Expanding Horizons 2020 Offshore perspectives on investment into New Zealand during the Covid-19 recovery
November 2020
In collaboration with
1 Contents
Key findings 3
Methodology 4
Introduction: Cautious optimism as investment fundamentals still solid 5
Section 1: Investor intentions and investmentfundamentals still positive 7
Section 2: New Zealand M&A – this is local private equity’s moment 10
Section 3: Re-opened border will accelerate New Zealand’s M&A market 12
Section 4: Tech, consumer and pharma sectors lead the way 14
Section 5: Overseas investment regime working, but still room for reform 16
Conclusion: Looking ahead 18
About Simpson Grierson and Contacts 19
2 Expanding Horizons 2020: Offshore perspectives on investment into New Zealand during the Covid-19 recovery Key findings 60% 8% 20% of investors surveyed of investors surveyed have of investors surveyed intend to invest in N in delayed NZ investments. say Covid-19 has the next two years. 2 % have suspended/ increased their 29% are considering abandoned likelihood to invest inves�ng here in pre-Covid in N the next 12 months intended investments
60% 70% % of investors surveyed say a decline in deal value in decline in deal volume in par�al re-opening of NZ’s H1 2020 (US$1.2bn) H1 2020 (29 deals) compared borders would make them more compared to H1 2019 (30 deals) likely to invest. 7 % say a full to H1 2019 border re-opening would (US$4.2bn) likewise en�ce them to invest
Inbound M A TMT in H1 2020 is NZ’s most a�rac�ve sector, % accounted for according to 71% of respondents. of investors surveyed think 96% of deal value Pharma, biotech and the NZ Government’s (US$1.19bn) and medical (60%), and policies are suppor�ve 69% of volume consumer (51%) towards foreign investment, (20 deals) are also hot sectors compared to 14% who view them as unsuppor�ve
3 Methodology
In August 2020, Simpson Grierson commissioned Acuris Studios, the publishing division of Acuris (which operates Mergermarket), to canvas the opinions of 35 foreign investors on the investment opportunities, trends and challenges in New Zealand – and how their investment intentions have been affected by Covid-19. Selected respondents were a cross-section of the investors who responded to the 2019 Expanding Horizons survey, and were evenly split between Asia-Pacific, North America and Europe. All respondents had completed at least one investment into NZ in the past five years. Within the graphed survey results, percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding, or when respondents were allowed to choose more than one answer. All quoted data is propriety Mergermarket data unless otherwise stated. All deals are based on announced transactions.
How would you categorise your company? Where is your company based? 0 20 40 60 80 0 20 40 60 80 60% 40% 34% 34% 31%
Foreign corporation/MNC Foreign PE/VC firm Asia-Pacific Europe North America
What was your company’s most recent annual revenue? 26% 9% 26% 9% 0% less than US$5 billion less than US$1 billion less than US$10 billion At least US$1 billion but billion US$1 least At but billion US$5 least At Less than US$499 million Greater than US$10 billion than Greater At least US$500 million but million US$500 least At
4 Expanding Horizons 2020: Offshore perspectives on investment into New Zealand during the Covid-19 recovery Introduction: Cautious optimism as investment fundamentals still solid
Welcome to the latest edition of ‘Expanding Horizons’, our report on offshore investment into New Zealand. Our 2019 report was a market first – providing an examination of overseas investment into Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ), from the investor point of view. It drew on feedback from foreign investors, representing both trade and private equity (PE) buyers, who had invested in NZ in the past five years. The results were encouraging. Respondents saw NZ as an attractive investment option and 77% expressed an intention to invest here over the following 18 months. The outlook for M&A investment into NZ looked good.
Then came Covid-19. How the crisis, and the NZ Government’s response, will Michael Pollard impact our economy is an important question with no clear answer just yet. Head of Corporate We wanted to know how Covid-19 has changed offshore investors’ plans Simpson Grierson to invest in NZ. So we specifically asked a cross-section of our 2019 survey respondents how the pandemic had changed their investment plans and sentiment towards the NZ market. The results tell a surprisingly positive tale for NZ inbound investment and we share respondents’ feedback in this report. Some key takeaways include: • Investors believe NZ’s investment fundamentals remain sound and 60% of respondents say they are considering investing here in the next 12-24 months. 20% of respondents say the pandemic will actually increase their likelihood to invest in NZ. • However, 48% of respondents are delaying investments here and 23% say their pre-Covid considerations have been suspended or abandoned. • Investors still need to visit our shores to kick the tyres on investments. Safely re-opening borders will help to accelerate NZ’s M&A market. In the interim, less competition from offshore PE and Multi-National Corporations (MNCs) gives local PE a golden opportunity. • The need for certainty (with markets returning to some sort of stasis and valuation expectations normalising) is a golden thread running through all responses. We are hopeful that NZ’s economic equilibrium will return soon, with offshore investors not far behind. Although, like the respondents, we recognise that risks remain. The country has proven its ability to control Covid-19 outbreaks, enabling the domestic economy to operate more or less normally. The big change will come when we are able to safely re-open our borders, either partially or fully. We hope you enjoy reading our report. Please get in touch with our contacts if you would like to discuss any of the findings in more detail.
