Tanzania: Appraisal of the Tabora Rural Development Project

ReportNo. 1360-TA FILECOPY Tanzania:Appraisal of the TaboraRural Development Project Public Disclosure Authorized

April 8, 1977 EasternAfrica RegionalOffice GeneralAgriculture Division FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized

Public Disclosure Authorized Document of the World Bank

This document hasa restricteddistribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosedwithout World Bankauthorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS 1/

SDR 1.00 Tanzania Shillings (TSh) 9.66

US$1.00 = Tanzania Shillings (TSh) 8.30

TSh 1.00 = US$0.12

El 1.00 = US$1.65

GOVERNMENTAND PARASTATALS FISCAL YEAR

July 1 - June 30

WEIGHT AND MEASURES

2 1 hectare (ha) = 10,000 m = 2.47 acres

I kilometer (km) = 0.62 miles 2 1 sq. kilometer (km ) = 0.39 sq. miles = 100 ha.

1 kilogram (kg) = 2.20 pounds

1 liter (1) = 0.26 U.S. gallons

1,000 kg = 1 metric ton = 0.98 long tons

1/ The Tanzania Shilling is officially valued at a fixed rate of 9.66 TSh to the SDR. The US Dollar/Tanzania Shilling exchange rate is therefore subject to change. Conversions in this report were made at US$1.00 to TSh 8.30 which is close to the recent average exchange rate. C-OROFFICIAL USE ONLY

ABBREVIATIONS

ADS - Agricultural Development Serwice of the World Bank AFO = Assistant Field Officer CBPP = Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia CCM = Chama cha Mapinduzi (the sole political party of Tanzania) 1/ Comworks - Ministry of Works DDC = District Development Corporations DDD - District Development Director DFO - District Forest Officer FD Forest Division FTX = Farmer's Training Centers GAPEX - General Agriculture Products Export Corporation Kilimo Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives LRD - Land Resources Division (of UK Ministry of Overseas Development) Maji = Ministry of Water, Energy and Minerals miombo - Woodland of Brachystegia and Julbernadia spp. NBC = National Bank of Commerce NMC = National Milling Corporation ODM - Ministry of Overseas Development PMO - Prime Ministers Office RADO - Regional Agricultural Development Officer RDD - Regional Development Director RE Regional Engineer RPO Regional Planning Officer RTC Regional Trading Company RWD - Regional Water Department SFOs - Senior Field Officers TARECU - Tabora Region Cooperative Union TAT - Tobacco Authority of Tanzania TCA = Tanzania Cotton Authority TU4C = Tauzania Livestock Marketing Company TPL - Tanganyika Packers Limited TRCU = Tabora Region Cooperative Union TRDB = Tanzania Rural Development Bank TTG = Tabora Tobacco Grower's Cooperative Society ULV = Ultra low volume VIC = Veterinary Investigation Center VPD = Village Production Committee vpd = Vehicles per day WMP = Water Master Plans

1/ The Tanganyika African National Union (TANU), the former party of the mainland, was merged with the Afro-Shirazi Party in February, 1977 to form CCM.

Thisdocument hu a fetricted distributionU my beud by recipientsonly in the perfonmanse of their officialdutis. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosedwithout World Bank authoriatlon. I TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Paxe No.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ...... * ** . *..*.*.. i-iii

1. INTRODUCTION ...... *s...... ****... I

II. BACKGROUND...... 3

The Economy of Tanzania ...... 3 The Rural and Agricultural Sector ...... 3 Regional Government and Administration ...... 4 Villagization and Cooperatives ...... 5 Infrastructure and Services ...... **... *....S.* 6 Project Implementation Capacity ...... 8

III. THE PROJECT AREA ...... * 9

Location, Ecology & Economy ...... o...... o 9 Administration, Infrastructure and Services ... o...... 10

IV. THE PROJECT ...... o ...... 12

Ao Brief Description ...... o- ...... o...... 12 B. Detailed Features .....o..... o ..... *...... *..*... 13 Crop Development ...... -...... O.... 13 Livestock Development . .. o...... 14 Water Supply and Planning ...... 14 Road Maintenance and Reconstruction ...... 15 Reafforestation *...... **.**....*...... *...... 16 Land-Use Planning ...... 16 Project Implementation, Evaluation and Regional Planning ...... o..... 17

This report is based on the findings of two appraisal missions to Tanzania. The first mission, in November 1975, comprised: J.H. Cleave (Chief of Mission), D. Bovet (Roads), P. Tamboli (Agriculture), Mrs. J. Curling (Financial Analyst) (IDA), H. Kelly (Livestock) (Consultant) and was accompanied in part by Ms. T. Sato (Loan Officer). The second mission, in March 1976, comprised J.H. Cleave (Chief of Mission), H. Kaneda (Small Industry), J. Kozel (Water) (IDA); and P. Wood (Forestry) (Consultant). The Fuelwood model (Annex 7) was prepared by G. Kutcher (IDA). Mrs. C. Summers assisted in processing and checking the report at all stages. -2-

Page No.

C. Project Costs ...... 17 D, Financing ...... a * * **...... 20 E. Procure lent...... 21 F. Disbursement ...... 22 G. Accounts and Audits ...... , 22

V. ORGANIZATION AND IMPLEMENTATION ...... 23

Project Coordination, Monitoring, and Evaluation ...... 23 Project Implementation ...... 24 Village Participation ...... 26

VI. PRODUCTION, OTHER BENEFITS, AND IMPACT ...... 26

Crop Agriculture and Livestock ...... * ...... 26 Fuelwood ...... 28 Roads ...... 28 Water Supplies ...... 29 Overall Project Benefits ...... 29 Government Cash Flow ...... 29 Ecological Effects ...... *...... 30

VII. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ...... 30

Economic and Social Rate of Return ...... 30 Sensitivity Analysis ...... 31 Employment and Distribution of Benefits ...... 31

VIII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 32 ANNEXES

1. Tabora - Background,Agriculture and AgriculturalOrganization

2. Crop Development

3. Livestock Development

Appendix 1: Ministry of Agriculture- VeterinaryDivision: Regional Staff

Appendix 2: Village LivestockFarms - Mixed Farming Areas (Nzega and Igunga)

Appendix 3: Village Livestock Farms - New Developments(Miombo Zone)

4. Rural Water Supply Component

Appendix 1: Population Projections,Tabora Region

Appendix 2: Regional Water Department Tabora - OrganizationChart, WB 16561

Appendix 3: Water Master Plan Draft Terms of Reference

Appendix 4: Village Population to be Supplied with Water, 1975-80 and Unit Costs

Appendix 5: Village Water Supplies - Estimate of Annual Operation and Maintenance Expenses

Appendix 6: Tentative Time Schedule for Water Supply Component

Appendix 7: Projectionof Village Populationwithout Water Supply

Appendix 8: Estimate of Capital Cost for Rural Water Supplies in Period 1980-1990

5. Roads Component

Appendix 1: Organizationof Roads Services and Road Conditions,Chart, WB 16309

Appendix 2: Draft Terms of Reference for Technical Assistance For Roads Maintenance & Improvement

Appendix 3: Road Component Personnel and Equipment

Appendix 4: Proposed Tabora Region Roads Organization,Chart WB 16310

Appendix 5: Road Design Standard

Appendix 6: Road BettermentUnit Capacities

Appendix 7: Road BettermentUnit Development -2-

Appendix 8: Road Component: Benefits

Appendix 9: Summary of Costs

Appendix 10: Roads Component Implementation Schedule

6. Fuelwood Production

Appendix 1: Areas of Forest in the Tabora Block (From Schultz Inventory, 1973)

Appendix 2: Growth Rates in Simbo and Urumwa Trial Plots

Appendix 3: Estimates of Village Wood Demand and Supply

Appendix 4: Organization of Fuelwood Planting

Appendix 5: Recommended Procedure for Measuring Fuel Consumption in Tobacco Curing Barns

7. Fuelwood Production: A Model of the Timber Investment Decision

8. Terms of Reference for Preparation of a Regional Land-Use and Capability Master Plan

Appendix 1: Implementation Schedule and Disbursement Schedule

9. Project Organization, Monitoring, and Evaluation

Appendix 1: Project Headquarters Staff Qualifications and Terms of Reference

Appendix 2: Monitoring and Evaluation: Work Schedule

Appendix 3: Project Implementation Schedule

10. Project Cost Estimates

Table 1: Summary by Component

Table 2: Project Secretariat

Table 3: Agricultural Development Component

Table 4: Livestock

Table 4a: Ministry of Agriculture - Veterinary Division - Tsetse Survey & Control

Table 4b: Ministry of Agriculture - Veterinary Division - Regional Livestock Development Services

Table 5: Water Supply -3-

Table 6: Roads Component

Table 7: Forestry

Table 8: Summary by Type of Investment

Table 9: Vehicle Costs (excludingRoads)

Table 10: Equipment Costs (excludingRoads component)

Table 11: Buildings & Civil Works

Table 12: Technical AssistanceCost

Table 13: Local Salaries

Table 14: Vehicle & Equipment Costs: Roads Component

11. Schedule of Estimated Disbursementof IDA Funds

12. GovernmentCash Flow

13. Economic Costs and Benefits and SensitivityAnalysis

MAP: Administrative Divisions - Roads - Population - IBRD 12307

Major Crops - Agro-Economic Zones - Rainfall - IBRD 12308R

Livestock and Tsetse Infested Areas - IBRD 12309

Forest Reserves - IBRD 12516

TANZANIA

TABORARURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

SUMMARYAND CONCLUSIONS

i. Tanzania's development strategy puts emphasis on increased agricultural production by smallholders in villages, and seeks to encourage local involvement in planning and implementation. In its approach to these objectives, Government has decentralized its organization, giving the 20 Regions powers to plan and carry out development programs and allowing considerable autonomy in administration. The Regional structure is now fairly well established, although still understaffed and typically short of funds. However, many villages have only recently been formed and are inadequately planned, and, although given strong legal powers, are largely untried as the focus of development. Moreover, Government is in the process of instituting major organizational changes effecting marketing, crop-financing, input supply and credit channels, extension services, training and education, and it will require time to carry these changes through to a settled stage.

ii. The aim of the proposed Project is to initiate a new rural-development program in the largest Region in the country, Tabora, utilizing and strengthening the Regional structure, but adopting a pilot approach to most of its components. It would establish pilot agricultural, livestock, and fuelwood development programs based on villages, and would provide infrastructure and planning which would establish a basis for the Region to handle later investments routed either through another Regional project or through components of national programs. The Project would involve direct agricultural investments in only some 42 villages (with some 75,000 people) mostly in the more densely populated NE Districts of the Region where control of grazing is an urgent necessity and intensification of crop production is needed. It would, however, supplement and complement ongoing Projects in the Region (which are partly IDA-financed) so that, in combination, IDA Projects would directly involve some one-third of the Region's 380 villages whilst the Project's water, and road investments, and planning activities, would affect the whole Region. iii. The Project would provide (a) pilot approaches to intensified crop and livestock production including new inputs, revamped extension services, storage, cattle-dips and training; (b) a pilot reafforestation program to provide fuel especially for tobacco-curing; (c) a start on a low-cost village water supply program; (d) capacity to maintain and improve both network and village access roads; (e) a Land Use/Capability Plan, a Water Master Plan, a tsetse-fly survey, and a strengthening of the village land planning unit, to provide a framework for Project and future investment in the Region; and (f) specialist personnel and radio communications to strengthen Regional capacity to implement the Project, and staff, equipment and funds to monitor Project progress and evaluate impact, and to assist in the planning of further developments in the Region. - ii -

iv. The Project would be integrated into the existing Regional organization and mostly would be-carried out by the Regional functional units, suitably strengthened. It would be under the direction of the Regional Planning Officer operating through, and with the guidance of, a Project secretariat comprising a Project Coordinator, a Financial Controller and an Evaluation Officer and their staff appointed under the Project. A Project Expeditor in Dar es Salaam would improve liaison and assist procurement. Overall responsibility for policy decisions would rest with the Regional Development Committee chaired by the Regional Development Director.

v. The total Project cost over 5 years is estimated to be US$23.5 million. A grant from the United Kingdom Overseas Development Programme equivalent to about US$5.6 million would be applied to the road maintenance and reconstruction component, and to the land-use survey, to cover 76% of the cost of these components. An IDA Credit of US$7.2 million and a Canadian credit of Can $5.0 million are proposed to cover 74% of the total costs of the remainder of the Project. These would meet the foreign exchange costs and 25% of local currency costs. The Canadian Credit would be administered by IDA. The proposed Credits would be on standard IDA terms to Government. The remaining US$5.9 million (25%) of the Project would be met by the Govern- ment of Tanzania and by villagers. Key conditions of the IDA Credit include the continuation of adequate budgetary allocations to ongoing operations in Tabora; satisfactory arrangements for the staffing and supervision of audits of village cooperatives; and agreement on the qualifications and experience of Project Secretariat staff prior to their appointment, which would also be a condition of Credit effectiveness. vi. Procurement under the IDA and Canadian Credits of vehicles and spares (US$1.0 million), farm inputs (US$1.9 million), materials for water supplies (US$2.5 million), and radio and other equipment (US$0.5 million), would be by international competitive bidding (ICB). Civil works (US$1.2 million) would be by contractors following ICB, with a 7-1/2% preference on local bids. The design and construction of water supplies (US$2.5 million) would be by force account. The Water Master Plan would be carried out by consultants selected in accordance with the Bank Group's guidelines. In order to ensure full operation of the Project in the 1977/78 crop season, Government has been encouraged to prepare contracts for key staff, some vehicles, and housing in advance of Board presentation. If necessary, the Association will consider authorizing award of contracts and retroactive financing on these items. Procurement for the roads component would be in accordance with UK guidelines and the Land-Use Planning would be carried out by the Land Resources Division of the UK Ministry of Overseas Development. vii. The Project would increase production of cotton, groundnuts, grains and beef in the affected villages and would, consequently, enhance incomes and nutrition. It would result in reduction of fuel costs in tobacco-curing; in savings in vehicle operating costs, reduced crop spoilage and direct production benefits from road improvement; and in health and production benefits from improved water supplies. Benefits to the ecology are to be expected from grazing control, reafforestation and land planning under the Project. However, the greatest returns are probably those which would accrue - iii - to future investmentssupported by the technical,planning and organizational experience of the Project and the enhanced implementationcapacity of the Region. An IER in the range 10-20% over 20 years is estimated for the combined components for which benefits can be quantified.The Project is sensitive to slow implementationand if benefits occurred 2 years later than expected but costs arose as scheduled, an IER of 17% (the point estimate) would fall to 10%. In its short-term perspective,the Project has, therefore, some risks, and sound management, for which provision is made, is the key to its success. viii. Bank Group assistance to the agriculturalsector in Tanzania has included IDA Credits totallingUS$117.1 million and IBRD Loans for US$30 million for eleven agriculturalProjects and one Regional Rural Development Project -- this in Kigoma Region, adjacent to Tabora. AgriculturalProjects have included cotton, tobacco, tea, maize and beef production,and cashew, tobacco and sugar processing. Lack of experiencedmanagement and limited planning capacity, as well as procurement problems and the effects of the acceleratedvillagization program and other changes in the institutional environmenthave been major problems leading to slow implementation. Gov- ernment is addressingthese problems which have also been taken into account in the design of this Project. ix. The Project is suitable for an IDA Credit of US$7.2 million to the Government of Tanzania.

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

I. INTRODUCTION

1.01 Tanzania has made the development of its rural sector the corner- stone of its overall development strategy, and in its approach to this objective, Government has decentralized the administrative organization into 20 Regions and has undertaken a program to move the entire rural population into villages. The Villagization Program, seen as a step towards fully collec- tivised ujamaa villages which are the ultimate objective, was accelerated in 1974/75 creating considerable problems which will need close planning attention to solve. In the longer run, however, villages are expected to provide economies of scale in delivering inputs and social services and to increase the participation of the rural people in the development process. Both the Region and the village are central to the implementation of any Project in rural Tanzania for which two routes are currently being pursued: the one, the multi-sectoral development of the entire Region and the other using the Region as the implementing entity for components of nation-wide agricultural development programs.

1.02 The aim of this Project is to initiate a Region-wide rural development program with emphasis on production. It is oriented both to supplement and complement ongoing developments in the Region (which are partly IDA funded), and to develop the capacity of the Region to handle further investments routed either through a further Regional project or through components of national programs. The Project period will allow time for the area to settle down following villagization and the upheaval of anticipated changes in the cooperative organization. It makes provision for infrastructure the need for which, in part, arises from the villagization program, and provides a planning and pilot development program needed as a basis for future investments. The aim would be to start to put Tabora in a position that in about a decade all villages would be engaged in cash crop production with water, access roads, storage, village management, a cooperative structure, and agricultural extension services all in place and with development on both the intensive and extensive margins proceeding against the background of sound land-use and water development plans.

1.03 Tabora Region comprises four Districts: two are relatively densely populated and the inhabitants are principally cattle keepers but are also engaged in a variety of crop production; the other two Districts are little developed because of tsetse infestation and in these settlement is confined to the lines of communication. The Bank Group already has investments in tobacco (since 1970) and maize (just effective) in these last two Districts: the focus of village development under this Project would be in the two heavily populated Districts. - 2 -

1.04 Previous Bank Group assistance to the agricultural sector in Tanzania has included IDA credits totalling US$117.1 million and IBRD loans for US$30 million for eleven agriculturaland one Rural Develop- ment Project. Agriculturalprojects comprise one for agriculturalcredit, three for livestock and one each for tobacco, tea, coffee, sugar, cashew nuts and maize, and a tobacco processing project which became effective in February, 1977. The Rural Development Project is for the Kigoma Region to the west of and adjacent to Tabora: it became effective in 1974. Credits have also been provided for agricultural training (1971), feeder road development (1972) and highway maintenance (1974).

1.05 Project implementationhas generally tended to make a slow start. Particular problems have been the dearth of experiencedmanagement and limited planning capacity; frequent and inadequatelyplanned changes in the institutional structure;a shortage of immediatelyavailable trained technical manpower; and procurement problems with spare parts, cement and imported equipment. All the smallholderProjects (cotton, tobacco, tea and the Kigoma Rural Development Project) have been affected by the acceleratedvillagization program. Although the first Livestock Project was reasonably successful, the second is progressing slowly. The Tea Project has encountered serious difficultieswith inadequateand high-cost services and lack of management control while weak management coupled with technical problems due to villagization and a change in relative crop prices is adversely affecting the Geita Cotton Project which is being reviewed. The Kilombero Sugar Project and the Cashew Project are progressingwell and are expected to be completed on time. The Kigoma Rural Development Project is behind schedule due to delays in recruiting senior staff, problems with procurementof materials and implementationof civil works, and slow village planning (para. 2.23). Effec- tiveness of the National Maize Project was delayed by problems in coordinating co-financing.

1.06 The proposed Project arose from a request by Government following preparationof the Kigoma Project and was prepared by the Government with the assistance of the Bank's Resident Mission in East Africa (RMEA).1/ This report is based on the findings of an appraisal mission to Tanzania in November 1975 consisting of Messrs. J.H. Cleave, D. Bovet, P. Tamboli, Mrs. J. Curling (IDA), and H. Kelly (Consultant),in part accompaniedby Ms. T. Sato (Loan Officer), and a follow-up mission in March 1976 consisting of Messrs. J.H. Cleave, H. Kaneda, J. Kozel (IDA) and P. Wood (Consultant).

1/ A small-scale farm implementsproduction componentwas included in the request, and was appraised but has been omitted from the Project. Investment in this area is possibly justified, but needs further investigationparticularly of the market potential and the appropriate ownership/managementstructure. It is thereforeproposed that it be reconsideredas part of the Small-ScaleIndustry Development program under the Second National Sites and Services Project, which includes Tabora town. The project is expected to be ready for Board presentation about mid-1977. II. BACKGROUND

The Economy of Tanzania

2.01 Tanzania has a total population of about 15.3 million (mid-1976) which is increasing at about 2.8% a year. The country has a land area of about 880,900 km and thus has a low average population density of a little over 17 km . Average per capita GNP for 1974 is estimated at US$130 p.a., but in some rural areas, the per capita income does not exceed US$50/year. The real growth rate of the economy was about 4-1/2% p.a. between 1969 and 1974, lagging behind the targets for the second five-year plan for that period mainly due to the failure of the main agriculturalcrops to reach planned projections. Tanzania has been badly hit by the recent dramatic increase in oil prices although export prices for a range of agricultural crops have recently improved.

The Rural and AgriculturalSector

2.02 About 94% of the population live in rural areas and 90% of the economicallyactive population is engaged in agriculture,which contributes roughly 40% of Tanzania's GNP, half accounted for by subsistenceproduction. Some 80% of exports are from agriculture,mainly cotton, coffee, sisal and cashew. Sisal is grown on estates; the rest are smallholdercrops, as are tobacco, maize and rice.

2.03 Until the villagizationprogram, most productionwas concentrated on scattered family smallholdings,cultivated by hand, and producing both family subsistence and cash crops. Census data suggest that over 80% of holdings were less than 2 ha although this figure is believed to be low. Plots were small and irregular,but, in general, fragmentationwas not a problem. The objectives of villagizationare political, social and productive: to improve local participationin government, to facilitate provision of social and economic services and to aid the introductionof new techniques and the distributionof modern inputs into agriculture. Ulti- mately, in a fully developed "ujamaa" village, it is intended that cultivation will be collective. However, a satisfactoryincentive system still has to be developed for such collective farming and currently individual smallholdersmay cultivate their own plots side-by-side("shoulder to shoulder" is the Tanzanian expression)within village blocks. It is estimated that some 75% of the rural population are now settled in villages averaging between 350-400 families.

2.04 There have been several recent important developmentsaffecting the rural sector. In 1972, the Regional and District administrationsin Tanzania were reorganizedand strengthened,principally to improve the implementationof rural developmentprograms and to increase local involvement. Under this decentralizedsystem, the Regions were authorized to plan - 4-

and implement their own development programs and were allowed a high degree of autonomy in administration. Then, in 1974, a new boost was given to the creation of villages, whilst under the Villages and Ujamaa Villages Act of 1975, the elected village council has been given substantial powers to direct and control local development (see para. 2.10), and the village now provides the basic framework for agricultural production and marketing. Par- allel with these developments, the principles of an approach to agricultural and rural development proposed by the Bank's Agricultural sector study were accepted by Government. This envisages the nation-wide development of a technical base for agricultural and rural improvements and the continuous upgrading of support services for sub-projects which would be implemented and planned in the Regions but given technical direction and coordinated in both time and sequence from the center.

Regional Government and Administration

2.05 The regional political head is the Regional Commissioner who has the rank of Cabinet Minister. He is a member of the National Assembly and of the National Executive Committee of the party, Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM). His counterpart at the District level is the Area Commissioner who is the CCM District Secretary, Chairman of the District Development and Planning Committee, and a member of the District Development Council. All Commis- sioners are appointed by the President.

2.06 The head of the regional civil service is the Regional Development Director (RDD) who has the equivalent rank of a Principal Secretary in a Central Ministry. He is assisted by a Regional Planning Officer (RPO) and the heads of the 10 regional functional departments. The District administration is headed by a District Development Director (DDD) assisted by a District Planning Officer and the District functional managers. All important decisions are made by a District Development and Planning Committee, chaired by the Area Commissioner, and have to be approved by the District Development Council chaired by the CCM District Chairman. All civil ser- vants in the Region are, in principle, responsible to the RDD and not the central ministries in Dar es Salaam whose principle function is to provide technical advice and services to the Regions, including research and staff training. Staff, once appointed to a Region, can only be transferred to another Region with the agreement of the RDD.

2.07 Villagers play a role in the development process through the basic CCM unit, the 10 family cell; the Village Council; and the various committees created by the Village Act, 1975.

2.08 These administrative arrangements help interaction between the political structure and the Civil Service and provide a line of communication from central Government through the Region to the District and village. However, several problems exist. Planned staff strengths have not been achieved, particularly at the lowest level, and staff quality remains low. Project implementation capacity is uneven and there has been varying interpretation by regional officials of the emphasis to be given to aspects of national policy. These problems are currently aggravated by uncertainties -5- as to the future of the cooperativeorganization and of rural wholesaling and retailing, and therefore of channels for village credit, input delivery, and marketing.

Villagizationand Cooperatives

2.09 The Arusha Declaration of 1967 and the TANU Guidelines of 1971 identified the ujamaa village as the goal for effecting self-relianceand a community approach to development. However, when progress proved slow, emphasis was shifted to the formation of planned or developmentvillages as an intermediatestep towards full ujamaa status. In these, production could take place on an individualfamily basis with the family retaining rights in the produce from the land which they worked. The speed with which the move to villages has taken place is remarkable and appears to have been achieved without serious trouble although considerablecompul- sion was used. The target for completion of the villagizationprogram was set for the end of 1976. The precise pattern of developmentwithin each village has been left to the villagers and regional authoritiesto decide.

2.10 This considerablelocal autonomy has now been spelled out in the Villages and Ujamaa Villages (Registration,Designation and Administration) Act of 1975 (see Annex 1, paras 35-39). Under the Act and the Rules made under it, the RDD is empowered to register any village of not less than 250 "kaya" (familyunits) which has clearly defined boundaries. Each such village is to perform its functions as if it were a multi-purposecoopera- tive society. Each is required to have a Village Council of not more than 25 people whose principal functions are to plan and coordinate the agricultural and other activitiesof the village operating through five or more committees to which it may delegate responsibilities. The Village Council has power to allocate land and control its use; it owns all heavy agricultural machinery and other capital goods (except for livestock and small farm tools which remain the property of individuals);it can borrow and is required to establish a capital fund, a reserve fund, and a disposable fund; and it may be granted wide judicial and administrativepowers for the political, economic or social developmentof the village. Thus the Village Council which is elected by the Village Assembly is expected to have complete control over the operation of a village.

2.11 Adoption of the Villages Act implies major changes in the cooperative marketing organization. Instead of primary societies having a voluntary membership with no firm geographicalboundaries, membership is now exclusive to the registeredvillage, and the cooperativebecomes the sole routing for inputs and crop sales. The District and Regional Unions have been dismantled, and the parastatalsresponsible for specific crops will deal directly with individualvillages. As a matter of expediency,however, cooperationbetween groups of neighboringvillages is generally anticipated,and a period of trial and error in the new supply and marketing structure is to be expected. -6-

Infrastructureand Services

2.12 AgriculturalServices. The AgriculturalExtension Service is organized regionallyand coordinatedand provided technical guidance by the Ministry of Agriculture (Kilimo) in Dar es Salaam. Most extension personnel are employed by Kilimo but in areas dominated by a major crop may be staff of the relevant parastatal (para. 2.15). About 2,500 field staff are engaged in crop work and a further 800 in animal husbandry and animal health programs. At present, an assistant field officer (AFO) is responsible at ward level, for supervisionof agriculturalservices to about 1,000 farmers (3 villages): he is answerable to the District AgriculturalDevelopment Officer, normally controlling three or four wards.

2.13 The extension services have generally been ineffective in introducing improved techniques to farmers due partly to pricing policies and high-cost services which reduced farm-gate prices and thus, incentives,but also to lack of adequate staff, a lack of proven technicalpackages, inadequate training and poor management, the latter reflected in little work programming,limited logistic support, frequent transfers and administrative problems. Refresher courses are infrequent,an average extensionworker receiving additional training only once during his service.

2.14 Long-, medium- and short-termagricultural credit to farmers is provided by the Tanzania Rural Development Bank (TRDB) through cooperative societies. TRDB administers special funds on behalf of Government and has been supported by the Bank Group as the main credit channel for IDA funds. The standard rates of interest charged by TRDB are 8-1/2% on short-term loans and 7-1/2% on medium- and long-term loans. Cooperativesocieties onlend to members at the same rates.

2.15 Forest Management. Overall responsibilityfor forest policy, and for sector planning rests with the Forest Division (FD) of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Tourism. Responsibilityfor the management of Regional reserves and reafforestationhas been decentralizedand is carried out by FD staff under Regional and District Natural Resources Officers. The FD employs about 5,000 people including 20 professionalforesters, and 70 technical foresters holding diplomas in forestry. Technical training is carried out in the Faculty of Agriculture and Forestry in Morogoro and other local and foreign training centers and it is anticipated that a current shortage of trained staff will be overcome by about 1980.

2.16 Parastatal Organizations. During the 1970's,a number of Govern- ment owned, but fairly autonomous organizationshave been given increas- ingly wider powers over the production,collection, processing and marketing of major crops, their functions cutting across those previouslyexercised by Government departmentsor the cooperativeunions. Importantamong these are the Tanzania Cotton Authority (TCA), the Tobacco Authority of Tanzania (TAT), and the National Milling Corporation (NMC), the latter responsible -7- for grain crops. Recently Regional marketing and distributionresponsibili- ties were allocated to specifiedparastatals: the functioningof this new approach remains to be seen. The parastatalsmay carry out crop research, employ extension staff, and provide inputs on which they may pay subsidies derived from surpluseson crop operations. They are required to operate on a commercial basis, but do not pay corporate tax. However, the responsible Minister is empowered to set prices and rates and under the ParastatalOrgani- zations (FinancialSupervision and Control) Act, 1975, may direct the transfer of surpluses. Thus he has considerablecontrol over the parastatals'operations.

2.17 Rural Water Supplies. Universal rural water supply is a declared goal of Government, targetted for 1991. Recently an intermediatetarget was set of at least one water source in every village by 1980 -- in part because of the need arising from acceleratedvillagization. However, the water supply program has been constrainedby lack of technical and skilled manpower for planning and execution and by its capital and recurrent finance requirements. Government is supporting a least-costapproach to water supplies (although this has to be tempered by considerationsof local needs) which requires good informationon the underlyinghydrogeology of the country. This is being obtained by a series of Regional Water Master Plans, of which those for 5 Regions are finished or nearing completion,and another 6 are under preparation. Most are done by consultantsfinanced by bilateral aid. Government has for sometime accepted the principle of cost recovery in urban water supplies and is reviewing its policy on this issue with respect to rural water facilities. The review is expected to be completed by the end of 1977. Also, a program to train selected villagers to operate and maintain water supply systems is being formulated. It is anticipated that such operators would be supportedby their respective villages.

2.18 Water supplies are the responsibilityof the Ministry of Water, Energy and Minerals (Maji) but project implementationrests with the Regions. The Regional Water Engineer (RWE) has direct control over the design, construction, operation, and maintenanceof rural water supplies,but the Ministry reserves powers to check the design of difficult projects, assists the Regions in procurement,provides advice on standardizationof designs and equipment, trains sub-professionalstaff, and operates constructionand drilling teams which it hires to the Regions.

2.19 Road Constructionand Maintenance. Of some 33,000 km of roads in Tanzania, nearly 30,000 km are unengineeredearth and gravel roads suitable only for dry-weathermovements. Primary roads -- some 7,000 km of trunk and territorialmain roads linking the regional capitals with each other and neighboringcountries -- are the responsibilityof the Ministry of Communicationsand Works (Comworks),whilst the planning, budgetary control and execution of work on local main roads (9,000 km) and tertiary roads (17,000km) devolves on the Regional Engineer (RE) and his staff, subject only to technical guidance and assistance from Comworks. In practice, the RE frequently also acts as executing agent for Comworks on maintenanceof the primary network. -8-

2.20 Highways are expected to account for a significant proportion of the total budget under Tanzania's third Five-Year Development Plan (nominally for 1975/80 but delayed in preparation) with emphasis including the improvement of roads to serve agriculture and the improvement of highway maintenance. A major constraint in the program is lack of qualified personnel, a shortage which has been partially responsible for a major deterioration in road maintenance since 1970. Shortages exist in the professional and technician grades, but a center for training foremen, inspectors and mechanics has recently opened and is beginning to turn out staff at this level.

Project Implementation Capacity

2.21 Problems have occurred in all areas of project implementation in the agricultural and rural sector in Tanzania except for turnkey construction work. In particular, delays in start-up have occured in most projects, and these have arisen from delays in procurement and minor construction work, delays in staff recruitment often associated with poor management, shortage of extension staff and accountants, problems with the management of parastatal bodies directly concerned in implementation, and changing price policies of inputs and commodities. The Bank is assisting implementation of agricultural Projects by seconding of two officers to Kilimo, to assist in procurement, project implementation, and financial control. More assistance in implementation will be needed as the range of Project investment expands (see para. 4.15).

2.22 To be successful, any Regional Development Project must focus on strengthening Regional institutions and cover not only directly project related institutions but also those related to non-project activities in the area. An unknown is the implementation capacity of the Village Councils, newly created under the Village Act. These problems point to a need for a simple administrative structure, a carefully developed project implementation schedule, simple investment components, adequate technical assistance, and a cautious pilot approach to development within villages.

2.23 The Kigoma Rural Development Project. Lessons being learned in the Kigoma Project, the first Regional rural development project in Tanzania, should be particularly closely followed. After 2 of the scheduled 5 years of operations, disbursements on this project were under 30% of appraisal expecta- tions, with delays particularly attributed to bottlenecks in the delivery of critical supplies and inputs, and to Government's limited inplementation capacity, especially in the water supply sector. Initial adoption rates in agriculture were high, and more recently there has been impressive progress with construction of village infrastructure (mostly classrooms and godowns) and with villager's self-help contributions, and the Project is clearly making a positive impact on the Region. However, responses to the projects' agricultural packages remain uncertain and proposed village-level trials have not yet begun. Little progress has been made with the smaller project components, including feeder roads and livestock development; agricultural credit recovery is running at only 35% of loans; the quality of village bookkeeping is unsatisfactory; and no audit of project accounts has yet taken place. In the face of these problems, it is proposed to consolidate implementation in FY78 on the 50 (out of a target of 135) villages so far incor- porated in the project, and it is expected that the Association'sheavy supervision input (averaging about 35 man weeks a year) will be continued. The Project brings out the crucial need for a pilot period in the development of technical packages at village level; for strong, imaginative,management supported as necessaryby considerable in-depth implementationassistance by the Association;the need to tackle bottlenecks outside the Region; and a gradual build-up of project implementation.

III. THE PROJECT AREA

Location, Ecology & Economy 2 3.01 Tabora Region, covering some 70,000 km or 9% of the land area of mainland Tanzania, is the largest Region in the country. It lies 4°- 60 S of the equator but with elevationsmainly between 1000m and 1500m has a warm mild climate. The rainfall is markedly seasonal,mainly falling between November and May, and reduces progressivelyin total from about 1000 mm a year in the West of the Region to under 700 mm in the East, where rainfall reliability is also significantlylower. Soils range from sandy loams in the South Center and West, to heavy soils in poorly drained areas especially in the North. They are widely variable and frequently associated in a catena. Rainfall and soils are the major determinantsof the natural vegetation and agriculturalpotential of the Region. The West and South is dominated by miombo woodland (Brachystegiaand Julbernadia spp.) over Hyparrhenia grassland whilst in Nzega and Igunga Districts, the natural woodland is Combretum, Acacia and Albizia spp. associated with varied grasslands.

3.02 Tsetse fly infests much of the Region and has protected the miombo woodland away from the major lines of communication. Consequently,the population is concentratedin the North-eastand close to the major road and rail routes. Of the estimated total of 780,000 (mid-1976),some 440,000 are in Nzega and Igunga, to give a density of 32 per km , and 340,000 divided between Tabora and Urambo Districts where in the rural areas (i.e. excluding some 50,000 in Tabora town), the population density is under 5 per km . In recent years, the population has been swelled by an influx of refugees from Burundi but even without this, the growth rate has been about 4% -- considerably above the national average -- due to immigration from other Regions. Po ulation densities in adjacent areas to the north and east are up to 60 per km .

3.03 Tabora, the Regional center is on the Central railway from Dar es Salaam to Kigoma, at its junction with the Mwanza line. About 10 trains a week come up to Tabora which is also served by scheduled flights. A fair but poorly maintained gravel road links Tabora to Dodoma and Mwanza via Nzega but the other roads in the Region are poor and district roads are frequently only dry-weather tracks. - 10 -

3.04 The major economic activity of the Region is smallholder farming, in which some 91% of the population is engaged. Agriculture,agro-industries, livestock,forestry and fishing account for nearly 90% of the gross marketed product of the region, valued at TSh 222 million (US$27 million). The gross regional product was estimated in 1974-75 at TSh 425 million (US$53 million). One-third comprised subsistenceproduction, one-third crop sales of which tobacco dominated,and only 19% was contributedby services and non-agriculturalproduction (Annex 1, para 1.). The average per capita income of TSh 600 (US$75) per head is below the national average and the per capita farm income of TSh 475 (US$59) is probably also below its average although Tabora is considerablybetter off than Regions like Kigoma, its neighbor to the west.

3.05 Although only about 7% of the Region is under cultivation,and it contains only 5% of the Tanzanian population, in recent years, Tabora has been responsiblefor about 55% of the national production of tobacco, 30% of harvested groundnuts, 20% of paddy, 17% of cotton and 11% of maize. However, production of maize, paddy, groundnuts and sorghum, has been declining and the Region has recently been importing both maize meal and rice. Crop cultivation is generally traditionalwith hand-implements,and, until villagization, was extensive in nature on scattered smallholdings. With the concentra- tion of the population in villages and the establishmentof cultivation blocks, production conditionshave changed markedly except for tobacco, introduced about 20 years ago, and typically produced by smallholderscon- centrated in groups of villages. Although village grouping has considerable advantages for the provision of extension and related services, it may lead to serious soil depletion and erosion problems and causes a problem of fuelwood for curing tobacco, presently obtained from the surroundingmiombo but becoming increasinglycostly to transport.

3.06 The Region also has some 1 million livestock, about 7% of the national herd. These are under traditionalgrazing and the off-take (about 5.2%) is low. With 55% of the land area tsetse-infested,the herd is concentrated in the fly-free north-east which, with stocking rates estimated at 1:1.2 ha, is badly overgrazed and subject to severe erosion. Herds, which vary considerablyin size, are communallygrazed under traditionalmanagement, and control over grazing and calf nutrition is thereforevery difficult. Consequentlya low calving rate, high calf mortality, and poor weight gains characterizethe livestock sector. This is aggravatedby poor disease control, partly arising from failure to enforce compulsorydipping regula- tions, and inadequatedip supervisionand maintenance. Losses in marketing are also high due to inadequatestock control and lack of marketing facilities.

Administration,Infrastructure and Services

3.07 Tabora has the typical Tanzanian administrativestructure (Chart, WB 16562 in Annex 9). It is now organized into four Districts; the former Nzega District having been subdivided into Nzega and Igunga in 1975 and the former Tabora District subdividedinto Tabora and Urambo at the same time - 11 -

(Map, IBRD 12307). Staff in the new Districts is still being built up and is relatively inexperienced,but the Regional team is well established and has been continuouslyassociated with the Project in preparation and appraisal.

3.08 There are some 350 villages averaging about 350 families each and embracing over 90% of the rural population. The approximate distributionof villages is shown in Map, IBRD 12307. Registrationof villages under the Village Act was due to be completed by late 1976. Although registration involves definitionof the village population and land area, it is not a pre-requisitethat village resources (such as land, water, access, storage) be declared adequate for viable operations,and no village plan is required before registration. However, a small land planning unit has made a start on physical mapping of village layouts.

3.09 Agriculturaland Veterinary Services. Agriculturalextension services in the Region are organized on crop lines, under the Tobacco Authority of Tanzania (TAT) and the Tanzania Cotton Authority (TCA) for their respective crops and under the Ministry of Agriculture (Kilimo) for other crops including grains. There are about 300 extension workers in the Region, or enough contact staff for 2 men for every 3 villages, but many extension workers are inadequatelytrained or inexperiencedor both, and only 27 of the staff are universitygraduates. Lack of transport facilities and of locally proved research information also reduce the efficiencyof the agriculturalservices. A 3-man team of veterinariansprovided by the German Democratic Republic gives technical direction on livestock, and directs the work of the Veterinary InvestigationCenter (VIC). There are 10 veterinary centers in the Region. Staffing is adequate except at the key Field Officer level, but lack of both transport and recurrent funds inhibit operations. There are 23 registered livestockbuying stations in the Region, operated by the Tanzania Livestock Marketing Co. (TLMC).

3.10 Water Supplies. Tabora is not included in the present Water Master Plan program. From the limited informationavailable on the hydrology and hydrogeologyof the Region, it appears that groundwateris scarce or absent in the north-east, that finding water from shallow-wellsis reasonably assured in the center and South, and that groundwateris available in both shallow and deep horizons in the West. Of the 710,000 rural population,it is estimated that about 16,000 (2%) are presently supplied from piped systems or open reservoirs,and a further 199,000 (28%) have adequate groundwater sources. Of the remainder in need of improved water, about 250,000 (35% of the rural population) can only be supplied from surface sources, about 180,000 (25%) could be served by shallow-wells,and the remaining 65,000 (9%) would need to be supplied by boreholes. In the next 15 years, the Region's population is expected to increase by about 370,000 and would be supplied in similar proportionsfrom the various sources.

3.11 Road Constructionand Maintenance. The primary purpose of roads in Tabora is to support agriculturalproduction both to evacuate produce and to provide access for inputs and extensionworkers. Road conditions have deterioratedin recent years so that several stretchesof the 2000 km - 12 -

of network roads and two-thirds of village access roads (which total some 1300 km) are impassable during portions of the six-month rainy season. Road surfaces also are rough enough to cause very high vehicle operating costs. Maintenance of all roads in the Region is the responsibility of the Districts, under the supervision of the Regional Engineer. At present there are inadequate staff, equipment and spares for maintenance, and staff are underqualified: as a result, only 60% of network roads currently receive any maintenance attention at all, and there is no program of village access- road maintenance.

3.12 Forestry and Fuelwood Supplies. The Regional demand for wood for domestic fuel and for tobacco curing has increased dramatically and the miombo woodland of Tabora has been stripped to the point that in the relativ- ity densely populated north-east, the land has been denuded, massive erosion is a threat, and domestic fuel is desperately short; whilst in the older- established tobacco areas, costs of transporting fuel are increasing as the land close to tobacco villages are clear-felled. The most hopeful approach to providing wood fuel and slowing the unplanned exploitation of the miombo forest is the establishment of fast-growing, high-yielding exotic species in plantations. However, plantations on an individual farmer basis have not been successful and an alternative approach is needed. Nurseries to provide seedlings are run by the Regional FD staff. Additional trained staff are needed for extension work, and tranport facilities are needed by nurseries and by extension personnel.

IV. THE PROJECT

A. Brief Description

4.01 The Project would, over a 5-year investment period, initiate a new Region-wide development program in Tabora. The Project would be designed to meet the uncertain implementation capacity of the villages and the problems of developing appropriate technical packages following villagization, and also to meet the need for improved management both in overall control and in implementation of components. It would be oriented to supplement and complement ongoing developments in the Region, and to improve its capacity to handle further investments, providing mostly on-the-job training in planning and technical services. In a phased pilot program, the Project would directly encourage crop and livestock production; would provide facilities especially water, roads and wood fuel, which are lacking in ongoing developments; and start to put in such infrastructure by low-cost techniques in other areas to help the consolidation of new villages into viable production units. It would strengthen the implementing and planning capacity of the Region and provide water and land-use plans as the basis for future development, which, it is envisaged, would be assisted either by a second-phase Region-wide Project or by the incorporation of components of national projects into Tabora. The Project would include provision for: - 13 -

(a) pilot approaches to intensifiedcrop and livestock production in about 42 newly-formedvillages not already included in other programs,principally in Nzega and Igunga;

(b) capacity to carry out an immediate low-cost water supply program, Region-wide,and funding for a Water Master Plan;

(d) a pilot reafforestationprogram based on villages in the old establishedtobacco areas, primarily in Tabora and Urambo Districts;

(e) production of a Land Use/Capabilitymap which, with the Water Master Plan, a tsetse survey, and strengtheningof the village planning team, would provide a framework for further investmentsin the Region;

(f) specialist personnel,housing, equipment and supplies to strengthenthe capacity of the Region to implement the Project, monitor progress and evaluate impact, and assist in the formulationand planning of further developmentsin the Region.

The Regional DevelopmentDirector (RDD) would have overall responsibility for Project implementationand the Project would be executed, under the direction of the Regional Planning Officer assisted by a Project Coordi- nator, through the Regional and District functional units or parastatals as appropriate.

B. Detailed Features

Crop Development (Annex 2)

4.02 A pilot program in some 30 selected villages (Annex 2, para. 5) of Nzega and Igunga Districts would seek (a) to establishmeans of increasing production (principallyfrom higher yields) of cotton, paddy, sorghum, and groundnuts by the provision of inputs and improving agriculturalextension and related services,and (b) in order to provide a basis for extending the program to other villages in the Region, to carry out extensive crop demonstrations-cum-trialsunder farmers' field conditions using improved practices derived from other zones. The program would be headed by a qualified agronomist who, in addition to his role on the Project Planning Team, would oversee the extension and trials programs for which staff, housing and transport would be provided. Provisionwould be made for a mobile extensionvan, and village storage facilities;and the Project would also provide personnel and laboratory equipment for the newly completed tobacco research center at Tumbi. - 14 -

4.03 Cotton production in Igunga would be enhanced by timely planting of an established improved variety; improved plant populations and weeding practices; the application of fertilizers; and an insecticidal spray program. Rainfed paddy yields would be raised by use of fertilizers and improved management; and improved seed varieties would be tried. Sorghum production would be increased by use of available high-yielding varieties, fertilizers, and improved cultural practices; whilst groundnut yields from local seed would be increased by application of fertilizer, and improved planting density and weeding.

Livestock Development (Annex 3)

4.04 The livestock development component would comprise a pilot introduction of sedentary, commercially oriented, production methods into about 6 selected established villages (Annex 3, para. 28) in the tsetse-free Nzega and Igunga Districts, and a pilot introduction of livestock into a further 6 villages in miombo forest areas subject to light tsetse-fly challenge. These last could be in areas partially cleared by timber-felling for tobacco production. It would make provision for transport, veterinary centers, dips and other capital investments including 6 weigh-bridges; technical and management assistance for livestock development planning, a limited tsetse survey and tsetse control program; and operating costs in the five-year development period. Water and access would be adequate or would be provided under the relevant components of the Project. The component is not dependent on the second Livestock Project (Cr. 382-TA) which has had implementation problems but has only a minor input within Tabora Region.

4.05 Increased production in the tsetse-free areas would be derived from control of grazing and herd-size on demarcated village lands; extension advice and health control by Assistant Field Officers, supported by the services of the area veterinary center; provision of or upgrading of a village dip; and the introduction of stall-fattening, supported by short- term credit for stall construction and stock purchase. The villages selected for the stall-fattening component are expected to be among those included in the pilot crop development program (para. 4.02). In the newly-stocked villages in the light tsetse challenge areas, animal health would be maintained by subsidized prophylactic treatments for trypanosomiasis. Manage- ment of the village breeding herd, expected to be about 670 cows, would be centered on controlled rotational grazing and a closely supervised dipping program. Each village would receive a cattle dip, and one fully equipped veterinary center would be established per 3 villages. Fly barriers would be cleared and maintained by the Regional tsetse control division, rein- forced under the Project by a mobile tsetse unit under direction of an experienced tsetse ecologist, which would also make a survey of secondary growth areas to establish tsetse distribution, habitat and potential breeding areas -- data also needed for the Regional Land-Use Plan (para. 4.13).

Water Supply and Planning (Annex 4)

4.06 This component would provide for construction of low-cost water sources and simple installations in selected villages with production - 15 - potential, and for a Regional Water Master Plan, to start simultaneously and to be programmed so as to provide some guidance to the Regional Water Engineer (RWE) in his ongoing program. Design and constructioncapacity would be strengthenedby providing professionalmanpower, transport, equipment and materials to the departmentsunder RWE. Villages are expected to meet part of the capital cost of installationsand a significantpart of the recurrent costs of maintaining supplies (para. 2.17). The Water Master Plan would be prepared by consultants.

4.07 There would be little risk in making a start with simple water facilities under the Project on the basis of existing knowledge of groundwater resources, and the need for water in some villages is such that delay- ing all constructionuntil after completion of a Master Plan would not be justified. Priority in water supply developmentwould be given to shallow- wells with handpumps or, failing that, to boreholes with handpumps or engines. The type would depend on the circumstancesof the particular village. The program would be flexible: it could probably fully satisfy 75-100 villages or provide reasonable resources to a larger number. Selection of villages would be by the Regional administrationon the basis of least cost, production impact, need (with due considerationgiven to improving supplies in the ongoing IDA-assistedMaize Project and to supplementingsupplies to production villages selected in this Project), and the demonstratedwillingness of villages to contribute in cash or kind to the constructionand maintenance of the water supply facilities. At negotiations,assurances were given by Government that these criteria for village selectionwould be followed, and that the Associationwould be consulted before commitment or constructionof any major water scheme estimated to cost more than US$125,000 equivalent.

Road Maintenance and Reconstruction(Annex 5)

4.08 The project would provide for improved routine road maintenance of network roads, and reconstructionof network and access roads. For maintenance, the Project would provide technical and managerial assistance, training, and workshop equipment. Priority would be given to the network road maintenance task. A major technical assistance input would be to strengthen maintenancemanagement; while equipmentwould be provided to improve the four District mechanical maintenance units which would operate within a Regional plan. Network road reconstructionwould concentrateon the repair and upgrading of identified bad spots which are presently largely impassable in bad weather. It would be by a capital-intensiveunit which has an estimated capacity to reconstructabout 75 km of road a year.

4.09 Access road betterment would be by three units employing labor- intensive technology to improve about 400 km of roads for 200 villages. The units would each have a 25-man permanent core of technicianswhose main function would be to supervise and provide technicalassistance for the village labor which would undertake the constructionand to train them in post-bettermentmaintenance. Each unit (Annex 5, Appendix 5) would have an annual capacity of about 32 km of 3 m road.

4.10 The road component is complementaryto and consistentwith the overall highways strategy of Tanzania. It would provide direct support to - 16 - the directly productive components of the Project as well as to the ongoing IDA-assisted Tobacco and Maize projects, and would provide planning capacity and infrastructure for further development in the Region.

Reafforestation (Annex 6)

4.11 The component is to establish a pilot program in which villages would plant up and manage plantations, under Forest Division (FD) supervision, to supply fuelwood for tobacco curing and domestic use. Three nurseries would be established or expanded under the Project and would grow and deliver, to some 15 established tobacco villages, seedlings for planting about 50 ha per village a year. Planting in each village would be in several blocks selected with Project guidance by the Village Council. It is anticipated that, in all except full ujamaa villages, areas within the blocks would be allocated initially to individual families who would be responsible for maintenance and would harvest the fuel. The first cutting would take place at about the ninth year, to be followed by coppice crops in the 17th and 25th years after which the area would be replanted. The Project would provide for clearing of land, fencing and, where necessary, water, at the nurseries; seasonal nursery staff (to be supervised by staff recruited for the purpose -- an Assistant Forester and a Field Assistant per nursery); vehicles for transport of seedlings and for extension staff; and a village training program. The cost of seedlings would be minor: but in order to encourage timber planting, it is not proposed that villagers would be required to pay for them.

4.12 Wood plantations represent a long-term investment which, it is frequently suggested, smallholders may not be willing to undertake. How- ever, analysis with the aid of a linear programming model demonstrates that villagers would find the investment very profitable especially if present fuelwood transport costs were unsubsidized. (Annex 7). The model also shows that the present subsidies on fuelwood transport discourage timber planting (and thus increase the stripping of the miombo woodland) but do not increase tobacco production. At negotiations, Government agreed to phase out any transport subsidies by 30 June, 1982.

Land-Use Planning (Annex 8)

4.13 The Project includes provision for a team to produce a land-use and land-capability master plan for Tabora Region and prepare detailed village maps for selected villages. The work would be carried out at two or three levels: a reconnaissance survey at 1:250,000 based on interpretation with ground truthing of the 1:50,000 aerial photographs taken in mid-1974, to map present land-use; if justified in the light of the reconnaissance results, a village-site selection map at 1:50,000 to delineate areas with immediate development potential having regard to soil, terrain and socio- economic factors; and the detailed village maps at 1:10,000 of areas selected according to local priority to show productive capacity and potential use. For each class, appropriate economic exploitation or farming systems would be established. - 17 -

4.14 Provision is also made for enlarging and strengtheningthe Village Planning Unit of the RADO to bring operationalstrength to four three-man field units by providing (a) training at Nyegezi and on the job; (b) field and drawing equipment;and (c) additional draftsmen. Secondary school leavers suitable for training are available in Tabora. The teams would cooperatewith village councils and village Production and Marketing committees to produce a contouredvillage layout and production plan, enlarging on the land capability information.

Project Implementation,Evaluation and Regional Planning

4.15 To assist the Regional Planning Officer, who would be directly responsiblefor implementationof the Project, the Project would provide a Project Coordinator,a Financial Controller and an Evaluation Officer in Tabora, and a Project Expeditor in Dar es Salaam. The Project Coordinator would coordinate and direct the activities of functionalmanagers involved in the Project. The Financial Controller would be responsible for Project procurementactivities and would manage and control Project funds. The Evaluation Officer would have charge of a small team responsiblefor collecting, coordinatingand analyzing for Project management relevant data for monitoring Project progress to facilitatemanagement decisions, and would organize evaluation of Project impact (Annex 9). The Project Expeditor would be establishedunder the Prime Minister's Office and posted to Dar es Salaam to assist in the procurement and dispatch of Project materials and to provide liaison between the Project and concerned functional Ministries and parastatalsin Dar es Salaam. He would serve a similar function for the Kigoma Rural DevelopmentProject (Cr. 508-TA).

4.16 To assist in communicationsbetween the Project and Regional headquarters, and centers of Project activity, 5 radio-telephonelinks would be provided.

4.17 An essential task for the Regional authoritieswould be to prepare programs and projects for future implementationwithin Tabora Region, drawing on the results of the Project as these become available, and utilizing the facilitiesbeing provided under the Project. Planning would be by the Regional Planning Office, supported by the techniciansin the Project executive.

C. Project Costs (Annex 10)

4.18 Total Project cost, over a five-yeardisbursement period, is estimated at TSh 195.0 million (US$23.5 million) of which US$ 15.9 million (68%) is the estimated foreign exchange component. The component costs are presented in Annex 10, Tables 1 through 7 and are summarizedbelow: - 18 -

Foreign Component and Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Exchange proportion of base cost ------TSh '000------US$ '000…------

Crop Development (16%) 5,629 16,853 22,482 679 2030 2709 75

Livestock Development (11%) 8,320 7,112 15,432 1002 857 1859 46

Water Master Plan (7%) 2,520 7,980 10,500 304 961 1265 76

Water Supply - Design and Construction (24%) 11,656 23,369 35,025 1404 2816 4220 67

Road Maintenance and Improvement (20%) 9,008 20.154 29,162 1085 2428 3573 69

Forestry (1%) 866 574 1,440 104 69 173 40

Land-Use Planning (10%) 3,744 11,230 14,974 451 1353 1804 75

Project implementation and evaluation 1/ (11%) 6,285 9,125 15,410 757 1100 1857 59

Base Cost Estimates 48,028 96,397 144,425 5786 11614 17400 67

Contingencies

Physical (9%) 3,874 9,639 13,513 467 1161 1628 71

Price (26%) 11,382 25,700 37,082 1372 3096 4468 69

Total Project Costs 63,284 131,736 195,020 7625 15871 23496 68

1/ Includes unallocated housing and housing for technical assistance in Roads component. - 19 -

4.19 Cost by type of expenditureare given in Annex 10, Table 8, and are summarizedbelow:

Foreign Item and Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Exchange proportion of base cost …TSh '000------US$ '000----- %

Vehicle & Spares (5%) 970 5,543 6,513 117 668 785 85

Equipment (2%) 517 2,583 3,100 62 311 373 83

Buildings (5%) 4,854 2,635 7,489 585 317 902 35

Technical Assistance (13%) 4,789 14,373 19,162 578 1,732 2,310 75

Incremental Local Staff (8%) 11,748 - 11,748 1,415 - 1,415 -

Incremental Operation & Main- tenance (5%) 2,301 4,060 6,361 277 489 799 64

Farm Inputs (8%) 1,787 10,087 11,876 215 1,216 1,431 85

Construction Materials (13%) 1/ 2,850 16,250 19,050 343 1,952 2,295 85

Consultant contracts (8%) 2,855 9,095 11,950 344 1,096 1,440 76

Other n.e.s. (2%) 2,605 435 3,040 314 52 366 14

Roads component (20%) 2/ 9,008 20,154 29,162 1,085 2,428 3,513 69

Land-Use Plan (10%) 2/ 3,744 11,230 14,974 451 1,353 1,804 75

Base Cost Estimates 48,028 96,397 144,425 5,786 11,614 17,400 67

Contingencies

Physical (9%) 3,874 9,639 13,513 467 1,161 1,628 71

Price (26%) 11,382 25,700 37,082 1,372 3,096 4,468 69

Total Project Costs 63,284 131,736 195,020 7,625 15,871 23,496 68

1/ For Water Supplies.

2/ To be financed by UK (see para 4.20). - 20 -

Costs have been estimated at October 1976 prices and exclude the few identi- fiable taxes. A physical contingency of 10% has been included on equipment, vehicles, civil works and the Water Master Plan, and 15% on expatriate staff costs. 1/ Price contingencies, representing the mission's judgment of likely price changes, have been allowed at the following annual rates (a) equipment and foreign salaries for 1976: 9%, for 1977-79: 8%, and for 1980 on: 7%, and (b) for civil works for 1976: 13%, for 1977-79: 12%, and for 1980 on: 10%. Local staff costs have been inflated at 5% a year throughout, a level in keeping with Government's policy of wage and salary constraint. Price escalations total 26% of baseline costs.

D. Financing

4.20 Financing of Project costs would be shared in the following amounts and proportions: US$ (mln). %

IDA 7.20 31 Canadian Government 4.80 20 ODM (UK) 5.60 24 Tanzania Government 5.26 22 Villagers 0.64 3

Total 23.50 100

The proposed IDA Credit of US$7.2 million would be on standard terms to Govern- ment. The proposed Canadian Credit of Can $5.0 million would be administered by IDA under the terms of an agreement between the Government of Canada and IDA, a draft of which was circulated to the Board on April 1, 1977 (Sec IDA R 77-31) and pursuant to a Development Credit Agreement between the United Republic of Tanzania and the Association acting as administrator on behalf of the Government of Canada. The two Credits would be applied to all except the Roads and the Land-Use Planning components and would cover the foreign exchange costs and 25% of the local costs, or 74% of total costs of these components. Seventy-six percent of the Roads and Land-Use Planning components would be financed from a Grant of about [3.4 million (US$5.60 equivalent) to the Government of Tanzania from the United Kingdom Overseas Devel- opment Programme. Overall 75% of Project costs would be externally financed. Villagers in Tabora Region would pay US$640,000 for incremental farm inputs. Villagers will also provide unpaid labor on access roads and timber planting, which is not costed, and contribute to water supply construction, maintenance and operation (paras. 2.17, 4.06).

4.21 The Project pre-supposes that Government's budget allocations to Tabora Region will be continued through the Project period and that adequate maintenance funds would be made available for the upkeep of roads and water supplies and the repair and running of Project-provided equipment following the Project period. Assurances on these points were given at negotiations.

