Student Mobility in Georgia Establishing Patterns and Predictors
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Student Mobility in Georgia Establishing Patterns and Predictors Pascael Beaudette June 2014 This page intentionally left blank. Executive Summary Each school year, thousands of Georgia • As the percentage of Students with students transfer schools for reasons other Disabilities (SWD) and Free/Reduced-Price than grade promotion. Student mobility not Lunch (FRL) students increased, a school’s only affects the individual student but also the churn rate also increased. teacher and students in his or her classes. This • As the percentage of gifted students and the report utilizes data from the new statewide percentage of English Language Learner longitudinal data system, GA•AWARDS, to (ELL) students increased, the school’s churn assess mobility patterns in Georgia public rate decreased. schools during the 2012-13 academic year. • The percentage of minority students, the region of the state, and the presence of To count as “mobile” for the purposes of military bases did not have a statistically this analysis, students must have entered or significant relationship with school churn withdrawn from a school between October rates when holding constant other factors. 2 and May 1. October 2 is the Georgia Department of Education’s (GaDOE) fall At the student level, of the 1.7 million public enrollment count date. May 1 represents a school students in the 2012-13 academic year, consistent date that is prior to the end of the approximately 176,000 students, or 10.3%, school year in all Georgia districts. Students were mobile during the school year. Among who withdrew and reentered the same school mobile students, 59.0% transferred to another within seven days are not counted as mobile. public school within Georgia. Regression analysis on the likelihood an individual student To assess mobility at the school and district was mobile finds: level, the Governor’s Office of Student Achievement (GOSA) calculated a churn rate • Students who qualified for FRL were 3.9% for each school and district, which represents more likely to be mobile than non-FRL the number of student entries and exits students. during the school year divided by the number • Differences in student mobility by race/ of students in the school on the Georgia ethnicity were minimal once other factors, Department of Education’s fall count date of such as FRL status, were held constant. October 2. In 2012-13, the average school • SWD were 1.3% more likely to be mobile churn rate was 23.0%, but the median rate was than non-SWD. 16.9%. The rates ranged from 1.1% (Newton • Gifted students were 11.3% less likely to be County Theme School at Ficquett) to 756.3% mobile than non-gifted students. (DeKalb Alternative School). At the district level, the average churn rate was 17.5%, and While this study provides information on the median rate was 14.8%. patterns in student mobility, many questions remain regarding the effects of student mobility. Controlling for the region of the state, the In particular, future studies should examine presence of a military base, and demographic the relationship between student mobility and characteristics of the districts, regression analysis academic achievement and whether mobile on school churn rates finds: students are moving to better, worse, or comparable schools. Student Mobility in Georgia: Establishing Patterns and Predictors i Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................i Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................................iv Introduction ......................................................................................................................................1 Data and Methodology .....................................................................................................................2 School and District Churn Rates .......................................................................................................3 Churn Rate Formula ....................................................................................................................3 State-Level Churn Rate ................................................................................................................3 Churn Rate by RESA ...................................................................................................................5 Churn Rates and Student Demographics ......................................................................................6 School Churn Rates and Gifted Students .....................................................................................7 Regression Analysis on School Churn Rates .................................................................................8 Student-Level Mobility in Georgia ..................................................................................................12 Mobility by Month ....................................................................................................................12 Mobility by Race/Ethnicity ........................................................................................................13 Mobility among Students Who Qualify for FRL ........................................................................14 Other Student Characteristics ....................................................................................................15 Student-Level Regression Analysis ..............................................................................................16 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................17 Endnotes .........................................................................................................................................18 Appendix A: District Churn Rates ...................................................................................................20 Appendix B: School Churn Rates ....................................................................................................25 Appendix C: Schools Dropped from the Regression ........................................................................67 Appendix D: Results from Student-Level Model .............................................................................69 Student Mobility in Georgia: Establishing Patterns and Predictors ii Table of Figures and Tables Table of Figures Figure 1: RESA Map ........................................................................................................................ 5 Figure 2: Churn Rates and FRL ........................................................................................................6 Figure 3: Churn Rates and Percent Gifted .........................................................................................7 Figure 4: Mobility Timing ...............................................................................................................12 Figure 5: Total Population and Mobile Population by Race/Ethnicity ............................................13 Figure 6: Mobility by Race/Ethnicity and FRL Status ....................................................................14 Figure 7: Mobility by other Subgroups ............................................................................................15 Figure 9: Increased Likelihood of Mobility Due to FRL Status ........................................................16 Figure 8: Substantive Effects of Select Demographic Variables ........................................................16 Table of Tables Table 1: Churn Rate by RESA ...........................................................................................................5 Table 2: Geographic Distribution of High and Low Poverty Schools .................................................6 Table 3: Summary Statistics at the School Level ................................................................................9 Table 4: Regression Results at the School Level ...............................................................................10 Table 5: Top Reasons for Mobility ...................................................................................................12 Student Mobility in Georgia: Establishing Patterns and Predictors iii Acknowledgments The Governor’s Office of Student Achievement (GOSA) would like to thank Dr. Moshe Haspel, Director of Research at Emory University’s Center for Community Partnerships for his technical assistance and advice throughout the course of this project. Dr. Haspel, Emory University’s Center for Community Partnerships, and Neighborhood Nexus were vital in the creation of the map of district churn rates and the interactive education data map. Student Mobility in Georgia: Establishing Patterns and Predictors iv Introduction Each school year, thousands of Georgia must determine how best to serve new students transfer schools for reasons other incoming students and manage the effects than grade promotion. Student mobility not of changing classroom composition. Stable only affects the individual student but also the students must deal with the classroom teacher and students in his or her classes. This disruption as mobile students enter and exit, report utilizes data from the new statewide and they often experience a slower pace of longitudinal data system, GA•AWARDS, to instruction