5 6 Expanding Horizons 2020: Offshore perspectives on investment into New Zealand during the Covid-19 recovery Section 1: Investor intentions and investment fundamentals still positive
Covid-19 has delayed offshore investors’ M&A plans for NZ, but overall investor sentiment is positive and NZ investment fundamentals remain strong.
Covid has delayed and Not all bad news as generating increased demand for technology investment (see Section 4 denied deals 20% of respondents told us that on page 14). The ongoing economic impacts Covid-19 has actually increased their of Covid-19 have obviously affected likelihood to invest in NZ. respondents, with many saying they Several respondents highlighted “The global economic are delaying plans to invest in NZ. the speed at which NZ controlled conditions are posing 48% of respondents indicate that the spread of Covid-19, compared problems during decision- they are delaying investments, to other regions, and can see it and 23% told us their pre-Covid leading to a “first mover advantage”. making. We cannot considerations for investment in NZ However, most respondents cited determine the optimum have been suspended indefinitely the relative stability of our market value for targets, even if or abandoned. and good targets as key factors, they have incorporated saying that NZ’s general appeal Investors who have delayed plans as an investment destination is good digital standards in will be hoping the health crisis is more influential than the country’s under control soon. This would their operations.” effective Covid response. allow countries to re-open their Director Corporate Development, borders and for markets to return to The crisis has also opened up Australian corporation an equilibrium, so that pricing and opportunities for investors to valuation assessments can be made capitalise in certain sectors such as with a degree of confidence. pharma, medical and biotech, as well
Figure 1. Has the Covid-19 pandemic affected your investment intentions?
20% 34% 14% 23% 9% 0% e r u s n U No impact by over 1 year over by by 1-12 months by Yes – delayed considera�on – delayed Yes Yes – delayed considera�on – delayed Yes Yes – increased likelihood to invest to likelihood – increased Yes suspended indefinitely or abandoned suspended indefinitely Yes – pre-Covid considera�on has been considera�on – pre-Covid Yes
7 General investor sentiment is Investment fundamentals “The valuation, political and cautiously positive hold steady legal certainty are the main reasons for New Zealand being 60% of our 2020 survey respondents Respondent feedback shows that a good destination.” are considering, or open to the continued strength of basic – Director Finance, considering, investment in NZ within investment fundamentals is the key US-based corporation the next two years. driver for investors to invest into NZ. “The tax regime is favourable, as This is a similar percentage to The most attractive fundamentals compared to some other regions our 2019 survey, where 57% said for inbound investors include: less in Europe and [the] Americas. they planned to invest here within competition for targets, political/ There is support for foreign 24 months. regulatory stability, access to new/ investments, which is ideal for advanced tech, and generally fair 29% of this year’s respondents corporations and PE firms. The use valuations/good returns. indicated that they are considering of advanced technology and digital or would consider investing here While NZ’s Covid-19 response transformations is also appealing.” in the next 12 months (compared and relatively mild recession to – CFO, UK-based corporation to 13% in 2019). However, 37% say date have increased our appeal they will not consider investing in NZ as an investment destination for (compared to 3% in 2019). some respondents, only 29% identified NZ’s “decisive response to Covid-19” as one of our most attractive fundamentals.
Figure 2. Are you considering or would you consider M&A/investment in NZ?
2019 survey 13% 40% 20% 21% 3% 2020 survey 29% 31% 37% 3% Yes – within the next 1-12 months Yes – within the next 12-24 months
Yes – within the next 24-36 months No Unsure
“(NZ) is a good investment destination, because target capabilities have 6%achieved benchmark standards in recent times. The progress made by companies in various sectors will pay off because the recession is mild.” Managing Partner, Australian PE/VC firm
8 Expanding Horizons 2020: Offshore perspectives on investment into New Zealand during the Covid-19 recovery Figure 3. What makes NZ attractive as an investment destination?
2019 2020
Compe��ve environment 29% (rela�vely few 0% buyers/compe�tors) 0% Poli�cal/regulatory stability 7%