Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Public Disclosure Authorized Report No: ICR00003105
IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT IDA-51870
ON A
CREDIT
Public Disclosure Authorized IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 66.2 MILLION
(US$ 102 MILLION EQUIVALENT)
TO THE
REPUBLIC OF MADAGASCAR
FOR AN
EMERGENCY INFRASTRUCTURE PRESERVATION & VULNERABILITY REDUCTION Public Disclosure Authorized PROJECT
January 22, 2019
Transport Global Practice Africa Region
Public Disclosure Authorized
CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS
(Exchange Rate Effective December 03, 2018)
Currency Unit = Malagasy Ariary (MGA) MGA 3,676.47 = US$1 US$ 1.38 = SDR 1
FISCAL YEAR July 1 - June 30
Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Mark R. Lundell Senior Global Practice Director: Guangzhe Chen Practice Manager: Maria Marcela Silva Task Team Leader(s): Noroarisoa Rabefaniraka; Andrea Vermehren ICR Main Contributor: Oceane Keou
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
AfDB African Development Bank ARM Roads Authority of Madagascar (Autorité Routière de Madagascar) BP Bank Procedure CD Country Director CPF Country Partnership Framework CPGU Emergency Prevention and Management Unit (Cellule de Prévention et Gestion des Urgences) DGM General Directorate of Meteorology (Direction Générale de la Météorologie) DRM Disaster Risk Management EFSSP Emergency Food Security and Social Protection project EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return EPP Emergency Project Paper ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan ESSAF Environmental and Social Screening and Assessment Framework EU European Union EWS Early Warning System FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FER Road Maintenance Fund (Fond d’Entretien Routier) FID Development Intervention Fund (Fonds d’Intervention pour le Développement) FM Financial Management HEMP Health and Environmental Management Plan IA Implementing Agency ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report IDA International Development Association IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IPMP Integrated Pest Management Plan ISN Interim Strategy Note ISPS International Security Codes MAP Madagascar Action Plan M&E Monitoring and Evaluation ml Meters long / Linear meter OP Operations Procedure NPV Net Present Value PCU Project Coordination Unit PDO Project Development Objectives RF Results Framework RN National Road (Route Nationale) SDR Special Drawing Rights WHO World Health Organization WUAs Water Users Associations
TABLE OF CONTENTS
DATA SHEET ...... 1 I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ...... 6 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL ...... 6 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION ...... 11 II. OUTCOME ...... 13 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ...... 13 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ...... 14 C. EFFICIENCY ...... 22 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING ...... 23 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS ...... 24 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ...... 26 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ...... 26 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ...... 27 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 29 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ...... 29 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ...... 30 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ...... 31 D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ...... 32 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 32 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ...... 35 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ...... 50 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ...... 52 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ...... 53 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 59 ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS ...... 60 A. PROJECT RESTRUCTURINGS (FULL TABLE) ...... 60 B. REVISED THEORY OF CHANGE (AFTER BOTH RESTRUCTURINGS) ...... 63 C. ROAD AND BRIDGES CONTRACTS COSTS (SUB-COMPONENT A.1) ...... 64 D. ILLUSTRATIONS OF PROJECT ACHIEVEMENTS ...... 66 E. PROJECT MAPS ...... 67
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
DATA SHEET
BASIC INFORMATION
Product Information Project ID Project Name
Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability P132101 Reduction Project
Country Financing Instrument
Madagascar Investment Project Financing
Original EA Category Revised EA Category
Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B)
Organizations
Borrower Implementing Agency
Ministry of Finance and Budget Autorité Routière de Madagascar
Project Development Objective (PDO)
Original PDO The Project Development Objectives are to preserve key lifeline infrastructure and reduce household vulnerability in targeted areas.
Page 1 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
FINANCING
Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing
102,000,000 102,000,000 93,761,259 IDA-51870 Total 102,000,000 102,000,000 93,761,259
Non-World Bank Financing 0 0 0 Borrower/Recipient 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 Total Project Cost 102,000,000 102,000,000 93,761,259
KEY DATES
Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 29-Nov-2012 17-Apr-2013 31-May-2015 30-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2018
RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING
Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 16-Jul-2013 7.70 Change in Results Framework Change in Components and Cost Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Legal Covenants Change in Financial Management Change in Procurement 17-Jun-2016 70.57 Change in Results Framework Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Institutional Arrangements 02-Feb-2017 79.08 Change in Loan Closing Date(s) 21-Dec-2017 88.74 Change in Loan Closing Date(s)
KEY RATINGS
Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Modest
Page 2 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs
Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 10-Jun-2013 Satisfactory Satisfactory 2.20
02 05-Nov-2013 Satisfactory Satisfactory 19.29
03 04-May-2014 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 26.71
04 16-Nov-2014 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 37.22
05 25-Jun-2015 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 49.49
06 02-Feb-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 64.82
07 30-Aug-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 72.37
08 23-Feb-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 80.80
09 22-Sep-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 86.82
10 21-Mar-2018 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory 92.11
11 05-Jul-2018 Satisfactory Satisfactory 94.47
SECTORS AND THEMES
Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%)
Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry 18 Irrigation and Drainage 18
Education 3 Other Education 3
Social Protection 13 Social Protection 13
Page 3 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Transportation 59 Rural and Inter-Urban Roads 59
Water, Sanitation and Waste Management 7 Other Water Supply, Sanitation and Waste 7 Management
Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Finance 1
Finance for Development 1
Disaster Risk Finance 1
Social Development and Protection 26
Social Protection 26
Social Safety Nets 11
Social Insurance and Pensions 15
Urban and Rural Development 69
Rural Development 66
Rural Infrastructure and service delivery 65
Land Administration and Management 1
Disaster Risk Management 3
Disaster Response and Recovery 1
Disaster Risk Reduction 1
Disaster Preparedness 1
Environment and Natural Resource Management 2
Renewable Natural Resources Asset Management 2
Biodiversity 1
Landscape Management 1
Page 4 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
ADM STAFF
Role At Approval At ICR
Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Hafez M. H. Ghanem
Country Director: Haleh Z. Bridi Mark R. Lundell
Senior Global Practice Director: Jamal Saghir Guangzhe Chen
Practice Manager: Supee Teravaninthorn Maria Marcela Silva Noroarisoa Rabefaniraka, Philippe Noroarisoa Rabefaniraka, Task Team Leader(s): Auffret Andrea Vermehren ICR Contributing Author: Oceane Keou
Page 5 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES
A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL
Context
At project appraisal in 2012, Madagascar had been experiencing a prolonged and severe political crisis, following an unconstitutional change of government in early 2009. It had caused major economic and social impacts exacerbated by a series of external shocks, and a withdrawal of most external funding, with an increase in the incidence of poverty, especially on the most vulnerable population, a severe reduction in public investments and maintenance of lifeline infrastructure, resulting in their deterioration and decreased resilience to natural disasters, as well as a sharp decline in basic social service delivery.
As a result of the political events that led to the departure of the former President of the Republic in early 2009, preparation and approval of new lending and disbursements under the Madagascar portfolio were put on hold in March 2009 in accordance with OP/BP 7.30 - Dealing with De Facto Governments. At the end of 2009, disbursements for the existing portfolio resumed progressively to preserve the projects’ human and physical assets and minimize risks. The full resumption of disbursements in May 2011 facilitated the initiation of a major portfolio restructuring aimed to enhance the portfolio’s impact on poverty reduction through greater spatial concentration while exiting from activities that were at risk of political interference.
The economic potential of Madagascar, fourth largest island in the world with a rapidly increasing population of around 23 million and an urbanization rate of about 20 percent1, had been hindered by several periods of political fragility. Over the 15 years prior to appraisal, the country had experienced five years of political crisis on two occasions. Under mediation from the Southern African Development Community (SADC), progress had been made to resolve the political stalemate, with the independent electoral commission’s announcement of Presidential and Parliamentary elections in mid-2013. However, the political situation remained fragile.
The economic effects of the political crisis had been further exacerbated by the substantial reduction of the external aid flow, which represented at least 50 percent of the total Government budget. Economic growth had thus been largely absent between 2009 and 2012, which combined with a population growth of 2.9 percent per annum, had resulted in a sharp decrease in per-capita income, which barely reached US$400 in 2011.2 The proportion of the population living under the poverty line had increased by 10 percentage points between 2005 and 2010. With a poverty rate of 77 percent, Madagascar had the highest poverty rate in Africa (based on national poverty lines and consumption expenditures).
Infrastructure. The country’s transport lifeline infrastructure asset base had deteriorated sharply since the onset of the crisis, with a net reduction in the length of the classified road network from about 48,700 km in 1975 to 38,000 km in 2008, to 31,600 km in 2011. Infrastructure deterioration was due to either inadequate investments and
1 INSTAT, 2011. Enquête périodique auprès des Ménages 2010. Ministry of Economy and Industry, August. 2 World Bank. World Development Indicators 2011. Washington DC, April 2011.
Page 6 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
maintenance funding, or major natural disasters. Similarly, large numbers of schools and health centers had also been damaged, disrupting the delivery of basic social services. The last cyclone that occurred prior to project appraisal was reported to have damaged over 2,000 classrooms.
Social Protection. Vulnerability of large segments of the population also increased. Social protection policies and programs financed by the government, development partners and Non-Governmental Organizations had remained largely insufficient to mitigate the devastating impacts of the crisis on an already impoverished population. Government expenditure on social protection had fallen dramatically, from US$145 million in 2008 to US$56 million in 2010, and tended not to be targeted towards the most vulnerable.
Agriculture. At the time of appraisal, 81 percent of households in Madagascar (89 percent in rural areas) were engaged in agriculture. with extremely low levels of productivity, resulting from a combination of factors (limited uptake of improved technology land tenure insecurity, lack of access to credit, inadequate storage facilities, and deficient transport infrastructure). Droughts, cyclones and floods represented major risks as well in the sector.
Disaster Risk Management (DRM). At the time of appraisal, one quarter of Madagascar’s population, lived in zones at risk of natural disasters. Since 1990, 41 major natural disasters had been recorded that had affected approximately 8 million people and killed about 1,800. Government capacity to respond to disasters was limited both due to a lack of planning and coordination, and a lack of resources.
In this context, the project was prepared following considerations of OP/BP 8.00 as a disaster prevention and emergency operation. In addition, under OP/BP 7.30 the Bank was not allowed to engage with the Government’s administration at high level, including the Ministers of Public Works and of Finance, until January 2014; as such initially, the project had to be designed, approved, restructured, and implemented the first year with the technical level staff from line ministries/Implementing Agencies (IAs) only.
The proposed project was in line with the government’s strategy and contributed to the objectives highlighted in the Bank Interim Strategy Note (ISN) for the period FY2012-2013 and its two pillars “Resilience and Vulnerability” and “Employment and Competitiveness”. The five-year Madagascar Action Plan (MAP 2007-2012), main policy document at the time of appraisal, confirmed the Government’s will to build and maintain infrastructure, enhance agricultural production and social protection, and mitigate the impacts of natural disasters.
Page 7 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Theory of Change (Results Chain)
Considering the above-described context, the project was designed to tackle rapid infrastructure deterioration and increased household vulnerability. The proposed project aimed at preserving lifeline infrastructure (transport, agriculture, health, and education sectors) in identified areas and reducing vulnerability by creating short-term employment and income opportunities for poor households in targeted areas, through the provision of cash-for- work and agricultural intensification schemes. The project also aimed at increasing the DRM capacity of the Government to anticipate and respond to natural disasters.
The Theory of Change was not a requirement at the time of project preparation and is being introduced for the purpose of the ICR. The figure 1 below shows the original theory of change, based on the project components and indicators, with longer-term outcomes the project was expected to contribute to beyond its closing date. The project activities were designed under the following assumptions (external factors):
• The geographical or financial scope of the proposed interventions would complement projects implemented by other development partners (the European Union (EU), the African Development Bank (AfDB), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)). • For activities under sub-component A.2 (Rehabilitation of Community-level Basic Infrastructure), representatives of the region and communities have adequate capacity to prioritize sub-projects of rehabilitation following a transparent and participatory process. • For activities under sub-component B.1 (Preservation of Productive Capacity in Agriculture) beneficiary associations have enough funding to match the contribution/grant provided by the project.
Project Development Objectives (PDOs)
The original Project Development Objectives as stated in the Financing Agreement and the Project Appraisal Document (PAD) were to preserve key lifeline infrastructure and reduce household vulnerability in targeted areas.
Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators
The PDO had two sub-objectives measured through five indicators defined as outcome-level indicators. The quality and nature of these indicators are discussed in the ‘M&E design’ section.
Objective 1 (PDO 1): To preserve key lifeline infrastructure • Share of rural population with access to an all-season road (proportion) [and number of people with access to an all-season road] • Communes covered by functional flood or cyclone Early Warning Systems • Direct project beneficiaries
Objective 2 (PDO 2): To reduce household vulnerability in targeted areas • Average yield per hectare in irrigated rice production in project-intervention irrigation sites (ton/ha) • Beneficiaries of safety net programs – cash-for-work
Page 8 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Components
The project consisted of three main components, described in the table below.
Table 1 - Project components
Components Sub-components description Financing Actual at resource appraisal allocation (US$ m) Component Sub-component A.1: Rehabilitation of Transport Lifeline Infrastructure 57.5 54.5 A: This sub-component would finance: (a) rehabilitation and asset preservation of four Rehabilitation existing major metallic bridges on key National Roads; (b) rehabilitation works on key of Lifeline National Roads including the rehabilitation of road drainage structures, culverts, small Infrastructure bridges, road slope protection works and minor stretches of roads; (c) reconstruction and Disaster of smaller bridges that have exceeded their design life; (d) road asset preservation Risk through the provision of minor civil works and equipment required to enforce axle Mitigation load limits on key National Roads; (e) acquisition of a stock of portable metallic bridges (bailey bridges); (f) minor works and acquisition of equipment to ensure compliance to International Security Codes (ISPS) for Madagascar’s major port.
