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Index

8888 Uprising 278, 280, 284 al-Bashir, Omar 186, 187, 190 9/11 attack, regime change Al-e-Ahmed, Jalal 121 after 301–3 Al Mahdi, Sadiq 186 al-Quaida 299, 300 Abdallah, Ould 55 al-Turabi, Hasan 186, 187 ABMA seeAll Burma ’Alliance Albright, Madeleine 298 (ABMA) Algerian Liberation Front 240 ADA seeAvoidance of Discrimination Algiers PeaceAgreement (2000) 239 Act (ADA) All Burma Monks’Alliance (ABMA) Adamides, C. 210 280 AddisAbaba agreement 185 Alliance of Independent Social Adelman, Jeremy 133 Democrats (SNSD) 32 Afghanistan AMIB seeAfrican Union Peacekeeping post-9/11 campaign in 4 Mission (AMIB) regime changes 4, 329, 330, 342 ancien regime 125 Afghanistan, intervention in 297–300 ANEB see Association Nationale des 9/11 attack and 303 Étudiants Burkinabé (ANEB) economy 301–2, 308 Anglo-Egyptian Condominium (1899) five-step plan for statebuilding 300 189 international policy 305 Annan, Kofi 171 military intervention 303–7 Anthias, F. 209 national budget 307 Arab–Israeli War (1973) 113 Pakistan influence 306 Arab Revolts in 2011 22 political implications 308 Archer, M. 31, 32 political transition 303–7 Armed Forces Revolutionary Council regime change intervention after 258 9/11 301–3 Armstrong, David 127 security forces 308 Arusha PeaceAgreement 55–66 social implications 308 Ashanti territory, colonisation 256–7 Soviet intervention of 1979 297–8 Ashdown, Paddy 36 Taleban regime 297–9 Association Nationale des Étudiants United States and 303–7 Burkinabé (ANEB) 227 African Union Peacekeeping Mission Suu Kyi 18, 275–7, 280, (AMIB) 58 282–4, 286, 287, 290, 291 Afwerki, Isaias 239, 241, 243, 244, 251, Austin, Beatrix 9 252 authoritarian government, Burundi as Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud 131 59–60, 63, 66 Ahtisaari, Martti 172, 173 authoritarian regime 14 Ahtisaari Plan 172, 174 14 Akuffo 258 authoritarian rules 22, 143

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authoritarianism 11, 64 inequalities in groups 39 autocratic monarchy 72 international state-building or autocratic regimes 11 state-failing 35–7 Avoidance of DiscriminationAct migration 40 (ADA) 258 political changes 37–9 political discourses 30–31 Baganwa 50, 51 political parties 32 Bagaza, Jean-Baptiste 51 regime changes 330, 339–43 Bahr, Egon 94, 95 Serbian aggression 33 Bakhtiar, Sharpour 119, 120, 122 social changes 40–41 structural selectivity 30–32 Balai Citoyen 229, 230 unemployment rate 39 Bambara, Serge 229 war and its consequences 167–8 Ban Ki Moon 197 Bosniak–Croat conflict 36 ‘Bangkok process’281, 283 Bosniak–Croatian war (1992–94) 33 Bashingantahe 52, 66 Bosniak–Serbian conflict 36 Bashir 22 Bouazizi, Mohammed 140, 141, 144, Battle of Kosovo (1389) 165, 166 145, 328, 337 Bazargan, Mehdi 122–4 Brahmi, Mohamed 142 Belaid, Chroki 142 Branch,A. 196 Belgian colonial authorities 52 Brandt, Willy 94, 329 Belgrade Talks 171 British colonial policy 209 BenAli, ZineAbidine 137, 139–47, British constitutional system 209 156, 337 British MilitaryAdministration 240 BeniAmer group 241 Brobbey,V.269 Ben Jaafar, Mustafa 142 Broz Tito, Josip 164 Bertelsmann Transformation Index 249 Brubaker, R. 29 BGF see Border Guard Force (BGF) Bryant, R. 211, 213 plan in Myanmar 280 Bhandari, Ram Kumar 328, 342 Burkina Faso Bin Laden, Osama 299 Africa-wide wave of 230–31 Boahen,Adu 263 Association Nationale des Étudiants Bojicˇic´-Dželilovic´,V. 39 Burkinabé 227 Bonyads 132 Balai citoyen 329 Border Guard Force (BGF) plan 285 changing governments 225–6 Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), civil society pressure 226–8 political transition 27–8 constitutional referendum (1970) 1992–95 War in 29, 32–3 225, 227 citizen movement 40 by 228–30 cultural changes 41 history of strikes 225–6 DaytonAgreement 29, 43 international and regional context discourses of exclusion 32–4 230–31 economic changes 39–40 Kaboré, Roch Marc Christian 230, ethnic school system 41 233 ethnopolitics 28, 31 military coups 225–6 ethno-religious identities 31 regime change 231, 328, 329, 344 first post-war elections 29 and transition process 224 Fragile States Index 44 revolutionary regime 225

