13844 Federal Register / Vol. 85, No. 47 / Tuesday, March 10, 2020 / Proposed Rules

DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR (2) By hard copy: Submit by U.S. mail (3) Relevant data concerning any or hand-delivery to: Public Comments threats (or lack thereof) to L. eltoroensis, Fish and Wildlife Service Processing, Attn: FWS–R4–ES–2019– particularly any data on the possible 0073, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, effects of climate to this orchid as it 50 CFR Part 17 MS: JAO/1N, 5275 Leesburg Pike, Falls relates to habitat; Church, VA 22041–3803. (4) The extent of protection and [Docket No. FWS–R4–ES–2019–0073; We request that you send comments management that would be provided by FXES11130900000–189–FF0932000] only by the methods described above. the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico to L. We will post all comments on http:// eltoroensis as a delisted species; RIN 1018–BB83 www.regulations.gov. This generally (5) Current or planned activities Endangered and Threatened Wildlife means that we will post any personal within the geographic range of L. and Plants; Removing Lepanthes information you provide us (see Public eltoroensis that may negatively impact eltoroensis From the Federal List of Comments, below, for more or benefit the species; (6) The draft PDM plan and the Endangered and Threatened Plants information). Document availability: This proposed methods and approach detailed in it; AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, rule, the draft PDM plan, and and Interior. supporting documents (including the (7) Other relevant information the public believes we have not considered. ACTION: Proposed rule. species status assessment (SSA) report and references cited) are available at Please include sufficient information SUMMARY: We, the U.S. Fish and http://www.regulations.gov under with your submission (such as scientific Wildlife Service, propose to remove Docket No. FWS–R4–ES–2019–0073 or journal articles or other publications) to Lepanthes eltoroensis (no common at the Caribbean Ecological Services allow us to verify any scientific or name), an orchid species from Puerto Field Office website at https:// commercial information you include. Rico, from the Federal List of www.fws.gov/southeast/caribbean/. All comments submitted electronically Endangered and Threatened Plants FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: via http://www.regulations.gov will be (List) (i.e., to ‘‘delist’’ the species), due Edwin Mun˜ iz, Field Supervisor, U.S. presented on the website in their to recovery. This proposed action is Fish and Wildlife Service, Caribbean entirety as submitted. For comments based on a thorough review of the best Ecological Services Field Office. submitted via hard copy, we will post available scientific and commercial Physical address: Road 301, Km. 5.1, your entire comment—including your data, which indicates that the threats to Boquero´n, Puerto Rico 00622. Mailing personal identifying information—on the species have been eliminated or address: P.O. Box 49, Boquero´n, Puerto http://www.regulations.gov. You may reduced to the point that the species no Rico 00622. Telephone: (787) 851–7297. request at the top of your document that longer meets the definition of an If you use a telecommunications device we withhold personal information such endangered or threatened species under for the deaf (TDD), please call the as your street address, phone number, or the Endangered Species Act of 1973, as Federal Relay Service at (800) 877– 8339 email address from public review; amended (Act). We also announce the for TTY assistance 24 hours a day, 7 however, we cannot guarantee that we availability of a draft post-delisting days a week. will be able to do so. Comments and materials we receive, monitoring (PDM) plan. We seek SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: information, data, and comments from as well as supporting documentation we the public regarding this proposal and Information Requested used in preparing this proposed rule, the draft PDM plan. will be available for public inspection Public Comments on http://www.regulations.gov, or by DATES: We will accept comments We intend that any final action appointment, during normal business received or postmarked on or before resulting from this proposed rule will be hours, at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife May 11, 2020. Comments submitted based on the best scientific and Service, Caribbean Ecological Services electronically using the Federal commercial data available and be as Field Office (see FOR FURTHER eRulemaking Portal (see ADDRESSES, accurate and as effective as possible. INFORMATION CONTACT). below) must be received by 