Page 9 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Construction works would adopt a “Build Back Better” approach and comply with the climate-proof construction norms developed by the Emergency Prevention and Management Unit (CPGU); and (g) capacity strengthening of the Roads Authority of Madagascar (ARM) ((i) study and action plan to make ARM a fully autonomous agency responsible for managing the road network; and (ii) financing of ARM staff salaries). Sub-component A.2: Rehabilitation of Community-level Basic Infrastructure 10.0 7.4 This sub-component would restore access to social and economic services in the aftermath of catastrophic events, including cyclones. It would finance community- level infrastructure sub-projects in crisis-affected areas, including rehabilitation and reconstruction of schools, basic health centers, erosion control structures, water points, and feeder roads. Sub-component A.3: Enhancement of Disaster Risk Management Capacity 4.5 4.1 This sub-component would mitigate the effects of future natural disasters. It would support rehabilitation of the existing degraded national hydro-meteorological monitoring and analysis network and strengthen communications links between the national - General Directorate of Meteorology (DGM) and disaster response agencies, and capacity building of the DGM in weather forecasts and projections. It would purchase equipment to improve cyclone and flooding EWSs that rely on forecasts developed by the DGM, and provide relevant training to central/local operators, and affected communities. It would support the development and application of climate- proof construction norms for key lifeline infrastructure in keeping with the proposed project “Build Back Better” approach. Furthermore, it would provide centralized and decentralized emergency response agencies with essential equipment and training to improve post-disaster data collection, response planning and coordination. Sub-component A.4: Disaster Recovery Contingency Funds 0 12 This subcomponent establishes a zero-budget disaster recovery contingency fund that could be triggered in the event of a natural disaster through formal declaration of a national or regional state of emergency, or upon a formal request from the Government in the wake of a disaster. Total Component A 72 78 Component Sub-component B.1: Preservation of Productive Capacity in Agriculture 15.5 9.5 B: Reduction This sub-component would finance: (a) emergency distribution of improved seed, of Household fertilizer, tools and associated technical assistance to enable rapid increases in food Vulnerability production; (b) rehabilitation and maintenance of small-scale agricultural infrastructure, mainly micro-irrigation systems; (c) watershed protection activities needed to preserve the productive capacity of agricultural infrastructure; and (d) capacity strengthening of producers and community groups to sustainably manage irrigation infrastructure and take advantage of income generating opportunities provided through the project. Sub-component B.2: Cash-for-Work Program 10 10 This sub-component financed a cash-for-work program for poorest households, with the goals of providing access to short-term employment while improving small-scale infrastructure at the community level. Total Component B 25.5 19.5 Component This component would finance project management and coordination costs. It would C: Project pay for consultant services, technical advisory services such as technical studies and Management assessments, operating costs and training, media information campaigns and and communication, and financial audits. Coordination Total Component C 4.5 4.5 Total Project 102 102
Page 10 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION
Revised PDOs, Outcome Targets and/or Components
The project was restructured four times: in 2013, 2016, and twice in 2017. As indicated in the table below, components, associated outcome targets and intermediate level indicators were revised to accommodate specific circumstances. Nevertheless, the PDOs statement remained identical. The project Results Framework (RF) is provided in Annex 1.
Rationale for Changes
The table below provides the timeline and rationale for the project restructurings. A full table is provided in Annex 6.A. Table 2 - Project restructurings
Restructurings/ Reasons Main changes Date Level 2 Due to a severe locust invasion, the Activities: restructuring Government formally declared the Component A.4 (Disaster Recovery Contingency Funds) was approved by CD state of National Emergency and modified to include a response program to the locust on July 16, 2013 requested a first restructuring to invasion alert. contribute to an estimated US$22.4 Financing: million required for the first locust US$10 million reallocated to sub-component A.4 from other campaign. project sub-components: - US$3 million from sub-component A.1; The purpose of the first project - US$2.6 million from sub-component A.2; restructuring was to reallocate - US$0.4 million from sub-component A.3; funds in an aggregate amount - US$4 million from sub-component B.1. equivalent to US$10 million towards sub-component A.4 of the project, Indicators: to fund the new activity. - Details in Annex 6.A.
Level 2 After three years of Activities: restructuring implementation, several activities The following adjustments were made: approved by CD had to be further adjusted: (a) prioritization of works under the Transport component on June 17, - In the transport component due (7 out of 13 bridges were dropped, prioritizing the longest 2016 to: (i) changes in costs and (ii) bridges; road works planned on RN 6, 7, 12 and 25 were devaluation of the SDR. dropped and focus remained on RN4); - In the other components due to: (b) greater selectivity in targeting in the Cash-for-Work (i) changes in the implementation program to increase benefits for the most vulnerable modalities; (ii) SDR devaluation and; people, resulting in fewer people being reached; (iii) need of more funds for the (c) better assessment of local communities needs and locust campaign. capacity in disaster responses, adoption of regional approach which allowed an increase of the final number of
Page 11 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
communes covered. (d) reduction of agricultural activities to increase support for the anti-locust campaign.
Financing: - US$2 million reallocated to sub-component A.4 from sub-component B.1.
Indicators: - Reformulation, revised values in order to reflect different approaches (ex: cash-for-work support more targeted and sustained), to make them more accurate and realistic, or addition of new indicators. Details in Annex 6.A.
Implementation Arrangements: - The size of the Project Coordination Unit (PCU) decreased (from four persons down to two persons, the coordinator and an assistant) to accommodate for the fact that the activities’ scope decreased. Level 2 To extend the project closing date restructuring for an additional 6 months from No changes to the activities, financing or indicators. approved by CD June 30, 2017 to December 31, on February 2, 2017, to accommodate for the Delayed civil works/activities include: rehabilitation of 2017 delays in civil works Manambatromby and Mananjeba bridges; road implementation. rehabilitation works planned in Antananarivo; construction Level 2 To extend the project closing date of weighing stations in Barikadimy and Antsarakofafa; restructuring for an additional 6 months from replacement of mobile axle scales at three weighing approved by CD December 31, 2017 to June 30, stations on the RN4 and RN7; acquisition of communication on December 2018, to accommodate for the equipment for the port of Toamasina. 21, 2017 continuous delays in civil works implementation.
Implication on the Original Theory of Change
The revised Theory of Change takes into account the changes made in the RF (Annex 1) through the restructurings. The PDO sub-objectives remained the same: to preserve key lifeline infrastructure (PDO 1) and to reduce household vulnerability in targeted areas (PDO 2). Yet, one PDO-level indicator was reformulated (“number of people in rural areas that gained access to an all-season road”) and a new one was added (“hectares to be treated by the locust campaign”). Project restructuring documents do not explicitly mention if the added PDO-level indicator is correlated to the first or the second sub-objective, i.e. to PDO 1 or PDO 2. As part of this analysis, the added indicator has been linked with PDO 2, as reflected in Annex 1. The assumption made is that protection measures taken against the locust
Page 12 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
invasion, measured with the number of hectares treated/protected3, help the farmers protect their crops, which in turn may at least preserve the average yield per hectare.
The main new activity (locust campaign) was designed under the following assumption: FAO, who was responsible for the implementation of this activity had the adequate technical, operational, reporting and fiduciary capacity to achieve the expected results indicated in the RF within the agreed timeframe.
The revised Theory of Change is presented in Annex 6.B.
II. OUTCOME
Application of split rating. As key associated outcome targets have been formally revised and because of the change of project scope (independently of the cause), the ICR will use the “split rating” method.
It is decided to consider both periods before and after the second restructuring in the assessment of the Overall Outcome Rating. In the case of the first restructuring where outcome targets were revised, the split rating approach could apply however, this restructuring took place to address an emergency situation and only 8 percent of the total funds allocation had been disbursed at the time of the first restructuring. The period before approval of the first restructuring would thus weigh very little in the final outcome rating. At the time of the second restructuring, in June 2016, 70.6% of the project funds were disbursed. The second project restructuring also entailed modifications of the project outcome targets as is most significant for the split rating assessment.
A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs
Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating
The PDOs remain highly relevant. The project highly contributes to the Government’s plan (Development National Plan) and the vision of the current Country Partnership Framework (CPF), which sets out the World Bank Group’s strategy in Madagascar for the period of FY17‐FY21, to help address structural fragilities in Madagascar. It is developed around two key focus areas: (a) increase resilience and reduce fragility, in rural and urban areas and to expand the state’s capacity to mobilize resources and deliver services at the local level with greater accountability, and (b) promote inclusive growth, to facilitate and support the development of economic opportunities by the private sector in rural and urban areas.
Rating. As a conclusion, the project PDOs are still highly relevant and aligned with the World Bank FY17 – FY21 CPF objectives. The rating for relevance of PDO is thus High.
3 As indicated in the ‘M&E design’ section, this new indicator and 4 out of the 5 remaining indicators defined as outcome-level indicators actually measure either an output or the target groups size but not an actual outcome.
Page 13 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome
PDO 1: To preserve key lifeline infrastructure
Sub-component A.1. Rehabilitation of Transport Lifeline Infrastructure • The rehabilitation of transport lifeline infrastructure covers four main areas: the rehabilitation of bridges on RN4 and RN6, the acquisition of modular bridges, the emergency rehabilitation works on National Roads (RNs), and the construction of weighing stations, all to preserve existing infrastructure and avoid traffic cut that would have terrible impacts on the regional economy. A pilot activity in urban climate resilient infrastructure was also added. • The RN4 and RN6 are vital to the West and Northern Regions, passing through half of the country’s provinces4, with about 10 million people or 40% of the total population5 in these provinces. • Because the project’s design was done under OP 8.00 for rapid response to emergencies, it was agreed since project’s inception to include a long list of works for bridges and roads as identified by the ARM in the Emergency Project Paper (EPP), being understood that this long list would be re-discussed and potentially shortened during implementation based on the feasibility studies that would be done at the beginning of project implementation. Therefore, the PDO-level and intermediate-level targets in hindsight seem to be too ambitious. This applies to the bridges and the RN rehabilitations. • Bridges rehabilitation. The rehabilitation or reconstruction of 6 bridges was achieved (the outcome target had to be reduced from 13 to 6 bridges reducing the level of expected outcome), with the 4 metallic bridges, set as the key priorities by the Government and the two longest concrete bridges requiring urgent works6. The three metallic bridges in Betsiboka (280ml), Kamoro (262.5ml), and Mahavavy (273ml) are all considered as vital for the road surface transport between the two provinces of Mahajanga and Antsiranana and the capital city, Antananarivo, as they are all located before the commune of Ambondromamy (410km from Antananarivo), where the bifurcation towards the provinces of Mahajanga (extension of RN4) and Antsiranana (RN6) is located. Should any of those bridges collapse, Mahajanga and Antsiranana, together with their surrounding regions would be isolated from the rest of the island. There is no actual possibility of detour during the rainy seasons. Such isolation would have serious economic, social, and political negative impacts, not only for the directly affected regions, but also potentially at a larger scale. The fourth metallic bridge, Mananjeba (80ml), on RN6, needed reconstruction as one of its three spans had collapsed before project preparation. The total length of those 6 bridges is 991.5ml, i.e. 91% of the total length of the initially listed 13 bridges (1,085ml).
4 The country is divided into six provinces: Antananarivo, Antsiranana, Fianarantsoa, Mahajanga, Toamasina, and Toliara. RN 4 and RN6 are directly linking the provinces of Mahajanga (West) and Antsiranana (North) to the capital city (Centre), i.e. serving three out of six provinces. The provinces were dissolved as a result of the new regional subdivision (22 regions) during the constitutional referendum of 2007, but they are listed again in the new constitution adopted in 2010. 5 Source: National Institute of Statistics (INSTAT): Total population is estimated at 25,935,060 in January 2019, and population living in the 8 Regions directly covered by the project is 9,772,179. 6 A map presenting the location of all the bridges considered under this project is presented in Annex 6, together with the key characteristics of all the initial 13 bridges.
Page 14 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
The seven bridges which were dropped from the initial target of 13 bridges could not be financed considering the overall cost increase of the bridge works. In particular, the cost for the new Kamoro bridge works was around 70% higher than the cost of a heavy rehabilitation. These shorter bridges along the RN4, while connecting the North West part of Madagascar and being important when it comes to all-season connectivity of this region of Madagascar, were ranked as lower priority considering the government’s capacity to complete these works by themselves. All works are important for connectivity in view of the vulnerability context, but prioritization became even more necessary considering the lower funds available (cf. project restructurings table) and Kamoro bridge cost increase. The initial budget allocated for all the bridges (including works, studies and supervision) went from US$22.5 million to US$29.5 million, representing a 30% increase. Since project was prepared under OP/BP 8.00, final bridge designs with final costs had to be completed during project implementation. On the Kamoro river, a new two-lane suspended metallic bridge with modern steel structure7 of 266ml and increased portance, was built contiguously to the old one, as recommended by the last feasibility study8. This feasibility study carried out during project implementation contradicts the results of previous feasibility studies. Light rehabilitation works of the old bridge, now closed to general traffic, were also financed under this project to allow for the circulation of lightweight vehicles, two-wheelers, carts, and pedestrians. As of today, this existing bridge is not used, lightweight vehicles preferring to use the new bridge. As an unintended benefit, the site of the Kamoro bridges became a learning site for student engineers and the Ministry’s engineers, contributing to the Client’s capacity strengthening. Both bridges are considered as national patrimonies and were praised by the President of the Republic in 2017 as being an important national achievement for another century. Works completed were of good quality and in compliance with high construction standards, despite delays in works completion. At completion, the maximum truck load accepted on the Betsiboka, Mahavavy, and Kamoro bridges went from 25 to 44 tons. The average weight of trucks circulating on the RN4 is 40 tons (maximum weight authorized is 44 tons). On the new two-lane bridge of Kamoro, a load test was carried out with 6 trucks of 24 tons each, i.e. 144 tons in total. Similar tests were carried out on Manambatromby and Malazarivo on RN6, two-lane bridges, with 4 trucks of 30 tons each, i.e. a total of 120 tons. On Betsiboka, one-lane bridge, the test was done with 2 trucks of 30 tons each, i.e. 60 tons. It’s important to note that no proper economic analysis was carried out as part of the last feasibility study recommending the construction of the new Kamoro bridge. In the table below are figures comparing the current situation for the Kamoro and Betsiboka bridges:
7 The cortene steel is developed to reduce maintenance frequencies requirements and to eliminate the need for maintenance painting and form a stable rust-like appearance when exposed to the weather for several years. 8 The study justified such recommendation based on their prevision of traffic (as the capacity of the existing bridge was already scheduled to be outweighed), requiring a two-lane bridge, for the following reasons: (i) to accommodate the traffic rapid increase; (ii) to increase the bridge’s portance and save time, as trucks circulating on the RN4 are bigger and heavier; (iv) to improve road safety (especially during night time), as traffic management is no more necessary from both ends of the bridge. Those advantages assessed qualitatively were the justification provided for the cost difference and approved by the Bank team, as the new bridge return on investment over the 10, 20 and 50 years would likely be higher. This was not validated by a proper economic analysis.