1/ This last reflects varying costs of expatriate assistance from different sources, and considerable variations between contracts for differing specializations. - 21 -

A condition of Credit effectivenesswould be the prior or simultaneousful- fillment of all conditionsfor the disbursementof the UK grant and the effectivenessof the Canadian Credit.

4.22 In view of the long procurement times typical for some equipment and for expatriatepersonnel and housing, and to ensure that the items would be available in time for the Project to be operationalduring the 1977/78 crop season, Governmenthas been encouraged to prepare contracts for key items of equipment, civil works, and technical assistance. Should these contractsbe ready in advance of Board presentation,the Associationwill consider authorizing award of the contracts subject to IDA procedures and at Government's risk. If necessary,also, part of the contractswould be financed retro- actively, subject to Board approval (para. 4.25).

E. Procurement

4.23 Procurement from the IDA and Canadian Credits would be as follows:

(a) Orders for vehicles and spare parts (US$1.0million), tools, laboratory,office and radio equipment (US$0.5 million), would be bulked as far as practicable and orders of US$100,000 or more would be procured through international competitivebidding in accordancewith Bank/IDA guidelines.

(b) Housing and stores construction(US$1.2 million) is expected to be by contractorsselected following international competitivebidding in accordance with guidelines. In the evaluation of bids, local contractorswould have a 7-1/2% preference margin.

(c) Orders for equipmentand civil works below US$100,000 would be handled in accordancewith existing Government procedureswhich are satisfactory.

(d) Materials for water supplies construction(US$2.5 million) would be procured by internationalcompetitive bidding in accordancewith Bank/IDA guidelines.

(e) Design and constructionof water supplies (US$2.5million) would be by force account.

(f) Requirementsfor fertilizers,insecticides and sprayers (U.S.$1.9million) would be bulked with similar items required under other IDA-assistedProjects in Tanzania. These would be procured by internationalcompetitive bidding in accordancewith Bank/IDA guidelines.

(g) The Water Master Plan (US$1.4million) would be prepared by consultants selected in accordancewith the Bank Group's guidelineson the selection and use of consultants. They would provide their own equipment - 22 -

except for vehicles, which would be procured in accordance with (a) above, and test rigs, to be provided by Maji.

Any contracts placed and orders made in advance of Board presentation (para. 4.22) would be in accordance with the above procedures. Assurances were obtained at negotiations that the procurement procedures outlined above would be followed.

4.24 Road equipment and technical assistance supplied under the UK grant would be obtained from the UK in accordance with UK procurement guidelines: the Land-Use Planning component would be carried out by the Land Resources Division (LRD) of the UK Ministry of Overseas Development with equipment similarly procured.

F. Disbursements (Annex 11)

4.25 Disbursements of funds from the IDA and Canadian Credits would be on the following basis:

(a) 100% of the foreign exchange expenditure and 85% of the local cost for vehicles, and equipment and the purchase of materials and inputs (US$5.9 million);

(b) 50% of total cost for buildings (US$0.6 million);

(c) 100% of the foreign exchange costs, and 75% of the local cost of consultants and technical assistance (US$3.5 million).

The IDA and Canadian Credits would be disbursed by IDA in the ratio of 7:5 for all of the above items. Disbursements would be fully documented. Except for technical assistance expenditures, any funds remaining in the accounts at Project completion would be available for reallocation to Project related expenditure at the discretion of the Association. With respect to technical assistance, any savings in funds would be cancelled unless the Association shall otherwise agree to a reallocation. An estimated schedule of disbursements is contained in Annex 11. Project related expenditures on civil works, equipment, or technical assistance incurred after January 1, 1977 up to an aggregate amount of $200,000 would be eligible for retroactive financing.

4.26 Disbursement from the UK grant would be administered directly by the UK. It would cover 100% of the foreign exchange costs and 17% of the domestic costs of the Roads and Land-Use Planning components.

G. Accounts and Audits

4.27 Project funds would be channelled from Government to the Regional, Development Budget and administered for the Regional Planning Office by the - 23 -

Project Secretariat (para. 5.01). The Project Financial Controller would maintain separate accounts of Project funds and would make annual allocations as necessary to the Regional functionalmanagers who would in turn keep separate accounts of the use of Project funds, under the supervision and guidance of the Financial Controller.Payments for items procured or handled by Central Ministries or Authoritieswould similarly be made by the Project Secretariat against the certificationof the relevant Authority.

4.28 To ensure sufficient liquidity for the Project, it is essential that Governmentmakes timely and adequate annual provision of funds to the Project. At negotiationsGovernment gave assurances that this would be done on the basis of annual budgets prepared by the Project management and approved by RDD.

4.29 Accounts of Project funds would be audited by independentauditors acceptable to the Association and the accounts and auditors reports would be submitted to the Associationwithin six months of the close of the financial year. Accounts of all village funds would be kept by those village cooperatives assisted by the Project. These would be audited by staff funded by the Prime Ministers Office. At negotiationsassurances were given that Government would ensure the satisfactorystaffing, supervision and functioningof such audit.

V. ORGANIZATION AND IMPLEMENTATION

Project Coordination, Monitoring, and Evaluation

5.01 The Regional Administrationwould have overall responsibility for the Project and policy matters would be decided by the Regional Develop- ment Committee chaired by the Regional DevelopmentDirector. The Project would be coordinated,guided and monitored by a Project Secretariat,headed by the Regional Planning Officer (RPO), who is a member of the Regional Develop- ment Committee. The chief executive of the Project would be a Project Coor- dinator, appointed for the purpose and directly answerable to the RPO. He would be supportedby a Financial Controller and an Evaluation Officer, each with appropriate staff. The positions of Project Coordinator,Financial Controller,and Evaluation Officer are crucial to the running of the Project: provision is made for them to be recruited internationally. SuggestedTORs and qualificationsare at Annex 9, Appendix 1. At negotiations,Government gave assurances that the suitability,in terms of their qualificationsand experience,of successful candidates for these posts would be agreed with the Associationprior to appointment. It was also agreed that it would be a condition of Credit effectivenessthat these three staff had been appointed.

5.02 Reporting on the physical progress of Project componentsand on use of funds would be from the functionalmanagers to the Project Coordinator. The Evaluation officer would be responsiblefor both monitoring the Project's progress and effects, and organizingin-depth evalua- tions of impact and problems as needed (Annex 9). The EvaluationOfficer - 24 - would also assist the RPO in supervising preparation of data and plans for post-Project investments and would play a major role in the preparation of a report at the completion of the Project analyzing the implementation and impact of the Project against the targets and objectives set. Responsibil- ity for this report would rest with the Government, and at negotiations assurances were given that Government would prepare the report, in consultation with the Association, and submit it to the Association within 6 months of completion of disbursements.

5.03 In view of the multi-sectoral nature of the Project, and the flexible nature of several components, the Project will require close supervision, especially in the startup period, and it will be important that selected supervision missions include technical staff of the Association. This is particularly important for the Water Supply component.

5.04 Links with the Party, CCM, would be continued at all levels: the Regional Development Committee reports to and executes policy decisions from the Regional Executive Committee, chaired by the Regional Commissioner, and there is close Party involvement in village decision- making. Links with the Ministeries and parastatal headquarters in Dar es Salaam and Dodoma would be strengthened by the appointment of a Project Expeditor stationed in Dar es Salaam under the Prime Minister's Office whose function would extend to assisting in and expediting material procurements. He would serve a joint function with the Kigoma Project (Cr. 508-TA) and in due course, is expected to provide similar services to the Mwanza/Shinyanga and Mara Projects, now in preparation. At negotiations it was agreed that his appointment would be a condition of Credit effectiveness, and would be made in consultation with the Association.

Project Implementation

5.05 Project execution generally would be through the existing Regional and/or District organization, as appropriate to the component, strengthened as necessary by additional technical personnel and funding within the functional units. The integration of the Regional and Project organization is shown in Annex 9, Chart, WB 16562. In detail: (a) The preparation and execution of elements under the water supply component would be at Regional level under the Regional Water Engineer (RWE). The RWEs division responsible for design and construction would be strengthened (Annex 4, paras. 24, 26). Manpower, which is available, would be recruited through normal Civil Service channels. RWE would continue to hire drilling and earth-moving teams from the Ministry of Water Development and Power (Maji), Dar es Salaam. The Water Master Plan would be carried out by consultants under the supervision of the RWE with methodology standardized and scope of services coordinated by Maji (Annex 4, paras. 22, 23 and Appendix 3) and simultaneously reporting to Maji and the Project. (b) The Roads component would be administered by the Regional Engineer supported by senior technical personnel (Annex 5, para. 15 and Appendix 1) supplied as a team under the Project by UK development assistance. A modified roads organization would be set up at Regional level, probably comprising the formation of a Network Road Section and an Access Road - 25 -

Section. The Network Road Section would be charged with the planning and supervisionof network road maintenance and improvements,to be carried out by Regional and District units; the Access Road Section would control Regional units working on the reconstructionand constructionof village access roads and would train and supervisevillagers who would be responsible for the upkeep of their village access roads. (c) The crop-agriculturecomponent would be administeredby the Regional AgriculturalDevelopment Officer (RADO) supported by a planner/agronomistand an extension training officer, provided for under the Project. Implementationwould be through the Nzega and Igunga District AgriculturalOfficers by two Field Officers, provided under the Project and posted to those Districts (Annex 2). Teams of the village Land Planning Unit strengthenedby training and equipment supplied under the Project by UK assistance,would continue to operate under the RADO. The first crop year of the Project would be spent in training and establishing the groundwork for the production program. It is assumed that the build-up of farmerswould be gradual rising from 30-35 per village in year 2 to about 200 per village in the fifth year (Annex 2, para. 6). (d) The livestock developmentcomponent would come under the purview of the Regional Livestock DevelopmentOfficer. He would be assisted by a livestock development specialist provided by the Project who would direct the program, coordinating program activitieswith those of the relevant District livestock development staff, and who would provide a Regional livestock planning capability.The veterinary team funded by the German Democratic Republic would continue to provide technicalassistance to animal health services. The mobile tsetse unit would be run by a project-providedtsetse ecologist (Annex 3). Village developmentwould be phased to allow full discussionson the proposals and their implications(e.g. for the village herds and milk suppply) with the village assembly,and for the preparationof agreed plans. The first 2 villages would be establishedin the second project year, and, assuming successful initial experiences,5 in each of the following 2 years (Annex 3, para. 36). (e) The fuelwood production component would be run, under the office of the Regional Natural Resources Officer, by a Forester and two assistant foresters recruited under the Project, in cooperationwith District Forest Division staff. (f) The Land Use/Capabilitysurvey would be carried out by LRD reporting to the Project secretariat.

5.06 A schedule showing overall Project implementationis given in Annex 9, Appendix 3; and details are given in the Annexes on the components.

5.07 It is envisaged that the two sanitary engineers, the construction engineer, and two drilling foremen for the Water Supply component; the planner/agronomistand the extension training officer in the crop-agriculture component; and the livestock development specialist and the tsetse ecologist; would all be recruited internationally. In order to avoid risk of unnecessary delays in the implementationof the Project, their recruitmenthas not been made a conditionof Project effectiveness. However, these are key staff for the relevant components and operations within the components other than procurementof necessary buildings, vehicles and equipment should not proceed before appropriatelyqualified and experienced staff are in position. At negotiations,assurances were given by Government that these key staff would - 26 -

be recruited by 1 March, 1978. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAQ) could be the source for the four agricultural and livestock specialists, using Project funds in trust.

Village Participation

5.08 The village would be the basic development unit of much of the Project and an aim of the Project is to secure the fullest participation of village members in the planning and implementation of Project components. This will be done by involving the Village Council through its committees, established under the Village Act, particularly the Finance and Planning committee which should work with the Land Planning Unit in the designation of agricultural, stock and forest plantation lands; the Production and Marketing committee on the implementation of the direct production components in effected villages; and the Work and Transport committee on village involvement in access roads and contributions to water supply maintenance. The effectiveness of the new village organization is untried and a flexible approach to encouraging local participation and strengthening the new village cooperatives will be needed by the Project staff. Similarly, if the projected changes to the structure of extension, training, input, marketing and credit services (para. 2.10, 2.11) and the development of new links between national, regional, sub-regional and village organizations, are not to delay Project implementation, Project management will need to be imaginative and pragmatic in its task.

VI. PRODUCTION, OTHER BENEFITS, AND IMPACT

Crop Agriculture and Livestock

6.01 Direct production benefits of the Project would arise from increased yields of cotton, rainfed paddy, groundnuts and sorghum, and from improved cattle productivity and the introduction of a stall-fattening enterprise. The improved crop packages--principally improved seed varieties, better planting rates, and use of fertilizers--would raise yields over 5 years, and the area under improved practices would expand as more farmers innovate. The anticipated crop production results for farmers innovating within the Project period are summarized below (see Annex 2, para. 7). - 27 -

Yields per farmer: Annual Incremental Pre- After Farmers Area Production Project 5 years innovating involved 5 yrs. 10 yrs. -----kg/ha------ha- - …-----mtons-----

Seed Cotton 500 1,000 3,000 3,000 930 1,650

Groundnuts (shelled) 400 600 6,000 1,800 556 840

Sorghum (grain) 500 1,500 6,000 3,900 1,583 3,468

Paddy 1,000 2,000 3,000 3,000 1,500 3,000

In the 42 villages involved in the Project, a total 6,000 out of 15,000 farmers are expected to have adopted improved practices on one or more crops; whilst a further 3,000 will have adopted improved extensive livestockmanage- ment or stall-fattening,to produce 650 tons of meat a year by 1987.

6.02 This direct production will partly go to enhancing subsistenceproduction and partly to increasing cash income. The production budgets (Annex 2, Tables 15 and 16) indicate that family consumption in the order 2,300 calories and 44 grams protein per head per day would be available to Project farmers whilst making cash sales of cotton, groundnuts, sorghum, paddy and beef of about TSh 2,000 (US$240)a year. (Ready export markets exist for cotton and groundnuts,and internal markets for sorghum, rice and beef. The quantities involved would not effect prices). It is estimated that average per capita incomes on Project farms would at least double from the present TSh 320 (US$40) a year level, in 5 years (Annex 2, para. 17). The budgets also show significant increases in returns to incremental family labor as well as returns on incrementalexpenditures on inputs of between 160 and 500%--levels high enough to lead to an expectation of ready adoption by farmers.

6.03 In these estimates, the Tanzanian 1976/77prices to growers have been used (TSh/kg):

Seed Cotton (AR): 2.00 Groundnuts (shelled): 2.50 (BR): 1.00 Sorghum (grain) : 0.90 Paddy : 1.00 Beef : 3.10

Recently Government has been taking steps to ensure real values to farmers are maintained,and the already announced 1977/78 prices show increases of 11-20% for sorghum, cotton and paddy, and a major rise for groundnuts (48%) and beef (77%). If this policy were continued, the farmers' budgets would be conservative.

6.04 The direct agriculturalproduction impact of the Project is small because of its essentiallypilot nature. It must also be appreciated that, for the same reason, it is uncertain and the figures given above are indicative, and assume reasonable success with the pilot program. It is anticipated, however, that sufficient knowledge will be gained of the applicationof improved practices to farms in NE Tabora to ensure replicationin a following - 28 - period. If such further development reached 100 villages, with 60% adoption rates (i.e. involving 23,000 farmers), then on the same basis, the annual incremental production results by the 5th year of that phase could be: Seed cotton, 3,700 m. tons; groundnuts, 2,000 m. tons; sorghum, 6,000 m. tons; and paddy, 6,000 m. tons.

Fuelwood

6.05 The pilot fuelwood establishment of some 5,000 ha of eucalyptus plantations in about 1 tobacco-growing villages would yield, from the ninth year, about 15 m /ha/yr. of fuelwood. This would be mainly for tobacco-curing. The impact of the fuelwood component is, therefore, largely indirect. The production benefits arise from increasing the area under tobacco and avoiding a reduction in tobacco and maize production which would occur as the labor-time cost of cutting wood for the ever-retreating natural forest increased (and possibly also as net returns on tobacco diminish in the face of increasing transport costs). Income increases also arise from savings in fuelwood transport costs. There are several approaches to quantifying these benefits. The linear programming model, which demonstrates the feasibility of village fuelwood planting, in Tabora conditions, uses transport savings and suggests long-term village income gains of over 25% a year (Annex 7, Tables 2 and 3). This component would be replicable in other tobacco villages, and could also be applied on a smaller scale to village domestic fuel production in the denuded NE Districts of Tabora.

Roads

6.06 The measured benefits of the enhanced maintenance and reconstruction of the network roads in Tabora arise from savings in vehicle operating costs on existing traffic, whilst the provision of all-season access to villages will give both vehicle operating savings and agricultural production benefits from assured year-around provision of inputs and services, and decreased crop spoilage. Unquantified benefits likely to elise from the roads component include savings on induced traffic, and improved access to social and administrative facilities. Gross benefit levels would vary with the mix of maintenance and reconstruction. A year-round weighted average vehicle cost savings estimate from network roads reconstruction is TSh 1.28 per vehicle/ km. These have been assumed to apply to 188 km by year 5 and nearly 400 km from year 9. A further saving of TSh 0.28 per vehicle/km is calculated from the incremental maintenance levels: this could apply to 100 km in 5 years and 200 km from the 7th year. Access road benefits-- savings from vehicle cost savings, production benefits, and crop savings-- are calculated to average nearly TSh 18,000 per village (US$2,200) per year in 1976 and apply to 80 villages by year 5 and 224 villages on completion of the program (Annex 5, Appendix 8), by which time, allowing for growth in production and traffic, annual benefits from access roads could be about TSh 6.0 million (US$725,000) a year. By that time, network road benefits are estimated at about TSh 5.5 million (US$660,000) a year. - 29 -

Water Supplies

6.07 The,water supply componentis estimated to provide improved supplies to 140,000-160,000rural people by 1981, bringing the proportion of Tabora's rural population supplied with water to about one- third (vs 23% now). Even so, the absolute number of people in villages lacking improved supply is expected to remain unchanged in the Project period--someindication of the size of the problem. Benefits from improved water supplies are difficult to quantify:in addition to health benefits, provision of water may release seasonallyconstrained labor to directly productive use, whilst an important effect of the program is expected to be the stabilizationof villages for which satisfactorywater sources can be established,thus encouraginglonger-term agricultural investments and production in them.

Overall Project Benefits

6.08 It is in fact, a reasonablepresumption that the various elements of the Project, which are designed to be complementary,will be mutually reinforcing,and the benefits of the package of investmentswill be greater than the sum of the parts. Moreover, the Project will supplementongoing developmentsin the Region, including those which are IDA-financedand, perhaps most important,will develop the capacity of the Region to handle further investments,whether routed through a further Regional project or as Regionally executed componentsof a national Project. This goes beyond the direct planning investments--theWater Master Plan, the Land Use/ Capability Plan, the tsetse survey, and the work of the EvaluationUnit-- and includes the results of the pilot production exercises in crops, livestock, and timber; and the experience and enhanced implementationcapacity being developedboth within the functionaldepartments of the Regional administrationand the villages. Together, these should enhance the prospects of achieving the objectiveof self-sustaininggrowth in the Region. There is no satisfactoryway of measuring these benefits: but it is clear that they are positive,additional to those quantified,and will effect most of the Region's rural population.

GovernmentCash Flow (Annex 12)

6.09 The incrementaleffect of the Project on the Governmentbudget is summarizedin Annex 12. In this calculation,it has been assumed that Govern- ment receivesparastatal surpluses (see para. 2.16); that input subsidieswill be reduced in 5 years and phased out in 10 years; and that villagers meet two- thirds of the maintenancecosts of Project water supplies and maintain their own access roads. It is indicated that the Project in itself would result in a long-termdeficit averaging about US$250,000 a year. It is, however, anticipated that this would be offset by strongly positive cash flows arising from the future investmentsexpected, based on the infrastructureprovided and knowledge gained in this Project, (para. 4.01). - 30 -

Ecological Effects

6.10 By instituting land-use planning, village block lay-outs, and controlled grazing with destocking in an area which is subject to severe erosion caused particularly by overgrazing, the Project will have beneficial effects on the Region's ecology. The land-use mapping will also provide a basis for the rational exploitation of the miombo woodland, the cutting of which will be slowed by the fuelwood component and similar planting expected to follow. Care will need to be taken in road reconstruction and maintenance that drainage lines are respected and that gravel pits do not become breeding grounds for malarial mosquitoes. The effects on the various water tables and water courses of the water supply component will need to be monitored: the Water Master Plan should, however, provide a basis for the rational development of the water resource. Fertilizer and spray applications in the villages in which these inputs are to be tried are possible ecological hazards which will, accordingly, be monitored by the Project (Annex 9, Appendix 2).

VII. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS (Annex 13)

Economic and Social Rate of Return

7.01 The Project is providing village trial results on crop and animal agriculture; a major input in planning and training for future development; and a start on a program of infrastructure. It is essentially preparing the Region for future investments which should have high pay-off, but by its nature the Project itself does not readily lend itself to conventional economic analysis.

7.02 The separate components have been analyzed, and over a 20 year period, those which are measurable give the following economic rate of return:

(a) Crop agriculture 18%

(b) Livestock development (including Tsetse Survey) 20%

(d) Fuelwood plantations 40%

No attempt has been made to calculate the return to the Water Master Plan or Water Supply component, nor to Land-Use Planning. (The Tsetse survey is counted as a cost without defined benefits in the Livestock component). Moreover, the return figures for the pilot agricultural components implicitly assume success with the applied research program which by its nature may not be a valid assumption. These figures in particular are therefore indicative only. Combining all the evaluated components and including the Project headquarters costs, the economic rate of return on the Project as a whole is - 31 - estimated at 17% over 20 years (Annex 13). Given the reservationsabove, an IER in the range of 10-20% on the total quantifiablecomponents is considered a realistic expectation. Including the costs of the Water and Land-Use Planning components,but attributing no benefits to them, the point estimate of IER would fall from 17% to 8%.

7.03 In the return calculations,the local cost element has been deflated by the Standard Conversion Factor (SCF) for Tanzania of 0.75 as no specific factors are yet available for Tanzania. This is the equivalent of applying the shadow exchange rate for Tanzania of TSh 11.00 = US$1.00. Without application of the SCF, an IER of 17% would fall to 10%. Unskilled labor, including incremental farm labor, has been shadow priced at 40% of the official rural wage rate: this level is representativeof the opportunity cost of such labor in the Region.

SensitivityAnalysis

7.04 The Project would be effected by slower than expected implementation -- to slow adoption rates by farmers, to delays in road constructionand maintenance, to delays in procurement-- and similarly to lower than expected yields or growth rates. The overall and individual component sensitivities have been tested as shown in Annex 13. The more sensitive components are crop agricultureand livestock (see para 7.02). Even if the applied experi- ments in these proceed as planned, major short-fallsin production are a clear risk. The roads and fuelwood components are very stable. Overall, there is no reason to expect that risks would all operate in the same direction in a Project which comprises a series of semi-autonomouscomponents and the emphasis in Project design is to ensure sound management at all levels. However, as a measure of such an occurrence,all benefits have been lagged. If all benefits are delayed 1 year whilst all costs are incurred on schedule (an unlikely twin event), the point estimate of IER drops to 13% and with a benefit delay of 2 years falls to about 10%.

Employment and Distributionof Benefits

7.05 The direct employment effects of the Project are small. Aside from short-term employment on constructionof Project facilities,some hundred or so unskilledworkers would be involved in roads, well-construction, cattle-dip maintenance and forest nurseries. Farmers are expected marginally to increase their time devoted to agriculturalproduction and would also provide labor on access roads.

7.06 Project beneficiariesare a cross-sectionof the rural population of Tabora. The 6,000 farmers expected to innovate will tend to be the better ones and therefore those rather better-off than average. However, all members of the Project villages would have equal opportunityto take part; there are few rigidities in Tanzania working against the poorer members of the rural community; and per capita farm income in Tabora is also probably below the national average farm income (para 3.04). The tobacco farmerswho would benefit from the fuelwood component are among the wealthier of the rural - 32 - community. Benefits of water supplies would be distributed without discrimi- nation among the villages most in need of water and demonstrating a willingness to contribute to the costs and upkeep of facilities. Access road benefits would largely accrue directly to farmers in proportion to their production, but, because trucks are largely owned by monopolistic parastatal corporations, and because tariffs are fixed nationally, the network road benefits would tend to go to truck and bus owners. Thus only indirectly would they be felt by the rural population and even then not only, or necessarily, in Tabora Region, except, perhaps from improved schedules on passenger services.

VIII. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATIONS

8.01 At negotiations, agreement was reached on the following major points, that:

(a) the selection of villages for the water supply component would be on the basis of least cost, production impact, need, and the willingness of villages to contribute to the construction and maintenance of facilities (4.07);

(b) the Association would be consulted before commitment or construction of any major water scheme estimated to cost more than US$125,000 equivalent (4.07);

(d) budget allocations to Tabora Region would be continued through the Project period and that adequate maintenance funds would be made available for the upkeep of roads and water supplies and the repair and running of Project-provided equipment following the Project period (4.21);

(e) the suitability in terms of their qualifications and experience of successful candidates to the posts of Project Coordinator, Financial Controller, and Evaluation Officer would be agreed by the Association prior to appointment (5.01);

(f) Government would submit a report to the Association within 6 months of completion of disbursements analyzing the implementation and impact of the Project against the targets and objectives set (5.02); and

(g) contracts with the key staff listed in para. 5.07 would be completed not later than 1 March, 1978 (5.07). - 33 -

8.02 It was also agreed at negotiationsthat, as conditions of Credit effectiveness: 9

(a) all conditionsfor the effectivenessof the Canadian Credit and the initial disbursementof the UK grant would have been fulfilled (4.21); and

(b) that the Project Coordinator,Financial Controller, EvaluationOfficer, and Project Expeditor had been appointed (5.01) and (5.04).

8.03 The proposed Project would be suitable for an IDA Credit of US$7.2 million on standard terms to the Government of Tanzania.

ANNEX 1

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Tabora - Background, Agriculture and Agricultural Organization

A. Economic and Physical Background

The Region's Contribution to National Production Para. 1 Climate Para. 2 Land-use, Soils and Ecology Para. 3 Agro-Economic Zones (Map IBRD 12308) Para. 5

B. Crop Production

Tobacco Para. 13 Cotton Para. 15 Paddy Para. 16 Maize Para. 17 Sorghum Para. 18 Groundnuts Para. 19

C. Agricultural Research Requirements

Cotton Para. 21 Paddy Para. 22 Sorghum Para. 23 Groundnuts Para. 24

D. Agricultural Extension and Other Services

Training for Agricultural Services Para. 30

E. Marketing and Price Policy

Marketing Para. 32 Price Policy Para. 35

F. The Village Act, 1975 Para. 36

Table 1: Av. Maximum and Minimum Temperatures and Rainfall in the Tabora Region

Table 2: Agro-economic Zones in Tabora

Table 3: Past Production of Important Crops in the Tabora Region

Table 4: Production Prices of Selected Crops 1968-1976

ANNEX 1 Page I

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Tabora - Background, Agriculture and Agricultural Organization

A. Economic and Physical Background

The Region's Contribution to National Production

1. Tabora Region, with about 25,000 km of cultivable land, is an important agricultural Region. Nearly 80% of the gross marketed regional product is derived from agriculture and the agro-industrial sector, and recently average harvested production in the Region has comprised 60% of the nation's production of tobacco, 30% of groundnuts, 20% of paddy, 14% of sorghum, 11% of maize and 7% of cotton. The composition of the gross regional product in 1974-75 was estimated to be as follows:

TSh % million of total

Tobacco 70 16.5 Cotton 24 5.6 Mlaize 19 4.5 Paddy 17 4.0 Groundnuts 6 1.4

Total crop sales 136 32.0

Livestock 15 3.5 Agro-industries 35 8.2 Timber 11 2.6 Beekeeping 3 0.7 Fishing 1 0.2

Total marketed agricultural production 201 47.3

Subsistence production 142 33.4

Total agricultural sector 343 80.7

Services 61 14.4 Construction 15 3.6 Other industry 6 1.4

Total non-agriculture 82 19.3

Gross Regional Product 425 100.00 ANNEX I Page 2

Climate

2. The average elevation of the Region is 1,100 m, with some ridges along the eastern border rising to 1,500 m. Due to relatively small differences in altitude, the temperatures are fairly uniform throughout the Region. The annual mean maximum and minimum temperatures are 29 C and 17 C respectively (Table 1). The average annual rainfall is about 800 mm (Table 1) and ranges from 650 mm along the eastern border to as high as 1,000 mm in the western edge. The rainy season lasts about six months from November to May, followed by a dry season of six months. Although the annual precipitation is sufficient for growing many crops, its distribution during the rainy season is critical, especially in the east and the north-east where breaks of 2 to 4 weeks in the rainfall during February and March causes periodic failure of maize and paddy. The risk of crop failure due to drought is significantly less in the western part of the Region.

Land-use, Soils and Ecology 2 2 3. Of the 700,000 km total land area, yearly 25,000 km (36%) is good agricultural land, of which only 2,500 ke (10%) is being cultivated currently2 National forests occupy 27,000 km (39%) while the remaining 18,000 km (25%) is in other, non-agricultural, use. An accurate and detailed soils map of the Region is now available: however, five major soil groups have been identified:

- Alluvial Black Cotton Soils in Igurubi, Igunga, Lugobo in the east and Koga in the south-west; - Granitic Banded Ironstone Light Sandy Loams in Ziba, Nkinga, Simbo, and Puge in the Central Eastern zone; - Medium Acid Dark Brown to Red Sandy Loams covering most of the Tabora and Urambo Districts; - Well drained Reddish Brown Loam in Itoba, Choma and Nzega; and - Poorly drained Dark Sandy Clay on the westernmost fringe.

Most of the cultivable soils are suitable for a wide range of food and fiber crops and have potential for profitable yields under good management.

4. The ecology of the Region is closely linked to the soil type and rainfall pattern. The sandy soils are dominated by species of the allied genera Brachystegia and Julbernardia forming miombo woodlands. The dominant grass cover in the miombo is Hyparrhenia. On the heavier soils of Nzega, the tree cover consists of Combretum, Acacia, and Albizia species associated with various grasses. ANINEX 1 Page 3

Agro-Economic Zones (Map IBRD 12308)

5. Based on climate and factors such as water availability, communications, marketing facilities and administrative boundaries, the Tabora Region can be divided into six main Agro-Economic Zones, shown on Map IBRD 12308 and summarized in Table 2.

6. The Western Zone: Except for the extreme western fringe bordering on the Ugalla and Gombe rivers, soils of this zone are medium acid dark brown to red sandy loam. The western edge is mostly a river flood plain and swamp but an extensive land area on the eastern shore of Lake Segara has potential for large scale irrigation. The main cash crop is tobacco. In the woodland, there is high tsetse-fly infestation which limits cattle raising.

7. The Southern Zone covers the southern third of the Region and 65% of its area is forest reserve. A majority of soils belong to medium acid dark brown to red sandy loam groups. This zone is also about 70% tsetse infested. Tobacco is the major cash crop and planting of tobacco is increasing due to two recently established tobacco complexes financed by the World Bank Group and to newly settled tobacco villages organized by the Tobacco Authority of Tanzania (TAT). Maize, paddy and groundnuts are major subsistence crops throughout the zone.

8. The Central (Tabora) Zone is in the geographic center of the Region surrounding Tabora town. The zone is ecologically similar to the Western zone except for the absence of forest reserves. There are two reservoirs, Igombe for Tabora town, and Kazima. The latter could provide irrigation to about 100 ha of vegetables, fruits and paddy. This zone has the advantage of easy access to market for milk, vegetables, fruits, poultry and cereals.

9. The North-West Zone is the main paddy producing area of the Region because a large area in this zone has the soil and low-lying terrain necessary for successful paddy cultivation. The South-eastern part has good potential for tobacco growing while the area in the north is suitable for cotton. Nearly 80% of this area is tsetse free and has good range land which is, however, being overgrazed.

10. The Central Eastern Zone covers Central and South-eastern Nzega and Central eastern Tabora District. There are good cotton producing alluvial black soils in the north and a substantial area in the south-western part, adjacent to forest land, is suitable for tobacco. Low rainfall limits maize yields in most of the zone.

11. The North-East Zone lies in the Manonga plain. It has predominantly black cotton soils and is a major cotton growing area of the Region. The zone is tsetse free, and the cattle density is high. Cattle numbers need to be reduced to avoid continued overgrazing and such a reduction would also facilitate increases in cotton cultivation. ANNEX I Page 4

B. Crop Production

12. Tobacco, cotton and paddy are major cash crops, while maize, sorghum, groundnuts, and cassava are primary subsistence crops in the Region. Production trends (Table 3), present crop-husbandry and yield levels, major constraints in increased production, and the potential yield levels of important crops in the Region are discussed below.

Tobacco

13. Tobacco was introduced into the Region by the Overseas Food Cor- poration in early 1950. Initially the production was utilized for local cigarette manufacture only, but since the opening of the export market, the flue-cured tobacco production in the Region has increased from 4.4 million kg in 1968-69 to 10 million kg in 1973-1974 (i.e., an increase of 127%). The crop is produced by 23,000 smallholder families who grow and cure the crop on an individual or group basis. Tobacco is usually grown in a five-year rotation alternating with food crops. The average smallholder farmer in Tabora produces only 600-650 kg/ha of saleable tobacco.

14. The favorable agro-climatic conditions in the Region offer a great potential for tobacco expansion, and the IDA Credit sanctioned in 1971 for a flue-cured Project had as its main objective the settlement of some 15,000 new tobacco growers, of which 10,000 were to be in Tabora Region. The Proj- ect aimed at increased production of flue-cured tobacco in Tanzania by about 9 million kg by 1978, of which about 6 million kg would be in Tabora Region. The progress of this Project, however, has been much slower than expected, production is lagging 3 years behind schedule, and the Project has been extended to December 1977. The main constraints have been associated with the settlement aspect of the Project including delays in construction of village water supplies; slow recruitment of farmers; and smaller areas cultivated per family than anticipated. Yields per unit of land have been low and stagnant due to shortage of extension staff. The Project is now picking up momentum. In this Project, only the pilot fuelwood component (Annex 6) and a minor assistance to tobacco research touches on tobacco production.

Cotton

15. Cotton production is concentrated in Nzega and Igunga Districts and primarily in the Manonga Valley. Due to fluctuations in the areas sown, production in the last 10 years has been uneven, but in 1974 exceeded 14,000 tons (Table 3). In the north-eastern part of Manonga Valley, with the help of ox-ploughs, 5 to 8 ha of cotton are cultivated annually per family while in the western Manonga and Igunga, average cotton plots vary between 1 and 2 ha per family. Use of oxen for tillage is also common. Sowing is done in November-December, while picking commences in May and continues up to July. At the present, crop husbandry is poor, characterized by late planting at sub-optimal spacing, poor thinning and inadequate weeding, no use ANNEX 1 Page 5 of chemical fertilizers and very little use of insecticides. Yields range from 300-1000 kg/ha with an average of about 500 kg/ha of seed cotton. Considerable increase in cotton production in the Region is therefore feasible by improving husbandry methods (Annex 2, para. 7 (a)) and increasing inputs. There is also scope for area expansion as presently only 30,000 ha (20%) of the total 150,000 ha of suitable black cotton soils are under cotton. Some of the major constraints to cotton production have been unreliable rainfall, competition with livestock and with other crops like maize, and lack of adequate research and extension services.

Paddy

16. Although Tabora Region is estimated to have produced about 30% of the national paddy, crop statistics are often inconsistent. The estimated production has fluctuated between 16,000 to 43,000 tons in the past 9 years (Table 3). Regional paddy production is concentrated in Igunga and Nzega Districts where most of the farmers follow a nursery/transplanting system which offers considerable savings on weedings. The nurseries are sown in late October and early November and transplanting is done after 4 to 6 weeks to coincide with the first rains. Bunds for controlling and holding water are also established just before transplanting. Native varieties are commonly grown in natural depressions (mbugas). Use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides is not in vogue and all cultivating and harvesting is done by hand. The average yield in the Region is about 1000 kg/ha but varies considerably throughout: the highest yields reported are about 2,000 kg/ha and the lowest about 500 kg/ha. There is considerable potential for increasing paddy production both by expansion of area in western Nzega and in Urambo District (where, in addition to suitable soils, rainfall is fairly assured) and by increasing yield per unit of land by introducing improved agronomic practices (Annex 2, Para. 7 (b)). Major constraints, however, are lack of research information and extension services.

Maize

17. Maize is grown extensively throughout the Region, mainly as a subsistence crop. Estimated average regional maize production in the last 8 years (Table 3) is about 49,000 tons. Maize is usually the first crop planted at the onset of the rainy season. Interplanting of groundnuts and beans with maize is a common practice. Except for the Manonga Valley where ox-ploughing is done, all land preparation, planting and cultivation is by hand using a heavy bladed hoe. Most farmers use local seed varieties and do not use insecticide or fertilizers. Thus, although the yield potential is 3,000 kg/ha the average yields obtained are in the range of 500-700 kg/ha, except for maize grown in rotation with tobacco where yields are about 1,000- 2,000 kg/ha due to residual fertilizer effects. As part of the National Maize Project (IDA Credit 606-TA), which became effective in mid-1976, maize production would be expanded in 43 villages of the Tabora and Urambo Districts by providing subsidized hybrid seed, insecticides and chemical fertilizers. The Tabora Rural Development Project would not involve further direct inputs ANNEX 1 Page 6 into maize production. In the North-east, the most serious constraint is marginal total rainfall (650-700 mm) while in the central Nzega, some pro- longed dry spells during growing season affect the yield and sometimes result in the failure of the crop. Therefore, in the areas affected by the crop component of this Project sorghum, rather than maize, should be encouraged.

Sorghum

18. Before the introduction of maize, sorghum was extensively grown in the low rainfall areas of the North-east in Igunga and Nzega Districts. However, as maize is generally a preferred food, it has tended to replace sorghum. The estimated annual average harvested production in the Region during the last 6 years has been about 16,000 tons (Table 3). Sorghum is grown in mixed cultivation with other crops and is often planted with the onset of rains in November on a cloddy seedbed on the black clay soils. No chemical fertilizers and insecticides are used. Thinning and weeding are usually by hand. Harvesting commences in March-April. Yields range between about 300 and 2000 kg/ha but the average is estimated at 500 kg/ha. So far, no steps have been taken to introduce improved varieties and associated improved agronomic practices. Sorghum is adapted to a wide range of ecological conditions. Its great merit is its drought resistance and it would produce good yields of grain under conditions which are unfavorable for other cereals. Therefore, encouraging sorghum production under improved husbandry (Annex 2, Para. 7 (c)) would be profitable in the Nzega and Igunga Districts.

Groundnuts

19. The Urambo ward of Tabora Region was the site of one of the Overseas Food Corporation's large groundnut schemes. Statistics of groundnut production in the Region prior to 1969-70 are not available, but the estimated average annual production in the last 5 years is 9,000 tons of shelled nuts (Table 3). Much of the production has been from the dry areas of the cental Nzega. Groundnuts are often grown in rotation with cotton, tobacco, maize and other cereals, and are usually grown late in the rotation and cultivated by hand. Fertilizers and pesticides are not used. The average yields under the present management levels are 300-400 kg shelled/ha, but it is possible to obtain a level of 600 kg/ha under advanced management (Annex 2, Para. 7 (d)). The main constraints are insufficient extension staff, lack of research information and unattractive prices paid to farmers.

C. Agricultural Research Requirements

20. The Ministry of Agriculture is in charge of the national research network covering the major agro-economic zones of the country. Nine agricultural research stations with their associated experiment sub-stations are engaged with crop research activities. The Tabora Region is served for cotton by the Western Research Station at Ukiriguru and by the sub-station at Mwanhala, located just south of Nzega. The Tumbi Research Station, nine km west of Tabora, caters for Tobacco Research. The Region has received little ANNEX 1 Page 7 or no attention in the field of food crops, no trials have been conducted at all on paddy, sorghum, and groundnuts. In view of the serious dearth of research information,it is important that on a long-termbasis, the national research network should identify basic research concerning breeding, agronomy and plant protection. However, in the shorter term, adaptive research should be carried out on the Regional station and farmer's fields by the Regional extension staff under the guidance of National and Regional research staff. Requirements of adaptive research on cotton, paddy, sorghum and groundnuts are briefly outlined as follows:

Cotton

21. The recommendationof planting the UK 64 variety in Tabora Region is based upon trials carried out some 15 years ago at Ukiriguru. New variety trials, together with time of planting, spacing and weeding observationsneed to be introduced in Igunga and Nzega. Trials at Ukiriguru indicated the superiority of endosulfan applied using ultra low volume (ulv) battery powered hand sprayers. Similar trials should be replicated in Igunga and Nzega with particular reference to type and timing of insect attack so as to formulate optimal spraying regimes and to replace the present recommendationsfor pest control using DDT, Sevin and Diomethoateby the conventionalknapsack sprayers in a six to eight spray regime. In view of the high cost of oil-based spray, research should also be extended to use of water-solubleULV sprays, and to techniques of insect counts to establish optimum timing. Since responses to fertilizershave not been accurately determined for the Black Cotton soils of this Region, systematic trials to investigateoptimum doses of chemical fertilizersand their methods of application should be carried out under farmers' field conditions.

Paddy

22. The main paddy research center in Tanzania is at Katrin (Kilombero Valley) in the Morogoro Region where breeding and genetic programs for improved variety, agronomic and fertilizer trials are underway for that region. Due to different agro-climaticconditions, the results of Katrin trials cannot be successfullytransferred directly to Nzega and Igunga Districts. A fresh adaptive research pilot program needs to be initiated specificallyfor agro- climatic conditions of Tabora to develop improved productionpossibilities. This program should include testing of variety performance,fertilizer responses and optimum husbandry practiceswith special reference to moisture conservationby bunding, optimum plant populations,and split applicationof nitrogen.

Sorghum

23. Sorghum varieties which yield over 50-60% more than local varieties and are well adapted to regional climatic conditions are being tested at Ukiriguru for cultivationabove 900 m. These varieties should be tested under Igunga and Nzega conditions and the apparent superiorityof these improved varieties should be further checked by observationof their response to improved agronomicpractices such as early planting, close spacing, increased weedings and stalk borer control. Fertilizer response studies should ANNEX 1 Page 8 be initiated with particular reference to the economics of application, and the form of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers suited to Black Cotton soils of the Region.

Groundnuts

24. The recently introduced improved large seeded Bukene variety has a somewhat superior kernel compared to the local Mwitunde variety which is, however, somewhat more resistant to Rosette disease. The future research program should, in addition to variety testing, focus on time of planting, spacing, seed dressing and incidence and control of Cercospora leaf spot disease. Response to fertilizers, especially phosphorous and sulfer, and the economic aspects of fertilizer application under farmers' field conditions needs to be investigated to formulate packages of improved practices.

D. Agricultural Extension and Other Services

25. Agricultural extension services in the Region are organized crop- wise, for tobacco by the TAT, for cotton by the Tanzania Cotton Authority (TCA) and for all other crops, by the Ministry of Agriculture (Kilimo). The present strength of the total Regional extension staff is 308.

Kilimo TAT TCA Total

Senior Field Officers (SFO) 1 1 5 2 Field Officers (FO) 16 4 - 25 Assistant Field Officers (AFO) 60 145 - 205 Field Assistants (FA) 46 - 30 76

Total 123 150 35 308

26. At present there is sufficient contact staff for a ratio of 1:500 farm families. However, in general, the extension staff is either inadequately trained, inexperienced or both. The Field Assistants (FA) are primary school leavers and have received no formal training except short in-service instructions in some specific activity (like maize production). Their usefulness, therefore, is very limited. The Assistant Field Officers (AFOs) have undergone two or three years of diploma or certificate course after secondary school. They are usually young men, lacking practical experience and are not familiar with local agricultural conditions. The Field Officers (FOs) and Senior Field Officers (SFOs) are university graduates with varying experience but they are few in number. Poor communications, lack of transport facilities, absence of research information to formulate improved agronomic recommendations and deficiencies in marketing, input supply and credit aggravate the situation and help to render the present extension service ineffective. ANNEX 1 Page 9

27. These problems may be further compounded by recent changes in the organization of extension which Governmert has initiated. The Field Assis- tants (FA), one being phased out and indications are that the village level contact will in future be a villager to be selected from the village by the Village Council and trained in extension work. These new appointees will have very litt:Le formal education and no prior training of modern agricultural technology or extension methods and would be inexperienced in his job. Under the new setup, one AFO (possibly on ward level) would be responsible for supervising and guiding three village-level workers.

28. Under the Tobacco Industry Act of 1972, the Tobacco Authority of Tanzania (TAT) was established as a parastatal body to promote tobacco production and its sale for domestic use and export. TAT organizes supervisory service extension, and supply of subsidized inputs for tobacco growers and provides improved facilities for curing, grading and baling of tobacco. The primary tobacco cooperative societies act as TAT's agent in buying tobacco from the growers.

29. The Tanzania Cotton Authority (TCA) established as a parastatal body in 1973, is charged with the responsibility of promoting cotton industry. TCA organizes seed and input supply, marketing of seeds cotton, ginning, seed crushing, marketing and exporting of cotton lint. TCA also operates three seed multiplication centers in Nzega District. TCA subsidizes 50% of the price of fertilizers, spray chemicals and sprayers and supplies the inputs. The Tabora Region Cooperative Union (TRCU) used to act as an agent for TCA, buying and ginning the cotton. In view of legislation under the new Village Act (Para. 35), the situation would now change. In the Tabora Region, TCA has 5 Senior Field Officers concerned with the management of the ginnery and with the assistance of 30 Field Assistants, are engaged in the insecticide spreying campaign.

Training for Agricultural Services

30. Tumbi research station and training institute conducts a two-years training program mainly for tobacco extension staff of TAT. The current output of this institute is 30 trainees per year, but it is expected to expand to about 60 in 1977/78. There are two rural training centers, one at Mwahala in Nrega and the other at Urambo where general training is organized for extension staff and farmers. The National plan for training general agricul- turalists at AFO level envisages a yearly turnout of about 300 by 1978, but due to competition from other Regions, projects and agricultural parastatal organizations, only 5 to 8 trained extension staff would be assigned annually to Tabora Region. Recently all except five of the Rural Training Centers have been transferred from Kilimo to the Ministry of Education and con- verted into Folk Development Colleges. The remaining five Training Centers are under the Prime Minister's Office and are functioning as Village Manage- ment Training Centers. During this transition period, the training program is likely to get a setback and could be an important constraint on agricultural development programs. Adding to this is the need to train hundreds of village-level workers (para. 27) and it would appear that special measures should be taken at Regional level to provide a local short-term training program. ANNEX I Page 10

31. There is an acute shortage of trained accountants and bookkeepers in the newly formed village societies. Under the Fifth Education Project (IDA 607-TA) which became effective from March 1976, Technical Assistance has been provided for the rationalizationand detailed planning of training of villagers in accounts, bookkeeping and audits. At this stage, the output of trainees is uncertain and it is also not known when the first batch will be available.

E. Marketing and Price Policy

32. Marketing: Maize, sorghum and groundnuts are primarily produced as subsistence crops. Small surpluses are sold by the smallholdersdirectly in nearby markets to the merchants or consumers, or were sold through the primary cooperativesto the Tabora Regional CooperativeUnion (TRCU) which acted as buying agent of the National Milling Corporation (NMC) for maize and sorghum and of the General AgriculturalProducts Export Corporation (GAPEX) for groundnuts. Paddy is grown as a cash grain crop and was sold to NMC through TCRU. The Village Act of 1975 (Para. 35) and subsequent changes in the cooperativeorganization throws a cloak of uncertaintyover the present and future structure of organized marketing, channels for village lending and crop finance, and the role of villages in credit, input delivery and marketing. At present, the Regional Unions disbanded, the role of the parastatals is being enlarged but discussion is repeated on the possibility of creating a Regional intermediaryparastatal or forming groups of villages to economize on services.

33. The primary cooperative societies used to purchase seed cotton from producers at the buying stations located at strategic villages throughout the cotton producing area. It was then marketed to the Regional Cooperative Union and delivered to the ginnery which was owned by the CooperativeUnion. TCA became the owner of the cotton lint at the ginnery, and sold the lint by private treaty and by auctions held at Dar es Salaam. Presumably TCA will now purchase directly from village societies, and will take over the former Union facilities for processing.

34. The Union was not involved in tobacco marketing and the existing system is expected to continue. Tobacco is purchased from the producers by primary societies (the largest of which is the Tabora Tobacco Grower's (TTG) Agriculture Production Cooperativewhich represents over 10,000 farmers) and is sold to TAT direct. TAT then transports it in its own or hired vehicles to Morogoro for processing by the Tanzania Tobacco Processing Company (TTPC). After processing,TTPC consigns exports to Dar es Salaam, but the crop remains TATs responsibilityuntil sale FOB.

35. Price Policy: Agriculturalproducts are purchased at prices fixed by Governmentafter intermittentreviews. The producers' prices of selected crops during 1968-76are summarized in Table 4. The price (in current terms) of food crops have been significantlyincreased (by 150%) to encourage production to meet shortagesof food supply and to minimize imports. Producer ANNEX 1 Page 11 prices of cash crops are now generally quite related to world market prices and cotton and flue-cured tobacco prices have been raised by 92% and 43% respectivelyduring the last 7 years.

F. The Village Act, 1975

36. Under the villagizationprogram, the rural populationof Tabora Region has been concentratedinto about 380 settlementvillages, each village having about 250-500 families with an average of about five members in each family. The Villages and Ujamaa Villages (Registration,Designation and Administration)Act of 1975, makes provision for the registrationof these villages by a Registrar (who is effectively the Regional DevelopmentDirec- tor) a step which confers legal status and considerablepowers on a village. Under the Act, the village is deemed to be a cooperativesociety and the former cooperativesocieties cannot operate within a village except with the consent of the Minister.

37. The Act requires every registeredvillage to have a village assembly made up of all persons of 18 years or over, and a Village Council elected by the village assembly which would consist of not more than 25 adults of 21 years or older, resident in the village. The Village Council is empowered to do "all such acts and things as are necessary or expedient for the economic and social developmentof the village" and in particular it can plan and coordinate the work of villages engaged in agriculture or other activities.

38. The Village Council is required to establish five committees each of not more than five members of the Council, to cover Finance and Planning; Production and Marketing; Education, Culture and Social Welfare; Work and Transport; and Security and Defence. Every Village Council is required to establish three funds which may be financed from fees, gifts, grants or borrowing, i.e., (a) a capital fund for capital expenditure, (b) a reserve fund against which contingencycharges may be met and (c) a disposablefund which may be used for any other purpose. A Village Council is required to prepare an annual statement of accounts which are to be audited by a person authorized by the Registrar at least once every year.

39. A village may be designated an Ujamaa Villagewhen it is established that a substantialportion of the economic activities of the village are being undertaken on a communal basis. The Village Council would own all heavy agriculturalmachinery and other capital goods, includingstorage facilities and transport, and is required to acquire any such machinery and capital owned by individual residents in the village. Livestock and small farm tools and equipment may remain the property of individuals. Every resident of the village is required to give a contributionby work or otherwise, to communal activities or enterprisesin the village. ANNEX 1 Page 12

40. Thus the Act and the initial subsidiary legislationgive enormous power to the Village Council including virtually unlimited control over villagers' agriculturaland other pursuits. It remains to be seen how far this power is exercised. It seems that if the provisions of the Act are to be fully effective,virtually all rural developmentefforts will have to focus on the villages and success or otherwise will largely depend on the capacity of the Village Council. However, the conditionsfor registrationof villages are not stringent and registrationdoes not in itself give any control over economic viability. ANNEX I Table 1

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Av. Maximum and Minimum Temperatures and Rainfall in the Tabora Region

Temrerature Rainfall. Mean Fean Monthly -Average Maximum Minimum Average 2/ days of Rain °C °C mms

January 27.6 17.4 136 16

February 28.1 17.5 125 14

March 28.0 17.4 161 15

April 27.7 17.3 40 13

May 27.8 16.3 33 4

June 27.9 14.8 3 0

July 28.2 14.6 - 0

August 29.4 15.8 - 0

September 31.0 17.6 4 1

October 32.1 18.9 14 3

November 30.7 18.8 81 13

December 28.0 17.7 184 20

Year 28.9 17.0 Total: 795 99

1/ Source Kilimo

2/ 30 year average IANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Agroeconomic Zones in Tabora*

Western Zone Southern Zone Central Zone Northwest Zone Central East Zone Northeast Zone Total

1. Poulation (1973) 108,000 2! 39,300 60,oo0 98,600 203,000 122,000 630,Oo0

2, Wards 8) 'JIyankulu, Tbiri (61 Sikonge, "ibono, (7) Kal.nde Urambo, (14) BuKombi, Mambali, (18)Upuge, Kissengi, (7) MbWtu, Igunga 61 yowa, Irambo, Kaliua Kitu-da, Kipili, Mabama, Ilalangulu, Karitu, Isanzu, Itobo, Imalaseko, Page, Ndogo Kininginila, Igurubi 'snoke, T1singe, Ndono Chabutwa, Tutnlo, Itetemia, Mtendeni Kasela, Mwasala, Igusule, Nata, Itumba, Nyasa Kiningu, Mwashikili, Misha Mwangoye, BuKene, Uduka, Itwigu, Chabultwa, Ndala, Choma Kahama, Nalcalanga, Magengati Simbo, Miguava, Mwiti, Nikiniziwa,Lsuo,gbogwe, 2 2 Tongi , Ziba 3. Total area 21,300 Km2 23,000 Km 3,000 Km. 5,000 Km a. -Forest 8,Soo Fe 2 15,000 Km2 2 32 000 _2 70 15,000 KM 1,300 K.-70 1,500 112300 s P70,0O b., Arable 7,500 Km2 150G0 Km2 I,700 Km2 2 2 3,000 Km2 0,500 Km 2,000 Km 7 (24,900 km2)

4. Crops (73/74) ha Yieldf kg/ha _ ha lYigid ip /ha ha ha Yield kg ha Yield kg/ha ha Yield kg/ha ha- Yield kg7ha ha a. Tobacco 15,1 650 1,100 ¢55 1,077 ¢50 _ --_T_ 1 2 650 __ 15,531 b1 Maize 22,000 ,000 8000 800 7,800 860 10,500 850 28,000 870 __ __ 75,800 o.Sorghu------1,600 i- 860 11,600 d. Seed Catto ______350 570 400 570 24,o00 580 24,750 e Paddy 10,000 1,200 2 , 000 2,100 2,000 1,200 8,100 1,200 6, 800 1,200 1,600 1,180 30,500 f. O nfts 7,500 400(5hell d) 1,000 400(.helle 1,100 ) 4oo(Shelle ) 3,900 300 (Shelled) 15,600 400(Shelled) __ __ 29,100 g Cassava/veg. 20,000 1,500 7,500 1,200 7,200 1,333 10, 000 1,200 19,000 1,260 4,000 1,200 67,700 Total 72, 00 20,000 19,000 32,000 71,000 41,200 255,000

5. Rainfall in. sm 1,000 - 1,100 860 - 950 850 - 950 850 950 750 - 860 650 - 750 -- 6. Cattle 5,0000 6oc 60U,000 160 ,000 365,000 290,000 950,000 (total) 7. Cattle dips 3 3 5 6 4 2 23 8. Maize/ PaddyMi]]s 20 6 10(Exclusive Tabora 11 12 6 65 9. 1~tc,age2 wa'0'c-e~and ith 8wit), 9~rj .2 ijwn~ 2 9. 'torage and 52 warehoulsos wito a withl 930 m 24 withl,0 60h4 2 2 15 with 2,395 m 37 witlh 1,395 a 26 with 2,278 m 162 with 13,438 2 Processing Facility 5,580 m2 capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity capacity

10. Ext. staff housni g 50 unitf 9 units 10 units 9 units 28 units 17 units 123 units I1. Av. Annual net income/fami]y 2,203 To). 990 Tsh 493 Tsh 412 Toh 460 Tsh 870 Tsh __ /$265)- ($19 ($60) ' S5 ($55) ($105) A feasibility study of the development poten ial and feeder road improvents in the-rokosult TaOra Regin B Report - 1975 (Draft) Includes 34,000 Refugees in Illyankulu Ward (now estimated 55,000) 1/ In this region only Io*of the arable land is under cultivation.

April 12, 1976 Table 2 TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Past Production of Important Crops in the Tabora-V Region

Groundnuts Year Tobacco Cotton Paddy Maize Sorghum shelled (million kg) (MT ) (MT ) ( MT) (MT) (MT)

1965-66 4,900 32,000 80,000

1966-67 9,700* 18,000 62,000

1967-68 - 8,900* 43,000 78,000 -

1968-69 4.4 5,300* 30,800 53,000 16,500

1969-70 4.7 10,200* 26,000 30,000 20,000 8,500

1970-71 4.3 13,100* 16,000 30,000 20,000 1,700

1971-72 6.5 10,700 35,500 28,000 8,000 10,000

1972-73 7.0 10,100 17,600 30,000 11,645 15,000

1973-74 10.0 14,100 na na 20,000 10,000

1/ Source: Kilimo 2/ Source: TAT 3/ Source: TCA

* Includes (Nzega and) Kahoma District. TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Producer Prices of Selected Crops 1968-1976 (T.Shs./per MT )

Crop 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1 increase in 1976 over 1968

Seed Cotton (AR) 1,060 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,130 1,130 1,500 1,750 2,000 88.7

(BR) 510 550 550 550 600 600 650 850 1,000 96.0

Flue-Cured Tobacco 5,160 5,150 5,060 4,940 5,800 5,850 6,400 7,000 7,400 43.4

Maize 265 275 250 242 264 350 500 750 800 201.9

Sorghum 294 296 350 370 388 500 550 800 900 206.1

Paddy 472 517 580 524 565 570 650 800 1,000 111.9

Groundnuts (Shelled) 892 935 1,068 938 1,116 1,150 1,500 2,000 2,500 170.2

Cassava (Dry) 281 183 206 211 220 310 360 400 450 60.1

1/ Sources: 1966-75 Tanzania Agricultural Rural Development Sector Study. Volume III, Table 38.