11:59 p.m. The proposed rule serves as the notice Please note that submissions merely Eastern Time on the closing date. We of initiation and, if finalized, the final stating support for, or opposition to, the must receive requests for a public determination fulfills the requirements action under consideration without hearing, in writing, at the address of a 5-year review. Therefore, we request providing supporting information, shown in FOR FURTHER INFORMATION comments or information from other although noted, will not be considered CONTACT by April 24, 2020. concerned governmental agencies, the in making a determination, as section ADDRESSES: Written comments: You may scientific community, industry, or any 4(b)(1)(A) of the Act (16 U.S.C. 1531 et submit comments on this proposed rule other interested parties concerning this seq.) directs that determinations as to and the draft PDM plan by one of the proposed rule. Because we will consider whether any species is an endangered or following methods: all comments and information we threatened species must be made (1) Electronically: Go to the Federal receive during the comment period, our ‘‘solely on the basis of the best scientific eRulemaking Portal: http:// final determination may differ from this and commercial data available.’’ www.regulations.gov. In the Search box, proposal. We particularly seek new Public Hearing enter FWS–R4–ES–2019–0073, which is information not already included in the the docket number for this rulemaking. species status assessment report Section 4(b)(5) of the Act provides for Then, click on the Search button. On the concerning: a public hearing on this proposal, if resulting page, in the Search panel on (1) Information concerning the requested. Requests must be received the left side of the screen, under the biology and ecology of Lepanthes within 45 days after the date of Document Type heading, click on the eltoroensis; publication of this proposed rule in the Proposed Rule box to locate this (2) New information on the historical Federal Register (see DATES). Such document. You may submit a comment and current status, range, distribution, requests must be sent to the address by clicking on ‘‘Comment Now!’’ and population size of L. eltoroensis; shown in FOR FURTHER INFORMATION

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CONTACT. We will schedule a public (45 FR 82480), and subsequently epiphytic species (Snall et al. 2003, p. hearing on this proposal, if requested, included it in the annual Candidate 567; Snall et al. 2004, p. 758; Snall et and announce the date, time, and place Notice of Review from 1983 through al. 2005, pp. 209–210), like L. of the hearing, as well as how to obtain 1989, determining that listing L. eltoroensis. Metapopulations are reasonable accommodations, in the eltorensis was warranted but precluded defined as a set of subpopulations with Federal Register and local newspapers by other pending listing actions of a independent local dynamics occupying at least 15 days before the hearing. higher priority. We published a final discrete patches (Hanski 1999, entire; rule in the Federal Register listing L. Hanski and Gaggiotti 2004, pp. 3–22), so Peer Review eltoroensis as an endangered species on that simultaneous extinction of all In accordance with our joint policy on November 29, 1991 (56 FR 60933). On subpopulations is unlikely. peer review published in the Federal July 15, 1996, we published the L. Populations of Lepanthes orchids Register on July 1, 1994 (59 FR 34270), eltoroensis Recovery Plan (USFWS exhibit high variance in reproductive and the Service’s August 22, 2016, 1996). We completed a 5-year status potential, high variance in mean Director’s Memo on the Peer Review review on August 24, 2015 (USFWS reproductive lifespan (Tremblay 2000, Process, we sought the expert opinions 2015). Although the review did not pp. 264–265), and few adults per of five appropriate and independent recommend we reclassify or delist this population (Tremblay 1997a, p. 95). specialists regarding the species status orchid, it did indicate that the species Less than 20 percent of individuals assessment report for Lepanthes was showing substantial improvement reproduce, and most subpopulations (60 eltoroensis. These peer reviewers have and a reduced level of threats. percent of host trees) have fewer than 15 individuals. In addition, the distribution expertise in L. eltoroensis or similar Species Information epiphytic orchid species’ biology or of individuals (seedling, juvenile, and habitat, or climate change. We received A thorough review of the taxonomy, adults) varies enormously among trees comments from one of the five peer life history, and ecology of Lepanthes and is skewed towards few individuals