Page 15 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Kamoro (RN4) Betsiboka (RN4) Intervention completed New construction of 2-lane bridge and light Rehabilitation of existing one- rehabilitation of existing one-lane bridge lane bridge Current traffic (as of 2018) AADT 409 AADT 612 Estimated cost (initial 10.4 million (for rehabilitation works of 4 million allocation) existing bridge) Final cost 17.1 million (15 million for new bridge and 3.3 million around 2 million for existing bridge) Maximum capacity of existing 90 veh/h (not exceeded) 180 veh/h (not exceeded) one-lane bridge as per the feasibility study
• Emergency rehabilitation works on RNs. The revised target of 460 km (instead of 800 km) was achieved, i.e. a decrease of around 43% from the original design. As per the EPP, the objective of the project was to help to do spot repairs for damages caused by cyclones, not to rehabilitate the whole length of the selected roads. The EPP contained an initial objective of rehabilitation of 800km of non-rural roads which had to be revised, reducing the scope by dropping works on RN 6, 7, 12 and 25 in 2015 due to lack of funding as previously indicated (reallocation of funds to locust campaign during first restructuring, bridge cost increases compared to appraisal values). Quality of works on RN4 was generally satisfactory based on the technical specifications for spot improvements for ARM, which require lighter interventions compared to regular rehabilitation works. However, a few spots rehabilitated in 2015 were damaged 2 years and a half after completion of the road repairs, as the length of road or “number of spots” to be maintained was favored instead of the quality of the works. Finally, as observed in one section in Tsaramandroso, longer-term solutions may be required, demanding more important investments (dike swelling clay underneath the carriageway requiring new alignment for reconstruction purposes) including enhanced maintenance and road safety practices. • The number of “direct project beneficiaries” (outcome indicator PDO 1), i.e. population living in the interventions’ catchment areas, decreased de facto as around 43% of road sections (in km) and 7 out of 13 bridges planned for maintenance or rehabilitation were dropped. The initial project outcome target, or theoretically expected outcome level, would not have been met without the second restructuring, but was fully met after the second restructuring.
• Modular bridges reconstruction/acquisition and Toamasina port works. Reconstruction or acquisition of 185m of modular bridges was achieved, exceeding the target of 164m. These modular bridges are temporary structures that are useful when a bridge collapses to ensure traffic continuation before completion of permanent bridge structures. Regarding the port of Toamasina, all works carried out were done successfully and all equipment was acquired, despite delays: this allows this country’s main port, through which 80 percent of the country’s imports transit, to remain compliant with the ISPS code.
• Weighing stations. The initial target of constructing 8 stations was exceeded, with 10 fully functional weighing stations successfully built and operated by ARM. The acquisition of weighing stations equipment and construction of weighing stations started upon the project’s effectiveness and for the most part before the launch of the corresponding bridge works, in particular at the sites of Mananjeba and Betsiboka bridges. This definitely contributed to the preservation of these key bridges, as the average weight of trucks circulating on RN4 was more than 40tons, which was well above the 25tons theoretical maximum portance capacity of those ageing bridges.
Page 16 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
The project ensured close collaboration with local Administration and police forces to enforce those “new” requirements, as lobbies of oil and gas transporters in particular stood up against those measures. The project pioneered this experience, which is now being duplicated by other multi-lateral donors, especially EU and AfDB. These new stations located at strategic locations will help the government achieve the objective of preserving the road infrastructure by (a) controlling vehicles weight along the national road network, (b) recovering fees for overweight trucks, and (c) improving road safety. Tax recovery efforts, beyond fuel taxes collected by the Road Maintenance Fund (FER) via petrol companies, are important to maintain and rehabilitate the road network as the current loss due to road infrastructure degradation is estimated at US$45 equivalent million per year. Even more so when considering that the FER is not currently performing well, as taxes collected from petrol companies are not systematically recovered in full, nor adequately used for their main purposes.
• A pilot urban climate resilient infrastructure in Antananarivo was also supported by the project to showcase climate resilient design for urban road infrastructure, as the capital city is regularly subject to flood, with subsequent damages on the pavements and inconveniences for the population. Investments consisted in re- dimensioning drainages structures, reinforcing pavement structures, and reinforcing road safety. About 1km of road in a crowded area, sensitive to flood, was selected by the Government, in coordination with the Commune of the City of Antananarivo. Relevant works were duly completed.
• Larger impacts of transport investment. Thanks to those transport interventions on RN4 and up to RN69 (see map in Annex 6-E presenting the project’s areas of interventions), the project directly affected the lives of the people living in the catchment areas of the project’s interventions. The investment also somewhat contributed to address the issue related to the country gas supply: issue due to a strict implementation of the axle load control measures caused overloaded trucks to proceed to the transshipment of their cargo, and had impacts not only in the regions served by the RN4, but also in the capital city, up to the regions towards the southern part of the country, as cooking gas come from the port of Mahajanga before being dispatched throughout the country by road.
Sub-component A.2. Rehabilitation of Community-level Basic Infrastructure. The targets of this sub-component were achieved and/or exceeded in three main sectorial areas (health, education, and rural roads), as explained below.
• Rehabilitation of schools represents the largest part of infrastructure rehabilitation, with a total of 148 rehabilitated schools, with 482 classrooms (vs. an initial estimate of 300), as those works were prioritized by the beneficiary Communes. The Interim Education Plan (PIE or Plan d´Éducation Intérimaire) covering the period 2013-2015 and developed by the Ministry of Education had the overall objective of maintaining the functioning of the education system during the crisis (and in particular the reconstruction or rehabilitation of 451 rooms in 2015). The project has therefore largely contributed to the achievement of those Education sector’s objectives.
• Rehabilitation of basic health care centers (CSB or Centres de Santé de Base). FID completed the rehabilitation of 23 health centers. The Interim Plan of the Ministry of Health for 2012-2013 envisaged the implementation of a package of activities to improve access to care and the availability of quality health services, particularly the
9 RN4 and RN6 cover 8 regions: Analamanga, Bestiboka, Boeny, Bongolava, Diana, Itasy, SAVA and Sofia.
Page 17 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
rehabilitation of 25 CSB. The project therefore contributed to the achievement of the objectives of the interim plan and it should be noted that in most cases, the rehabilitated health center is the only public health facility in the municipality, and serves about twenty Fokontany, or several thousand inhabitants in its catchment area.
• Rehabilitation of access roads. The preservation of the road network is one of the main orientations of the National Transport Policy. The deterioration of road infrastructure constitutes a major challenge and generates considerable obstacles to development. The implementation of sub-component A2, through the rehabilitation of rural access roads (outside the National Roads), has therefore contributed to the achievement of the objectives of the government in this area. The activities carried out were significant, reaching 105 kilometers of rehabilitated rural roads and allowing 101,237 people access to a road all year round.
• In addition to the activities planned at the beginning of the implementation for this sub-component, a number of interventions were added following the passage of various cyclones, namely Giovanna (2012), Haruna (2013), Hellen (2014) and Chezda (2015). Furthermore, a number of microprojects were added, because the final budget increased as a result of the exchange gain of the dollar against the Ariary. FID´s interventions have been focused on 17 regions and the rehabilitated infrastructure includes 37 access roads, 9 water supply and 6 small bridges.
Sub-component A.3. Enhancement of Disaster Risk Management Capacity. This component met its targets. The project was able to conduct relevant activities under this Sub-Component, through technical assistance, physical investments, training activities and improved emergency response processes, as demonstrated in the relevant sections of the Results Framework. A larger number of vulnerable communes (172 communes) was covered by functional flood and cyclone EWS for cyclone and flood, exceeding the revised project outcome target. The initial project outcome target (70 communes) would have been met even without restructuring. One of the other significant achievements funded under this sub-component was also the development and use of new resilient construction norms across sectors, for rural road elements, schools, health facilities, and irrigation dams. Resilient/ climate-proof construction norms for non-rural national roads were developed; such norms were already developed for road infrastructure before the project’s design, and were fully applied (in bridges rehabilitation/ reconstructions and in road structures -drainage re-dimensioning, slope stabilizations, etc.). Investments made using the anti-cyclonic norms ended up being more resilient than those made under traditional norms. Despite a higher initial cost, such investments are in the end more sustainable being more resilient to natural disasters (cyclones, floods, etc.). This fully contributed to the achievement of the objective to preserve key line infrastructures.
PDO 2: To reduce household vulnerability in targeted areas
Sub-component A.4. Disaster Recovery Contingency Funds. This sub-component, initially with zero budget, benefited from a budgetary reallocation of US$ 12 million from the other components of the project. The objective of this reallocation was to contribute to the financing of the 2013-2016 triennial locust control campaign, with the technical expertise of FAO10, and to strengthen the Government's capacity to deal with locust invasions. The World Bank,
10 FAO was involved in two contracts: one on technical assistance (international experts assistance and trainings), and the other one on supplies (pesticides, vehicles for the airbases, the survey team and transportation of pesticides, other equipment like radio, satellite phone, GPS, IT equipment, Personal Protective Equipment or PPE and surveys tools, instruments and consumables) and
Page 18 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
through this project, was the main contributor to the whole anti-locust campaign, which was successfully achieved. Land and aerial treatment were performed on 970,265ha out of an end target of 759,500ha. These activities include the acquisition of inputs and necessary equipment (pesticides, equipment and vehicles). A pesticide warehouse was also built in Toliara, where the headquarters of the locust control center is based, and which is also the closest city to the affected area. This warehouse is Madagascar's largest pesticide storage. Nevertheless, a critical safeguard issue occurred under the locust response (detailed in the ‘key factors affecting implementation’ section below), related to the disappearance of thousands of empty barrels of pesticide not discarded safely, raising very high safety concerns.
All other intermediate level indicators (flying hours contracted, quantities of pesticides delivered) were exceeded, and the number of training delivered was reached. An environmental monitoring was also realized to ensure that there are no impacts on population health and the environment. This campaign was critical to avoid a food crisis and protect vulnerable populations. According to the IFVM (Ivotoerana Famongorana ny Valala eto Madagasikara / Centre de lutte antiacridienne de Madagascar), the new locust control structure, the locust remission was reached at the end of the last campaign 2016-2017 thanks to the triennial program; furthermore, the project made it possible to control the locust invasion (declared national disaster in 2012) and laid down the foundations for strengthening the locust control center, which was continued under the then ongoing Emergency Food Security and Social Protection (P147514 or EFSSP).
Sub-component B.1. Preservation of Productive Capacity in Agriculture. For this sub-component, the Project focused on rice, the key crop in Madagascar, and adopted the integrated approach implemented under the Irrigation and Watershed Management Project (IWPM or “BVPI” Project, P074086) consisting in simultaneously rehabilitating irrigation infrastructure, promoting rice intensification activities, while protecting the watersheds to increase rice yields. Supported activities covered 7 regions: Analamanga, Itasy, Bongolava, Atsinanana, Sofia, Betsiboka and Vatovavy Fitovinany, which are characterized by an important agricultural potential and high levels of rural poverty and have suffered significant damage to their production infrastructure due to the passage of different cyclones. Target related to the preservation of productive capacity in agriculture was exceeded as shown below. Some activities (especially, the rehabilitation of small scale irrigation schemes and capacity building for water users associations) were dropped to allow for the financing of the additional US$ 2 million to contribute to the third and last phase of the anti-locust campaign. However, those dropped activities were supported under the above mentioned EFSSP.
• Project investments in small-scale irrigation infrastructure successfully increased land irrigation coverage. A total of 5,064 ha benefited from irrigation and drainage services, against a target of 4,900 ha, through 126 sub-projects with 17,500 direct beneficiaries. The Project also laid the foundations for sustainable management of irrigation infrastructure through the institutional, organizational and technical support to Water Users Associations (WUAs).
• The Project enhanced beneficiaries’ access to rice inputs (improved seeds, fertilizers, tools and associated technical assistance) by financing 337 rice intensification sub-projects in targeted areas. This technological package benefited 20,820 smallholders, including 42% of women. Rice yields in targeted areas increased from
related services (aerial surveys and treatment operations, construction of pesticide warehouse, storage and security for pesticides, logistical support services for environmental and pesticide teams)
Page 19 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
2.5 tons/ha to more than 4.5 tons/ha (outcome indicator PDO 2), thanks to the combination of intensification activities and rehabilitation/ construction of more resilient irrigation and drainage infrastructure.
• Despite the fact that this is an emergency project, the project also invested in watershed protection and management to ensure the sustainability of the investments in the irrigation infrastructure. 257 watershed protection sub-projects were financed, especially reforestation projects, forest nursery projects, lavaka stabilizations and others (stabilization of banks, planting of hedgerows, etc.) 19,035 direct beneficiaries were concerned, of whom 32% are women. These activities are expected to contribute to increased rice yield by reducing the rate of siltation in the irrigation and drainage canals, although these impacts are not immediate.
Sub-component B.2. Cash-for-Work Program. This sub-component financed a cash-for-work program for poorest households, with the goals of providing access to short-term employment while improving small-scale infrastructure at the community level. It financed cash-for-works activities following two different modalities with different objectives: (i) a food security modality (called famine/disette) that targets crisis-affected communities in chronically food-insecure areas; and (ii) a post-disaster modality that targets poor and vulnerable communities affected by natural disasters, including cyclones and floods. These two modalities were subject to a thorough re-design at the beginning of the implementation of the project, in particular the food security modality, with the objective of increasing the impact and the durability of the interventions. Fewer people were selected, but with the opportunity to be more involved in the program, through recurrent participation. Allocation of resources and selection of beneficiaries was based on poverty data and household characteristics to minimize the risk of political capture. The wage rate paid to program participants was set below the prevailing market rate to ensure minimal replacement effects. The names of selected communities and beneficiaries was disclosed to the public to ensure transparency and to minimize the risk of elite capture. The selection process ensured that at least 50 percent of beneficiaries are women. The beneficiary compensation/payment system was also made more secure, which will allow the government to easily replicate this type of program in the future in rural areas beyond the scope of this project.
Around 3,200,000 out of 3,600,000 targeted person-days of employment could be achieved through the safety nets programs, and a slightly lower number of interventions (984 out of the 996 initially planned) were carried out, but overall this sub-component was successfully completed. This difference happened because less funds were available for those two activities further to the reallocation of funds from the post-disaster cash for works to the subcomponent A2 (Rehabilitation of community-level basic infrastructure). The cyclone seasons were relatively mild and there was less need for post-disaster cash for works, while the need for infrastructure rehabilitation was more pressing as there was an important backlog of infrastructures damaged by past cyclones. At the PDO level, the final number of “beneficiaries of safety nets programs” (outcome indicator PDO 2) was 98,500, exceeding the revised 91,000 beneficiaries target (but the revised outcome target represented a decrease of around 30% from the original design). Finally, thanks to better selectivity, more women also benefited from this program at the end (62,604 vs. a target of 45,500 women).
Page 20 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating
Before the Second Restructuring
With 70.6% of total funding already disbursed, the need was identified to change PDO level targets related to the expected outcomes. Following the first restructuring, when funds available to finance initially scheduled activities were reduced and several activities had to be dropped, additional adjustments were made to reflect key decisions made over the course of two years of implementation: (a) prioritization of works on the longest bridges; (b) greater selectivity in targeting fewer beneficiaries in the Cash-for-Work program but extending their participation over time for a sustainable impact; (c) adoption of a regional approach to supporting local communities to prepare for disasters and make relevant interventions once a disaster occurs; and (d) reduction of agricultural activities to increase support for the anti-locust campaign.