1976 - Country Economist - Tanzania. ANNEX 2

TANZANIA

TABORARURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Crop Development

A. Introduction: Constraints on Agricultural Development Para. 1

B. Sub-Project Proposal - Agricultural Development

Objective Para. 2 Sub-Project Approach Para. 3 The Sub-Project Components Para. 4 Sub-Project Description Para. 5 Supply of Inputs Para. 9 Labor Availability Para. 10 Improved Extension Service Para. 11 Assistance to the Tumbi Tobacco Research Station Para. 13 Sub-Project Implementation Para. 14

C. Sub-Project Costs and Benefits Para. 15

D. Economic Rate of Return Para. 18

Table 1: Cotton Ha Budget Table 2: Paddy Ha Budget Table 3: Sorghum Ha Budget Table 4: Groundnut Ha Budget Table 5: Cotton Production (With and Without Project) Table 6: Paddy Production (With and Without Project) Table 7: Sorghum Production (With and Without Project) Table 8: Groundnuts Production (With and Without Project) Table 9: Farm Inputs for Cotton (With Project) Table 10: Farm Inputs for Paddy (With Project) Table 11: Farm Inputs for Sorghum (With Project) Table 12: Farm Inputs for Groundnuts (WqithProject) Table 13: Man days Labor Required for ProDosed Cropping Under the Sub-Project Table 14: Agricultural Development - Implementation Schedule Table 15: Farm Model I: Cotton/Sorghum/Groundnuts Table 16: Farm Model II: Paddy/Sorghum/Groundnuts Table 17: Farm Model III: Cotton/Sorghum/Groundnuts/Cattle Table 18: Farm Model III: Paddy/Sorghum/Groundnuts/Cattle

ANNEX 2 Page 1

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Crop Development

Aa Introduction: Constraints on Agricultural Development

1. Realization of the agricultural potential of Tabora Region is .irlted by the following major constraints:

(a) The current crop-husbandry practices (use of local seed, late planting, improper plant population, lack of fertilizer use and plant protection measures) contribute to low average yields per unit of land.

(b) Most of the extension service staff are generally inexperienced and are not well trained. Lack of mobility, poor extension organization and methods render the existing service ineffective. The effectiveness of the weak extension service is further reduced by:

(i) a dearth if the adaptive research information essential for formulating recommendations of improved agronomic practices. No attempts have been made to introduce improved high yielding varieties of paddy, sorghum and groundnuts nor have any trials been conducted to investigate suitable cultural practices for these crops for maximum yields;

(ii) a lack of good roads and a communications system. The greatest demand for assistance and guidance from the extension service by the farmers is in the growing season which coincides with the wet season when roads are in poor condition and in many areas are impassable.

(d) Delays in the purchase of crops due to lack of timely crop financing and to poor organization of the parastatals.

(e) In most new villages, the demand for storage exceeds the availability, and cotton, tobacco and grain crops deteriorate when not stored properly, with consequent losses in value. ANNEX 2 Page 2

B. Sub-Project Proposal - Agricultural Development

Objective

2. The proposed agricultural development component is an attempt to remove some of the key constraints and provide a basis for the Region to develop its agricultural potential at village level. It comprises a pilot program designed to establish means of promoting agricultural productivity in the Nzega and Igunga Districts of the Tabora Region and provide a basis for further development on a larger scale at a later date. The main objective is to find means of intensifying the production of cotton, paddy, sorghum and groundnuts by use of inputs, improving agricultural extension and other related services, and conducting large scale crop demonstrations and test trials under the farmers' field conditions. This program would directly benefit about 6,000 smallholder families in these two Districts.

Sub-Project Approach

3. The choice of the Nzega and Igunga Districts - which are relatively densely populated and inhabited principally by the livestock owners who are also engaged in a variety of crop production - has been made because these two Districts have received little attention for agricultural development, except for a minor component of the Bank-Group financed second livestock Project. Directly encouraging an agricultural production oriented project in newly established villages, which are not already embraced in Bank aided development 1/, is intended to supplement and complement the ongoing development in the Region. In view of the lack of relevant research data to make specific recommendations on improved agronomic practices for increased crop production, a pilot approach is proposed, where large scale crop demonstrations- cum-trials would be laid under farmers' field conditions to test the impact of already known improved agronomic practices extrapolated from the experience elsewhere with similar conditions. Experience over the initial years of the project together with the results of field trials and demonstrations would provide basis and guidance for a future agricultural program in these and other areas of the Region.

The Sub-Project Components

4. To intensify the production of cotton, paddy, sorghum and groundnuts on a flexible, pilot, basis in about 30 already established, high potential, villages of the Nzega and Igunga Districts, the sub- project would provide:

1/ The other two Districts, Urambo and Tabora are receiving Bank Group assistance for the development of flue-cured tobacco under the Flue- cured Tobacco Project and for increasing maize production in 43 villages under the National Maize Project. ANNEX 2 Page 3

(a) An experienced agronomist/planner who would organize the program and who would also strengthen the agricultural p anning capacity of the Region;

(D' An extension training officer to organize and conduct a training program for village level extension staff;

(c) A mobile extension team headed by a field agronomist to conduct a large numoer of crop-denonstrations-cum- trials under farmers' field conditions;

(d) A Field Officer (FO) with housing and transport in each of the two Districts;

(e) 10 additional extension agents (AFO), so that there would be one AFO per 3 Project villages, each provided with housing and transport under the Project;

(f) Subsidized farm inputs to participating farmers in all the Project villages; and

(g) Storage facilities for inputs and produce in each of the Project villages.

It would also provide:

(h) Personnel and laboratory equipment, which could not be put in place under the Flue-cured Tobacco Project, Credit 217-TA, to supplement Tobacco Research at the Tumbi Research Station.

Sub-Project Description

5. The first step would be the selection of 30 villages, about 15 each in the Nzega and Igunga Districts. The suitability of a village for Project assistance would be agreed by the Project agronomist and the staff of the District Development Director. Criteria for selection would be that the village be registered under the Villages Act, 1975; that it has a trained village secretary, and bookkeeper; assured water supply and access roads; and has provided a suitable candidate as the village extension officer. In due course, the Land Planning Unit would also prepare a village plan as the basis for outlining the land-use development for the selected villages (Annex 9).

6. The proposed crops, and cumulated numbers of villages and expected farmer participation is indicated below: ANNEX 2 Page 4

Project Year District Crop 1 2 3 4 5

Igunga Cotton/sorghum/ No. of villages - 6 15 15 15 groundnuts No. of farmers - 200 1000 2000 3000

Nzega Paddy/sorghum/ No. of villages - 6 15 15 15 groundnuts No. of farmers - 200 1000 2000 3000

Adopting farmers are assumed to rise to 50-55% of the total farmers in each of the villages 1/.

7. The agronomic practices which would be the basis of an extension package proposed for advanced management are only tentatively established-- thus the pilot nature of this component--and would need to be modified in the light of experience and according to changes in cost/return ratios. The currently recommended packages applicable to Tabora Region are:

(a) Cotton: Sowing of an improved variety (UK 64, until a better one is found) in the last week of November and first week of December on 90 cm wide contour ridges (to help soil moisture conservation); planting 6-10 seeds per hole at a distance of 35 cm, and thinning to only two healthy plants at each stand; frequent weeding; applying 100 kg/ha of Triple Super Phosphate at the time of ridging, and 100 kg/ha of Sulphate of Ammonia 6 weeks after sowing, (with placement along the ridge about 5 cm away from the plant); and spraying ten weeks after sowing with Endosulfan and Hostathion, six times at 2 week intervals. This management is estimated to give an average yield of 1000 kg seed cotton per ha and a net return (excluding labor) of TSh 1543 per ha as summarized below and detailed in cotton-ha budget (Table 1).

Level of Husbandry (with Project at (without Project) full development) Traditional Advanced Level

Yield of seed cotton (kg/ha) 500 1,000 Gross return (TSh/ha) 775 1,800 Input costs (TSh/ha) (Subsidized) - 257 Labor costs (Man days/ha) 110 176 Net return excluding labor (TSh/ha) 775 1,543 Return to labor (TSh/man day) 7 8.8 Return to incremental labor (TSh/man day) - 9.7 Return to incremental input (%) 221

1/ About 250 to 500 farmers are grouped in a village, with an average of some 375 families per village. ANNEX 2 Pa5e 5

(b) Paddy: There are no local experimental results. Generally a higher than traditional plant population is desirable, as is early transplanting (late January and early February) of healthy seedlings on hills and planting of 5-6 seeds per station at a spacing of 15 x 15 cm. Bunding to conserve moisture, frequent weeding and a top dressing of 200 kg of Sulphate of Ammoniia per ha split in two applications (The first half applied at maximum tillering and second just prior to panicle initiation) are also recommended. TIese practices would give a yield of 2000 kg paddy/ha and a net re-turn (excluding labor) of TSh 1842 as sumrmn:rizedbelow and detailed in the paddy/ha budget (fabie 2).

Level of Husbandry (with Project at (without Project) full development) Traditional Advanced Level

Yield of paddy (kg/ha) 1,000 2,000 Gross return (TSh/ha) 1,000 2,800 Input costs (TSh/ha) (Subsidized) 50 158 Labor costs (Man days/ha) 140 174 Net return excluding labor (TSh/ha) 950 1,842 Return to labor (TSh/man day) 6.8 10.6 Return to incremental labor (TSh/man day) - 26.2 Return to incremental input (%) - 517

(c) Sorghum: Early planting of high yielding varieties from Ukiriguru, as a pure stand, with a seed rate of 12 kg/ha and spacing of 15 x 60 cm; and application of 50 kg Triple Super Phosphate and 150 kg Sulphate of Ammonia per ha is estimated to give an average yield of 1,500 kg/ha and a net return (excluding labor) of TSh 1174/ha as summarized below and detailed in Table 3.

Level of Husbandry (with Project at (without Project) full development) Traditional Advanced Level

Yield of sorghum grain (kg/ha) 500 1,500 Gross return (TSh/ha) 450 1,350 Input costs (TSh/ha) (Subsidized) 7 176 Labor costs (Man days/ha) 120 156 Net return excluding labor (TSh/ha) 443 1,174 Return to labor (TSh/man day) 3.7 7.5 Return to incremental labor (TSh/man day) - 20.3 Return to incremental input (%) - 439 ANNEX 2 Page 6

(d) Groundnuts: Planting as pure stand, with 2 rows to the 90 cm ridge with 10 cm between plants in the rows, and one seed per hole; adequate weeding and applying 100 kg of Triple Super Phosphate per ha is likely to give a yield of 600 kg shelled nuts per ha, and a net return (excluding labor) of TSh 1245 per ha, as summarized below and detailed in the groundnuts ha budget (Table 4).

Level of Husbandry

(with Project at (without Project) full development) Traditional Advanced Level

Yield of shelled nuts (kg/ha) 400 600 Gross return (TSh/ha) 1,000 1,500 Input costs (TSh/ha) (Subsidized) 100 255 Labor costs (Man days/ha) 145 175 Net return excluding labor (TSh/ha) 900 1,245 Return to labor (TSh/man day) 6.2 7.1 Return to incremental labor (TSh/man day) - 11.5 Return to incremental input (%) - 163

8. The quantities and values (at 1976 prices) of the incremental production in the Sub-Project are detailed in Tables 5, 6, 7, 8 and summarized below:

Project Year 1 2 3 4 5

Seed Cotton (MT) - 29 220 520 930

Total value (TSh) - 52,200 396,000 936,000 1,674,000

Paddy (MT) - 40 260 750 1,500 Value (TSh) - 40,000 260,000 750,000 1,500,000

Sorghum (MT) - 35 258 758 1,583 Value (Tsh) - 31,500 232,200 682,200 1,424,700

Groundnuts (MT) - 38 196 416 556 Value (Tsh) - 95,000 490,000 1,049,000 1,390,000

Supply of Inputs

9. For the cotton villages, TCA would continue to be responsible for distribution of improved seed and inputs for cotton, sorghum and groundnuts to the project farmers. For the paddy villages, however, Kilimo would arrange to provide improved seed of paddy, sorghum and groundnuts either ANNEX 2 Page 7 by obtaining these seeds from Ukiriguru or by organizing at village level, seed multiplication from the nucleus material from the Research Center. Where this is necessary, the Field Agronomist would be responsible for organizing seed multiplication on a scale adequate to ensure a sufficient and steady supply of improved seed to participating villages. Other inputs for paddy villages would be provided through TCA to each village cooperative. TCA is also expected to be responsible for crop collection in the Project area. Crop finance is obtained by TCA which recovers financing costs through the price structure. The details of estimated yearly requirements of the on-farm inputs for cotton, paddy, sorghum and groundnuts are presented in Tables 9, 10, 11 and 12, and are summarized below:

Project Year Unit 1 2 3 4 5

Cotton

Seed MT - 8 40 80 120 Triple Super Phosphate MT - 20 100 200 300 Sulphate of Ammonia MT - 20 100 200 300 Endosulfan L - 1,800 9,000 18,000 27,000 Hostathion L - 400 2,000 4,000 6,000 ULV Sprayers Nos. - 80 400 800 1,200

Paddy

Seed MT - 10 50 100 150 Sulphate of Ammonia MT - 40 200 400 600 DDT MT - 0.4 2.0 4.0 6.0

Sorghum

Seed MT - 10 52 104 156 Triple Super Phosphate MT - 13 65 130 195 Sulphate of Ammonia MT - 39 195 390 585 DDT MT - 3 13 26 39

Groundnuts

Seed MT - 8 42 84 126 Triple Super Phosphate MT - 12 60 120 180

Labor Availability

10. An estimate of labor "requirements" for important crops of the Region was made by Collinson 1/. The average family size is about five person (two adults and three children), equivalent to about 60 man days per month. Since the size of holding and cropping system is governed by the labor availability during the peak season, month by month requirement

1/ "Comparative Economics of Tobacco Production on Small Family Farm in Tabora Region" - Dar es Salaam, 1970. ANNEX 2 Page 8

of family labor has been worked out (Table 13) for the proposed cropping pattern under the Project area, as a check that labor would be available when needed in the crop year. Although this is a crude measure, the budgets appear feasible on the basis of available data.

Improved Extension Service

11. To achieve the projected yield increases, improved extension techniques are needed. The extension staff would carry research results to the farmers and bring back farmers problems to the research and thus provide the missing link between research and extension. Under the guidance of the Project agronomist and Senior Field Officer, and in association with the extension agronomist, the District Field Officer (DFO) would work out a detailed timetable for each of the Assistant Field Officers (AFO) who in turn would establish a program for his village level workers. Each DFO would be responsible for the work of 5 AFOs. Every month he would prepare a plan of work for the following month. He would spend a minimum of 10 days a month visiting his AFOs and the villages. Each visit would last a full day, and devote special attention to the particular crop prevalent in the village at the time of his visit. Each AFO would be responsible for the work of 3 village extension workers and would visit each in his village once a week on a fixed day and focus on a pre-determined topic. This would take up 3 days of the AFOs week. One day a week would be devoted to in-service training, and the remaining time to office work, (reporting farmers' problems to research), demonstration, and visiting farmers with special problems. Each village-level extension man would be responsible for advising the 300 + farmers of his village, and would, as far as possible, organize his contacts in groups of not more than 40-50 farmers. Each group should be contacted at least twice a month on a pre-determined program. The village worker would use carefully selected farmers and conduct demonstrations on their fields. To supplement this program, an experienced and qualified agronomist, in charge of a mobile unit would be provided for in the sub-project. He would be responsible to organize and conduct demonstrations-cum-test trials on cotton, paddy, sorghum and groundnuts; assemble, analyze and interpret the results; organize farmers' field days to popularize the results of the demonstrations; and impart on-the-spot training to the extension field staff.

12. On account of the probable changes in the village level extension staff (Annex 1, para. 7) and due to the uncertain state of the national extension training program (Annex 1, para. 29), and to avoid delays in Project implementation, the Project makes provision for an extension training officer who would be responsible for organizing and conducting a continuous training program for the Project extension staff. In the first year, he would conduct a six months classroom - cum practical training for the newly appointed village level workers from the Project villages and their AFOs. Shorter refresher and updating courses would be held in subsequent years, designed to integrate the training with the ongoing extension work of these village staff, so as to continuously improve the quality of extension staff at village level. ANNEX 2 Page 9

Assistance to the Tumbi Tobacco Research Station

13. Under the flue-cured tobacco Project (Credit 217-TA), funds were assigned for strengthening the Tumbi Research Station by providing for expatriate research staff and their housing, laboratories and equipment. The construction of laboratories has been completed but the research staff could not be recruited for want of housing and laboratory equipment could not be purchased for want of funds. Now that the houses and laboratories are available, the sub-project would make provision for one expatriate agronomist cum soil analyst and the laboratory equipment to pursue tobacco research at Tumbi and to train the national staff.

Sub-Project Implementation

14. Table 14 shows the implementation schedule for the Sub-Project.

C. Sub-Project Costs and Benefits

15. Costs: The total sub-project cost is estimated at TSh 31.8 million (US$3.8 million) of which TSh 23.8 million, i.e. 75% (US$2.0 million) represents foreign exchange requirements. These costs are detailed in Annex 10, Table 3 and summarized as follows:

Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total F.E. ------TSh'000 ------US$ '000) ----- %

(A) Capital Costs:

(i) Buildings 966 242 1,208 116 29 145 20 (ii) Vehicles 48 272 320 6 33 39 85 (iii) Lab Equipment 180 1,019 1,199 21 123 144 85

(B) Operating Costs:

(i) Salaries & allowances 2,290 4,988 7,278 276 601 877 69 1/ (ii) Maintenance of building 63 16 79 8 2 10 20 (iii) Vehicle operating costs 272 272 544 33 33 66 50 (iv) Maintenance of equipment 100 300 400 12 36 48 75

Total 5,639 16,853 22,492 679 2,031 2,710

1/ Salary of expatriate staff only. ANNEX 2 Page 10

16. Benefits: The gross value of annual incremental production of cotton, paddy, sorghum and groundnuts (Tables 5, 6, 7, 8) in 1976 current prices is estimated at TSh 6.0 million (US$0.7 million) at full development after year five. Farm family models for participating families are detailed in Tables 15 and 16 and summarized below:

Farm Model I - Cotton/Sorghum/Groundnuts (Farm Size 2.6 ha)

With Project Without Project Incremental per per per per per per family Capita family Capita family Capita

Net Cash Surplus (TSh) 2021 404 569 114 1452 290 Value of subsistence (TSh) 1650 330 1030 206 620 124 Total (TSh) 3671 734 1599 320 2072 414 Total (US$) 442 88 193 39 250 50

Farm Model II - Paddy/Sorghum/Groundnuts (Farm Size 2.3 ha)

With Project Without Project Incremental per per per per per per family Capita family Capita family Capita

Net Cash Surplus (TSh) 1902 380 684 137 1218 243 Value of subsistence (TSh) 1245 249 880 176 365 73 Total (TSh) 3147 629 1564 313 1583 316 Total (US$) 380 76 188 38 190 38

Thus the total income (net cash surplus and value of subsistence) of the participating farmers is projected to increase by 126% per family in cotton villages and 96% per family in paddy villages. Under the livestock development component of the Project (Annex 3), some farmers would participate in a stall feeding program, which would give an additional net benefit of TSh 100/family per year, adopting mixed farming in Nzega and Igunga (Tables 17 and 18).

17. A note on Size of Holdings and Area Cultivated: In the farm models, the area cultivated annually per family is assumed to be 2.3 to 2.6 ha, but the agricultural census results, suggest that holdings which would allow this would be among the largest in the Project area. 1/ However, there is some evidence that the census data are unreliable:

1/ Preliminary Census data indicate that 55% of all holdings in the Tabora Region are less than 1 ha, 25% are between 1 and 2 ha; about 10% between 2 and 3 ha; and that the Regional average is 1.34 ha. (IBRD Report No. 541a TA - 1974, Table 53). ANNEX 2 Page 11

(a) A sample survey in the Mwanza Region indicates that the number of land holdings of between 2 and 3 ha is 30-50% more than reported in the census.

(b) Apparently there is enough cultivable land even in the main sub-project area, for the cultivable area of holdings to average 12 ha, while, allowing for normal 4 ha. More- over the labor budgets for the proposed crop combination in the sub-project indicate that 2.3 to 2.6 ha could be managed by the available family labor.

(c) Based on their own observations Brokonsult 1/ in their report used an area of 2.2 to 3.2 ha actually cultivated annually per family.

(d) a minimum food intake to avoid clinical under-nutrition would be about 1800 calories and 29 gr. protein per head/day. There are no indications of such poor levels of nutrition in Tabora, yet families could not achieve this intake on the average holding suggested by the census - even if farmers were not additionally engaged in the cash economy.

D. Economic Rate of Return

18. The economic rate of return of the component is estimated to be 17% over 20 years. In this calculation, the Standard Conversion Factor for Tanzania (0.75) has been applied to domestic market prices for non-tradeables and to border prices, FOB or CIF adjusted for transport and handling between Dar es Salaam and Tabora, for tradeables. The costs were calculated from Annex 10, with the following changes:

(a) The Tumbi laboratory costs were excluded;

(b) In year 6, expatriate staff are assumed replaced by Tanzanian staff at TSh 40,000 per officer per year (with no foreign exchange cost);

1/ Brokonsult AB: A feasibility study of the development potential and feeder road improvements in the Tabora Region (1975). ANNEX 2 Page 12

(c) The economic cost of labor has been taken at TSh 5.85 per man day, equivalent to 40% of the official rural wage rate of TSh 14.60 per man day. 1/

The costs, broken down into capital, operating and farm input costs, are shown in Annex 10, Table 3.

19. In deriving benefits from incremental production, groundnuts and paddy were assumed import substitutes, cotton to be an export, and sorghum and cotton seed to be for local consumption. The farm-gate prices of groundnuts and paddy are their CIF values, and of cotton its FOB value, adjusted for domestic transport and handling costs. Sorghum and cotton seed have been valued at their domestic prices and adjusted to border prices by the application of the Standard Conversion Factor (SCF). The SCF, which is the ratio of the official exchange rate to the shadow exchange rate, has also been applied to the local cost element in transport and handling. The base prices of the five commodities before adjustments are:

Sorghum TSh/mt 1,000

Groundnuts TSh/mt 2,870

Paddy TSh/mt 2,602

Cotton AR TSh/mt 9,039

BR TSh/mt 5,630

Cotton Seed TSh/mt 553

20. Sensitivity Analysis. The sub-project is most sensitive to the farm input costs, including the cost of incremental farm labor. This is because farm inputs become the major component of the total costs after the initial two years, growing to over 70% of total costs after five years. A 20% increase in the farm input costs causes the Project rate of return to fall from 18% to 11% a decrease of over one-third. The economic rate of

1/ The official rural wage rate of TSh 14.60 per man day is of limited value in price calculations due to lack of employment opportunities. The economic wage rate for rural labor has therefore been based on the rates of return to labor in the alternatives available to farmers in the absence of the project. These alternatives were the production of various crops by unimproved methods which have average rates of return ranging from TSh 3.7 to TSh 7.0 per man day. The marginal rate of return to labor is presumably less than these average rates. ANNEX 2 Page 13 return is clearly partly dependentupon the inputed cost of incrementalfarm labor, but with labor costed at TSh 7.3 per man day (50% of the rural wage rate, instead of 40%, and rather above the best estimated opportunitycost within crop agriculture)the IER is still about 13%.

21. The internal rate of return is less sensitive to changes in other operating and the capital costs. A 10% overall increase in costs decreases the economic rate of return to about 12%, and a 20% increase in all costs reduces IER to 7%. TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Cotton Ha Budget

(Without Project) (With Project) Traditional Advanced Incremental

Yield in kg seed cotton/ha (UK 64) - 500 1,000 500

Gross Return (T.Sh.) -

Grade AR at T.Sh. 2.0 /kg 550 1,600 800 Grade BR at T.Sh. 1.0 /kg 225 200 100 Total T.Sh./ha 775 1,800 900 Cost of Inputs

A. Materials Unsubsidized Subsidized Unsubsidized Subsidized 3/ Insecticides (a) Endosulfan at 9 lit/ha _- 126 63 126 63 (b) llostathion at 2 lit/ha 4 - 86 43 86 43 ULV Sprayer set. I per 2.5 ha, replaced each 2 years - - 20 10 20 10 Batteries to operate ULV sprayer - 12 6 12 6 Tools and cleaning materials 6/ -5 3 5 Fertilizer: (a) TSP at 100 kg/ha and T.Sh. 250/100 kg (unsubsidized) and 80 T.Sh./100 kg subsidized 7/ - 250 80 250 80 (b) SA at 100 kg/ha and T.Sh. 150/100 kg (unsubsidized) and 52 T.Sh./100 kg subsidized 7/ - 150 52 150 52

Sub-Total Materials 649 257 649 257

B. Labor (man-days/ha)

Land Preparation and Ridging 50 65 15 Planting 2 5 3 Fertilizer Application 4 4 Thinning and Weeding 25 40 15 Insecticides Application _ I I Harvesting and Grading 30 55 25 Uprooting and Burning Stocks 3 6 3

Sub-Total Labor 110 176 66

Net Return excluding labor (T.Sh.) 775 1,151 1,543 251 643

Return to labor (T.Sh./man-day) 7 0 6.5 8.8 3.8

1/ TCA and mission estimate. 2/ Official producer prices with traditional cotton in the proportion of 55% AR and 45% BR; Advanced Cotton in proportion of 80% AR and 20% BR. 3/ Endosulfan at T.Sh. 14.00/lit at 9 lit/ha. 4/ Hostathion at T.Sh. 43.00/lit at 2 lit/ha. 5/ ULV sprayer, mask and gloves at T.Sh. 200 per set. 6/ T.Sh. 5 for paraffin to clean ULV sprayer. x 7/ At 1976 prices. TSP = Triple Super Phosphate; SA = Sulphate of Ammonia. ,D r4 8/ Comparative Economics of Tobacco Production on Small Family Farm in Tabora Region by MP Collinson 1970 DSM. ro TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Paddy Ha Budget

(Without Project) (With Project) Traditional Advanced Incremental

Yield in kg Paddy/ha - 1,000 2,000 1,000

Gross Return T.Sh./ha @ 1.0 /kg - 1,000 2,000 1,000

Cost of Inputs

A. Materials Unsubsidized Subsidized Unsubsidized Subsidized

Seed: 50 kg/ha @ T.Sh. 1.0 /kg 50 50 50 - -

Fertilizer: 200 kg/ha of Sulphate of Ammonia - 300 104 300 104 @ T.Sh. 150/100 kg (Unsubsidized) @ T.Sh. 52/100 kg (Subsidized)

Insecticides: 2 kg/ha of 5% DDT - 8.80 4.40 8.80 4.40 @ T.Sh. 4.40/kg (Unsubsidized) @ T.Sh. 2.20/kg (Subsidized) _

Total T.Sh./ha 50 358.80 158.40 308.80 108.40

B. Labor (man-days/ha) -/

Seedbed 10 10 - Land Preparation 50 55 5 Planting 20 25 5 Weeding 40 50 10 Fertilizer Application _ 3 3 Spraying - 1 1 Harvesting 20 30 10

Sub-Total Labor 140 174 34

Net Return excluding labor T.Sh. 950 1,641.20 1,841.60 691.20 891.60

Return to labor T.Sh./man-day 6.8 9.4 10.6 20.3 26.22

1/ Kilimo and mission estimate. 2/ Official gazatted produce price - 1976. 3/ Comparative Economics of Tobacco Production on Small Family Farm in Tabora Region by MP Collinson 1970 DSM. TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Sorghum Ha Budget

(Without Project) (With Project) Traditional Advanced Incremental

Yield in kg dried grain sorghum/ha 1/ 500 1,500 1,000

Gross Return @ T. Sh. 0.90/kg 2/ 450 1,350 900

A. Cost of Inputs UnsubsUidized Subsidized Unsubsidized Subsidized

Seed: @ 12 kg/ha 11 11 11 @ 40kg/ha for pure stand

Fertilizer: TSP at 50 kg/ha and T.Sh. 250/100 kg (unsubsidized) -- 125 40 125 40 and T.Sh. 80/100 kg (subsidized)

S.A. at 150 kg/ha and T.Sh. 150/100 kg (unsubsidized) 225 78 225 78 and T.Sh. 52/100 kg (subsidized)

Insecticide:DDT Q 10 kg/ ha and T.Sh. 4.40/kg (unsubsidized) 44 22 44 22 2.20/kg (subsidized) _

Total T.Sh./ha 11 05 151 t94 140

B. Labor (Man-days/ha)3/

Lawn preparation 62 70 8 Planting 3 3 Weeding 40 50 10 Dusting -- 1 1 Fertilizer Application -- 2 2 Harvesting 15 30 15

Total 120 156 36

Net return excluding labor T.Sh. 439 945 1,199 506 760 Return to Labor T.Sh./man-day 37 650 7.7 54.0 716

1/ Kilimo and mission estimate. 2/ Official gazatted produce price - 1976. 3/ ComparativeEconomics of Tobacco Production on Small Family Farm in Tabora Region by MP Collinson 1970 DSM.

w. ru TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Groundnut Ha-Budget

(Without Project) (With Project) Traditional Advanced Incremental

Yield: Shelled nuts kg/ha 1/ 400 600 200

Gross Return @ T.Sh. 2. 50 per kg of shelled nuts 2/ 1,000 1,500 500

A. Cost of Inputs Unsubsidized Subsidized Unsubsidized Subsidized

Seed: @ 40 kg/ha for Traditional mixed cropping 100 175 175 75 75 @ 70 kg/ha for pure stand

Fertilizer: TSP at 100 kg/ha, T.Sh. 250/100 kg (unsubsidized) - 250 80 250 80 and T.Sh. 80/100 kg (subsidized)

Total T.Sh/ha 100 425 255 325 155

B. Labor (Man-day/ha) -

Land Preparation and Ridging 30 30 Planting 5 8 3 Weeding 30 35 5 Fertilizer Application - 2 2 Harvesting 50 60 10 Shelling 30 40 10 145 175 30

Net Return excluding labor 900 1,075 1,245 175 345

Return to labor T.Sh./man-day 6.2 6.1 7.1 5.8 11.5

1/ Kilimo and mission estimate. 2/ Official gazatted produce price - 1976. 3/ Comparative Economics of Tobacco Production on Small Family Farm in Tabora Region by MP Collinson 1970 DSM. TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Cotton Production (WLth and Without Proiect)

1976/77 1977/'78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81

(Unit) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Project Villages Nos. - 6 15 15 15 Nos. - 2,250 5,625 5,625 Total farmers @ 375 per village Nos - 2,250 1'000 2,000 ~~~~~~5,625300 Expected adopters , Non-adopters Nos. - 2,050 4,625 3,625 2,625

Cotton Production without Project

Area under Traditional cotton @ 0.9 ha per family ha - 2,025 5,062 5,062 ),062 Production @ 500 kg/ha MT - 1,013 2,531 2,531 2,531

Cotton Production with Project

A. By Adoptors

Area under advanced cotton ha - 200 l,OOO 2,000 3,000 Average yield of seed cotton under advanced management kg/ha - 650 750 850 1,000 Production MT - 130 670 1,420 2,280

B. BY Non-Adootors

Area under Traditional cotton @ 0.9 ha per farmer ha - 1,823 4,162 3,262 2,362 Production @ 500 kg/ha MT - 912 2,081 1,631 1,181

Total Production with Project MT 1,042 2,751 3,051 3,461

Yearly incremental production MT - 29 220 520 930

Value of incremental prodietion at TSh. 1800/MT T.S S 52,200 396,000 936,r)00 1,674,000

IX TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Paddy Production (With and Without Project)

1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 (Unit) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Project Villages Nos. - 6 15 15 15 Total number of farmers @ 375/village Nos. - 2,250 5,625 5,625 5,625 Expected adopters Nos. - 200 1,000 2,000 3,000 Non-adopters Nos. - 2,050 4,625 3,625 2,625

Paddy Production without Project

Area under Traditional Paddy @ 1.0 ha/farmer ha - 2,250 5,625 5,625 5,625 Production @ 1,000 kg/ha MT - 2,250 5,625 5,625 5,625

Paddy Production with Project

A. By Adoptors

Area under advanced Paddy ha - 200 1,000 2,000 3,000 Average yield of Paddy under advanced management kg/ha - 1,200 1,500 1,750 2,000 Production MT - 240 1,260 2,750 4,500

B. By Non-Adoptors

Area under Traditional Paddy ha - 2,050 4,625 3,625 2,625 Production MT- 2,050 4,625 3,625 2,625

Total Production with Project MT - 2,290 5,885 6,375 7,125

Yearly incremental production MT - 40 260 750 1,500

Value of incremental Paddy production @ T.Sh 1000/MT T.Sh - 40,000 260,000 750,000 1,500,000 TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Sorghum Production (With and Without Project)

1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81

(Unit) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

rroJect villages Nos. - 12 30 30 30 Total number of farmers @ 375/village Nos. - 4,500 11,250 11,250 11,250 Fxpected adoptors Nos. - 400 2,000 4,ooo 6,ooo non-adopters Nos. - 4,1°° 9,250 7,250 5,250

Sorghum Production without Proiect

Area under Traditional Sorghum @ 0.8 ha per farmer ha - 3,600 8,964 8,964 8,964 Production@ 500 kg/ha MT 1,800 4,482 4,482 4,482

Sorghum Production with Proiect

A. By Adoptors Area under advanced management @ 0.8 ha/farmer in Cotton villages, @ 0.5 ha/farmer in Paddy villages ha - 260 1,300 2,600 3,900 Average yield under advanced management kgia - 750 1,000 1,250 1,500

Production MT- 195 1,040 2,340 3,965

B. By Non-Adoptors

Area under Traditional Sorghum @ 0.8 ha/farmer ha - 3,280 7,400 5,800 4,200 Production @ 500 kg/ha MT - 1,640 3,700 2,900 2,100

Total Production with ProjeCt MT -- 1,835 4,740 5,240 6.065

Yearly incremental production MT 35 258 758 1,583

Value of incremental production at TSh. 900/MT TSh 31,500 232,200 682,200 1,424,?00

-s ro TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Groundnuts Production (With and Without Pro lect)

1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82

(Unit) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Project villages Nos. - 12 30 30 30 Total number of farmers at 375 per village Nos - 4,500 11,250 11,25C 11,250 Expected adopters Kos, - 400 2,000 4,ooo 6,ooc Non-adopters Nos - 4,100 9,250 7,250 5,250

Groundnut Production without Project

Area under Traditional Groundnut @ 0.1 ha per farmer ha - 450 1,125 1,125 1,125 Production @ 400 kg/ha MT - l80 450O 450 450

Groundnut Production with Project

A. BY Adoptors

Area under advanced Groundnuc @ 0.3 ha per farmer ha - 120 600 1,200 1,800 Average yield under advanced management kg/ha - 450 500 550 600

Production MT - ,4 276 576 906

B. By Non-Adoptors

Area under Traditional Groundnut @ 0.1 ha per farmer ha - 410 925 725 525 Production @ 400 kg/ha MT - 164 370 290 210

Total Production with Project NT - 218 646 866 1,006

Yearly incremental production MT - 38 196 416 556

VTalue of incremental production at TSh. 2,500/MT T - 95,000 490,000 1, 040,000 1,390,000 TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Farm Inputs for Cotton (With Project)

1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 Input Quantities and Costs (Unit) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Fertilizer: (A) TSP @ 100 kg/ha MT - 20 100 200 300 Cost - Unsubsidized @ T.Sh 2500/MT T.Sh - 50,000 250,000 500,000 750,000 Cost - Subsidized @ T.Sh 800/MT T.Sh - i6,000 80,ooo 160,000 240,000 (B) Sulphate of Ammonia @ 100 Kg/ha, MT - 20 100 200 300 Cost - Unsubsidized@ T.Sh 1500/MT T.Sh - 30,000 150,000 300,000 45s,ooo Cost - Subsidized@ T.Sh 520/MT T.Sh - 10,400 52,000 104,000 156,000

Insecticides:(A) Endosulfan @ 9 lit/ha L - 1,800 9,000 18,000 27,000 Cost - Unsubsidized@ T.Sh 14/lit T.Sh - 25,200 126,000 252,000 378,000 Cost - Subsidized@ T.Sh 7/lit T.Sh - 12,600 63,000 126,000 189,000 (B) Hostathion@ 2 lit/ha L - 400 2,000 4,ooo 6,ooo

Cost - Unsubsidized @ T.Sh 43/lit T.Sh - 17,200 86,000 172,000 258,000 Cost - Subsidized@ T.Sh 22/lit T.Sh - 8,800 44,ooo 88,ooo 132,000

ULV Sprayers 8 one sprayer/2.5ha Nos. - bO 400 800 1,200 Cost - Unsubsidized @ T.Sh 200 per set T.Sh - 16,000 80,000 160,000 240,000 Cost - Subsidized @ T.Sh 100 per set T.Sh - 8,000 40,ooo 80,000 120,000

Batteries @ 2/ha Nos. - 400 2,000 4,ooo 6,ooo Cost - Unsubsidized@ T.Sh 6/Battery T.Sh - 2,400 12,000 24,ooo 36,ooo Cost - Subsidized @ T.Sh 3/Battery T.Sh - 1,200 6,0oo 12,000 18,000

Tools and Cleaning Material

Cost - Unsubsidized @ T.Sh 5/ha T.Sh - 1,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 Cost - Subsidized9 T.Sh 3/ha T.Sh - 600 3,000 6,000 9,0oo

Total Cost - Unsubsidized T.Sh - 141,800 709,000 1,418,000 2,127,000 Subsidized T.Sh - 57,600 288,000 576,000 864,ooo

* TSP - Triple Super Phosphate.

> TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Farm Inputs for Paddy (With Project)

1977178 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 Farm Inputs (Unit) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Seed at 50 kg/ha MT - 10 50 100 150 Cost at T.Sh 10OO/MT T.Sh _ 10,000 50,000 100,000 150,000

Fertilizer: At 200 kg/ha of Sulphate of Ammonia MT - 40 200 400 600 Cost - Unsubsidized at T.Sh 1500/MT T.Sh - 60,000 300,000 600,000 900,000 Cost - Subsidized at T.Sh 520/MT T.Sh - 20,800 104,000 208,000 312,000

Insecticides: At 2 kg/ha of 5% DDT MT - 0.4 2.0 4.0 6.0 Cost - Unsubsidized at T.Sh 4400/MT T.Sh - 1,760 8,800 17,600 26,400 Cost - Subsidized at T.Sh 2200/MT T.Sh - 880 4,400 8,800 13,200

Total Cost - Unsubsidized T.Sh - 71,760 358,800 717,600 1,076,400 Subsidized T.Sh - 31,680 158,400 316,800 475,200

ID TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Farm Inputs for Sorghum (With Prolect)

1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82

(Unit) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Seed @ 12 kg/ha MT - 3 16 31 47 Cost @ T.Sh 900/MT T.Sh - 2,700 14,400 27,900 42,300 Fertilizer @ 50 kg/ha TSP MT - 13 65 130 195 Cost - Unsubsidized @ T.Sh 2500/MT T.Sh - 32,500 162,500 325,000 487,500 Cost - Subsidized @ T.Sh 800/MT T.Sh - 10,400 52,000 104,000 156,000

@ 150 kg/ha of Sulphate of Ammonia MT - 39 195 390 585

Cost - Unsubsidized @ T.Sh 1500/MT T.Sh - 58,500 292,500 585,000 877,500 Cost - Subsidized @ T.Sh 520/MT T.Sh - 20,280 101,400 202,800 304,200

Insecticides @ 10 kg/ha DDT MT - 3 13 26 39 Cost - Unsubsidized @ T.Sh 4400/MT T.Sh - 13,200 57,200 114,400 171,600 Cost - Subsidized @ T.Sh 2200/MT T.Sh - 6,600 28,600 57,200 85,800

Total Cost - Unsubsidized T.Sh - 106,900 526,600 1,052,300 1,J78,900 - Subsidized T.Sh - 46,280 228,800 457,600 686,100

* TSP - Triple Super Phosphate.

Fz r TANZANIA, .TAB3ORARURAL DENVELO.PtENT1'ROJFCT,

L-rm In uts fo~r rouq tw&ts (Wtkroiect',

1977/78 1978/79 19?9/80 1980181 1981/82 (Unit) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Seed ( 70 kg/ha MT - 8 42 84 126 Cost @ T.Sh 2500/MT T.Sh - 20,000 105,000 210,000 315,000

Fertilizer ( 100 kgtha TSE'* FT - 12 60 120 180

Cost - Unsubsidized Q I.5h 2500Im T.Sh - 30,000 150,000 300,000 450,000 Cost - Subsidized @ T.Sh BOOIMT T.Sh - 9,600 48,000 96,000 144,000 Total Cost

Unsi"bsidized T.Shb 50,000 255,000 510,000 765,000 Subsidized T.Sh - 29,000 153,000 306,000 459,000

* TSP - Triple Super Phosphate.

a3- TANZANIA

TABORA - RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT 1/ Man-days Labor Reouired for Proposed Cropping Under the Sub-Project

Unit Hectare Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Total

Cotton/Sorghum/C.nuts/Cassava

Cotton 1.0 8 3 28 22 14 9 21 14 17 15 15 10 176

Sorghum 0.8 - - - 13 27 39 10 13 14 8 - - 124

Groundnuts 0.3 - - - 7 13 6 7 9 10 - - - 52

Cassava 0.5 - - 4 2 - - - 18 9 8 - - 41

Total 2.6 8 3 32 44 54 54 38 54 50 31 15 10 393

Paddy/Sorghum/G.nuts/Cassava

Paddy 1.0 - - - 23 32 20 20 25 8 31 15 - 174

Sorghum 0.5 - - - 8 16 24 7 8 9 6 - - 78

Groundnuts 0.3 - - - 7 13 6 7 9 10 - - 52

Cassava 0.5 - - 4 2 - - - 18 9 8 - - 41

Total 2.3 - - 4 40 61 50 34 60 36 45 15 - 345

I/ Comparative Economics of Tobacco Production on Small Family Farm in Tabora Region - by the Collinson 1970 DSM.