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Union Générale des Étudiants ‘cold peace’27 Burkinabé 227 13, 115, 127, 281 Burundi, political transition colonialism 21 Arusha PeaceAgreement 55–66 see Council for Mutual as authoritarian government 59–60, EconomicAssistance 63, 66 (COMECON) in colonial period 50 Commission on Human Rights and coup d’état (1996) 52–4 Administrative Justice (CHRAJ) democratic elections 266 in 1993 53 Committee of Constitutional Experts 262 in 2005 56, 57 Communist Party of Burma (CPB) 276 ethnic violence 49, 60 Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) ethnicity 57, 61, 64 (CPN-M) 74, 75 international community 63–4 Communist Party of Nepal – Unified limited change for common citizens Marxist–Leninist (CPN-UML) 76, 64–6 77, 79 period of 1966–83 53 Compaoré, Blaise 223–32, 328 post-colonial period 52 Compaoré, Simon 230 power-sharing successes 57–8 competitive street mobilisation 146 reintegration of refugees 64, 66 Comprehensive CeasefireAgreement returning refugees 65 56 violence 56, 60–62, 64, 66 Comprehensive PeaceAgreement Bush, George W. 299, 303 (CPA) 72, 76, 80, 183, 191, 195 Busia, KofiAbrefa 258 Article 3 of 78 Buyoya, Pierre 51, 53, 55–6, 61 Confédération Générale des Travail du Burkina 226 Carter, Jimmy 115 Conference on Security and Central Eastern Europe 92–4 Co-operation in Europe (CSCE) Central IntelligenceAgency (CIA) 112, 107 299 Congrès pour la Démocratie et le CfP see Congress for the Republic Progrès 229 (CfP) Congress for the Republic (CfP) 142 Chahed,Youssef 143, 149, 153 Conseil National Pour la Défense de la Chand, Netra Bikram 81 Démocratie (CNDD) 54, 55 Chinese Foreign Direct Investment 286 consociational 203 CHRAJ see Commission on Human Constantinou, C. M. 210 Rights andAdministrative Justice constitution-based transition process (CHRAJ) 146 citizen–soldier model 245–7 ConsultativeAssembly 262, 264 civil society organisations (CSOs) 52, Convention de Gouvernement 55 56, 57, 60, 64, 231, 269 Convention People’s Party (CPP) 257 ‘clash of civilisations’188 regime changes 258 Clinton, Hillary 298 Cooper,Andrew Scott 115 CNDD see Conseil National Pour la cordon sanitaire 91 Défense de la Démocratie Council for Islamic Revolution 122 (CNDD) Council for Mutual Economic CNDD-FDD system 54, 56–9, 61–3 Assistance (COMECON) 108

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counterinsurrection policy 282 demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) coup d’état 52–4, 328, 329 194 Čovic´, Dragan 34 democracy 16 CPA see Comprehensive Peace ‘Democracy Now’movement 101 Agreement (CPA) democratic elections, in Burundi 53, 56, CPB see Communist Party of Burma 57 (CPB) Democratic League of Dardania (LDD) CPN-M see Communist Party of Nepal 175 (Maoist) (CPN-M) Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) CPN-UML see Communist Party of 166, 176 Nepal – Unified Marxist–Leninist Democratic Movement of Kosovo (CPN-UML) (LDK) 175 CPP see Convention People’s Party Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) (CPP) 172, 175–6 Croatian Democratic Union of BiH 28 11, 53, 54 Crowe, Hillary 9 Demokratie Jetzt 101 CSCE see Conference on Security and demonetization 277 Co-operation in Europe (CSCE) Denktas¸, Rauf 209 CSOs see civil society organisations Derg regime 341 (CSOs) Diallo, Salif 229 cultural changes, Bosnia and Diendéré, Gilbert 232, 233 Herzegovina 41 displaced people 64 ‘culture of silence’259, 268 Dodik, Milorad 34, 36 Cyclone Nargis 281 Dorraj, Manochehr 132 CypriotArmy 204 Duffield, M. 196 Cyprus Dunn, John 113 Northern see Northern Cyprus political violence in 17 East Berlin, communist rule in 95 East German regime 329 Danquah, J. B. 256 East Germany see German Democratic Daoud, Mohammad 4 Republic (GDR), regime transition DaytonAgreement of 1995 17, 29–30, economic changes, Bosnia and 167, 339 Herzegovina 39–40 Dayton Conference 167 DDR see demobilisation and economic changes, in Ghana 266–7 reintegration (DDR) Economic Community of WestAfrican de Chickera,Amal 83 States (ECOWAS)233 de Waal,A. 196 economic inequalities 267 decision-making process 143, 149 economic reconciliation, Essebsi, Beji Declaration of Independence in 2008, Caid 152, 153 for Kosovo state 172–3 ECOWAS see Economic Community of Declaration on the Causes, Character WestAfrican States (ECOWAS) and Consequences of the Deadly education system reforms 178 Armed Conflict in BiH Egemen, S. 208 (1992–1995) 33 Eide, Kai 171, 172 decolonization, 50, 203, 224 electoral authoritarianism 224 Ghana 256 elite negotiation vs. street politics 146–9

