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Techniques for Disaster Risk Management and Mitigation, First Edition Section IV Ocean Hazards and Disasters 17 Tropical Cyclone–Induced Storm Surges and Wind Waves in the Bay of Bengal Prasad K. Bhaskaran1, A. D. Rao2, and Tad Murty3 ABSTRACT The Bay of Bengal and the Gulf of Mexico are the two water bodies on the globe that are most prone to storm surges generated by tropical cyclones. In this chapter, a review has been made of the storm surge problem in the Bay of Bengal region located in the North Indian Ocean. Using the contemporary numerical models, not only storm surge elevations but also coastal inundations were computed for some recent cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. These models included the interactions between storm surges, tides, and wind waves. However, it should be noted that one of the challenging issues, which still remains unsolved to a large extent, is computing the interaction between storm surges and river flooding, and the contribution of this interaction to coastal flooding and inun- dation. A dramatic example of such an interaction was during the 29 October 1999 cyclone on the Odisha coast. 17.1. INTRODUCTION setup/setdown. The worst possible scenario of extreme water level can occur when the storm surge coincides with Storm surge and wind waves are the manifestation of the astronomical high water. In the hinterland regions, surface winds blowing over the ocean surface, and turn the major damage and devastation can result from out quite detrimental in coastal areas during tropical extreme wind speed and coastal and inland floods due to cyclone activity. Tropical cyclones form over the warm torrential rainfall. ocean surface and are widely recognized as being among About 80 tropical cyclones form over the global ocean the natural geohazards that can result in enormous loss basins annually, and about 5–6% of this total number of life, property, and damage to infrastructure during form over the North Indian Ocean basin (Niyas et al., landfall and the postlandfall phase. During the landfall 2009). The east coast of India that borders the Bay of of a tropical cyclone, the worst affected areas are the low‐ Bengal is considered the most vulnerable and susceptible lying coastal regions that directly bear the brunt resulting region in the world in the context of risk associated with from abnormal rise in water levels due to extreme winds, tropical cyclones and extreme wind waves. The frequency storm surge, and wind‐wave activity. The total water of cyclones is much higher in the Bay of Bengal as com- level elevation near the coast is a combined effect pared with the Arabian Sea with a return period of about resulting from the mutual nonlinear interaction between 4–5 in a year with landfall either in West Bengal, Odisha, storm surges, astronomical tide, and wave‐induced Andhra Pradesh, or Tamil Nadu. Analysis of historical cyclone tracks clearly indicate that the State of Odisha 1 Department of Ocean Engineering and Naval Architecture, located on the east coast of India receives the highest fre- Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, West Bengal, India quency of tropical cyclone landfall followed by Andhra 2 Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Pradesh, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu. A recent study Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India on the assessment of historical cyclone tracks for four 3 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, decades in the Bay of Bengal clearly indicates a rising Ottawa, Ontario, Canada trend in the energy metrics such as Power Dissipation Techniques for Disaster Risk Management and Mitigation, First Edition. Edited by Prashant K. Srivastava, Sudhir Kumar Singh, U. C. Mohanty, and Tad Murty. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Published 2020 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 239 240 TECHNIQUES FOR DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT AND MITIGATION Index (PDI) and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of wave‐induced setup/setdown from extreme wind waves for tropical cyclones that form over the Bay of Bengal in the total water level elevation. Also, at present there is region (Sahoo & Bhaskaran, 2015). The estimated PDI a growing necessity and pressing demand to improve the for tropical cyclones in the present decade is about six quality of numerical forecasts for the atmosphere and times higher as compared with the past over the Bay of ocean due to high population density and rapid growth Bengal basin, and that has direct implications on coastal of urbanization, industrialization, and infrastructure vulnerability associated with storm surges and extreme development activities, which are progressing quite rap- wind waves over this region. Another recent study on idly along the coastal belt. In the era of information tech- coastal hydrodynamics using a coupled model for cyclone nology and advancements in computational power, it is a Hudhud in the Bay of Bengal (Murty et al., 2016) clearly need of the hour that demands accurate and re liable indicates that the size of tropical cyclones that formed information on storm