D to TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT - IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE

~~~~ sJF 43f#a-erFASoA -J~ A'5W t J}rws JF7428D<

I19 7 j l97B lIt0 19 1981

Staff Recruitment -

1. Agronomist Planning Unit 2. Extension Agronomist, Mobile Unit - . 3. Extension Training Officer -0 K , . . . . 4. Research Officer, Tumbi . ___

Building Program _ = .

1. Initiation of Contracts 2. Completion of Number of Houses A-4 3. Completion of Number of Stores _ 1

Equipment Order Lead Time 12 12

1. Vehicles - .

2. Laboratory Equipment - . _ 3. Other Farm Inputs F -- __ - --

Production Villages A J;.

'. Cotton/Sorghum/Groundnuts (No. of Villages) i- -

2. Paddy/Sorghum/Groundnuts(No. of Villages)t -

-~~~~-

S I~~~~-- TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECI

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

Farm Model I: Cotton/Sorghum/Groundnuts Farm Size (2.6 ha)

Without Unit Project Proiect Year 1 ~~~~2 3 4 5 Output Cotton

Area ha 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Yield (Seed Cotton) kg/ha 500 500 650 750 850 1,000 Volume (Total Production) kg 450 450 650 750 850 1,000 Net Value - AR @ T.Sh 2.0/kg T.Sh 495 495 1,040 1,200 1,360 1,600 - BR @ T.Sh 1.0/kg T.Sh 90 90 130 150 170 200 585 585 1,170 1,350 1,530 1,800 Sorghum

Area ha 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Yield kg/ha 500 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 Volume kg 400 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Less family consumption 1/ kg 400 400 600 650 650 650 Met Volume kg - - - 150 350 550 Net Value @ T.Sh 0.90/kg T.Sh - - - 135 315 495 Groundnuts

Area ha 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Yield kg/ha 400 400 450 500 550 600 Volume kg 40 40 135 150 165 180 Less family consumption 1/ kg 40 40 90 90 90 90 Net Volume kg - - 45 60 75 90 Net Value @ T.Sh 2.50/kg T.Sh - - 113 150 188 225 Cassava & Vegetables

Area ha 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Yield kg/ha 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 Volume kg 600 600 600 600 600 600 Less family consumption 1/ kg 600 600 600 600 600 600 Net Value T.Sh ------Total Value of Marketable Produce T.Sh 585 585 1,283 1,635 2/ 2,033 2,495 Inputs - Cotton T.Sh - - 257 257 257 257 Sorghum T.Sh 6 6 140 140 140 140 Groundnuts T.Sh 10 10 77 77 77 77 Total Input Costs T.Sh 16 16 474 474 474 474 Net Cash Surplus T.Sh 569 569 889 1,161 1,559 2,021

1/ The consumption of cereals, root crops, vegetables and groundnuts would give about 2053 calories and 44 gin.protein/head/day

2/ Based on ha Budget Table Nos. 1, 2, 3, 4. TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

AGRI CULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

Farm Model II: Paddy/Sorghum/Groundnuts Farm Size (2.3 ha)

WXtnout Unit Project Projeit Year 1 2 3 4 5

OutPu t Paddy

Area ha 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Yield kg/ha 1,000 1,000 1,200 1,500 1,750 2,000 Volume (Total Production) kg 1,000 1,000 1,200 1,500 1,750 2,000 Less family consumption 1/ kg 150 150 200 200 200 200 Net Volume kg 750 750 1,000 1,300 1,550 1,800 Net Value @ T.Sh 1.0/kg T.Sh 750 750 1,000 1,300 1,550 1,800

Sorghum

Area ha 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 Yield kg/ha 500 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 Volume kg 400 400 450 500 625 750 Less family consumption 1/ kg 400 400 450 500 500 500 Net Volume kg - - - 125 250 Net Value @ T.Sh 0.90/kg T.Sh - - - - 113 225

Groundnut s

Area ha 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Yield kg/ha 400 400 450 500 550 600 Volume kg 40 40 135 150 165 180 Less family consumption 1/ kg - - 90 90 90 90 Net Volume kg - 45 60 75 90 Net Value ( T.Sh 2.50/kg T.Sh - 113 150 188 225

CasBava & Vegetables

Area ha 0.5 O.P 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Yield kg/ha 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 Volume kg 600 600 600 600 600 600 Less family consumption 1/ kg 600 600 600 600 600 600 Net Value T.Sh - - - - -

Total Value of Marketable Produce T.Sh 750 750 1,113 1,450 1,851 2,U5 2/ Inputs - Paddy T.Sh 50 50 158 158 158 158 Sorghum T. Si, 6 6 88 88 88 88 Groundnuts T.Sh 10 10 77 77 77 77

Total Input Costs T.Sh 66 66 323 323 323 323

Net Cash Surplus T.Sh 684 684 790 1,121 1, 528 1, 901

1/ The consumption of cereals, root crops, vegetables and groundnuts would give about 2053 calories and 44 gm protein/bead/day.

2/ Based on ha Budget Table Nos. 1, 2, 3, 4. TANZANIA

TABORARURAL DFVELOPMENT PROJECT

AGRICULTURALDEVELOPMENT

Farm Model III - Cotton/Sorghum/Groundnuts/Cattle

Without Unit Project Project Year 1 2 3 4 5

Net Cash Surplus from Farm Model I T.Sh 569 569 809 1,161 1,559 2,021 output Cattle T.Sh -- 500 500 500 500 500

Legumes/Grass

Area ha -- 0.10 0.10 010 0.10 0.10 Yield (dry matter) kg/ha -- 3,000 6,ooo 6,ooo 6,ooo 6,ooo Volume kg -- 300 600 600 600 600 Sorghum/Fodder j

Area ha -- 0.2 02 0.2 0P.2 Yield (dry matter) kg 4,oO' 4 ,ooo' 4,ooo 4,oo8 Volume (dry matter) kg __ 800 800 800 800

Input Costs Legume/Grass T.Sh -- 20 1 10 10 10 Sorghum/Fodder T.Sh -- 28 10 l0 l0 l0 Cattle T.Sh -- 380 380 380 380 380

428 40o 40o 400 40o

Incremental -- 72 100 100 100 100

Net Surplus 641 909 1,261 1,659 2,121

Excess fodder production for fattening of domestic herd j Fodder seed retained after year one.

,- > H H (D H

-1 A TANZANIA

TABORARURAL DF:VETOPMyNTPROJECT

AGCICULTURA1DEVEWPMEVT

Farm Model III - Pddyv/Sorebum/Groundnutn/Cattle

Without Vnit Project Project Year 1 ~~~~2 35

Net Cash Surplus from Fa,smModel I T.Sh 684 684 790 1,127 1,528 1,902 outpJt cattle T.Sh -- 500 500 50 500 500 Legwae/ OGres Area ha 0.10 0.10 0 10 0.10 0.10 Yield (dry matter) kg/la -- 3,000 6,0o0 6,ooo 6,ooo 6,000 Volume kg -- 300 600 600 600 600 .So-_hum/Foddrr j

Area ha -- 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Yield (dry matter) kg -- 4,000o4,000 4,C.z 4,ooo Volume (dry matter) kg 800 800 800 800

_np_t_osts Legume/Grass T.Sh __ 20 10 10 10 10 Sorghum/Fodder T.Sh 28 10 10 10 10 Cattle T.Sh __38 380 380 380 380 428 4oo 400 4oo 4ho Incremental __ 72 100 100 100 100 Net Surplus 756 809 1,227 1,628 2,002

j Excess fodder producF.on for fattening of donestic herd, J Fodder oeed retained atter year one,

HIS' I-.

ANNEX 3

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Livestock Development

A. Livestock in Tabora Region

Livestock in the Economies Para. 1 Livestock Health Para. 9 Livestock Marketing Para. 15 Technical Services Para. 18

B. Summary of Constraints to Increasing Livestock Production Para. 23

C. The Sub-Project Para. 26

Village Livestock Farms: Nzega and Igunga (Appendix 2) Para. 28 Village Livestock Farms: Miombo Zone (Appendix 3) Para. 31 Regional Livestock Development Services Para. 32 Tsetse Control Para. 33 Marketing Improvement Para. 34

D. Operating Procedures, Costs and Benefits Para. 35

Cost Estimates Para. 36 Producer and Economic Benefits Para. 37

Appendix 1: Ministry of Agriculture - Veterinary Division: Regional Staff

Appendix 2: Village Livestock Farms - Mixed Farming Areas (Nzega and Igunga)

Table 1: Investment Costs per Village Table 2: Herd Projections per Village Table 3: Estimate of Sales and Operating Expenses per Village Table 4: Financial Projections and Indicative Financial Rate of Return per Village

Appendix 3: Village Livestock Farms - New Developments (Miombo Zone)

ANNEX 3 Page 1

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Livestock Development

A. Livestock in Tabora Region

Livestock in the Economies

1. Livestock production in Tabora Region, particularly extensive cattle keeping, has developed as part of the mixed farming economy of the northern districts of Nzega and Igunga. Clearance of woodland in these areas for growing cash and subsistence crops has destroyed the habitat of the tsetse fly, the vector of trypanosomiasis and the major factor limiting ruminant production in the forests which still cover 75% of the Region. Surplus agricultural production has been bartered or sold for herds of cattle which have assumed considerable economic and social importance in traditional society.

2. In addition to their value as a source of food and as draft power, cattle represent wealth and prestige; they are essential in marriage contracts, comprise a common form of inheritance and are used to guarantee loans and in formal pacts of friendship. Because of this customary use and the complex patterns of ownership and beneficial interests built up in the herds, commercial trading in cattle has been slow to develop. Stocks are rarely sold other than in times of drought or to meet immediate cash or social needs, and commercial slaughter is confined to the main urban centers. A history of losses from disease and drought has also encouraged the policy of building of herds wherever there is adequate pasture. Although major epidemic diseases such as Rinderpest and Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) have been successfully contained, tick-borne diseases continue to take a heavy toll, and the cattle owner considers it prudent to increase his herd numbers as insurance against future outbreaks.

3. The combination of the social demand for cattle and the limitation of the grazing areas by the geographical distribution of the savannah tsetse fly have led to severe overstocking in the northern districts. Increasing pressure on the land for cash and subsistence cropping has aggravated the situation and seasonal transhumant movement of stock is now common practice. Use of cleared forest lands following settlement and temporary destocking will give localized relief, but an effective grazing control and land-use policy would be needed to arrest the erosion of the light soils by overgrazing.

4. The Regional herd of about 1 million head of cattle, or about 10% of the national herd, contributes substantially to the economy of the Re- gion. Market sales of 30,800 and the purchase of 40,300 head by Tanganyika Packers Limited (TPL) were recorded during 1975 but are partially double counted. However, including village and bush slaughterings of about 20,000, current slaughter off-take is probably 60-70,000 head (6% - 7%) per annum valued at about TSh 15,000,000. ANNEX 3 Page 2

5. The distribution of the herd is determined by the availability of tsetse-free grazing. The estimated livestock population in Tabora Region in 1973 was ('000 head):

Districts Cattle Sheep Goats

Nzega and Igunga 835 135 186

Tabora and Urambo 177 7 2

Total 1,012 142 188

The estimates for Nzega and Igunga may also include a number of transhumant stock from Mwanza Region. In recent years, there has been considerable migration of cattle from Shinyanga District and from Nzega through to Mbeya and the Southern Highlands. The movement has been a result not only of the extended drought, but also of the reluctance of the pastoralists to accept lower stocking rates and sedentary ranching practice being pressed by the authorities.

6. The local cattle are small zebu stock, hardy and well adapted to the harsh dry season of the savannah. Individual herds are grazed in groups of up to 300 or 400 in the fallow lands and secondary bush of the cultivated areas. With the onset of the dry season and the receding challenge of the tsetse fly, extensive transient use is made of miombo forest grazing. Lack of adequate watering facilities is a general problem through the Region, but is acute in the miombo and prevents more intensive dry season exploitation of the woodland savannah.

7. The heavy stocking in the tsetse fly tree zones has not been controlled by the statutory measures provided by the Grazing Control Ordinance (Cap 156). Large areas surrounding villages and watering points have been subjected to serious over-grazing with the resultant extensive deterioration of light top-soils through sheet and gulley erosion. Government re- cognizes the severity of the problem, which it is seeking to combat through its policy of villagization and enclosure, and a TANU-backed call for 10% annual decrease in cattle holdings throughout the Region. The likely effect of this program will be to encourage further transfer of stock through migration rather than effective reduction in cattle numbers through increased slaughter off-take. The social demands for cattle are deep-rooted and there is considerable mistrust of the principles of communal ownership of stock which are seen as part of the villagization program. Moreover, village enclosure will not succeed in rehabilitating the natural pastures unless accompanied by stock management and grazing control. The potential carrying capacity of the grasslands has been amply demonstrated at Ibolugero Seed Station where 49 head of cattle are carried on about 50 ha throughout the year with specialized management; simple enclosure and rotational grazing can maintain both the stock and pasture in good condition. The development of the livestock industry in Tabora would largely depend on improving the management of available grazing, without which destocking or the increase of pasture lands through forest clearance will prove ineffective. ANNEX 3 Page 3

8. Stock management standards are poor and are reflected in the low productivity of the herd. Inadequate nutrition is a major cause of late- maturing cows and a calving rate of under 50%. Poor lactation results in stunted calves and contributes to the heavy calf death rates of 25% to 30%. Disease control, except for vaccination against major economic diseases, such as Rinderpest or CBPP, is rarely practiced, and as a result, cattle weights are typically low. TPL, which receives 80% of its throughput from Shinyanga and Nzega, reports average carcass weights of about 100 kg.

Livestock Health

9. The diseases of major economic importance affecting livestock are the tick-borne diseases, of which East Coast Fever and Anaplasmosis are common, Trypansomiasis and Foot-and-Mouth disease. Rinderpest and Conta- gious Bovine Pleuropneumonia, both of which were problems in the past, have been successfully contained through effective vaccination and quarantine control measures.

10. Records of the Veterinary Investigation Center (VIC), Tabora, indicates that East Coast Fever and Anaplasmosis are the diseases causing the most serious cattle losses. Such diseases can be controlled through routine dipping, but only about 7% of the herd receives treatment, and even that is irregular although no charge is made for the use of dips. A further problem is the inadequacy of the dip strength: analysis has shown that the majority of dips are not maintained with the recommended levels of acaricides. Dip- ping routines are essential to the implementation of the Regional animal disease control program and little progress will be achieved until dip maintenance is effective.

II. Foot and Mouth disease is endemic throughout the Region, and 16 incidences of the disease, chiefly Types 0 and A, were reported in 1975. However, stock losses (as opposed to reduced herd productivity due to the disease) are not significant.

12. Epizootic diseases such as Anthrax and Haemorrhagic Septicaemia occur sporadically throughout the Region. VIC which has recently diagnosed Anthrax fatalities in both humans and cattle, considers that the incidence of such diseases is far heavier than reported. Cattle owners are reluctant to risk carcass condemnation and sick animals are usually slaughtered for consumption rather than allowed to die from disease.

13. The widespread distribution of the tsetse fly (Glossina Morsitans and G. Palipides) vector of Trypanosomiasis has limited settlement in the Region. Forest clearance, as has occurred in Nzega and Igunga, destroys the breeding habitat of the vector and eradicates the disease. In forest areas, the degree of infestation depends largely upon the availability of suitable moist breeding vegetation; this characteristic of the vector permits limited exploitation of the miombo grazing during the dry season. In the partially cleared zones or new settlements (such as Ulyankulu), although pockets of primary infestation persist and cases of trypanosomiasis continue to occur in the human and cattle populations, cattle may be maintained if creation of tsetse barriers and selective spraying of breeding areas are ANNEX 3 Page 4 supported by chemotherapy and prophylactic treatments of stock. However, recurrent management and maintenance costs of such a program are high, and reinfestation, such as has occurred in the barrier-protected Tanzania Live- stock Marketing Company (TLMC) Ipala holding ground, is a constant problem.

14. Due to lack of funds, little tsetse survey or control work has been carried out in recent years. Tsetse distribution records have not been maintained and a tsetse survey of the new settlement areas of Urambo and Tabora districts and of other zones of potential settlement is essential if cattle and mixed farming are to be introduced. A major area of investigation would concern the advance of tsetse fly into old cultivated areas now abandoned but classified as viable fly-free grazing areas.

Livestock Marketing

15. The 23 registered livestock markets and buying stations in the Region are operated by TLMC which is also responsible for the maintenance of the Ipala holding ground in Tabora District. TLMC was established as a subsidiary of the Livestock Development Authority to handle the marketing component of the Second Tanzanian Livestock Development Project (IDA Credit 382-TA). The Regional TLMC unit is based at Nzega and two marketing teams control auction buying at each market. Animals are sorted, branded, and sales recorded. In addition, TLMC buys on its own account for local butchers and NACO ranches; these purchases have been low, averaging only 300-320 per month. In April 1975, however, TLMC was appointed buyer for Tanganyika Packers Ltd. (TPL) and total monthly purchases have risen to about 2,900 head. Buying procedures are loose and differences between buying station and TPL arrival weights show losses of up to 25%. Only 7-10% loss may be attributed to weight loss in transit to Dar es Salaam, and the high figures mainly reflect lack of control at buying points.

16. Buying at the markets is competitive. TLMC, which buys under the constraint of a fixed price (TSh 1.45 to TSh 1.55/kg liveweight according to grade), is only able to attract poorer animals of Grade III quality (180 kgs to 230 kgs) liveweight. However, because of the absence of a large domestic market and the distance to major export markets, cattle prices are generally lower than in the favorably located markets of northern Tanzania. As a result, about 80% of TLMC purchases are made in Nzega and the adjoining district of Shinyanga in Mwanza Region.

17. Few markets have adequate stock-handling and dipping facilities and only two are equipped with weighbridges. At the time of Project appraisal, no proposals had been made for market improvement in Tabora under IDA Credit 382-TA. Since it took over the operation of the major cattle markets from the District Development Corporations (DDC), TLMC has experienced increasing acceptance by both traders and producers. In view of the importance of the Region as a source of cattle for TLMC, market development would be fully justified and would strengthen the regional TLMC organization. Funds are already available under IDA Credit 382-TA. Improved facilities would also provide infrastructural support for a Regional destocking policy and for smallholder fatstock production which are proposed under this sub-project. ANNEX 3 Page 5

Technical Services

18. Regional livestock development services are headed by a Livestock Development Officer and technical direction is provided by a three-man team of veterinarians supplied under a bi-lateral aid agreement with the German Democratic Republic (GDR) (Appendix 1). The GDR personnel also direct the work of the Veterinary Investigation Center (VIC). All field services are administered at District level through the 10 veterinary centers in the Re- gion with the exception of the tsetse control division which is based at Regional headquarters.

19. Although increasing attention is being paid to production, livestock services are concerned primarily with disease control. The Region is a compulsory dipping area under the provisions of the former Animal Diseases Ordinance (Cap 155) and much of the livestock department's resources are directed towards dip construction and maintenance. No charge is made for use of the dips and other prophylactic and curative treatments are supplied at cost.

20. The field services are generally inadequate and ineffective. Only 23 of 41 dips in the Region are working and dip strengths are rarely maintained. Many have been badly sited and cannot operate during the dry season for lack of water. Veterinary Centers lack essential veterinary equipment and refrigerators for drug storage and the service as a whole has neither sufficient transport nor funds to operate it.

21. Staff numbers are adequate except at the key Field Officer level where current staff levels need to be brought up to strength (Appendix 1). In the tsetse control division, the recurrent field vote of TSh 10,000 a year does not allow any survey or control work to be undertaken and the 19 divisional staff are occupied with sporadic testing for trypanosomiasis in the human population.

22. The GDR veterinary assistance team has established sound technical facilities from which the service could readily expand. Lack of recurrent funds, however, limits the range of its activities. It is doubtful whether the current field program has more than a marginal effect on the low levels of productivity in the existing cattle producing areas. Attempts to stock zones of low tsetse challence would require considerable improvement in the coverage and quality of the district services.

B. Summary of Constraints to Increasing Livestock Production

23. Major constraints to increased and improved livestock production are summarized as follows: ANNEX 3 Page 6

(a) Technical

Inadequate nutrition of feed and water due to:

(i) heavy overstocking of cultivated tsetse free areas;

(ii) lack of permanent and properly distributed watering points;

(iii) restricted use of miombo grazing due to tsetse challenge;

(iv) lack of policies on grazing control and stock- rates.

(b) Infrastructural

Inadequate Regional and District production services and animal health services, in particular lack of:

(i) planning capacity for smallholder mixed-farming and livestock development;

(ii) District planning and implementation of grazing- control programs;

(iii) properly trained and experienced senior field staff capable of organizing and supervising an effective dipping and disease control program;

(iv) adequately equipped dips and veterinary centers;

(v) adequate budgetary support, particularly for transport;

(vi) tsetse survey and control capacity.

24. Of these constraints, overstocking constitutes the major barrier to development. The legislative and political framework within which an effective destocking and grazing control policy could be implemented exists (para. 7). However, the rate at which sub-project production investments could be made would depend upon the ability of the District authorities to apply stated Government policy. Full support for District field staff by the Regional and Central Government livestock development agencies is essential if the sub-project is to achieve its required impact.

25. Improved production is also contingent upon the provision of animal health control facilities, particularly well-maintained dips. Provision of the infrastructure necessary for sub-project implementation would also benefit surrounding areas and develop the services required for an expanded second stage project. ANNEX 3 Page 7

C. The Sub-Project

26. The sub-projectwould introduce as a pilot scheme, over a 5-year developmentperiod, sedentary and commerciallyoriented livestock production within the existing cleared and light bush areas of the Region and in the areas of low tsetse challenge of the miombo forestland. Primary objectives of this limited production componentwould be:

(a) to develop simple grazing control practices and grassland management techniques;

(b) to improve traditionalcattle management practices;

(d) to introduce intensive livestock production to smallholdings and to establish the degree to which small- scale fattening could reduce dependence upon extensive production;

(e) to develop the techniques and services required to maintain sedentary cattle herds in areas of low tsetse fly challenge;

(f) to develop credit and marketing mechanisms best adapted to the needs of the traditionalproducer.

Experience gained during implementationwould thus provide positive guidelines for longer term policies of destocking, range and grassland management and improved livestock production. The sub-projectwould also rein- force the existing veterinary infrastructureto provide the increased animal health control and technical supervisionnecessary for sedentary traditional sector cattle production.

27. Specifically,development would comprise:

(a) Village Livestock Production which would involved about six villages in existing production areas and its introductionin about six new settlementsin the miombo zone affecting in all about 3500-4000 families. Mixed farming developmentwould receive strong support and small-scalefattening introduced in existing villages.

(b) Technical Services and Infrastructure. Regional Livestock services would be strengthenedthrough:

(i) provision of transport,veterinary centers, dips and other essential capital investments; ANNEX 3 Page 8

(ii) budgetary support for Project-related activities during the five-year development period;

(iii) establishment of a livestock planning capacity to support the Regional Planning Office;

(iv) build-up of the tsetse control division to undertake a tsetse survey of the Region and provision of limited tsetse control capacity;

(v) provision of expert management services for (iii) and (iv).

Village Livestock Farms: Nzega and Igunga (Appendix 2)

28. The sub-project would establish a pilot program of improved livestock production in the existing agricultural and tsetse free light forest areas of Nzega and Igunga districts. Under the provisions of the Villages and Ujamaa Villages (Registration and Administration) Act 1975, a specific area of land is being allocated to each registered community. Sub-project villages would have been registered, would have a trained village secretary and would have adequate domestic water. They would maintain herds consistent with the carrying capacity of their designated grazing areas. A typical village would consist of about 350 families with full rights of usufruct over an area generally in excess of 6,000 ha. Initial stocking rates would allow for expansion of stock numbers through improved productivity and, a breeding herd of about 600 cows would be maintained. Extension coverage and animal health control would be provided by one Assistant Field Officer Grade II per village supported by the services of the area Veterinary Center. A cattle dip in each village would be improved or constructed as necessary. Other provisions would be dry season grazing paddocks, stock handling facilities and improved breeding stock, whilst other sub-projects would make provision, as needed, for investments in dams or watering points, and access tracks. Grazing and cultivation areas would be planned and demarcated by the Village Production Committee (VPC) assisted village planning units, trained under the Project. A key element in village development would be improvement of the carrying capacity of the grazing in the light bush and fallow lands. Estimated investment costs per village are detailed in Appendix 2, Table 1, and projections of herd growth are in Table 2. Sales and operating expenses, and overall financial projections with an indicative rate of return, are given in Appendix 2, Tables 3 and 4 respectively.

29. To encourage voluntary destocking and sedentary livestock production, and to compensate villagers for loss of potential income from reduced stock numbers, a stall fattening component would be introduced supported by short-term loans channelled through TLMC and TRDB. High yielding forage (Pennisetum Purpureum), common as dry season fodder throughout the northern Districts, would be grown in individual and communal areas of cultivation in participating villages and fed with a supplement of feed grain or legume crops (see Appendix 2, Table 3). Fattening stock would be bought and re- sold through TLMC. The village, as a legal entity, would be the prime bor- rower of the credit for fattening stock purchases and would on-lend to individual farmers. The purchase price of fattening stock would include ANNEX 3 Page 9 full costs of animal health treatments and an insurance premium of about 10% to cover deaths during the fattening period. Average per head weight gains of about 80 kgs. are anticipated over a 150 day fattening period.

30. In addition to the production of subsistence and cash crops, animal offtake from the average stabilized village herd would rise from 12 m. tons carcass weight to 44 m. tons at full development; about 48 m. tons per annum of fattened stock would also be produced. The average investment per village, phased over two years, would amount to TSh 240,000 requiring a loan of TSh 140,000.

Village Livestock Farms: Miombo Zone (Appendix 3)

31. The sub-project would establish livestock in about six villages in selected areas of the miombo now subject to light fly challenge (Appen- dix 3, Table 1). The clearance and maintenance of fly barriers and effective animal health control, supported by free or subsidized prophylactic and curative treatments for trypanosomiasis, would be essential to thL success of this pilot development and the costs of the tsetse survey and control programs have been provided under the sub-project (Appendix 4). Development would be phased to follow the construction of one fully equipped and staffed dip per village and one veterinary center per three villages. The land area in each village would be demarcated and on-farm inputs would be provided comprising watering points or dams, stock handling facilities, and improved breeding stock. Management of the stabilized breeding herd of 670 cows would be centered upon rotational and controlled grazing, greater productivity through improved nutrition, and a closely supervised dipping and vaccination program. Average investment per unit would amount to TSh 112,000. At full development, a typical village would produce about 12 surplus breeding animals for sale and generate a slaughter offtake of about 50 m. tons of beef per annum (Appendix 3, Table 2). Estimates of sales and operating expenses are given in Appendix 3, Table 3 and financial projections are in Table 4.

Regional Livestock Development Services

32. The sub-project would meet the costs of establishing the planning and field services for the implementation of the livestock production component. To direct the program, a livestock development specialist, who is expected to be internationally recruited, would be appointed. He would provide Livestock Planning capacity in the Project secretariat (and, therefore, in the Regional Planning Office) and would work in close cooperation with the GDR veterinary team which would continue to provide technical assistance for the animal health control services. Laboratory, storage and office facilities would be improved at Regional Headquarters and at the VIC Tabora, and provision would be made for essential vehicles and equipment. Nine dips and three veterinary centers would be constructed for specific sub-project development and housing provided for field staff. Recurrent budget support would be allocated for field services particularly for the operation and maintenance of vehicles. Total capital costs for the five year program would amount to TSh 2.8 million and budgetary support (including training costs) for the same period to a further TSh 3.4 million (Annex 10, Table 4a). ANNEX 3 Page 10

Tsetse Control

33. Problems of tsetse infestationand reinfestationof secondary growth in cleared areas now abandoned constitutea major constraint to the exploitationof large stretches of the miombo bordering the cleared and cultivated districts. The sub-projectwould finance the reinforcementand expansion of the Regional tsetse control division to undertake a tsetse survey of areas of potential developmentand to carry out a limited program of vector suppression. A fully mobile tsetse unit would be established under the direction of an experienced tsetse ecologist, also probably in- ternationallyrecruited, and would carry out a three year detailed survey of the forested areas of Nzega and Igunga Districts, of Urambo to the north of the railway line, and of western Tabora District. In addition to establishing current tsetse distribution,the survey would identify and record favored vegetative habitat and potential breeding areas, informationwhich would be essential to the formulationof tsetse control program and land- use planning. (The unit would provide the team preparing the Land Capa- bility Map of the Region with the relevant data for inclusion in their plan document). The division would be provided with limited clearance capacity to enable it to maintain key tsetse barriers in the developingareas and to deal with problems of reinfestation. Capital costs of the tsetse control component would total TSh 1.8 million and recurrent costs, including survey costs, TSh 4.1 million (Annex 11, Table 4b).

Marketing Improvement

34. In support of the TLMC market developmentprogram and to encourage liveweightsales, six additional markets would be equipped with cattle weighbridges. Sites would be chosen by Regional staff according to need based on recent sales figures. The estimated installedcosts of the weighbridges is TSh 480,000 (Annex 11, Table 4).

D. Operating Procedures, Costs and Benefits

35. Loan Procedures. The village developmentloan program would be administeredat Village Production Committeelevel. Development loans would be made by TRDB. Loan applicationand preparationwould be guided and en- dorsed by the Livestock Development Specialist (LDS). LDS would also assist in developing technical and economic evaluationprocedures with TBRD for livestock credits. Block loans would be made to Village Councils which would be responsiblefor the management of communal loans and the on-lendingof individual credits. TRDBs standard procedureswould apply to individualand joint loans and standardizedbookkeeping procedures would be establishedin the village. Technical supervisionwould be provided by LDS.

Cost Estimates

36. The total sub-projectcost (excludingcontingencies) is estimated at TSh 15.42 million over a five year period. The phasing of the village developmentshas been lagged by up to two years to allow for the build up of effective veterinary field services. Summary costs are (TSh Million): ANNEX 3 Page 11

Year 1 2 3 4 5 Total No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost

A. Village Developments

Capital Costs

(i) Nzega and Igunga (App 2, Table 1) - - 2 .19 2. .46 2 .46 - .27 6 1.38

(ii) Miombo (App 3, Table 1) - - - - 3. .17 3 .32 - .14 6 .62

sub-total .19 .63 .78 .41 2.01

Recurrent Costs .05 .08 .08 .08 .29

(iii) Incremental Working Capital (Annex 10, Table 4) - .20 .08 .20 .29 .77

sub-total .44 .79 1.06 .78 3.07

B. Technical Infrastructure

(i) Livestock Services (Annex 10, Table 4a) 1.85 1.16 1.12 1.25 .60 5.98

(ii) Tsetse Control (Annex 10, Table 4b) 1.37 .88 1.38 1.42 .84 5.89

(iii) Marketing (Annex 10, Table 4) - .24 .24 - - 6 .48

sub-total 3.22 2.28 2.74 2.67 1.44 12.35

Total Sub-project Costs 3.22 2.72 3.53 3.73 2.22 15.42

Details of costs are set out in Annex 10 and Appendices 2 and 3 to this Annex, as shown. All estimates have been based upon prices prevailing in November 1975, modified to October 1976 levels. ANNEX 3 Page 12

Producer and Economic Benefits

37. Budgets have been prepared for the village livestock development models and for each category of technical services costs. The production models indicate that participating villages would realize a good return on their investment; approximately 25% for existing villages and 22% for new developments. Village incomes arising from cattle production would increase from an estimated pre-development level of TSh 37,900 to between TSh 85,000 and TSh 100,000 in Year 6, averaging about TSh 380 per family. It is estimated that at full development, annual production from sub-project farms would amount to about 650 m. tons of beef and 150 surplus breeding females for sale.

38. Strengthening of the veterinary field service would be directly reflected in the increased herd productivity of the sub-project herds, amounting to 22,300 head. Better animal health control would also be obtained in neighbouring herds using improved district veterinary facilities. It is conservatively estimated that at least 50,000 adult cattle would benefit from the use of well-maintained dips and a full vaccination program. At an overall resultant decrease of 1% in the death rate, direct benefits amounting to the value of 500 head of TSh 175,000 would be obtained. The improved health of the stock would also be reflected in increased productivity and better market prices.

39. These results do assume the levels of management proposed in the Project, and the ability of the village council and assembly to grasp the necessity for rigorous control of the village lands. In particular, there can be no half measures with stock control associated with the dipping program on the village livestock farms. Cattle which have been regularly dipped and excluded from the challenge of tick-borne diseases become particularly prone to such diseases if ticks are allowed to re-encroach. ANNEX 3 Appendix 1

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Ministry of Agriculture - Veterinary Division: Regional Staff

A. Field Staff: Regional H.Q. Districts and Tsetse Control Tsetse 1/ 2/ Category H.Q. Nzega Igunga Tabora Urambo Div. Total Est. Bal.

Veterinary Officers 1 1 - 1 - - 3 7 (4)

Field Officers 3 2 - 1 1 1 8 11 (3)

Assistant Field Officers 2 6 6 11 7 3 35 45 (10)

Field Assistant 2 16 8 26 9 15 76 130 (54)

Clerical Staff 2 2 - - 1 - 5 - -

Drivers 3 2 - - - - 5 - -

Minor Staff - 4 - - - - 4 - -

Total 13 33 14 39 18 19 136 _ _

B. Field Staff: Veterinary Investigation Center, Tabora 3/

VIC

Veterinary Officers 2

Field Officers 1

Assistant Field Officers 3

Field Assistant 5

Clerical Staff 3

Drivers 2

Minor Staff 5

Total 21

1/ Staff as of 9/30/75; staff lists slightly overstate actual dispositions due to appointments of staff to political positions and long-term training assignments.

2/ Estalishment 1974/75.

3/ VIC, Tabora serve Tabora and Kigoma Regions, and Mpanda District. T'AN2WNIA

TABO0PARURAL DEVTlOIWENT PROJECT

Village Livestock Pa.ms - m,.oed Parming Areas (Neega and Ignnga)

Inttestsent Costs per Vilias (TSh 000)

Demarcated Village Area 3900 Ressrved Grazing Area: 50C Watering points per village- 4 N,mber of Famtli,a 250 (dry season grazing) Villages per Veterinary Center 3 Csltivated Area 753 Ado,lt head before develipment' 1352 Labor available for comsonal inprove- ents: 12500 man/days per annum labor reqnlred for on-fern inve-stents 6500 nan/days

Unit Total Total us$ In"eestment Itets TTnit Cost Year I fear . N mber *mat Equiv. . Amount (fs) Ni Cost No Coot

A A-oss Roads and TrackssY km 150 3 .5 3 5 6 1 0 120 5 Land Preparation

Flsrbre.ks 2/ km 300 7 2 1 7 21 14 4.2 506 o l-esere razing Ioprivements 3! ha 6o 100 6.0 100 6 0 200 1J.0 1,446 0 Watering Points

Da-s soit 12,600 2 25 2 2 16.2 5h 4 6,072 3 4,857 8 80 Stockhandling Fasclities

Corrals and Yardo unit ll,000 1 10. - - Stock 10.0 1,105 3 120 5 10 Skellere nd Fattening Pens 2/ vlit 500 100 50.0 150 75 0 125.0 15060.2 ,506.0 10 Sub-Toali 93 8 108.8 202.6 4 ,4ho.o 6,484 3 Physical Contingencies 10% 9 4 10.9 2D.3 2,441.0 648.4 Slb-Total 103 P 119 7 222.9 26,851.0 7,132 7 P Sthck Purchases

larroced tbIb6 head 700 - - 10 7 0 10 7 0 843.4 Breeding Females head 500 - _ 110 203) 4t 20 0 2,4o9 6 Go,b-Total _17 27.0 3.253 0 7,132 7 2 Total InvT -estnt Coot 'A & B) 103.2 146 7 249.9 30,104 6

2/ Valued at 50 mnn/days/kI; TShs 3 per can/day

2/10 a bretalk for reserved grazAg; valued at 100 oar/days//ko: TChs 3 per ann/day Timited 3/ clearing of undergrowth and demar-ati-o of area; 20 man/days/Ia; TCShn 3 par man/day.

m .]sal dem construction (approxinately 5G m. ); hrs 40 D8 operation at TSts 300 per hour; 200 nan/days hand labor at TShs 3 per man/day. / Individnal skelters/pens eheple of -onstnctiion; valued at TSh. 500 per head to include watering troughs and simple yard. ANNEX 3 Appendix 2 Table 2 TA?Z ANTI.

TABORAR!RAL DEVMELOP=3 PROJsCT

'Mil-a Livestock Farns - Mixed Farming Areas Nooga and Igs-b)

Herd Pro jeati.a. par Village

'ate-or- Per head PeforeB1 . hsi Deve-lop-ment

Years Years ------EndPod------of Farm Year------derd Conpo-stlon 0-5 6-20 1 2 4 6 7 8-2c

RB11 h20 68Y 50 50 5Y 50 50 50 u ss437 480 67r 30 2 60o 600 6oc 600 600 6cc 'nhives 12^ , 11D ?71 3C0 360 36c 360 360 360 testers 1-^4 s-ntbs 182 200 0 1i4 '7 120 127 162 162 162 i62 lairs _2-14 ro tOs 2Y0 220517 108 121 128 i62 162 162 162 b-feaers 03 ye- s 347 387 , c0 93' 100 114 121 154 154 154 Males -0 Years 380 420 ' 91 91 100 115 122 154 154 i14 Htfaers 3-4 yea;- 380 420 Ps -c 81 84 95 lo- Males 3-4 years 6c0 - Al 82 85 95 Maes 4-5 year 600 -- - 1- 16- 642 totanl llairb 4ra/ 13l 1 1560 TpW 1225 Tons-l 1-hB0600 117 154 -o 1329 T785 10 r P-rsl-ased Iteers - 93 100 250 250 25'J 250 250 I-tv-ni Anial Vsits- ls- 1327 1360 15715 175 1532 1532 1532

leanth s

PMills 6 4 3 3 3 3 055n h'l 42 30 30 30 30 30 'nl-ves ,; 7 hO C60 56 36 36 36 36 Hleaters -7-?4 s-ontic 1 sj 10 7 6 6 8 e 8 U4n1es 2-?4 -ont1 12 3 6 6 a 8 a Htaners -l years 0 9 6 i B Maleo Y- years 9 9 6s 6 48 8 etfers 3-4 yenrs a 1 3 6 4 5 - lIaies 3-4 Tes-s I I 14 - Mlales 4-2 years b 6 7 - _ - - - -

-b-Total 190 197 145 117 103 102 101 101 rl's-chasedbteers - - 7 12 12 _1 12 12 Ts-toY s-to 190 17197qq 13T -r9 T15 Ti 7 13 T13

s-slOT 700 700 _ _ 10

ls-5o- 7'n Inn- - nf - - --

Thvoiesn&

> q 1 rl 11- h-^ 6Pc 10 13 16- 5 5 slIos l 132 48o 13 30 7 73 50 60 00 22 90 lull tkers 3140 389 ------12 15 15 rplu M.-ales 62o 66c 47 6o 85 87 87 177 108 138 138 2 rr - P is 431 49o - - - - P4 e4 a e 88 11 11 S0mb-Total 70 103 176 165 1142 42 301 259 259 Isclased SIters 500 "n-,c00 _3 239 338 238 238 Total Dales 79 10 2h9 307 70 4o E39 1497 197

Taohns-nI C-offi ces,, Esit

calnion d ho 4s 45 50 60 - 6c 6o 60 'm-taintirs -cOalves d 25 23 -2 2C 15 00 1O 10 12 - 4idolts d 12 14 _0 7 5 5 5 I,slisa B-ula s 15 ?0 24 12 121 10 10 10 10 - los d 2 5 L2 12 9 10 -5 15 15 -asesfs d _ - _ _ _ - 10 10 12 r,11 s-vYatio Bll/'o-ns 1 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 c-e /Tota'l 4d 41 39 38 30 3f 37 37 37 Mar-s-ng Capa-ity 6/ Ha/is 3 1 3 1 3-1 2 8 1 2.5-1 2 3 1 3- 2 3 1 2 3 1 't-cbknc is-,e 'la/Av 2 .11 2 2-1 2 5-1 2 4-1 - l 2 3 1 3-i0 2 3-1 2 3 1 Pinuohter lfftake 7/ 0 7 14 11 D 15 1_ 1 15 Emts-t-On Mate dt 1 4 11 14 11 9 15 I1 I6 I6

Car-ass Weight Yearn Years Sla-ghter Offtate c-4 ,-20 M Tomses iTonnes MOTonsese.Ton M.'oonesTes M.Ton M.Tonesses MTo- IsT-i

',,Is 200 220 2 0 2h 3.2 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 1 I 1 1 Cos 1147 155 1.9 4 2 10 5 10 2 7.0 9 4 13 3 13 9 13.9 H-f- 117 120 - - - - - 1.2 I 9 1 8

Surpl- 1 u0 270 8 5 10.9 19.3 15 7 15.7 32.0 21.6 27 6 77 6 PMr-hased Stlers 200 ?00 - - - i8.6 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6 47.6 Total Ca-nan-Wblght 12 3 176 29 r 71.3 89 0 9 l 2 Eo 0 -anal In-reAental Car-ass ikeivbt - 5.3 16 7 33.2 59.0 76.7 73.1 79.7 79.7

Cattle values are s-o-te- o rise by about 10 sn ye-r 5 due to s-pr-ved stadards sf s-utritiln, -asagenant and henlth Vnlle based on current narket pls-s-n d e-ntei s of -aroass weights.

2/ Breed-ng sf 3 year sId hasters,offs encsng year 5; enarlier maturty ashbered throogh improved nuirtloas

3' Herd cnlled of older sales sn Year 1 foe 109 reds-ts-n-nt held s-mbers (A V 's) Offtake af mature 3 ts 4 year old .ales o-omens-no Year 4

4-/ Anamni la-tssrnlrla-1tsd as Totsl hbed les 1009 of alves

Ty-rohnsed stee-s fur fats-sng s-trodicee lens I foils-sng e-tsbl-sh-ent sf forage and legume os-

K''artog Cspas-ty and s--king rnte based upsn abuut 3000 tn avahlable fall-w and bask gra-sg far farm bred sts-k on y. Staok feed for fatten-ng st-ik .. o-ided thro-gh planting of fos-age/leg-mes.

7/ Tatni fars bred stook s-ld fur sas-ghter repressed an a percentige of total herd (ea-Isd-ng purs-s-ed steers)

-/ Totn farm- bred stack s-ld for slnoghter nod breed,ng eapres-sd as a percentage of ttsal herd (ea-luding pus-hased steera). IAIIZASIr-

TAEO2T hhl-. ',E,F-LCBI*E1i DJIECIT

ulage L-mestoch Fas- - : oxe,Tarl. Areas'eg

Estimate of Sales and Operating Exrerses pat Village (TSh' 000)

I no' Beforer e ------a------"at Coat Ielopoent 1 2 4 7-20 TShs I

A Slesa -

FBnch trod Detfle - - 4D ' 57 86 7 76 e 135.] 163.6 14th4 148.L

Purchased .trers - - - - )6 5 71.0 119.0 1190 119.0 119.u

TOTAL OALEL 4l5j 57.0 133 14'7.8 254.1 282 6 267 4 26'7.4

P Operating Fxpensea

Forage Prod-ctios Expenses 21 hBa 1 - - 2.5 5. f 5.0 5.0 5.° 5.0

Animal Health

Vaccines, Prllgs & Drenches _"/ head 20 2.0 10.0 31.2 33.7 33.7 32.8 32.8 32.8 Mtinerals 9/ - 10 - 52. 16.6 19 3 19 3 18.9 18.9 18.J

qob-T.tal 2.0 15.0 47.8 53.0 53.0 51.7 51.7 51.7

Maintenance

Access Roads & Oracing Reser-ee 5%,of calue - - 3 3 .3 .3 .3 .3 lams - lS of value - - 1.2 55 2.5 2.5 ?.5 2.5 Stock hIandling Fertilizers 5% of calue _ 68 68 6.8 6.8 68

Sath-Total - - 4 9.6 9,6 9.6 9.6 9.6

Sub-Total Expenses 2.0 15.h 54 3 67 6, 67.6 66 3 66.3 66 3

Contingensies 5t .1 C.6 2'.7 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3

SBb-Total 2.1 15.8 37.0 71,( 71.0 69.6 69.6 69.6

Steer Purchases - 38 S5.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0

TOTAL OPERATINGEXPENSES _ 1 15.o6 95." 125 166 0 164.5 164.6 164.6 let Operating Income 37.9 41.c 38.2; 28 R 88 1 118.o 102.8 IO1.8

Annual Incremental OperaFilg Incone - 3.3 ' 3 (15 11 50 2 So 1 64 9 ,4. 9

I fattle sales only included: sales of snall stock and domestic poultry treated an indlvidioal farm income.

/ (a Cettle fattening req.iremcnts cale-lated at 6 kEgIry metter (D.M.) and 2 kgs of grain or legume per head per day arid/or150 day faeten.ng perlod: Bmerege daily weight gain o t' kgo. Forage and grain/logume cut and fPd aB green shop Total requirement per head

I M. 900 kgs grsin/legcse 305 kgs

C,rLt-mation requ-reme-ts per head

Ego/he ha per head

Forage ) 6ooO0 15 Legune 700) Grain 700 .20 As grain also rrodocco frage, total cUltivati-c per head 1n reduced j 3 ha (Year 2 255 has; Yeers 3-20 5i hao/year) (b' Cultivation costs include -eed and fertiller rosts for grass/legune production. 3/ Includes fll1 cost of treatments for rench bred eas lnsonlv. tattenong steers purchased already vaccinated end small c-st of drenches end drugs (excluding dipping) absorbed by budgeted figsure 4/ For all animals rs >

/ No labor charges inolnded; all labor 000ts borne by -rudividual ownere or by village on self help basis- a TANZANIA

TABOO) NODRALDEIELOOPI' P300ECT

Villaog Lmvestolk Farms - Mlixed Farming Areas (Nerga and Agonga.

Fanasojal Oreieetnese cad Isgisative Fptsanlial Rate of Recess per Villacet (TSh '000)

AeFere II 72 13-19 20 A FINANCTAL PROOJPCTTONS Development 1 2 3 4 6 _2 IC

Cash InfO nsa 267.4 267.4.67.4 -G7.4 267.4 I ale- 40oo 7 1 133 2 147.3 254.1 282.6 267.4 267 4 267.4 PT7 4

2. Lo-F-term Inve6tments _ (a) Development Loan - 60.o 80.0 - - - _- - - _- _ (35 BorrowersI o-- n-httibt r / _ 43.1 66.,6

donkong Capital Resol-eos.

(am) Iert-os Teen's Balance - - Locs for Lien-tork (b) Short-term 95 95.'4 p-rh6nes 2/ _.- 38.0 95.0 95,0) 95.Z 925..5. 95. 0 .0 95.0 05q5.0 20 O.O 362.8 362.8 TOTAL 40.3 16o.i 317 8 242.8 349.1 377.6 362.4 362.4 362 4 362 4 362.4 36s.4 362.4

.jsehOutflow

l bono-tens Inoentonlt. 4/

(a' Devetosteot Lost - 60.0 80 0 (b) Penrosrr Contnb..t.o- - 43 I 66.o

2 "Peratill LryPernee

(a' lsoluauon of loaf n,nterent and 69.6 69.6 69.6 69.6 Isoestohk ronrhas-s 2.1 47.9 57.0 71.0 71.0 69.6 69 6 69.6 69 6 69.6 69.6 (43 Loan interest on: 4.o 2.7 1.4 - - 1i) Development Loan - 7,1 11.9 11.9 11.9 10 6 9.3 7.9 6.6 5.3 8.1.,1 8.1 8.i 8.1 Iii' Shont-term Loan - - 3.2 8 1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1

3 Lnt Rapaents- - - (a) D-evlop-ent Loan - - - ).3 15 17 5 15.5 17.5 15.5 15.7 15.5 16.o 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 (b) Ohont.tenn InanI _ _ 38 0 95.0 95.0 99.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 4 Li-et-ozh 38.o3Pr(3:aoes 95.0 35.0 97..0 942 9" 95.0 95.0 95.0 285.1 267.7 267 7 SOb-Total 1 2 156.1 256 7 224.0 296.5 293.8 9192.5 291.1 289.8 288.5 287.2 281.9

r Apploos-ate -ontrboti-on of cattle herd 38.0 to Carmen's nonobtm living costa 37.9 38.0 32.0 38 2o 38.0 38.0 38.2 38.0 38.C 28 0 38.0 38.0 38 . 38.0

TOTAL - 194.1 P94.7 262.0 334.5 331-8 330.5 325.1 323. tL26.9 325.2 323.9 323.1 305.1 305.1 38.5 39.3 57.3 57.3 r Expeoted Cash BOsakno of Year s d - 34.o) 23.1 (19.23 14.6 45.8 31.9 33.3 34 6 35.9 37.2 FINANCIALRATE OF oETOO3N

New Inoettmnts (103 S3 '1,7 - 649 64.9 64 64 9 64.9 G4," 7n-renental operating me-ws 9/ 3.3 0.3 (15.43 58.6 80.1 64.9 64.9 64.9 (29.3) Incremental Herd "aloe 35.6 Net B-nefit Stre-m (106.53 li47.0) (15 1) 50.2 Sc 1 64 9 64.9 64 q 64 0 64.9 64 9 4 3 64.9

Iad..c.ies Fos-nnal1 Rats of Rerurn: 20%

1' Average term of development lossan -Id be 12 years at e 1,/24 terest and three year period of grace on osp,ta_ vepayments. 2/ Approo-mately 420 of total -nvestment rost 3/ Fantetnig loans woIld be made by T3RDt at 8 1/2% interest 4/ Represents the total -at of nea investments onsl-ding breedng stook The term 'inc-e-ntal - -esd to denote nnoeeaes an P-ePat-g incme avnr pse-d-selnoPent 1-oel. Onorer-ntsl her- value i oalv..Ines an Ixf-erenoestosror. rp1-9-velop-ont mod *':11 develop snt herd salel-lower resid-al als refle-te decrease io sOos of ranch bred h-end inJ coordanCe with .oversmen1 liv-stok pyo11-or- tot Region ITP, TAN7A2IA

TABORA RURAL DEVEWPMENTPROJECT

Village Livestock Farms - Rev Developments (Mi-obo Zone)

InvestUC.lt Costa aer Village (TSh' 00)

Demarcated Village Area 4200 ha Reserved Orating Area: 1400 ha Watering points per village: 4 Number of families: 250 (dry season grazing) Villages per Veterinary Center: 3 Calculated Area: 500 ha Adult herd before development: 1352 Labor available for ccm,unea improvements: 12500 man/days per annum Dips per village: 1 Labor required /or on-farm developments

Unit Unit Year 1 Year 2 Totsl Total us$ Cost No Cost No Cost Units Cost flS 3 4m1ent Amount

A Access Roads and Tracks km 150 3 5 3 .5 6 1 0 120 5 Land Preparation

Firebreaks 2/ km 300 7 2.1 7 2.1 i4 4.2 5o6 o Reserved Grazing ha 6o 100 6.o 1o0 6.o 200 12 0 1,445.8

Watering Points

Dams V unit 12,600 2 25.2 2 25.2 4 50.4 6,072.3 80 4,857.8

Stockhandling Facilities

Corrals 2 yards unit 10,000 1 10.0 - - 10.0 1.204.8 10 1,205.0 P ub-Totel 43.8 33.8 77 6 9,349.4 4,978.3 Physical Contingencies 10% 4-4 3-4 7.8 47843. Sub-Total 37.2 o404 5,47

B. Stock Purches

Improved Bulls head 700 5 3.5 5 3.5 7.0 843.4 Breeding Females head 500 20 10.0 20 10.0 20.0 2,409 6 Sub-Total 13.5 13.5 27.0 3,253.0 40 Total Investment Cost (A & B) 61 7 50 7 112 4 13,537.4 40 5,476.1

6/ Valued at 50 man/Bays/ice;TSna 3 per man/amy.

L/ 10 n. breaks cleared for reserved grazing; valued at 100 man/dmys/k.; Tila 3 per an/day.

3 Limited clearing of undergrowth; 20 man/days/ha: TSha 3 per unc/day

/ Smali dam conatruction approidmately 5o 0; 40 irs D8 operation at Tshi 300/per hour; 200 nan/days hard labor valued at TShi 3 per man/day.

I ANNEX3 Appendix 3 Table 2

TANZAIIA

TABORARURAL DFVELOPMET PROJECT'

Village Livestock Farms - New Developments (Miombo Zone)

Herd Projections per Villase

Category Per head Before ------End of Farm Year------______Value Development 1 2 3 4 6 7-20 Herd Composition Years 0-5 Years 6-20

Bulls 620 680 60 66 54 54 54 54 54 54 Cows 430 480 670 670 670 670 670 670 670 670 Calves 100 110 268 301 335 402 402 402 402 402 Heifers 9-24 months 180 200 100 107 120 142 181 181 181 181 Males 9-24 months 200 220 101 108 121 143 181 181 181 181 Heifers 2-3 years | 340 380 90 90 99 114 135 172 172 172 Males 2-3 years 380 420 91 91 100 115 136 172 172 172 Heifers 3-4 years 380 420 80 81 84 94 108 - - - 4 Males 3- years 600 - 81 82 85 95 - - - - Males 4-5 years 600 - 73 73 4SI-

Total herd 1620 669 113 1829 186 1832 1832 1832 Total Average 1352 p 13 7 1

Deaths

Bulls - 6 6 4 3 3 3 3 3 Cows - - 67 67 47 34 34 34 34 34 Calves _ _ 67 53 60 50 40 40 40 40 Heifers 9-24 months - - 10 10 8 6 7 9 9 9 Males 9-24 months _ _ 10 10 8 6 7 9 9 9 Heifers 2-3 years - 9 9 6 5 6 7 9 9 Males 2-3 years - - 9 9 6 5 6 7 9 9 Heifers 3-4 years - - 8 8 6 4 5 5 7 8 6 4 5 -- Males 43-4 Ysars _ _ Males -5 years - - 6 7 5 - _ -

Total Deaths 199 187 156 117 113 l14 113 113

Purchases

Bulls 700 700 - 5 5 - - - - - Breeding Females 500 500 - 20 20 -

Total Purchases - 25 25 - - - - -

Sales

Cull Bulls 620 68o 10 10 17 5 5 5 5 5 Cull Cows 430 480 13 25 48 46 55 100 100 100 Cull Heifers 340 380 - - - - - 14 17 17 Surplus Males 600 660 47 55 95 117 191 121 155 155 Surplus Females 430 480 _ 83 12 12

Total Sales 70 90 160 168 251 323 289 289 Unit Technical Coefficients

Calving % 40 45 50 60 60 60 60 60 Mortalities - Calves % 25 20 20 15 10 10 10 10 - Adults 10 10 7 5 5 5 5 5 Culling - Bulls 15 15 25 10 10 10 10 10 - Cows 2 4 7 7 8 15 15 15 - Heifers * - - - - - 10 10 10 Bull/Cow Ratio Bull/Cows 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Cows/Total Herd % 41 40 4o 36 36 36 36 36 Carrying Capacity J Ha/Av 3:1 3:1 3:1 29:1 29:1 29:1 29:1 29:1 Stocking Rate Ha/Av 3:1 3:1 3:1 29:1 29:1 29:1 29:1 29:1 Slaughter Offtake 6 4 5 12 7 13 13 15 15 Extraction Rate Z/ 4 5 12 7 13 17 16 16 Carcass Weight Slaughter Offtake Years 0-5 Years 6-20 M.Tonnes M.Tonnes M.Tonnes M.Tonnes M.Tonnes M,Tonnes M.Tonnes M.Tonnes

Bulls 200 220 2.0 2.0 3.4 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 Cows 140 155 1.8 3.5 6.7 6.4 7.7 15.5 15.5 15.5 Heifers 110 120 - - - - 1.7 2.0 2.0 Surplus Males 180 200 8.5 2 17.1 21.1 382 24.2 310 Total Carcass Weight 133l !2'.2 4i Annual Ineremertal Carcass Weight - 2.1 13.9 15.2 29.2 3

C/Cattle values are expected to rise by about 10% a year 5 due to improved standards of nutrition, management and health. Values based on current market prices and carcass weights.

| Breeding of 3 year old heifers commencing year 5; earliest maturity due to improved nutrition.

Herd eulled of older males in year 2. Offtake of 3 to 4 year old males c g year 4.

Animal Unit calculated as total herd less 100% of calves.

2 Carrying capacity and stocking rates based on 3500 ha follow and bush grazing plus 500 to 700 has crop residue on cultivated lands.

| Total farm-bred stock sold for slaughter exported as a percentage of the total herd.

V Total farm-bred stock sold for slaughter and breeding expressed as a percentage of total herd. TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Village Livestock Farm - New Developments (Miombo Zone)

Eatimate of Sales and Operatina Expenses per Village (TSh '000)

Unit Before Unit Cost DeveloPment 1 2 3 4 6 7-20 - ~~~~TShsa72

A. Sales

Cattle - - 40. - 88.2 93.1 114.6 176.4 165.9 165.9 Total Sales 4o.0 88.2 93.1 114.6 176.4 165.9 165.9 B. Operating Expenses

Animal Health

Vaccines, Drugs & Drenches Head 30 2.0 5.0 16.7 27.4 28 0 36.6 55.0 55.0 Minerals - 10 11.0 16.7 18.3 18.7 18.3 18.3 18.3 Sub-Total 2.0 16.0 33.4 45.7 46.7 54.9 73.3 73.3 Maintenance

Access Roads & Grazing Reserves - 5% of value - _ .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 .2 Dams _ 10% of value - - 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Stock Handling Facilities - 10% of value _ _ 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Sub-Total _ 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 Contingencies 51 0.1 1.0 l.9 2.5 2.5 2.9 33 3 Total Operating Expenses 2.1 17.0 37.6 51.8 52.8 61.4 80.2 80.2 Net Operating Income 37.9 50.6 41.3 61.8 115.0 85.7 85.7 Annual Incremental Operating Income (4.9) 12.7 3.4 23.9 77.1 47.8 47.8

i Cattle sales only included; sales of small stock and domestic poultry treated as individual farm income.

Includes prophylactic land curator treatments for trypanosomosis control and dipping costs are veterinary treatment during period of herd build up are subsidized. Cost of treatment per head per annum to produce

Year TShs

1 5 2 10 3 15 H 54 20a15 6-20 30 HIW A nominal expense of TShs 2000 has been included to cover cost of pre-development treatments.

N/No labor charges included; all labor costs borne by individual owners or by village on self help basis.

July 19, 1976 TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Village Livestock Farm - New Developments (Miombo Zone) Finaca roetos and Indicative FncilRtofReturn per Village (TSh 000)

Before A. FINANCIAL PROJECTiONS Development 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13-19 20

Cash Inflows

1. Sales 40.0 50.0 88.2 93.1 141.4 176.4 165.9 165.9 165.9 165.9 165.9 165.9 165.9 165.9 165.9

2. Long-term Investments - 43.5 38.5 ------

(a) Development Loan - 18.0 12.0 - (b) Borrowers Contribution 2/ ______

3. Working Capital Resources

(a) Previous Year's Cash Balance ------_ _ (b) Short-term Loans

TOTAL 40.0 111.5 138.7 93.1 141.4 176 4 165.9 165.9 165.9 165.9 165.9 165.9 165.9 165.9 165.9

Cash Outflow

I Long-term Investments

(a)DDevelopment Loan - 43.5 38.5 ------(b) Borrowers Contribution - 18.0 12.0

2. Operating Expenses

(a) Excluding of Loan Interest 8.5 26.2 37.6 51.8 52.8 61.4 80.2 80.2 80.2 80.2 80.2 80.2 80.2 80.2 80.2 (b) Interest on Development Loan - 3.7 7,0 7.0 7.0 6.1 5.2 4.3 3.5 2.6 1.7 .9 - - -

3. Repayments on Development Loan - _ - 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.0 -

Sub-Total 8,5 91.4 95.1 68.8 70.1 77.8 95.7 94.8 94.0 93.1 92.1 91.1 80.2 80.2 80.2

4. Approximate contribution of cattle herd to farmer's minimum living costs 31.5 20.1 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 2° ° 50.0° 50-0 50-0 50.0 0 50.0 50.0 50.0

TOTAL 40.0 111.5 120.1 93 8 95.1 102.8 145.7 144.8 144.0 143.1 142.1 141.1 130.2 130.2 130.2

5 Expected Cash Balance at Year's End - - 18.6 (0.7) 46.3 73.6 20.2 21.1 21.9 22.8 23.8 24.8 35.7 35.7 35.7

B. FINANCIAL RATE OF RETURN

New Investments (61.7) (50.7) ------

Incremental Operating Income ( 4.9) (12.7) 3.4 23.9 77.1 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8

Incremental Herd Value - _ - _ - _ _ - - _ - - 14.-6

Net Benefit Stream (66.6) (64) 4 23.9 77.1 47.8 47.8 417.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 62.4

Financial Rate of Return: 22% i/ Average term of development loan would be 11 years at 8.55 interest and three year period of gross on capital repayment.

/ ApproximatelY 20% of total investment cost.

3/ The term incremental is used to denote increases in operating income over pre-development level. Incremental herd value is calculated as the difference between pre-development and full development herd value. July 19, 1976

ANNEX 4

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Rural Water Supply Component

A. The Water Sector in Tanzania

Tanzania: Water Availability Para. 1 Tanzania: Rural Water Supply Situation Para. 3 Tanzania: Water Supply Sector Organization Para. 6

B. Water in Tabora Region

Tabora Region: Water Availability Para. 11 Tabora Region: Rural Water Supply Situation Para. 14 Tabora Region: Organization of the Regional Water Department (RWD) (Appendix 2) Para. 15

C. The Water Supply Component

Objectives and Implementation Para. 16 Implementation Organization Para. 20 Water Master Plan Para. 22 Design of water supplies Para. 24 Construction of Water Supplies Para. 25 Operation of water supplies Para. 27 Operating Costs of Water Supplies Para. 31 Time Schedule Para. 33 Impact of Water Sector Para. 34

Appendix 1: Population Projections, Tabora Region

Appendix 2: Regional Water Department Tabora - Organization Chart, WB 16561

Appendix 3: Water Master Plan Draft Terms of Reference

Appendix 4: Village Population to be Supplied with Water, 1977-82, and Unit Costs

Appendix 5: Village Water Supplies - Estimate of Annual Operation and Maintenance Expenses

Appendix 6: Tentative Time Schedule for Water Supply Component

Appendix 7: Projection of Village Population without Water Supply

Appendix 8: Estimate of Capital Cost for Rural Water Supplies in Period 1980-1990

ANNEX 4 Page 1

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Rural Water Supply Component

A. The Water Sector in Tanzania

Tanzania: Water Availability

1. Tanzania is generally a dry country, poor in surface and groundwater. The rivers belong to the three drainage basins. The eastern basin, oriented to the Indian Ocean, includes a few small coastal rivers of which the Pangani and Rufiji are the largest. In the west, the rivers flow into Lake Tanganyika and the Zaire river, and the northwest basin drains into Lake Victoria and the Nile. The driest regions are in the center and in the Rift Valleys, which have no rivers and scarce groundwater. The central plateau, on which Tabora lies, gets less than one meter of rainfall and the Rift Valleys, protected from the wet winds, are even drier. Presence of turbidity of surface water, salinity of many groundwater resources and high fluoride content in some aquifers create a water quality problem.

2. Hydrological and hydrogeological information concerning available water sources is scarce, confined usually to a few sporadic observations. In 1969, a start was made on a program to investigate the available water resources in each Region and prepare an inventory assessing the reliability, quantity and quality of the sources. So far, the work has been finished in two Regions and work is in progress in several more. However, scheduled investigations financed by bilateral aid will take more than five years, and several Regions including Tabora are excluded from existing plans because of lack of funds.

Tanzania: Rural Water Supply Situation

3. In 1971, the first long-term program for water supply was prepared with the objective that the entire rural population would be supplied with safe water in twenty years (21.5 million persons by 1991). The initial capital cost estimate of this program was US$310.0 million, implying about US$15.0 million (in constant prices) to be spent in each of the following twenty years. To reduce the cost of the program, implementation was to be by Government's own manpower using consultants or contractors only to a limited extent.

4. Funds allocated for rural water supply development have been increased annually through the Program but the allocations have always been less than needed and implementation is much behind schedule. At present, only about 20% of the rural population draw water from village water systems -- about 2/3rds of the target. In view of the country's difficult economic situation, which is expected to continue for the next several years, it can be expected that the rural water supply program will be further slowed down. ANNEX 4 Page 2

5. The selection of villages for new water supply construction is made by the Regional administration. The type of water supply depends on local conditions and ranges from a simple protected spring or well with a hand pump, to a distribution system serving the consumers through public standpipes. House connections are not used in villages and so far water in rural areas has been supplied free of charge. Running expenditures, totalling yearly about US$0.8 million, come from the government budget. It is envisaged, however, that ultimately village cooperatives, when better organized and with access to a steady income from agricultural production, will take over the maintenance and operation of rural supplies with government assistance in the form of professional advice and technical assistance when needed.

Tanzania: Water Supply Sector Organization

6. The Ministry of Water Development and Power was established in 1969 to consolidate within one ministry the activities in the water and power sectors. Following decentral ation in 1972, direct control of implementation of the water supply programs was passed to the 20 Regions. In 1975, the Ministry's responsibility was extended to the field of mineral resources and is now called Ministry of Water, Energy and Minerals (Maji).

7. The Regional Water Engineer (RWE) is in charge of water development in the Region, and has direct control over the design and construction of rural water supplies and over the operation and maintenance of all water supplies. The RWE is responsible to the Regional Development Director (RDD). A direct link between the central ministry and RWE exists only for purely technical advice: all other contacts are made through the Regional administration. RWE departmental organization differs from Region to Region, but usually it has an administration and accounts section; an engineering section responsible for planning and design; a construction section; an operations section; and maintenance workshops; and employs altogether about 200 to 500 persons of all categories.

8. The Ministry is responsible for advising the Regions on stan- dardization of designs for rural water supplies, particularly of mechanical plant, and also reserves the power to check and modify the design of technically difficult projects such as dams. The Ministry has to be consulted on, and may act for the Regions as an agent in, all procurement of construction material, equipment and transport. The Ministry operates several special construction teams equipped either with heavy earth moving tractors or with drilling machines which it rents to Regions for Regional projects.

