3rd Commemoration Seminar of Gorkha Earthquake

Session 4 Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance through implementation of Valley Resilience Plan (KVRP) and Investment for Disaster Risk Reduction

Kedar NEUPANE Joint Secretary, MoHA

26th April 2018 Contents

Basic Concept of Sendai Framework for DRR Understanding Disaster Risk Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance Investment for Disaster Risk Reduction Towards implementation of DRR Measures

2 Sendai Framework for DRR

7 Global Targets

(a) Reduce (b) Reduce (c) Reduce (d) Reduce damage mortality affected people economic loss to critical infrastructure (e) Increase number of (f) Enhance (g) Enhance Access to countries with national International the Disaster & local DRR strategies Cooperation Information 4 Priorities Priority 2 Priority 4 for Action Priority 1 Priority 3 Strengthening Enhancing disaster Understanding Investment disaster risk preparedness and disaster risk for DRR governance “Build Back Better” 3 Understanding Disaster Risk

4 Seismic Potential in

2015 Gorkha EQ Seismic Gap Kathmandu

Still much Possibility of Big Earthquake

5 Risk Assessment in Scenario Earthquake and Estimated Shaking level Scenario Earthquake

Shaking in KV

2 times 3 times

Critical Facilities and Other Facilities Infrastructures 6 Safe and Resilience by Type of Facilities To keep functions at the time of disaster

Safe Severe shaking Critical Infrastructure (School, hospital, government building, bridge, etc.) Resilience Moderate shaking level Other facilities (Residential, Commercial residential mixed buildings)

7 Result of Risk Assessment

30.6 % of total buildings! 26.7 % of total Bridges To maintain urban function at the event of disaster, important to 28.9secure % of total safety of critical facilities and school buildings! infrastructures

What should be done to reduce estimated damages?

Human Casualty Economic Loss 0.3% Death NPR765,675 Mil 3.32 % Injured 36% of National GDP 42.92 % Evacuee! 8 Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance

Kathmandu Valley Resilience Plan (KVRP) Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP)

9 Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance ～Relationship with KVRP and LDRRP～

National DRR Plan KVRP

LDRRP Provence, District, Municipality

For Residents 10 Kathmandu Valley Resilience Plan (KVRP) ～Objectives of the KVRP～

Comprehensive Policy Framework

Measures to Avoid Worst Case Scenario

Concept of Build Back Better (BBB)

Overall Guideline for Development

The time frame: 20 years

11 Kathmandu Valley Resilience Plan (KVRP) ～Road Map～ Key Milestone

 2020 (Short)  Strategy and Planning

 2025 (Medium)  Implementation mainly for critical infrastructures

 2030 (Long)  Revision of Plans

12 Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) ～Formulation Flow of LDRRP～ ①Risk Identification

②Setting DRR Target and Measures

③ Clarify Roles and Responsibilities between National and Local government

④Priority Measures for DRR

13 Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) ～①Risk Identification～ Example: Lalitpur MC

Building Damage (Heavy) Risk Map (Flood and Fire) ① Risk Assessment and Identification (Understanding Risk) Flood and Fire Landslide 14 Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) ～④Priority Measures for DRR～ Example: Lalitpur MC

④ Plan and Prioritize Actions for DRR, Budgeting, and Implement 15 Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) DRR Activities

16 Investment for DRR National Level Efforts Improve Seismic Resistance of School Buildings Local Level Efforts Building Permit and Promotion to improve Seismic Resistance of Residential Houses Designation and Development of Open Spaces for Evacuation

17 Investment for DRR (National Level Efforts) ～School Building Strengthening～

Moderate:810 (14.1%) Heavy: 1,654 (28.9%) Total: 2,464 (43.0%)

Very High! Reason necessary to take action

Investment for Retrofitting and Re-building is Necessary to Mitigate Damages

Note: Total No. of School Buildings: 5,731 (2,115 schools) 18 Rebuild Vulnerable School Bldgs to Reduce Damage Case of Rebuilding (Adobe, Brick Masonry with mud mortar)

Current situation Rebuild Vulnerable building Structure Type No. of No. of heavy No. of No. of No. of heavy No. of building damage death building damage death