surges and extreme wind waves for over this region has also increased during the present appropriate action and timely warnings to the coastal decade. Therefore in a changing climate the occurrence of community. Hence, due to the complexity involved as high‐intensity tropical cyclones along with their increase well the beneficial aspects in terms of socioeconomic in size has a direct implication on the vulnerability of implications, a detailed study is warranted along coastal coastal belts. It means that vast expanses of coastal areas of the Indian coast and that requires substantial regions are exposed to higher wind speeds, storm surge strenuous research effort. Along with the recent envelopes, differential coastal flooding scenarios, and development and advancements in high performance impact from extreme wind waves. In their study, Murty computing (HPC) systems, it has now become possible to et al. 2016 indicate that the existing parametric wind field simulate very high‐resolution models for storm surges formulation needs to be revisited and modified accord- and wind waves with a reasonably high degree of accu- ingly considering the overall radial distance in wind field racy. The importance of HPC systems in atmosphere and envelope keeping in view the increased size of tropical ocean modeling studies in terms of rapid computation is cyclones over the Bay of Bengal region. A 3/5 power‐law widely recognized in operational weather centers thereby was proposed (Murty et al., 2016) that takes care of the aiding timely warnings and advisories during tropical increased tropical cyclone size over this region. Despite cyclone events. the fact that the east coast of India is highly vulnerable to In this context, some of the recent developments in the impacts from tropical cyclone landfall, there is a numerical modeling include the implementation of state‐ growing concern and urgent demand among the scientific of‐art hydrodynamic models such as the Advanced community at present to conduct a systematic and more Circulation Model (ADCIRC) and Simulating Waves focused study to address aspects of coastal vulnerability Nearshore (SWAN), and atmospheric models like in a holistic view by considering the contributions from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in operational various environmental drivers leading to an overall centers to obtain realistic estimates of storm surges and assessment of risk and coastal vulnerability. Such extreme wind waves for the affected regions during the studies have long‐term implications and beneficial value impact of a tropical cyclone. At present, the role of an and therefore need to be planned in a holistic manner HPC system in computing power is quite evident and considering aspects of coastal, social, economic, and inevitable and allows dynamic coupling of atmosphere‐ environmental vulnerability having wide socioeconomic ocean models to run ensemble predictions as well run in a implications. real‐time mode providing realistic estimates of storm The study on tropical cyclone activity, storm surges, surge height, storm surge envelope, and associated wind‐ and associated extreme wind waves is a quite fascinating wave characteristics. In the Indian scenario, at present the subject having many challenges that have unequivocally coupled models (hydrodynamic model ADCIRC coupled drawn the attention of the scientific community world- with SWAN wave model) have proven efficacy in storm wide in order to provide better quality forecast in terms surge forecast. It involves a dynamic coupling between of cyclone track, intensity, and the probable landfall storm surge and wind waves through radiation stress and location to aid timely warnings for better emergency precisely accounts for the wave‐induced effect in the operations and evacuation measures and efficient coastal overall prediction of total water level elevation near the zone management. The archives on historical cyclone coast considering the combined mutual nonlinear inter- track records signify that each cyclone track is unique in action effects between storm surge, astronomical tides, nature, thereby posing a real challenge to the atmospheric and wind waves. Recent developments include a few case scientists and oceanographers worldwide to devise a reli- studies carried out using coupled as well stand‐alone able forecasting system to predict cyclone tracks, improve models for recent very severe cyclone cases that had land- accuracy in tropical cyclone landfall, and estimate fall along the east coast of India. The chapter provides an storm surge and associated coastal flooding and the role overview as well as discussions on the past studies carried TroPicaL CYCLONE–INDUCED STORM SURGES AND WIND WAVES IN THE BAy OF BENGAL 241 out on storm surges and extreme wind waves over the Bay intensity. Over the Bay of Bengal region, the monthly fre- of Bengal region and elucidates the recent developments quency of tropical cyclone activity portrays a bimodal dis- carried out in this field. Though significant progress in tribution, with the primary peak during November and a storm surge, wind‐wave modeling, and developments in secondary peak during the month of May.
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