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Index 355

‘elite pact’264 Essebsi, Beji Caid 141–3 Emmanuel, K. 191 economic reconciliation 152, 153 endogenous factors, regime changes Essid, Habib 143, 149 323–8 Ethiopia Enosis 203, 206, 209 Derg regime in 328 EOKA see National Organisation of and international community 239 Cypriot Fighters (EOKA) Ethiopian dictatorial rule 244 EPLF see Eritrean People’s Liberation Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Front (EPLF) Democratic Front (EPRDF) 242 EPRDF see Ethiopian People’s Ethiopian Red Star campaign 242 Revolutionary Democratic Front ethnic divides 58 (EPRDF) ethnic identity 51 EPRP see Eritrean People’s Revolutionary Party (EPRP) ethnic polarization 50 Eritrea ethnic politics 76 Algiers PeaceAgreement (2000) 239 inAfghanistan 302–3 citizen–soldier model 245–7 ethnic school system 41 current regime in 246 ethnic violence 49, 60 defence budget 247 ethnicitized policies 64 diaspora 248 ethnicity 57, 61, 64 Eritrean Liberation Front 240–41 ethnonational identities 42, 339 Eritrean People’s Liberation Front ethno-political conflicts 49 238, 239, 241–2 ethno-religious identities, in BiH 31, 38 external relations 247–8 European integration 38 history of 240 exogenous factors, regime changes ideology 250–51 323–5, 329–31, 346 independence 242 international community 239 Fadaiyan-e-Khalq 124 militarization 250 FBiH see Federation of Bosnia and People’s Front for Democracy and Herzegovina (FBiH) Justice 243 FDD see Forces pour la Défense de la political culture 242 Démocratie (FDD) political economy 248–9 Federal Constitution of 1946 164 Popular Defense Force 241 Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) regime changes 327, 340, 341, 344, 94, 336 345 Federal Republic ofYugoslavia 17, 20, society 249–50 328 transition from resilience to bare life Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina 244–5 (FBiH) 29, 34, 36, 38 Eritrea–Ethiopia Boundary commission Feinberg, W. 41 244, 247 financial dependency 212 Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) 240–41 FM see Freedom Movement (FM) Eritrean People’s Liberation Front FNL see Forces Nationales de (EPLF) 238, 239, 241–2, 248, 250, Libération (FNL) 340 Forces Nationales de Libération (FNL) Eritrean People’s Revolutionary Party 54, 56, 64 (EPRP) 241 Forces pour la Défense de la esprit de corps 58 Démocratie (FDD) 54, 55

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Ford, Gerald 114, 115 structure of 104 ‘Forum on International Support for from uneasiness to ‘refolution’ National Reconciliation in 96–101 Myanmar’281 unification Fragile States Index 44 ‘regime replacement’from Freedom House transition to 102–3 project 11 transition from regime change to scale, Myanmar 285–6 105–7 2016 press freedom index 268 (1944) 91 Freedom Movement (FM) 119, 123 German–German Basic Treaty (1972) 95 French revolution (1789) 21 Ghana FRG see Federal Republic of Germany 1992 Constitution 266–8 frodébisation 54 civil and political rights 266 FRODEBU see Front pour la decolonisation 256 Démocratie au Burundi elite factionalism after independence Front pour la Démocratie au Burundi 257–9 (FRODEBU) 53–6 military to civilian rule 264 Fukuyama, F. 12 military regimes 258–69 presidential and parliamentary Gaddafi, Muammar al- 4, 12 elections (1992) 263 Gafsa rebellion (2008) 140 pro-democracy movement 260–62 Garang de Maibor, John 186, 187, 192 regime changes 335–6, 343, 344 Gauck, Joachim 107 ‘third wave of democratisation’259 GBV see gender-based violence (GBV) transition process 259, 262–3 GDR see German Democratic Republic from 1990 to 1992 263–5 (GDR) cultural changes 268–9 gender-based violence (GBV) 195 economic changes 266–7 gender, political transitions 18–19 external factors 259–60 German Democratic Republic (GDR), internal factors 260–62 regime transition 328, 336–8, 343 political changes 265–6 communist rule in 95, 105 social changes 267–8 from détente to cooperation 93–6 Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS) economic policy 99 267 economy 104 Ghannouchi, Mohammed 141, 146 final political settlement (1946–55) Gharabaghi,Abbas 123 91 Giessmann, Hans J. 1–9, 317, 318, 327 free elections (1949) 101 Gilbert,A. 35 implications 103–5 Global CeasefireAgreement 56, 58 narrow-minded party leadership in 97 GLSS see Ghana Living Standards one-party rule 96 Survey (GLSS) party leadership 98 Gold Coast 256 party rule 92 colonial rule 256 political system 105 ‘good governance’concept 260 population 104 Goodwin, Jeff 326 reform process 94, 101, 102, 107 Gorbachev, Mikhail 92, 95–7, 103 Round Table experiment 101–2, 106 GoSS see Government of South Sudan social policy 99 (GoSS)