reviewers. The purpose of peer review eltoroensis is presented in the SSA per tree (Tremblay and Velazquez- is to ensure that our decisions are based report (Service 2019, entire), which is Castro 2009, p. 214). The lifespan of L. on scientifically sound data, available at http://www.regulations.gov eltoroensis can reach 30 to 50 years assumptions, and analyses. The peer under Docket No. FWS–R4–ES–2019– (Tremblay 1996, pp. 88–89, 114). reviewer comments will be available 0073, and summarized in this proposed However, the mean is 5.2 years, with an along with other public comments in rule. average percent mortality of 10 percent the docket for this proposed rule. Species Description per year, although this varies greatly among life stages. Survival increases as Species Status Assessment Report Lepanthes eltoroensis is a member of individual orchids reach later life A team of Service biologists, in a large genus of more than 800 orchid stages, but fewer plants reach adulthood consultation with other species experts, species. Approximately 118 species in and have the opportunity to contribute prepared a species status assessment this genus are from the Caribbean and offspring to the next generation (SSA) report for Lepanthes eltoroensis. all but one are single-island endemics (Tremblay 2000, p. 265; Rosa-Fuentes The SSA report represents a (Stimson 1969, p. 332; Barre and and Tremblay 2007, p. 207). Because compilation of the best scientific and Feldmann 1991, p. 11; Tremblay and distribution of the species is within a commercial data available concerning Ackerman 1993, p. 339; Luer 2014, p. protected national forest, access to the status of the species, including the 260). This species is a small, epiphytic moss, dispersal ability, reproductive impacts of past, present, and future orchid about 1.57 inches (in.) (4 success, and lifespan influence factors (both negative and beneficial) centimeters (cm)) tall and is survivorship more than other potential affecting the species. As stated above, distinguished from other members of human-induced threats (Tremblay 2000, we solicited independent peer review of the genus by its obovate to oblanceolate p. 265; Rosa-Fuentes and Tremblay the SSA report by five individuals with leaves, ciliate sepals, and the length of 2007, p. 207). expertise in L. eltoroensis or similar the inflorescence (Vivaldi et al. 1981, p. The reproductive success of epiphytic orchid species’ biology or 26; Luer 2014, p. 260). The Lepanthes eltoroensis subpopulations is habitat, or climate change. The final inflorescence is a long (0.03 in.; 0.75 highly sensitive to temporal variation in SSA, which supports this proposed rule, millimeters (mm)), peduncled raceme environmental conditions (Tremblay was revised, as appropriate, in response (flower cluster with flowers on separate and Hutchings 2002, entire). Further, to the comments and suggestions short stalks) with reddish flowers. No reproductive success of L. eltoroensis, as in most orchids, is pollinator-limited received from our peer reviewers. The more than two flowers are produced at (Tremblay et al. 2005, p. 6). This SSA report and other materials relating the same time, and the flowers are open obligate cross-pollinated species to this proposal can be found on the on the inflorescence for about 10 days ´ (Tremblay et al. 2006, p. 78) uses a Service’s Southeast Region website at (Melendez-Ackerman and Tremblay deceptive pollination system, typically https://www.fws.gov/southeast/ and at 2017, p. 1). characterized by very few reproductive http://www.regulations.gov under Life History events (∼ less than 20 percent chance; Docket No. FWS–R4–ES–2019–0073. For purposes of the SSA, we Tremblay et al. 2005, p. 12). Although Background considered Lepanthes eltoroensis to be a we do not know the pollinator for L. single metapopulation, the individual eltoroensis, elsewhere fungus gnats visit Previous Federal Actions trees that host the L. eltoroensis plants Lepanthes orchids (Blanco and Barboza Lepanthes eltorensis (no common as subpopulations, and the host tree 2005, p. 765) and pollinate by name) was originally recommended for aggregates as patches (USFWS 2019, p. pseudocopulation; therefore, it is likely Federal listing by the Smithsonian 16). A number of characteristics (see fungus gnats are a pollinator for L. Institution (Ayensu and DeFilipps below) suggest that a metapopulation eltoroensis. Fungus gnats do not travel 1978). In 1980, we included the species approach may be appropriate to far—perhaps tens of meters or even a among the plants being considered as understand orchid population dynamics few hundred meters (Ackerman 2018)— endangered or threatened by the Service (see USFWS 2019, pp. 14–15) and limiting pollen dispersal for L.