9. Manpower: All RWE's permanent staff are employees of Maji; their salaries are paid from the Ministry's central vote and they are subject to transfer, subject to the RDD's agreement, according to national needs. The Ministry also organizes the training of all categories of sub-professional grades and it has to be consulted in all training matters. The Ministry employed, in 1975, about 7,000 persons, the majority working in operations ANNEX 4 Page 3 and maintenance. The main problem in all activities in the sector remains the shortage of professionalsand, in certain categories, the lack of skill training. Professionalvacancies have never been completely filled and dependence on expatriate engineerswill continue at least until 1979. In that year, a group of over 100 Tanzanian civil engineers sent to India for a regular four-year degree course will be available. However, Tanzanian geologists,hydrologists and chemists will have to be supplementedby further recruitmentfrom abroad even after 1979, until the overseas training for Tanzanians can be arranged and completed. The shortage of civil engineering techniciansprobably will be eased by 1980 by output from the Ministry's expanded Water Resources Institute, but a shortage of mechanical and electrical technicianswill continue for years and the vacancies will need to be filled by overseas recruitment. The shortage of skilled and semi-skilled workers and ways of overcoming it are currently under special Ministry study.

10. Funding: Water supply development programs are financed from both national and external sources channelled through the national budget. Funds for operation and maintenance are provided from national sources and come through an annual budget for recurrent expenditures. In addition, several bilateral technical assistance programs provide advisers and regular staff. The distributionof both development and recurrent funds for rural water supply between the Ministry and the Regions in the last three years is illustratedbelow:

Rural Water Supply Budgets, 1973/74 - 1975/76 (TSh'000)

DEVELOPMENTBUDGET RECURRENT BUDGET 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1973/74 1974/75 1975/76

Ministry 20.40 18.80 76.00 - - - Regions 41.01 42.06 84.80 5.42 6.46 6.70 TOTAL 61.41 60.86 160.80 5.42 6.46 6.70

Tabora Region 1.80 1.95 2.57 0.19 0.25 0.30

Not approved estimate.

B. Water in Tabora Region

Tabora Region: Water Availability

11. There is little known about the hydrology of Tabora Region and even less of the hydrogeologyand groundwater. However, from the limited informationavailable, it seems that groundwateris scarce or completely absent in the north-easternpart of the region, particularly ANNEX 4 Page 4 in Igunga District. The most favorable situation is found in north-western Tabora where groundwater appears to be available in both shallow and deep horizons. In central and southern areas, a reasonable probability of obtaining water from shallow wells exists but this depends on the actual locality. The deeper water horizons are similarly spotty. The boreholes in the central part, i.e. in Tabora District are likely to be much deeper than in Urambo District and groundwater from deeper horizons generally provides smaller yields. Both shallow and deep groundwater may, depending on locality, be too saline to be palatable.

12. It is estimated that about 250,000 persons (36% of the 1975 rural population) with about 400,000 head of cattle, can be supplied only from surface water sources. A further 245,000 persons could be supplied by groundwater, and of these, about 180,000 persons with an equivalent number of cattle should be supplied from shallow wells and the rest from boreholes. The increase of rural population in the period 1975-90, i.e. about 370,000 persons, could be supplied in a similar pattern as assumed for 1975. (The growth of population by Districts is shown at Appendix 1).

13. In the conditions of Tabora Region, it is estimated that the capital costs for the different water supply types is:

Shallow well with hand pump TSh 50-200 per person, depending on number of persons per well

Boreholes with pump and TSh 300-350 per person depending on small reservoir the diameter and depth of the borehole

Dam, with treatment plant TSh 400 - over 1000 per person depend- and extensive distribution ing on the size of the scheme. Smaller system schemes are more expensive.

Tabora Region: Rural Water Supply Situation

14. The population of Tabora Region in 1976 is about 780,000 persons. About 70,000 persons lived in townships and the remaining 710,000 persons in rural areas, mostly concentrated in villages which by now, are or shortly will be, registered. About 160,000 persons in villages are supplied with water from 36 piped systems or charcos (open reservoirs) constructed in the last 10 years. The remaining rural population get ANNEX 4 Page 5 their water from shallow wells, rivers or open reservoirs,many carrying it long distances to their homes. In general, only a very small part of the population is supplied in a satisfactorymanner. A part of the existing system was designed for smaller populationswhilst about 10% of the wells and boreholes contain unsuitable water. Shallow wells, and a majority of small ponds or reservoirs, often dry up for weeks at a time.

Tabora Region: Organizationof the Regional Water Department (RWD) (Appendix2)

15. The Tabora RWD consists of the following units:

(a) Financial and AdministrativeDivision, responsible for general administration,stores, general accountingand water accounting in the towns in which water is paid for. It has 30 persons on its permanent staff. The head of the division is an assistant accountant.

(b) Planning and Project PreparationDivision, responsible for the preparation of perspectiveand yearly plans for development and for the investigationand design of rural water supplies. It has 17 permanent staff and the head of the division is an executive engineer.

(c) Operation and N>intenance Division, headed by a Water Inspector, responsiblefor the operation of rural and urban water supplies and for the maintenance of mechanical plant and equipment. It consists of two separate units:

(i) the maintenanceunit which operates the mechanical and electrical maintenanceworkshops. Its biggest activity is the maintenance of cars and trucks. The unit has 40 permanent staff headed by a mechanical engineer;

(ii) an operationsunit which concentrateson maintenance of water supply structures;maintenance of distribution systems; repair of leakages and pipe bursts; operation of pumpstations,and water treatment plants; and maintenance of dams. The unit has 150 permanent staff, headed by a senior water technician.

(d) ConstructionDivision, responsiblefor the constructionof rural water supplies. It consists of three units, under an executive engineer; ANNEX 4 Page 6

(i) a yard preparation unit, comprising two groups manufacturing wooden parts of buildings and concrete building elements in the yard. The unit has 6 permanent staff;

(ii) an earth moving unit which coordinates the operation of machinery rented frow the Ministry for the construction of dams or haffirs. The unit has 10 permanent staff and is headed by a technical assistant;

(iii) a water supply construction unit dealing with the construction of boreholes, shallow wells and water supply schemes. The unit has 12 persons organized in six working teams.

(e) Research and Training Division, responsible for the water and soil laboratory, and rainfall and riverflow recording. It also keeps records of staff training. The division has 6 permanent staff and is headed by a senior water technician.

C. The Water Supply Component

Objectives and Implementation

16. The water supply component of the Tabora Rural Development Project has a key supporting role with both direct production effects and strong influence on the stabilization of the recently created villages. It would provide a low cost water source and simple water installation in selected villages with production potential. The cost of the component is about US$5.5 million including about US$2.4 million local costs. The component has two parts. The first part estimated to be about US$1.6 million, is the systematic investigation of all water resources and the preparation, on this basis, of a Regional Water Master Plan, and the design of water supplies. The second part, to be implemented by Regional direct labor, is the construction of water supplies at an estimated cost of about US$3.9 million. Because of the urgent need for improving the water supply situation in many villages, development of water sources will proceed simultaneously with the preparation of the Water Master Plan. The design and construction of water supplies is expected to take five years and the preparation of the Water Master Plan, 1-1/2 years.

17. The selection of villages for water supply construction program would be made by the Regional administration. The design and construction of water supplies would be executed by the RWD and would follow the procedures established for development projects. The Project would increase the capacity of the RWD to a level adequate for the preparation and implementation of the water supply component. ANNEX 4 Page 7

18. The type of water supply installedwould depend on the conditions of a particularvillage. As a rule, first priority would be given to groundwater reachable by shallow wells and pumped by handpumps. In the absence of shallow groundwater,the feasibilityof a borehole, equipped with a pump, engine, elevated tank and standpipewould be investigated. Only in areas with a complete lack of groundwaterwould water installation based on surface water be developed.

19. The program for the componentwould be flexible. It could fully satisfy about 75-100 villages, to be selected by the Regional administration from all four Districts on the basis of least cost, production impact, and need. However, rather than provide optimum supplies to rather few villages, investmentswould be made to a level sufficientto assure as many villages as possible of enough water within reasonablewalking distance, with the prospect that additionalwater resourceswould be opened up at a later date. Although optimal water-source:userratios might be 1:100 persons for shallow wells and 1:1500 for boreholes, targets for villages in this phase should probably be 1:200 and 1:2000 respectivelyand costs have been calculated on this basis. This still implies 9-10 wells or one borehole per average village. Priority would be given to improving supplies in any villages included in the ongoing IDA-assistedMaize Project where there may be a critical need, and to supplementingsupplies in the villages selected for the main Project in most of which, however, it is anticipated that availability of adequate supplies will have been confirmed as a condition of selection.

ImplementationOrganization

20. Project preparationand implementationwould be at the Regional level under the RWE, with manpower strengthenedin practically all departments. Design capacity would be increased by provision of professional manpower and transport, and constructioncapacity would receive enhanced skilled supervision capability and transport,both for the construction of shallow wells and other water schemes. For the constructionof boreholes and dams, RWE would hire drilling and earth moving teams from the Ministry. Maintenance and operation capacity should be increased initially to meet present requirements;the operation and maintenanceof new water supplies developed under the sub-projectwould have to be studied and evaluated at a later stage when the types of new water supplies would be known.

21. Tanzanian professionalmanpower required for the sub-project would be procured by the Ministry on RWE's request; the personnelwould be employed on standard Government terms and the cost of such personnel would be met from Project funds. For the Water Master Plan, proposals would be invited from consultantson the basis of terms of reference which will be agreed with IDA (Appendix 3). Professionalsupervision and coordination with other Regional Water Master Plans would be by the Ministry, but approval of the consultant'sdetailed work schedule and on-site supervisionwould be RWE's responsibility. Project equipment and constructionmaterial would be procured in accordancewith Bank guidelines. ANNEX 4 Page 8

Water Master Plan

22. Water Master Plans (WMP) have been prepared for Dodoma and Shinyanga Regions (1972). They are almost completed for Tanga, Mtwara and Lindi Regions, and are under preparation for about six other Regions. The Dodoma WMP was prepared as a model by a special task force from the Ministry; all other WMP have been prepared by consultants, whose methodology is standardized and coordinated by the Ministry. The same procedure would be followed for Tabora Region with the addition that the consultant would coordinate the investigation time schedule with the needs of the water supply component. This would require a start with hydrogeological investigations in the most populated and geologically complicated areas mostly in Nzega, Igunga and Urambo districts where investigations would have to be coordinated with the findings of the neighboring Shinyanga study. The investigation program for selected villages would concentrate in the first instance on the feasibility of the installation of shallow wells i.e. on the availability of shallow groundwater and only when this fails, the investigation would be extended to other alternatives. The hydrogeological investigations in the rest of the Region would follow only after the requirements of the component are satisfied.

23. In Tabora Region, the hydrological part of the WMP dealing with surface water would be simpler than in other Regions, because the catchment area of Lake Tanganyika, covering more than a half of the Tabora Region, has been studied already by a NORAD team which has established gauging stations throughout the basin. However, investigation of the remaining part of the Region, belonging to the catchment area of Lake Eyasi, would be investigated as a matter of priority as it includes Igunga and Nzega Districts. As in other Regions, Government would make drilling rigs with auxiliary equipment available for the consultants' investigation work. The consultant would operate the rigs and supply drilling teams.

Design of water supplies

24. Additional professional staff would be assigned to the existing Planning and Project Preparation Division of RWE (para. 15). The present capacity of the division, consisting of one executive engineer, two senior technicians, four surveyors and a number of junior technicians and draftsmen would be extended by:

2 sanitary engineers 4 surveyors

1 laboratory assistant 6 draftsmen estimators

4 technicians

The equipment needed in connection with this manpower increase would include 8 four-wheel drive pick-ups; survey equipment; a soil laboratory; field equipment including tents, water filters, and tools; office furniture; drawing boards; a copy machine; drawing tools; and small office equipment. ANNEX 4 Page 9

Constructionof Water Supplies

25. The RWD constructioncapacity is geared to the drilling of boreholes, erection of small concrete or steel reservoirs, constructionof small dams and open reservoirs, laying pipelines, constructionof small pumphouses and installationof pumps and engines, but only to a small extent to the constructionof shallow wells.

26. For the constructionstage, the ConstructionDivision (para. 15) would be strengthenedby:

1 constructionengineer, 2 building foremen,

2 technicians, 2 drilling foremen,

2 water supply foremen, 4 draftsmen

2 well sinkers,

Additional transport and plant for shallow well constructionwould be provided, comprising:

10 four-wheel drive pick-ups, 1 concrete plant with moulds,

10 trucks (10-15 tons), mechanical workshop with tools,

2 truck cranes, an Auger-type drilling rig, mounted on a tractor or four-wheel-drive 4 tractors with trailers, vehicle.

Operation of water supplies

27. During the first phases of implementation,the RWE would estimate the required future operationalcapacity and make proposals for provision of finance, manpower and equipment. In analysing the financial implications, the RWE would study the impact of payment of part of the cost by villages and make proposals to the RDD for imposing charges. A detailed program for training manpower needed to maintain sub-projectand other facilitieswould be drawn up by the end of 1977.

28. Preparationof a full water supply program calls for extensive investigation and engineering. As no such plan would be available until about the second year of the project, the water component cost and impact has to be estimated from available informationabout both water availabilityand the existing village water supply status. The populationsshown as being served by the differentwater sources in Appendix 4 are, therefore, indicativeonly. On this tentativebasis, it is estimated that about US$4.2 million would be sufficient for the design and provision of an adequate water supply to the 75-100 villages. ANNEX 4 Page 10

29, A coneideabie part (23%) of the total water component is allocated to the investigation of natural water resources in the Region and preparation of the regional WMP. The extent of the investigation undertaken for the WMP study is much in excess of the needs of the construction program envisaged within this Project, but is a pre-requisite for post-Project investment in more elaborate water schemes.

30. Total construction cost for the water supply component would be about US$3.9 million of which US$1.8 million (48%) is foreign cost. The ongoing Regional water supply development program for the next five years, for which the estimated budget is TSh 2.0 million (US$0.24 million) annually is included in the component. Details of the total cost estimates are given in Annex 10, Table 5. The unit construction costs by type of facility for the water supply component are detailed in Appendix 4 to this Annex.

Operating Costs of Water Supplies

31. Existing rural water supplies are operated and maintained by RWE, who charges these activities against his annual recurrent allocation from the central budget. Amounts available for the operation of water supply in Tabora Region, as in the country as a whole, have been, for the past few years, considerably smaller than needed. As a result, the technical level of operations is very low, preventive maintenance is non-existent, and water supplies often do not operate because of lack of funds for repairs or for the purchase of fuel for the operation of pumps. The allocations usually have been at the level of about TSh 2.0 per year per supplied person, compared with an estimated need for adequate operations of about TSh 8.0 to 10.0 (Appendix 5).

32. Given the country's economic situation, there is little hope that future budget allocations will increase to the required level: it will therefore be necessary for villages to meet a larger part of recurrent costs of water supplies. The precise manner in which the anticipated cost may be recovered could vary with the type of water system and proposals acceptable to the regional, district and ward authorities would need to be developed within the framework of the Village Act, 1975. The principle of recovering running costs from water users and the level of contributions to be made by villagers is an issue on which early policy statements are expected.

Time Schedule

33. The pr.gram for water supply development would span the Project period of 5 years. In the first year, design work and material procurement would be undertaken for the sub-project, and a start made on the Water Master Plan. The only construction taking place would be the ongoing Regional program. Construction of shallow wells under the sub-project would proceed as soon as materials became available and more complex construction would be started in year 3 as soon as materials and equipment had been procured. An implementation schedule is shown in Appendix 6. ANNEX 4 Page 11

Impact of Water Sector

34. The water supply component is estimated to supply an additional 140,000-160,000persons by 1982. It would bring the percentage of rural population supplied with water in the Tabora region to over 35% by 1982, when the new installationsare finished. This would be well above the nation's average, but some indicationof the size of the problem is that even this effect will fail to keep up with anticipated population growth -- there were about 490,000 villagers without adequate water supply in 1975, but after the water supply component is implemented,that number would have increased to about 500,000 persons (Appendix7). The development of water supplies in the 1980's and beyond obviouslywill depend on the financial situation of Tanzania, and budget allocations for rural water supply. However, it is estimated that in order simply to keep pace with the growth of Tabora Region population, some TSh 10.0 to 12.0 million would be needed annually for water supply development (Appendix8), and if less funds are available for water supply development,the number of people without access to a water supply would continue to increase. ANNEX 4 Appendix 1 Page

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Population Projections, Tabora Region

1. The population count for Tabora Region in August 1967 was 562,871. Since 1967 the boundaries of Tabora region have been redefined and now exclude Mpanda district with a 1967 count of 60,803. The two then remaining Districts of the Region, Tabora and Nzega had 200,051 and 302,017 people respectively. A next count in Tabora Region (with new boundaries), taken by regional authorities in late 1973 recorded the total population as 693,193 with Tabora District having 292,135 persons and Nzega District 401,058 persons.

2. The recorded population growth rate for Tabora and Nzega Districts combined was 3.1% (1957-67). Between 1967 and 1973, the population growth rate was 5.1%; however, this included an influx of some 45,000 or more refugees from neighboring countries. If the impact of these refugees is excluded, the population growth rate between 1967 and 1973 was 4.0%, which was considerably higher than the 2.7% rate used in projections for the same period by the Central Statistical Bureau.

3. The major increase of population in this period has been experienced in the already well populated areas. The eastern and southern areas with low population have shown only moderate if not negative growth rates. The following tabulation documents the population growth (1967-73) and population density (1975) by Divisions of the former Districts:

Population Population Growth Density Growth Density Tabora District 3.3% 4.7 Nzega District 4.5% 29.2

Ulyankulu 3.0 9.2 Igunga 6.6 41.2 Urambo 3.0 3.6 Nyasa 2.8 44.1 Lolangulu 6.7 13.1 Itobo 3.2 29.3 Uyui 5.3 13.1 Simbo 3.5 14.0 Sikonge 1.6 2.1 2 Kitunda 0.3 0.7 Note: Density:persons per Km Igalula 1.0 1.4

4. The recent growth rate of 4.0% is more the result of significant in-migration and high population mobility than that of higher than national average fertility. Under the same circumstances a continued growth rate of 4.0% could be anticipated for the future. However, it is considered that the village resettlement program will have a fundamental impact on the life style of the rural population. The intensification of agriculture and the provision of social services is likely to have a stabilizing ANNEX 4 Appendix I Page 2 effect on the population. In the projections, the future growth rate is slightly above the national average, recognizing some migration but not on the scale that has occurred in the past. The average annual growth rate for the Region is 3.1% for 1975-80 and 3.2% for 1980-90, with dif- ferentiating rates applying to each of the four Districts organized in 1975. TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

1PopulationProjections By DistrictsIn Tabora Region

1973 1975 1980 1985 1990

______o_ po ation pmtion = o ao Popu lation Population

-- Trntq I - Riroxl Tn o.R I Riiral Tnta_ RIIXpral Tabora 188,ogo 140,800 200,166 155,032 233,766 176,202 273,726 207,482 321,270 244,526

Jrambo 104,045 99,365 128,030 123,018 152,055 146,104 170,590 165,501 214,479 206,062

Nzega 239,173 228,862 253,953 244,608 295,509 284,416 343,391 331,432 401,957 386,862

Igunga 161,885 161,025 170,676 169,818 195 ,590 195,590 226,o44 224,881 262,033 259,997

TOTAL 693,193 630,052 752,825 692,476 8T7,2T9 802,312 1,013,751 929,296 1,199,739 1,097,447

Source: BROKONSULT/AB: A feasibility study of the development potential and feeder road improvements in the Tabora Region (1975). Distribution for four districts: Bank staff estimates c Id L.

4- TANZANIA TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT-WATER SUPPLY COMPONENTS REGIONAL WATER DEPARTMENT TABORA-ORGANIZATION CHART

Regional Water Enginleer

Finance and | l Planning and l l Operat;Mntance C onstruction Reseach and D\vison l l ~~~~ProjectPreparat MagDlisnt 'ucDvsin Tra ning

e Dmivision | Daiviing Dvision atrSpl Divisiougng Administrati D~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~inistrioWnr nlyi andRegistry t l Office l 1 Ma~~~~~Reiotnalc| onstructfon iningors

j l Stores j Surveying and l 2 Ma ntenWorkshop Construction Core

1 lSection q Investigatiorl lL Operatint of IsectrathMovingord

1 Unitl 1 Estimates l 1 DnvWaSupleer r Pepamain|T eod

Regional~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~r~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Account Designs H ad, af L Raml."~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~r Drawing Structures |_ Drilling X Equipmentt 1 Maintenance Team

S2urceRWE Tabora H Oealn WorldnBank-itB5Bt ANNEX 4 Appendix 3 Page 1

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Water Master Plan

Draft Terms of Reference

1. Objective

The objective of the survey is to provide the Government of Tanzania with firm recommendations for the immediate and long-term (20 years) development of the water resources of Tabora Region, with particular reference to the supply of water to villages for human and stock use. As a matter of urgency least-cost sources are to be identified to serve a number of villages which have already been selected. The area to be covered will comprise the entire Tabora Region.

2. Scope of Work

(a) To collect and study all existing maps and aerial photographs, hydrological and geological data, information and records.

(b) To study the distribution and rate of growth of the population and livestock of the Region, paying particular attention to the newly established villages, their location and plans for their development; to develop in collaboration with the Government a schedule of the domestic and livestock water requirements, both immediate and long-term in the Region.

(c) To survey and assess all existing water supply installations in the Region, to study and evaluate in outline all existing projects concerning the exploitation of water.

(d) Having regard to the findings under (b) and (c) above, to identify sources and prepare a brief outline for the development of the priority projects, and make recommendations for their further implementation, and most effective incorporation in a Regional development plan. Special emphasis is to be given to any water supply requirements of the Tabora Rural Development Project.

(e) To perform geological and hydrogeological studies in the area sufficient to estimate the amount and quality of the groundwater in different hydrogeological areas, and to prepare a proposal and recommendations for the methodology and procedure to be used in detailed groundwater investigations. ANNEX 4 Appendix 3 Page 2

(f) To evaluate the availablehydrological and meteorological informationand estimate the surface water resources on the basis of this material; to prepare an extension plan for the observationnetworks, and organize its implementationin order to acquire data for an inventoryof the surface water resources; to make preliminarystudies of discharge in different conditions;to train personnel to the extent necessary to continue the study activities.

(g) To carry out detailed surveys and investigationsas necessary and to prepare plans, designs, and cost estimates for the priority projects referred to in (d) above, as agreed with the Government. To recommend methods and procedures for constructionof the works.

(h) To study and report in brief outline the possibilitiesof other projects for water shortage and utilization in the Re- gion, including irrigation and swamp reclamation.

(i) To provide a phased rural water supply developmentplan for the Region with timings and financingplan for each phase, and a summary of the study results.

3. Reports

(a) Quarterly Progress Reports will be presented simultaneouslyto the Ministry of Water, Energy and Minerals (Maji) and to the ProjetctManagement, giving an account of the activities during the preceding three months, and will propose any necessary adjustments to the Plan of Operation.

(b) Interim Report. This report will similarlybe presented 12 months after the work has begun. It will give the results of the study of the economic, social and administrativeconditions in the area and of the geological and hydrogeologicalstudies. Recommendations should be made for appropriatedesign criteria for the quality of water, and for the dimensioningof project elements, and also the basis of determining priorities. An adjusted Plan of Operation for the rest of the work period should be attached to the report.

(c) Draft of the Water Master Plan. The draft is to be presented to Maji and the Project 18 months after the work has begun. It will include the adjusted and supplementedstudy results discussed in the interim report. It will also include proposals for water supply projects and their cost estimates, an implementation plan in stages, with alternatives. The draft will make an appreciationof the factors influencingimplementation, such as costs, availabilityof trained supervisionand skilled labor, constructionorganization and legal matters. ANNEX4 Appendix 3 Page 3

4. The Water Master Plan

When the Government of Tanzania and the Regional and Project authoritieshave commented on the draft and decided between the different alternatives,the Water Master Plan will be prepared. It will include the development program of the water resources in stages and will present all essential data acquired during the studies, including the inventory of ground and surface water resources. TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Village Population to be Supplied with Water, 1977-82* and Unit Costs

Population in Thousands Cost Estimates in 1976 Prices Type of Water Supply Installation (1975-80) Shallow Well Borehole Dam Other Cost Village Popu- Popu- Popu- Popu- To- Population lation Cost lation Cost lation Cost lation Cost tal Per Served with Served Mil- Served Mil- Served Mil- Served Mil- Mil- Per- Water SUDV1Y lion lion lion lion lion son District 1977 1982 No. T Sh _ _ No. T Sh No. T Sh No. T Sh T Sh T Sh

Tabo¶ra 46.0 79.0 20.0 100 1.80 8.0 4 1.60 5.0 2 2.75 - - - 6.15 186 Urambo 47.0 64.0 10.0 50 1.00 6,0 3 1.2 - - - 1.0 1 0.30 2.50 147 Nzega 43.0 121.0 54.0 270 4.90 14.0 7 2.80 10.0 1 5.50 - - - 13.20 169 Igunga 23.0 52,0 10,0 50 1.00 4.0 2 1.0 15.0 2 8.25 10.25 354

Total 159.0 316.0 94.0 470 8.70 32,0 16 6.6 30.0 5 16.5 1.0 1 0.30 32.10 205 . , _ = __=_ _ = .=

Total Funds which would be made available for the constructionof rural water supplies in the period 1977-82 are:

(a) Water supply component T Sh 22.1 million

(b) Allocation from Government developmentbudget (estimatedT Sh 2.0 million yearly) T Sh 10.0 million

Total T Sh 32.1 million

SOURCE: Bank Staff Estimates 4 TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Village Waer Supplies - Estimate of Annual Operation and Maintenance Expenses

Cost Estimates in 1976 Prices

Type of Water Supply Installation Shallow Well Borehole Dam Other Cost Cost Cost Cost Expenses Served per Served per Served per Served per Per 1000 Per- Cost 1000 Per- Cost 1000 Per- Cost 1000 Per- Cost Total Per- Per- son 1000 Per- son 1000 Per- son 1000 Per- son 1000 1000 son Tabora Region sons TSh T Sh sons T Sh T Sh sons T Sh T Sh sons T Sh T Sh T Sh T Sh

Served in 1977 159,000 persons 27.0 3 81.0 35.5 8 284.0 59.0 12 708.0 37.5 10 375.0 1,448.0 9.10 Increase 1977-82 157,000 persons 94.0 3 282.0 32.0 8 256.0 30.0 12 360.0 1.0 10 10.0 908.0 5.78 Total 1982 316,000 persons 121.0 3 363.0 67.5 8 540.0 89.0 12 1,068.0 38.5 10 385.0 2,356.0 7.45

Increase 1982-90 333,000 persons 115.0 3 345.0 65.0 8 520.0 133.0 12 1,596.0 20.0 10 200.0 2,661.0 7.99 Total 1990 649,000 persons 236.0 3 708.0 132.5 8 1,060.0 222.0 12 2,664.0 58.5 10 585.0 5,017.0 7.73

NOTE: The unit costs represent the amounts required for the full year water systems operation, maintenance, repair and replacement adequate to reasonable professional standards.

SOURCE: MWEN and Bank Staff Estimates TANZANIA

TABORARURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Tentative Time Schedule for Water Supply Component

Activity 1976/77 1977/78 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82

evalua- consultant tion investigation and Water Master Plan Belection report

design Water Supplies: planning and Planning and Design tendering

Water Supplies: material and Material and Equipment equipment on Procurement delivery

Water Supplies: ongoing construction of construction of Construction and construction shallow wells designed schemes Equipment Installation and improvement

SOURCE: Bank Staff Estimates ___ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~m3 m TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Tabora: Projection of Village Population without Water Supply

Population in Thousands 1975 1980 1990 In Villages In Villages In Villages Without Without Without Water Water T 1 Water District Total Rural Total Water Total Rural Total Water Total Rural Total S Total % Total x Total %

Tabora 200.17 155.03 151.73 111.0 73 233.77 176.20 172.0 110.0 64 321.27 244.53 240.0 105.0 44 Urambo 128.03 123.02 112.54 71.0 63 152.06 146.10 135.0 83.0 61 214.48 206.06 192.0 80.0 42 Nzega 253.95 244.61 229.92 192.0 83 295.50 284.40 275.0 190.0 69 401.96 386.86 375.0 180.0 48 Igunga 170.67 169.82 136.63 119.0 86 195.95 195.60 178.0 137.0 77 262.03 260.00 235.0 104.0 44

Total 752.82 692.48 636.82 493.0 77 877.28 802.30 760.0 520.0 68 1,199.74 1,097.45 1,042.0 469.0 45

NOTE: The assumption that 45% of population in 1990 will not get water from water supplies is based on the idea that the funds for the construction will be limited but, at the same time, the number of persons not supplied in 1980 should be maintained or decreased.

SOURCE: Bank Staff Estimates

14 TANZANIA

TABORARURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Tabora: Estimate of Capital Cost for Rural Water Supplies in Period 1980-1990 (Assumption of 55% of Village Population Supplied with Water)

Population in Thousands Cost Estimates in 1976 Prices

Village Type of Water Installation (1980-90) Population Shallow Well Borehole Dam Other Cost Served with Cost Cost Cost Cost Total Per Water Supply Popu- Mil- Popu- Mil- Popu- Mil- Popu- Mil- Mil- Per- 1990 lation lion lation lion lation lion lation lion lion son District 1980 Total % Served No. T Sh Served No. T Sh Served No. T Sh Served No. T Sh T Sh T Sh

Tabora 62.0 135.0 56 20.0 200 3.5 20.0 14 5.5 33.0 - 16.5 - - - 25.5 350

Urambo 52.0 112.0 58 30.0 300 5.5 10.0 7 3.0 10.0 - 5.0 10.0 - 5.5 19.0 310

Nzega 85.0 195.0 52 60.0 600 11.0 30.0 20 8.0 20.0 - 10.0 - - 29.0 260

Igunga 41.0 131.0 56 5.0 50 1.0 5.0 4 1.5 70.0 - 35.0 10.0 - 5.5 43.0 480

Total 240.0 573.0 55 115.0 1,115 21.0 65.0 45 18.0 133.0 - 66.5 20.0 11.0 116.5 350 _ . = = _ ~ ~~ = -_

SOURCE: Bank Staff Estimates 1|

coo

ANNEX 5

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Roads Component

A. Road Transport Requirements ...... Para. 1

B. Present Road Conditions ...... Para. 6 The Road Network ...... Para. 7 Traffic ...... Para. 9 Road Maintenance Organization ...... Para. 13

C. Project Approach ...... ara. 16 Technical Assistance ...... Para. 17 Organization Proposed ...... Para. 20 Road Maintenance ...... Para. 21 Road Improvement ...... Para. 28 Network Road Betterment ...... Para. 29 Access Road Sub-component ...... Para. 33

D. Economic Evaluation ...... Para. 36 Benefits ...... Para. 36 Distribution of Benefits ...... Para. 40

E. Costs and Implementation ...... Para. 46

Appendix 1: Tabora Region: Organization of Road Services, and Road Conditions. Chart WB 16309: Tabora Region Roads Organization, 1975. Table 1: Comworks Personnel and Equipment Resources, 1975 Table 2: Road Maintenance and Improvement Budget Table 3: Network Road Condition Table 4: Access Roads Condition

Appendix 2: Draft Terms of Reference for Technical Cooperation Personnel For Road Maintenance & Improvement

Appendix 3: Road Component Local Staff and Equipment Cost

Appendix 4: Road Design Standard Figures: Roadway Cross Sections

Appendix 5: Road Maintenance and Betterment Capacities

Appendix 6: Road Betterment Unit Development Table 1: Provisional List of Priorities for Betterment Work Table 2: Access Roads Unit: Typical Deployment

Appendix 7: Roads Component: Benefits

Appendix 8: Roads Component Implementation Schedule

ANNEX 5 Page 1

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Roads Component 1/

A. Road Transport Requirements

1. An efficient road network is essential to Tanzania which relies on roads to connect its widely scattered rural population with markets, health and education facilities, and other Government services. Despite the Government's efforts over the past decade to upgrade the network, only about 10% of the roads provide reliable, all weather service; most are little more than earth tracks, impassable during the rainy season. Proper maintenance of the network is essential if access to rural areas is to be assured and previous investments are to be safeguarded.

2. Since 1970, when the then Ministry of Communications and Works (Comworks) took over responsibility for a large number of inadequately maintained rural roads, maintenance of the entire network has deteriorated. In 1971, the Government commissioned a highway maintenance and organization study (USAID-financed) which made recommendations on equipment, staffing and organization designed to restore maintenance of the network to an adequate level.

3. A major requirement for roads in Tabora Region is to support agricultural production. Although most produce exported from the Region moves by rail, the road network is the fundamental means of transport within the Region. Adequate roads are needed to assure the efficient evacuation of crops to market centers and railheads, and to support timely delivery of agricultural inputs to the villages.

1/ NOTE: This Annex was prepared following the IDA appraisal mission. It sets out a feasible approach to improving network and access roads in Tabora Region. It does not, however, attempt to lay down a program for either maintenance or reconstruction, and although such a program (comprising a reasonable mix of these activities and consistent with the equipment to be financed) has been assumed for the calculation of benefits, this is not proposed as binding. The nature of the actual work schedule will be decided in consultation with the relevant Regional authorities and Project management by the Tech- nical Cooperation team provided under the United Kingdom Overseas Development Programme from which this component is to be financed. The cost estimates are based on UK procurement. ANTEX 5 Page 2

4. In addition to this role, roads in Tabora Region must also support administrative communications, social services, and general commerce. Effi- cient road links between Regional, District, and Ward headquarters are crucial in the implementation of Government programs. People must be linked with social services not necessarily available on the village level -- secondary schools, hospitals, rural training centers, etc. Finally, general goods trade and distribution of local manufactures relies on dependable road transport.

5. The present road network in Tabora does not meet these basic requirements. Proposed improvements are based on a two-pronged approach to strengthen routine maintenance and to reconstruct bad spots. Improvements in maintenance will be brought about through technical and managerial assistance, training, and provision of workshop equipment. Road reconstruction will be carried out with labor-intensive betterment units to improve village access roads to all-season standard, supported by a capital-intensive betterment unit which will reconstruct sections of network roads. Equipment will be interchangeable between the units according to season and priority needs.

B. Present Road Conditions

6. There are two major problems with the road network in Tabora Region:

(a) Several network roads 1/ and many village access roads 2/ are impassable at various times during the rainy season (which extends from November through April), due to inadequate drainage, poor road construction materials and poor maintenance.

(b) The existing surfaces of most roads are so rough, due to deficient maintenance, that much potential traffic is discouraged and that all actual traffic is faced with extremely high vehicle operating costs.

The Road Network

7. There are presently some 2,300 km of network roads in Tabora Region. These generally radiate outward from Tabora Town, the most important roads being the links north to Nzega and west to Kaliua. The road network is densest in Nzega and Igunga Districts, where population

1/ Network roads are defined as trunk roads, regional roads, local main roads, and district roads. These are generally roads connecting towns and larger villages in the Region.

2/ An access road is defined as the road or track leading from a network road to a specific village. These roads can be identified with single, or at most, two to three villages; there is usually only one access road per village. ANNEX 5 Page 3 density is highest. The network roads are mainly of 7.0 meter and 4.0 meter widths. They vary in condition from gravel (murram) roads to poorly- drained earth or sand tracks. The extent of these network roads is illustrated in Map IBRD 12307.

8. Village access roads in Tabora Region, totaling about 1,320 km in length, were identifiedby consultantsas linking (in 1974) some 327 villages with network roads. These access roads vary in length up to about 10 km, with an average of 4 km; they are mainly non-engineered earth tracks. Of the village surveyed, some 63% (approximately75,000 rural families) did not enjoy all-season access. Village access roads are also identified in Map, IBRD 12307.

Traffic

9. Road traffic in Tabora Region is predominantly local, rather than through-traffic. Traffic counts in July 1974 1/ establishedthat on the Singida-Shinyangatrunk road passing through Nzega, through traffic amounted to about 35% of total traffic. On the other roads in Tabora Region, however, through traffic is much lower due to the poor condition of roads leading to other regions. In Tabora and Urambo Dis- tricts, local (intra-regional)traffic amounted to more than 99.9% of total traffic.

10. The vehicle mix is constant throughout the Region: light vehicles (mostly Land Rovers and vans), 42%; trucks, 34%; and buses, 24%. The average vehicle capacities are 5 seats per light vehicle, 7.6 tons per truck, and 63 seats per bus. The purpose of trips is 81% governmentbusiness and 19% commercial for light vehicles; and 81% commercial and 19% government business for trucks. These data are reflected in the ownership of vehicles:

Owner Private Driver Company Cooperative Government

Light vehicles 10% 15% 9% 75%

Trucks 40% 29% 12% 19%

11. Traffic levels range from 106 vehicles per day (during the 1974 dry season) on the Tabora-Nzegaroad, to 49 between Tabora and Tumbi, 44 from Tabora to Sikonge, and 21 on the road to Ulyankulu.

1/ Unless otherwise stated, all data in this section are taken from BROKONSULTA/B, A Feasibility Study of the Development Potential and Feeder Road Improvements in the Tabora Region, Appendix 3: Traffic and Engineering, 1975. ANNEX 5 Page 4

Many of the network roads carry traffic volumes as low as 20 vehicles per day; village access roads are even more lightly traveled, but no traffic counts are available.

12. Traffic growth rates are not available for Tabora Region, as no reliable data exist for either agricultural production or vehicle registrations. On a national basis, the following are annual growth rates for the vehicle fleet (%):

1966-70 1970-72

Light vehicles 9.4 2.1 Trucks 10.8 4.6 Buses 10.3 4.6

The recent decline in growth of vehicle registrations reflects the re- strictions of Tanzania's import controls, and may not be indicative of future traffic growth.

Road Maintenance Organization

13. Road maintenance in Tabora Region is presently carried out by the four Districts, under the supervision of the Regional Engineer. The Central Ministry of Works (Comworks) in Dar es Salaam is financially responsible for trunk road maintenance and improvement, but this responsibility is delegated to the Region by means of a grant of funds per kilometer of trunk road. The maintenance and improvement of all roads in the Region is thus carried out by the Region itself.

14. The present organization for road maintenance and improvement in Tabora Region is shown in Appendix 1, Chart WB 16309 and the present road personnel and equipment available in the Region are listed in Appendix 1, Table 1 which shows both the shortage of qualified staff and the totally inadequate inventory of equipment. In the past several years, staff at all levels have been reduced by budget cuts which are shown in Appendix 1, Table 2. Cutbacks in road expenditures have hastened road deterioration in Tabora Region. No new road maintenance equipment has been added in recent years (the two motorgraders currently operating in the Region are both 15-20 years old); spare parts inventories in the Nzega and Tabora workshops are enough only for the most routine repair needs but engines sent to the Morogoro workshop may take months to be serviced, if they are returned at all. At present, only 60% of network roads receive any maintenance, and due to the lack of equipment and trained personnel, much of this is largely ineffective.

15. Training has been inadequate and most Tabora roads personnel are underqualified for their positions. The Tabora Region Comworks organization does not include a single graduate engineer; while even ANNEX 5 Page 5 more serious is the lack of properly trained techniciansand supervisory personnel. This situationmay be improved as graduates become available from either the Dar es Salaam Technical College or the Comworks Morogoro Training Center.

C. Project Approach

16. The basic strategy proposed to counter the trend of road deterioration in Tabora is to make available to the Region an infusion of technical assistance and road equipment sufficient to meet present maintenance commitmentswith capacity also for essential betterment works. Technical assistancewill be provided to support (a) the planning and implementationof a road maintenance and improvement program, (b) the training of counterpart staff, and (c) the strengtheningof maintenance equipment workshops. Road maintenance equipmentwill be provided to enable (a) blading, regraveling, and reconstructionof critical stretches of network roads, (b) provision of and maintenance of all-season road access to all villages in the Region, and (c) improved road maintenance supported by adequate equipment repair shops and soils testing facilities. The following section discusses the forms of technical assistanceto be provided; next the approach to strengtheningroad maintenance is presented;and finally the betterment unit concept for improvement of network and access roads is described.

Technical Assistance

17. Personnel. To assure the successful implementationof the road component,technical assistancewill be required. Draft terms of reference for these personnel are presented in Appendix 2; their positions and functions are briefly as follows:

(a) Roads Engineer. An experienced engineer who will assist the Regional Engineer and take overall responsibilityfor the roads component, including direction of procurement,road maintenance planning, and bettermentunit deployment.

(b) Accountant. To supervise accountingwithin the component and to set up and operate a system of unit cost accounting for works control.

(c) Workshop Mechanic. An experienced shop mechanic who will assist the Regional Engineer in properly organizing, refitting, and directing the road equipment workshop activities.

(d) Two Roads Inspectors. Initially to direct the operations of the betterment units, and train counterpartsin the techniquesof road constructionmanagement. ANNEX 5 Page 6

(e) Field Mechanic. An experienced heavy equipment mechanic who will direct repair operations in the field.

18. Training. Recruiting and training suitable counterpart supervisory and technical personnel is crucial to continuation of the component. There are three ways of obtaining these personnel: (a) Ministry of Works, Dar es Salaam, can provide trained people; (b) Tabora can supply suitable candidates to the Ministry of Works for training, either in Dar es Salaam or at Morogoro; or (c) the project technical assistance staff in Tabora can train the required personnel on the job. At present, method (c) must be relied upon to a great extent, and this points out the importance of the training role required of the technical assistance specialists.

19. On-the-job-training carried out by technical assistance personnel in Tabora will focus upon the following major training areas:

(a) Engineering Management. Planning and execution of effective road maintenance programs and the organization of road betterment units.

(b) Workshop Management. Practical aspects of organizing and operating a mechanical workshop.

(d) Construction Unit Supervision. Planning, organizing, technical, and supervisory aspects of directing road reconstruction work. This training will be carried out in the field, specializing in either labor-intensive or equipment-intensive operations.

(e) Field Maintenance. Field training with the goal of assuring continuous operation of road construction equipment.

Organization Proposed

20. Maintenance Organization and Planning. Under the control of the Regional Engineer, road works in Tabora Region would be divided into network road and access road sections. The network road section will be charged with the planning and supervision of routine network road maintenance and reconstruction of bad spots. The execution of network road work will be carried out under the responsibility of the District Engineers, as at present. Access roads will be constructed by labor- intensive methods with the assistance of three Access Road units organized under the Village access road section. Chart WB 16562 in Appendix 9 illustrates the proposed roads organization for Tabora Region. ANNEX 5 Page 7

Road Maintenance

21. Maintenance Organization and Planning. For the maintenance task, lack of adequate maintenance equipment and personnel and, perhaps most serious, lack of sufficient managerial capability and maintenance planning are the chief problems. A major technical assistance effort will be required to strengthen maintenance management. Given that the Project will also improve the equipment available, it is essential that workable maintenance schedules be developed, and maintenance planned on a Regional basis by the maintenance section. Execution of routine network road maintenance activities will then be carried out by each District, within the framework of a regional plan, which will enable efficient allocation of scarce equipment, and ensure uniform maintenance standards in Tabora Region.

22. Maintenance of village access roads will be carried out differently. Once an access road has been reconstructed, the village itself will be responsible for its maintenance. Instruction in routine maintenance techniques will be provided by the betterment unit, and each village will be provided, every six years, with a set of tools, including wheelbarrows, earth pans, shoveis, and compacting rammers. Additional blading of village access roads will be carried out, when possible, by graders, but primary responsibility for routine maintenance of these roads would rest with the villagers themselves, organized by the Village Council exercising its powers under the Villages and Ujamaa Villages Act of 1975.

23. Maintenance Equipment. The equipment provided under the Project, and the existing construction and maintenance equipment would be used interchangeably, for both maintenance and reconstruction. The Roads Engineer would be permitted some flexibility in determining the final mix of equipment to purchase, depending upon priorities at the time.

24. The principal mechanical operations associated with maintenance will be grading, mainly at the end of the wet season, and brushing. Other routine maintenance operations are: clearing alongside the road, filling potholes, and repairing bridges and culverts -- work better done manually.

25. Equipment Workshops. Presently, there is a rather extensive equipment yard and workshop complex in Tabora and a smaller one in Nzega. The existing facilities are of poor quality, however, and appear to be inefficiently managed. Due to lack of skills and equipment, certain repair jobs which should be accomplished in Tabora are sent to the Morogoro Work- shop, with a resulting penalty of equipment downtime running into several months. Inadequate road equipment maintenance and repair appears to be a major factor contributing to the overall deterioration of the road network.

26. The upgrading of the Tabora and Nzega Workshops will be carried out under the guidance of the Workshop Mechanic. His task will be to reorganize workshop operations in an efficient manner; to establish routine ANNEX 5 Page 8 procedures; to provide necessary training; and to specify and procure necessary workshop equipment. Each workshop would have a range of boring, welding and training equipment; however, the Workshop Mechanic in consultation with the Roads Engineer will have considerable latitude in specifying the final equipment list, based upon a careful inventory of existing equipment and an estimate of the types of repairs which can practically be carried out in Tabora and Nzega.

27. Soils Testing. Simple equipment for performing basic soils tests will be financed under the project. At present, all soil samples must be sent to Dar es Salaam for analysis, which often results in very lengthy delays. Given the road standards contemplated here, basic soil information should be available in a timely fashion. This can be supplemented, if necessary, by more detailed analyses from Dar es Salaam.

Road Improvement

28. Road improvement or betterment consists of reconstructing sections of existing roads which are currently unmaintainable and largely impassable during the wet season. Improvement is thus an essential part of road maintenance, and is required to transform the Tabora road network into an all-weather system. It is expected that this program will have a si-nificant effect on improving communications in the Region, and will pro.;idebasic all-season access to the 63% of villages presently isolatod during the rainy season. The technology, staffing and operational requirements for network road betterment and access road betterment differ, and are, therefore, treated separately below.

29. Network Road Betterment

(a) Technology. A capital-intensive rc.d bettermert unit is proposed to carry out the required improvements on network roads in Tabora Region. The size and composition of this unit, would be based on experience with similar units in other Regions of Tanzania, and is also a function of the indivisibility of equipment, in that a certain minimum unit is required to permit the proper balance between various items of equipment. The alternative of employing a labor-intensive technology is not attractive for this particular task for several reasons. First, it would be more difficult to obtain the required labor for network roads, which do not run directly to most villages, than for access roads. Second, the relatively high minimum wage in Tanzania (US$1.80 per day) and the required night-out allowance (US$1.90 per day) which would have to be paid if labor could not be obtained locally, make labor-intensive methods noncompetitive with machine- intensive techniques. Finally, the cost and administrative difficulty of housing, feeding, and moving such a large workforce makes extensive use of labor less attractive for improvement of network roads than in the case of access roads. ANNEX 5 Page 9

(b) Personnel. The Network Road BettermentUnit would consist of supervisors,equipment operators to handle the heavy equipment, and laborers for clearing, grubbing, culvert and drainage work. The unit would be self-sufficient, travellingwith its own accommodation. Technical assistance would be provided in the field by a Roads Inspector, and the work would be under the general supervision of the Roads Engineer and the Regional Engineer.

(c) Organization. The position of the Network Roads Section within the Tabora Comworks organizationis shown in Annex 9, Chart WB 16562. The Officer-in-Chargeof the Unit will report directly to the Regional Engineer, since the Unit will serve all four Districts. The personnel within the Unit will be organized into teams for the execution of various tasks.

(d) Operation. The Network Road Betterment Unit has been designed to reconstructannually approximately 75 km of 4.0 meter width roads to a suitable gravel standard. 1/ This consists of excavatingmurram lateriticmaterial, hauling it to the road site, spreading and compacting the murram, and grading the surface. Since all work will be done on existing roads, where the horizontal alignment is generally satisfactory,bush clearance is not a major problem. Earthworkswill only be necessary in certain low areas where drainage is inadequate. The full capacity of the unit is not expected to be reached until after an initial year of operations,during which staff will be trained and procedures refined. Details of unit constructioncapacity assumptionsare given in Appendix 5.

30. Provisionalpriorities for Network Road Betterment are shown in Appendix 7: this would be modified in the light of changing Regional conditions. Timely procurement of equipment and technical personnel would be important to achieve effective operations. Workshop strengtheningparti- cularly must be accomplishedearly on to permit minimum downtime of road- building equipment.

31. The specific roads to be improved would be selected on the basis of economic considerations. Since there are over 2,000 km of network roads in Tabora (excludingtrunk roads), it is not feasible to direct the efforts of a single Betterment Unit toward improvementof every kilometer. Instead, the improvementprogram would be aimed at network road "bad spots," some

1/ Design standards are shown in Appendix 4. ANNEX 5 Page 10

560 km of which have been identified by :cnsultants (sca Appendix 1 Table 3). These bad spots are existing road segments which are either completely impassable or practically so during portion, 2ithc _-in; season (November to May). By concentrating on these bad spots, the limited capacity of the Betterment Unit will be employed to greatest advantage. It has been assumed that some 266 km of bad spots could be improved during the five-year Phase I period and the entire 394 km completed by year eight. Other network roads will also receive greater levels of maintenance since existing equipment will be better utilized.

32. A possible sequence of improvement activity has been set out in Appendix 6, Table 2. This sequence is based on (a) the relative priority indicated by the Consultants' economic rate of return for each road section, and (b) the need to minimize the travelling distance from one section to another. Based on these criteria, the schedule of operations begins by looping through Igunga and Nzega Districts, then proceeds eastward to Tura, southward to Rungwa, and westward to Ussinge. This schedule is illustrative; the engineer in charge may alter it in accordance with field conditions.

33. Access Road Sub-component

(a) Technology. In contrast to the network road betterment, access road work in Tabora lends itself to labor-intensive methods. Such a technology is well-suited to the task of the three Access Road Betterment Units, which is to improve village access roads to a standard permitting all- season transit. A simple technology is most appropriate. Because, first these roads are to be of low standard and support very low levels of traffic (less than 10 vehicles per day (vpd)); second, the modest 3.0-meter design standard and low traffic levels make simple construction techniques attractive; third, the village can supply labor during the dry season to work on its own access road (This labor input could be organized by the Village Council on a daily or weekly basis. Since access roads are short (usually less than 10 km long), there is no requirement for transportation or temporary housing and feeding). Responsibility for village access road maintenance has recently been delegated to the village itself as a matter of government policy and the Village Council given powers to encourage such communal activity. Under these conditions, it is economically and politically advantageous to utilize road betterment techniques based on a high labor input.

(b) Personnel. The personnel for each Access Road Betterment Unit would comprise foremen, equipment operators, mechanics and drivers. In addition, technical assistance, in the form of a Road Inspector, will be supplied to direct the access road betterment program. Planning and coordination of the work schedules for the three units will be carried out by the Road Engineer. ANNEX 5 Page 11

(c) Organization. One of the major findings of World Bank- sponsored research on labor-capital substitution in civil works projects has been that the quality of supervision and method of organization is critical in carrying out labor-intensive operations. 1/ For this reason, the main function of the 2 5-man permanent core of each unit will be to supervise and train village labor in techniques of road construction and maintenance. Access road foremen will supervise each major work component - earthwork; murram excavation, hauling, and spreading; and drainage and land clearing - and will train counterpart village-appointed headmen. These headmen will be responsible for routine maintenance of the village road after reconstruction is complete, and will be provided with appropriate tools. In addition, betterment unit staff will be provided in such specialty positions as survey assistant, culvert mason, and tractor driver so that the unit functions smoothly. Although each team of an Access Road Better- ment Unit will spend only between one and four weeks working on a given village road, the impetus provided by reconstruction of the road, training of village personnel, and provision of necessary tools is expected to result in improved levels of self-help village road maintenance by the villagers themselves.

(d) Operation. Each Access Road Betterment Unit is designed with an annual reconstruction capacity of about 32 km of village roads. These roads will be improved from their present dry-season, earth standard to an all-season 3.0 meter width gravel standard (see Appendix 4 for design standards). Villagers will do earthwork, murram excavation and spreading, drainage improvement and bush clearance by hand, under the supervision and guidance of the 25-man permanent team. The detailed organization of these operations is spelled out in Appendix 6, Mechanized equipment will be used only for hauling murram pit to the road side (generally less than 5 km) and for compaction. These operations will utilize agricultural tractors towing tipper trailers, water trailers, and compactors. This operation provides flexibility and low capital costs while taking advantage of the self-help village labor supply available during the dry season.

1/ Labor-Capital Substitution Study, IBRD Technical Memoranda, 1974 and 1975. ANNEX 5 Page 12

34. The access roads needing improvement are shown by ward in Appendix 1. There are some 413 km of bad spots (impassable during the rainy season) listed, spread among 206 villages presently without all-season access. It is estimated that each of the three units can improve 1.25 km of roads per week during the 26-week dry season -- a timing which will not interfere with village agricultural activities. The permanent team will be assigned to work on District roads (the lowest level of network roads) during the rainy season.

35. At this rate, with the first Access Road Betterment Unit commencing in year 2 and the two other Units starting in year 3, it has been assumed that some 272 km of bad spots would be reconstructed during the five-year Phase I period. This phasing would allow transfer of trained personnel from the first unit to the other two and would facilitate supervision by the Road Inspector. Since units are assumed to work at only half capacity during their first year of operation, the full 96 km annual capacity of the three units would not be reached until year 4. All access road bad spots currently identified within Tabora Region could be reconstructed by year 7. The allocation of betterment units within the Region would be determined by the Regional Engineer.

D. Economic Evaluation

Benefits

36. Benefits were calculated on the basis of the work program assumed above. The possible changes in the ratio of maintenance to reconstruction work, made in the light of experience, are unlikely to seriously alter the picture. For the analysis of network roads, benefits were calculated in terms of vehicle operating cost savings. These were computed on the basis of (a) improving the present bad spots to a normal gravel standard, and (b) incremental improvement from routine road maintenance. Only the normal growth of traffic has been considered, starting from detailed traffic counts carried out in Tabora Region in 1974. So-called "generated" traffic has not been included. This treatment of benefits is conservative and well-founded. Without these improvements, there would be little sense in upgrading the village access roads.