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Index 357

‘Goulash ’92 Hutu 49–57 Government of South Sudan 16 military 60 Government of South Sudan (GoSS) rebel-movements 62 187, 190, 197 returnees 65 Greek Cypriot community 202–8, 215, ‘Hutu-emancipation’50 329 Guerrero, Javier Gill 115 ICC see International Criminal Court Güryay, E. 212 (ICC) Gyanendra 75 ICTY see International Criminal Gyimah-Boadi, E. 269 Tribunal for the formerYugoslavia (ICTY) Haile Selassie 240, 241 identity politics 344–5 Halliday, Fred 117, 125, 127, 131 IGAD see IntergovernmentalAuthority Hansen, L. 43 on Development (IGAD) Harper, Mary 252 ILO see International Labor Harrington, Chatherine 83 Organization (ILO) Hatay, M. 211 Imbonerakure 60 hegemonic political discourses 32 IMF see International Monetary Fund; Helsinki Process 94 International Monetary Fund Heurteaux, Jérôme 138 (IMF) High Representative (HR) for Bosnia Imperial State of Iran 111 and Herzegovina 36 income inequalities 266 Hindu caste system 71 indirect rule strategy 189 Hobsbawn, E. 10 institutional changes 64, 66 Holbrooke, Richard 168, 169 institutionalization of divides 58 homo islamicus, notion of 148 IntergovernmentalAuthority on Honecker, Erich 100 Development (IGAD) 187, 247 horizontal inequalities 39, 62, 73, 326, Interim National Election Commission 327 262–3 Horn, Gyula 97 ‘internal colonialism,’Madesh region human development, concept of 331 77 Human Development Index 64, 331 Internal Security Forces (ISF) 147 human trafficking 244 international community 58, 111 Huntington, S. P., ‘third wave Ethiopia and 239 democratization’3–4, 14, 265, role of 63–4 275–86 international community involvement democratic quality of rulers 287 168–9 issues in democracy 287 International Criminal Court (ICC) 21, transition process analysis 22 changing policies 280–81 International Criminal Tribunal for the declining legitimacy 280 formerYugoslavia (ICTY) 30, 33 democratic contagion 278–9 international justice regimes 11 economic development and crises International Labor Organization (ILO) 279–80 157 poor government performances International Monetary Fund (IMF) 20, 280 63, 148 religious changes 280 International Relations (IR) 112, 129

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International SecurityAssistance Force Kaboré, Roch Marc Christian 233 (ISAF) 305, 306 Kafando, Michel 224, 232 international social system 112 Karzai, Hamid 300 international state-building or Kasapovic´, M. 29 state-failing 35–7 Kaymak, E. 208 international system 127 Keen, D. 196 Inzko,Valentin40 Khamenei,Ali 131 Iran hostage crisis (1979–81) 338 282, 283 16–17, 111, 115, Khomeini, Ruhollah 118–28, 130, 131 117 Khomenei,Ayatollah 344 Kiir, S. 183, 187, 189, 190, 340 Iran–Iraq War 131 KLA see Kosovo LiberationArmy Iran, transition in 111–12 (KLA) Arab–Israeli War (1973) 113 Klein, Naomi 330 Arab Sunni neighbours 128 ‘kleptocracy’19 demise of moderates 125–7 Knopf, K. A. 183 economy 114 Kohl, Helmut 103 external factors 113–16 komitehs 125 foreign policy 128 Koshtunica,Vojislav 172 Imperial State of Iran 111 Kosovo international impact 127–31 1990 referendum in Serbia 166–7 Islam, need of 118–22 autonomy 165 Islamic Republic of Iran 111, 123, challenges in 166 127 166 oil revenues 113 Declaration of Independence in provisional government 122–4 2008 172–3 regime changes 338–9, 343, 344 Democratic League of Dardania 175 social movements vs. monarchy Democratic Movement of Kosovo 116–18 175 US foreign policy 113–15 Democratic Party of 172, 175–6 veleyat-e faqir 123 education system 165 ISAF see International Security international community Assistance Force (ISAF) involvement 168–9 ISF see Internal Security Forces (ISF) London Conference (1912–13) 163 Islamic Republic of Iran 111, 123, 126, NorthAtlantic Treaty Organization 127, 129, 132 (NATO) 169–70 Islamic Revolutionary movement 125 ongoing transition 177–8 Islam, in Iran 118–22 Ottoman Empire 163, 166 ‘Islam’s second globalisation’113 political autonomy of 164 Ivanic´, Mladen 33 political elites, central role of 173–7 Iyob, Ruth 245 Rambouillet Conference (1999) 169 Izetbegovic´,Alija 33 regime changes 330 riots in 2004 and statehood solution Jalal,Ayesha 111 170–71 Jaleh Square, Tehran 112 self-determination in 165 jana andolan 73, 75, 76 Self-Determination Party 176–7 Jebali, Hamadi 142 Serbian repression 164–6 Jeffries, R. 260, 264 as territory 163, 166

