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Top 10 Real INSIGHTS 2020 Land & Development Conference Top 10 Real INSIGHTS 2020 Land & Development Conference Powered by ISSUE 46 AltusGroup ISSUE 2020 Land & Development Conference TOP 10 REAL INSIGHTS 46 1 2 3 INSIGHTS FROM THIS IS A FROZEN ECONOMY, SHOPPING BEHAVIOURS OFFICE DESIGN WILL TREND INDUSTRY LEADERS SOMETHING THAT HAS DRASTICALLY ALTERED TOWARDS DE-DENSIFICATION DURING THE CONTENT NOT BEEN SEEN BEFORE – FORMATION OF BENJAMIN TAL E-commerce surges along with The virus will cast a long shadow on the necessity-based retailers. way work gets done in the future. LAND & DEVELOPMENT Three million jobs were lost in March CONFERENCE and April while 8.21 M separate applicants have applied for the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit as of May 18th. 7 6 5 4 WATERSHED MOMENT CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRIAL VACANCY PANDEMIC CHALLENGING FOR PROPTECH COSTS RISE AND HOVERS AT ALL-TIME LOWS SPAAS BUSINESS MODELS PRODUCTIVITY FALLS Adoption of Proptech Increased demand for warehousing While the virus spurs demand for solutions has surged during There is no doubt now that space to accommodate surges in co-warehousing, co-working and this time of social distancing. COVID-19 will have a great e-commerce as stay-in-place orders co-living, demand declines and impact on construction costs. continue. co-retailing not an option as non- Add in physical distancing essential retail remains closed. and productivity will plummet according to Altus Group. 8 9 10 RENTERS MAY GET DEMAND FOR AFFORDABLE SUPER for further details RELIEF FROM NEAR HOUSING LIKELY TO DEVELOPMENTS on these top trends ZERO APARTMENT SKYROCKET POST IN THE PIPELINES please visit the real VACANCY LEVELS PANDEMIC ACROSS CANADA estate forums portal at realestateforums.com Lower immigration numbers COVID-19 is highlighting the urgent Transit a key component and job losses coupled with need for affordable housing. Cities of each of these mega- record condo and apartment across Canada are moving quickly to developments that will deliver completions will likely nudge create affordable housing options. millions of square feet to the vacancy rates higher. market over the next decade. Powered by To access the Real Estate Forum portal, please visit: www.realestateforums.com AltusGroup We welcome feedback. Please email: [email protected] REAL Powered by 2020 Land & Development HIGHLIGHT DETAILS INSIGHTS Conference 1. THIS IS A FROZEN ECONOMY, SOMETHING THAT HAS NOT Energy demand worldwide could drop by 6% in 2020, the BEEN SEEN BEFORE – BENJAMIN TAL International Energy Agency said in an annual review released in April. “We see a staggering decline across all the fuels: oil, gas, Three million jobs were lost in March and April while 8.21 M coal, electricity, except for renewables,” Fatih Birol, IEA Executive separate applicants have applied for the Canadian Emergency Director, told the Financial Times. Response Benefit as of May 18th. During a May 5 webinar hosted by Canadian Real Estate The Canadian economy lost almost two million jobs in April, Forums, Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC, stated causing the unemployment rate to rise to 13.0%, Statistics Canada the economy has essentially been ‘frozen’ and that recovery, reports. In all, more than one-third of the labour force didn’t work or when it occurs, will not be “v-shaped” and it will be long. The first had reduced hours in April. Since March, the economy has lost a step will be a ‘zig-zag’ economy that will introduce volatility to total of three million jobs. valuations, expectations and GDP growth and therefore, consumer confidence. After we reach the endpoint, he said, which is a The U.S. unemployment rate hit 14.7% in April, as 20.5 million jobs vaccine or effective treatment, we will graduate into a recessionary vanished in the worst monthly loss on record. recovery. He predicted that the government would continue with monthly support cheques, which will generate the infrastructure for An updated report on federal finances by the Parliamentary Budget more permanent universal assistance. Office estimates that the 2021 deficit is expected to reach $250 B or roughly 12.7% of Canadian GDP. It could likely go higher if “Overall, due to the lasting damage of the disruption, we think GDP emergency measures remain in place longer than planned. will remain below its late-2019 level until early 2022. We do not see GDP returning to its pre-2020 trend path within the next few In its April Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Canada years,” said Stephen Brown, Senior Canada Economist at Capital emphasized that its actions to date have been oriented towards Economics. supporting the smooth functioning of financial and credit markets. 