Cleeve's Racing Jumps Ten to Follow

Cleeve’s Racing Jumps Ten to Follow

Copyright Reserved© 2019 Who are Cleeve Racing and how did we start? Cleeve Racing started life as a private members service before being launched commercially in May 2011. Since then we have become one of the UK's best known and best performing services and have shown a proﬁt for 16 consecutive seasons. We were called 'one of the best, if not the best services we have ever reviewed' by the well- respected Geegeez and were recently placed in Smart Betting Club's 'Hall of Fame' and won LB&GR's Oscar for Best UK Tipping Service. We are also rated 'Excellent' by Trustpilot What is the Cleeve Racing Member Service? We're an expert form-based service that focuses exclusively on class 2 and above races because form in higher class races is proven to be more robust. This strategy means that we are a selective service with members receiving selections 2-3 days a week averaging an SP of around 10/1 along with staking advice and best odds/concessions

The Science… We use a custom built algorithm that uses 12 form data points to rate every runner in the ﬁeld, this produces a shortlist that our form team can then focus their analysis on. It helps them determine the betting shape of the race and allows them to produce selections that offer good value. We have a historic a win & place strike rate of 35%+

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Introduction to the Guide

Hello and welcome to our annual 'Jumps Season Ten to Follow'. We have tried to avoid the more obvious choices such as Klassical Dream, Altior, Envoi Allen and Apple's Jade… but couldn't resist Kemboy! There are some that are deﬁnitely a little bit darker than others, which will hopefully offer us a bit better value. Saying that, every horse we have picked could easily turn out to be top class… it's a case of how much of their undoubted potential they can fulﬁl… that, and their ability to stay sound of course. Obviously, you need to make sure each horse is racing under it's optimal conditions before deciding whether to or not to have a bet, but these lists are more about a bit of fun and interest rather than being meant as a serious betting tool. But why don't you set up a tracker on At The Races, Geegeez.com or The Sporting Life and add all ten horses, it will send you an email each time they are declared to run and will be interesting for you to follow their development throughout the season with us. It might also add an extra dimension to your punting knowledge, and who knows… you might just make a few quid to boot.

Enjoy!

Best wishes for the coming season, The Cleeve Team

Age - 4yo(11Apr15 b g)

Trainer - Joseph Patrick O'Brien

Sex - Gelding

Sire - Kapgarde Dam- Niagaria Du Bois

Owner - John P McManus

Fakir D'Oudairies ﬁrst jumped on to our radars with an impressive victory at Cheltenham where he won the Grade Two Triumph Hurdle Trial unchallenged by 13 lengths from the J.P. McManus owned newcomer Brunello with Henderson's hot favourite Adjali back in third. He looked every inch the professional that day jumping well and travelling strongly in front and he just drew further and further away from. It was no real surprise to learn that shortly after this run he was acquired by J. P. He could have taken the easier option at the Festival of running in the Triumph against own age group, but the same connections had the hot favourite Sir Erec in that and it says something of the regard that he was held in that they chose to run him in the much th tougher Supreme Hurdle where he did really well to run 4 to Klassical Dream who is now well fancied for the Champion Hurdle. Always up with the leaders he hd to be bumped long at the top of the hill but he answered every call of J. J. Slevin and responded really th well to keep going and snatch 4 on the line.

nd He followed up with fine 2 at Aintree in the Grade One Doom Bar behind the Triumph winner Pentland Hills and although looking second best from 2 out he again showed his tenacity to make a real scrap of it all the way to the line, only going down by a neck with rd a long looking 6 lengths back to the 3 . His last race of the campaign saw him run a bit flat when 2nd in the Punchestown in Champion 4-Year-Old behind the highly regarded Fusil Raffles but it would be no surprise to find that he was probably feeling the effects of a long tough season, he certainly leaves nothing on the track! He goes well with plenty of cut and connections haven't decided yet whether his future lies over fences or if he will stay over hurdles. But he is reported to be fit and very well and has reportedly strengthened up over the winter. Wherever he goes this admirably tough character should be treated with a great deal of respect. lay.