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Index 359

UN Security Council Resolution Madeshis 77, 81, 82 1244 169–70 Mahdavi Khani, Mohammad-Reza 125 Vienna talks andAhtisaari proposal Maier, Charles S. 98, 102 172 Makarios (Archbishop) 204, 206, 207, War and its consequences in 209 Bosnia-Herzegovina 167–8 Mamphilly, Z. C. 196 Kosovo Force (KFOR) 170 Mandela, Nelson 55 Kosovo LiberationArmy (KLA) 167, Manich Msamah 152, 153 168 Manji, F. 230 Kosyrev,Andrej 4 Maoist Krause, Günther 103 conflict 73, 76 Krenz, Egon 100, 101 insurgency 73, 74, 328 Küçük, Fazıl 204 People’s LiberationArmy 77 Kufuor, John 263, 267, 268 ‘People’s War’72 Kurzman, Charles 117, 118, 121, 125 Maoist Party 76, 79 Marxist Fadaiyan-e-Khalq 124 Lacher, H. 208 Marzouki, Moncef 142 Lagu, Joseph 185 Massoud,Ahmed Shah 297, 298 Lambrakis, George 124 Mauriac, François Charles 93 Lamizana, Sangoulé 225 Mbazaa, Fouad 142 Larayedh,Ali 142, 147 MBDHP see Mouvement Burkinabé des Lawson, George 113 Droits de l’Homme et des Peuples LDD see Democratic League of (MBDHP) Dardania MEC see Myanmar Economic LDK see Democratic League of Kosovo Corporation (MEC) Lemarchand, R. 58 media environment 268 ‘less successful’regime change 339–41 MEK see Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK) liberal democracy 71, 79, 269 Menkhaus, K. 42 liberal economic policy 227 Merkel,Angela 107 liberal ideology 75 MFJ see Movement for Freedom and liberal peace 11, 71, 72, 75, 82 Justice (MFJ) liberalisation 92 Micombero, Michel 51 liberation movement 185, 243, 244, 250 militarisation 195 Lijphart’s consociational model 57 military-political patronage system 193 Limann, Hilla 258 military regime 184–5 LMIC see low and middle-income Milosevic´ regime 1 country (LMIC) Milosevic´, Slobodan 165, 166, 168, 169 Local GovernmentAct of 1988 (PNDC MinAung Hlaing 280, 284 Law, 207) 261 Ministry of the Interior (MoI) 143, 147 Locke, John 326 Mitteleuropapolitik 93 lower middle-income country (LMIC) mobilization 205, 206 266 Mogho Naba 232 Loya Jirga 300 MoI see Ministry of the Interior (MoI) Lyman, P.183 Moi aussi j’ai mis le feu à un poste de police 151, 152 Mac Ginty, R. 1–9, 317, 318 Moin, Baqer 125 Machar, Riek 190, 192, 340 Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK) 124

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monarchy of Iran, social movements vs. Huntington, S. P., ‘third wave 116–18 democratization’see Morrison, J. S. 196 Huntington, S. P., ‘third wave Morsi, Mohamed 16 democratization’ Mossadeq, Mohammad 118, 119 insurgencies 289 Motahhari, Morteza 127 international relations changes 286 Mouvement Burkinabé des Droits de National Convention 279, 283 l’Homme et des Peuples National League for Democracy 275 (MBDHP) 227 peace 289 Mouvement pour la solidarité et la Polity IV index 285 democratie (MSD) 63 poor government performances 280 Mouvement pour le Peuple et le Progrès poverty 279, 288–9 230 process analysis 278–85 Movement for Freedom and Justice regime change 285–6, 343, 344 (MFJ) 261–3 religious changes 280 MPRM see Muslim People’s Rohingya 290 Republican Party (MPRM) 276, 280, 281–5, 287, MSD see Mouvement pour la solidarité 289–91 et la democratie (MSD) unemployment rates 288 Mubarak, Hosni 15, 16 Muhamad Nur, Ramadan 241 Najibullah, Mohammad 4, 298 mujaheddin 4, 297, 298, 300 ‘Nakfa Syndrom’245 mujaheddin movement 298 Nalbantogˇlu, Burhan 209 Müller, Tanja R. 246 National Charter, Eritrea 243 multidimensional poverty 72 National Commission for Democracy multi-layered patron-client networks 50 (NCD) 261, 262 multiparty liberal democratic system National ConstituentAssembly (NCA) 261 142, 146–7, 149 Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt 142, 149 National Convention (NC), Myanmar Muslim People’s Republican Party 279, 283 (MPRM) 126 National Front (NF) 119, 123 Mwami 49, 52 National Health Insurance Scheme 267 Myanmar Economic Corporation National Islamic Front (NIF) 186 (MEC) 279 National League for Democracy (NLD) Myanmar’s transition 275, 283, 287, 289, 290 2015 elections 285 National Liberation Movement (NLM) Buddhism 280 257 changing policies 280–81 National Media Commission 266 communal violence 290 National Organisation of Cypriot declining legitimacy 280 Fighters (EOKA) 203 democratic contagion 278–9 National Salvation Front (NSF) 142 economic development and crises National Service, Eritrea 250, 251 279–80 nationalism 205, 206 economy 288 Nationwide CeasefireAgreement ethnicity 276 (NCA) 285 foreign investor in 278 NATO see NorthAtlantic Treaty Freedom House scale 285–6 Organization (NATO)