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eltoroensis. Most L. eltoroensis (ha) within the El Yunque (USFWS (B) Overutilization for commercial, pollination occurs among individuals 2019, p. 8). Given the amount of recreational, scientific, or educational within a host tree, resulting in high unreachable habitat that has not been purposes; inbreeding and low genetic variability surveyed, all estimates are likely to (C) Disease or predation; (Tremblay and Ackerman 2001, pp. 55– underestimate the true abundance of the (D) The inadequacy of existing 58). The seeds of L. eltoroensis are species (USFWS 2019, p. 50). Surveys of regulatory mechanisms; or wind-dispersed and require a habitat outside traditional population (E) Other natural or manmade factors mycorrhizal association for germination sites (on or just off trails) could result affecting its continued existence. and survival until plants start in discovery of additional plants These factors represent broad photosynthesis (Tremblay and (Tremblay 2008, p. 90; USFWS 2019, categories of natural or human-caused Ackerman 2001, p. 55; Tremblay 2008, pp. 18, 50, 73). In addition, since the actions or conditions that could have an p. 85). time of listing, the species has faced effect on a species’ continued existence. In evaluating these actions and Distribution and Abundance multiple strong hurricanes (Hugo, Georges, Hortense, Irma, and Maria), conditions, we look for those that may Lepanthes eltoroensis is endemic to El and we currently know of more have a negative effect on individuals of Yunque National Forest (El Yunque), individuals than at the time of listing, the species, as well as other actions or Puerto Rico. It is restricted to one indicating the species’ abundance has conditions that may ameliorate any negative effects or may have positive general area within the Sierra Palm, remained stable (with all age classes effects. Palo Colorado, and dwarf forests of the represented and in good health) despite El Toro and Trade Winds trails (USFWS We use the term ‘‘threat’’ to refer in such events, and the species has the general to actions or conditions that are 2015, p. 5) at elevations above 2,461 feet ability to recover from stochastic (750 meters) (USFWS 1996, p. 2). At the known to or are reasonably likely to disturbances (USFWS 2019, pp. 51–52). negatively affect individuals of a time of listing, the species consisted of Therefore, although the species and its an estimated 140 individual plants. species. The term ‘‘threat’’ includes habitat were harmed by the recent actions or conditions that have a direct Since then, surveys have located hurricanes (namely Maria), the previous additional individuals and impact on individuals (direct impacts), estimate of 3,000 individual plants is as well as those that affect individuals subpopulations (groups of L. etoroensis still our best estimate. on the same host tree) resulting in a through alteration of their habitat or much greater estimate of individuals Habitat required resources (stressors). The term ‘‘threat’’ may encompass—either than at the time of listing. Surveys for Lepanthes eltoroensis occurs on moss- together or separately—the source of the L. eltoroensis have been infrequent, covered trunks (i.e., host trees) within action or condition or the action or sparse, and done with varying spatial upper elevation cloud forests in the condition itself. spread and methodology, making the Sierra Palm, Palo Colorado, and Dwarf results difficult to compare over time However, the mere identification of Forest associations of El Yunque (Luer any threat(s) does not necessarily mean (USFWS 2019, pp. 34–52). However, 2014, p. 260; Ewel and Whitmore 1973, partial surveys conducted periodically that the species meets the statutory pp. 41–49), where humidity ranges from definition of an ‘‘endangered species’’ or from 2000 to 2018 have found greater 90 to 100 percent, and cloud cover is numbers of L. eltoroensis (USFWS 2019, a ‘‘threatened species.’’ In determining continuous, particularly during the whether a species meets either pp. 49–50). In addition, surveys evening hours (55 FR 41248; October 10, conducted between 2000 and 2005 definition, we must evaluate all 1990). Important habitat components identified threats by considering the indicated the subpopulations surveyed seem to be elevation, adequate along El Toro Trail and Trade Winds expected response by the species, and temperature and moisture regimes, the effects of the threats—in light of Trail were relatively stable over the 5- open/semi-open gaps in the canopy, and year period (USFWS 2019, p. 39). The those actions and conditions that will presence of moss. best available metapopulation estimate ameliorate the threats—on an is 3,000 individual plants (Tremblay Regulatory and Analytical Framework individual, population, and species 2008, p. 90; USFWS 2015, p. 5). Overall, level. We evaluate each threat and its Regulatory Framework data collected for the SSA did not expected effects on the species, then indicate a general pattern of population Section 4 of the Act (16 U.S.C. 1533) analyze the cumulative effect of all of decline, but rather natural fluctuations and its implementing regulations (50 the threats on the species as a whole. (USFWS 2019, p. 52). CFR part 424) set forth the procedures We also consider the cumulative effect The metapopulation estimate was for determining whether a species is an of the threats in light of those actions made prior to Category 5 Hurricane ‘‘endangered species’’ or a ‘‘threatened and conditions that will have positive Maria making landfall on Puerto Rico in species.’’ The Act defines an effects on the species—such as any 2017. A post-hurricane partial survey endangered species as a species that is existing regulatory mechanisms or along the El Toro Trail was completed ‘‘in danger of extinction throughout all conservation efforts. The Secretary in 2018, and found 641 total plants, or a significant portion of its range,’’ and determines whether the species meets including over 300 that had not been a threatened species as a species that is the definition of an ‘‘endangered previously identified (Mele´ndez- ‘‘likely to become an endangered species’’ or a ‘‘threatened species’’ only Ackerman 2018, pers. comm.). We note species within the foreseeable future after conducting this cumulative that this was only a partial survey; there throughout all or a significant portion of analysis and describing the expected has never been a complete census of the its range.’’ The Act requires that we effect on the species now and in the entire metapopulation because most of determine whether any species is an foreseeable future. the areas off the two main trails (El Toro ‘‘endangered species’’ or a ‘‘threatened The Act does not define the term and Trade Winds) are dangerous and species’’ because of any of the following ‘‘foreseeable future,’’ which appears in inaccessible. However, the forest types factors: the statutory definition of ‘‘threatened Lepanthes eltoroensis is most affiliated (A) The present or threatened species.’’ Our implementing regulations with—Palo Colorado, Sierra Palm, and destruction, modification, or at 50 CFR 424.11(d) set forth a Dwarf Forest—cover over 13,000 acres curtailment of its habitat or range; framework for evaluating the foreseeable

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future on a case-by-case basis. The term E), and collection (Factor B) (56 FR known populations of L. eltoroensis foreseeable future extends only so far 60933, November 29, 1991, p. 56 FR occur within this wilderness area. into the future as the Services can 60935). The most important factor Scientists who have conducted reasonably determine that both the affecting L. eltoroensis at that time was research on Lepanthes eltoroensis do future threats and the species’ responses its limited distribution. Additionally, its not consider destruction, curtailment, or to those threats are likely. In other rarity made the species vulnerable to modification of this species’ habitat to words, the foreseeable future is the impacts from hurricanes, such as be a factor threatening this species period of time in which we can make unfavorable microclimatic conditions (Ackerman 2007, pers. comm.). In 2019, reliable predictions. ‘‘Reliable’’ does not resulting from numerous canopy gaps. the USFS finalized a revised land and mean ‘‘certain’’; it means sufficient to Because so few individuals were known resources management plan to guide the provide a reasonable degree of to occur, the risk of extinction was general direction of El Yunque for the confidence in the prediction. Thus, a considered to be extremely high (56 FR next 15 years. This plan specifically prediction is reliable if it is reasonable 60933, November 29, 1991, p. 56 FR includes a set of standards and to depend on it when making decisions. 60935). guidelines to protect the natural It is not always possible or necessary resources within the El Toro to define foreseeable future as a Summary of Biological Status and Wilderness, including listed species. particular number of years. Analysis of Threats Standards specific to the El Toro the foreseeable future uses the best In this section, we review the Wilderness include no salvaging of timber, no issuing permits for collection scientific and commercial data available biological condition of the species and and should consider the timeframes of plants or plant material unless for a its resources, and the influence to assess applicable to the relevant threats and to scientific purpose, no new special-use the species’ overall viability and the the species’ likely responses to those permits for facilities or occupancy, risks to that viability. threats in view of its life-history managing recreation to minimize the characteristics. Data that are typically Risk Factors for Lepanthes eltoroensis number of people on the trails, and no relevant to assessing the species’ construction of new trails (USFS 2019, Forest Management Practices biological response include species- pp. 1, 32–35). Standards and guidelines specific factors such as lifespan, At the time of listing (1991), El for at-risk (including listed) species reproductive rates or productivity, Yunque management practices such as detailed in the plan include not certain behaviors, and other establishment and maintenance of allowing collection of orchids unless demographic factors. plantations, selective cutting, trail approved for scientific purposes