37. The treatment of village access road benefits is less traditional. The difficulty lies in quantifying the beneficial impact of all-season access upon village production and social structures. As no traffic counts are available at the village level in Tabora, the simple vehicle operating cost savings method cannot be applied. In any case, this method alone will not properly quantify the development benefits accruing to such a road investment.l/ All-season access to a village means that many productive, administrative, commercial, and social inputs can be supplied all through the year; and that

1/ See The Economic Analysis of Rural Road Projects by Carnemark, Biderman, and Bovet, (Staff Working Paper, 1976) for a thorough discussion of appropriate economic methodologies in the analysis of rural road projects. ANNEX 5 Page 13

farm output can be effectively marketed year-round. The resulting impact is just beginning to be studied and assessed in recent research programs. 1/

38. As a conservative approximation of the economic benefits flowing from improvement to all-season standard of village access roads, the following methodology has been applied:

(a) Vehicle operating cost savings. Based on marketed tonnage of agricultural goods, an estimate of transport cost savings is derived. This represents normal dry season transport savings due to improved road quality.

(b) Agricultural production benefits. The benefit due to assured year-round provision of agricultural inputs (see, fertilizers, etc) and extension advice is estimated at 2% of the net value of production. (Consultants have estimated this benefit as ranging from 20% (in the case of maize, paddy, groundnuts and cotton) to 30% (for tobacco) of net production value.) 2/ The village extension agent requires the support of outside extension agents during the wet season to ensure the effective use of inputs, and input delivery will typically continue throughout the year.

(c) Agricultural marketing benefits. The benefit due to decreased crop spoilage and increased quality of produce, made possible by reliable road access, is conservatively estimated as 1% of the net value of marketed production. (This compares to consultant's estimates of 20% of crop value in the case of tobacco, to 10% for paddy, to no savings for maize.) 3/ Over half the tobacco crop is picked during the rainy season, and quality (hence value) deteriorates sharply unless the crop is moved rapidly to re-drying centers. Paddy also suffers if it must be stored damp rather than transported to commercial centers.

39. This approach to analysis has the advantage of focusing on the important categories of benefits involved in a rural road project. The details of benefit computations are provided in Appendix 8. Although quantification of the agricultural production savings is not precise due to the lack of research data, the methodology is rational and estimates are intuitively reasonable. Social benefits, such as improved access to health facilities, schools, and administrative centers, also important, are not quantified. Analysis of village access roads is carried out for each of six agro-economic zones in Tabora Region: since village size and agricultural production are similar within each zone, this is an adequate means of assessing project benefits.

1/ See, as an example, Socio-Economic Impact Studies of Rural Access Roads, Ministry of Works, Kenya, 1975. 2/ Brokonsult AB Report, App. 4, p. 7. 3/ Brokonsult AB Report, App. 4, p. 10. ANNEX 5 Page 14

Distribution of Benefits

40. It is necessary to examine the intricacies of local production and transport systems to determine in what measure the farmers of Tabora Region will share in the benefits of improved roads. To analyze the distribution of benefits from the roads component, access roads must be treated separately from network roads. Access road improvement to all-season standard can have direct impact on crop productivity and marketing by provision of basic communications during the rainy season. Network road improvements primarily result in a transport cost savings. The distribution of these project benefits follows different paths.

41. Network Road Benefits. Vehicle operating cost savings accrue initially to vehicle owners. Trucks in Tabora Region are predominantly local, with 31% owned by government (parastatals and cooperatives), 29% owned by private firms, and 40% owned by small owner-operators. In the case of government vehicles, it is likely that savings will remain with the government agency involved, and will not, in the short-term, be passed on to either farmers (producers) or consumers. This is because the organizations involved are monopolistic (e.g., TCA and TAT) and have no incentive to pass savings on to their suppliers or customers. In fact, truck tariffs are set on a nationwide basis by the individual parastatals regardless of the road conditions involved. Tariff schedules applying in Tabora Region are summarized in the tabulation below:

ROAD FREIGHT TARIFFS IN TABORA REGION

Rate Organization and Comments

TSh. 2.25 TCA. Nationwide rate for seed cotton per cargo ton-mile transport.

TSh. 1.20 National Milling Corporation (NMC). Nation- per capacity ton-mile wide rate.

TSh. 1.30 TARECU. Regional rate paid to independent per cargo ton-mile truckers and internal rate charged for owned vehicles.

TSh. 10.00/100 kg. and Nzega Bus Service. Unregulated tariff. TSh. 18.00/100 kg. Flat rate for under 50 miles, second rate for 100-120 miles. ANNEX 5 Page 15

42. These tariffs mean that trucks belonging to TARECU and other organizations obtain the same revenue regardless of actual operating costs. Because of this, TARECU trucks are often contracted out for work on paved roads in Dar es Salaam during the rainy season when Tabora roads are bad and truck operating costs consequently high. Since tariffs do not reflect road conditions and vehicle operating costs, road improvements do not result in lower trucking rates for local inhabitants. Transport cost savings in one part of the country will, however, offset higher costs elsewhere.

43. Although independent truckers are supposed to be bound by a regional tariff schedule, and in contracts with a parastatal or regional cooperative, they are paid the standard rate per kilometer, regardless of the roads involved, in private dealings it is possible that bargaining takes place, with some adjustment for the degree of risk or operating cost involved. Bus passenger tariffs are also fixed nationwide in Tanzania, at TSh. 0.15 per passenger-mile for trips of under 100 miles. Again, this rate takes no account of road conditions, despite the fact that bus operating costs on certain roads in Tabora Region are easily twice as much as on paved roads elsewhere in Tanzania. This means that profit margins, incentive, and hence service, are low in Tabora. The fixed rates also imply that road improvements will not be reflected in lower passenger fares. Benefits will remain with bus company operators, who are mainly private individuals or small "cooperatives" of bus owners.

44. Access Road Benefits. Village access roads in Tabora are relatively short, generally 2 to 5 km. The difference in vehicle operating costs over these short roads before and after improvement is negligible during the dry season, when, therefore, vehicle operating cost savings in the normal sense are quite small. The major benefit from village road reconstruction is access during the rainy season. When an access road becomes impassable for a few days or weeks, the implicit transport cost skyrockets as usually the produce must be stored until the weather changes. Access road improvement thus results not only in increased production due to timely delivery of inputs and extension advice, but also yields additional market receipts due to less spoilage and higher quality produce. These benefits of improved transport service are directly passed to the farmer and his village primary society. The improvement in transport service to the village is much more important economically and socially than the minor cost savings computed on the basis of road transit in the dry season.

45. For passenger traffic, the same improved service can be expected. Several villages in Tabora which have requested bus service or loans to purchase a bus have been denied on the basis of poor access road condition. Numerous villages are without bus service during the rainy season, as operators are unwilling to take the risk involved. All-season access would permit expanded bus service to these villages. Although fares would not be reduced, the lower risk would induce higher levels of passenger service. ANNEX 5 Page 16

E. Costs and Implementation

46. Capital and Recurrent costs are presented in Annex 10, Table 6.

47. An implementationschedule for the component is at Appendix 8. ANNEX 5 Appendix I

Appendix 1 - Tabora Region: Organization of Road Services, and Road Conditions Contents

Chart WB 16309: Tabora Region Roads Organization, 1975.

Table 1. Comworks Personnel and Equipment Resources, 1975.

Table 2. Road Maintenance and Improvement Budget.

Table 3. Network Road Condition.

Table 4. Access Road Condition. TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT TABORA REGION ROADS ORGANIZATION, 1975

REGIONAL MINISTRY OF WORKS DEVELOPMENT DAR ES SALAAM DIRECTOR

L -- _ ------__ - -- - POSITION FILLED

POSITION UNDER STRENGTH

I I POSITION VACANT

I INSPECTOR I I MECHAtA ROADS

4 ~~~~~~~~~~~r--__, _ r-_ _ DISTRICT ENGINEER I DISTRICT ENGINEER | DISTRICT ENGINEER DISTRICT ENGINEER I URAMBO TABORA NZEGA I IGUNGA I

WASST INSPECTOR I TRANSPORT I | ASST INSPECTOR I ASST INSPECTOR r TRANSPORT I I ASST INSPECTOR MECHANICAL OL___FFICER ROADS I MECHANICAL I OFFICER I I ROADS I

FOREMAN ~~FOREMANSUB-INSPECTRS SUB-INSPECTORS SUB- INSPECTORI SUE-INSPECTOR I FOREMAN PEAN FOREENFOREMEN FOREMAN ME A SROAN MECHANCLROADS MECHANIALROADS MECHANICAL RASMCAIA OD

WORKSHOP ROADS WORKSHOP TRANS PORT ROADS | | WORKSHOP 3RANSPORTROADS ||WORKSHOP ROADS

MECHANICS HEADMEN MECHANICS ROAD HEADMEN | |MECHANICS | |ROAD | |HEADMAN ||MECHANICS | |HEADMAN| LAEORERS EOUIPMENT , LASORERS | | | EOUIPMENT LABORERS LAORERS

WolId BdnP 16309 ANNEX 5 Appendix 1 Table 1

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Tabora Region: Organization of Road Services and Road Conditions

The present position regarding staffing levels and organization, equipment,and network and access road conditions is summarized in the following Tables and Chart:

Table 1: Comworks Personnel and Equipment Resources, 1975 (Excludingbuilding and airport personnel)

A. Personnel (present strength)

Tabora Region: Nzega District:

I Senior Inspector (Roads) I Assistant Inspector (Mech.) 1 Assistant Inspector (Mech.) 10 Mechanics 20 Garage assistants Tabora District: 22 Drivers 20 Headmen (Roads) 2 Sub-inspectors (Mech.) 115 Laborers (Roads) I Foreman (Mech.) 40 Mechanics Urambo District: 80 Garage assistants 24 Drivers I Foreman (Roads) 1 Sub-inspector (Roads) 1 Foreman (Mech.) 1 Foreman (Roads) 10-20 Laborers (Roads) 15 Headmen (Roads) 85 Laborers (Roads) Igunga District:

B. Equipment (Serviceable) 1 Foreman (Roads) 1 Foreman (Mech.) 2 Motorgraders 5 Tractors 10-20 Laborers (Roads) 10 Trucks I Water tanker 1 Dozer 1 Pickup truck 1 Roller 3 Land Rovers

Source: BRONKONSULT A/B Report, Comworks Tabora, and mission estimates ANNEX 5 Appendix I Table 2

Table 2: Tabora Region - Road Maintenance and Improvement Budget 1/ (TSh '000)

Fiscal Maintenance Improvement Year Trunk Roads Other Roads Trunk Roads Other Roads Total 2/

1972/73 812.5 901.0 250.0 409.7 2373.2 1973/74 1022.5 1354.4 1002.0 3124.0 6502.9 1974/75 622.2 1350.0 400.0 600.0 3172.2 1975/76 246.4 400.0 3/ 300.0 400.0 1346.4

Sources: BROKNOSULT A/B Report and Comworks Tabora

1/ Exclusive of permanent staff wage expense.

2/ In addition, the Tanzania Cotton Authority contributes TShs. 250,000 annually for maintenance of cotton roads in Nzega and Igunga Districts.

3/ Half of this appropriation was transferred to wage accounts to cover severance pay for discharged workers. ANNEX 5 Appendix I Table 3 Page 1 of 2

Table 3: Network Road Condition

A. Summary of network road bad spots.

Road Category Total Length Bad Spots (km) (km) Trunk 310 - Local Main 634 165 Regional 71 5 District 1,228 386 Total 1,955 556

B. Local main road bad spots.

Section Total Length Bad Spots (km) (km) Tabora - Sikonge 75 5 Sikonge - Rungwa 193 80 Tabora - Urambo 87 17 Urambo - Kaliua 34 3 Tabora - Mambali 56 12 Tabora - Kigwa 37 6 Itobo - Bukene 17 - Simbo - Tabora/Puge Rd. 50 23 Simbo - Ziba 48 14 Ziba- Chomachankola 28 5 Puge - Ndala 9 - Sub-Total 634 165

C. Regional road bad spots.

Section Total Length Bad Spots (km) (km) Ipole - Koga (Ugalla River) 71 5 Sub-Total 71 5

D. District road bad spots.

Section Total Length Bad Spots (km) (km) Choma - Igurubi 49 30 Igurubi - Igunga 42 36 Tabora - Iseramagazi (Ulyankulu) 87 8 Tabora - Igalula 34 12 Itobo - Moabangwa 25 5 Moabangwa - Choma 23 8 Ibologero - Igurubi 42 19 Kigwa - Kisengi - Itigi 132 20 Igalula - Kigwa 18 3 ANNEX 5 Appendix 1 Table 3 and 4

Table 3: Network Road Condition

Section Total Length Bad Spots (km) (km) Sikonge - Igigwa - Igalula 64 10 Pangale - Igigwa 14 1 Choma - Shinyanga Bridge 14 14 Ussinge - Kaliua 75 15 Ukombi - Kaliua 66 25 Usagari - Mambama 29 2 Bukene - Mambali 50 40 Mibono - Sikonge 14 0 Igalula - Goweko 22 6 Kigwa - Tura 102 16 Kisengi - Loya 44 3 Uyowa - Iseramagazi 28 0 Mambali - Bukumbi 21 0 South of Puge - Mirambo/Itobo 35 2 Simbo - Lugobo 55 11 Nkinga - Sungwisi 10 2 Igurubi - Mwanyagula 34 34 Mwanyagula - Igunga 38 38 Mbutu - Skamaliwa 26 26 Bukene - Bulunde 14 0 Bulunde - Nzega 21 0

Sub-Total 1,228 386

Table 4: Access Road Condition

Total Villages w/out Length No. All-Season Bad Spots Zone Node Ward Villages Access Km

WESTERN Ulyankulu Ulyankulu 6 2 2.5 Ibiri 8 4 4.9 Ussinge Ussinge 3 3 10.0 Kaliua Kaliua 13 6 8.5 Urambo Urambo 13 7 7.7 Ussoke Ussoke 10 7 12.0 Ndono 8 7 11.8 SOUTHERN Sikonge Sikonge 5 1 1.0 Tutuo 8 5 12.0 Ipole Mibono 2 2 12.1 Chabutwa 3 0 2.0 CENTRAL Tabora Mabama 5 5 10.3 Lulanguru 8 5 10.0 Kalunde 4 1 0.5 Misha 7 6 18.0 Itetemiya 8 5 3.5 Mtendeni 7 5 0.8 ANNEX 5 Appendix 1 Table 4 Page 2 of 2

Total Villages w/out Length No. All-Season Bad Spots Zone Node Ward Villages Access Km

NORTHWEST Bukumbi Bukumbi 5 4 18.0 Mambali Mambali 4 2 18.0 Bukene Bukene 3 2 3.0 Karitu 4 2 6.2 Isanzu 4 2 0.6 Kahama ya Nhalanda 3 3 9.0 Uduka 5 2 2.0 Itobo Itobo 6 2 3.0 Kasela 3 1 2.0 Mwamala 5 3 2.5 Mwangoye 6 6 1.4 Igusulu 5 3 12.0 CENTRAL EAST Igalula Imalakaseko 8 8 9.4 Kisengi Kisengi 5 5 3.0 Upuge Upuge 9 4 5.6 Puge Puge 3 2 3.5 Nkinziwa 3 2 6.0 Magengati 8 3 3.1 Nzega Utwigu 6 3 7.4 Nyasa 4 0 0 Miguwa 4 2 8.0 Mbogwe 3 3 5.5 Lusu 4 4 6.5 Nata 4 2 5.0 Nzega-Ndogo 2 1 1.0 Ndala Ndala 7 3 9.0 Tongi 5 5 10.5 Nikinga Mwisi 5 4 19.6 Sungwisi 3 1 2.0 Ulaya 4 2 6.0 Ziba Ziba 5 2 6.5 Ndembezi 5 4 14.3 Nyendekwa 5 2 2.0 Simbo Simbo 7 4 11.5 Chabutwa 3 1 0.6 Itumba 4 4 1.0 NORTHEAST Choma Choma 5 4 8.5 Mwashiku 4 3 4.4 Igunga Igunga 9 3 15.5 Mbutu 8 8 19.0 Kining'inila 3 3 9.0 Igurubi Igurubi 5 5 7.0 Kinungu 6 6 7.4 TOTAL REGION 327 206 413.1

TOTAL LENGTH OF ACCESS ROADS 1,320.2 km ANNEX 5 Appendix 2 Page 1

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Draft Terms of Reference For Technical Cooperation Personnel For Road Maintenance & Improvement

I. OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this technical cooperation is to ensure effective implementation of the project, including the organizing and directing of road maintenance and improvement works and the training of counterpart personnel within the context of the IDA-assisted Project for Tabora Region.

II. SCOPE OF THE TECHNICAL SERVICES

Six people will be employed and assigned to assist the Tabora Regional Engineer for a period of 2 1/2 - 3 years. They will advise and provide support in the areas of equipment procurement, management of road maintenance and betterment activities, supervision of road betterment units, management of equipment workshops and supervision of equipment repairs in the field. The team will be responsible for training counterparts to carry out these same duties effectively, and assisting with training local staff concerned with road maintenance and improvement in Tabora.

At present, the Project is expected to cover five years, from 1977 to 1982. The key personnel (Senior Roads Engineer and Workshop Mechanic) will be expected to arrive in Tabora not later than June, 1977, and the remaining experts at varying times but not later than December, 1977. At the end of 3 years, the further need for technical personnel would be evaluated and further assistance may be offered.

III. INDIVIDUAL JOB DESCRIPTIONS

A. Roads Engineer

Duties:

Will report to the Regional Development Director, Tabora, through the Project Coordinator of the Tabora Rural Development Project.

Will be assigned to the Regional Engineer to work within the Regional Comworks organization, to advise and assist on all aspects of the roads component; will also provide liaison with the Regional Planning Unit concerning the roads component. Will assist with road equipment procurement, maintenance planning, and betterment unit deployment. Will also train counterparts in road maintenance and construction procedures, and will supervise all other roads component technical assistance personnel. ANNEX 5 Appendix 2 Page 2

Qualifications:

Should be a qualified Professional Civil Engineer with 15 years experience in road planning, design, construction and maintenance, specifically including gravel and earth roads; preferably not less than 10 years experience should have been in operational and managerial aspects of road maintenance and construction in a public highway/roads department, preferably in an LDC.

Must be conversant with unit costing and similar management systems and have suitable experience in equipment usage and control.

Must be able to communicate ideas easily.

Location:

Will be stationed in Tabora.

B. Workshop Mechanical Inspector

Duties:

Will report to the Roads Engineer.

Will assist the Roads Engineer and the Regional Engineer in properly organizing, refitting, and directing the road equipment workshops in Tabora and Nzega.

Will train counterparts in the field of mechanical workshop management.

Qualifications:

Should be qualified in the maintenance and repair of heavy equipment and vehicles with a total of 10 years experience, at least 3 of which should have been in a post of responsible charge of a workshop. Government experience desirable but not essential.

Prior knowledge of Swahili useful or should be acquired on the job.

Location:

Will be stationed in Tabora, with some travel to Nzega.

C. Roads Inspectors (two)

Duties:

Will report to the Roads Engineer. ANNEX 5 Appendix 2 Page 3

Under the guidance of Roads Engineer and Regional Engineer, will initially direct operations of the maintenance and betterment units in the field, and will train counterparts in the techniques of road construction and maintenance management.

Qualifications:

Should be a qualified road construction inspector or superintendent, with a total of 10 years heavy construction experience, at least 5 of which should have been in a responsible position with a road construction unit. Road maintenance experience also desirable.

Must learn rapidly to communicate effectively in Swahili.

Location:

Will be based in Tabora, but travelling with betterment and maintenance units throughout the Region 6 - 9 months per year.

D. Field Mechanic

Duties:

Will report to the Roads Engineer, collaborating closely with the Workshop Mechanic.

Will direct equipment repair and maintenance activities in the field, working with the road betterment units. Will train counterparts in the techniques of preventive maintenance and routine repairs.

Qualifications:

Should be qualified in the maintenance and repair of heavy equipment and vehicles with a total of 5 years experience.

Technical training in automotive mechanics is essential.

Must be willing to learn Swahili on the job.

Location:

Will be stationed in Tabora, with substantial periods of field work. ANNEX 5 Appendix 2 Page 4 E. Accountant

Duties:

Will report to the Roads Engineer and liaise with the Tabora Rural Development Project Financial Controller.

Will assist the Regional Engineer's accounting staff in accounting for expenditureunder the project. Will devise and implement accounting procedures which will enable accurate unit costings of the various road maintenance and betterment functions to be obtained and will supply these to the Roads Engineer for cost control and operational improvementpurposes.

Qualifications:

10 years experience of Government accounting systems including at least 2 years experience of unit cost accounting.

Location:

Tabora. ANNEX 5 Appendix 3 Page 1

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Roads Component Local Staff and Equipment Cost 1/

A. Plant and Transport

_ _

Station Wagons 1 @ 4,000 4,000 Land Rovers 9 @ 3,500 31,500 Tippers 10 @ 7,000 70,000 L.W.B. 2 @ 6,200 12,400 Boswer 1 @ 7,500 7,500 Loader-Wheeled 1 @ 9,500 9,500 Dozer 140 HP 2 @ 45,000 90,000 Roller Towed 2 @ 3,500 7,000 Grader Powered 2 @ 28,000 56,000 Grader Towed 2 @ 1,300 2,600 Tipping Trailer 18 @ 650 11,700 Tractors 75 HP 21 @ 5,000 105,000 Water Trailers 3 @ 1,300 3,900 Water Pumps 3 @ 500 1,500 Caravans 2 @ 5,000 10,000

422,600

Spares 42,400 Freight and Insurance 69,000

Total equipment & spares: 534,000

1/ To be provided under the UK Overseas Development Programme. ANNEX 5 Appendix 3 Page 2

B. IncrementalLocal Staff 1/ (Costs per month of 26 working days).

6 Foremen 234 5 Plant operator 195 44 Drivers 1,487 8 Tradesmen 277 50 Labourers 1,444 3 Clerk/Storekeepers 103 2 Survey Assistants 69 6 Mechanics 207 4 Headmen 127

4,143

Say £4,200 per month for 51 months = 214,200

Allowances 20,000

Total local staff costs 234,200 Say £235,000

1/ Over current establishment. ANNEX 5 Appendix 3 Page 3

C. Operating Costs and Stores

Diesel Litres

12 trucks x 4.25 yrs x 2000 hrs x 10 litres 1,020,000

2 graders x 4.25 yrs x 1800 hrs x 20 litres = 306,000

2 dozers x 4.25 yrs x 1800 hrs x 20 litres 306,000

1 loader x 4.25 yrs x 1800 hrs x 20 litres 153,000

21 tractors x 4.25 yrs x 1800 hrs x 10 litres = 1,606,500

1 bowser x 4.25 yrs x 1800 hrs x 10 litres = 77,000 3,468,500

Petrol

10 Land Rovers x 4.5 yrs x 3000 hrs x 10 litres = 1,350,000

Costs (General) E

3,468,500 litres diesel @ 2/10 520,000

1,350,000 litres petrol @ 3/30 318,000

Lubricants 10,000

Cement 1,000 tons @ E40 40,000

Timber 5,000

Culverts 20,000

Temporary Camps 10,000

General Stores 10,000

Workshop improvements and equipment 50,000

Soils equipment 1,000

Equipment spares after year 3 75,000

Total General Costs E 1,059,000 ANNEX 5 Appendix 4

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Road Design Standard

A. Road alignment

In general, the alignment of network roads in the Region is satisfactory, considering the terrain. Horizontal and vertical radii dimensions correspond to design speeds of 80-100 km/hour, quite an acceptable standard. It is proposed, therefore, to follow the existing alignment of network roads.

Village access roads presently vary a great deal in terms of alignment standard. It is proposed that horizontal alignments be revised where necessary to take advantage of the topography, and that design speeds of 40-50 km/hour should be employed.

B. Carriageway

Figures A and B show the proposed cross-sections for network and village access roads. Network roads are designed with a 4.0 meter carriageway, and a 15 cm murram wearing course. Traffic levels of up to 100 vehicles per day can be accommodated; a passing bay is to be provided every 500 meters.

Village access roads are planned with a 3.0 meter carriageway and a 10 cm murram wearing course. Traffic levels of up to 20 vehicles per day can be handled without passing bays.

C. Earthworks and Drainage

The murram wearing course for both types of roads is to be laid directly upon a base of compacted earth taken from side borrow pits. Bull- dozers will be used to cut side drains and use the fill for the roadway base. Earthworks in way of existing alignments will be increased where necessary (e.g., in mbugas) to provide 10 cm of earthworks above flood level. Cast concrete culverts, 600 mm. diameter, are to be placed as required. ANNEX 5 Appendix 4 Figures TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Roadway Cross Sections

fof2 < _ __0_t10 21T2-r2' 0o.7

_ -TOTALWIDTH 12 4 M

A. Network road (4.0 meter).

O F : ' X 3 C __ 75_ - 1

4 ,r, -71g,_ 1 / -t t-_ 4y#7 s S _--2~..-?>_ _ _ _

B. Access-road7(3.07 neter).

B. Access road (3.0 maeter). ANNEX 5 Appendix 5 Page 1

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Road Maintenance and Betterment Capacities

A. Network Road Equipment

1. The annual improvement capacity of the network road betterment unit is set by the lowest capacity of any essential piece of equipment in the process. The following summarizes the improvement capacity of the major equipment items: tipper trucks, bulldozers, front-end loader, and motorgraders.

Network Road Equipment: Annual Unit Capacities

(a) Tipper Trucks (7-ton truck)

Haul distance 8 km 3 Truck load 3.5 m 3 Truck capacity 4.67 m /hour Annual betterment capacity 7.8 km/year

(b) Bulldozer (140 hp)

Productivity 68 bank m3/ hour Gravel excavation 113 km/year Terracing ) simultaneously 75 km/year Embankments ) 34 km/year

Productivity 45 bank m /hour Load tipper trucks equiv. of 75 km/year (compatible with tipper truck availability)

(d) Motorgraders (125 hp)

Improvement, bad spots 416/km/year Routine maintenance (average 4 passess, 800 km/year 3 times a year; assumes 35 vpd) ANNEX 5 Appendix 5 Page 2

2. It is considered that the assumptions involved (i.e., 1,000 operating hours per year and appropriate productivity factors) will ensure successful operation once initial start-up problems have been solved.

B. Access Road Equipment

3. The capacity of each access road betterment unit is estimated at 1.25 km per week, or 32 km per 26-week "dry season" working year. Opera- tions involved in village access road reconstruction are: earthworks, murram excavation and loading, murram hauling, murram spreading, compacting, and culverting. The manpower requirements and assumptions underlying the capacity calculation are given below:

Access Road Capacity

(a) Earthworks (low spots only)

20 men capacity at 4.0 m /manday 0.625 km/week

(b) Culverting (1.6 culverts/km)

4 men capacity 2 culverts/week

excavation at 4.0 m /man day 20 men trailer loading 20 men

(d) Murram handing (5 km distance)

trailer load 2.5 J3 6 trailers (with 3 agricultural tractors) 75 m /day capacity for handling 1.25 km/week

(e) Murram spreading

15 men at 12 m /man day 1.25 km/week

(f) Compacting

1,000 gal. water trailer followed by five or six passes of towed roller. ANNEX 5 Appendix 6

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Road Betterment Unit Development

A. Network Road Betterment Units

1. Network road betterment equipment will initially be assembled in Tabora. The composition of the units and the development sequence will be finalized by the Regional Engineer and the Roads Engineer, who will draw up an annual program in consultation with the RDD and DDD's. Table I shows the priorities for work which should start with roads in Nzega and Igunga Districts, thus directly supporting productive components of the Pro- ject.

B. Access Road Betterment Units

2. Development of the access road betterment units will be determined by the Regional Engineer and Roads Engineer. The sequence of activities during reconstruction of village access roads can be divided into four phases:

(a) Planning, organizing, and surveying;

(b) Culverting, earthworks, drainage, and clearing;

(d) Surface compaction.

3. These phases must be carried out in sequence, with sufficient lead time, and can be ongoing at several locations. That is, the planning team can be working on access road A. Meanwhile, the earthworks and culverting team is at work on road B, where the first team has already finished its work. On road C, the gravelling operation is going on; and on road D, the compaction team is at work. Thus, at any one time, roughly four village access roads will be undergoing various phases of reconstruction. Since each access road section is fairly short (2 km of bad spots average), the entire unit will not be too widely disbursed. The pickup trucks and motorcycles will permit adequate communications between teams and will allow the entire unit to return to the unit camp at night. Of course, the importance of careful planning and coordination cannot be overemphasized.

4. The sequence of operations at a typical moment for the Access Roads Unit is illustrated in Table 2. ANNEX 5 Appendix 6 Table 1

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Table 1: Provisional List of Priorities for Betterment Work

Road Section Total Length Bad Spots (km) (km) Tabora/Puge Road - Simbo 50 23

Simbo - Ziba 48 14

Ziba - Igunga 47 0

Igunga - Igurubi 42 36

Igurubi - Choma 49 30

Choma - Itobo 48 13

Itobo - Bukene 17 0

Bukene - Mambali 50 40

Mambali - Tabora 56 12

Tabora - Igalula 34 12

Igalula - Kigwa 18 3

Kigwa - Kisengi - Tura - Itigi 132 20

Itigi - Kigwa 132 -

Kigwa - Tabora 37 6

Tabora - Sikonge 75 5

Sikonge - Rungwa 193 80

Total 1,028 294 TANZANIA

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Access Roads Unit: Typical Deployment

TEAM A B C D TOTAL

FUNCTIONS Planning road se- Bush clearing Murram excavation Watering Village Access Road quence Culverting Murram loading Compaction Betterment Organizingvillage Earthworks Murram hauling input Drainage Murram spreading Surveying road alignment Scheduling work

RESOURCES (Weekly)

(A) Manpower (i) Permanent Executive Engineer Sub-Inspector Asst. Exec. Engr. Foreman 26-man permanent unit (flexible) (flexible) (flexible) Tractor Drivers (2) Trainee Foreman Foremen (2) Mechanic Survey Assistant Trainee Tractor Drivers (3) Chainmen (2) Masons (2) Mechanic Driver Carpenter/Black- Clerk smith Driver Storekeeper

(ii) Village input Village Chairman Bush clearing (10) Excavation (20) Assistance (5) 107 men (average)village (consultation) Earthworks (20) Loading (20) input Roads Committee (5) Culverting (12) Spreading (15)

(B) Equipment Pickup Truck Culvert Molds Ag. Tractors (3) Ag. Tractors (2) Equipment for unit Motorcycles (2) Tipping Trailers Water Trailer (6) Towed Compactor Pickup Truck Water pumps (3) Motorcycles (2)

(C) Supplies Surveying bquip- Cement, Sand, Tools, fuel Water, fuel Tools, fuel, food, water, ment stone camp accomnodation Tools

OUTPUT (weekly) 1-5 km 2 culverts 1.25 ko murram 2-5 km compaction 1.25 Im of village access 1.25 km avg. earth- surfacing road improved from "bad works and drainage spot" condition to all- Minor bush clear- season, 3-meter murram ance standard.

April 16, 1976 D3 E ANNEX 5 Appendix 7 Page 1

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Roads Component: Benefits

A. Network Road Benefits

The computation of benefits for network road maintenance and improvement follows the road user cost savings method. The computation assumed a particular mix of routine maintenance work and reconstruction which is feasible with the equipment and personnel to be made available, but which, however, may be varied by the Roads Engineer and his staff in agreement with Regional authorities and according to changing local priorities. To that extent, the estimates are purely indicative of levels of return. The essential data for applying the user cost savings method are: initial traffic levels by vehicle type; vehicle cost savings; traffic growth rate; and kilometers of road improved or better-maintained per year. The basic assumptions used are given below for network road improvement; foregone maintenance; and incremental routine maintenance. The final benefit streams are given in Annex 10.

1. Network Road Improvement.

(a) Initial Traffic Levels.

Consultants' July 1974 traffic count data were adjusted to obtain annualized traffic levels (AADT). For thirteen road sections included in Appendix 1, Table 3, these traffic levels were weighted by the kilometers of bad spots to obtain an average base year traffic level of 18.8 vehicles per day. Composition by vehicle type, from consultants' data, is as follows:

trucks 34% buses 24% light vehicles 42% 100%

(b) Vehicle cost savings.

The basic source used was Highway Design Standards Study: Phase II (TRRL/IBRD Kenya Study), by S. R. Agarwal and C.A. Harral, IBRD, October 6, 1975. This is a very recent and thorough study undertaken in conditions not dissimilar from those in Tabora Region. Vehicle, fuel, and maintenance costs were based on present costs in Tabora, and vehicle operating cost savings were calculated to be: ANNEX 5 Appendix 7 Page 2

Category Without Project With Project Savings (TShs/v-km) (TShs/v-km) (TShs/v-km) truck 2.553 1.755 0.798 bus 2.280 1.704 0.576 light vehicle 1.673 1.105 0.568

Roughness assumption: 10,000 mm/km 4,000 mm/km

These values were then increased by 50% to account for extremely high transport costs during the wet season, when bad spots are impassable.l/ The weighted average vehicle cost savings thus obtained was TShs. 0.972 per vehicle-kilometer.

All vehicle categories were assumed to have an annual growth rate of 5%.

(d) Benefit stream for road improvement

The network road betterment unit was assumed to improve 37.5 km in year 2, and 75 km each year thereafter through year 6; then declining in capacity to zero by year 9. The cumulative distance improved, taken in the year following reconstruction, was multiplied by the cost savings per kilometer to obtain the benefit stream. The savings per kilometer was computed based on the TShs 0.972 savings per vehicle-kilometer, multiplied by the annual traffic level (increasing by 5% p.a. from the 1974 level of 18.8 vehicles per day). The benefit stream is as follows:

Benefit/km Benefit stream Year '000 TShs. Cumulative km '000 TShs.

1 8.073 0 0 2 8.477 0 0 3 8.900 37.5 333.8 4 9.346 112.5 1,051.4 5 9.813 187.5 1,839.9 6 10.303 262.5 2,704.5 7 10.819 337.5 3,651.4 8 11.360 375.0 4,260.0 9 11.927 393.8 4,696.9 10 on 12.524 393.8 4,932.0

1/ If this assumption were dropped, the overall IER for the Roads component would fall by about 2%. ANNEX 5 Appendix 7 Page 3

2. Foregone Maintenance.

Since maintenance of reconstructed roads is included as a cost, it is necessary to compute the present level of maintenance foregone as a negacive cost or benefit. This was computed by costing out the equipment and personnel listed in Appendix 1, Table 1. Equipment costs were taken as one-half the operating plus capital costs of new equipment. It was then assumed that half of the equipment and half the personnel should be counted as maintenance (rather than improvement), as this has been the ratio in recent years. Based on these assumptions, a foregone maintenance cost of TShs. 910/km/year was computed, and applied against the schedule of kilometers shown in para. 1(d) above.

3. Incremental Routine Maintenance.

In addition to maintaining the "bad spot" sections after reconstruction, the Project equipment is assumed to maintain other sections of road. This mainly involves routine blading by graders.

(a) Initial Traffic Levels.

Average traffic levels on network roads as a whole are higher than the 18.8 vehicles per day over the "bad spot" sections, since bad sections are mainly on smaller roads. A base-year traffic of 30.0 vpd has been assumed.

(b) Vehicle Cost Savings.

Following the TRRL/IBRD Kenya Study data, dry-road vehicle operating cost savings were computed as noted in para. 1(b); the weighted average vehicle cost savings obtained was TShs. 0.213 per vehicle-kilometer. Roughness assumptions were 6,000 mm/km without the project, and 4,000 mm/km with the project.

Five percent annual traffic growth was assumed.

(d) Benefit stream for incremental road maintenance

Compared to available grader capacity, routine maintenance benefits have been conservatively estimated as applying to a maximum of only 200 km. Multiplying the cost savings per kilometer, based on the above assumptions, by the maintenance schedule shown below, yields the following benefit stream: ANNEX 5 Appendix 7 Page 4

Benefit/km Benefit stream Year TShs. Incremental km Maintained TShs. '000

1 2,831 0 0 2 2,973 0 0 3 3,121 0 0 4 3,277 50 163.9 5 3,441 100 344.1 6 3,613 150 542.0 7 3,794 200 758.8 8 3,984 200 796.8 9 4,183 200 836.6 10 on 4,392 200 878.4

B. Access Road Benefits

Access road benefits are assumed to arise from a combination of vehicle operating cost savings; agricultural production benefits from all- season access for inputs and services; and reductions in crop spoilage and increased crop quality from more reliable access. The estimated savings per village with an improved access road over one without, based on current (1976) traffic, crop areas, yields and values, for villages in different areas of Tabora, are calculated as follows (TSh/village/year):

Vehicle 1/ All-Season 2/ Crop Spoilage 3/ Total Zone Cost Savings Inputs & Access Savings Benefits

Western 595 26,350 8,800 35,745 Southern 740 17,025 4,630 22,395 Central 85 7,675 1,300 9,060 North-west 330 8,755 1,480 10,565 Central East 220 8,800 1,610 10,630 North-east 595 16,275 5,560 22,430 Region - - weighted avg. 17,930

1/ Benefit computed as the difference between dry-weather operating costs of roads with 10,000 mm/km roughness and extreme geometry (without-project) and 6,000 mm/km roughness and average geometry (with-project). Data from TRRL/IBRD Kenya Study. 2/ Benefit computed as 2% of total net value of production. 3/ Benefit computed as 1% of net value of marketed production.

It is further assumed that traffic, agricultural production and marketed tonnage will grow at 5% a year in the Project period. Accordingly, the savings figures have been enhanced, and have then been applied to villages on the following schedule: ANNEX 5 Appendix 7 Page 5

Villages with Total Benefits Year Improved Access (TSh'000)

1 0 0 2 0 0 3 8 16.6 4 32 64.6 5 80 183.1 6 128 307.7 7 176 444.2 8 224 593.6 9 224 623.3 10 224 654.4 ANNEX 5 Appendix 8

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TABORARURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Roads Component Implementation Schedule

ACTIVITY DATE

Proposed credit approval date Apr 1977

UK grant approval June 1977

Staff recruitment, equipment ordered and shipped June/Sept 1977

Tentative credit effectiveness date Aug 1977

Arrival of key tech. assistance personnel Sept/Oct 1977

Arrival of other tech. assistance Dec 1977/Mar 78

Arrival of equipment on site Mar 1978

Review of Project component for continuance of Dec 1979 technical assistance

Completion of Phase Sept 1982

ANNEX 6

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TABORARURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Fuelwood Production

A. Introduction

Project Perspective Para. 1 Alternative Energy Sources Para. 3 Wood fuel resources Para. 5

B. The Problem

Domestic demand Para. 9 Requirements for curing tobacco Para. 10 Previous attempts to solve the problem Para. 13

C. The Fuelwood Production Component

Objectives Para. 15 Organization and Method Para. 16 Training Para. 21 Organization of Nurseries Para. 24 Monitoring Indices Para. 27 Expected Problems Para. 28

D. Support Policies

The Village Act Para. 29 Marketing Forest Produce Para. 30 Research Para. 31

Appendix 1: Areas of Forest in the Tabora Block (From Schultz Inventory, 1973)

Appendix 2: Growth Rates in Simbo and Urumwa Trial Plots

Appendix 3: Estimates of Village Wood Demand and Supply

Appendix 4: Organization of Fuelwood Planting

Appendix 5: Recommended Procedure for Measuring Fuel Consumption in Tobacco Curing Barns

ANNEX 6 Page 1

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Fuelwood Production

A. Introduction

Project Perspective

1. The Tabora Region lies ecologically in the woodland zone (miombo) of Tanzania. Human settlement has been restricted historically by the incidence of Tsetse, and the largest area of gazetted forest reserve in Tanzania lies within the Region.

2. The forest is thus largely intact except near settlement and particularly in rural areas where tobacco has been grown. However, several of these areas, particularly in Tabora, Urambo and Nzega districts are now experiencing wood fuel shortages both for domestic use and for tobacco curing. The present proposals are for a pilot attempt to replace the disappearing miombo woodland with fast growing plantations organized on a village basis covering a few groups of villages. Its potential use is especially for tobacco curing.

Alternative Energy Sources

3. The sources of energy available in the Tabora Region include oil, coal, solar energy, and wood fuel/charcoal. Oil is essentially imported and transported by rail from Dar es Salaam. Except in the towns, its use as a domestic fuel is limited and its use in tobacco curing is negligible. It has been the subject of a number of price rises in the last three years and the current price of kerosene, TSh 1.33 per liter ex pump, makes it an unlikely competitor with wood. Coal is mined near Mbeya and is transported by road. It is of low grade, and is also expensive -- a delivered price was quoted as TSh 410 per ton. Tabora would seem ideally situated to use solar energy, having 266 non-rainy days recorded. It has been used with success as a supplementary energy source for tobacco curing in the U.S.A. and its extension to Eastern Africa holds great hope and should be investigated, but problems of heat storage at night limit the scope of solar energy at present. Charcoal is used domestically, but not for tobacco curing -- its use is confined mainly to towns. The Forest Division price was TSh 12.00 per bag.

4. Wood at this stage, remains the most abundant, adaptable and cheapest fuel, and is likely to continue so in the immediate futures Prices vary: the rate for firewood ranges from TSh 7.80/m to TSh 15.00 m , depending on source and quality. ANNEX 6 Page 2

Wood fuel resources

5. Natural Forest. The forest resources of the Tabora Region have recently been investigated through the forestry inventory carried out for the Tanzania Government by C. D. Schultz & Co. (1973). I/ The areas of production recorded are given in Appendix 1, and are shown on Map IBRD 12516. Data indicate that the volume of wood suitable for fuel and charcoal 3production in untouched miombo woodland is fairly uniform at about 43 m /ha for all strata sampled, and this is believed to be a reasonable figure for the neighboring areas too. Of the species occurring in the miombo forest sampled, 64% by volume consists of Julbernardia globiflora (30.8%), Brachystegia spiciformis (21.7%), and B. boehmii (11.4%). Of these, a high proportion (8%, 33% and 39%) was reported to be of veneer quality, and in addition, significant volumes of fine hardwoods such as Pterocarpus angolensis and Afrormosia angolensis occur. When forest is cleared for agriculture, these high value products are often neither marketed nor marketable, and, it can be assumed therefore, that most of the growing stock will be burnt when land is cleared and that the yield may be in the region of 40 m /ha of firewood.

6. The selective harvesting of natural miombo woodland is possible for sust5ined production over a long period, but the yield is low, often less than 2 m /ha/year. Moreover, harvesting is expensive, and distances to consumption centers soon become great. Thus, the management of natural miombo forest for wood production alone is unattractive. However, there are a number of important functions served by the miombo woodland, including: prevention of soil erosion, harmonization of water yield, amenity value, honey and bees- wax production, and wildlife and flora conservation.

7. Forest Plantations. A few trials laid down by the Forest Division Silviculture research station have indicated that yields of fuel and pole wood of 20-30 m /ha/year may be obtained from well-managed plantations of exotic species, with first yields in 5-8 years. The creation of high yielding plantations near to centers of consumption, therefore, has advantages over exploitation of the forest: shorter haulage distances, higher profits per unit area, and more uniform produce. It would also relieve pressure on natural woodland.

8. Appendix 2 lists volume production figures derived from Forest Division sources, and mission estimates from Tabora. Enough information exists to enable positive yield estimates to be made for certain areas. The major species recommended at present, based on reliable trials, are (in order of preference):

1/ Indigenous Forest Inventory of five areas of the United Republic of Tanzania. Vol. 2 of 5 volumes, Tables of Project data June 1973. C.D. and Co. Ltd., Vancouver, for Government of Tanzania and C.I.D.A. ANNEX 6 Page 3

Eucalyptus tereticornis (including Eucalyptus 'C' from Zanzibar, 'Mysore hybrid' from India, and Eucalyptus '12 ABL' from Madagascar)

Eucalyptus citriodora

Eucalyptus camaldulensis (probably best from Katherine or Lake Albacutya)

Eucalyptus saligna

No other species should be considered for afforestation pending further research. Species which are unacceptably slow in growth in Tabora include Gmelina arborea (which is so outstandingly successful in moister parts of West Africa), Azadirachta indica (Neem), and other species of Eucalyptus. Some improvement may be attainable through research, but management of plantations can soundly be based on the above species now.

B. The Problem

Domestic demand

9. Various estimates of consumption for domestic use have been made. The following apply to rural communities:

Source Per capita estimate/yr

(a) FAO (Jongma, pers. comm., 1976) 0.4 m cooking only

1.5 m cooking plus local industrial use

(b) Openshaw, 1970 1/ 2.1 m (household)

0.2 m3 (non-household)

2.3 m (total)

For Tabora Region, a domestic fuel consumption of 10 m has been assumed for a family of 6 (see Appendix 3) to estimate village needs, though in conditions of severe shortage, this must be expected to fall considerably.

1/ Openshaw, K., 1971. Tanzania Timber Trends Study, Project Work Document FO:SF/TAN 15. 2/ Based on an estimate of 1.2 m per family/month. The range is for family sizes from 6-10. ANNEX 6 Page 4

Requirements for curing tobacco

10. A large number of villages in Tabora and Urambo districts grow Virginia tobacco, and large quantities of fuelwood are required for3 curing the leaf. Estimates of fuel requirements vary ensrmously from 53 m per 450 kg of tobacco cured (Openshaw, 1971) to 1.5 - 3 m in specially-constructed experimental kilns at the Tumbi research station. The report by Swai and Yull (1968) 1/ recommended urgent research on the amount of wood used in the currently-used mud and wattle barns be carried out, but no precise figures were3found in Tabora. From the information that is available, a figure of 42 m of solid wood per ha of tobacco grown may reasonably be used for calculation. This can vary considerably with such factors as improved barn design, on which work has been done in Zambia and elsewhere. Until farmers become more wealthy, however, it seems unlikely that improvements in barn design and construction will become widespread. WSth a well-constructed and well-maintained traditional barn, a figure of 20 m (solid) fuelwood could be achieved to cure 454 kg (a one-ha crop) of tobacco.

11. Distances of 16-32 km for the transport of fuelwood were commonly quoted in the old tobacco growing areas, and costs to the farmer varied with location. Cutting and loading were by the users, and no forest fees or royalties are collected. About 1.5 m (solid) were reported3 cut per man day. Full costs of transport are estimated to be about TSh 1.75/m /km for stacked timber3, although TAT charges are subsidized and work out at only about TSh 0.61/m /km. Subsidizing transport may delay the time when wood shortage for industrial and domestic requirements is felt to be acute, but will not solve it. 2/

12. The new complexes, in which fuelwood is still apparently plentiful, should assess the remaining volumes of wood available to them, and plans should be drawn up to phase the harvesting of the remaining areas with re- planting. Indications of how this should be calculated are given below, but it cannot be emphasized too strongly that in the production of wood fuel, long-term planning is essential, and that the village authorities must be involved in it.

1/ "Fuel for curing Virginia tobacco in Tanzania." Unpubl. report, Forest Div., Dar es Salaam.

2/ Questions such as whether it pays a tobacco village to plant its own timber or not, and the benefits or otherwise of transport subsidies on wood fuel have been tested in a linear programming model (Annex 7). On reasonable assumptions, it is shown that it benefits an established village to start a plantation: and that transport subsidy probably has no production benefits but simply represent an income transfer -- to a relatively well-off group. ANNEX 6 Page 5

Previous attempts to solve the problem

13. The problem of fuelwood supplies for tobacco curing is not new. The report by Swai and Yull (1968) records concern in 1962. The report proposes surveying the remaining areas of miombo woodland within economic hauling distance; carrying out Soil surveys, in potential planting areas; collection of information on barn design and efficiency; and preparation of plans for each tobacco growing area to establish fuelwood supplies. The report considers three approaches to fuel plantations: one in which individual farmers plant their own woodlots; one in which communal woodlots were organized; and a third in which an independent fuel growing and selling organization would be set up. Little action has followed, and natural forest continues to be the main source of fuel (aided by subsidized transport). The Forest Division has set up a number of nurseries and supplied trees to farmers and villages, but this attempt at getting farmers to plant their own woodlots has largely failed.

14. The reasons for this failure are important to seek if the position is to be improved. From discussions with Forest Division Officers, Regional and District planning staff, and with village chairmen and secretaries, the following emerged:

(a) The trees supplied were often delivered too late for planting (Village chairman).

(b) Farmers gave priority to cash and food crops and delayed planting trees until too late in the season (Forest Division).

(d) Wrong species choice (e.g., Eucalyptus maidenii).

(e) Villagers did not feel involved in the program - to the point of antagonism to the Forest Division - and cases were reported of plantations being burnt by villagers.

C. The Fuelwood Production Component

Objectives

15. The present proposals are thought to overcome these problems. They envisage:

(a) The supply of fuelwood for domestic needs through a pilot scheme involving a limited number of villages;

(b) The supply of fuelwood for tobacco curing through similar pilot schemes; ANNEX 6 Page 6

(d) The training of village personnel in forestry practice;

(e) The involvement of the new village organization in planning and managing fuelwood resources.

The forest area survey, and the soils survey in villages, will arise from other componentsof the Tabora Rural DevelopmentProject, whilst barn design for fuel saving is already in hand at the Tumbi research center which is receivingadditional help in the Project.

Organizationand Method

16. The steps necessary to implement the pilot component are:

(a) The selectionof pilot areas for woodlot development;

(b) The assessment of village requirementsof wood, and plantation area to supply it;

(d) The organizationof village planting;

(e) Setting up forest training courses for villagers.

17. Selection of villages for the pilot scheme. It has been assumed that the villages will be surroundingthe nurseries at Mabama, Urambo and Puge. The villages provisionallysuggested in each District are shown below, but prioritieswould be set by the District authoritiesconcerned. A planting target of 50 ha per year has been assumed for 14 villages, but it may be preferred to extend the number of villages and reduce the individualtargets.l/ Estimatesdrawn up on the basis of tobacco-growingvillages shown below, give a total area per village of 400 ha after 8 years:

(a) Tabora District: Nursery to supply: MABAMA

Villages: Mabama, Isila, Lololangulu,Itinka, Chese

Average distance to villages: 25 km

No. of families: 2095

Area: 18420 ha

Project planting target: 250 ha/yr for 8 years

1/ The model (Annex 7) suggests a little over 40 ha/yr for a 400 family village may be optimal. ANNEX 6 Page 7

(b) Urambo District: Nursery to supply: URAMBO

Average distance to villages: 25 km

No. of families: 2177

Villages: Kimbo, Mungano, Kololeni, Katunguru,Vumilia

Area: 59686 ha

Project planting target: 250/ha/yr for 8 years

Average distance to villages: 25 km

Villages: 4

No. of families: (Approximately1200)

Area: n/a

Project planting target: 200/ha/yr for 8 years

These schemes should be started as soon as possible. The existing Forest Division staff should be adequate for supervision of the nurseries and for extension.

18. Planting requirements. Few of the villages had been surveyed and registered at the time of appraisal,and the number of families in each is variable. The distance between each village was reported as being 5-11 km, and the area per 100 families as about 2025 ha. Each tobacco-growingvillage would require about 3.6 ha of fuelwood (the range is 1.8 to 4.3 ha) per family for domestic and industrialneeds, but until land capabilitysurveys to indicate areas of land to be allocated to tree growing have been carried out, the amount of land needed cannot be estimated closely. Assistancefor land capabilitymapping on Regional and village level is included in the Project. In Nzega District, which tends towards somewhat lower 5ainfall, it would be reasonableto expect lower wood yields, i.e., 10-12.5m /ha/yr. A minimum planting target of 200 ha per year for the villages is, therefore, suggested. Puge, which is near the main tobacco growing areas of Nzega district, could also supply plants to the northern villages of Tabora District.

19. Organizationof planting. Various alternativesfor plantationsin tobacco producing villages were discussed with Regional and District Forest Division and Tobacco Authority of Tanzania (TAT) staff and village chairmen. Individual farmers' woodlots were preferred by TAT officers,who felt that villages would not achieve planting targets: experiencewith this approach has not been good, however, (para. 14). Village block plantingswere favored ANNEX 6 Page 8 by others. However, although the Forest Division is competent to carry out plantation projects, the cost of such projects are high, particularly when the produce (firewood) is widely regarded as a "free good;" and this would also mean minimum village participation. Such a centralized approach was, therefore, rejected.

20. The technical preference is for woodlots to be planted in one or a few large blocks within the village area. This approach was favored by two village chairmen, who knew their areas well, and felt competent to allocate land. Forest Division Staff, must, of course, be available for advice on species selection, cultural methods, and phasing of operations and harvesting, and at least one Assistant Forester and one Field Assistant should be available for these responsibilities in each forest nursery. The year-by-year activities involved in organizing village blocks are outlined in Appendix 4. Agricultural crops - maize would be most suitable - could be planted between rows of trees in the year of planting, but the spacing of the trees must be reasonably accurate at 2 x 3m, a width selected to make agri-silviculture, or the combination of agricultural and forest crops, easier, and great care must be taken to favor the trees.

Training

21. Plantation management. The orientation of villagers towards tree growing for fuelwood production needs attention. The ownership of the trees by the village would go some way to supporting the schemes, but training in the basic technical requirements is also essential. The following would be an appropriate syllabus, with courses to last about 7 - 10 days:

The need for, and benefits from, forestry

The care of plants in the nursery 1/

Transport of transplants

Protection of planting stock awaiting planting

Land preparation

Methods of laying out spacing

Planting methods

Weeding and cleaning

1/ It has been proposed above that the raising of trees should continue to be carried out in Forest Division nurseries as the quality and origin of planting stock is too important to be left to unskilled people. However, in due course, village nurseries are a possibility. ANNEX 6 Page 9

Protection from fire, grazing, and termites

Felling and coppicing

Singling of coppice

Use of tools.

22. Clearly, priority among villages for attending training courses would have to be determined. Two men from each should be selected, and courses run in July/Augustat Farmers Training Centers. The maximum number of participantsshould be 20 - 25. Teachers for the courses might best be the responsibleofficers for the Region and Districts, rather than specialized lecturersfrom Forest Training Schools or the university. A simple manual with a title such as "ManagementGuidelines for Village Woodlots" should be prepared, for issue to course participants(as well as to TANU and village leaders). This could be based on existing literature 1/ translated into Swahili, and would form the basis of the course. Assuming one course was held annually, and that the cost per day per participantwere TSh 20, 10 villages would be covered per year at a cost of TSh 1600 plus travelling,or (say), TSh 2000 per course.

23. The improved use of tools. An average length of log for use in a tobacco barn is about 1 meter. Assuming that a 450 cut is taken at each end with an axe, the wastage would appear to be about 10% of the original log volume. This amounts to a significantaddition to the already wasteful use of fuel in barns, and it is recommendedthat training courses cover the selection and use of handtools. One village chairman complained about the design of the (Chinese)axes currently available, and it is certain that the pattern could be improved on using local manufacture. The use of bow saws would also greatly reduce waste and it is recommended that the use of these tools be also introduced in training course: 75-90 cm (30-36 inch) bow saws would be ideal. Axes and bow saw frames could be manufacturedlocally, possibly as part of the small industry component of the Project (Annex 8).

Organizationof Nurseries

24. The nurseries should be approximatelyone hectare in extent, with a good access road right into the nursery area. Three-strandbarbed wire fencing should be erected, but should be supplementedby durable hedges, to be planted as soon as possible. Nurseries would use well-tried techniques in use already, that is, germinationof seed in a seedbed followed by transplanting into polythene sleeves 10 cm flat width by 15 cm long (capacity- 500 ml). Other possible cheaper techniques,such as the use of earth balls, should be investigatedduring the project's operation.

1/ See for instance, Wood, P. J. (1966) A guide to growing trees in Sukuma- land Technical Note (New Series)No. 2 SilviculturalSection, Lushoto, Tanzania. ANNEX 6 Page 10

25. Nurseries are proposed at Mabamaba, Urambo and Puge. There are nurseries at the two former places, and cost estimates make allowance for the possibility of developing these sites. At Mabamba, the existing water supplies are inadequate,and provision has been made for digging a shallow well and installing a pump and water storage tank. A similar sum has been included at Puge, but at Urambo, piped water from an existing source is assumed.

Staffing

26. Forest Division staff already exist in all three project areas and it is assumed that they will continue in their present capacities. Inter alia, they will be responsible for continuing extensionwork to villages not included in the project. Extra staff proposed are as follows:

Forester (1). This would be a responsibleman in overall charge of the three nurseries. He would be provided with a FWD pick-up, would be stationed in Tabora, and would be responsible for overall planning of the disposition of planting areas in villages, and for organizing the Forest Division's technical assistance. He would also be required to assess and monitor the progress of the sub- project.

Assistant Foresters (2). Their responsibilitieswould be the organizationof seed and plant supplies for the villages, helping to draw up planting targets, and surveying and mapping planted areas in collaborationwith village officials. They would be in charge of the nurseries, and would be provided with vehicles for extension work. However, as all the villages should be less than 25 km from the nurseries, a relatively low mileage of 10,000 km per year is anticipated.

Field Assistants (3). These personnel would be attached to the nurseries under the Assistant Foresters and would carry out nursery and extension duties. They would be provided with bicycles. If the number of villages per nursery is increased beyond five, more Field Assistants would be required.

Monitoring Indices

27. The Forester in charge would be responsiblefor the continuous monitoring of the project. This should check village achievement,and growth rates, as follows:

(a) Number of hectares of plantation establishedannually by each village, compared with planting target.

(b) The survival percent and the number of plants planted per hectare (based on a sample in each village), in each year's area. A survival rate above 80% should be the minimum achievement. ANNEX 6 Page 11

(c) The growth rate achieved in each village. Height is the most importantparameter, and a rule of thumb would be 2.5 meters per year for the dominant height (the mean height of the 100 biggest trees per hectare). About 12.5 meters at age 5-6 would indicate that the estimatedvolume production of 15 m /ha/yr was likely to be achieved, assuming that at least 80% of the original 1667 trees per hectare were surviving.

Expected Problems

28. Village woodlots of this kind are somewhat new in Tanzania, and while the village personnelremain unskilledand unexperiencedsome difficulties may be expected. Anticipatedproblems and some suggested solutions, are outlined below:

(a) Poor selectionand demarcationof planting land. Forest Division Staff should be involved at all stages,and provide forestry expertiseto the village land planning teams, which would demarcateplanting areas and prepare working maps for village plantationblocks.

(b) Shortage of labor at planting time. Agricultureand forestry are competitorsfor labor. It is vital if these village schemes are to succeed, that village chairmen and their committees are rigorous in their labor planning. Responsibility,once the planting stock has been delivered, is that of the village, and this is one importantaspect to be covered on the training courses. Realistic planting targets are essential.

(c) Poor planting techniques and organization. Accurate spacing is importantboth for the form and yield of the planted trees and for agri-silviculture. Frequent appraisalsof what is actually achieved will be needed, and serious deficienciessuch as poor survival,will need the active participationof village chairmen to put right.

(d) Poor maintenanceand weeding. Personnelwho are aware of the standardsrequired for plantationmaintenance are essential,and will be availablefrom the proposed training courses. Frequent visits and advice from Forest Division Staff are also important.

(e) Fire risks. Eucalyptsare thin-barkedand susceptibleto fires. Clean-hoedfirelines will be needed in the plantations and work schedule in villages should include provision for these. ANNEX 6 Page 12

(f) Grazing damage. Yields will be greatly reduced if grazing is allowed in young plantations, or immediately after coppicing. Fencing is obviously out of the question, and training and propaganda are most important. In all matters of protection, the advice and interest of Forest Division staff, working with the village authorities, are the key to success.

D. Support Policies

The Village Act

29. The Village Act (See Annex 1, paras. 35-39) has made several aspects of village forestry more likely to succeed. In particular, the village has a title to its whole area, the village chairmen and committee have power to organize work schedules and to ensure work is done at the right time, and each village will be self accounting.

Marketing Forest Produce

30. Possibilities exist for putting forest produce from village areas on to a marketable basis. Each registered village has powers under the Village Act to set up funds. Forest produce from village areas - poles, timber and fuelwood - could be sold either to villagers themselves or to outside agencies, using the rates in the forest ordinance as a guide, and could be an important source of financing. There may be a case for allowing headloads of domestic fuel to be taken free of charge, but industrial fuelwood (including that required for tobacco-curing) should be paid for. If the blocks and land set aside for forestry are managed communally, income from the natural forests, and later on from the plantations, could be paid into the village forest fund. Ultimately, a village may wish to employ its own forest officer, and to set up its own tree nursery, both of which could be financed through timber sales.

Research