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Index 361

NC Convening Commission (NCCC) Nidaa Tounes 142, 149 283 NIF see National Islamic Front (NIF) NCA see National Constituent Nimeiri, Muhammad 185, 186 Assembly (NCA); Nationwide Nimeiri regime 185 CeasefireAgreement (NCA) 113 NCCC see NC Convening Commission Nizigama, Gabriel 67 (NCCC) Nkrumah, Kwame 257, 258, 271 NCD see National Commission for Nkurunziza, Pierre 56, 57, 59, 60 Democracy (NCD) NLM see National Liberation Ndadaye, Melchior 53–5, 61 Movement (NLM) 277 non-governmental organisations neoliberalism 139 (NGOs) 74, 184, 197 neo-patrimonial governance 61 see also authoritarian government NorthAtlantic Treaty Organization Nepal, political transition (NATO) 1, 304, 306 2013 elections 77 airstrikes 169–70 after civil war 70–72 Northern Cyprus constrained change 78–81 conflict democratic ideology in 80 main actors in 205 end of king’s power 75 proximate and structural causes of ethnic politics 76 205–7 ethnicities in 70 role of external actors in 209–10 failure of constituent assembly 76 winners and losers of 207–8 failure of liberalism 80–81 financial dependency 212 governance 75 global trends of transitions 210–11 as ‘imperial progressives’72 Greek Cypriot community 202–8 Maoist insurgency 73, 74 gross domestic product 213 Maoist ‘People’s War’72, 82 influence of structural factors 207 new constitution promulgation 77, National Organisation of Cypriot 80–81 Fighters 203 panchayat system 72–3 post-1974 political system 212 peacebuilding process 71, 72, 75, 80, transition process development 207 82 Turkish Cypriots community 202–8 political history 72–5 Turkish military intervention 202 political parties 79–80 political shifts and developments, Turkish Resistance Organization 203 1950–present 85–7 violent conflict in 209 population 72, 74, 77 NSF see National Salvation Front regime change without regime (NSF) change 76–8 Nyaba, P. A. 188 regime changes 342, 343 Nyerere, Julius 55 roots of future conflict 80–81 Nepali Congress (NC) 76 OAU see Organisation ofAfrican Unity Nepali federalism 81 (OAU) New Generation movement 151 Office of the High Representative NF see National Front (NF) (OHR) 30, 37 NGOs see non-governmental OHR see Office of the High organisations (NGOs) Representative (OHR)

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OLS see Operation Lifeline Sudan permanent transition 14–15 (OLS) perpetual transition 28 Önder, Fazıl 206 personal leadership quality, regime OPEC see Organization of the changes 344 Petroleum Exporting Countries PFDJ see People’s Front for Democracy (OPEC) and Justice (PFDJ) Operation Lifeline Sudan (OLS) 196, PGOI see Provisional Government of 330 Iran (PGOI) Oquaye, M. 260 Pinaud, C. 195 Organisation ofAfrican Unity (OAU) Platzeck, Matthias 107 PNDC see Provisional National 51, 55 Defence Council (PNDC) Organization for Security and political changes Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Bosnia and Herzegovina 37–9 168 Ghana 265–6 Organization of the Petroleum South Sudan 191–3 Exporting Countries (OPEC) 115 political culture 246 OSCE see Organization for Security political economy, Eritrea 248–9 and Co-operation in Europe political education 244 (OSCE) political liberalization 227 94, 95, 329 political movement 185 Ottoman Empire 163, 166, 203 political system 96 Ouédraogo, David 227 political transitions 10–11 Ouédraogo, Jean-Baptiste 225 inAfghanistan 303–7 aftermath and legacy of 20–22 Pahlavi dynasty 111, 115, 122 biases 12–14 Palipehutu-FNL 54, 56 Bosnia-Herzegovina 17 Panayiotou,A. 205, 206, 209 Burundi see Burundi, political panchayat system 72, 73 transition Parti pour la Liberation du Peuple Hutu Cyprus 17–18 54 economy of 16, 19–20 ‘patrimonial militarized tribalism’187 gender 18–19 PDK see Democratic Party of Kosovo geo-politics 12 (PDK) Ghana 20 peace accords 11 legitimiser of new forms of division peacebuilding 35, 36, 210 16–18 Nepal 71, 72, 75, 80, 82 Myanmar 14–15 Peace Implementation Council (PIC) 30 Nepal see Nepal, political transition Pendle, N. 189 new forms of division 16–18 movement, ‘permanent transition’14–15 278 political change 15–16 People’s Democratic Party 184 and regime change 11 People’s Front for Democracy and SouthAfrica 21 Justice (PFDJ) 243, 249 South Sudan 16 People’s LiberationArmy 77 UN Resolution 1325 (2000) 18 People’s Movement 73–5 political violence 61 People’s War 72, 81, 82 Polity IV data 347 reforms 96 Polity IV index 285

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Index 363

‘post-conflict’transition 184 political and economic 149 post-war status quo 27 regime changes 1–2 Pöttering, Hans-Gert 173 inAfghanistan 4 power-sharing 346 endogenous factors 6 Burundi 57–8, 62, 66 exogenous factors 6 Preventive DetentionAct 258 impact of 6 prima facie 300 of political and academic interest 3–7 primus inter pares 305 regime change without 76–8 provisional government of Iran (PGOI) transitions and 11 122–6, 128 in twentieth century 4 Provisional National Defence Council regime changes, 14 case studies (PNDC) 258–9, 261, 264, 335 Afghanistan 329, 330, 342 Law 253 of 1991 262 Bosnia-Herzegovina 330, 339–43 Public–Private Partnership law 148 Burkina Faso 328, 329, 344 Pupavac,V.18 divides 343 East German 329 Quadripartite Agreement on Berlin endogenous factors 323–8 (1971) 95 Eritrea 327, 340, 341, 344, 345 quasi-protectorate 38 exogenous factors 323–5, 329–31, 346 Rabbani, Burhanuddin 300 German Democratic Republic (GDR) Radio PubliqueAfricaine (RPA) 63 328, 336–8, 343 Radjabu, Hussein 59 Ghana 335–6, 343, 344 Rafsanjani,Akbar Hashemi 131 Iran 338–9, 343 Rambouillet Conference (1999) 169 Kosovo 330 Rassemblement Constitutionnel ‘less successful’339–41 Démocratique (RCD) 141, 152 Myanmar 343, 344 Rawlings, Jerry 258–64, 271, 329, 335 Nepal 342 Rawls, John 326 non-linearity of factors 341 RCD see Rassemblement outcomes 331–5, 341 Constitutionnel Démocratique less successful regime change (RCD) 339–41 ReaganAdministration 130 quality of 332–3, 347 refolution 137 ‘successful’regime change 335–9 of Germany 96–101, 103, 106 overview of cases 319–20, 332–3 reform policy 92, 97 quality of (personal) leadership 344 refugees, return and reintegration of quantitative indicators 321–2 64–6 social and personal re-learning 344–5 regime change process, Tunisia 138, South Sudan 330, 340, 342 143–4 ‘successful’335–9 concepts of 138 systemic nature of 341 elite negotiation vs. street politics Taleban 329 146–9 transitional justice 343–4 everyday state formation 149–54 Tunisia 337–8, 342, 343 implications of 154–6 unpredictability of factors 341 micro-politics of mass mobilisation Régiment de Sécurité Présidentielle 144–6 (RSP) 223