Age - 6yo(11Mar13 gr g)

Trainer - W P Mullins

Sex - Gelding

Sire - Buck's Boum Dam- Lobelie

Owner - Sullivan Bloodstock Limited

nd Duc Des Genievres was a well-regarded novice hurdler and his best run came when 2 th to Samcro in the Grade One Deloitte Hurdle, he then followed up with a decent 5 in the Ballymore at the 2017 Festival. He immediately showed that he was going to be even better over fences, and started nd his novice chasing campaign by running 2 to the subsequently impressive Cheltenham Festival winner A Plus Tard. He was then a bit disappointing but won his Festival prep convincingly by 15 lengths from a decent yardstick in Joseph O'Brien's Tower Bridge. He romped to wide margin victory in the Arkle and could be called the winner half a mile out, but we need to bear in mind that his task was definitely made a bit easier by the early falls of three of the fancied horses (Kalashnikov, Lalor and Glen Forsa), still he put Gordon Elliott's favourite Hardline well in his place. He next turned up at Punchestown where looking at the bare result he was disappointing when a distant rd 3 in the Grade One Ryanair Chase behind stablemate Chacun Pour Soi and JLT winner Defi du Seuil, but the going would have been much too fast for him that day and he wasn't given a hard race when it was obvious he wasn't letting himself down on the ground…I would pretty much draw a line through that run. He acts particularly well in very soft/heavy and is generally a safe and fast jumper of his fences. He should also be effective over 2m 4f so could develop into a live contender for next year's Ryanair for which he is currently priced as a 16/1 shot, If however he stays in the 2-mile division and instead go for the Champion Chase he will definitely need his optimum conditions to win against the best as he could just lack the toe.

Age - 6yo(07Apr13 br g)

Trainer - Gordon Elliott

Sex - Gelding

Sire - Network Dam- Robbe

Owner - Gigginstown House Stud

Delta Work was a high-class novice hurdler who took the Pertemps at the 2017 Festival, this is the same race that Presenting Percy won in 2017 and it is historically a good indicator for the Gold Cup. The 3 mile novice chasing division was particularly strong last year, but Delta Work was easily best of the Irish being unbeaten in all 3 starts and taking the Grade One Drinmore Chase at Fairyhouse from Le Richeborg, and the key trial for the RSA; the Grade One Neville Hotels Chase at Leopardstown by an impressive 8 lengths from Mortal He was very strongly fancied for the RSA being the subject of heavy morning support and looked much the best horse in the race and the likely winner as he travelled strongly down the hill for the last time still on the bit, he went odds on in running turning into the straight. But his supporters (including me) were ultimately to be disappointed when he was outstayed up the hill by two very good horses in Topofthgame and Santini. He got a bit squeezed jumping the last and looked to be coming back at them on the line, and in retrospect I think that maybe he was travelling too well and got there too soon. Would Davy Russell like the race back… I think that he probably would. He came back to smash an albeit weaker field in the 3-mile Champion Novice at Punchestown where he won as he liked on the bridle by 12 lengths on the bridle. He can make the odd mistake but he's usually a fluent jumper and is a noticeably strong traveller. If he can just brush up his jumping a bit and find a few pounds improvement for another year on his back he can prove a very lively outsider for the Gold Cup and is of some interest at the currently quoted 14/1. He looks as though he might be better suited by the King George and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him turn up there as well.

Age - 5yo(04Apr14 b g)

