15 and States (CIS) CIS and SCO Cooperation Organisation (SCO). observer missions, of such violations during all during violations such missions, of observer 230 More than elections. previous Tajikistan’s of monitor Tajikistan’s did observers international deploying despite ODIHR, parliamentary elections. said (EAM), Mission an Election Assessment only it would release a final report on Tajikistan’s ballots for an entire family on election day. election on family entire an for ballots from OSCE notably been reports, There have 8 EUCACIS Policy Brief No. 13 - Tajikistan’s predictable parliamentary elections and the presidential election later this year Karimov, diedinofficeatage782016. years old and Uzbekistan’s first president, Islam 79 almost was he when office left Nazarbayev possibilities. However,Kazakhstan’sNursultan and Rustam Emomali have been mentioned as installing his choice as successor.Both Ozoda Rahmon isconsidering stepping down and of age (which he will turn on October 5, 2020), that after 28 years in power and at 68 years inpower presidential election as he wishes. Thereistalk is firmly and capableoforchestrating the upcoming Rahmon confirmation The recentparliamentary elections were business world. relatives by marriage, now dominate Tajikistan’s Tajik capital Dushanbe. His family, mostly the