The scope of large sub-components had to be narrowed due to external factors (e.g. locust invasion) or implementation matters (e.g. cost increase of bridge works, change in implementation modalities for the cash-for- work program). So prior to the second restructuring, of the 6 PDO indicators: two were on track to achieve their target objectives (average yield per hectare, anti-locust campaign), one had exceeded its target objective (communes covered by functional flood and cyclone EWS), two (1/3 for PDO 1 and 1/3 for PDO 2) were not on track to achieve their target objectives (related to the direct project beneficiaries and beneficiaries of safety nets programs), and one could not be adequately measured (“share of rural population with access to an all-season road”).
After the Second Restructuring
A wide range of achievements across sectors were observed (cf. Annex 6.D. Illustrations of Project achievements). Most of the revised targets were achieved in line with the overall objective of improving infrastructure condition and increasing income of vulnerable households. Most intermediate results indicators were achieved: • Most of the transport infrastructure outputs were completed: rehabilitation of the key bridges, spot improvement works on RN4, acquisition of modular bridges, and construction of weighing stations; • For the social protection indicators: only the number of person-days created was not achieved, which is linked to the cash-for-work sub-projects completed, for the reasons explained above (change of approach). The remaining 5 ones (3, for the rehabilitation of community-level basic infrastructure, and 2 more for the cash-for-work program) were either achieved or exceeded (the number of health facilities constructed, the number of additional classrooms built, and the rural roads rehabilitated); • The indicator for the disaster risk management capacity was achieved; • Regarding the agriculture components, the 3 indicators for the locust campaign and the one indicator for the preservation of productive capacity in agriculture were all achieved; • The newly introduced indicator to measure citizen engagement indicator was slightly exceeded. A Based on the assessment of the PDOs’ achievement against the project associated outcome targets and against the level of theoretically expected outcomes, the overall efficacy is rated Substantial (with moderate shortcomings in achievement of one or more of the outcomes) before the second restructuring and Substantial after the second restructuring.
Page 21 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
C. EFFICIENCY
Assessment of Efficiency and Rating
Because the project was prepared under OP/BP 8.00, the ex-ante economic analysis carried out at appraisal for all sub-components was only qualitative. Therefore, the Net Present Value (NPV) and Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) figures for this particular project were unfortunately not assessed at appraisal.
Expected benefits at appraisal were as follows: (a) high economic returns of up to 60 percent for road maintenance investments, as shown by experience; (b) avoidance / decrease of accidents; (c) high externality costs through important trans-boarding activities or interruption of traffic if a crossing structure collapse; (d) higher costs of the reconstruction of a collapsed bridge, in addition to the cost of a provisory bypass solution to allow traffic flows when possible; (e) higher costs because of the scarcity of public funds to deal with emergency cases; and (f) fatality and/or serious injuries costs.
Given the limited data available, the quantitative ex-post economic analysis has only been carried out for the sub- component A.1, Transport Lifeline Infrastructure Rehabilitation, the largest project component. The economic benefits were estimated based on assumptions made regarding the initial roughness of the road segments and bridges selected for rehabilitation.
The estimated EIRR for the investment package (including both bridge and road interventions) on the RN4 road network varies between 26.7 percent (initial IRI = 8) and 33 percent (initial IRI = 10). Under both road roughness assumptions, the EIRR is greater than the 12 percent discount rate, indicating that the integrated road-bridge investment along the RN4 was economically viable. Nevertheless, these results should be nuanced, considering that (a) large bridge works ended up costing 35% more than planned (cf. Annex 6.C.) and (b) severe deterioration of RN4 segments occurred after work completion before the end of the project period. Furthermore, the EIRR for the integrated investment package including the rehabilitation of the Mananjeba and Mahavavy bridges on the RN6 is estimated at 41 percent, which is greater than the discount rate of 12 percent, indicating that the bridge investment along the RN6 was economically viable. A detailed economic analysis is provided in Annex 4.
A qualitative economic assessment has been carried out for the other sub-components, as provided in Annex 4. This assessment shows that substantial direct and indirect economic benefits are likely to be generated from project’s activities completed in the other sectors.
Although no quantitative cost-benefit analysis on the investment in DRM was conducted, the building of infrastructure following the newly developed norms revealed to be more resilient to floods and cyclones, observed during subsequent episodes of disasters during the project life.
Rating. Based on the above and on the full economic analysis presented in annex, the efficiency rating is Substantial.
Page 22 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING
Rating. Based on the split rating approach and the ratings for PDOs’ Relevance (High), Efficacy (Substantial with shortcomings/Substantial) and Efficiency (Substantial), the Overall Outcome is rated Moderately Satisfactory (see table and explanations below).
The difference between this ICR rating, Moderately Satisfactory, and the last project ISR rating, Satisfactory, is due to the application of the split rating approach. This approach takes into account the outcome level expected to be achieved, linked with the initially rather ambitious PDO-level targets, and likelihood of achievement prior to restructuring.
The PDO’s achievement rating in project ISRs was “Moderately Satisfactory” before the 2nd restructuring, which is thus consistent with the proposed rating of “Moderately Satisfactory” (“4”) before restructuring in the Split Rating table below. The PDO’s achievement rating in the last project ISRs was “Satisfactory” after the 2nd restructuring, which is consistent with the proposed rating of “Satisfactory” (“5”) after restructuring in the Split Rating table below.
Table 3 - Split Rating - Overall Outcome Rating
Before second restructuring After second restructuring Relevance of PDO High High Substantial (with moderate Efficacy Substantial shortcomings) Efficiency Substantial Substantial Overall Outcome Rating Moderately Satisfactory (*) Satisfactory Numerical value of the overall 4 5 outcome rating11 Share of disbursement 70.6% 29.4% Weighted value of the 2.82 1.47 outcome rating Final Overall Outcome Rating Moderately Satisfactory (2.82+1.47 = 4.29)
(*) This rating takes into consideration the moderate shortcomings related to (a) the fact that the initial level of expected outcome prior to restructuring was not likely to be achieved for part of the project and (b) the inadequacy of some indicators (see relevant sections under the M&E rating).
11 The numerical value is the value attributed to the ratings (on a scale from 1 to 6, 6 being the highest for Highly Satisfactory rating).
Page 23 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS
Gender
The project paid attention to gender-related issues with actions under sub-components A.1, A.2 and B.2 specifically targeting women. Gender dimensions were taken into consideration during road construction on project sites. Besides, the cash-for-work program was targeting the most vulnerable groups and the selection process was designed to ensure that at least half of the beneficiaries would be women. In the end more than 60% of the beneficiaries were women. The program, with a variety of activities for non-skilled workers, was an opportunity to increase these women’s household income for the duration of the project. It also emphasized the importance of promoting equal employment opportunities and new types of jobs for women in Madagascar in the future.
Institutional Strengthening
The project supported capacity building activities to strengthen the national and local governments’ capacity regarding environmental and social issues, DRM, and road network management via the ARM. Major institutional strengthening achievements of the project are: (a) training of each IA’s Environmental and Social focal point, to ensure proper implementation of the Environmental and Social Screening and Assessment Framework (ESSAF); (b) training of the DGM technical staff to enhance weather forecasting and data analysis, as well as decentralized agencies for the use of new AWS for better disaster preparation, mitigation and response; (c) successful training and drills organized in vulnerable municipalities newly equipped with EWSs to be better prepared in case of incidents; (d) study carried out to enhance the role of the ARM, as an autonomous Road Authority. Conclusions are mixed regarding ARM: while it is currently the lead governmental agency in the road sector in Madagascar, its sustainability is regularly challenged through attempts of political interference, making continuous capacity building and its financial and administrative autonomy a continuous challenge.
Project beneficiaries, including farmers, regional agricultural agents, etc., were also recipients of targeted training. In addition to the rehabilitation of agricultural infrastructure, the project supported trainings, such as training on the use, storage and disposal of agrochemical products/inputs (like fertilizers and improved seeds), and especially training of farmers organization on technical agricultural methods. Such training was critical to promote improved agricultural practices in the country and increase the sector’s productive capacity. In addition to WUAs training about operation and maintenance of irrigation schemes, the technicians of the Regional Departments of Agriculture and representatives of contractors involved in irrigation and drainage works benefited from training about construction norms to protect infrastructure against floods (Normes de construction des Infrastructures Hydroagricoles contre les Crues et Inondations, called “NIHYCRI”) that aim to ensure sustainability of irrigation and drainage infrastructure. The main recommendation provided by the IAs at the end of the project was to deploy more systematically similar training, beyond the audience targeted under the project, for an even greater impact.
Poverty reduction
The cash for work program in chronically food insecure areas was re-designed to be more focused on poverty reduction. The goal was essentially to seek greater impact of Cash for Works activities on the chronic poverty situation
Page 24 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
of participating households. Sub-component B2 can therefore be considered a pioneer intervention and was instrumental in establishing the National Productive Safety Net Program, currently one of the main safety nets of the ministry of Population and Social protection in the country. The progressive re-design included the following:
• Improved targeting of beneficiary households through a combination of community selection and the verification of household poverty level, through a PMT survey. This instrument is now used for all safety nets implemented by the ministry of Population, and the data collected is entered in a Social Registry, a major innovation which subcomponent B2 was the first of a series of projects to support;
• The adjustment of the working periods to bring them more closely in line with the calendar of agricultural activities and the lean months, from January to June, and August to December. Participating households were allowed to work during two periods (or "interventions") of 20 and 25 days each, respectively, which gave them a higher benefit than the 25 that had been originally agreed when preparing the project, and also allowed them to work during times of the year when no agricultural activities take place;
• Extension the participation of beneficiary households over time, up to three years (six interventions), to enable households to initiate a lasting change. The participation of households had originally been limited to one “intervention” of 25 days, but it was then decided that households would participate for a longer period of time (two or three years as it is now in the national Productive Safety Net program). This longer period of participation, coupled with trainings and productive inclusion activities that were introduced with the successor projects (PURSAPS and PFSS) allow beneficiary households to graduate from the program in a more durable manner;
• Inclusion of labor-constrained households in the program: it was decided to include in the beneficiary lists, in each Fokontany where cash for works would be implemented, a number of poor families (generally around 20% of the total number of beneficiary households) who do not have any member able to work (“labor constrained”) but have a low PMT score and are therefore considered as very poor. These households receive the same benefits during the same period as the households who work, but do not have to perform any work in exchange;
• Improvement of the payment system: this has been one of the major systemic change initiated by subcomponent B2 of PUPIRV. Previously, all cash for works activities had been paid directly in cash by the AGEX (agences d´exécution, the small NGOs that manage the workers at the local level), which made error and fraud difficult to detect, and the control of the flow of funds in general more hazardous. This responsibility was taken out of the TOR of the AGEX and payment was subcontracted to payment agencies (generally mobile phone companies or in some cases microfinance institutions);
• Introduction of a complaint management system: a system was established whereby participants to the cash for works activities (and subsequently to all safety net programs of the government) were given the opportunity to lodge complaints at any time in the process (selection, work implementation, etc.). Complaints can be lodged either through a toll-free line, or by filling a form, and are entered in the management information system so their resolution can be tracked. FID produces regular reports, twice a year, to analyze the complaints and their resolutions, which also contributes to the improvement of program management processes;
• Establishment of a management information system; subcomponent B2 was also the first to be supported by a management information system, that was then extended to all safety nets. Previously, cash for work participants names were only collected by hand and lists were kept by the AGEX. All names of participants are now entered in a central database, as well as all data collected at the time of selection and enrollment in the program (including
Page 25 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
PMT data, photo of the participants, etc). This database constitutes the Social Registry where all safety net beneficiary (and some non-beneficiary) households are registered.
A randomized impact evaluation found an improvement of per capita food-consumption (17% higher than control group) and non-food consumption (9% higher than control group) which led to a decline of poverty rate: 7 percentage points of people with less than $1/day.
III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME
A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION
The International Development Association (IDA) took a careful approach to address the emergency situation and crisis ongoing at the time of appraisal in Madagascar, through the selective resumption of disbursements on projects ongoing at the time, and by deciding to use an integrated multi-sectorial approach. IDA experience from previous operations in Madagascar was utilized during project preparation, to capitalize on experience and lessons learned to prepare an emergency and integrated multi-sectorial project. This helped to mobilize human and financial resources quickly. This multi-sectorial approach also provided a platform for multiple agencies to collaborate internally and externally to find rapid and concerted solutions. The Bank also mobilized a large team to elaborate the project and ensure project readiness.
The project design was simplified as much as feasible to encompass various sectors that are not naturally linked. The team aimed at finding ways to allow those sectors to be under the umbrella of one project: the PDO was designed to allow such integration.
The M&E framework was however somehow ambitious and not allowing to quantitatively validate the achievement of actual outcomes (discussed in the ‘M&E’ section). This could be explained to some extent by the fact that the operation was prepared under the uncertainty of crisis and the emergency situation, in a Fragile State, and economic and political tensions. Infrastructure components in particular had initial targets that had to be revised during implementation once feasibility and detailed studies were updated and completed, while the project’s sub-component A.2. and second component on vulnerability reduction (cash for work and support to poor farmers) were overall ready for implementation as they did not require updated or initial feasibility studies.
The Overall Risk level was rightfully identified as Substantial during project preparation, given the crisis context in such a volatile environment. The project components’ scope with a wide array of sub-projects was thus a little ambitious.
The reduced preparation time, typical for an emergency project in a fragile country, was another factor that affected the project design. Consequently:
• The ex-ante economic analysis of the project was carried out without all required data. The justification behind the selection of road segments to be rehabilitated was thus mainly empirical. A succinct quantitative study, using existing data related to the transport infrastructure planned for rehabilitation, would have benefited the
Page 26 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
project to appropriately capture and compare planned versus actual economic benefits/impacts. While most road repairs are rightfully deemed urgent after natural disasters occurrences, lack of relevant data may in turn affect the actual outcome of road interventions. This risk was partially mitigated through the update of the existing engineering studies before the launch of works. • Implementation approaches/modalities for key activities linked with the achievement of outcome targets must be defined strategically as they may impact the final outcome. For example, the cash-for-work program’s PDO- level indicator target was reduced as program implementation modalities changed during project implementation. Similarly, targets related to bridge and road works revealed to be too ambitious, as the list of works and corresponding targeted areas were to be confirmed at the beginning of project implementation. These targets had to be reduced, thus reducing expectations in terms of outcome (by considering the priority and importance criteria provided by the Government and agreed by the project team). In case implementation modalities are considered for discussion or revision during project implementation, targets should be more conservative. • DRM physical investment prevision was not adequately targeted at the beginning: more vulnerable communes finally benefitted from the project’s activities, leading to a correction in intermediate indicators from equipment at commune level instead of regional level. More time in designing the project activities would have allowed a better targeting.