Adobe 9 7 36 Rebuild to brick masonry BM with mud mortar, > 20 yr 305 214 369 with cement mortar BM with mud mortar, < 20 yr 212 105 183 BM with cement mortar Rebuild 526 159 268 Total 526 326 588 526 159 268 -167 (51%)

-320 (54%) Construction cost: 12,868 mil. NPR (1.23% of National Budget)

19 Progress of School Building Strengthening in Japan

Progress of Retrofitting of Public School Buildings

More than 20 Years to achieve in Japan

Source: MEXT, 2016

20 Investment for DRR (Local Level Efforts) Example: Lalitpur MC Strengthening of Residential Buildings Enforcement of Building Permit System Not possible to implement Rough Estimation of costs for Seismic onlyRetrofitting with local of BuildingsGovernment Building damage & Economic Loss (Reconstruction cost) Building Economic loss damage (mil. NPR) Building Heavy damage 9,603(18.2%) 57,355 ×20% = 11,471 (2016) Moderate damage 6,277(11.9%) (Rough estimate (Total: for Retrofitting) (mil. NPR) 52,821) Slight damage 9,322(17.6%) 10.5 times Annual Budget of Lalitpur Metropolitan City = 1,085 (Actual Income 2072/2073 (2016-2017)) (mil. NPR)21 Investment for DRR (Local Level Efforts) Example: Lalitpur MC Evacuation and Development of Open Space Designation and Development of Open Spaces as Evacuation Place and DRR bases Local Government can manage

22 Challenges for Investment for DRR

 How to implement Risk Assessment  How to speed up formulation of LDRRP  How to secure budget for DRR  How to coordinate related Ministries  How to prioritize necessary DRR Projects and implemented

23 Towards Implementation of DRR Measures

24 Implementation of DRR Measures ～New Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act～

Natural Calamity Relief Act, Response Oriented 1982⇒1989⇒1992 Response oriented to DRR Disaster Risk Reduction Comprehensive and and Management Act, 2017 DRR Oriented National Level • National Council for DRRM⇒Chaired by Prime Minister • Executive Committee⇒Chaired by Minister of MoHA • Experts Committee⇒5 members with various fields of expertise • National DRRM Authority⇒under MoHA Local Level • Province Disaster Management Committee⇒Chaired by Chief Ministers • DistrictWith Disaster coordination Management Committee of NCDRRM ⇒Chaired byand Chief EC, District NDRRMA Officer • Localexpected (Municipality to and coordinate Similar) Disaster Line Management Ministries Committee to⇒ speedChaired by up Mayor/Chairperson implementation of DRR Measures 25 Issues on Implementation of KVRP and LDRRP National Council for DRRM (Prime Minister) Clarification of Roles/Responsibility,Executive Committee and Demarcation of Works (Ministerbetween ofNational MoHA) and Local Gov. Coordination among Ministries FormulationNational of Operation DRRM Plan Authority by each Line Ministries and MoHA(Chief Executive) will coordinate Formulation of Plans for each Measures based on Operation Plan (E.g. Seismic Performance Improvement Line Line Line Line Plan of Schools by MoEdu, and Bridge・・・・・ by MoPIT Ministries Ministries Ministries Ministries Budgeting for Implementation

Local Local Local Local Local ・・・・・・Local Gov. Gov. Gov. Gov. Gov. Gov.

26 Implementation of DRR Measures Nepal’s Efforts to be disseminated to Asia and World

In Mongolia July 3-6, 2018 Tremendous efforts have been made by the Government of Nepal in cooperation of JICA and other partners and it is the time to disseminate efforts made to other Asian Countries and then to the World 27 Government National Research Government Security Institutes/Unive Agencies rsities Provincial Engineers, Governments Hospitals, Consultants DCC Fire Local Brigades Health Facilities Governments Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Donor Agencies is Lifeline NGOs/INGOs Agencies/Comp EVERYONE’S BUSINESS anies

Schools Media Teachers, Students Citizen Societies Volunteers Citizens /Communities Business Private Sectors Entrepreneurs 28