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regime replacement, from transition to segregation 202 unification 102–3 Seifert, Christine 9 Rehn, Olli 38 Sejdiu, Fatmir 172 Reid, Richard 239, 245 ‘selective corruption’336 ‘rent-seeking rebellion’187 Self-Determination Party (VV) 176–7 Republic of Cyprus (RoC) 202–4, 206 self-reliance 244 Republic of Srpska (RS) 29, 33, 34, 38 semi-authoritarian regime 224, 228 restorative justice 143 Sen,Amartya 331 ‘re-unification’107 Serbia, 1990 referendum in 166–7 Revolutionary Council 125, 126 Serbian aggression 33 Serbian Democratic Party (SDS) 28 revolutionary movement 112, 116, 118, Serbian political discourse 34 121, 126–8 Serbian repression 164–6 Riehl,V.196 Seven Step right-wing parties 207, 208 (SPDC) 282–3 Robins, Simon 328 Shah, Birendra 73 RoC see Republic of Cyprus (RoC) Shah Muhammad Reza Pahlavi 111–22, Rohingya 276, 290, 291, 344 126, 127, 129, 132, 344 Rolandsen, O. H. 193 Shariati,Ali 121 Rooksby E. 209 Shariatmadari, Mohammad Kazem 126 Round Table experiment 101–2, 106 Sharif, Mazaar-e 298 Round Table, Poland 336–7 Shia clergy 112 RPA see Radio PubliqueAfricaine Shia jurisprudence 111 (RPA) Shinawatra, Thaksin 281 RS see Republic of Srpska (RS) Sidahmed,A. 184 RSP see Régiment de Sécurité Sidi Bouzid 140, 141 Présidentielle (RSP) SIGAR see Special Inspector General Ruay, D. D.A. 188 forAfghanistan Reconstruction Rugova, Ibrahim 166, 167, 175 (SIGAR) ‘rule of the Islamic jurist’123 ‘’92, 97 Rwagasore, Louis 50 Sino–Burmese relations 280, 286 Rwanda 54, 55 Skocpol, Theda 117, 122, 127 end of colonial period 50 SLORC see State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) SAF see SudaneseArmed Forces (SAF) SLPM-in opposition (SPLM-IO) 190 ‘’277, 280, 284, 290 social changes Sall, Macky 230 Bosnia and Herzegovina 40–41 Sams’K le Jah 229 in Ghana 267–8 Sankara, Thomas 225, 226 social contract 326 Sassanid Empire 120 social inequalities 267 277 Social–Liberal coalition 94 Schäuble, Wolfgang 103 social mobilisation 11 school system, ethnic 41 social movements 150, 151, 234 Schürer, Gerhard 100 vs. monarchy 116–18 SDS see Serbian Democratic Party social and personal re-learning, regime (SDS) changes 344–5 Second World War 28 ‘Social Revolution’of 1959 50 Seeberg, Peter 125 Socialist Unity Party 92, 97, 107

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Index 365

socio–cultural orientation 17 Sudan People’s LiberationArmy solidarity movement 92 (SPLA) 186, 192, 195 South Sudan Sudan People’s Liberation Movement AddisAbaba agreement 185 340 civil war 183 Sudan Peoples’Liberation Movement/ civilian and military regimes 184 Army (SPLM/A) 183, 187, 188, colonial state, legacies of 188–91 191, 192, 197 Comprehensive PeaceAgreement 183 Taleban 301, 307–8 conflict management in 186 peace negotiations with 306 ‘divide and rule’strategy 189 regime 297–9 indirect rule strategy 189 Taleban de facto government 303 international and NGO reactions 196–7 Tanrısevdi, Kemal 209 Liberation Movement 185 Tatmadaw 276, 279–85, 287, 289–91 overview 183–4 277–9, 283, 284 political changes 191–3 Thaqi, Hashim 172, 175 ‘post-conflict’transition 184 277, 278, 280, 283–6, 288, rebel movements 192 289 regime changes 340–42 ‘third wave democratization’ security and identity changes 193–6 (Huntington) 275–6 southern region of 184 democratic quality of rulers 287 women’s position in 195 issues in democracy 287 Soviet intervention of 1979, in transition process in Myanmar Afghanistan 297–8 278–85 Sovietisation 105 Thomas, C. 260, 264 SPDC see Seven Step Roadmap to Tito regime 17 Democracy (SPDC) TMT see Turkish Resistance Special Inspector General for Organization (TMT) Afghanistan Reconstruction Touré,Amadou Toumani 234 (SIGAR) 305 trade union association 226 SPLA see Sudan People’s Liberation transitional constitution 190 Army (SPLA) transitional justice 21 SPLM/A see Sudan Peoples’Liberation in Burundi 344 Movement/Army (SPLM/A) in Tunisia 343 SPLM-IO see SLPM-in opposition transition process (SPLM-IO) BiH see Bosnia and Herzegovina ‘Srebrenisation of Bosnia’34 (BiH), political transition State Law and Order Restoration Burundi, political see Burundi, Council (SLORC) 277, 279 political transition state legitimacy 326 GDR see German Democratic State Peace and Development Council Republic (GDR), regime (SPDC) 277 transition street politics, elite negotiation vs. Ghana 259, 262–3 146–9 from 1990 to the end of ‘strengthening civil society’269 1992 263–5 ‘successful’regime change 335–9 cultural changes 268–9 SudaneseArmed Forces (SAF) 194 economic changes 266–7