B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION
Factors subject to the control of the government and/or implementing entities
The difficulty for the IAs to find a common interest in the implementation of activities beyond their own sector, discussed during the Steering Committee (SC) meetings, required a stronger leadership able to guarantee the pertinence of all activities within the framework of a cohesive governmental strategy, adapted to the project context. Such strong leadership was observed during the project’s implementation, allowing a coordinated project’s implementation, despite its multi-sectorial components which could have made it more difficult to implement and to prioritize activities.
Discord among staff also impeded smooth project implementation. For instance, the hiring of the person needed to coordinate the implementation process across sectors (PCU coordinator) was delayed and he was not perceived as a neutral collaborator by the others. The lack of clarity surrounding his role affected the project. Issues related to the government’s financial and internal budget management (delayed payment of reimbursables, of consultant contracts, etc.) were reported a few times. On the other hand, true expertise and extra motivation from some of the staff ensured the successful implementation of the activities under their responsibilities. In this case, political leadership is important to maintain the momentum.
Major implementation delays relative to several civil works contracts, requiring two extensions of the project closing date, were mostly due to inefficient contract management from the road IA. In Mananjeba, the construction of the bridge was extremely delayed. While part of the works delay can be attributed to bad weather conditions in October 2016, inadequacy of resources (key staff and materials) deployed on site by the contractor also contributed to the delays. Weak contract management capacity of the IA was another factor. Disputes
Page 27 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
between the contractor and the supervision consultant had to be settled by a conciliator. The works took around 20 months instead of 8 months. By June 30, 2018, provisional reception of the works had been done. The contractor finalized remaining rip rap protection works a few weeks after the provisional reception.
One critical social safeguard issue, i.e. land dispute, arose towards the end of project implementation at the weighing station of Barikadimy that affected project performance. While the transfer of land property from the Army to the Ministry of Transport was cleared by the Bank’s safeguards specialists to start the weighing station works in January 2018, the team found out in April 2018 about a land dispute between the ARM and a neighbor who claimed to be the owner of a land portion on which the weighing station was being built. The dispute was brought by the ARM to the highest Court. However, the neighbor continued to mark her own delimitation to then sue the ARM as encroaching on her property. The ARM was required by the Bank to suspend the works to comply with the Bank policy. The solution found by the Bank was to modify the contour of the necessary land, to avoid further litigation.
The project faced an additional critical safeguard issue under the locust response, related to the disappearance of thousands of empty barrels of pesticide. Thousands of empty barrels had been accumulated in one place due to delays by FAO at acquiring equipment to discard the barrels safely, even though it was financed by the project. There were thus high concerns that these barrels would have been utilized to transport water in the South which was facing an El Nino drought at the time, which could have led to deaths. At the Bank’s insistence, FAO – with the support of WHO – put in place an emergency response with the Ministry with clear communication to all potentially affected districts, with search teams for the stolen barrels. The barrels were never found, and it is thought that they were sold for scrap metal.
Factors subject to the control of the World Bank
The supervision missions were carried out with a multisectoral team, which made great efforts to ensure that all aspects of the project were monitored. In addition to the supervision missions twice a year, the presence of the TTL and other key team members in the country was helpful to deal promptly with issues to be handled directly with the Client. The Bank team, for instance, timely managed the Client’s request to support them mitigating the locust crisis.
However, additional economic analyses/engineering studies would have been useful, in addition to the studies carried out during implementation, allowing the Bank to re-assess the cost and type of road/bridge rehabilitation works needed, prioritize interventions across sectors based on quantitative data. Additionally, it would have allowed the Bank to provide recommendations on suitable rehabilitation practices in order to sustain the investments (ex: RN4 severe road degradation after rehabilitation works). The M&E framework could have been improved as well when restructuring the project with a stronger focus on outcomes.
Factors outside the control of government and/or implementing entities
The locust crisis was a major hurdle to the implementation of the project as initially designed. The level of urgency prompted a rapid collaboration among donors to provide adequate funding to the Government of Madagascar, with IDA providing the most important financial contribution for the first year of the program. A
Page 28 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
collaboration with FAO was established based on their leadership and experience in anti-locust area. Overall, key objectives were achieved, but FAO’s reporting system was less transparent and outcome-oriented than expected.
IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME
A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E)
M&E Design
The multiplicity of sectors and actions covered under the project implied a multiplicity of indicators, for which a clear definition and methodology used to measure them should have been provided. Most of the project indicators had to be reformulated (lack of relevance – ex: “emergency response agencies fully equipped and functional”), had to be clarified (unclear definition and scope – ex: “direct project beneficiaries” or “participants in consultation activities”) or were not measurable (ex: “share of rural population with access to an all-season road”). While some indicators were modified after restructuring to reflect changes in activities, other indicators had to be revised to ensure that the final result could be measured (ex: “share of rural population with access to an all-season road” became “number of people in rural areas who gained access to an all-season road”). Regarding the road repair works, the indicators referred to total length of roads in km, instead of focusing on the number and nature of spot improvements over such length of roads. Lastly, the number of direct project beneficiaries was not estimated appropriately: the figures presented in the results framework refer to the total population living in the North West regions, much larger than the project’s catchment areas.
While the short project preparation timeframe is a factor to be considered, clarifying the definition and methodology to be used for all indicators during preparation is a valuable safeguard when finalizing the list of indicators. It then facilitates both project implementation and evaluation.
Besides, only 1 out of the 6 indicators defined as PDO level indicators, i.e. outcome level indicators, measures an actual outcome (i.e. the average yield per hectare – PDO 2). The number of communes covered by functional EWSs (PDO 1) is a typical output level indicator and cannot be defined as expected outcome. The number of direct project beneficiaries (PDO 1) and people gaining access to an all-season road (PDO 1) are important indicators but related to the target groups who are expected to benefit from the results (outputs, outcomes, impacts) of the project, and cannot be defined as expected outcomes. The number of beneficiaries of safety nets programs, i.e. cash-for-work programs (PDO 2), is related to the target group as well. The number of hectares to be treated/protected by the locust campaign is an output level indicator and not an outcome.
For the preservation of lifeline infrastructure, the improved condition, i.e. IRI, of roads or bridges on RN 4, 6,7,12 and 25 (or increased share of roads/bridges in good or fair condition, or improved/maintained provision of health and educational services) could have been considered as an outcome level indicator. Regarding household vulnerability reduction, in link with the cash-for-work program, the increased average income of the targeted population (i.e. beneficiaries) could have been considered as an outcome level indicator.
Page 29 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
M&E Implementation
Reporting from the Implementation Units in participative IAs on the M&E framework was regularly monitored. As indicated in previous ISRs, data collection was difficult for some indicators due to problems of data availability, methodology or data reliability (ex: “share of rural population with access to an all-season road”, “participants in consultation activities”). Further precisions were provided during project implementation by the relevant IAs. The revised indicators definitely made it easier to measure the evolution and achievement of the project’s objectives.
M&E Utilization
The project M&E findings were regularly shared with stakeholders through progress reports and the World Bank’s aide memoires after each mission or ISRs. The indicators values were useful in verifying that the project outputs were achieved or not achievable. It was instrumental when deciding to process project restructurings. As detailed in Table 2 (project restructurings), indicators were revised, removed, and new indicators added to make them more relevant.
However, the M&E data used, being output-based, provided evidence of application of inputs and achievement of outputs, without quantitative evidence of achievement of all outcomes.
Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E
Rating. Based on the above, the quality of M&E is rated Modest. There were important weaknesses in the design of the M&E system, making it less straightforward to assess the achievement of the intended outcomes and properly establish the links in the results chain. The successive changes in the RF (for the changes independent of external circumstances) also showed some lack of clarity when it comes to the methodology and framework put in place. As previously indicated, the emergency nature of the project did affect the design during preparation. Yet, during project implementation, while changes were made to the RF, some weaknesses and lack of clarity were not addressed.
B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE
Safeguards. The project was expected to have site-specific adverse environmental and social impacts. The following safeguards policies were triggered: OP/BP 4.01 (Environmental Assessment); OP/BP 4.09 (Pest Management), OP/BP 4.11 (Physical Cultural); OP/BP 4.12 (Involuntary Resettlement) and OP/BP 4.37 (Safety of Dams).
Across sectors, environmental and social matters were handled without major compliance issues by the different governmental agencies. The environmental audit performed at the end of the project did not underline major issues. Before introducing the activities to tackle the locust crisis, a specific Integrated Pest Management Plan (IPMP) was carefully developed. The IPMP provided for the development of a Health and Environmental Management Plan (HEMP) or an Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP). Regarding land acquisition for road/bridge works, most works were carried out within the existing right of way, so there were no major issues. For other works, illegal occupancy of state-owned properties was a recurrent issue, requiring relocation of the occupants and/or compensation. Details about the land dispute issue that occurred in Barikadimy and safeguard issue related to the
Page 30 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
disappearance of thousands of empty barrels of pesticides are provided in the ‘Key Factors affecting Implementation’ section.
Fiduciary. Fiduciary risk was identified as Substantial during preparation. Generally, across sectors, procurement and financial management matters were handled at a moderately satisfactory level by the different agencies. However, allegations of fraud came to light under the sub-component A.1 “Rehabilitation of Transport Lifeline Infrastructure” implemented by ARM. An in-depth fiduciary review confirmed that some irregularities had been corrected as part of project implementation during regular supervision. Other irregularities were declared “ineligible expenditures” (around the equivalent of US$ 22,000) and a reimbursement has been claimed by the Bank. The allegations have been communicated to the Integrity Vice Presidency of the WBG, per Bank’s rules, and are under review.
C. BANK PERFORMANCE
Quality at Entry
The Bank Team prepared an important project that supported the government’s priorities, which is notable in light of the country context. The PAD was especially articulate regarding the general rationale behind the project. Despite the difficult crisis context, the project was prepared in a short period of time adequately identifying the key issues it could address. The project was designed mostly with physical investments that were essential to cope with the consequences of natural disasters preceding and during the crisis. Its support to vulnerability reduction was also strategically relevant to help relieving the most vulnerable people from poverty.
The project managed to address the complexity of having to manage various sectors under the same umbrella through the definition of joint objectives which helped to maintain a coherence among disparate sectors. Besides, beyond the fact that it also reduced Bank’s internal transaction costs, the multi-sectorial design and implementation approach used under this project allowed all the involved sectors which usually work in silos to collaborate in a more integrated manner, without any sector left behind. Project preparation was carried out in full consistency with the World Bank’s fiduciary and safeguards requirements. Additional details and moderate shortcomings are presented in the ‘Key Factors affecting Implementation/Key Factors during preparation’ section.
Quality of Supervision
The World Bank’s supervision was effective in the implementation of the project. Sufficient budget and staff resources were allocated. The team understood the low capacity of the Client and operated under a quite fragile political and economic environment throughout the entire supervision period. The team ensured a very close and coordinated supervision of the operation and proactively identified and resolved threats to the achievement of relevant development outcomes, through coordinated responses to the locust outbreak (not only Agriculture sector response), team building workshop with Client counterparts, and regular joint implementation support missions twice a year (beyond specific sectorial supervisions whose outcomes were regularly shared with the other sectors during joint supervision missions). Additional details and minor shortcomings are presented in the ‘Key Factors affecting Implementation’ section.
Page 31 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Critical implementation issues that the supervision missions had to address included the important delays in the implementation of civil works, management of the outstanding social safeguard issue related to the land conflict, and the management of serious fiduciary issues. The team’s positive and problem-solving attitude (like the increased supervision missions to help finding solutions to the completion of the Mananjeba bridge, and the solution to ring fence and avoid the litigious area at the Barikadimy weighing station), combined with very close daily supervision from the Bank side to support the Client, proved to bring concrete results.
Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance
Rating. Based on the above discussion, the overall Bank performance is rated as Moderately Satisfactory, as there were moderate shortcomings in quality at entry (Moderately Satisfactory) and minor shortcomings in quality of supervision (Satisfactory). It’s worth stressing here that preparation of this emergency project in a short period of time did affect the quality at entry.
D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME
Sustainability is a critical issue in all sectors targeted under this project. The main challenge is to introduce a culture of maintenance, beyond the initial step of construction/ rehabilitation of infrastructure. Likewise, reforms need to be sustained: this includes smaller reforms (like the introduction of EWS) as well as the perpetuation of institutional reforms (such as ARM). Solutions include not only adequate financial resources, but also the willingness to sustain achievements. In the transport sector specifically, institutional reforms introduced more than a decade ago are still fragile: financial and administrative autonomy of ARM is often questioned by political leaders and needs better governance; the same observations apply to the Road Fund Authority (FER), which is facing resourcing challenges, but also needs improved governance.
Moving forward, the overall lack of data related to the government’s main infrastructure is a definite impediment to maximized development outcomes. Future projects implemented in Madagascar may consider including technical assistance activities to address it.
Considering the country’s overall vulnerability to climate risks, future natural disasters are most likely to impact the achieved outcomes. While the development of climate-proof construction norms completed under this project will help mitigate this risk, a full-fledged network vulnerability assessment is also critical to anticipate future potential damages on the national and local infrastructure and to apply these upgraded norms where required.