31. The plantation proposals are based on the results of past research and trials. The research forester in Tabora is an experienced officer and is competent to carry out further any trials needed, and no further provision for research is therefore made. It is suggested that the following topics require study:

(a) Effect of different spacing on wood yield. Areas set in villages for research would be administered by the Forest Division (FD). Plants could be supplied free for these areas, and the FD would supervise felling and measurement of the produce or would be retained by the village. ANNEX 6 Page 13

(b) Selection of new species. Provenance and species performance trials are desirable to test new genetic material. Seed would be obtained through the Silviculturist,Lushoto, and the plots planted under the direction of FD staff. At maturity, the trees would be felled, measured, and remain the property of the village.

(c) Assessment of fuelwood requirements. There is a paucity of valid informationon the actual inputs of fuelwood to tobacco curing barns under farm conditions. It is recommended that the research Field Assistant in Tabora starts immediatelyon a survey, making careful measurementsof barn dimensions,the amount of tobacco cured, and the time taken. Data to be recorded on fuel are indicated in Appendix 5. It will be necessary for the researcher to spend time continuouslyat the kilns, and it may be possible for him to cover 2 or 3 at a time. About a week will be necessary for each cure. As wide a range of barn sizes and types as possible should be covered -- it is suggestedabout 20 barns in each of Tabora, Urambo and Nzega Districts.

(d) Improvementsin nursery work. The stand of nursery work in the District nurseries visited was high: however, the cost quoted per plant was also high, probably because of their small scale of operations. As planting builds up, nurseries should expand so that each one produces about 500,000 plants per year. ANNEX6 Appendix 1 TANZANIA

TABORARURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Areas of Forest in the Tabora Block* (From Schultz Inventory,1973)

'000 ha

Goweko Forest Reserve (FR) 28.06

Itulu hills FR 290.61

Mpembapazi FR 48.95

Nyahua mt enga FR 459.83

Sikonge FR 34.91

Swangala FR 60.79

Uganda FR 100.80

Ukigwa rubuga FR 85.15

Wala FR 79.44

Public land 106.99

Total Product

Total Productive Forest 1,289.55

Total "non productive" forest 88.89

Total non-forest 1,046.97 Total enumerated area, Tabora Block* 2,425.40

* This area covers only part of Tabora Region. ANNEX 6 Appendix 2 TANZANIA

TABORARURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Growth Rates in Simbo and Urumwa Trial Plots I/

h- Location t Z d- dom G V Plot. No. Species yrs N cm m m2 /ha m3 /ha V/t I

Urumwa 4 Eucalyptus "C" 6.2 85 10.9 16.1 15.1 121.56 19.6 -

Urumwa 4 " " 7.3 85 11.6 16.7 17.2 143.62 19.7 22.1

Urumwa 4 " " 8.3 82 12.5 19.0 18.7 177.65 21.4 34.0

Urumwa 5 E. citriodora 6.2 90 11 15.6 16.4 127.92 20.6 -

Urumwa 5 " 7.25 90 11.5 16.2 18.4 149.04 20.6 21.1

Simbo 3 E. camaldulensis 8.25 - 12.6 18.2 21.3 193.83 23.5 44.8

Simbo 3 ' " 6.2 97 10.5 14.6 15.8 115.34 18.6 38,7

Simbo 2 Eucalyptus "C" 7.25 94 13.3 18.3 26.5 242.48 33.44 -

Simbo Gmelina arborea 7 97 7.7 7.3 8.3 30.3 4.3 -

Urumwa Azadirachta 4 16 - 4.8 - - - - indica

1/ Volumes are calculated from V - 0.5G x h-dom. Solid volumes overbark. The factor of 0.5 is higher than that normally used for timber, but a conservative estimate for firewood. In fact, some poles would also be produced. A reduction of 15% for roads and gaps would be applicable. All the Eucalyptus species could then be relied on to produce 17-20 m3 /ha/yr over 6-8 years.

Note: t = age in years d- = mean diameter, cm %N = percent survival h V = volume of wood/ha, m3 dom = mean height of 100 trees of greatest diameter per ha 2 G = basal area/ha, m ANNEX6 Appendix 3 TANZANIA Page 1

TABORARURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Estimates of Village Wood Demand And Supply

1. Demand

Assumptions Village is of 250 families Tobacco grown at 0.8 ha per family One ha of tobacco yields 675 kg of cured leaves-/ 0.8 ha yields 540 kg leaves 35 m3 wood is required to dry 450 kg (range 20-53) 42 m3 required per 0.8 ha tobacco per year 53 m3 required per hectare tobacco per year 10 m3 required domestically per family per yearl/ 2 m3 of poles required per family per year 3/

Therefore (a) Annual wood fuel need/family

Tobacco curing 42 m3 Domestic 10 m3 Poles 2 m3 54 m 54 m3

(b) Village requirement. 13500 m3 per year

2. Supply

Plantations of Eucalyptus can yield 12.5 - 30 m3 per hectare per year depending on site and treatment. A figure of 15 m3 /ha/yr should be easily achieved on an 8-year rotation. Variations in yield affect the area of plantations needed as follows (areas in ha):

3 Yield m /ha/yr C 12.5 15 20 25 30

Area needed/family domestic fuel poles 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4

Area needed/family Tobacco fuel only 3.4 2.8 2 1 1.7 1.4

Total area/family 4.3 3.6 2.7 2.2 1.8

Village area domestic 250 200 150 125 100 Village area tobacco fuel 850 700 525 425 350 Total village area of plantation req. 1100 900 675 550 450

1/ Source: General Manager, TAT, Tabora.

2/ 1.5 m3 per caput x 6 persons = 10 m 3 . ANNEX 6 Appendix 3 Page 2

3. Areas of village and average haulage distance for fuelwood from plantations.

Assumption 250 families with 0.8 tobacco occupy 200 ha 250 families with 2.7 ha food crops occupy 675 ha

875 ha add 15% for roads, houses, etc. 1000 ha

Woodlot requirement 1100 ha Add 15% for roads, firebreakers, etc. 1265 ha

Total 2265 ha

If 50% of village area is plantable, this gives a total area of 4500 ha. This represents a circular area of radius 3.8 km approx., and a maximum haulage distance of say 4-5 could be assumed for produce from village plantations. ANNEX 6 Appendix 4 Page 1

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Organization of Fuelwood Planting

The annual activities involved in organizing fuelwood planting in village blocks would be:

Year 0 (Preparation):

(i) Village surveyed and registered, the number of families (NF) assessed, and wood requiremeit calculated. Phe wood requirement would be: (NF x 10 m ) f (NT x 35 m ) when NT = area in ha of tobacco grown.

(ii) Existing natural woodland assessed for remaining volume of fuel and poles (VR). If VR x 8 is less than the annual wood requirement, further supplies of wood outside the village must be sought, under advice from Forest Division Officers.

(iii) The annual planting target determined. The following formula may be used:

1.25 NF f 2.8 NT 8 ha

This formula assumes an annual yield of 15 m from Eucalyptus plantations on a rotation or annual cutting cycle of 8 years. In practice, a notional area within the capability of the village may be selected instead.

(iv) The area so calculated selected and demarcated by the Village Committees, drawing as required, on the village planning unit and Forest Divisio5 Staff who may have to advise on the likelihood of 15 m /year being obtained.

(v) Clearance of land begun.

(vi) The number of plants needed assessed on the basis of 1835 per ha to be planted. This allows for 1667 plants per ha at a spacing of 2 x 3 m, plus about 10% for replacements in the first season, and these should be ordered from the Forest Division nursery a year before they are required. ANNEX 6 Appendix 4 Page 2

(vii) Training courses for 2 men per village organized at local Farmer's Training Centers (FTC's).

Year 1

(i) Village Chairmen and committeesprepare work schedules for village work teams, depending on whether plantations are to be communallyor individuallyworked. Workers must be made available at planting time for trees.

(ii) Land prepared for planting.

(iii) Plants delivered by Forest Division transport at a suitable time for planting, say mid-December. Plants are stored and watered if necessary.

(iv) Planting, weeding and tending are organized by Village authorities.

(v) Year 2 area is selected, demarcated and cleared.

(vi) Plants for Year 2 ordered from Forest Division.

(vii) If possible, further villagers are sent on forest training courses.

Year 2

(i) Tending of Year I planting continues.

(ii) Year 2 plants planted.

(iii) Year 3 area selected, demarcated and cleared.

Year 3 - 7

(i) Planting, maintenance and annual orders continue.

Year 8

(i) Tending of Year 7 planting continues.

Year 9

(i) Year 1 planting is felled by the village and measured for production,on a sampling basis, by Forest Division Staff. Coppice regrowth should follow: in the case of failures, re-planting,as in earlier years, must be undertaken. ANNEX 6 Appendix 4 Page 3

Year 25

(i) Year I planting is felled for the third and last time.

(ii) Area stumped and re-planted,or, new plants, inserted between old ones in the rows. ANNEX 6 Appendix 5 TANZANIA

TABORARURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Recommended Procedure for Measuring Fuel Consumption in Tobacco Curing Barns

Type of constructionof barn (e.g. mud/wattle; concrete block/ asbestos sheet)

Dimensions of barn (length,breadth, height)

Time and date of commencementof cure

Time and date of completionof cure

Weight of leaves cured

Daily consumptionof wood, by species if possible

Length of time since trees were felled, if possible.

Note: Each piece of wood would be measured individuallyfor length and

mid-diameter. The length should as far as possible be the length of the

piece includingthat part lost through cost-cuttingwith an axe, thus:

l l l l

I t Diameter (cm) |1 F at mid-point

I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I

Length (cm) _____

ANNEX 7

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Fuelwood Production: A Model of the Timber Investment Decision

A. The Problem Para. 1

B. Assumptions Para. 4

Figure 1: Spatial Configuration

C. The Model

Table 1: Inputs and Outputs of the Major Activities

D. The Solutions

Basic Solutions Para. 8 Table 2: The Base Case The Timber Alternative Para. 13 Table 3: Base Case Figure 2: Village Income Over Time With and Without Timber Investment

E. Parametric Solutionsand Policy Implications Para. 16

Table 4: Timber Investmentwith respect to Discount Rate Table 5: Timber Investmentwith respect to Transport Costs Table 6: Average Annual Timber Investment Table 7: Forest Depletion Rates

F. Conclusions Para. 29

ANNEX 7 Page 1

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Fuelwood Production: A Model of the Timber Investment Decision *

A. The Problem

1. Tobacco, the principal cash crop in several areas of Tabora Region, and an important source of foreign exchange earnings, requires fuelwood for its curing. Heretofore, villagers have obtained this fuelwood from the surrounding natural forest. The depletion of this forest over time has resulted in increasing costs -- both in money costs and labor input -- for the fuelwood input. At some stage, the forest will be depleted to an extent that tobacco will no longer be profitable, and the villagers will either have to move, change their cropping patterns, or, as has been suggested, cultivate their own timber for fuel.

2. The primary objective of this model is to determine the optimal timing and scale of the timber investment decision for a typical Tabora tobacco-producing village. Because a timber cultivation activity interacts with other village activities and competes for its most important resource -- labor -- analysis of the problem cannot be of a partial nature; all of the principal activities must be considered simulataneously. Thus several secondary objectives can be considered as well: the optimal mix of tobacco, maize, subsistence crops and timber, the time path of village spatial development, and the optimal village size given different levels of the ex- haustible resource, forest.

3. These questions will be analyzed in the context of a village- level linear programming model which is both dynamic (comprising thirty sets of annual activities) and spatially segmented vis-a-vis the forest.

* The problem was identified by the Tabora Rural Development Project mission. The model has been prepared, and this Annex drafted, by G. P. Kutcher of the Bank's Development Research Center in collaboration with John H. Cleave and John H. Duloy. Consultant Peter J. Wood provided information on the forestry aspects. ANNEX7 Page 2

B. Assumptions

4. The following assumptions, based on information from Tabora, are included in the model:

(a) The village is isolated along one side of a road as in figure 1.

Figure 1: Spatial Configuration

annulus 3

annulus 1

/ -/ /

t'i{i~ _I__

road

Depending on the size, age, and intensity of tobacco cultivation, the forest will have been depleted to a radius as shown by the semi-circular forest line. This radius is a variable input parameter to the

1/ Several other spatial configurations could be considered without loss of generality. E.g., if there were no village opposite this one, the full annuli would apply and the forest exhaustion rate would be halved; also or alternatively, neighboring villages on the same size of the road could place bounds perpendicular to the road on the higher annuli and thus increase the forest exhaustion rate. ANNEX 7 Page 3

model, but typically it is about five kilometers. The remaining uncut forest is segmented into annuli of one kilometerwidth following LUschian analysis. Assuming another village is opposite the one under consideration, only half of the annuli are relevant.

(b) The forest has an average standing volume of 40 m /ha. Thus, if the forest line is five km away, tMe first annulus will contain 1,299 ha and 131,690 m of wood, the second, 144,520m etc.

(c) At real periods, one man could cut one m of forest wood per ten-hour day, or forty days per ha. But a worker must walk into the forest and would average five km/hour. Consideringannulus 1, bounded by radii of five and six kilometers, it requires 2.2 hours, on the average, to walk into and back from the forest, leaving 7.8 hours of cutting time. Then it would require 51.28 work days to cut one ha, 54.05 days in annulus 2, etc.

(d) The wsod is trucked from the forest at a cost of TSh 1.31 per m /km. 1/ No other charges, such as forest royalties or environmentaltaxes are assumed.

(e) The village comprises 400 families under the monolithic decision-makingof a village council. Each family has three adult equivalent workers. The maximum number of work days per month is 25, and the maximum number of work hours per day is ten. 2/ The demographic size of the village is assumed to be constant throughoutthe time span of the model. Given the scenario of excess land, sufficient working capital, and available investment funds, then labor and the forest are the only real constraints on village output and income.

(f) Maize and tobacco are the only annual crops treated explicitly in the model. The subsistencecrops cassava, rice, and groundnuts are fixed in terms of plot sizes and monthly labor requirements;these resources are simply adjusted downward to reflect the assumption that subsistence requirementswill be met prior to the undertaking of any other activities.

1/ All monetary data are in 1976 Tanzanian shillings (TSh 1.00 = US$0.12).

2/ See para. 9 below. ANNEX 7 Page 4

(g) The maize and tobacco activities are straight- forward annual cropping activities, and their inputs and output are shown in Table 1. An additional "maize-after-tobacco" activity is possible: if maize is grown on a plot which had tobacco during the previous year, the input requirements are the same, but the yield is 25% higher due to the tobacco fertilizer residue.

(h) Tobacco requires 35 m3 of wood per 454 kg of leaf, or 46.25 m3 per ha of tobacco cultivated. (This datum is dependent on the available curing technology; other, more efficient technologies involving investment in barns are not considered, nor are technologies involving other types of fuel). Furthermore, 10 m3 of fuelwood per family per annum is required for domestic and construction uses.

(i) The cultivation of plantation timber requires a cash investment of TSh 349/ha during the first year for seedlings, and labor as shown in Table 1 for the first two years. Thereafter, no labor is required except for harvesting. Cultivated timber yields 120 m3 /ha at intervals of eight years three times during its life cycle. Thus timber grown in year 1 is coppiced in years 9 and 17, and cut down in year 25. Cutting labor for cultivated timber is half that of forest timber (since the trees grow relatively uniformly in size, are concentrated and softer), and, of course, the walking time is not applicable.

C. The Model

5. Since village labor and the standing forest are the only relevant constraints, the model maximizes the discounted stream of returns to these factors over a 30-year horizon. Initially, a 10% discount rate has been used.

6. In each of the thirty years, there are activities for maize, tobacco, maize--after-tobacco (linked to the previous year's tobacco area through a rotation constraint), and timber cultivation. Because there is flexibility in the months during which timber can be cut, an additional set of activities distributes the cutting labor to the set of possible months. Table 1. Inputs and Outputs of the Major ActivitiesI/

Timber Timber Tobacco Maize (year 1) (year 2)

Yield (g/hectare) 675 750

Price (TSh) 8.4 .8 2/ Fertilizers and chemicals (TSh) 2000 20 349-

Labor by month Jan 44.7 46.67 10. 7. Feb 84.2 10. (man days/ha) Mar 87.3 13. 3. Apr 90.7 16.67 May 20.5 18.33 10. 10.

Aug 1. 1. Sep 37.3 7. Oct 44.7 8. Nov 19.7 13.33 9. Dec 46.4 33.33

Labor Totals 475.5 124. 48. 18.

1/ Derived from m.P. Collinson, "A Report on the Comparative Economics of Virginia and Aromatic Tobaccos on Family Farms in Tabora ristrict," mimeo, Western Research Center, Ministry of Agriculture, Tanzania, June, 1965, and updated 'rom IT77 sources.

2/ This figure is the cost for seedlings delivered to the village. No other inputs are required. See text for X timber '"output,". _

-Ij ANNEX 7 Page 6

7. The constraint set includes counting rows for village income, land use, maize and tobacco production, and the monthly labor constraints,1/ all on an annual basis. Forest wood availability is constrainedon a segmented basis as described above. A fuelwood balance requires that the domestic wood demand plus the tobacco curing wood demand equal the wood supplied either through forest cutting or cultivated timber harvesting. Rotation constraints ensure that the area in maize-after-tobacco in year t be no greater than the area in tobacco in year t-l. Each of the above activities and constraintsapply to all yearly time periods of the model. An additional set of rows and columns is required to place a value on the uncut cultivated timber remaining after year 30, the terminal year of the model. This valuation consists of the discounted monetary transport cost savings that would occur after year 30 when timber is cultivated. E.g., timber planted in year 7 will permit a coppicing in year 31 which would save the transport costs otherwise incurred if forest timber were still relied upon. 2/

D. The Solutions

Basic Solutions

8. The analysis of the timber cultivation investment decision requires comparisonof solutions with and without the investment alternative,i.e., projection of the path of village developmentwith and without the timber alternative. Thus the first solution simply projects the level of each of the activities,by year, and the time path of forest depletion,given the constraintsand the initial conditions.

9. For the basis "Without Timber" case the parameters are:

village size 400 families starting radius 5 km discount rate 10% prior year's tobacco 234.05 ha

1/ Contrary to accepted modeling procedures, no family reservationwage is charged to the objective function. This can be justified on two grounds: tobacco is sufficientlyprofitable to preclude non- employment of village labor, and no closely competitivealternative employment opportunitiesexist.

2/ This transport cost savings depends on the distance the villagers would have had to travel. To determine this distance, the forest depletion for each year subsequent to 30 was projected with a special solution of the model without the timber cultivationactivities. To be more precise in estimatingthe distance-relatedsavings (which depends on endogenous cutting rates), an iterative procedure could be used; however, the additionalcomputational cost would not appear to warrant the minor gains in precision. ANNEX 7 Page 7

domestic maize demand 650 kg/family/yearl/ domestic wood demand 10 m3 /family/year forest wood transport cost TSh 1.31/m3 /km average labor use 15 days/month/manh/ and the optimal solution is a cropping pattern of:

tobacco 234.05 ha maize-after-tobacco 234.05 ha maize 52.17 ha

3 10. Annual wood demand, including domestic uses, is 14,825 m . Table 2 projects the exhaustion rate of the forest by annulus, given the 5 km starting radius, and shows average walking time, transport costs, and (undiscourted) village income. Even though, in year thirty, the walking distance is almost 11 km and nearly half of a day's labor in cutting timber is devoted to walking, tobacco is still profitable. Maize production stabilizes at 273 tons/year just slightly above the consumption requirements of the village. No maize-for-tobacco substitution takes place over time as one might expect, possibly because of the subsidized transport cost on wood. Instead, the villagers find it optimal to retain a constant cropping pattern and simply absorb the additional walking labor requirements and higher transport costs. The decline in village income is about 12% over the 30-year span, and is graphed in Figure 2. This income decline, when considered with ecological deterioration from the forest exhaustion (this typical village "consumes" about 400 ha or four km2 per year) clearly indicates the importance of the timber investment decision.

11. Validation. The cropping pattern and income path indicate that the model closely approximates reality: tobacco production is at the level of 0.585 ha per family whereas observed levels are between 0.5 and 0.6; the village is just meeting its consumption requirements of maize. The shadow prices also conform to reality insofar as a market exists for the resources: the marginal value of wood in the first year is TSh 9.5 m 3, the market price varies between TSh 7.8 and TSh 15/m3 depending on source and quality. However, the wood market is sufficiently primitive to pre-

1/ The assumed maximum number of work days per month of 25 (para 4(e) above) was reached in only two months, April and December, with shadow wage rates in these months as high as TSh 50/day. If the input data are correct, it is unlikely that villagers value leisure or non-agricultural activities so much as to remain idle on the 25th day (as opposed say, to the 30th day) at this cost. The ten hour day assumption, probably high for East Africa, proved to be of no consequence: since this applies only to forest cutting activities, and labor in the possible cutting months is non-binding, the model implicitly permits free choice between longer work days and fewer days cutting and shorter work days and more days spent in the forest. ANNEX 7 Page 8

Table 2. The Base Case

Solution #1: without timber alternative

Walking Village Average time Transport I' Year Income Annulus Distance (roundtrip) costs being cut km hours TSh/m3

1 816,686 1 5.5 2.2 7.205 2 816,686 1 5.5 2.2 7.205 3 803,234 1 & 2 6.2 2.48 8.12 4 797,112 2 6.5 2.6 8.52 5 797,112 2 6.5 2.6 8.52 6 797,112 2 6.5 2.6 8.52 7 785,617 2 & 3 7.1 2.84 9.30 8 777,538 3 7.5 3.0 9.83 9 777,538 3 7.5 3.0 9.83 10 777,538 3 7.5 3.0 9.83 11 777,538 3 7.5 3.0 9.83 12 777,538 3 7.5 3.0 9.83 13 772,063 3& 4 8.4 3.36 11.00 14 757,964 4 8.5 3.40 11.14 15 757,964 4 8.5 3.40 11.14 16 757,964 4 8.5 3.40 11.14 17 757,964 4 8.5 3.40 11.14 18 757,964 4 8.5 3.40 11.14 19 757,964 4 8.5 3.40 11.14 20 755,399 4 & 5 8.6 3.44 11.27 21 738,390 5 9.5 3.8 12.45 22 738,390 5 9.5 3.8 12.45 23 738,390 5 9.5 3.8 12.45 24 738,390 5 9.5 3.8 12.45 25 738,390 5 9.5 3.8 12.45 26 738,390 5 9.5 3.8 12.45 27 738,390 5 9.5 3.8 12.45 28 735,622 5 & 6 10.2 4.08 13.36 29 718,816 6 10.5 4.20 13.76 30 718,816 6 10.5 4.20 13.76

1/ The subsidized rate of TSh 1.31/m3 /km. ANNEX 7 Page 9 clude village reliance on external sources, nor can a market for excess village-producedwood be assumed. Finally, the shadow-priceon maize production is TSh 1.61/kg or about double the regulated market price. However, the TSh 1.61/kg value is quite close to observed black market prices.

12. Sensitivity. The subsidized transport cost of TSh 1.31/km was parametricizedupward to determine the level at which maize-for-tobacco substitutionwould begin to take place. However, even at the highest estimated cost of TSh 2.49/km, no substitutiontook place, although transport distance ultimately reached 11.5 kilometers. At this distance, the cost of wood in transport alone is nearly TSh 30/m3 or about double the maximum market price of wood. In the absence of drastic tobacco price declines, it appears that tobacco will remain a most attractive cash crop, and variations in the cropping pattern away from tobacco are not to be expected -- with or without the timber investment.

The Timber Alternative

13. Table 3 summarizes the solution when the timber investment alternative, as described above, is introduced and the model is permitted to freely choose the timing and level of timber planting. Timber planting begins immediatelyand remains relatively stable at a level of about forty ha/year. 1/ The objective function, the discounted stream of village net income, rises from TSh 7.52 million to TSh 7.77 million shillings, or 3%. The difference is a net benefit, since the investment costs have been included. The new time path of village income, graphed with the previous solution's in Figure 2, shows that, in the first seven years, village income is lower (but only by about 1%), but thereafter,is higher and by a steadily increasingmargin. By the terminal year, income with the timber investment is 26% higher. 2/

14. The rate of forest exhaustion is, of course, slowed when timber is planted: by year 30, over 5,000 hectares of forest are "saved" and the average walking distance is about two km shorter. By year 9, the village is about 33% self-sufficientin wood, 65% by year 17, and virtually totally reliant on planted timber by year 26.

15. This solution,which was based on the best available assumptions about data, parameters, and village decision-making,appears to solidly support the timber investment decision. Even with the currently subsidizedwood transport cost rate, self-sufficiencyin wood is profitable, and has substantial long-termmonetary benefits as well as labor savings.

1/ This level is within the fifty-hectarelimit suggested as an upper bound due to managerial constraints. 2/ This income gain arises primarily from the savings in transportcests, although the labor savings associated with reduced walking do allow small increases in tobacco area. ANNEX 7 Page 10

Table 3. Base Case

Solution #2: with timber alternative

Wood Supplied Village From Year Income Annulus Timber Cultivated Timber being cut planted (halyr)

1 801,695 1 39 0% 2 801,422 1 41 0% 3 787,336 1 & 2 41 0% 4 781,620 2 41 0% 5 781,620 2 41 0% 6 781,620 2 41 0% 7 768,663 2 & 3 41 0% 8 761,835 3 41 0% 9 807,525 3 41 31% 10 810,324 3 41 33% 11 810,495 3 41 33% 12 810,506 3 41 33% 13 810,506 3 41 33% 14 810,506 3 41 33% 15 807i739 3 & 4 41 33% 16 797,211 4 41 33% 17 848,993 4 41 64% 18 852,165 4 41 65% 19 852,359 4 41 65% 20 852,371 4 41 65% 21 852,372 4 41 65% 22 852,372 4 41 65% 23 851,748 4 42 65% 24 851,652 4 42 65% 25 903,411 4 42 96% 26 906,577 4 42 98% 27 906,770 4 42 98% 28 906,782 4 42 98% 29 906,782 4 42 98% 30 906,782 4 42 98% Figure.2. Village Income Over Time. With and Without Timber Invastment-

900,000.

* ..-----... ~-...,....

14 300,000~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I . . -II 2 . .

44 4

1 L--~~~ 1-4~ - - -- 4 .

'-1 ~ . ~~ ~ ~....~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ .

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 5 9 10 11 12 13 14 15l11 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24. 25 26 27 28 2930W - 144 1 Year

base casa solutioa of tiub4Mi0steal cisc~i dt, transport coat. TZ*" 3 3i

i4~~~ A'I ANNEX 7 Page I2

E. Parametric Solutions and Policy Implications

16. Certain parameters are critical to the timber decision. These include the discount rate, assumed in the model to be 10% ; the transport costs on forest wood, taken TSh 1.31/m3/km; the size of the village; and the age of the village. The models sensitivity to these parameters has been explored and some policy implications of the results are derived.

17. Discount rate. The only datum which could not be validated or sampled was the discount rate, yet justificationfor the choice of this parameter is difficult given the myriad of inter- pretations possible. By taking 10%, it has been assumed that Tanzanian villagers would be indifferentbetween one shilling of, (say), tobacco revenue today vs. 1.1 shillings next year, or between one shilling of timber seedling expenditure today vs. 1.1 next year.

18. Although argument is possible over the number taken for the discount rate, there can be little argument over the acceptable range: a zero rate on the monetary flows is unquestionablyincorrect and 50% is intuitivelyunlikely. Table 4 shows the sensitivity of the timber investment level as the discount rate varies between zero and 20%. At zero, the village invests at a rate of 125 ha of timber per year for the first eight years, thus insuring self-sufficiency after year eight. After year eight, timber investment is zero until year 23, when it reverts to the 125-ha rate. This pattern clearly reveals the folly of using a zero discount rate: in year 23, timber begins to yield benefits beyond the time horizon of the model, and these benefits are valued the same as in the initial year -- i.e., a shilling in transport costs saved even in year 50 is worth the same as a shilling saved in year 1.

19. The solution for a discount rate of 5% appears to be a rough compromise between the solutions for 0% and our assumed norm, 10%. Again, timber investment begins immediatelybut at a less intense level; by year 10, investment is at the steady level of 41 ha per year and the intense investment to obtain the terminal benefits is not as radical as at zero.

20. At a 15% discount rate, the solution is virtually the same as at 10%, but at 20%, timber investment drops out altogether. This solution, perhaps reflecting a "devil-may-care-for-tomorrow"time preference, simply exhausts the forest as rapidly as possible, since the highest benefits are obtained in the early years (village income, which is TSh 816,686 in the first year, falls to TSh 4,312, or by 99%, when adjusted by the 20% discount rate in year 30). It is concluded then, that a non-extreme choice of a discount rate in the range of 10 - 15% avoids radical or inexplicablebehavior on the part of the model, and is justifiable. ANNEX7 Page 13

Table 4. Timber Investment with respect to Discount Rate (transport cost = TSh 1.31 m3/km) (units = hectares)

Year Discount Rate 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

1 125 94 39, 39 -0- 2 85 41 41 3 14 6S{ 7 81 8 80 1 9 -0- 32 1 10 141 12 13 114 1 '5 -0- 16 17 18 19

2121 20~~~~~~~-0 1,1 23 125 83 214 25 26 28

30 ,/ 12 A/ ANNEX 7 Page 14

21. Transport costs. The second crucial parameter tested is the transport cost for forest wood. The rate of TSh 1.31 m3/km assumed thus far is subsidized to a certain, though not quantifiable,degree. The technology involves tractors towing trailers. If all costs except fuel are subsidized,the rate is TSh 0.31 m3/km. The full operating cost includingdriver's wages and capital recovery has been estimated to be TSh 1.74 m3/km, although an alternative estimate goes as high as TSh 2.49 m3 /km at full cost. This wide range suggests not only that the transport cost for forest timber is a critical element to the analysis, but also that it offers scope as a policy tool if the government wished to encourage timber investment for ecological or other reasons. Table 5 shows how the level of timber investmentvaries with transport cost rate. At the full subsidy rate (at which payment is for fuel only) of TSh 0.31 m3 /km, no timber investment occurs, and forest wood is relied upon throughout the 30 year time horizon. Village income per year only drops by 2.6% (undiscounted). But if the subsidy is halved to yield a net transport cost of TSh 0.81 m3 /km, timber investment does occur, and at a rate almost as high as that under the current subsidy rate. This remarkableresult indicates that a reduction of subsidies will not only reduce governmentalexpenditures, but induce investment wnich will ultimately increase village income (tobacco production, and thus foreign exchange earnings, remain unchanged). At the TSh 1.74 m3/km (unsubsidized)rate, timber investmentis marginally higher than at TSh 1.31 m3/km and at the highest rate of TSh 2.49 m3 /km investment is at its maximum intensity to reach self-sufficiency in the shortest time.

22. Table 6 shows the relative intensities of timber investment over the matrix of discotnt rate and transport cost rates discussed in paras. 17-21 above, with the timber intensity defined as the average number of hectares planted over the 30-year span. At the minimum, this table illustratesthat the model behaves in an a priori predictable fashion, i.e., timber investment is more intense the higher the transport cost, and less intense the higher the discount rate. But it also indicates that the investment decision -- at the level to achieve self-sufficiencywithout deep cuts into current income -- is markedly stable vis-a-vis reasonablediscount and transport rates.

23. It is apparent that a complete removal of transport cost subsidies, when the timber investment alternativeis possible, would not only reduce governmentexpenditures, whilst leaving foreign exchange earnings from tobacco untouched, but would also induce the ecologically-favorabletimber investmentas well. In fact, these solutions show that the current subsidy scheme is simply, and totally, an income transfer with no productionbenefits and unless straight income transfer to the rural population is the goal, is unwarranted. Even this goal is not achieved if the source of the subsidy is the same population, being taxed through lowered produce prices. ANNEX7 Page 15

Table 5. Timber Investment with Respect to Transport Costs

(discount rate = 10%) (units = hectares)

Transport rate (TSh/m 3/km)

Year 0.31 0.81 1.31 1.74 2.49

1 -0- 39 39 50 125 2 41 41 43 3 4 6 1 7 h2 8 293k 1 10 123 11 12 13 14 16 17 39 18 4 19 20 21 22 -0- 23 42 41 25 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~84 26 )82 27 281 290 123 ANNEX 7 Page 16

Table 6. Average Annual Timber Investment (hectares) discount rate TSh/m3 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0.31 41 -0- _ 0-

0,*81 4 transport 1.31 67 58 41 41 -0- cost rate _ 1.74 43 (41)

2.49 125 59 41 1 -0-

3.25 _(41Y

* From about year 23 onwards only. The model also suggests timber investmentwould take place, starting about year 29, with a transport cost of TSh 3.00/m3 /km if the discount rate were as high as 25%. This rate seems extreme, however, and, especiallywith unsubsidized transportation,an immediate start on investment can be expected. ANNEX 7 Page 17

24. If it were necessary to maintain some form of subsidy, it could be preferableto shift to the timber planting activity in the interestsof promoting long-run village development.

25. Apart from removing the wood transport subsidy and direct support of planting activity, the governmenthas an additional instru- ment with which to induce timber investment: a royalty or environmental surcharge on forest cutting. A simulationof the application of such a royalty at the rate of TSh 140/ha (the legal statute) is of interest. Compared with the base case (Table 3) when this tax was applied to all forest timber cutting (the law does not differentiate forest by location),timber plantings increasedonly marginally (by twelve ha in year 1, and by 2.5 ha for the next five years) while the total area of forest felled dropped by only 435 ha (8%). The income losses due to the taxes were, however, substantial: income dropped by 15% in the first year the tax was imposed, and continued to be lower than the non-tax situationuntil year 24, when total village wood self-sufficiencywas obtained. Given the rigidity of the village's labor constraints,there thus appears little the governmentcan do to hasten timber investment substantiallybeyond the rates shown in Table 3; royalties or taxes and subsidies, are largely income transfers.

26. Village size. The size of the village is also a parameter for which the magnitude of the timber investmentlevel is important, and not easily predictable. Ceteris paribus wood requirementsshould be proportionalto the number of families: domestic wood demand depends proportionallyon the number of families,and tobacco wood demand depends directly on tobacco cultivationwhich, of course, depends directly on labor availability. However, a smaller (larger) village size, given a constant forest distance and density will make forest wood less (more) a relative constraint and thus more than proportionallydecrease (increase)the intensityof timber investment. In a solution to the model with a village size of 300 (25% smaller), however, the departure from proportionalitywas insignificant: timber investmenttiming remained the same but at a level that was also very close to a 25% decrease. This solution and the base case indicate that a fairly safe rule of thumb is to suggest 0.1 ha of timber investmentper year for each family in the village, regardless of the size of the village at least around the average size likely to be found.

27. Village age. The age of the village is another certain influenceon the timber decision, although the model, in its current form, is not fully capable of quantifyingthe influence,because it does not focus on the dynamics of village development. It considers a village about ten years old which has reached an assumed steady- state size of 400 families and about 230 ha of tobacco and has depleted the forest to an estimatedradius of 5 km, and thus avoids many questions such as the growth path of the number of families (and thus labor availability),labor requirementsfor village establishment(land ANNEX 7 Page 18 clearing, house and barn building, infrastructureconstruction), the much more difficult land-workingconditions in the early years, and wood requirementsfor construction. To estimate the optimal timing and scale of timber investment for a new village would require these and other data, and a much more detailed model.

28. It can be conjectured,though, that a new village located in virgin forest will have on the one hand, sufficient forest wood available and, on the other hand, such scarcity of labor, and (probably)shortage of investment funds, to preclude undertaking timber investment in the first few years. Table 7, however, shows how rapidly the first few annuli of forest will be depleted to a distance where transport costs and walking time become important.

Table 7. Forest Depletion Rates

Annulus Average distance Wood Supp1 Wood Supply (km) (m3) (number of years)

1 .5 6,283 .42 2 1.5 18,850 1.27 3 2.5 31,416 2.11 4 3.5 43,982 2.96 5 4.5 56,549 3.80 6 5.5 69,115 4.65

The number of years of village wood supply is based on the model's equilibrium level of 14,825 m3 demand per year. This demand would be lowered in the early years if tobacco cultivation is lower and/or the number of families is smaller, but will be offset by higher demand for constructionpurposes. Nevertheless, it appears that within two years, the forest will have been depleted to an approximate radius of two km.

F. Conclusions

29. The behavior of the model appears reasonable on several counts: The initial "without-timber-alternative"solution closely simulates the observed cropping patterns and marginal valuations of the key resources and outputs, and the dynamic, "with-timber-alternative" version behaves in a predictablemanner with respect to the key parameters. The solution is quite stable within limits of the crucial parameters, the discount rate and the transport cost rate, implying that an investment program of about 41 ha of timber should be undertaken immediatelyby a "typical"Tanzanian tobacco-producingvillage which has been established for at least ten years. This level is within the resource (labor)means of the village, and without harsh early income losses, will permit village self-sufficiencyin wood in due course. This result can be obtained even under the current transport cost subsidy scheme, implying that this subsidy is unwarranted,unless ANNEX 7 Page 19 straight income transfersto rural villagers is a goal. If ecological considerationsare brought into play, a tax on forest depletionwould not decrease tobacco production,but only encouragefaster wood self- sufficiency.

ANNEX 8

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Terms of Reference for Preparation of a Regional Land-Use and Capability Master Plan

A. Background Para. 1

B. Objectives Para. 3

C. Strategy Para. 6

D. Relationship to other projects and organizations Para. 12

E. Scope of Services Para. 14

F. Staff and Costs Para. 20

Appendix 1: Implementation and Staffing Schedules and Disbursement Schedule Page 1

Proposed Staffing Schedule Page 2

Disbursements of costs Page 3

ANNEX 8 Page 1

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Land-Use Planning 1/

Terms of Reference for Preparation of a Regional Land-Use and Capability Master Plan

A. Background

1. The Tabora Rural Development Project is conceived as the five-year phase of a longer term program to realize the potential of the Region. The Project specifically aims at improving the planning capacity of the regional government; strengthen the infrastructural base by providing capacity to improve and maintain network and feeder roads and village water supply to facilitate increased market production; and to establish, on a pilot basis, methods of increasing crop and livestock production in selected villages. Direct assistance to planning future investments is being provided by a Water Master Plan, a small-tsetse-habitat survey, and Land-Use and Land Capability Mapping.

2. Tabora Region totals some 70,000 km , 9% of the land area of Tanzania, and lies between 40 and 60 S of the equator at an elevation mainly between 1000 m and 1500 m. Precipitation is 800-1000 mm, falling mainly from November through April: from June through September the average monthly rainfall is only 2mm. Some 2000 hours of sunshine a year are recorded at Tabora town. The population of the Region is estimated at 780,000: some 50,000 in Tabora town and the rest living in about 350 villages concentrated in the NE Districts or along transport routes, so that probably over 2/3 of the Region is uninhabited largely due to tsetse fly infestation.

B. Objectives

3. The objectives of the component are to provide a sound basis for agricultural development planning in Tabora Region. To achieve this, several levels of mapping are envisaged together with a strong training component. The multi-level mapping is necessary to provide material appropriate to different levels of organization in the rural development planning process.

1/ This component would be carried out by the Land Resources Division (LRD) of the UK Ministry of Overseas Development under a UK Overseas Develop- ment Grant. The Annex has been prepared in collaboration with LRD. ANNEX 8 Page 2

The training component is necessary because the2Project period is insufficient to complete, for the whole 70,000 km , such a program and must provide for continuing land planning thereafter to accommodate future socio-economic and technological approaches to land-use.

4. The mapping component seeks to provide for:

(a) The requirements of the Tabora Rural Development Project;

(b) The requirements of other specific development programs with components within the Region, notably the national maize and tobacco projects;

(c) The Regional rural/agricultural development program, notably in terms of village land-use planning, re-settlement, and livestock improvement;

(d) The ongoing requirements of extension and research.

5. The training component seeks to provide for the creation of permanent teams operating at District levels to deal with village level land-use planning. These will be supported by a unit at Regional level to supervise progress and standards of survey and to provide specialized pedological and ecological services which are not within the capacity of the land planning teams.

C. Strategy

6. The mapping component will be supported by data collection and analysis embodied in reports. This will cover soils; vegetation; current land-use and agricultural practice and land capability classification.

7. Three levels of mapping are planned:

(a) A reconnaissance survey of the whole region at 1/250,000 appropriate for Regional planning and policy decision-taking. It is intended that this will receive priority in order to provide an early basis for rural development. It is at this level that vegetation and current land-use will be included to support current examination of the scope for livestock and resettlement within the Regional programs. The scale has been selected as offering the best available compromise between the number of map sheets necessary to cover the Region and adequate presentation of physical detail. ANNEX 8 Page 3

(b) An intermediate scale of 1/50,000. This work will be designed to emphasize those environmental qualities most significant to village site selection in terms of the quantity and quality of land necessary to establish viable village units. The urgency with which this program is required in this Region depends upon the extent to which the reconnaissance survey, given adequate inputs, can fulfill the need. In the interests of speed and simplicity for planning purposes, there are strong arguments for using only two levels of mapping if they will suffice. It is therefore proposed not to start this program until the adequacy of the reconnaissance mapping for site selection purposes can be established. If required, this level of mapping will be undertaken first for those areas offering scope for expansion, as distinct from intensification of agriculture. The scale has been chosen to ensure adequate representation of detail and because complete topographic cover at this scale will shortly be available.

(c) Detailed surveys at 1/10,000 scale to facilitate land planning of individual village units. This program will be dealt with on a village and not a map sheet basis, i.e. each map will cover one village land area. It will probably be necessary to base the mapping on photo- mosaics and hence will be dependent upon new aerial photography at about that scale. This program is the most crucial to developing good land usage and providing a basis for increasing productivity. It should therefore be started as early as possible, contingent upon progress with the 1/250,000 mapping which will influence the assignment of mapping priorities. The emphasis will be upon mapping a land capability classification rather than individual environmental parameters.

8. In this program of land resource mapping, emphasis is on simplicity, for two reasons:

(a) It must be useable, and therefore readily understood, by all levels of staff with agricultural certificate training and upwards;

(b) It must evolve a methodology of mapping readily and reliably undertaken by such staff after the withdrawal of the expatriate staff. To this end, emphasis at the intermediate and detailed scales of work is put more on the evolution of appropriate methodology, the establishment of suitable classifications, and the training of staff to undertake this work, than upon ANNEX 8 Page 4

the coverage of a specific area of mapping. Further, it would not be possible for all such mapping that may be required to be completed in the Project period. Therefore, a continuation program for this work would be drawn up in collaboration with the Regional Authorities.

9. In the training component, the strategy will be aimed at establishing one land planning team of 3 trained staff (2 certificated and one diplomate team leader) to each District. These will be supervised by a unit comprising 2 graduates and a drawing office at Regional level. One graduate will be a pedological specialist and the other a specialist in farm and soil conservation planning.

10. This component will relate with the British aid project aimed at increasing the output from Nyegezi College of staff trained in land planning techniques, and improving the standard of this training to provide diploma level facilities. The agricultural (soil science option) graduates from Morogoro will provide a suitable source. Tentatively it is suggested that these graduates will undertake one year in the field with the project team, followed by one year overseas on a suitable course, to be followed by a final year putting their training into practice within the Project and the program outlined above. The capacity for providing such training and experience could, if desired, exceed the 2 proposed for Tabora Region.

11. The numbers of staff for Tabora Region proposed above are intended to strike a balance between the urgent need for this work; the quality of such work in the long term; and the capacity of the Tanzanian service to absorb and support them on a career basis without overloading recurrent budgets and facilities.

D. Relationship to other projects and organizations

12. In undertaking this program, it will be vital to collaborate with others operating in this field to ensure the orderly evolution of methods, systems of classification, and program of mapping and training relating to wider national needs.

13. In this context, particular attention is drawn to the roles of the following organizations:

The National Soils Service (Mlingano). To coordinate soils classification and ensure the orderly storage of all relevant soils data. ANNEX8 Page 5

The Bureau of Resource and Land-Use Planning (Bralup). To establish an agreed approach to regional mapping for developmentpurposes, especially in the use of remote sensing imagery.

Kilimo. To establish training standards, career framework and work programs for certificate,diploma and graduate staff engaged in soil and land-use surveys and land planning.

E. Scope of Services

14. Regional mapping: The Regional maps at 1:250,000 will be based primarily upon interpretationof satellite and existing air photographic imagery, supported by ground reconnaissance. These maps will present a qualitative evaluation of the physical environment in terms relevant to regional planning proposals and supported by an analysis of land-use based upon the most recent available photography. The estimated field time for this program is 18 months.

15. Site selectionmapping. Site selectionmapping using existing 1:50,000topographic maps as base maps will be initiated as soon as the 1:250,000mapping has progressed sufficientlyto permit agreement on the requirementfor such work (see Section C, para. 7(b)). As it is envisaged that this program ultimately will extend to cover most of the Region, the present componentwill be limited to establishingprocedures and classificationby undertaking a small number of sheets, beyond which the training program is expected to provide a permanent team capable of undertakingthis work. The first priority under this componentwill be to establish the criteria relevant to village site selectionand determine the principal crops on which the agricultural pattern is based. This work will include the delineationof ward boundaries on the 1:50,000 mapping, based on local enquiry. The soils component will be based upon the minimum acceptable field sampling density consistent with establishingthe basic distributionof major soil groupings affecting village site selection and crop zonation. This will be supported by sufficient semi-detailedcheck strips to illustrate the characteristicsof major soil groupings identified.

16. Land Planning Mapping: After initiation of the site selection program, land planning mapping (at 1:10,000 or such other scale as may be agreed in the light of evidence as being most appropriate to requirement)will be commenced to provide the basis for village settlement and related agricultural management. This work will be extended on an ad hoc basis according to local priorities within the limits of the field program and will provide for a continuationby fully trained local land planning teams.

17. The work under paras. 14, 15, and 16 above will include the development of a land classificationsystem related to local environmentalconditions ANNEX 8 Page 6 and applicable to all scales of operation. Such a system, should take account of other comparable work in Tanzania in order to contribute to the evolution of a natural system of land classification, and would be supported by a table of equivalence to other recognized systems.

18. (i) Reporting to Project management will be phased, within field operations, either on a map sheet or administrative or ecological unit basis as may be deemed most appropriate after initial field appraisal and local discussion, and may be supplemented by progress reports as deemed necessary by the Project;

(ii) Preliminary draft maps will be prepared in small numbers for ongoing use by the Regional Project, pending final map production.

(iii) Progress will be continuously reviewed by the Project Secretariat within which the Land Planning component will be organized. The objective should be to facilitate flexibility of approach and allow changes of emphasis where necessary in the light of results.

19. Final reporting will include the revised land classification system, with an economic interpretation of possible farming systems related to the land classification. It will also include proposals for costed field trials in support of the economic evaluation, and submit programs for the site selection and village land planning survey. Such final reports will be presented within 6 months of the completion of field work.

F. Staff and Costs

20. Staff. The basic team will comprise:

Team Leader

Soil Scientists (3)

Agriculturalist

Land-Use Planner

Agricultural Economist

Training Officer

Short term consultants will include a Forest Ecologist and a Grassland Ecologist, and others will be called in as required. Provision is made ANNEX 8 Page 7 for a total consultancytime of 18 months. Staff will be supported by an AdministrativeOfficer, Cartographer,and a Mechanic, and the team will be answerable to the Regional Authorities through the Project Coordinator.

21. Analyticalwork will be undertakenby the LRD laboratoryin England but the National Soils Laboratory at Mlingano will receive a proportion of samples in order to establish correlation of results between laboratories.

22. Costs. These are anticipatedas follows for a 3-year program, with certain costs (e.g. printing carrying over into a 4th financial year).

E Stg US$

(a) Air photos, mosaics 35 000 60 000

(b) Salaries and allowances including consultancies 409 000 695 000

(d) Vehicles 70 000 119 000

(e) Report and Map production 15 000 25 500

(f) Accommodation (construction/renting) 80 000 136 000

(g) Operating and logistics costs 50 000 85 000

(h) Local staff* 48 000 81 600

Total base cost 757 000 1287 100

(i) Contingencies

Physical 75 700 128 710 Price 146 470 249 000

Total 979 170 1664 810

* Includes cost for labourers and other locally recruited staff including a mechanic. ANNEX 8 Appendix 1

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAJ. DEVFLOPNENT PROJECT

Land-Use Planning

Implementation and Staffing Schedules and Disbursement Schedule

1. The operations of the LRD team undertaking the Land-Use Planning component is illustratedin the following diagram:

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Preliminary Organi- zation

Regional Mapping, 1/250,000 (Report on completion)

Site Selection x Mapping, 1/50,000 (Reportingevery 6 months to mid 4th year, then every 3 months)

Land-Use (Farm Team 1 level) Planning, 1/10,000 Team 2 (Reportingevery 2 months) Team 3

Team 4

Training x The necessity for this work will be decided on completion of the Regional Mapping. It is assumed presently that if needed, it will concern the areas of less priority than those requiring 1/10,000 mapping.

2. The proposed Staffing Schedule is shown in the following diagram: ANNEX 8 Appendix 2

Proposed Staffing Schedule

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Team leader - - -

Soil Sci. 1

Soil Sci. 2

Soil Sci. 3

Agriculturist

Land-Use Planner

Agric. Econ.

Forest Ecologist

Grass Ecologist

Training Officer

Admin. Officer - .- -

Cartographer_ _

No. in field in each quarter 0 2 9 8 1110 9 710 999 7 7-2 2 2 2 2

provisional leave periods

preparatory work in UK

3. Disbursements of costs are expected to be as follows: ANNEX 8 Appendix 3

|ear1 Year 2 | Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total Item US$d TSh US$ TSh US$ TSh US$ TSh US$ TSh US$ TSh- '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 '000

|Air photos 17 43 - - 68 128 141 357 - - 561 1059 Salaries & Allowances 139 243 229 85 7 (Expatriates) 1154 2017 1901 697 477 6246 Salaries & Allowances 35 61 61 61 6T 219 (Counterparts) 295 505 505 505 505 2315 Equipment 51 25 9 8 423 208 75 _ 70 776 Vehicles 80 15 24 235 144 664 125 199 _ 210 1198

,Report & Map Production - 5 42 15 115 6666 8 299

.Accomodation* 136 - - - b 1129 - - - - 1129 Operating'& logistics 17 26 26 25 I7 I - costs _ 141 216 216 210 141 924 Local Staff 1_4 27 27 28 - 28 124 116 224 224 232 232 1028 Total 489 445 391 206 272 1803 4063 3694 3245 1710 2262 14974 Physical ContinTgncies 49 45 39 18 27 178

______406 374 324 150 226 1480 Price Contingenc'ies S 59 73 103 74 127 436

______492 610 856 614 1060 3632 Tota1 Sg7s 563 533 426 2417

TSh _ 4961 4678 4425 2474 3548 20086

*Assumes provi±sicn of 6 wooden prefabricated units. ANNEX 9

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Project Organization, Monitoring and Evaluation

A. Project Organization Para. 1

Chart, WB 16562: Project Organization and Regional Organization

B. Project Monitoring and Evaluation Para. 6

Purpose Para. 6 Definitions Para. 7 Monitoring and Evaluation in the Project Para. 8 Responsibilities Para. 9 Methodology Para. 10 Timing, Reporting and Work-Schedule Para. 14 Staffing and Costs Para. 16 Variation Para. 17

Appendix 1: Project Headquarters Staff Qualifications and Terms of Reference

Appendix 2: Monitoring and Evaluation: Work Schedule

Appendix 3: Implementation Schedule

ANNEX 9 Page 1

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Project Organization, Monitoring, and Evaluation

A. Project Organization

1. The Project is designed to supplement and complement ongoing developments in Tabora Region, and to strengthen the Regional authorities' capacity, not only to undertake current Project and Project-related activities, but also to plan for and handle future investments whether made through a second-phase Region-wide Project or by the incorporation of components of national projects within Tabora.

2. The Project organization is therefore designed to fit in with and use the existing Regional organization. This is shown in Chart, WB 16562, below.

3. Control of the Project and the planning which will arise from it will be by the Regional Planning Office, headed by the Regional Planning Officer (RPO). The RPO has responsibilities which extend beyond the Project, and his office would therefore be strengthened by the recruitment of a Pro- ject Coordinator (PC); who would be the chief executive of the Project; a Financial Controller (PFC); and an Evaluation Officer (PEO); each with support staff. One of the two latter would be designated Deputy Project Coordinator. This team would be responsible for coordinating Project activities, for procurement, and for financial and Project staff control. In view of the difficulties of communications with Dar es Salaam and to reduce unwanted absences from the Region of the Project management, a Project Expeditor would be recruited and posted to Dar es Salaam to assist in procurement and coordination between Ministries, Parastatals and other organizations concerned with the Project. Outline qualifications and Terms of Reference for the PC, PFC and PEO are given in Appendix 1. At completion of the Project, the duties of the PC and PEO would be absorbed by the Regional Planning Office, the latter probably heading a new unit, and those of the PFC by the Regional Financial Officer.

4. A Project Planning Unit, headed by the RPO, with the Project Coordinator as secretary, would meet regularly to plan Project activities and ensure coordination between Project components and their integration with non-Project operations. The unit would be drawn from the following, with other staff coopted as the need arose:

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ANNEX 9 Page 3

*Regional Planning Officer (RPO) ...... (Chairman)

Project Coordinator (PC) ...... (Secretary)

Evaluation Officer (PEO)

Financial Controller (PFC)

*Regional Water Engineer (RWE)

*Regional Engineer (RE)

Senior Roads Engineer (PRE)

*Regional Natural Resources Officer (RNRO)

Forest Officer (PFO)

*Regional Agricultural Development Officer (RADO)

Agricultural Planning Officer (PAP)

*Regional Livestock Development Officer (RLDO)

Livestock Specialist (PLS)

Head, Land-Use Planning Team (PLP)

Of these, the six Regional staff (marked *) are also members of the Regional Development Committee, to which the Project Coordinator and other Project staff would be invited as needed to ensure full integration of Project and other Regional development planning.

5. Project execution would generally be through the existing Regional and/or District Organization as appropriate to the component, with the technical assistance and guidance of Project - provided personnel. Details are given in the relevant Annexes. Project funds would be channelled to the appropriate functional manager or Project component head who would be responsible for maintaining separate, fully supported, accounts of use of Project funds under the supervision of the Financial Controller. ANNEX 9 Page 4

B. Project Monitoring and Evaluation

Purpose

6. The information on which this Project is based is, in many areas, inadequate in quantity and quality. The Project is also being established at a time of major changes in the organization of the rural sector in Tanzania, and involves use of untried institutions and systems. Moreover, the major purpose of the Project is to provide a capacity for the Region to carry out a further series of Projects or Programs, based on infrastructure, organizations, and information established in this Project. To these ends, provision is made in the Project for staff, equipment and funds to ensure that Project progress and impact can be assessed, both to provide ongoing guidance to the National and Regional policy makers, Project management, and others concerned in running a Project which, by its nature, must be flexible; and to supplement the major planning components within the Pro4ect -- the Land Use/Capability Plan and the Water Master Plan -- to provide a solid basis for future investments.

Definitions

7. "Monitoring" and "Evaluation" are expressions frequently used loosely or interchangeably. For clariLy Lhey are here given specific meanings, related to their separate objectives, and in particular, their end-use. Monitoring is the continuous assembly and analysis of information:

(a) which will facilitate operational decisions by Project management at all levels, and provide a warning of departures from schedules and targets;

(b) which is requi,red f-or normal Bank supervision; and

(c) which will keep departments of Government and other agencies (including bilateral aid agencies) informed of Project progress.

Evaluation is a continual process defined as the assembly and analysis of data on the Project required:

(a) to confirm or establish the Project-base-line;

(b) for preparation of a second phase project or Regional components of national projects;

(d) to assist post-Project evaluation. ANNEX 9 Page 5

Both monitoring and evaluation require appropriateand timely reporting of analyzed results, and it is clear that there may be some grey area between the two: that evaluation is a further, deeper stage in the collection and analysis of monitoring data.

Monitoring and Evaluation in the Project

8. Monitoring will be the first priority of the Project Evaluation Unit (PEU). It embraces the reporting of physical progress of the Project: for example, kilometers of roads constructedand maintained, reported by category; the number of water sources installed or buildings erected; plans agreed and drawn up; nurseries established;areas of crop or trees established; numbers of stall units set up; inputs used; and farmers reached in extension or training. Reports will also be made on intermediate stages of development,including procurement of Project materials, and on expendituresmade. Analysis in these reports should relate material consumption to constructionand breakdowns of unit costs as measures of Project efficiency. Monitoring will further embrace recording of the efficiency of non-Project services which bear on Project performance, and the recording and analysis of readily observable and quantifiable changes which may be attributableto the Project. 1/ Such changes will normally have to be of a "stock" nature -- e.g. counts of cattle, improved housing, areas cultivated-- unless there is a routine and reliable check on "flows" -- such as non-consumableproduce sold to a monopsonist,school attendance,or results of health checks at clinics, etc. Other "flow" data measuring Project changes -- incomes, expenditures,crop yields, consumption,labor use -- are extremely difficult and costly to collect and analyze, and should, when needed, be obtained in more detailed evalua- tions 2/ of the Project impact which, in particular, aim to reveal how the Project is making itself felt, looking beyond the immediate changes, and analyzing if and how this performance could be improved upon.