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external factors 259–60 Turkish Cypriots community 202–8, internal factors 260–2 215 political changes 265–6 Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus social changes 267–8 (TRNC) 202, 211, 213 Huntington, S. P., ‘third wave Turkish Resistance Organization democratization’ (TMT) 203, 206, 208 changing policies 280–81 Turko–Egyptian rule (1821–85) 188 declining legitimacy 280 Tutsi 49–58 democratic contagion 278–9 migrants 65 economic development and crises military 60 279–80 poor government performances UAE see UnitedArab Emirates (UAE) 280 UGCC see United Gold Coast religious changes 280 Convention (UGCC) Iran, see Iran, transition in UGEB see Union Générale des Myanmar see Myanmar’s transition Étudiants Burkinabé (UGEB) Nepal, political see Nepal, political UMEHL see Union of Myanmar transition Economic Holdings Limited transnational civil society 18 (UMEHL) transnational violence 22 UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) TRC see Truth and Reconciliation 197, 198 Commission (TRC) UN Nations Missions in Ethiopia and TRNC see Turkish Republic of Eritrea (UNMEE) 244 Northern Cyprus (TRNC) UN Resolution 1325 (2000) 18 Trump, Donald 306 UN Security Council Resolution Truth and Dignity Commission 143 1244 169–70 Truth and Reconciliation Commission UN Security Council Resolution (TRC) 64 1368 310 Tunisia UN Somalia and Eritrea Monitoring economic growth 141 Group 247 free and fair election (2011) 142 unemployment Gafsa rebellion (2008) 140 Afghanistan 308 National ConstituentAssembly 142 Bosnia 39 neoliberalism 139 Myanmar 288 refolution 137 unification, of Germany 91, 102–3, regime changes 138, 143–4, 337–8, 105–7 342, 343 Unification Treaty of 1990 103 elite negotiation vs. street politics Union Générale des Étudiants 146–9 Burkinabé (UGEB) 227 everyday state formation 149–54 Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings micro-politics of mass Limited (UMEHL) 279 mobilisation 144–6 Union pour le Progrès National restorative justice 143 (UPRONA) 50–52, 54–6, 65 revolutionary movements in 151 Union Solidarity and Development rural communities 139 Association (USDA) 278 social movements 151 Union Solidarity and Development transition process 137 Party (USDP) 283–4

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Index 367

UnitedArab Emirates (UAE) 247 Wade,Abdoulaye 230 United Gold Coast Convention (UGCC) Wandel durch Annäherung 108 256, 257 War on Terror 13, 310 United Nations Development Weber,Annette 327 Programme (UNDP) 331, 334 West Germany see German Democratic United Nations InterimAdministration Republic (GDR), regime Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) 170 transition United Wa StateArmy (UWSA) Woldemikael, Tekle M. 246 280–81 World Bank 19, 20, 260, 266, 270, 286 UNMEE see UN Nations Missions in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) Xi Jinping 286 UNMIK see United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo UPRONA see Union pour le Progrès Yahya,Ahmet 206 National (UPRONA) Yakinthou, C. 213 US foreign policy 113–15 Yalta Conference (1944) 91 US imperialism 127 Yaméogo, Maurice 225 US–Iranian relations 111, 129 Ylönen,A. 191 USDA see Union Solidarity and Young, J. 192 DevelopmentAssociation Young People’s Front for Democracy (USDA) and Justice (YPFDJ) 248 UWSA see United Wa StateArmy Yugoslav war 28–9 (UWSA) Yugoslav federation 163–5 Yugoslavia van Leeuwen, Mathijs 327 Belgrade Talks 171 Vandeginste, S. 62 communist regime 164 veleyat-e faqir 123 constitutional order 165 Velicˇkovic´, N. 41 dissolution of 167 113 Federal Constitution of 163 violence Afghanistan 303 Zerbo, Saye 225 Burundi 56, 60–62, 64, 66 Zida,Yacouba Isaac 223, 224 communal, Myanmar 290 ‘zones de regroupement et protection’ gender-based 195 54 political 61 Zongo, Justin 228 transnational 22 Zongo, Norbert 227, 228, 231, 234 violence-free democratic system 335 Zougmoré, Chrysogone 231 ‘Voiceof the Islamic Revolution’123 Zuma, Jacob 55

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