Reference

30 Estimated Total Damage Amount Each Municipality (Unit: Million NPR) District Municipality CNS-1 CNS-2 CNS-3 WN Bhaktapur 11,570 22,392 31,529 4,536 Changunarayan 11,128 24,543 37,062 3,726 BHAKTAPUR Madhyapur Thimi 11,378 23,877 34,396 3,426 Suryabinayak 15,769 32,751 47,208 4,260 Total (BHAKTAPUR) 49,845 103,563 150,195 15,947 7,490 21,198 36,607 4,279 Chandragiri 25,664 48,190 64,429 8,275 6,016 11,976 16,947 1,583 7,981 20,586 34,319 4,117 Kageshwori Manohara 6,045 15,452 25,248 2,622 Kathmandu Metropolitan City 118,000 244,421 352,694 49,390 KATHMANDU 18,771 33,123 42,936 5,833 Nagarjuna 14,650 31,653 46,616 5,959 1,441 3,931 7,090 939 Tarkeshwar 6,875 17,998 30,095 4,521 5,911 15,983 27,094 3,396 Total（KATHMANDU） 218,844 464,511 684,075 90,914 Bardeu Rural Municipality 383 839 1,286 70 Bagmati Rural Municipality 272 574 860 67 Godawari 27,257 51,396 69,725 6,227 LALITPUR Lalitpur Metropolitan City 57,355 107,349 145,934 15,861 Mahalaxmi 16,670 32,493 45,053 3,837 Konjyosom Rural Municipality 378 810 1,225 77 Total （Lalitpur） 102,314 193,460 264,083 26,138 Grand Total 371,003 761,534 1,098,353 132,999 31 Estimated Damage Amount by Facility Each Critical Facilities (School, Hospital, Government, Historical Buildings) (Unit: Million NPR)

Scenario ground Health Government Historical motion School Facility Building Architecture

WN 20,462 22,534 2,444 1,321

CNS-1 51,231 68,588 8,669 1,925

CNS-2 98,171 165,683 16,514 2,267

CNS-3 134,932 232,782 22,708 2,377

32 Estimated Damage Amount by Facility Each Critical Infrastructures (road, bridge, sewage, power distribution and mobile BTS (Unit: Million NPR) Scenario Mobile ground Road Bridge Water Sewage Power Total motion BTS 0 377 36 76 19 82 590 WN 0.0% 63.9% 6.1% 12.9% 3.2% 13.9% 100.0% 471 898 71 135 56 272 1,903 CNS-1 24.8% 47.2% 3.7% 7.1% 2.9% 14.3% 100.0% 1,620 1,359 129 200 129 707 4,144 CNS-2 39.1% 32.8% 3.1% 4.8% 3.1% 17.1% 100.0% 2,878 1,914 191 290 197 1,142 6,612 CNS-3 43.5% 28.9% 2.9% 4.4% 3.0% 17.3% 100.0%

33 Estimated Damage Amount by Facility Building and Infrastructure

(Unit: Million NPR) Scenario ground Building Infrastructure Total motion 132,999 590 133,589 WN 99.4% 0.6% 100.0% 371,003 1,903 371,275 CNS-1 99.5% 0.5% 100.0% 761,531 4,144 765,675 CNS-2 99.5% 0.5% 100.0% 1,098,353 6,612 1,104,965 CNS-3 99.6% 0.4% 100.0%

34 Estimated Human Causality Death, Injured, and Evacuee

Scenario Earthquake Occurrence Scene Human Ground Weekend (18:00) Weekday (12:00) Night Casualty Motion Number Ratio Number Ratio Number Ratio WN 2,123 0.1% 2,784 0.1% 3,034 0.1% CNS-1 6,393 0.2% 8,282 0.3% 9,133 0.3% Death CNS-2 15,526 0.6% 19,959 0.7% 22,179 0.8% CNS-3 25,008 0.9% 31,956 1.1% 35,726 1.3% WN 8,316 0.3% 10,905 0.4% 11,880 0.4% CNS-1 25,036 0.9% 32,435 1.2% 35,766 1.3% Injured CNS-2 60,803 2.2% 78,168 2.8% 86,861 3.1% CNS-3 97,940 3.5% 125,152 4.5% 139,914 5.0% WN 279,942 10.0% 285,850 10.3% 279,031 10.0% CNS-1 645,483 23.2% 652,798 23.4% 642,743 23.1% Evacuee CNS-2 1,202,734 43.2% 1,206,530 43.3% 1,196,080 42.9% CNS-3 1,624,032 58.3% 1,619,792 58.1% 1,613,314 57.9% 35