V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
A few lessons can be drawn from the implementation of this emergency project: a. Multi-sectorial projects can be a very good tool to address development challenges, especially in poor and fragile countries. With limited funds available and multiple needs, the approach helps to focus on priority needs from various sectors; besides, such approach is more efficient in terms of project preparation costs and impacts, as each different sector’s interventions were concentrated in the same areas, instead of being split in various areas with small amounts available. In a sense, the multi-sectorial nature of the project allowed to
Page 32 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
support to some extent an integrated regional development approach, linked with regional development objectives highlighted in country policy documents. b. Involving experienced IAs is a critical success factor, when it comes to multi-sectorial project. It allows to appropriately manage priorities and obtain good results with concrete gains in the learning curve. For example, the activities designed to reduce household vulnerability allowed for an adequate response to the most vulnerable part of the population (through support to vulnerable persons cash-for-work activities, as well as support to poor farmers); DRM-related activities showed great results because of the sound experience and strong involvement of the responsible agency. c. Effective long-term strategies for road rehabilitation and maintenance should be discussed and put in place by the government to ensure sustainability of road investments. The fact that road segments rehabilitated under the project were showing severe signs of deterioration after 2 ½ years demonstrated a lack of clear strategy. Long-term rehabilitation and maintenance strategies (type, design and cost of quality sustainable interventions, etc.) should be developed, in anticipation of future needs and damages caused by natural disasters. This would require a sound financial and network analysis and the development of a robust road asset management system, carried out with technical assistance from multilateral donors if need be. While there is a clear need to increase budget allocations for road rehabilitation/maintenance in Madagascar to achieve any strategy, government’s funding resources are limited. With regard to these financial limitations, tax collection and measures (utilizing for instance the newly constructed weighing stations, as taxes or fees are not currently fully recovered) should be discussed and implemented. Besides, less costly options such as implementing local routine maintenance groups, pilots for microenterprises, in Madagascar should be seriously considered (additional positive impacts on rural populations via job creation). d. Weak performance of contractors needs to be managed proactively, through timely dispute resolution and sound contract management. Roles of the IA, the supervision engineer and the contractor should be clarified early on to allow for appropriate response and improved contract management from the government side. However, there was one positive development on the contractor front: the project helped bring additional firms to Madagascar, thus increasing competition among contractor firms. e. It is important to ensure the scalability of successful measures piloted and/or implemented under this emergency project in the DRM, agriculture and social protection sectors, for larger target groups at the regional or national level. Measures implemented, such as (a) the provision of equipment and training for municipalities to improve post-disaster response planning and coordination, (b) the provision of innovative agricultural equipment, and (c) training to manage this equipment or use new safer agrochemical products, would significantly benefit other vulnerable groups. Scalability, for greater impact, can be ensured via specific mechanisms: replicable implementation arrangements, continuous involvement of relevant experts/trainers, structured and secure payment systems for populations in rural areas (as developed under the cash-for-work program), etc. f. Considering the multi-sectorial nature of this project and lack of quantitative data to measure the medium to long-term outcomes under this project, financing the collection of relevant current and forecast data (traffic, population impacted, income, vulnerability, etc.) can ease the implementation and evaluation of future projects. It will also help in the government’s decision-making process. As an example, allocating some funds to undertake an impact evaluation or even less costly survey work during the preparation of future similar projects for all major components would be highly beneficial. This would allow relevant stakeholders to
Page 33 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
more precisely analyze the potential impacts on the poverty level of beneficiaries and strengthen the overall story by demonstrating how people’s lives actually changed as a result of a project. g. Some of the lessons learnt from activities carried out under the project were replicated in other sectorial projects. The lessons drawn from the activities under Social Protection have contributed to a much broader Social Safety Net program with the Ministry of Social Protection which was approved in late 2016 and is heading for future expansion. Particularly, the re-design effort undertaken by FID to increase the impact of Cash for Works activities on income and consumption of beneficiaries, allowed testing and paved the way for the current Productive Safety Net program (“ACTP” program). The ACTP program has therefore been able to benefit from all the design innovations introduced during the implementation of sub-component B2 of PUPIRV and is currently one of the two main social safety net programs of the Ministry of Population, implemented by FID. Same for the activities on small-scale irrigation. The lessons learnt from this project for the irrigation and agriculture sub-component have been fed into other programs on integrated agricultural development which focus on irrigated perimeters and aim for greater sustainability, especially the Emergency Food Security and Social Protection Project (P147514) on which remaining activities of B1 were pursued and, in part, for the preparation of the Sustainable Agriculture Landscape Project (P154698).
.
Page 34 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS
A. RESULTS INDICATORS
A.1 PDO Indicators
Objective/Outcome: To preserve key lifeline infrastructure Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of people in rural Number 0.00 144800.00 53000.00 101237.00 areas (fokontany) who gained access to an all-season road 31-Dec-2013 29-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded (almost doubled), but this is a new indicator, combining two original indicators, which were:
- "Share of rural population with access to an all-season road" with a target of 11.20% and baseline of 10%, and
- "Number of rural people with access to an all-season road" with a target of 192,800 and baseline of 48,000.
Difficulty to measure above indicators, so indicators were revised to ensure their measurability by catching only the number of ADDITIONAL people who gained access to new all-season roads rehabilitated by the project, through FID. The formally revised target (53,000) is the target defined during the second restructuring.
Page 35 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Communes covered by Number 0.00 70.00 172.00 172.00 functional flood or cyclone early Warning Systems 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. The ESW equipment chosen and procured were less expensive than planned (with simpler technical requirements than the initially scheduled ones, without undermining the aimed and achieved results), so more communes could be covered with the same budget.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Direct project beneficiaries Number 8275000.00 8275000.00 9241576.00 9241576.00
31-Dec-2013 29-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Female beneficiaries Percentage 50.00 50.00 50.00 54.47
31-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2016
Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved, but the definition and scope of this indicator were revised during the second restructuring (to, and all the regions covered by the project who may have been isolated without the project's interventions).
Page 36 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
The formally revised target (9,241,576) is the target defined during the second restructuring, vs. of an initial target of 1,612,400, which only measured the number of people living around the project’s main interventions, limiting the numbers of beneficiaries to FID and key ARM roads and bridges rehabilitations.
The formally revised target was calculated with the National Statistics Institute (INSTAT) during the project restructuring. INSTAT confirmed in January 2019 that the number of those population living on the beneficiary regions, thus benefiting from the project, is 9,772,179.
Objective/Outcome: To reduce household vulnerability in targeted areas Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Average yield per hectare in Number 2.50 4.50 4.50 irrigated rice production in Project-intervention 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2015 29-Jun-2018 irrigation sites
Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Beneficiaries of Safety Nets Number 23575.00 124000.00 91000.00 98500.00 programs (number) 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Page 37 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Beneficiaries of Safety Nets Number 14098.00 62000.00 45500.00 62604.00 programs - Female (number) 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved, but target for this indicator decreased by around 30% from the original design, to reflect change in the approach to safety net (i) in light of lessons learned in other countries, and (ii) through the focus on smaller number of vulnerable people while providing more continuous support overtime (4 interventions instead of 1).
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Hectares to be Hectare(Ha) 20000.00 534000.00 759500.00 970265.00 treated/protected by the locust campaign 16-Jun-2013 31-Dec-2014 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded. Target increased by around 30% during second restructuring reflecting the additional funding allocated to the locust campaign (US$10 million and an additional US$2 million).
A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators
Component: A.1 Rehabilitation of Transport Lifeline Infrastructure
Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised Actual Achieved at
Page 38 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Target Completion Roads rehabilitated, Non- Kilometers 0.00 800.00 461.00 463.00 rural 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved, but target for this indicator decreased by around 43%, to accommodate the available budget after the reallocation of funds towards the implementation of the locust campaign, and cost increase in larger bridges civil works, mainly due to underestimation. Works initially scheduled on RN 4, 6, 7, 12 and 25 were dropped and civil works were in the end only carried out on the RN4 (to mitigate damages caused by cyclones in 2013), and on a pilot activity for urban resilient road construction in Antananarivo (3km).
Furthermore, as indicated in the EPP, it is important to note that the corresponding works were only focused on spot improvements on selected roads section, not all over the road length.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Bridges Rehabilitated or Number 0.00 13.00 6.00 7.00 reconstructed 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved, but the target for this indicator decreased by around 54% after the second restructuring, with 7 smaller bridges (averaging less than 14ml each, which could be temporarily replaced by or reparied with modular bridges in case of troubles) out of 9 were dropped, to prioritize the 4 metallic bridges. The total length of those dropped 7 bridges is 94.4ml, out of a total length of 1,085.9ml scheduled for the 13 bridges, which represents less than 10% of the total plan.
Page 39 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
The new bridge on Kamoro is to be added to the total bridges rehabilitated or reconstructed.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Length of bridges Meter(m) 0.00 0.00 1238.00 1245.00 rehabilitated/constructed (in linear meters). 31-Dec-2013 29-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. This is a new indicator introduced after the second restructuring. With the construction of the 7th bridge on Kamoro (262.5ml), the total length of bridge rehabilitated represents 1,254ml, which is 15% higher than the total length of the 13 bridges , meaning that the most important works scheduled on the key bridges were duly achieved.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Modular bridges acquired or Meter(m) 0.00 0.00 164.00 185.00 reconstructed (in linear meters). 31-Dec-2013 29-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded for this new indicator introduced after the second restructuring, while this activity has been planned since the project inception, among the basic equipment required to preserve infrastructure and allow the continuation of traffic should any bridge of smaller lengths falls or needs to be repaired.
Page 40 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Functional weighing stations Number 2.00 0.00 8.00 10.00 managed by ARM. 31-Dec-2013 29-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded. This is a new indicator, initially omitted, introduced after second restructuring, as this activity was also already scheduled since the project’s inception. This activity definitely allowed the preservation of key infrastructure, esp. the fragile longer metallic bridges, by preventing overloaded trucks to cross them.
Existing stations located at strategic locations (including port and bridges) will help the government preserve the road infrastructure by (a) controlling vehicles along the national road network, (b) recovering taxes for overweight trucks responsible for damaging the infrastructure, and (c) improving road safety.
Component: A.2 Rehabilitation of Community-level Basic Infrastructure
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Health facilities constructed, Number 3.00 19.00 21.00 23.00 renovated, and/or equipped (number) 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Comments (achievements against targets):
Page 41 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Target exceeded. Many sub-projects were covered under sub-component A.2, including small works in the health, education, water and road sectors. All health facilities rehabilitation works were satisfactorily achieved. 90% of the works were completed by end 2015.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of additional Number 21.00 190.00 288.00 482.00 classrooms built or rehabilitated at the primary 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018 level resulting from project interventions.
Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded, as education facilities rehabilitation works were prioritized by beneficiary communes. Many sub-projects were covered under sub-component A.2, including small works in the health, education, water and road sectors. All education facilities rehabilitation works were satisfactorily achieved.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Participants in consultation Number 332.00 0.00 11742.00 17500.00 activities during project implementation - 31-Dec-2013 29-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018 Community-level basic infrastructure (number)
Page 42 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded. Formally revised target changed after second restructuring because previous values were not estimated/measured adequately.
Component: A.3 Enhancement of Disaster Risk Management Capacity
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Communes covered by the Number 0.00 0.00 30.00 30.00 emergency interventions of four regional equipped 31-Dec-2013 29-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018 structures.
Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved. This indicator is the reformulation of the previous one, "emergency response agencies fully equipped and functional" to take into consideration the shift of focus to the beneficiary communes under the four regional structures, considering the poor capacity of communal emergency response agencies. No changes in the targeted values.
Component: A.4 Disaster Recovery Contingency Funds (response program to the locust invasion alert)
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Quantities of pesticides Liter 94800.00 238000.00 398300.00 476100.00 delivered 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2014 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Page 43 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of flying hours Hours 219.00 935.00 1289.00 1617.00 contracted 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2014 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of training delivered Number 7.00 10.00 10.00
31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2014 29-Jun-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Target achieved.
Page 44 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Component: B.1 Preservation of Productive Capacity in Agriculture
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Area provided with irrigation Hectare(Ha) 0.00 0.00 4900.00 5064.00 and drainage services - Improved (ha) 31-Dec-2013 29-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Revised target exceeded, to include explicitly the reference to “Improved” infrastructure, i.e. more resilient infrastructure. The previous similar indicator did not contain such reference, and the revised target value was reduced compared to the initial design, due to financing available after the first restructuring which reallocated funds to the antilocust activity.
Component: B.2 Cash-for-Work Program
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Cash for work sub-projects Number 160.00 996.00 984.00 completed 31-Dec-2013 30-Jun-2017 29-Jun-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Revised reduced target was almost achieved.
Page 45 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Person-days of employment Number 780119.00 4400000.00 3600000.00 3199394.00 created 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Revised target was not achieved, despite its reduction after the second restructuring, to reflect the reduced scope of this activity. As indicated in the main text, the number of people to be targeted by the safety nets program was narrowed down based on lessons learned from international practices and on the increase in the poorest people selected to be beneficiaries, to be more involved in the program (with 3 to 4 interventions, instead of one).
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Roads rehabilitated, Rural Kilometers 5.00 80.00 80.00 105.00
31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2016 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018
Comments (achievements against targets): Target exceeded: the cash-for-work program could cover more roads length than scheduled.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion
Page 46 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Participants in consultation Number 15916.00 0.00 57000.00 70771.00 activities during project implementation - Cash-for- 31-Dec-2013 29-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018 Work
Comments (achievements against targets): Revised target exceeded, and indicator reformulated to precise that this indicator is related to cash-for-work program, under sub-component 2. The values increased starting 2013 because the number of participants was underestimated since the beginning.
Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Percentage of registered Percentage 0.00 0.00 75.00 81.00 complaints that have been addressed by local 15-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2018 community or by FID in less than two months (citizen engagement indicator)
Comments (achievements against targets): Target slightly exceeded. This was a new indicator to introduce a citizen engagement indicator for Component Two, after the second restructuring.