Trainer - Ben Pauling

Sex – Gelding

Sire - Arcadio – Dam Check The Forecast

Owner - The Aldaniti Partnership

Bright Forecast is one of the darker ones on this list being relatively unexposed with just the 4 runs to his name in his novice season. He looks open to significant improvement in the coming season and is one very much to keep on the right side. He won on his debut over 2 miles at Newbury ridden by Nico de Boinville at odds of 20/1 (not completely unfancied), it looked a deep race and useful form. He looked very green and far from the finished article that day, pulling quite hard and running around a bit. He made a bad mistake at the second last and didn't jump the last at all fluently bit he stayed on determinedly to get up in the last half furlong. He looked much improved for that experience when following up at Leicester where this time he settled and jumped much better making most and in command from 2 out. He again stayed on very strongly and looked likely to improve for a step up in trip. But connections persevered at 2 miles and his next stop was in the Grade Two Rossington Main Supreme Hurdle Trial at Haydock where he was a creditable second to Nicky Henderson's unbeaten Mister Fisher. He looked a little short of pace that day and it was no surprise to see connections opt for the Ballymore over an extra 5 furlongs rather than The Supreme as his Festival target. Not really fancied in what looked to be a strong renewal, he outran his 25/1 odds when rd finishing a good 3 behind the impressive winner City Lights and hot favourite Champ who was considered as many people's banker of the meeting. He was never really placed to win that day but staying on strongly to be closest at the line and he had good horses like Brewinupastorm and Beakstown behind him. He looked a bit inexperienced that day, it was his first try at an extended trip and there looks like there is a fair bit of improvement still to come. He has the build to make a chaser and should stay 3 miles over fences. At this time his future is undecided as connections have not said whether they intend to stay over hurdles or go chasing, but he is quoted at 25/1 for next year's RSA behind current favourite 10/1 Champ.

Age - 6yo(06Apr13 b g)

Trainer - Philip Hobbs

Sex – Gelding

Sire - Voix Du Nord – Dam - Quarvine Du Seuil

Owner - Cheveley Park Stud

Defi du Seuil was on our list of horses to follow last season and we are not about to desert him after he delivered 3 wins from his 6 starts including an impressive festival success in the JLT. The unbeaten 2017 Triumph Hurdle winner opened up his campaign in November at Cheltenham in a competitive Grade 2 Novice Chase. He looked far from the finished article jumping hesitantly throughout and finished last of the 5 runners. However, we saw a completely different horse when he reappeared just over 3 weeks later to take an even hotter race at Exeter… no wonder this game is so hard! He won with plenty in hand beating the joint favourites… subsequent RSA winner Topofthegame and Black Op; seen as two of the most exciting novice chasing prospects for the season. He then went to Cheltenham and ran a close second to Lostintranslation giving him 3lbs, the pair clear of Black Op and he showed that he clearly handled the step up in trip. He turned the tables on that rival back at level weights in the Grade One Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown where he was ridden patiently behind the leader before being produced at the last and quickening into the lead and just having to be kept up to his work to get home. It was virtually a carbon copy at the Festival in the JLT where he never gave supporters a moments concern, jumping safely and travelling well behind the pace, he again was produced late but showed by far the best turn of foot to quicken up the hill to beat Lostintranslationby a length further than he had previously. His final run nd came in the Ryanair Novice at Punchestown where he finished 4 lengths 2 to the very rd highly regarded Chacun Por Soi of Willie Mullins (clear of the 3 ), and given that he had stepped back to 2 miles and been on the go since November it was a very good effort. He currently stands as the 8/1 joint favourite for next year's Ryanair with his Punchestown conqueror and that is surely going to be the season target for him. Given his track and Festival experience, and that Chacun Por Soi is yet to run over 2 ½ miles… I know which I'd rather be on!

Age - 4yo(16Apr15 b g)

Trainer - W P Mullins

Sex – Gelding

Sire - Saddex – Dam Blue Aster

Owner - John P McManus

Blue Sari is also unexposed having had only the two runs over hurdles last season plus he didn't make his debut until the end of January which is usually an indication the he is top, or near the top of Willie Mullins bumper crop. A fine second in the Festival Bumper he looks to be the type that will progress plenty given another year on his back He made his debut at Gowran Park and absolutely spread eagled a field at Gowran Park, showing visible acceleration in soft ground to go clear of the favourite who was wearing the green and gold, with the rest of the field strung out like washing. He was quickly purchased after by J.P. McManus for an undisclosed sum (I'm guessing he was not cheap!) and he rapidly moved towards the head of antepost markets for Cheltenham. His next assignment was the Weatherby's Champion Bumper ridden by Barry Geraghty and he was the subject of very strong pre-race support which saw him go off the 7/2 second favourite. He finished a close second to the long-time antepost favourite Cheveley Park's unbeaten Envoi Allen, an effort that was made to look better than it did on the track if you take into account Envoi Allen was a year older and more experienced being having had 3 starts. That one could go chasing but whatever happens looks sure to be stepped up in trip probably to 3 miles, and he is currently antepost clear favourite for the 2 mile 5 furlong Ballymore at 10/1. Blue Sari seems likely to stay at 2 miles as he might have a bit more speed about him and he clearly has claims to be one of the leading 2 mile novice hurdlers of the season He is quoted as joint favourite for next year's Supreme and it will be interesting to see how his early runs go as he progresses from maiden to graded company.