1/ A distinction is sometimesmade between Project "inputs" and "outputs," being respectivelythe immediate Project investmentsand activities,and their immediate result; and between Project "effects" and Project "impact," being respectivelythe 1st and 2nd order of Project-inducedchanges. Thus increasedwater consumptionor adoption of a new crop might be 'effects,' and the consequent improved health or enhanced incomes the 'impact.' Under this classification,monitoring would measure inputs and outputs (essentially a reporting function) and some effects. However, some 'effects' such as crop yield changes are not readily measurable and require difficult and detailed study which is more properly the task of evaluation. Generally the line between the categories is a grey one, and the importantpoint is that there is recognized to be a hierarchy of results.

2/ Or avoided by use of appropriateproxy variables. ANNEX 9 Page 6

Responsibilities

9, The tasks of monitoring and evaluation should be alloted to dif- fereiut Project entities as may be appropriate to the type of information to be assembled and analyzed. Recording of physical progress will rest with the functional managers who will normally report directly to the Project Coordina- tor. Project expenditures, progress on procurements, and stores situations will be the responsibility of the Financial Controller, to whom functional managers responsible for Project expenditures will report. Other data on physical progress, on operations of non-Project entities, and on selected stock variables used as measures of Project effects, will fall within the direct purview of the Project Evaluation Officer (PEO). All other evaluation of Project effects and impact, and clarification or development of baseline data, will be by ad hoc "special studies," funded by the Project, and carried out by the University of Dar es Salaam (in particular, the Economics Research Bureau), or individual specialists or consultants, under direction of the PEO. The PEO will have responsibility for controlling, and supervising the adequacy of all monitoring and evaluation activity in accordance withi the requirements of Project Management, the Bank, co-financers, and Government. This should not, however, require the channeling of routine reporting and accounting data through PEO. The relationship between the components of monitoring and evaluation and responsibility for them may be summarized diagramatically:

Tasks Classification Responsibility

Report on inputs; Report on output (physical progress); MONITORING Functional Units Account of expenditures; stores; AUA-

Readily rmeasured Project processes and effects; Veriflcation of underlying Project Evaluation assumpt i ns; Unit EVALUATION Analysis of Project processes; Impact of Project components; Verification of assumptions; Special Studies by Analysis experience for EX-POST EVALUATION Consultants, the future planning. Economic Research Bureau (ERB) and others. ANNEX 9 Page 7

Methodology

10. The methodology for collecting,analyzing and presenting monitoring and evaluation data will be the responsibilityof the PEO. This will vary according to item. Only broad guidelines can be offered here, but IDA expertise can be made available at Project effectivenessto assist in select- ing appropriatetechniques. The following are pointers:

(a) The purpose and end-users of any informationrequirement should be clearly and precisely defined in advance; the approach to collection,analysis and reporting should reflect these as well as resource constraints;

(b) Timeliness is all important. Monitoring data must be available on time and with sufficient frequency to assist management in running the Project; key base-line data should be assembled before the Project impact is felt; and studies in anticipationof 2nd phase developments will usually need to be completed, analyzed, and reported within 3 1/2 years of Project effectivenessif they are to be useful in designing later investments;

(c) The imaginativeuse of proxies to minimize the need for collection of "flow" data, and correct specificationof minimum sample sizes where sampling is an appropriate approach, are essential for resource conservation;

(d) Analysis and reporting are the difficult parts of monitoring and evaluation: the resources available-- in quantity and quality -- for these tasks will govern the amount of collection attempted and the approach to collection;

(e) Simplicitywhich does not imply superficialityshould be the key note.

11. In developing the overall design of data collection for either monitoring or evaluation,the PEO should review the following elements:

(a) specificationof the objectives of the information collection,including identificationof the end- users;

(b) the study design or approach to informationcollection proposed;

(c) the questions to be posed to obtain the necessary data, and which would be included in a questionnaire,or be used as the basis for informal questioningor for observation. This should include questions to test the internal consistencyof answers; ANNEX 9 Page 8

(d) the sampling design, suited in size and procedures to local conditions and the resources available;

(e) the pre-testing procedures including the approach and timing;

(f) the organization of fieldwork including recruitment and training of enumerators, transport and other support services, and supervision;

(g) data management including checking, coding and tabulation procedures, and processes for dealing with missing data;

(h) method of analysis;

(i) level of analysis required;

(j) reporting of study results including forms of presentation appropriate to each decision-making end-user, and corrective actions to be taken.

12. These elements in fact interact and the choice of overall design will be an iterative process in which the design should be reviewed continuously against the study objectives. For example, logistic and other field conditions may influence the study design, question list, and sampling; the data management and analysis resources will certainly influence the design elements, and indeed, because these activities most frequently are bottlenecks, it should be general practice to consider constraints on analysis capacity and reporting requirements before settling the design of data collection. This circularity is demonstrated in the following diagram: Available Data; On-Going Reporting, ) Monitoring or Evaluation ) jectives of Collection

Reporting Require > 2 Study Design

Level of / Frame of Questions Analysis -

Methods of 4/ Sample Design Analysis Pre-Testing/X of Data Management 7 Methodology Systems

Field Work and Logistics ANNEX 9 Page 9

13. Available data gathering techniques range from recording the per- ceptions on Project actions and influences of formal committees or informal groups drawn from the target population; the use of enumerators for case studies or indepth interviews without attempting to establish statistical validity; through to systematic quantitative information-gathering techniques within valid sample frames, including wide-ranging opinion surveys of greater or lesser depth, or surveys with repeat visits at intervals appropriate to the subjects' recall capacity, and over a period sufficient to capture change over time.

Timing, Reporting and Work-Schedule

14. It follows from its objectives that at least the basic Project Evaluation Unit should be on-site by Project effectiveness and that continuity in it should be maintained throughout the Project development. Reporting of monitoring data to management should probably be monthly and at the least every quarter, and every second quarter to supervision missions, whilst progress on evaluation studies, although continuously assessed by the Evalua- tion Officer, could be done annually.

15. A tentative work-schedule is at Appendix 2.

Staffing and Costs

16. The Project Evaluation Unit will be headed by a qualified social scientist, preferably an agricultural economist, with experience of field work in Africa. Provision is made for international recruitment to this post for the initial 3 years and for 18 months overlap with a Tanzanian counterpart to ensure continuity (see para. 14). The PEO will be supported by a staff of qualified Research Assistants and Senior Enumerators. The Research Assistants will organize field work, analyze data and draft summary reports, and will run training courses for enumerators who will be recruited locally on a short-term basis and will operate under the supervision of the Senior Enumerators. Provision is also made for necessary transport and equipment, and for a fund from which special studies will be financed. Details are given in Annex 10, Table 2.

Variation

17. As the number of Regional and National projects in Tanzania with an agricultural and rural development focus increases, the individual project capabilities in monitoring and evaluation should be reviewed, and an attempt should be made to centralize and unify the evaluation process and provide a national capability for quality control and guidance on data gathering and analysis (This will particularly apply to the Evaluation function, it being anticipated that monitoring, as a management tool, will normally remain within the Project organization). The organization of monitoring and evaluation and the functional division of responsibilities in the Tabora Project will be reviewed and modified as necessary when such a reorganization takes place. ANNEX 9 Appendix 1 Page I

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Project Headquarters Staff Qualifications and Terms of Reference

Project Coordinator:

Duties - The chief executive officer of the Project, responsible to the Regional Planning Ofifcer (RPO) for ensuring the smooth running of the Project; the coordination of the operations of the various functional departments concerned; the procurement of materials and inputs, and recruitment of staff; and ensuring the provision of local funds. He 1/ will advise the RPO, and through him the Regional Development Director, on policy matters effecting the Project; will ensure timely availability of data required for supervision of the Project by the Association and bilateral donor(s); and will do all such things as may be needed to implement the Project efficiently.

Terms of service - The Project Coordinator will be recruited for a tour of duty of 30-36 months excluding leave earned at a rate to be agreed, under a contract which will commence not later than Project effectiveness and which is expected to be renewed for a similar period. The incumbent will be posted to Tabora town, and will be provided with appropriate housing and duty transport. Remuneration, travel and allowances will be agreed on a personal basis, subject to the approval of the Association.

Qualifications - The Project Coordinator will have proven experience in Project management, preferably in Africa, of a type relevant to the Tabora Project. The incumbent will probably be between 35 and 45 years of age, and will probt;,blyhave a University degree or diploma. A good knowledge of English is essential and ability in Swahili would be advantageous. However, drive, i½magination,organizational and logistical ability, and management will be the overriding requirements, and will require the approval of the Association.

Project Financial Controller:

Duties - Responsible to the Project Coordinator for all matters concerninig the procurement of materials, reimbursements, local Project funding, and Project expenditures, and for the proper documentation and accounting for all such transactions including the maintenance of books of accounts by the Project and by functional managers acting as spending

1/ The use of tlte masculine form in this Annex should in all cases be taken to include the feminine form. ANNEX 9 Appendix I Page 2 departments,and adequate records of stores by all Project entities. He will advise the Project Coordinatorof all policy and other matters effecting the accounting of funds and materials, and be responsiblefor the supervision and control of his staff.

Terms of service - The Financial Controller will be recruited for a tour of duty of 30-36 months excluding leave earned at a rate to be agreed, under a contract which will commence not later than Project effectiveness and which may be renewed for a similar period. The incumbentwill be posted to Tabora town, and will be provided with appropriatehousing. Renumeration, travel and allowanceswill be agreed on a personal basis, and approved by the Association.

Qualifications- The Financial Controllerwill hold an internationally recognized qualificationin accounting and have not less than 5 years practical experience of a type directly relevant to the Project. This should preferably include stores control. Familiaritywith Bank Group procurementprocedures and experience in Africa would be advantageous. The qualificationsand experience of the Financial Controller selected will have been approved by the Association.

Project Evaluation Officer:

Duties - Responsible for the organizationof collection,analysis and reporting of monitoring informationfor Project management, and for similarlypreparing evalautiondata on Project impact includingas necessary, the design and supervisionof studies undertaken by consultantsor other non-Project entities. If an expatriate,to train a Tanzanian counterpart.

Terms of service - Recruited for a tour of duty of 36 months with residence in Tabora town, on salary, allowance and leave conditions,com- mensurate with qualificationsand experience,negotiable with the incumbent and approved by Association. It is anticipatedthat the PEO will hand over his responsibilitiesto a qualifiedTanzanian counterpartwho would have satisfactorilyworked alongsidehim for a period of not less than 18 months by the handover: but alternativelya second 36 month contract could be negotiated. Housing and duty transportwould be provided.

Qualifications- The Project Evaluation Officer would probably hold a higher degree in one of the social sciences, and would have had field experience of the collection and analysis of data. Preferenceswould be given to candidateswith experiencewith smallholdersin Africa and to those with agriculturaleconomics or economics and statistical training at post graduate diploma, MA, or PhD level. He would be imaginativeand capable of working with staff at all levels, and the appointmentwould be subject to the approval of the Association. ANNEX 9 Appendix 2 Page 1

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Monitoring and Evaluation: Work Schedule

1. Details of the Project Evaluation Unit's work schedule will be worked out in agreement between the Regional Planning Officer, the Project Coordinator, and the Project Evaluation Officer, with assistance, as needed, by the Association. The following suggests major components of the tasks. The work load will be allocated by PEO between functional managers, the Evaluation Unit, and special studies carried out under his direction and general supervision. The major task of the PEO will, however, be to ensure adequate, timely, monitoring data is available to Project management.

Familiarization, recruitment and training

2. Recruitment of the PEO is expected to be completed by 1st July 1977. He should immediately assist in recruitment of his Research Assistant and Senior Enumerators, and would spend the first 2 months on familiarization with Tabora Region and work going on in Kigoma and Mwanza/Shinyanga Regions, and setting up staff training.

Base-line survey

3. In the 3 months, August - October, a base-line survey of the selected Project villages and a sampling of villages not included in the Project should be designed and carried out: this should include, but need not be limited to:

a census of families by age, sex, and occupation. This should establish the relationship between households, families, and the farming unit;

a sample census of land holdings, cropping patterns, livestock, tools and implements;

a sample census of farm/household dwellings, storage, and domestic hardware;

a questionnaire survey of marketing, and labor and input use and sources;

a village survey on water; access; storage; retail shop; school, health and other social service facilities; and village organization. ANNEX 9 Appendix 2 Page 2

Monitoring

4. This will comprise:

(a) Reporting on critical phases (ordering,design, shipping, delivery, etc.) by component, of inputs:

Building construction- houses, workshops;

Installationof weighbridgesand dips;

Procurement of vehicles, road equipment, planning equipment, other stores;

Procurement of farm inputs, tree seeds, road and watersupply materials;

Staff recruitment:

Training programs;

Nursery establishment;

Discussionswith village committees;

Trials establishment.

Contracts with consultants;

(b) Reporting physical achievements,outputs:

Kilometersof roads constructedor reconstructed, by class;

Kilometers of road maintained,and/or improved;

Provision of village storage;

Area covered by Land-Use Plan, by stage;

Area covered by Water Master Plan, by stage; ANNEX 9 Appendix 2 Page 3

Attendance at staff or farmer training sessions;

Farmer contacts, numbers of adopters (households);

Village plans completed;

Area covered by Tsetse survey;

Tree seedlings delivered, area of plantation developed, survival rates, growth rates;

Credit granted, recovered;

Input delivery levels;

Water point maintenance completed and reports on status;

Expenditures by component;

Provision of counterpart funds;

Vehicle mileages; days off-road;

Trials completed.

Evaluation

5. Included in the in-depth measurement of Project effects will be:

Areas under crops and their changes;

Adoption of improved practices by farmers;

Trial results and their analysis;

Farmers crop yields and their changes;

Cattle dippings by number and tick counts;

Offtake numbers, weight;

Liveweight gains;

Changes in road useage (vpd); ANNEX 9 Appendix 2 Page 4

6. Evaluationwill also be required to assess the validity of implicit and explicit assumptionswithin the Project and exogenous factors influencing performance:

Input and Output prices;

Market availability;

Equipment capacitiesand down-time;

Labor productivity;

Farmer reaction and response;

Weather conditions;

Political influences including effectivenessof the village, cooperativeand parastatal organizations.

7. A start would also be made, largely by use of proxies and indicators, in measuring Project impacts which will be the main concern of ex-post evaluation;

Farmer incomes and expenditurepatterns and changes;

Nutritional status changes;

Soil condition changes;

Farmers' attitudes;

Ecological impact of the Project;

Availabilityof planning data and planning and implementationcapacity in post-Projectperiod.

8. The unit will provide the expertise to assist Government in the preparation of a project completion report, in consultationwith the Association, within 6 months of the completion of disbursementsunder the Project. The report will review the implementationof the Project and its impact on the Region.

ANNEX 9 Appendi. 3

TANZANIA TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE

1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 II~~~~~~~~~~ ~ 1 1I ~~' I 6 7 o I

A. ADVANCE CONTRACTING

.. i.. SECuR b *ETARIA r>o TSTEFFIF VhICLSmANOEUPET-. SIrAOO4. App. _, El - ! (NB 2-U MONTHS' HOTEL OS OTHER ACCOMEDATION NEEDED POD EH iTSAF

WATERMASTER PLAN PA PEAAIOI.OA AIDA

B. PHOJECT-PERIOD CONTRACT NG

OTHERVEHICLES& E'UIPMENT ...... STODECONSTRUCTION INPLTOHDERO .- .. 1 -…1 VET CENTER DIP CONSTRULCTION

WATERSUPPLY MATERIALS L HOADS TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE SUKI

LAND OSEPLANNING ILHDI PLANNING OP EXECUTION MORILISATION I ADVERTISING FIREVEWEOP BIDSIAPPLICATION

PERIOD

CDE DNTRECTION LIV ERY COMPLETION/ OPERATIONAL PERIOD

CI COMIPNENT IMPLEMINTEATION

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

PRODUCTION VILLAGES (121 Cool ;~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ IP I /NG/COND [STRCTINi LIVESTOCK DEEVELOPMENT

VILLAGE DEVELEPMENT

NZEGAIIUENGA 16_ M10MH0 ZONE 0 P6E r FATTENING PROGRAM

TOETUE SURVEY < TSETDD CLEDARANCE......

WVATERSGPPLY

PLANNING AND DESIGN UCT10ON DESIGNED SCHEMES CONSTERUCTIEN

HOADS NETWORK ROADSPEAATN PERATION ..... HETTERMENT [ INCREMENTAL MAINTENANCE 0..RATION ACCESS HOADS I'.....

FUELWOODUDEVELOPMFNT o NURSERY DEVELOPMENT ' VILLAGE BLOCK DEVELOPMENT .. …-

CANT UJSEPLANNING

REGIONAL MAPPING .-.

VILA AEAITE MAPPING

AN.-USC PLANT, REPORTSI TRAIN ING

MONITORING&A EVALUETION . .

PEO,CC1 PERIOD World B-k --(URRU

ANNEX 10

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Project Cost Estimates

Table 1 - Summary by Component

Table 2 - Project Secretariat

Table 3 - Agricultural Development Component - Costs

Table 4 - Livestock 4a - Tsetse Survey and Control 4b - Regional Livestock Development Services

Table 5 - Water Supply

Table 6 - Cost Estimates

Table 7 - Forestry

Table 8 - Summary by Type of Investment

Table 9 - Vehicle Costs (excludingRoads)

Table 10 - Equipment Costs (excludingRoads component)

Table 11 - Buildings & Civil Works

Table 12 - Technical Assistance Cost

Table 13 - Local Salaries

Table 14 - Vehicles & Equipment Costs: Roads Component TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Cost Estimates

Summary by Component (TSh'OO)

Foreign Exchange Component Reference Year 1 2 3 4 5 Total % Amount

TOTAL PROJECT SECRETARIAT

Implementation 'Unit Table 2 5,202 1,210 1,210 1,210 1,210 10,042 61 6,078 Evaluation Unit Table 2 1,308 1,061 994 1.011 994 5,368 57 3,047

Sub-Total 6.510 2.271 2 204 2 221 2.204 15,410 59 9.125

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT Table 3 2,905 2,343 3,862 5,784 7,598 22,482 75 16,853

LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT Table 4 3,378 2,758 3,358 3,631 2,307 15,432 46 7,11.2

TOTAL WATER SUPPLY

Water Master Plan Table 5 5,000 5,500 - - - 10,500 76 7,980 Water Planning & Design Table 5 828 707 643 573 220 2,971 67 2,003 Water Construction Table 5 2,569 12,440 4,886 6,258 5.902 32,054 21,366

Sub-Total 8,397 18,647 5,529 6,831 6.122 45,525 69 31_349

ROADS Table 6 10,444 5,698 5,236 4,410 3,374 29,162 69 20,154

FORESTRY Table 7 333 246 243 374 244 1,440 40 574

LAND-USE PLANNING Annex 8 App. 1 4,063 3,694 3,245 1,710 2,262 14,974 75 11,230

TOTAL BASE COSTS 36,030 35,657 23,677 24,950 24,111 144,425 67 96,397

Contingencies:

Physical Tables 2-8 3,515 3,328 2,163 2,356 2,151 13,513 71 9,639 Price Tables 2-8 4,900 6,351 6,341 8,847 10,643 37,082 69 25,700

TOTAL PROJECT COSTS 44.445 45,336 32,181 36,153 36_905 195,020 6a 131,736

o->. o t,

10 ANNEXtO Table 2 TANZANI

TA PRARURoL DEVcLOprENT PROJECT

ProiRc 3 Secretariatr1 4 2 5 Tot1 oeign Reference Veer 1 2 3 4 5 Total Exchange For2g1 ExhageM onn h TSh'000 Ui$'000

A. TMPLBMETATION UNIT

Capital Cost

Radio & Teleco,nication aquirent Table 10 15 - - - _ 150 85 128 15 Four-Wheel Drive Table 9 124 1/ - - - - 124 85 105 13 Technical Assistance Table 12 1,020 1,020 1,020 1,020 1,020 5,100 75 3,823 461 Hoe.ing 2/ Table 11 3 848 _, - 3 848 43 1,658 200

Sob-Total 5,142 1.020 1.020 1.020 1.020 9 222 5,716 689

Operating Cotts

Vehicle running & maintenance 40 80 80 80 80 360 75 270 32 Building maintenance - 70 70 70 70 280 20 56 7 Office maintenance 20 40 40 40 40 180 20 36 4

Sub-Total 60 190 190 190 190 820 362 43

TOTAL IMPLEMENTATION UNIT 5,202 1,210 1,210 1,210 1,210 10,042 6,078 732

B. EVALUATION UNIT

Capital cost

Poor-Wheel Drive Table 9 62 1/ 62 1/ - - - 124 85 105 13 Office Equipnent Table 10 75 25 - _ _ 100 75 75 9 Rousing Table 11 338 - - - - 338 40 135 16 Bicyclee Table 9 6 - _ 6 85 5 0.6 Motorcycles Table 9 17 - - 17 - 34 85 29 4 Technica1 Aseistance (PEO) Table 12 350 350 350 5 350 1.750 75 1t313 158

Sub-Tota1 848 437 350 367 350 2.352 1,662 200,6

Operating Coate

Counterpeet PEO Tlble 13 - 20 40 40 40 140 Reeearch Annietant 3/ Table 13 13.5 18 18 18 18 85.5 - Senior Ecuneretora 3/ Table 13 40,5 54 54 54 54 256.5 Statietical Assistant, Table 13 27 36 36 36 36 171 Enuneratore 3/ Table 13 67.5 90 90 90 90 427.5 Clerke Table 13 13.5 18 18 18 18 85.5 Dtivera Table 13 8 8 8 8 8 40 Special Studies Fund Table 8 250 250 250 250 250 1,250 75 940 113 Vehicle running 1 maintenance 40 80 80 80 80 360 75 270 33 Outside anelysis Table 8 - 50 50 50 50 200 - 175 22

Sub-Tota1 460 624 644 644 644 3,016 1,385 168

TOTAL EVALUATION UNIT 1,308 1,061 994 1,011 994 5,368 3,047 368

TOTAL NEAD0UARTERS (Base C00t) 6,510 2,271 2,204 2,221 2,204 15,410 9,125 1,100

CONTINGENCIES

phyeical 607 232 225 226 225 1,515 1,012 122 Price 898 348 541 750 966 3,503 2,080 251

TOTAL COST 8,015 2.851 2.920 3_197 229 20.428 122171,

I/ Includes space parts.

2/Includes 6 unite shich vould be financed under Credit for technicol staff to be hired for the Roads conponent. Also includes furniture end applionces.

3/ Including field lloances - 20% for Research Assistants and 507,for Senior and other enuneratos. EANZANIA

ZANORI RURAL DEVELPM ENT PR(I'ECT

Air folMtotal ThwrlVs1oRLŽs oŽmoszle z

_Year 31 _ Year 2 _vearY_ 3 Year 4 Year 5 P. E. F. E. 'Ir tsC-t No. Coat Na. CGSe Na. Cost Nlo, Cet Na. Coat Tatel A--tL Am-car CAPITAL COST (C.Sh¾) S' 00 T.Sh'0(0 G.3r 00 2.0, '000 T.Sh '000 T.Sh'000 F.E.Y T.9h. '000 US$ '000

Na. idians

2 2 30 Village Coop-stere a 25) 700/mn 6 210 6 210 6 210 6 21() 2 6 210 1,050 20 210 25 2 Grade B HRuse (75 a 1,050/a 2 158 - - - - - 158 20 32 4

Vehicles & Equipents

3 FPer Wheel Driv- 56,000 3 162 - - - 1. 54 - - 216 85 184 22 1 FPe Whbeel Deive (lang I-ae) 86,000 1 86 ------86 85 73 9 30 Bicyalea 60(l 4 2 6 4 8 ' 1! 7 - - 18 85 15 2 Tumbi-lab Equipment - - 1,000 - - - - _ _ 1,008 85 850 102 Spare ParIs for Vehicles + Eqaipaear 188 _ 1 9 _ 199 85 169 20 Sub-TTtal 1,806 215 216 280 210 T2727 127533

OPERATING COSTS

Salaries and Allewances

4 Expatriate Staff 350,000/year 4 1,050 4 1,400 C 1,400 4 1,400 4 1,400 8, 6so 75 4,988 01 2 Field Officer 15,000/year 2 23 2 30 2 30 2 30 2 30 143 - - 25 Assistant Field Officer 9,000/year 2 14 4 54 4 90 90 90 338 4 Driver 6,000/year - - 4 24 4 24 4 24 4 24 96 Allowa.nes, overtime at 10% (all except Yapatriate Staff) 5 9 9 14 14 51 - _

Maintenance of Building @ 2% p.a. 7 12 16 20 24 79 20 16 2 Maintenance of Equip-ent @ 10% p.a. IO 100 100 100 400 75 300 37 Vehicle operating cost @ 1.6/Ice (20,000 3cm/annum per vehicle) - 128 - 128 128 160 544 50 272 33

Sub-Tota1 1,099 1.757 1,797 1,806 1,842 8,301 1,576 673

FARM INPUTS .

Cotton - - - 142 - 709 - 1,418 - 2,127 4,396 85 3,736 450 Paddy _ _ 72 - 359 718 - 1,076 2,225 85 1,891 228 Sorghum - - - 107 - 526 - 1,052 - 1,578 3,263 85 2,774 334 Groundnuts - _ - 50 - 253 - 510 - 765 1.580 85 1_343 162

Sub-Total 371 1,849 3,698 5,546 11,464 - 9,744 1,174

Total 2,905 2,34:3 3,862 5,784 7,598 .2,8'49 75 16,853 2,031

Physical Contingescies 340 293 444 639 724 2,440 1,806 218 Price Contingencies 34L 330 911 1_946 3,368 e,896 74 5,103 _15

Grand Total 5,86 2,966_17 _8.369 11,690 31,828 74 23,762 2_864

I/ Based on Table 9, 10, 11, 12 of Anne. 2 PF! ANNEX10 Table 4

TANZANIA

TABORARURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Livestock (TSh'000)

Foreign Exchange Foreign Exchange Amount Reference year l 2 3 4 5 Total % TSh'000 USS000

CAPITALCOSTS

Buildings& Civil Works

Office A Stores Table 11 64.0 - - - - 64.0 40 25.6 3.1 Veterinary Centres Table 11 99.0 75.0 75.0 _ _ 249.0 20 50.0 6.0 Field Housing Table 11 80.0 80.0 80.0 - - 240.0 20 48.0 5.8 Temporarv field housing Table 11 60.0 - - - - 60.0 20 12.0 1.4 Housing, Grade A 1/ Table 1l 838.0 - - - _ 838.0 40 335.0 40.0 Dipa Table 11 195.0 195.0 195.0 - 585.0 20 117.0 14.1

Sub-Total 1.336.0 350.0 350.0 - - 2,036.0 587.6 70.4

Vehicle

Trucks (7 ton! Table 9 258.0 - 129.0 258.0 _ 645.0 85 548.3 66.1 Tractors 75 hp Table 9 86.0 - 86.0 172.0 85 146.2 17.6 Trailers Table 9 22.0 - 22.0 22.0 - 66.0 85 56.1 6.8 Water Boisers Table 9 60.0 - 60.0 - - 120.0 85 102.0 12.3 Mobile Veterinary Unit Table 9 86.0 - - 86.0 172.0 85 146.2 17.6 Four-.heel drive Table 9 270.0 - 54.0 324.0 - 648.0 85 550.8 66.4 Motorcycles Table 9 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 86.0 85 73.1 8.8 Spare Parts Table 9 120.0 2.6 42.3 106.0 15.4 286.3 85 243.4 29.3

Sub-Total 919.2 19.8 324.5 813.2 118.6 2.195.3 1,866.1 224.9

Equioment

office equipmeet & furniture Table 10 38.0 21.0 6.0 - - 65.0 75 48.8 5.9 Laboratory Equipment Table 10 98.0 15.0 15.0 - 128.0 75 96.0 11.7 Camping Equipment Table 10 20.0 - - - - 20.0 75 15.0 1.8 Sprayers Table 10 - 20.0 20.0 - - 40.0 75 30.0 3.6 Protective Clothing Table 10 - 6.0 - - - 6.0 85 5.1 0.6 Welghbridges Table 10 240.0 240.0 _ _ _ 480.0 85 408.0 49.1

Sub-Total 396.0 302.0 41.0 - - 739.0 602.9 02.7

Village Development - 190.0 630.0 780.0 410.0 2,010.0 10 201.0 24.2

Incremental W 200.0 80.0 200.0 290.0 770.0 -

Technical Assistance Table 12 350.0 700.0 700.0 700.0 350.0 2,800,0 75 2,100.0 253.0

TOTALCAPITAL COST 3.001.2 1.761.8 2.125.5 2,493.2 1_168.6 10.550.3 5,375.6 645.2

RECURRENTCOSTS

Salaries aed Wages Table 13 150.0 297.0 440.0 440.0 440.0 1,767.0 - - Allo-ances Table 19 47.0 96.0 122.0 122.0 122.0 509.0 - - - Vehicle Operating Costs 150.0 274.0 340.0 340.0 340.0 1,444.0 75 1,083.0 130.5 BuildiogMaintenance - 22.0 25.0 28.0 28.0 103.0 20 21.0 2.5 Equipment Maintenance - 22.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 100.0 75 75.0 9.0 Maintenance of Dams & Stock Handling Facilities 51.0 82.0 82.0 82.0 297.0 - - Vaccines, Drugs, etc. Table 8 31.0 70.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 401,2 85 341.0 ~ 41, Sub-Total 377.0 833.0 1.135.0 1.138,0 1.138,0 4.621.2 1.520.0 183.0

TRAINING

Post Graduate - 65.0 - - - 65.0 90 58.5 7.0 Technical - 32.5 32.5 - 65.0 90 58.5 7.0 Senior Staff ' 65.0 65.0 - _ 130.0 90 117.0 14.1

Sub-Total - 162.5 97.5 - _ 260.0 234.0 28.1

TOTALBASE COSTS 3,378.2 2,757,5 3,358,0 3.631,2 2,306,6 15,431.5 7.129.6 856.3

CONTINGENCIES

Physical 350.0 252.0 315.0 325.0 170.0 1,412.0 820.0 99 0 Price 463.0 430.0 762.0 1,057.0 803.0 3,515.0 1,815.0 219.0

TOTALCOST 4.191.2 3.439.5 4.435.o 5,013.2 3 20.358.5 9 764 6 1,174.3

1/ Includes furniture & equipment.

49NEX 10 Tabl. 4a

29. 0~~~~~~~~-00.101 h-i- -I 00'020>

2055191 0000A00%,~~~~~~~~~~~~mIonco-..24 Ott >0 2000 5002 .0 Coss - .ooO ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~oso0 0 0 1000.006 0Cr~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~17. "K' 201 10>00

- - 12 Cl .1 .6~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~2.- >0- oo - -

- 15.100~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. - 11.1C 11.0 - ~- ~ ~ ~- ~ ~ ~'00 ~C ~~~~~~C0' 15 00~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~j 00000000000050t. ~~~ ~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

-65 .0 ' 0-0t 2 .0 - - . '.100 8- 60.8 -i 0. .-- 6,,C.0 .C20 120-t.0'1 10.210. 14-o 1"00 '30- - -. C OO. -54- - 2 - 02 0 oO0Oooo.0 C'.r Og~~~~~~~~- s ,.0 1. 1. I 2.0~~~~~~~~~~~- .- ~~~~ 0 - - U0.0'o'.0 001 6.C~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1--1. 1. n-slIer. 0000-soles 22.0 1 oO.0 - - .'..0 - 51371 5. * 0000' 0.00 '0.0 1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

_____P.__ ,. 00.2 co.6 2.2 - 0. 0000,. 22. 2 1C NA-T.t~~~~~~~~~~~~l 170.~~~~~~~~~~~ 3~~~~~~, 17~~~~C

'070 4. If -o.l 000 CT 13:0 9- 2~~~~~~~~~~~~0.0063.000. 04_2 7.4- .0 00510rOPOTo!. 10920 000 '.0 ,~, 7 225.~~~~~~~~~IM1 7

28 02.0 '08.011. roo-booal ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~402.1463r..0

03. 3 7~~~~~~.0 0 ' . r 6~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~09.0 0 roOlgo- 0 07.0 0 ' '.0 o, C ~~~~~~ 4' ~- ~ ~~ ~~ ~~~~~~~~4r ' 0. 04 0 'C4C - 00.0 5. T ,,7-- k,,. 7 0 ~ 150 C 10

: 7- - 100.0 1.ltat"allnoon-o 0'~~~~~~~~P. - - 0.0 - ,12 -7o -

3- C7' 0 '5'OOlsOoootttoogn.'~~~~~~~~~iq - o - 6. 4.0 C 210.o hood 001's 0.0 020. 1.0 - 02~~~~~~~~~~~~~~li.0- C - 2 - 102. - 5. -0100.0 6 000''.0 1 ooCoo'05 p.O 0 - 0.0 -~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~3,17O5 8. ~

9-1 I D. .0.1176~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0

- .. 2o -, -2 I0 1.0 22 T000- -- t T. z 10,- i fi- - l- 2.

- - - I 1 20~~~~~tT erlrlool- .- 0.. 3 o 0 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- ~

12 0- A--- 03:T0.0 006 02010- 0 1- IO -0.80.fol 0In 0. 001.00 lOoso, I ~t-fr,, 0,020.00 ' nSl.5 2 075.5~t 0 s0-0 0000000oaOCraboo,ro.o00o0 10ss0s0r.Oloo0 OIlUs 0 'or'oldooonrl'oO oo..,15.Ooooro.ooon-00010 7' 0 50000'O o,,0s~. 005 -0 . 011,,r-t - l lo0-5

81011700~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~1

-oo1rOcc80EA aJa I'Oss.r-..0sgaraftor 2 A8>Aa "iALa eoro0BsO

c-t,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~'J ' ra.a.n'la roil ear earl 'arrO ar .tal mrs ~ j an3s4

4,I 4 . 90 - -- 2050 52I

'at- 'a'' ~~~~~~~~~~~3900 ~ ~~~~. 1.328.~~~828.0 - - 4 7

4 *Y12-I 1112'0 1314 12172 4

000 a a~~~~~~,. - - - 1700- - - 1 '7 11072 171 traaas ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~..0 38 8-7.8 ~ ~~~1 .0 ~ ~142.0 ~~67.0a -7- 515.2 28.2 20.2 818. 28. "0.01.0 888.8 8 7.0

0 trasilossI 08008 ½33 a.. 08540 41.5 513. 88.2 8.0.o 1,100 158.4

a 'OaataaoFa'r.'.t'oa"pa'e''.a 00 0a0' 1 87'~~~~~~11D0 1 ~ .' 5 0 - 300 .16 '1" 141.0

F'aO Fllceas 1~~ 3r40 ~ ~~~~~~. ~ ~~~~40G9. 2 60; .68 'r 3216.0 I A~~~~, i,1,1 3 11.0~~~~~~~lt 3 7a) 3 0 1 0r7 s 122.0 8A. 06.0 0 36. 3712. a aOtaOaa 6 060 - a a 4 4~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 4 ' .1 ~~a ~~~~~~0.01 0 ' 'I 3 1.24 I-Tate' 38.86.0 121.0 101.0 1'l 2 02 . 8~~~~80.8 aa -

0 trarali'lrrlaaraa '1.12 l aOsaOaaOee. ~f7.8-:. 40 . 67.0

0 I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-0 4O - 4 i

aOaa p. l.''"'' l 1 .a5l 5 84..

'.84.4 362.8 812 0 j~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~3, 133.0 .30840pFo a 350'??' 0~~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~33a0503- 3381.8R

120'~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~5a Z 3 "taft - 1 65.7 1 K22.2 - - . a a a 03..' 00~~~E5df110 10'4

1 F "rl 1112. 8183.2. ~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~1110.2 ~ ~~~~~~1248.2 ~ ~~~~~503.2 ~ ~~1L668.9,.1.0 3L17.; 0,.i0.

1/ Fr-id5aaf ~ia8ar---tof aa12atar-' and ot -sdoa fsaata'asiBt-e at Ia~'I f0..r ... a8dd finld asrrsp ra

0'.Iellrsinrot'3-etea''al-rf-t-l-- fis-- 4'3 ao8ntasatasaaaaa

21 4 otraoFaat ltrt8 ' 2lraaa,at0a as

0'br OE ara a a t ta a a t.i l t 81 t1. ld aar s r a l r 0. all slaaeRoa, a a a.,o 'a . e 81 O aat t b

TAN2ANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPffENT FROJECT

Water Supply

Cost Estimate (TSh 000)

Foreign Exchange FriaEnbseAso Reference Year 1 2 3 4 5 Total TSh'000 U0$xa 0o

A. WATER MASTER PLAN 5,000,0 5,500.0 - - _ 10,500.0 76 7,980.0 961.4

B. P LANNING AND DESIGI

Vehicles Table 9 248.0 186.3 62.1 62.1 _ 558.5 85 474.7 57.2 Sorvey & Field Equipment Table 10 100.0 - - - 100.0 75 75.0 9.0 Office Fqnfpsent & Furpiture Table 10 so.0 - - - - 5050 70 37.5 4.5 office Extension Table 11 50.0 - - - - 50.0 20 10.0 1.2 capatriate Salaries & Allowances Table 12 341.0 391.0 451.0 3t1.0 90.0 1,654.0 75 1,241.0 149.5 Local Salaries & Allowances Table 13 19,0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 339.0 - - Vehicle Operatilg Cost 20.0 50.0 50.0 51).0 500 220.0 75 165.0 19.9

Sub-Total 828.0 707.3 643.1 573.1 220.0 2,971.5 68 2.003.2 241.3

C. WATER SUPPLY CONS7TROCTION

Vehicles & Equipment Table 9 1,841.5 1,607.2 62.1 62.1 - 3,572.9 85 3,037.0 365.9 Construccion & Materials Table 31 290.0 8,600.0 2,432.6 3,868.4 3,859.0 19,050.0 85 16,200.0 1,951.8 Lahbo Table 13 100.0 1,400.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 1,500.0 6,000.0 . . - Eapatniate Salaries & Allowances Table 12 146.0 325.0 383.0 319.0 35.0 1,208.0 75 906.0 109.2 Other LoanI Salaries & Allosances Table 13 61.0 133.0 133.0 133.0 133.0 593.0 - - - Vehicle & Equip*ent Opersting Cost 130,0 375.0 375.0 375.0 373.0 2,630. 75 1.222.5 147.3

Sub-Total 2,568.5 12.440.2 4.885.7 6,257.5 5,902.0 32,053.9 48 21,365.5 2.574.2

TOTAL BASE COSTS 8,396.5 18,647.5 5,528.8 6,830.6 6,122.0 45,525.4 56 31,348.7 3,776.9

CONTINGENCTES

Phy5icsl 846.0 1,741.0 433.0 547.0 457.0 4,024.0 60 2,843.0 342.5 Price 964.0 3,643.0 1,592.0 3,020.0 3,555.0 12,774.0 56 9,625.0 1,159,6

TOTAL COST 102024.03.5 7553.8 1039.6 10.134.0 62323.4 43.816.7 5.279.0 _ __~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~F_

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Roads Component Cost Estimates (TSh'000)

Foreign Exchange Foreign Exchange Amount Year 1 2 3 4 5 Total 7 TSh'000 US$'000

CAPITAL COSTS

Equipment & Spares 7,476 - - 7,476 85 6,356 766 Technical Assistance 1,036 1,428 1,106 - - 570 75 2,678 323

Total Capital Costs 8,512 1,428 1,106 - - 11,046 9,034 1,089

RECURRENT COSTS

Operating Costs 1,540 3,500 3,360 3,640 2,786 14,826 75 11,120 1,340 Local Staff Salaries & Allowances 392 770 770 770 588 3,290 - - -

Total Recurrent Costs 1,932 4,270 4,130 4,410 3,374 18,116 11,120 1,340

TOTAL BASE COSTS 10,444 5,698 5,236 4,410 3,374 29,162 69 20,154 2,428

Physical Contingencies 940 427 413 441 340 2,561 - 1,714 207 Price Contingencies 1,708 1,666 1,974 2,142 1,890 9,380- 6,500 783

TOTAL COSTS 13,092 7,7 7623 6,_993 5 604 41,103 28,368 32418

* The housing items will not be financed under the U.K. Development Assistance Grant. I-.t' TANZANIA

TAFORA RFJRAL DhVEL(LESAENT PPOJTE(7T

Forestry TSh'000

Year Year Year Year Year Tital Foreign Foreign Exchange Amount 1 2 3 4 5 Exchange TSh'000 IJS$'000

Capital Costs

Civil Works Land Preparation 0.5 - - - - 0.5 Nursery Store 1.5 - - - - 1.5 - - Wall Construction 5.0 - - - - 5.0 40 2.0 0.2 Tank 2.0 - 2.0 -

Sub-total 9.0 - - - - 9.0 22 2.0 0.2

Vehicles Four-wheel Driv, 54.o - - 54.o - 108.0 85 91.8 11.1 Light Pick-up Truck 96.o - - 32,0 - 128.0 85 109.0 13.1 Motorcycles 17.2 - - 17.2 - 3L,4 85 29.3 3.5 Bicycles 1.7 - - 1.7 - 3 .4 85 3.0 .3 Spares Parts 25.0 - - 25.0 - 5o.0 42.5 5.1

Sub-total 193.9 - 129.9 - 323.8 '5 275.6 33.1

Equipment Fencing and Nursery Material 2.7 - - - - 2 --- - Water Pump and Engine 23.0 - 2. 85 19.6 2.4

Sub-total 25.7 - _- 25.7 76 19.6 2.4

Total Capital Costs 228.f - 129.9 - 358.5 83 297.2 35.7

Recurrent Costs

Salaries and Allowances 43.o 85.0 8s.0o 8s.0 87.o 383.0 - - - Fertilizer and Seeds 0.5 1.0 .0 1.0 1.0 4.5 85 3.8 0.s Polythene tulbes 0.7 1.0 J.5.' 1.5 .7 - - Equipment Maintenance - 0.* 7.2 7.2 7.2 ?8.8 75 21.6 2.6 Incremental Field Labor Co)sts 25.0 7(.0 1.0o 74 74.0 - - - Vehicle Operationl 3s5.0 7071~( 5. C 75.C 335.0 75 251.2 30.3

Total Recurrent Costs I0L.2 245.7 ?23,7 243.0 2.3.7 1,081.0 26 276.6 23.4

Total Base Costs 332.8 24'.7 243.7 3734 243.7 1,438.5 40 5 70 .8 i 9.1 Contingencies Physic al .() 3.0 0 '- 9.0 81.0 71 5 7' 4 7.0 Price 30 0 ' 4 7 108.0 86.o 3'?.0 54 180.0 01 7

To)talCo)sa 392.8 281.7 299.7 539.6 338.7 1 3852.5 44 811.2 97.8 TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Cost Estimates

Summary by Type of Investment (TSh'000)

Foreign Exchange Year 1 2 3 4 5 Total X Amount

Vehicles & Spares 3,222 1,591 454 1,128 118 6,513 85 5,543 Equipment 2,425 617 41 17 - 3,100 83 2,583 Buildings 5,949 560 560 210 210 7,489 35 2,635 Technical Assistance 3,257 4,186 4,304 4,170 3,245 19,162 75 14,373 Local Staff & Labor 657 2,528 2,851 2,856 2,856 11,748 - - Operation & Maintenance 442 1,386 1,494 1,501 1,538 6,361 64 4,060 Farm Inputs 31 444 1,952 3,800 5,649 11,876 85 10,089 Other - 553 807 980 700 3,040 14 435 Consultant Contract 5,250 5,800 300 300 300 11,950 76 9,095 Construction Material 290 8,600 2,433 3,868 3,859 19,050 85 16,200 Land-Use Plan* 4,063 3,694 3,245 1,710 2,262 14,974 75 11,230 Roads* 10,444 5,698 5,236 4,410 3,374 29,162 69 20,154

Total Base Costs 36,030 35,657 23,677 24,950 24,111 144,425 67 96,397 Contingencies Physical 3,515 3,328 2,163 2,356 2,151 13,513 71 9,639 Price 4,900 6,351 6,341 8,847 10,643 37,082 69 25,700

Total Project Costs 44,445 45,336 32,181 36,153 36,905 195,020 68 131,736

* Financed by U.K. Overseas Development Programme. 1 3

(D X

coH TANZANIA ANNEX 10 lable 9 TABORA RURAL DEVELOR5ENT PROJECT

Vehicle Costs (excluding Roads) (TSh '000)

Unit Cost Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Total TShs No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost

Project Secretariat

Four-wheel Drive 54,000 3 162.0 4 54.0 ------216.0 Bicycles 550 10 5.5 - - - _ - - - _ 5*5 Motorcycles 8,600 2 17.2 - - - - 2 17.2 - - 34.4 Spare Parts 8.0 ------8.0

Sub-total 184.7 62.0 o 17.2 - 263.9

Agricultural Development

Four-wheel Drive 54,000 3 162.0 - - 54.0 216.0 Four-wheel Drive - 86,000 1 86.0 ------86.0 (long wheel base Bicycles 5,500 4 2.0 6 4.0 8 5.0 12 7.0 - - 18.0 Spart Parts - 38.0 - 1.0 - 1.0 - 9.0 - - 49.0

Sub-total 288.o 5.0 6.o 70.0 - 369.0

Livestock Development

Lorries (7 ton) 129,000 2 258.0 - - 1 129.0 2 258.0 - - 645.o Tractors (75 h.p.) 86,ooo 1 86.o - - - - 1 86.o - - 172.0 Trailers 22,000 1 22.0 - - 1 22.0 1 22.0 - - 66.o Water Bowser 60,000 1 60.0 - - 1 60.o - - - - 120.0 Mobile Veterinary Unit 86,ooo 1 86.o - - - _ - _ 1 86.o 172.0 Four-Wheel Drive 54,000 5 270.0 - _ 1 5L.0 5 270.0 - - 648.o Motorcycles 8,60oD 2 17.2 - 17.2 2 17.2 2 17.2 - 17.2 86.o Spare Parts 86,o0o 1 120.^ - 2.6642.3 106.0 - 15.4 286.3

Sub-total 919.2 19.8 324.5 813.2 118.6 2,195.3

Water Supply

Four-Wheel Drive 54,000 8 432.0 6 324.0 2 108.0 2 108.0 - - 972.0 Lorries (10-15 tons) 200,000 5 1,000.0 5 1,000.0 - _ - - - 2,000.0 Tractors (25 h.p.) 43,000 2 86.o 2 86.o - - - - _ - 172.0 Spare Parts 116.0 94.0 16.2 16.2 - - 242.4

Sub-total 1,634.0 1,504.0 124.2 124.2 3,386.4

Reafforestation

Four-Wheel Drive 54,000 1 54.0 - - - - 1 54.0 - - 108.0 Light Pick-up Trucks 32,000 3 96.o - - - - 1 32.0 - - 128.0 Motorcycles 8,600 2 17.2 - - - - 2 17.2 - - 34.4 Bicycles 5,500 3 1.7 - - - - 3 1.7 - - 3.4 Spare Parts 25.0 - - 25.0 - - 50.0

Sub-total 193.9 - - 129.9 - 323,8

Total Base Costs 3,219.8 1,590.8 454.7 1,154.5 118.6 6,538.4 Physical Contingencies 322.0 159.0 46.0 115.0 12.0 654.0 Price Contingencies 390.0 275.0 121.0 427.0 55.0 1.268.0

TOTAL COSTS 3,931.8 2.024.8 621.7 1,696.5 185.6 8.460.4 ANNEX 10 Table 10

TANZANIA

TABORARURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Equipment Coats (excluding Roads component) (TSh'000)

Unit Cost Year I Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 TSh No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost Total

PROJECT SECRETARIAT

Radio Communication Equipment 50,000 3 150 150 Office Equipment 75 25 100 Furniture & Appliances 29,100 9 262 262

Sub-Total 487 25 - - _ 512

AGRICULTURALDEVELOPMENT

Tumbi Lab. Equipment 1.150 1! - - _ 1.150

LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT

Lab. Equipment (VIC) - - 68 - - - 68 other Lab. Equipment 15,000 2 30 1 15 1 15 60 Sprayers 20 20 - - 40 Camping Equipment 20,000 1 20 - - . 20 Equipment & Furniture 95 21 6 _ 122 Protective Clothing 6 - _ 6 Weighbridges 80,000 3 240 3 240 - - - 480

Sub-Total 453 302 41 1 796

WATERSUPPLY

Lorry Cra,e 250,000 1 250 1 250 500 Drilling Rig 50,000 1 50 - - _ 50 Concrete Plant 40,000 1 40 - - - - 40 Survey & Field Equipment - - 100 - - - 100 Office Furniture & Equipment 50 _ _ _ 50 Tools 40 - _ 40 Spare Parts 75 40 115

Sub-Total 605 290 - - 895

REAFFORESTATION

Fencing & Nursery Material _ 3 - 3 Water Pump & Engine 23 V -_ _ 23

Sub-Total 26 - 26

TOTAL BASE COSTS 2,721 617 41 - - 3,379 Physical Contingencies 272 62 4 - - 338 Price Contingencies 320 102 11 - - 433

TOTAL COSTS 3,313 781 56 - - 4.150

I/ Including spare parts. ANNEX 10 TANZANIA Table lLI

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Buildings & Civil Works

Unit Unit Cost Year 1 2 3 4 5 2 M No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost TOTAL

.IFADQUARTERS

Housing Grade A 150 390,000 9 3,510.0 - -- ______3,510.03 Housing ,rade R 75 78,800 4 315.0 ------315.0 Housing Grade A 338,000 1 _3830 - -- - -~ ------338.0

Sub-Total 4,163.0 4,163.0

AIRMICULTRAL DEVELOPMENT

Sousine Grade P 75 79,800 2 158.0 ------_ __ 158.0 V'llage Co-op Store 50 35,000 6 210.0 6 210.0 6 210.0 6 210.0 2 210.0 1,050.0

Sub-Total 368.0 210.0 210.0 210.0 210.0 1,208.0

LlT'ESTOCK

4 2 Central Offices and StOres I/ 00/m 64.0 ------64.0 2 ieterinary Tnvestigation Centers I 400/M 24.0 - ______24.0 Veterinary Centers 75,000 75.0 1 75.0 1 75.0 - -- _ __ 225.0 Field Housing 20,000 80.0 4 80.0 4 80.0 - __ _ __ 240.0 Tenporary Field Housing 6,ooo 60.0 - -- _ _ -_ _ __ 60.0 Housing Grade A 390,000 780.0 - -- _ __ _ -- _ __ 780.0 Cips 65,0oo 195.0 3 195.0 3 195.0 - -- - - 585.0 Rars 12,600 -- 7 88.2 16 201.6 16 201.6 9 113,4 604.8

Sub-Total 1,278.0 438.2 551.6 201.6 113.4 2.'82.8

WATER SUIPPLY

Office Extension 50.0 - - - - 50.0 Civil Works 290.0 8,600.0 2,433,6 3,868.4 3,859.0 19,050.0

Sub-Total 340.0 8,600.0 2,433.6 3,868.4 3,859.0 19,100.0

RPAFFORESTATTON

Lard Preparation 0.5 ------0.5 Nursery Store 1.5 - ______- -- 1.5 Well Construction 5.0 ------5.0 Water Tank 2.0 ------2.0

Sub-Total 9.0 ------9.0°

TOTAL BASE COSTS 6,158.0 9,248.0 2,845.2 4,280.0 4,182.4 26,713.6 Physical Contingencies 616.0 925.0 285.0 428.0 418.2 2,672.2 Price Contingencies 1,042.0 1,578.0 940.0 1,639.0 2,040,0 7,239.0

TOTAL COSTS 7,816.0 11,751.0 4,070.2 6,347.0 6,640,6 3 ANNEX 10 Table 12

TANZAN

TABORARURAL DEVEL4OPMENT PROJECT

Technical Assistance Cost (TSh' 000)

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Unit Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost Total

SECRETARIAT

Project Coordinator 350,000 1 350 1 350 1 350 1 350 1 350 1,750 Project Evaluation officer 350,000 1 350 1 350 1 350 1 350 1 350 1,750 Financial Analyst 320,000 1 320 1 320 1 320 1 320 1 320 1,600 Project Expeditor 350,000 1 350 1 350 1 350 1 350 1 350 1.750

Sub-Total 1.370 1.370 1 370 1,370 1,370 6,850

AGRICULTIIRALDEVELOPMENT

Agronomists 350,000 3 788 3 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 4,988 Training Officer 350,000 1 262 1 350 1 350 1 350 1 350 1,662

Sub-Total 1.050 1.40 1.400 1.400 1 400 6,650

LTVESTOCKDEVELOPMENT

Livestock Production Specialist 350,000 1 175 1 350 1 350 1 350 1 350 1,575 Tsetse Ecologist 350,000 1 175 1 350 1 350 1 350 1 350 1.575

Sub-Total 3.Q 700 700 700 700 3_150

WATER SUPPLY

Sanitary Engineer 36,000 2 48 2 72 2 72 2 48 - - 240 Construction Engineer 36,000 - - 1 36 1 36 1 36 - _ 108 Tab. Assistant 24,000 1 16 1 24 1 24 1 16 - 80 Technicians 21,600 6 80 6 129 6 129 6 105 4 58 501 Surveyors 19,200 4 51 4 77 4 77 4 51 - 256 Draftsmen 12,000 10 72 10 120 10 120 10 72 - - 384 Water Supply Foremen 24,000 - - 2 24 2 48 2 24 - - 96 Well Sinkers 21,600 - _ 2 43 2 22 - - 65 Building Foremen 24,000 - - 2 48 2 48 2 24 - - 120 Drilling Foremen 24,000 2 48 2 48 - 24 - _ 120 Airfares, allowances 220 95 210 - 300 - 67 892

Sub-Total 487 716 834 700 125 2,862

TOTAL BASE COSTS 3,257 4,186 4,304 4,170 3,595 19,512 Physical Contingencies 490 627 646 626 539 2,928 Price Contingencies 412 722 1.188 1,583 1.773 5.678

TOTAL COSTS 4159 5.535 6,138 6 379 5 907 28.118 ANNEX 10 Table 13

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Local Salaries (TSh '000)

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Unit Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost No. Cost Total Cost TSh

PROJECT SECRETARIAT

Project Evaluation Officer 40,000 - - 1 20 1 40 1 40 1 40 140 Research Assistant 18,000 1 9 1 18 1 18 1 18 1 18 81 Senior Enumerators 13,500 4 27 4 54 4 54 4 54 4 54 243 Statistical Assistants 9,000 2 18 2 36 2 36 2 36 2 36 162 Enumerators 9,000 10 45 10 90 10 90 10 90 10 90 405 Clerks 9,000 2 9 2 18 2 18 2 18 2 18 81 Driver 8,000 1 4 1 8 1 8 1 8 1 8 36

Sub-Total 112 244 264 264 264 1_148

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

Field Officer 15,000 2 23 2 30 2 30 2 30 2 30 143 Assistant Field Officers 9,000 2 14 6 54 10 90 10 90 10 90 338 Driver 6,000 - - 4 24 4 24 4 24 4 24 96 Allowances & Overtime - - - 9 - 9 - 14 - 14 46

Sub-Total 37 117 153 158 ;L

LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT

Field Officers 34,000 3 51 3 102 4 136 4 136 4 136 561 Assistant Field Officers 9,000 5 23 5 45 7 63 7 63 7 63 257 Field Assistants 5,000 5 13 5 25 15 75 15 75 15 75 263 clerical Staff 9,000 1 5 1 9 2 18 2 18 2 18 68 Drivers 6,000 11 33 11 66 13 78 13 78 13 78 333 Skilled Labor 5,000 10 25 10 50 14 70 14 70 14 70 285 Allowances - 47 - 96 - 122 - 122 - 122 509

Sub-TotaL 197 393 562 562 562 2276

WATER SUPPLY

Secretary/Clerk 9,000 3 18 3 27 3 27 3 27 3 27 126 Equipment Operators 9,000 4 24 4 36 4 36 4 36 4 36 168 Drivers/Skilled Labor 6,000 8 32 20 120 20 120 20 120 20 120 512 Unskilled Labor 100 - 1,400 - 1,500 - 1,500 - 1,500 6,000 Allowances - 6 - 30 - 30 - 30 - 30 126 Sub-Total 180 1,61713 1,713 1,713 6,932

REAFFORESTATION

Forester 25,000 1 13 1 25 1 25 1 25 1 25 113 Assistant Forester 15,000 2 15 2 30 2 30 2 30 2 30 135 Field Assistant 5,000 3 8 3 15 3 15 3 15 3 15 68 Allowances - 7 - 15 - 15 - 15 - 15 67

Sub-Total 43 85 85 85 85 383

TOTAL BASE COSTS 569 2,452 2,777 2,782 2,782 11,362 Price Contingencies 30 190 365 520 670 1,775

TOTAL COSTS 599 2,642 3,142 3,302 3,452 13,137 ANNEX 11

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Schedule of Estimated Disbursement of IDA and Canadian Government Funds 1/

IDA Fiscal Year Disbursement Cumulative Balance and Quarter Ending in Quarter Disbursement of Credit ……----______------……(US$ 000)…

1977/78 December - - 12,000 March 150 50 11,950 June 120 170 11,830 1978/79 September 400 570 11,430 December 650 1,220 10,790 March 550 1,770 10,230 June 500 2,270 9,730 1979/80 September 1,050 3,320 8,680 December 1,050 4,370 7,630 March 650 5,020 6,980 June 620 5,640 6,360 1980/81 September 650 6,290 5,710 December 650 6,940 5,060 March 260 7,200 4,800 June 260 7,460 4,540 1981/82 September 950 8,410 3,590 December 950 9,360 2,640 March 250 9,610 2,390 June 250 9,860 2,140 1982/83 September 850 10,710 1,290 December 850 11,560 440 March 220 11,780 220 June 220 12,000

1/ This schedule assumes that the Credit would become effective in September 1977. It takes account of advance preparation of contracts and allows for a 3- quarter average delay between expenditure and IDA disbursement. The IDA and Canadian funds would be disbursed by IDA in the ratio of 7:5 for all items jointly financed by IDA and the Canadian Government. TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOFHENTPROJECT

Government Sources sad Application of Fonds 1/ (TSh' O0O)

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Export Taxes on Cotto, 2/ - 10 71 169 311 341 408 448 486 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 535 Net Profit frn Cotton - 29 214 507 604 702 800 897 975 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 1,073 Net Frofit from Paddy - 10 68 196 392 471 550 626 705 783 705 783 783 783 783 783 783 783 783 783 F-nnere Repaynect for Input 31 - 173 852 1,703 2,556 Net Frofit fran Livestock 4/ 123 270 306 414 491 557 557 557 557 557 557 557 557 557 557 557 557 557 557 557 Inco. e Tanen 65 191 232 242 242 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 163 Rectal Benefit on Ho..ee 5/ 518 518 518 518 518 518 518 518 518 518 518 518 518 518 518 IDA and Canadi-n Contributi.nr 9,794 19,256 23,157 17,596 19,090 10,707 ODM (UK) Cuntribution 9.200 9 700 6,700 8,100 7,800 - - -

Total Sourcea of Fonda 19,182 29 639 i31,60 2800 27 31.486 13,459 2,996 3.209 3,404 3,629 3.629 3,629 3.629 3,629 3,629 3.629 3.629 3.629 3.629 3,629 AFFLICATION OF FUNDS

Governaent Subdidy on Inp.ts 6/ 1.410 1,410 1,410 1,410 1,410 Maintenance Coat of Water Supply 7/ 60 120 180 240 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 330 IDA and Canadian Service Ch-rges 73 218 392 524 667 747 747 747 747 747 740 732 725 717 710 702 695 687 680 672 IDA and C.nadian Repay..ntn Project Secretar-at 6,258 2,503 2,429 2,447 2,429 Agricultural Development 3,245 2,642 4,339 6.489 8,403 496 496 496 496 496 496 496 496 496 496 496 496 496 496 496 Livest-ck 4,092 3,029 3,672 3,973 2,523 1,223 1,223 1,223 1,223 1,223 1,223 1,223 1,223 1,223 1,223 1,223 1,223 1,223 1,223 1,223 Water Supply 9,253 20,552 6,098 7,528 6,822 817 817 817 817 817 817 817 817 817 817 817 817 817 817 817 Roada 8/ 11,384 6,125 5,649 4,851 3,719 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 F-restry 359 255 253 402 253 2_03 30 2203 203 203 203 203 203 2053 703 2030 23 70353 203

Total Applications 34.724 35.444 23.012 26,454 25,146 5,926 5,926 5,926 5,926 5,926 4,509 4,501 4,494 4,486 4,479 4,471 4,464 4,456 4,449 4,441

Government Snrplaa (Deficit) (15,542) (5,805) 8,588 2,473 6,340 7,533 (2,930) (2,717) (2,522) 2,297 (880) (872) (865) (857) (850) (8425 (835) (827) (820) (812)

Accueulated Surplus (Deficit) (15,542) (21,347) (12,759) (10,286) (3,946) 3,587 657 (2,060) (4,582) (2,285) 3,165 (4,037) (4,902) (5,759) (6,609) (7,481) (8,316) (9,143) (9,963) (10,775)

1/ In cacatant 1977 Fricee, Te.an, levies and eapenans are eapected to inflnte at ab-ut the sein rate 2/ Tax is 10% of FOB value of lint cottop 3/ F_neera payment is 100% fnr seeds and 507 fr ather inputn. 4/ Asaures 20% of nales is cat profit. 5/ A.auxer 10% of .on.truction -oats of all hba... . bdy f 507, of cot of inpta, asaed to continue in Froject period, is included in agricultural cets. Rednced to 25% for fallowtng 5 years and nero after year 10. F.eaentPr Gover-amet badget of TSh 3 per .apita for mainten--ce cost of water is arsumed ta continue The rent would be paid by villagers (apprxiimately TSh 4,00 per capita). i/ FrPn year 6, tavern all Tabnra networbk rad and repreeentn difforeace between Project estinate af naintenance cost and average Govern-ent budget allocation from 1972/73 to 1975/76, ANNEX 13 Page 1

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Economic Costs and Benefits and Sensitivity Analysis

1. Project incremental costs and benefits are summarized in Table 1. The cost and benefit streams for individual components, excluding the Water Supply component and the Land-Use Planning component, for which no very mean- ingful benefits could be calculated, are given in Tables 2 through 5. Costs and benefits are expressed in constant values based on October 1976 prices, derived from the cost calculations shown in the tables in Annex 10, and the production and other benefits detailed in the relevant component Annexes, 2, 3, 5, and 6 with 7.

2. In these calculations, all tradeable production and Project inputs have been valued at FOB or CIF as appropriate, adjusted for costs of transport and handling between Tabora and Dar es Salaam and expressed in local currency at the official exchange rates; and non-tradeables have been valued at their domestic market prices adjusted to their border equivalents. The local cost element of these costs has been deflated by the Standard Conversion Factor (SCF) for Tanzania as no specific factors are yet available for Tanzania. The SCF of 0.75 is the ratio of the official exchange rate to an estimated shadow rate. Unskilled labor has been shadow priced at 40% of the official rural wage rate: this level is representative of the opportunity cost of such labor in the Region. Skilled labor has been valued at market prices adjusted to border price equivalents. Fertilizer prices have been derived from World Bank commodity forecasts (see Tables 6 and 7). Taxes have been removed from costs, but physical contingencies are included.

3. The reference price for cotton is FOB, and prices for paddy and groundnuts are CIF, Dar es Salaam equivalents of international prices, projected in line with World Bank commodity price forecasts to 1980 and thereafter taken at the 1980 level. Domestic prices at Dar es Salaam have been taken for sorghum and beef. The relevant base prices are:

Cotton lint: AR TSh 9039 mt BR TSh 5630 mt Cotton seed TSh 553 mt Paddyy TSh 2602 mt Groundnuts TSh 2870 mt Sorghum TSh 1000 mt Beef TSh 9900 mt

The value of fuelwood has been taken as the saving of transport costs, unsubsidized, on carting miombo wood. For the roads component, constant local market prices were taken as the basis for benefit calculations (Annex 5, Appendix 7) -- a conservative approach. ANNEX 13 Page 2

4. The internal economic rate of return (IER) on the Project (excluding the Water Supply component, the Water Master Plan, and the Land-Use survey, but including all the Project Secretariat costs) is estimated at 17% over 20 years. (If all costs are included, but no benefits are attributed to the Water and Land-Use Planning components, IER is estimated to be 9%.) The separate components have also been evaluated. The results, and their sensitivity to variations in costs and benefits, are shown in the following tabulation:

Component Rate of return

Crop agriculture 18%

With costs 10% greater than estimate 12% With costs 20% greater than estimate 7% With farm labor priced at the rural wage negative With yields 15% greater than estimate 26% With yields 15% lower than estimate 8%

Livestock (including Tsetse survey) 20%

With yields 20% lower than estimate 11% With yields 20% greater than estimate 30% With yields 30% lower than estimate 7% With yields 50% lower than estimate negative

Fuelwood 40%

With benefits 30% lower tl- estimate 35%

Roads Maintenance and Constructio. 21%

With all costs 25% greater than ostimate 16% With recurrent costs 25% greater ':hanestimate 18% With benefits 50% lower than estimate 9% With benefits 25% higher than estimate 25%

Total (including Project Secretariat) 17%

With benefits lagged 1 year 13% With benefits lagged 2 years 10% With benefits 25% lower than estimate 9%

The most sensitive components are crop agriculture and livestock, in which lower production is a real possibility. Given that these are experimental, however, the true benefits are not the short-term production benefits used here to calculate returns, but hard-to-quantify, longer-term, results expected from the application of the results of the applied research. The roads and ANNEX 13 Page 3 fuelwood componentsare noticeably stable. It is unlikely that benefits would materialize 1 or 2 years later without some compensatingdelay in expenditures,and therefore even the one-year delay tested -- which reduces IER by one-quarter -- is probably a particularlysevere test.

5. Consideringthat the Project is essentiallya pilot one, the estimated rates of return are high, and there are benefits which would accrue to the Project, even in this initial period, which have not been quantified. A follow-up Project should have a very good IER. TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Economic Costs/Benefits (TSh'000)

Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-20

PROJECT COSTS

Project Secretariat 6,018 2,239 2,161 2,179 2,161 706 706 706 706 706 Crop Development 1,789 2,488 4,821 7,788 10,687 9,178 9,178 9,178 9,178 9,178 Livestock Development 3,703 3,029 3,446 4,448 2,495 1,411 1,411 1,411 1,411 1,411 Fuelwood Production 357 244 245 3C,3 24v 246 246 184 185 185 Roads 10,797 5,585 5,140 4,389 3,358 3,090 2,700 2,740 1,175 1,175

Total Project Costs 22,664 13,585 15,813 19,187 18,947 14,631 14,241 14,219 12,655 12,655

INCREMENTAL BENEFITS

Crop Development 0 280 1,792 4,463 7,755 9,190 10,475 11,830 13,153 14,536 Livestock Development 803 1,559 2,960 3,120 3,220 3,775 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 Fuelwood Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,400 4,400 Roads 0 0 534 1,963 4.186 6.563 9,159 11,334 12,125 12,712

Total Incremental Benefits 803 1,839 5,286 9,546 15,161 15,528 22,934 26,464 32,978 34,948

Net Benefit (Costs) (21,861) (11,746) (10,527) (9,641) (3,786) (4,897) 8,693 12,245 20,323 22,293

Rate of Return: 17% ANNEX 13 Table 2 TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Crop Development

Economic Costs/Benefits (TSh'000)

Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-20

CAPITAL COSTS

Buildings Village Coop-Stores 160 160 160 160 160 Grade B Housing 125 - - - --

Vehicles & Spare Parts 278 5 6 67 -

Technical Assistance 985 1,315 1,315 1,315 1,315

Physical Contingencies 205 214 214 220 214

TOTAL CAPITAL COSTS 1,753 1,694 1,695 1,762 1,689

INCREMENTAL OPERATING COSTS I/

Salaries & Allowances 31 88 155 120 120 300 300 300 300 300 Building Maintenance 5 11 12 16 20 20 20 20 20 20 Vehicle Operating Costs - 125 125 125 155 155 155 155 155 155 Inputs - 375 1,890 3,815 5,778 5,778 _5,78 5,778 5,778 5,778

TOTAL OPERATING COSTS 36 599 2,142 4,076 6,073 t,253 2 6,253 6,253 6,253

Incremental Farm Labor 0 195 975 1,950 2,925 2,925 2,925 2,925 2,925 2,925

TOTAL PROJECT COST 1,789 2,488 4,812 7,788 10,687 9,178 9,178 9,178 9,178 9,178

INCREMENTAL BENEFIT

Paddy 0 62 420 1,251 2,503 3,003 3,504 4,003 4,505 5,000 Sorghum 0 26 194 569 1,187 1,470 1,753 2,001 2,258 2,601 Cotton 0 78 590 1,395 2,397 2,881 3,218 3,654 4,050 4,427 Groundnuts 0 114 5RR 1,24R l,rPR 1,gr8 2,000 2,172 2,340 2,508

Total Incremental Benefit 0 280 1,792 4,463 7,755 9,190 10,475 11,830 13,153 14,536

Net Incremental Benefit (1,789) (2,208) (3,020) (3,325) (2,932) 12 1,297 2,652 3,975 5,358

1/ Includes Physical Contingencies.

Rate of Return: 18% ANNEX 13 Table 3

TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENTPROJECT

Livestock Development

Economic Costs/Benefits (TSh'000)

Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7-20

CAPITAL COSTS

Buildings & Civil Works

Office & Stores 54 Veterinary Centers 79 60 60 - - Housing 1/ 830 60 60 - - Dips 164 164 164 - -

Vehicles & Spare Parts 884 19 312 783 114

Equipment

Office & laboratory equipment 128 34 19 - - Camping equipment 19 - - - Spravers & protective clothing - 25 19 - Weighbridges 231 231 - - -

Village Development - 147 487 1,24o 318

Technical Assistance 328 656 656 656 328

Other Costs - 200 80 200 290

Physical Contingencies 297 158 164 176 60

TOTAL CAPITAL COSTS 3,014 2,021 3,063 1,110

INCREMENTAL OPERATING COSTS 2/

Wages, Salaries & allowances 150 295 422 422 422 422 422 Vehicle Operating Costs 155 284 350 355 355 155 155 Building maintenance - 20 22 24 24 24 24 Equipment maintenance - 23 26 26 26 26 26 Dips, Dams & Stock handling facilities - 22 36 36 36 36 36 Vaccines, drugs, etc. 49 93 132 132 132 132 132 Training - 175 72 - - - - Incremental Labour 335 340 365 390 390 390 390

TOTAL OPERATING COSTS 689 1,252 1,425 1,385 1,385 1,185 1,185

TOTAL PROJECT COSTS 3,703 3,006 3,446 4,448 2,495 1,411 1,411

INCREMENTAL BENEFIT 803 1,559 2,960 3,120 3,220 3,775 3,300

Net Incremental Benefit (2,900) (1,447) (486) (1,328) 725 2,364 1,889

1/ Includes two Grade A Housing, furniture and equipment, and temporary field housing.

2/ Includes Physical Contingencies.

Rate of Return: 20% TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Forestry Component

Economic Costs/Benefits (TSh'000)

Years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9-20

CAPITAL COSTS

Civil Works 8 - - - Vehicles & Spare Parts 205 - - 138 - Equipment 24 ------

TOTAL CAPITAL COSTS 237 - - 138 - - - - -

INCREMENTAL OPERATING COSTS

Salaries & Allowances 32 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 Inputs 1 2 2 2 2 - - _ _ Equipment Maintenance 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Vehicle Operating Cost 36 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 Field Labour 20 60 60 60 60 - - _ _ Farm Labour 24 33 34 34 35 35 36 36 89

Total Operating Costs 120 244 245 245 246 184 185 185 238

TOTAL PROJECT COSTS 357 244 245 383 246 184 185 185 238

Incremental Benefits 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,400

Net Incremental Benefits (357) (244) (245) (383) (246) (184) (185) (185) 4,162

Rate of Return: 41% TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Roads Component

Economic Costs/Benefits (TSh'000)

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10-20

CAPITAL COSTS

Equipment & Spare Parts 7,915 ------Technical Assistance 971 1,340 1,040 ------

Total Capital Costs 8,886 1,340 1,040

RECURRENT COSTS

Operating Costs 1,588 3,610 3,465 3,754 2,873 2,560 2,125 2,125 850 850 Local Staff Salaries 323 635 635 635 485 530 575 615 325 325

Total Operating Costs 1,911 4,245 4,100 4,389 3,358 3,090 2,700 2,740 1,175 1,175

TOTAL PROJECT COSTS 10,797 5,585 5,140 4,389 3,358 3,090 2,700 2,740 1,175 1,175

INCREMENTAL BENEFITS

Network Roads 0 0 368 1,317 2,355 3,486 4,717 5,398 5,892 6,168 Access Roads 0 0 166 646 1,831 3,077 4,442 5,936 6,233 6,544

Total Incremental Benefits 0 0 534 1,963 4,186 6,563 9,159 11,334 12,125 12,712

Net Benefits (Costs) (10,797) (5,585) (4,606) (2,426) 828 3,473 6,459 8,594 10,950 11,537

Rate of Return: 20%

(DX TANZANIA

TABORA RURAI, DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Forecast Financial Prices for Imported Fertilizer Based on IBJ) Constant D)ollar lorecasts

IBRD 1976 Total Constant Cost Dollar Price Sea Total. Total Port Local in 1976 Year _ _ orecasJ! Freight cif Cost (Lf Cost Ilandling Transport Prices …------(US$ per Ton)------(TShs. per Ton)------

Triple Superphos hate

1976 115 40 155 1286 110 460 1856 1977 122 40 162 1345 110 460 1915 1978 128 40 168 1394 110 460 1964 1979 134 40 178 1477 110 460 2047 1980 146 40 186 1544 110 460 2114 1981 152 40 192 1594 110 460 2164

Sulphate of Ammonia

1976 68 40 108 896 110 410 .416 1977 76 40 110 913 110 410 1710 1978 79 40 119 988 11.0 410 1785 1979 83 40 123 1021 110 410 1818 1980 83 40 123 1021 110 410 18]8 1981 84 40 124 1029 110 410 1826

]/ Based on Junie 1976 Commodity Forecast.

fD TANZANIA

TABORA RURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Forecast Economic Prices for Fertilizer I/

Port Local Economic Total Cost Total Cost Handling Transport Farmgate Year cif cif Charges Costs Price (uS$ per ton) ------(TSh per ton)------

Triple Superphosphate

1976 155 1,286 82 415 1,783 1977 162 1,345 82 415 1,842 1978 168 ,1,394 82 415 1,891 1979 178 1,477 82 415 1,974 1980 186 1,544 82 415 2,041 1981 192 1,594 82 415 2,091

Sulphate of Ammonia

1976 96 797 82 370 1,249 1977 110 913 82 370 1,365 1978 119 988 82 370 1,440 1979 123 1,021 82 370 1,473 1980 123 1,021 82 370 1,473 1981 124 1,029 82 370 1,481

1/ Based on the Financial Costs in Table 6.

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