Page 47 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT (as defined in the project) Objective/Outcome 1 To preserve key lifeline infrastructure 1. Number of people in rural areas (fokontany) who gained access to an all-season road Outcome Indicators 2. Communes covered by functional flood or cyclone Early Warning Systems 3. Direct project beneficiaries 1. Roads rehabilitated, Non-rural 2. Bridges Rehabilitated or reconstructed 3. Length of bridges rehabilitated/constructed 4. Modular bridges acquired or reconstructed 5. Functional weighing stations managed by ARM 6. Health facilities constructed, renovated, and/or equipped Intermediate Results Indicators 7. Number of additional classrooms built or rehabilitated at the primary level resulting from project interventions 8. Roads rehabilitated, Rural 9. Communes covered by the emergency interventions of four regional equipped structures 10. Participants in consultation activities during project implementation - Community-level basic infrastructure 1. Rehabilitated roads, Non-rural 2. Rehabilitated or reconstructed bridges 3. Functional weighing stations managed by ARM 4. Modular metallic bridges acquired or reconstructed Key Outputs by Component 5. Rehabilitated health facilities (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) 6. Rehabilitated classrooms at the primary level 7. Rehabilitated roads, Rural 8. Communes covered by emergency interventions of four regional equipped structures
Page 48 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
9. Emergency response agencies trained 10. Climate-proof construction norms for key lifeline infrastructure developed 11. Participants in consultation activities during project implementation - Community-level basic infrastructure
Objective/Outcome 2 To reduce household vulnerability in targeted areas
1. Average yield per hectare in irrigated rice production in Project- intervention irrigation sites Outcome Indicators 2. Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs 3. Hectares to be treated/protected by the locust campaign 1. Area provided with irrigation and drainage services improved 2. Cash for work sub-projects completed 3. Person-days of employment created 4. Participants in consultation activities during project implementation - Cash-for-Work Intermediate Results Indicators 5. Percentage of registered complaints that have been addressed by local community or by FID in less than two months 6. Quantities of pesticides delivered 7. Number of flying hours contracted 8. Number of training delivered 1. Area provided with irrigation and drainage services improved 2. Cash for work sub-projects completed 3. Person-days of employment created under the cash-for-work Key Outputs by Component program (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2) 4. Participants in consultation activities during project implementation 5. Percentage of registered complaints that have been addressed by local community or by FID in less than two months 6. Locust campaign implemented
Page 49 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION
A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS
Name Role Preparation Noroarisoa Rabefaniraka Task Team Leader(s) Philippe Auffret Co-Task Team Leader(s) Fabio Galli Team Member Felly A. Kaboyo Team Member Michael Morris Team Member Ziva Razafintsalama Team Member Giovanni Ruta Team Member Paul-Jean Feno Environmental Specialist Doekle G. Wielinga Team Member Joseph Byamugisha Financial Management Specialist Sylvain Auguste Rambeloson Procurement Specialist Lova Ravaoarimino Team Member Cheik Sagna Social Specialist Wolfgang Chadab Finance Officer Helene Bertaud Counsel Pauline Ravalisoamampianina Team Member Ramy Rabenja Engineer Alison Clausen Team Member
Supervision/ICR Noroarisoa Rabefaniraka Task Team Leader(s) Sylvain Auguste Rambeloson Procurement Specialist(s) Maharavo Harimandimby Ramarotahiantsoa Financial Management Specialist Ziva Razafintsalama Team Member Giuseppe Fantozzi Team Member
Page 50 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Andrea Vermehren Co-Task Team Leader(s) Doekle Geert Wielinga Team Member Julia Rachel Ravelosoa Team Member Paul-Jean Feno Environmental Specialist Peter F. B. A. Lafere Team Member Andrianjaka Rado Razafimandimby Social Specialist Rondromalala Raharimahefa Team Member Andry Herizaka Rakotoarisoa Team Member Hajalalaina Consuella Rabearivony Andrianjakanava Team Member Oceane Keou ICR Contributor Souleymane Soumahoro ICR Economist
B. STAFF TIME AND COST
Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY13 29.664 150,045.68 FY14 0 31.46 FY17 0 393.77
Total 29.66 150,470.91
Supervision/ICR FY13 8.570 71,108.20 FY14 30.161 117,974.87 FY15 35.677 202,354.24 FY16 29.413 201,633.43 FY17 26.040 126,672.04 FY18 16.222 124,718.30 FY19 16.387 90,607.97 Total 162.47 935,069.05
Page 51 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT
Amount at Approval Actual at Project Percentage of Approval Components (US$M) Closing (US$M) (US$M) Rehabilitation of Lifeline Infrastructure and Risk 72.00 78.00 108% Mitigation Reduction of Households 25.5 19.50 76% Vulnerability Project Management and 4.50 4.50 100% Coordination Total 102.00 102.00 100%
Page 52 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS
Considering the lack of data, the quantitative ex-post economic analysis has been carried out for the sub- component A.1, Transport Lifeline Infrastructure Rehabilitation, the largest project component.
Sub-Component A1: Transport Lifeline Infrastructure Rehabilitation
Given the emergency nature of the PUPIRV, basic data required for standard ex-ante cost-benefit analyses were not available at appraisal. Consequently, the economic analysis of the investments under the Transport Lifeline Infrastructure Rehabilitation relies on a cost-saving approach.
In this approach, the evaluation of the profitability of each sub-component of the project contrasts a baseline scenario without project (SOP) with an alternative scenario with project (SWP). Under the SOP, there are no significant investments, but only routine road and bridge maintenance works. Alternatively, the SWP depicts the integrated investment package for bridge rehabilitation and road improvements under the PUPIRV.
This cost-saving approach provides an indirect measure of the project’s broad social benefits accruing to the beneficiary populations of the rehabilitated infrastructures. These benefits are also direct measures of income effects arising from the reduction of road user costs along the rehabilitated network, including savings from periodic infrastructure maintenance, vehicle operation costs, travel time, and averted accidents.
The economic analysis focuses on bridge rehabilitation/construction and road improvements along the key national RN4 and RN6 road networks. Out of the sub-component’s total financial of costs of US$48.4 million, the aggregate investments along the RN4 and RN6 accounted for 67 and 33 percent, respectively (see Table 1).
Table 1. Financial and Economic Costs of Implementation Package by Road Segment Estimated Estimated Financial Cost Economic Cost Road Network Section Length (km) Work Implementation Package (US$ Million) (US$ Million) PK403 – PK564 • Kamoro Bridge, PK405+900 19.188 15.350 (Block 12) AADT: 409 161 • Deteriorated Road Segments 2.159 1.727 PK180 – PK403 • Betsiboka Bridge, PK337+900 3.899 3.119 RN4 (Block 13) • Manambatromby I Bridge, 223 PK374+254 0.959 0.767 AADT: 612 • Deteriorated Road Segments 2.991 2.393 PK9 – PK180 • Malazarivo III Bridge, PK30+651 0.959 0.767 (Block 15) 171 • Deteriorated Road Segments 2.293 1.834 AADT: 612 Total RN4 32.448 25.958
Page 53 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
PK448 – PK708 • Mananjeba Bridge, PK583+600 1.894 1.515 RN6 (Block 1) ADDT: 646 260 • Mahavavy Bridge, PK570+700 1.974 1.579 Total RN6 3.868 3.094 Other Costs 12.050 9.640 TOTAL COST 48.366 38.693 AADT: Average Annual Daily Traffic.
The main investment interventions to evaluate include: • RN 4: (i) the rehabilitation of two large bridges, namely Kamoro (US$19.2 million, including amendments and works supervision) and Betsiboka (US$3.9 million); (ii) the rehabilitation and upgrading of two small bridges, namely Manambatromby I and Malazarivo III (US$1.9 million); and (iii) emergency works on deteriorated segments along the entire RN4 road network (US$ 7.4 million). • RN6: (i) the rehabilitation of the Mananjeba Bridge (US$1.89 million); and (ii) the rehabilitation of the Mahavavy Bridge (US$1.97 million).
Economic Analysis of the Investment Package on the national RN4
Methodology This study employs the Highway Development and Management-4 (HDM-4) as the main analytical tool for the economic analysis. In line with the HDM-4 modeling standard, the economic analysis focuses on the three sections (Blocks 12, 13, and 15) of the RN4 road network, as defined by the Road Authority of Madagascar. Each block with identifiable length and routine maintenance costs (published by the ARM) is assumed to be quasi-homogeneous in terms of geometry, traffic characteristics, and roughness over its entire segment.
Using HDM-4, the estimated cost and benefit streams under the two project alternatives (SOP vs. SWP) were generated at a discount rate of 12 percent over 20 years. Key assumptions of the model included: (i) a 4-year rehabilitation period; (ii) an annual traffic growth rate of 3 percent; (iii) a salvage value of 15 percent of each bridge; and (iv) a standard conversion factor (SCF) from financial to economic costs of 0.8; (v) the International Roughness Index (IRI) after rehabilitation is assumed to vary between 2 and 3, with the upper bound (IRI = 3) reflecting in part the observations from the field.
Key Results The estimated economic indicators, including the net present value (NPV) and the economic internal rate of return (EIRR), are summarized in Table 2. Overall, the integrated investment package along the RN4 road network is economically viable. Depending on the assumed pre-intervention roughness index, the estimated EIRR varies between 26.7 percent (IRI = 8) and 33 percent (IRI = 10), which both exceed the 12 percent discount rate.
Page 54 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Table 2. Economic Analysis of Integrated Road-Bridge Investments Net Present Value EIRR Discount Rate = 12% (US$ Million) (%) Package Description Investment Package IRI = 8 IRI = 10 IRI = 8 IRI = 10 • Road: RN4 Network PK9–PK564 Aggregate • Bridges: Kamoro, Betsiboka, 66.27 97.33 26.7 33.0 Manambatromby I, and Malazarivo III
To ensure that the economic viability of the PUPIRV’s sub-component on the RN4 network is robust to hypothetical and unexpected variations in key economic parameters, a sensitivity analysis is presented in Table 3. Together, these results indicate that the NPVs remain positive with EIRRs exceeding the 12 percent discount rate for a ±20 percentage variations in traffic growth and construction costs.
Table 3. Sensitivity Analysis – Aggregate Road-Bridge Package Discount Rate = 12 % Baseline Construction Costs Traffic Growth Economic Indicators 0% (-20%) (+20%) (-20%) (+20%) NPV (US$ Million) 66.27 71.37 61.16 59.11 74.17 IRI = 8 EIRR (%) 26.7 30.0 24.1 25.8 27.5 IRI = 10 NPV (US$ Million) 97.33 102.43 92.23 89.28 105.96 EIRR (%) 33.0 37.2 29.8 32.1 33.8
To complement the analysis of the aggregate investment package along the RN4 road network, a cost-benefit analysis was also carried out for the investment package on each road section. Given the strategic importance of some of the rehabilitated infrastructures (the Kamoro Bridge, for example, connects 5 of the 22 regions of the country, including Analamanga, Betsiboka, Boeny, Sofia and Diana), this approach is expected to generate conservative estimates of the net social benefits of the relevant investment package. As shown in Table 4, the analysis by road section confirms the viability of each investment package along the RN4 network.
Table 4. Economic Analysis of by Road Sections Net Present Value EIRR Discount Rate = 12% (US$ Million) (%) Package Description Investment Package IRI = 8 IRI = 10 IRI = 8 IRI = 10 • Road: RN4 PK403 – PK564 (Block 12) Package 1 • Bridge: Kamoro 5.29 12.77 14.7 18.3 • Road: RN4 PK180–PK403 (Block 13) Package 2 • Bridges: Betsiboka and Manambatromby I 33.40 46.75 35.8 44.6 • Road: RN4 PK9–PK180 (Block 15) Package 3 • Bridge: Malazarivo III 27.58 37.81 47.7 59.8
Page 55 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Economic Analysis of the Investment Package on the national RN6
Methodology In the case of the RN6, the economic analysis focused on the Mananjeba and Mahavavy bridges located on the northern section of the road network, labeled as Block 1 by the ARM. The road section is assumed to be quasi-homogeneous in terms of geometry, traffic characteristics, and roughness.
Using HDM-4, the estimated cost and benefit streams under the two project alternatives (SOP vs. SWP) were generated at a discount rate of 12 percent over 20 years. Key assumptions of the model included: (i) a 4-year rehabilitation period; (ii) an annual traffic growth rate of 3 percent; (iii) a salvage value of 15 percent of each bridge; and (iv) a standard conversion factor (SCF) from financial to economic costs of 0.8.
Key Results Table 5 summarizes the key findings, including the estimated economic indicators: the net present value (NPV), the economic internal rate of return (EIRR), and their robustness to variations in traffic growth and construction costs (sensitivity analysis). Overall, the integrated investment project for the rehabilitation of the Mananjeba and Mahavavy bridges yields an EIRR of 41 percent, which is greater than the discount rate of 12 percent. This result is robust to unexpected variations in traffic growth and construction costs.
Table 5. Aggregate Bridge Investment Package on RN6 Discount Rate = 12 % Baseline Construction Costs Traffic Growth Economic Indicators 0% (-20%) (+20%) (-20%) (+20%) Mananjeba and NPV (US$ Million) 19.63 19.93 19.33 16.92 22.57 Mahavavy EIRR (%) 41.0 45.7 37.7 39.7 42.3
As shown in Table 6, the cost-benefit analysis by specific bridge rehabilitation project on the RN6 confirms the economic viability of both the Mananjeba and the Mahavavy bridges. The estimated EIRR for the Mananjeba and Mahavavy are 41.4 percent and 40.6 percent, respectively. These results are also robust to hypothetical variations in construction costs and traffic growth rates.
Table 6. Bridge Investment Package on RN6 Discount Rate = 12 % Baseline Construction Costs Traffic Growth Economic Indicators 0% (-20%) (+20%) (-20%) (+20%) Mananjeba NPV (US$ Million) 9.83 9.98 9.68 8.47 11.30 Bridge EIRR (%) 41.4 46.2 38.1 40.1 42.7 Mahavavy NPV (US$ Million) 9.80 9.95 9.64 8.44 11.27 Bridge EIRR (%) 40.6 45.3 37.4 39.3 41.9
Page 56 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Sub-Component A2: Rehabilitation of Community-level Basic Infrastructure
This is a demand-driven intervention in which local communities are involved in the selection of the sub- projects under the Rehabilitation of Community-level Basic Infrastructure. Initially, 175 micro-projects were planned to be carried out under the sub-component A2. Finally, 223 micro-projects were actually realized across 17 regions, suggesting an achievement rate of 127 percent. To restore access to social and economic services following catastrophic events, the sub-component A2 financed the rehabilitation of basic community social infrastructures (schools, basic health centers, etc.) and socio-economic infrastructures (trails, crossing structures, etc.). The rehabilitated infrastructures included 148 schools, 23 basic health centers, 18 rural roads totalizing 105 km, 6 small bridges, among others. The total financial costs of the sub-component A2 was about US$8.55 million, 28 percent of which covered the project management costs.
Although no specific empirical economic analysis was carried out for this sub-component due to data constraints, the overall benefit is likely to be substantial. For example, the populations directly affected by the rehabilitation of community-level basic infrastructure exceeded 500,000 individuals, including more than 100,000 users of the rehabilitated rural roads. More schools, health centers, and improved rural road networks are expected to increase economic opportunities through human capital accumulation and greater access to market and cultivable land. In a similar context, it was shown that the average economic rate of returns on rural roads and small bridges rehabilitation can be as high as 32.5 percent and 87 percent, respectively.12
Sub-Component A3: Enhancement of Disaster Risk Management Capacity
To improve the Disaster Risk Management Capacity, the sub-component A3 focused on three strategic objectives: (i) strengthen the hydro-meteorological hazard monitoring network and improve early warning systems; (ii) develop new standards for the construction of infrastructures resistant to various climatic hazards; and (iii) strengthen the capacity of national and decentralized agencies in emergency response to disasters. It is well established that natural disaster prevention measures have the potential to mitigate related deaths and destructions, and therefore generate significant economic benefits in terms of human and physical capital accumulations.
Under sub-component A3, the number of localities covered by early warning systems for flood and cyclone increased from the initial target of 70 municipalities to 302 municipalities, including 30 for flood warning systems and 272 for cyclone warning systems. That is about 6.2 million people that can be directly reached in time during natural hazards. An evaluation of the project impact, based on 40 percent of the total number of municipalities, indicated that 90 percent of the population received the alert notice on time via national and local radio stations. This suggests that expected economic benefits from enhancing disaster risk management capacity under sub-component A3 are likely to be substantial in terms of injury and death preventions, asset preservations, and resilience to unexpected weather shocks.