Age - 5yo(22Feb14 b m)

Trainer - Alan King

Sex – Mare

Sire - Jeremy – Dam Glancing

Owner - Dingwall, Farrell, Hornsey & Murray

The Glancing Queen a daughter of Jeremy started off her career with an impressive victory in a quite a deep mares bumper at Cheltenham where she travelled strongly and ran on really well to pick them up halfway up the hill and win going away… the placed horses were all previous winners so her performance could be marked up. She rd reappeared a month later in a Listed Bumper at Ascot where she finished a decent 3 to the unbeaten Eden de Houx of David Pipe's, she looked to be travelling best turning into the straight and possibly got bogged down a bit in the heavy ground. She was given a 3-month break (she may even have suffered a slight setback at Ascot) th before last year's Festival but ran a promising 5 in the Champion Bumper behind Envoi Allen and Blue Sari when not getting the run of the race at all. She was travelling as well as anything just behind the leaders going down the hill, but the field bunched as they turned into the straight and she lost her position at a crucial stage as they closed in front of her causing her to get tightened up and lose momentum when she ran into heels and had nowhere to go. Wayne Hutchinson realised that the leaders had flown and the race was gone so he wasn't hard on her, but she still ran on strongly under hands and heels up the hill to finish th 5 , being closest at the line. She made no mistake at Aintree when she took the Grade 2 Bumper 3 weeks later. She tanked through the race that day, travelling with zest and racing prominently and stayed on very strongly all the way down the straight for pressure to defeat the Willie Mullins favourite Minella Melody and never really looked as if she would get beaten. She looks likely to stay further and seems to handle any ground. She will be particularly hard to beat if kept against her own sex, but can also make her mark if tried in open novice company.

Age - 4yo(26Feb15 b g)

Trainer - Nicky Henderson

Sex – Gelding

Sire - Motivator – Dam Elle Galante

Owner - Owners Group 031

Pentland Hills was a rare example of an unbeaten Nicky Henderson novice hurdler that went under the radar.This ex-flat recruit was previously trained by Chris Wall and was the winner of 2 of his starts as a 3-year-old achieving a rating of 81, but he has improved massively for a set of hurdles and it looks like there is more to come. He made his belated debut in a lowly Class 4 at Plumpton, but was really impressive in beating the odds-on favourite The Flying Sofa who was a winner already with solid form in the book and provided a decent yard stick for the form of the race, Pentland Hills travelled strongly and jumped well to come home 14 lengths clear still on the bridle. Just 3 weeks later he was allowed to go off at a generous 20/1 in the Triumph behind the ill-fated favourite Sir Erec. He was put to sleep towards the rear of the field by Nico de Boinville but was always travelling and jumped well and crept into the race as it quickened round the turn. He joined the leaders still pretty much on the bridle between the last two flights and took it up jumping the last, quickly putting the race to bed and winning in pretty authoritative fashion from Coeur Sublime and Gardens of Babylon, form that has a strong collateral look to it.

rd He then had his 3 race in just 7 weeks when following up at Aintree in the Grade One th Doom Bar Hurdle. He beat the Supreme 5 (and also in the list) Fakir de D'Oudaries and the impressive Fred Winter winner Band of Outlaws, again ridden confidently he looked like he was always holding the tough second, but showed good battling qualities when that one rallied to throw down a persistently challenge (had the kitchen sink pretty much thrown at him!). To win two Grade one juveniles in 3 races over a little over 6 weeks is some achievement, and he jumps and travels like a natural. Given normal improvement from 4 to 5 he must be considered a leading contender for this year's Champion Hurdle, although he is going to find it tougher now he lines up against older horses for the first time.

