Aetos Monthly Report 艾拓思每月报告

AETOS Market Commentary 13/08/2021

AUDUSD

The AUD fell 29.7 pips to 0.7339 against the USD on Thursday (August 12), at this time of writing, trading at around 0.7337. AUD/USD continues to hold pressure around 0.7335-40 after reversing a recovery in the previous two days as Asian traders started Friday session. The Aussie bears are back to the table amid fresh talks about US Fed’s tapering as concerns over coronavirus strengthen negative bias. In doing so the quote ignores a few positive catalysts associated with

China-American headlines and vaccine optimism.

U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data for July reinforced concerns about reflation, which will strengthen the latest push by the Fed's policymakers the latest push for tapering. The latest PPI reading has increased the consensus of past markets across all categories while printing 1.0% figures for the heading numbers and key stats based on MoM. On the contrary, Australia's

Consumer Inflation Expectations fell below the previous 3.7 percent and the 3.8 percent projected at 3.3 percent in August.

Thursday's comments from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly, who told the Financial Times that "tapering of asset purchases could begin immediately this year," were the latest momentum in the rally to push monetary policy adjustments. Previously,

Esther George, President of the Kansas City Fed, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan and

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin scoffed at the hawk's policies.

Elsewhere, the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) entered a seven-day lockdown the day before and keep the woe of COVID on the table even as the soaring numbers of people who have

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vaccinated in NSW and the slightly easy of the country count battled with the virus fears. It is worth noting that Nikkei made the news suggesting that it might be about 5 years for Australia before the border can be completely opened based on the current vaccination rates and a target of 80% before the total unlock. However, it should be also noted that comments from Moderna pointing to the vaccine's ability to generate antibodies against the COVID-19 virus for six months challenge AUD/USD sellers. On the positive side, the US is committed to negotiate with China according to Wendy Sherman, US Secretary of State to the Chinese Ambassador.

Among these plays The Wall Street benchmark was able to print small gains and yields on the

US 10-year government bond rose two basis points (bps) to support the US dollar index (DXY).

Due to a lack of major data/events in Asia, the recent tapering talks and the latest vaccine news could entertain AUD/USD traders ahead of the preliminary reading of the US Michigan

Consumer Confidence Index in August, which is expected to remain unchanged near 81.2.

AUDUSD Daily Chart

The AUD fell 29.7 pips to 0.7339 against the USD on Thursday (August 12), at this time of writing, trading at around 0.7337. The AUD/USD pair has a chance to extend its short-term decline and hit 2021 lows. The daily chart shows that the pair is again below all moving averages, with the

200 SMA continuing its downward slope. In the meantime, technical indicators have crossed into negative territory with uneven strength. It is still a downtrend signal.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD fell 55.5 pips to 1.3809 on Thursday (August 12), at this time of writing, trading at around 1.3810. The GBP/USD pair extended a lateral consolidation movement around the

1.3870-65 region and reacted relatively quietly to the UK macro data dump. The pair was swinging in the first half of Thursday's trading, and until now it also failed to take advantage of a solid overnight rebound from the 1.3800 mark. That said, weaker US dollar price movements continued to support the GBP/USD pair.

The US CPI report released on Wednesday shows signs of weakening inflation pressures and ease concerns about the Fed's early withdrawal of stimulus measures. This is evident from the subsequent pullback in US Treasury yields, which acts as a deterrent to the dollar. However, the

GBP/USD pair struggled to gain meaningful traction and moved little after the release of the UK's better-than-expected monthly GDP print. In fact, the economy grew 1% MoM in June compared to the 0.8% expected and the quarterly growth rate was 4.8% as expected. This was followed by stronger manufacturing and industrial production data in June. The positive reading was offset by an unexpected increase in the UK trade deficit to £11.988bn from £9.601bn. This was seen as the only factor limiting the gain for the GBP/USD pair.

Market participants now look forward to US economic data which includes the release of the

Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly unemployment claims starting as usual coupled with US bond yields. It could affect the USD and provide a trading impetus for the GBP/USD pair.

GBPUSD Daily Chart

The GBPUSD fell 55.5 pips to 1.3809 on Thursday (August 12), at this time of writing, trading at around 1.3810. From a technical point of view, the GBP/USD pair is ready to extend the downturn. The daily chart shows that it has dropped below all moving averages. This remains limited to a tight 20 pips range, although the shorter range is strong by keeping the downtrend momentum at a negative level. There is an additional downward trend when the pair rests below

1.3790 which is the immediate support level.

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