12 Ralaivelo, Maminirinarivo. 2011. Analyse de la rentabilité économique de cinq types de projets communautaires de base mis en oeuvre par le Fonds d’Intervention pour le Développement (FID).
Page 57 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Sub-Component B1: Preservation of Productive Capacity in Agriculture
The main activities carried out under sub-component B1 included: (i) support for agricultural intensification (337 sub-projects); (ii) the rehabilitation of irrigated micro-perimeters (126); (iii) financing of watershed protection (257); and (iv) capacity building of producer organizations and community groups (247). Overall, these interventions are expected to stimulate farming production for rice and other major crops through agricultural intensification and irrigation, as well as the avoidance of yield losses resulting from watershed protection activities. The direct beneficiaries of the projects amounted to 57,355 individuals, 50 percent of whom were women.
Agricultural data indicated that the average yield of rice production in the sub-component irrigation sites increased from 2,500 kg/ha (without project) to 4,810 kg/ha (with project), suggesting that the benefits from sub-component B1 are likely to be substantial. An economic analysis using conservative production scenarios (rice production with project: 4,500 kg/ha) carried out in the PAD estimated the Net Present Value of the benefits generated by sub-component B1 to be nearly US$3 million, with an Internal Rate of Return of 15.5 percent over an investment life of 25 years. Given that the actual rice production is higher than the conservative estimates, some back-of-the-envelope calculations would suggest that the investments under sub-component B1 are economically viable.
Sub-Component B1: Cash-for-Work Program
Overall, excluding project management costs, about US$5.86 million was disbursed for the cash-for-work program of sub-component B1. The objective of the project was to generate short-term job opportunities in crisis-affected areas while improving small-scale infrastructure at the community level. The most vulnerable households are provided with paid community work opportunities while disabled individuals who meet selection criteria benefit from unconditional cash transfer. Out of 996 initially planned activities, 984 were actually realized, suggesting an achievement rate of 99 percent. 722 cash-for-work activities were carried out in chronically food insecure areas across 16 regions, while 262 activities targeted poor and vulnerable households affected by a natural disaster (cyclone, food, etc.) across 19 regions.
The direct beneficiaries of the cash-for-work program amounted to 98,500 individuals, of which nearly 64 percent were women. This is equivalent to approximately 3.2 million person-day of work generated. Given that the program provides direct cash payments to extremely poor and vulnerable people, it is likely to generate substantial direct and indirect economic benefits and significant economic rate of returns. The indirect economic impacts may include hard-to-account for insurance against unanticipated disaster-related hardships.
Page 58 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS
A. The Borrower’s comments can be found at the link below
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/948161553573368820/
B. The Borrower’s Implementation Completion Report can be found at the link below
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/390211553573203038/
Page 59 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS
A. PROJECT RESTRUCTURINGS (FULL TABLE)
Restructurings/ Reasons Main changes Date Level 2 Due to a severe locust Activities: restructuring invasion that was Component A.4 (Disaster Recovery Contingency Funds) was modified approved by CD threatening the national to include a new activity, i.e. a response program to the locust on July 16, 2013 territory, the Government invasion alert. formally declared the state The first-year program consisted of an intensive control campaign, of national emergency. aiming at neutralizing the maximum numbers of locusts after the The Government identification of the migratory locust outbreak areas. requested a first restructuring in order to Financing: improve the Recipient’s US$10 million reallocated to sub-component A.4 from other project emergency response components: capacity (US$22.4 million - US$3 million from sub-component A.1; required for the first - US$2.6 million from sub-component A.2; locust campaign) to - US$0.4 million from sub-component A.3; mitigate the impact of the - US$4 million from sub-component B.1. locust invasion and the risk of severe food crisis. Indicators: - Sub-comp A.1: outcome target maintained / ‘roads The purpose of the first rehabilitation’ output target reduced (from 800km to 682km) / project restructuring was ‘bridges rehabilitation’ output target maintained (13); to reallocate funds in an aggregate amount - Sub-comp A.2: ‘health and education facilities rehabilitation’ equivalent to US$10 output targets maintained, but overall number of sub-projects million among existing reduced (from 177 to 125 sub-projects – 52 water and categories, in order to watershed protection sub-projects dropped); fund category (5) (goods, works and services) under - Sub-comp A.3: outcome target maintained / commune-level sub-component A.4 of the output target maintained, but overall number or scope of sub- project, to support the activities reduced; Recipient’s emergency response. - Sub-comp B.1: outcome target maintained / ‘agricultural land with improved services’ output target reduced (from 6,000 ha to 5,200 ha), and overall number of sub-projects reduced by 446 – including micro-irrigation, income-generating, watershed management, and capacity building sub-activities;
- Sub-comp B.2: outcome target maintained / output target maintained (no budget reduction);
Page 60 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
- Project beneficiaries reduced from 1,612,400 to 1,581,200;
- Participants in consultations – two indicators reduced (a) from 9,700 to 4,800 and (b) from 48,000 to 6,840;
- Additional PDO level indicator: number of hectares to be treated/protected by the locust campaign (sub-comp A.4);
- Additional intermediate result indicators: quantities of pesticides delivered, number of flying hours contracted, and number of trainings delivered (sub-comp A.4). Level 2 Nee Activities: restructuring After three years of Following adjustments were made: approved by CD implementation, several - Prioritization of road/bridge works on June 17, activities had to be o Works maintained for the most important bridges (4 metallic 2016 further adjusted: bridges and the 2 longest concrete bridges. 7 small bridges out In Transport component of the initially 13 listed bridges were dropped; due to: (i) changes in costs o Works planned on RN 6,7,12 and 25 were dropped. ‘Roads and (ii) devaluation of the rehabilitation, Non-rural’ output target reduced from 682km to SDR. 460km (works over 460 km on RN 4 completed by end of 2015). In the other components - Reduction of number of people targeted by the Cash-for-Work due to: (i) changes in the program, as implementation modalities changed, i.e. increased implementation profits for the selected beneficiaries (cf. ‘Outcome’ section); modalities; (ii) SDR - Adoption of a regional approach for local communities to better devaluation and; (iii) need prepare for disasters and make relevant interventions once a of more funds for the disaster occurs; locust campaign. - Reduction of agricultural activities (rehabilitation of small scale irrigation schemes and capacity building for water users’ associations dropped) to increase support for the anti-locust campaign.
Financing: - US$2 million reallocated to sub-component A.4 from sub- component B.1.
Indicators: - For the indicator “Roads Rehabilitated, Rural”, there was no reformulation and no changes in target value;
- All indicators but one were either reformulated for clarification (4 indicators) or were revised (17 indicators) - baseline and/or target values. Most importantly the following
Page 61 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
outcome targets were modified, as the project scope/targeted areas related to these activities decreased: o “direct project beneficiaries” (PDO 1) decreased de facto as around 43% of the road sections (km) and 54% of bridges (number) planned for rehabilitation were dropped; o “number of beneficiaries of safety net programs” (PDO 2) decreased by around 30% (from 124,000 to 91,000).
- The outcome target related to the number of hectares treated by the locust campaign increased by around 30%.
- Four new intermediate indicators were introduced: three of them reflect key project outputs that were missing from the initial M&E design under Component A (“Length of bridges rehabilitated/reconstructed”; “Functional weighing stations managed by ARM”; “Modular metallic bridges acquired or reconstructed”), and one introduces a citizen engagement indicator under Component B (“Percentage of registered complaints that have been addressed by local community or by the Development Intervention Fund (FID) in less than two months”).
Implementation Arrangements: - The size of the Project Coordination Unit (PCU) decreased (down to one person) to accommodate for the fact that the activities’ scope decreased. Level 2 To extend the project restructuring closing date for an approved by CD additional 6 months from on February 2, June 30, 2017 to 2017 December 31, 2017, to No changes to the activities, financing or indicators. accommodate for the
delays in civil works Delayed civil works/activities include: rehabilitation of implementation. Manambatromby and Mananjeba bridges; road rehabilitation works
planned in Antananarivo; construction of weighing stations in Level 2 To extend the project Barikadimy and Antsarakofafa; replacement of mobile axle scales at restructuring closing date for an three weighing stations on the RN4 and RN7; acquisition of approved by CD additional 6 months from communication equipment for the port of Toamasina. on December December 31, 2017 to 21, 2017 June 30, 2018, to accommodate for the continuous delays in civil works implementation.
Page 62 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
B. REVISED THEORY OF CHANGE (AFTER BOTH RESTRUCTURINGS) Components Activities Outputs PDOs/ LT Outcomes Outcomes - Rehabilitation of roads (non-rural) - Rehabilitation or reconstruction of bridges A.1 Rehabilitation of (number and length) Number of direct project Transport Lifeline - - Functional weighing stations managed by beneficiaries Infrastructure ARM - Modular metallic bridges acquired or reconstructed - Improved economic - Rehabilitation of health facilities growth and A.2 Rehabilitation of Number of people in rural - Rehabilitation of classrooms at the primary reduced Communiy-level Basic areas who gained access to level poverty Infrastructure an all-season road - Rehabilitation of roads (rural) through better - Communes covered by emergency Comp A: Rehabilitation of Increased number of infrastructure Lifeline Infrastructure and interventions of four regional equipped structures communes covered by flood Disaster Risk Mitigation or cyclone EWSs - Improved - Emergency response agencies trained A.3 Enhancement of emergency Disaster Risk PDO 1: Preserved key response Management Capacity - Climate-proof construction norms for key lifeline infrastructure developed lifeline infrastructure time, planning and - Participants in consultation activities during coordination project implementation A.4 Implementation Response program to Increased surface (ha) the locust invasion alert - Locust campaign implemented (quantities of treated by the locust pesticides delivered, number of flying hours campaign contracted, number of trainings delivered)
Increased average yield per B.1 Preservation of - Area provided with irrigation and drainage hectare in irrigated rice Productive Capacity in services production in project- Agriculture intervention irrigation sites
- Cash-for-work sub-projects completed Comp B: Reduction of Number of beneficiaries of Household Vulnerability - Person-days of employment created under safety nets programs the cash-for-work program
B.2 Cash-for-work - Participants in consultation activities during PDO 2: Reduced Comp C: Project Management household vulnerability and Coordination Program project implementation in targeted areas Page 63 of 70
- Percentage of registered complaints that have been addressed by local community or by FID in less than two months The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
C. ROAD AND BRIDGES CONTRACTS COSTS (SUB-COMPONENT A.1)
SUMMARY OF COMPONENT A.1 (Amounts including taxes)
Allocation Restructuring Achievement COMPONENTS (in USD) (in USD) (in USD) Bridges Rehabilitation / 20,010,000 27,535,016 26,954,837 Reconstructions RN4 and RN6 Rehabilitation of other bridges and structures on 4,840,000 1,975,137 1,975,137 RN4 Emergency Works on National Highways 4, 6, 7, 12 17,840,000 7,443,240 7,443,240 and 25 Construction of axle load 6,770,000 3,906,448 3,877,548 control stations Equipment for weighing 1,160,000 1,970,483 1,970,483 stations Acquisition of elements for 480,000 454,844 454,844 modular bridge Institutional support 2,120,000 3,891,968 3,891,968 Capacity building 280,000 338,690 338,690 Training, small repairs, works, studies and designs, procurement of equipment to 1,000,000 706,841 556,841 ensure compliance with ISPS regulations for the port of Toamasina Urban road network 0 902,388 902,388 TOTAL 54,500,000 49,125,056 48,365,977
Page 64 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
SUMMARY OF COMPONENT A.1 PER HEADING
Allocation (in USD) Restructuring: cost estimate (in USD) Achievement (in USD)
Rehabilitaiton Supplies Rehabilitaiton Supplies Rehabilitaiton Supplies COMPONENTS Consultant or and Operating Consultant or and Operating or and Operating Consultants s reconstructio equipmen costs s reconstructio equipmen costs reconstructio equipmen costs n works t n works t n works t
METALLIC
BRIDGES 1,950,000 18,060,000 3,506,569 24,028,447 3,298,390 23,656,447
9 SMALL BRIDGES 580,000 4,260,000 279,199 1,695,938 279,199 1,695,938 EMERGENCY
WORKS ON RN 1,800,000 16,040,000 398,880 7,044,359 398,880 7,044,359 CONSTRUCTIONS
FOR OVERLOAD 579,000 6,191,000 253,433 3,653,015 224,533 3,653,015 CONTROL OVERLOAD
CONTROL 1,160,000 1,970,483 1,970,483 EQUIPMENT MODULAR
BRIDGES 480,000 454,844 454,844 INSTITUTIONAL
SUPPORT 2,120,000 3,891,968 3,891,968 CAPACITY
BUILDING 280,000 338,690 338,690 EQUIPMENT &
WORKS AT PORT 1,000,000 706,841 556,841 OF TOAMASINA URBAN ROAD
RESILIENT WORKS 97,853 804,535 97,853 804,535 COMPONENT A.1 5,189,000 44,551,000 1,640,000 3,120,000 4,874,624 37,226,295 2,425,328 4,598,809 4,637,545 36,854,295 2,425,328 4,448,809 54,500,000 49,125,056 48,365,977
Page 65 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
D. ILLUSTRATIONS OF PROJECT ACHIEVEMENTS
Pictures of the multi-sectorial project’s outputs can be found at the link below.
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/703321553573620487/
Page 66 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
E. PROJECT MAPS
Page 67 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Bridges characteristics and status at the end of the project
LENGTH STATUS BRIDGES RN PK (ml) DONE DROPPED FOUR METALLIC BRIDGES (PRIORITY #1) Betsiboka RN4 337+900 280 280 Kamoro RN4 406+300 262.5 262.5 Mahavavy RN6 570+700 273 273 Mananjeba RN6 583+600 80 80 CONCRETE BRIDGES, LOT / PRIORITY #1, CLASSIFIED BY ARM Malazarivo III RN4 30+561 16 16 Manambatromby I RN4 374+254 80 80 CONCRETE BRIDGES, LOT / PRIORITY #2, CLASSIFIED BY ARM Bongomena I RN4 485+466 23 23 Bongomena II RN4 485+584 14 14 Andohandambo II RN4 490+474 21.4 21.4 CONCRETE BRIDGES, LOT / PRIORITY #3, CLASSIFIED BY ARM Ambovondramanesy : RN4 515+200 7 7 Berivotra I RN4 515+850 7 7 Berivotra II RN4 517+900 8 8 Antsalava I RN4 520+014 14 14
Page 68 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
AREAS AFFECTED BY THE LOCUST OUBREAK Source: FAO Evaluation Report of the third campaign 2015-2016
Page 69 of 70
The World Bank Emergency Infrastructure Preservation & Vulnerability Reduction Project (P132101)
Page 70 of 70