Age - 5yo(14Apr14 b g)

Trainer - W P Mullins

Sire - No Risk At All

Dam - Idaho Falls

Owner - Cheveley Park Stud

Allaho was an expensive purchase from France by Cheveley Park and was put under the care of Willie Mullins. He made his debut in a bumper at Leopardstown and was th clearly expected but 'disappointed' ﬁnishing 4 . He was a bit keen early on and although got his head in front he seemed tapped for toe in the straight. He was given a couple of months and it was a mark of the regard he was held in at home that he reappeared in a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Clonmel over 3 miles which was a big jump both in class and distance. Despite of this he again went off favourite, travelling strongly through the race, he went with enthusiasm and jumped slickly apart from a mistake at the second last. He took it up from the more experienced Minella Indo at the last and quickly put him in his place to win by 4 lengths going away. He re-opposed that rival in the Albert Bartlett at the Festival but had the tables turned rd when he could only manage 3 place behind Minella Indo who went off a 50/1 shot (clearly much too big in hindsight!). Allaho again travelled and jumped well making ground from the rear coming down the hill for the ﬁnal time and joined the leaders turning into the straight. It may have been down to the testing nature of the track that found him out and he just couldn't quicken down to the last and stayed on at the one pace.

He turned crossed swords for the third time with Minella Indo at Punchestown in the Champion Novice 3 miler and again went off as favourite which probably tells you more about the reputation of Willie Mullins than bare form! Still he was expected to be better suited by the track. He raced more prominently and again jumped really well. 2 hurdles out he looked to be going by far the best and turning into the straight looked the winner, but Minella Indo and Rachel Blackmore collared him going to the last and went a couple of lengths clear although Allaho was coming back at the line. Maybe he got a bit lonely in front? I think he will improve for fences and he is quoted to the fore of both the JLT and the RSA markets I think the preference might just be to go for the former given his Albert Bartlett experience and the fact that his nemesis Minella Indo looks certain to go for that!

Age - 7yo(09May12 b g)

Trainer- W P Mullins

Sex – Gelding

Sire - Arcadio – Dam Check The Forecast

Owner - Supreme Horse Racing Club & Brett T Graham & K Sharp

Kemboy (sigh), the one that got away… we were originally involved in the syndication of Kemboy and were later offered the chance to buy a share at the end of his novice chasing season but didn't take it!

th A decent novice hurdler whose best run saw him finish 5 in the 2017 Ballymore and achieved a rating of 142, but he has improved markedly for fences and a change of tactics to become the leading chaser of last season and apple of Supreme Racing's eye. He is clear favourite for next year's Gold Cup and will take some beating as he still doesn't look as though he has quite finished improving, and now Willie Mullins has finally broken his duck in the race it wouldn't be at all surprising if he ran up a sequence! His early form over fences was characterised by his seeming habit of putting in a serious mistake which saw him either fall or significantly damage his chances, this happened in 4 of his 5 races in his first season over fences. But the potential was clearly there, and he could be in no better hands to improve his jumping and bring the best out of him. In his second season as a chaser he duly fully blossomed winning 4 of his 5 starts in the campaign, ironically the only blip coming when he unseated Danny Mullins at the first in the Gold Cup when appearing to jump into the back of Presenting Percy, the race went on to be taken by his stablemate Al Boum Photo He made up for that disappointment in no uncertain fashion when demolishing his field in the Grade One Betway Bowl at Aintree where he beat Gold Cup 5th Clan des Obeaux by 9 lengths. He seemed to really enjoy the forcing tactics that were used that day and looked the winner from a long way out. He stamped his place at the top of the ratings a month later when he went to Punchestown to take the Irish Gold Cup where he beat Al Boum Photo convincingly and convinced Ruby Walsh that the moment was right to retire from the saddle… and I think I've seen Ruby smile more in the last 6 months than the previous 6 years! He starts the season the highest rated horse in training and clear favourite for next year's Gold Cup and as I said at the start, he might have a bit more improvement still to come. Page 12 Copyright Reserved© 2019 | Cleeve Racing