2. SHOPPING BEHAVIOURS DRASTICALLY ALTERED The Bank of Canada is buying up to $10 B of corporate bonds and $50 B of provincial bonds as part of its newly launched quantitative E-commerce surges along with necessity-based retailers. easing program – alongside hundreds of billions of dollars in government spending to support business and households. As Canadians drastically alter their shopping behaviours to minimize contact with others in response to COVID-19, they’re On May 8, the Federal government extended the 75% emergency turning to online retailers to buy what they need, KPMG reports. wage subsidy program beyond June in order to encourage employers to re-hire staff and ‘help kick-start’ the economy. However, even prior to COVID-19, the Conference Board of Originally it was a 12- week program retroactive to March 15. Canada reports that online sales were experiencing double-digit growth while sales at brick-and-mortar stores were at a standstill. A preliminary estimate by Statistics Canada suggests that the economy contracted by 9% in March - the largest monthly Simeon Siegel, Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets, said decrease observed since 1961, and declined by 2.6% in real GDP in an interview, “It would seem that the coronavirus is accelerating for the first quarter of 2020. The economic forecast by CIBC in the structural changes we’ve been seeing across retail and April shows that the economy could contract as much as 40.5% in society for the last decade — toward online interaction, toward the second quarter, and Canada’s GDP could contract 6.9% this e-commerce and away from brick and mortar, toward direct-to- year, before rebounding 6.8% in 2021. consumer away from department store.” Economy GDP GDP Indeed, almost 3 in 10 people are shopping for things online that they normally would have bought in-store, according to a survey of more than 30,000 Canadians by Chicago-based market research 9% 2.6% 40.5% firm Numerator. Consumer spending on Amazon is up 35% from the same period March First quarter Second quarter last year, according to estimates from the retail analysis firm, the largest monthly decrease 2020 2020 Facteus. Amazon has announced mid-April that it would hire an observed since 1961 additional 75,000 workers on top of the 100,000 new positions it GDP created in March to help fulfill orders. Grocery store sales have surged at the expense of restaurants. 6.9% 6.8% A rising number of restaurants are responding by developing websites that allow them to sell grocery items. “Grocerants” are becoming far more common. 2020 2021 Informa Canada has not made any independent investigation, verification or audit of any of the information contained in this document. Neither Informa Canada nor any third parties make any representations or warranties, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, timeliness, completeness or suitability of the information contained in this document. Your use of such information is entirely at your own risk, for which neither Informa Canada nor any third party is liable. REAL Powered by 2020 Land & Development HIGHLIGHT DETAILS INSIGHTS Conference Restaurants Canada reported in April that two-thirds of the 1.2 3. OFFICE DESIGN WILL TREND TOWARDS DE-DENSIFICATION million workers in the sector had lost their jobs. The organization representing the $93 B industry said that as of April 2, almost 10% of The virus will cast a long shadow on the way work gets done restaurants had already closed permanently, and another 18% would in the future. permanently close within a month if current conditions continue. Once people are allowed to return to work, office space will require In the U.S., more than 250,000 stores closed during the shelter at a redesign to comply with health authority recommendations and home order, according to GlobalData Retail. Some analysts predict for people to feel safe working there. 15,000 retail stores will close permanently this year, which would mark a 60% increase from last year’s record closures. That could mean a reversal of the open office trend. The most resilient companies include blue-chip retailers like In the U.S., Cushman & Wakefield states that the square footage Walmart, Costco and Home Depot, all of whose stock prices are per employee has decreased from 211.4 sq. ft. in 2009 to at or near record highs. Meanwhile, most small retailers—like 193.8 sq . ft. at the end of 2017—a decline of 17.6 sq. ft. or 8.3%. hair salons, cafés, flower shops, and gyms—have less than one “I do think this is going to reshape the workplace,” Janet Pogue- month’s cash on hand. One survey of several thousand small McLaurin, Principal and Workplace Leader at the design and businesses, including hotels, theatres, and bars, found that only architecture firm Gensler said. “Social distance thinking may be 30% of them expect to survive a lockdown that lasts four months. part of our DNA moving forward.” Big companies have several advantages over smaller independents “Every configuration of every floor plan should be assessed to look in a crisis.
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