and making sure forest management Analytical Framework maintenance, and shelter construction were considered threats to Lepanthes activities are consistent with recovery We completed a comprehensive eltoroensis (56 FR 60933, November 29, plans (USFS 2019, p. 62). assessment of the biological status of 1991, p. 56 FR 60935). The Recovery Implementation of management Lepanthes eltoroensis and prepared a Plan further indicated that destruction practices in El Yunque has also report of the assessment (SSA report), and modification of habitat might be the improved; there is no selective cutting, which provides a thorough account of most significant factors affecting the and maintenance is minimal as both El the species’ overall viability using number of individuals and distribution Toro and Trade Winds trails receive few conservation biology principles of of the species (USFWS 1996, p. 5). visitors. Mostly researchers and forest resiliency, redundancy, and personnel use El Toro and Trade Winds representation (collectively, the ‘‘3Rs’’). Since the species was listed, several trails; therefore, few human encounters We define viability here as the ability of laws have been enacted that provide are expected (USFS 2016, p. 32). the species to persist over the long term protections to this species. In 1999, Additionally, the USFS coordinates and, conversely, to avoid extinction. We Commonwealth Law No. 241 (New with the Service to avoid or minimize have used the SSA report’s assessment Wildlife Law of Puerto Rico or Nueva impacts to a number of other federally of L. eltoroensis’ current and potential Ley de Vida Silvestre de Puerto Rico) listed species (e.g., Elfin-woods warbler, future conditions, based on the factors was enacted to protect, conserve, and Ilex sintenisii) that co-occur within the influencing the species and framed in enhance native and migratory wildlife same areas a L. eltoroensis as part of the context of the 3Rs, to inform our species. This law requires authorization their management practices in understanding of risk to the species and from the Puerto Rico Department of accordance with section 7 of the Act. our determination whether L. Natural and Environmental Resources There is no evidence suggesting eltoroensis continues to meet the (PRDNER) Secretary for any action that current forest management practices are definition of an endangered species, may affect the habitat of any species. negatively affecting the species or its whether it meets the definition of a Furthermore, part of El Yunque specialized habitat (adequate threatened species, or whether it does (including the habitat where Lepanthes temperature and moisture regimes, and not meet the definition of either an eltoroensis is currently known to occur) presence of moss) (USFWS 2019, p. 24). endangered species or a threatened was congressionally designated as the El Furthermore, based on existing laws, we species (see Determination, below). In Toro Wilderness in 2005, to preserve its expect El Yunque will remain this discussion, we summarize the natural conditions, including species permanently protected as a nature conclusions of that assessment, which like L. eltoroensis, inhabiting the area reserve and be managed for can be accessed at http:// (Caribbean National Forest Act of 2005 conservation. Therefore, we no longer www.regulations.gov under Docket No. (Pub. L. 109–118); the Wilderness Act consider forest management practices or FWS–R4–ES–2019–0073. (16 U.S.C. 1131 et seq.); U.S. Forest destruction and modification of habitat Lepanthes eltoroensis was listed as an Service (USFS) 2016, p. 32). The El Toro to be threats to the species. endangered species in 1991, due to its Wilderness consists of undeveloped rarity (Factor E), its restricted USFS lands and is managed to preserve Hurricanes distribution (Factor E), forest its natural conditions without any The extremely restricted distribution management practices (Factor A), permanent improvements or human of Lepanthes eltoroensis makes it impacts from hurricane damage (Factor habitation (USFS 2016, p. 32). All particularly vulnerable to large-scale

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disturbances, such as hurricanes and from past hurricane events without Collection tropical storms, which frequently affect active management of translocating Collection for commercial or islands of the Caribbean (NOAA 2018, species from felled host trees. recreational purposes eliminated one unpaginated). Due to its geographic In addition, associated microclimate population of Lepanthes eltoroensis location, hurricanes are more frequent changes resulting from downed trees prior to listing under the Act (56 FR in the northeastern quadrant of Puerto and landslides after severe storms (e.g., 60933; November 29, 1991). The rarity Rico, where El Yunque is located (White increased light exposure, reduction in of the species made the loss of even a et al. 2014, p. 30). Current global relative humidity) may negatively affect few individuals a critical loss to the climate models are rather poor in the growth rate of Lepanthes eltoroensis species as a whole. simulating tropical cyclones; however, populations (Tremblay 2008, pp. 89– The USFS regulations in title 36 of the the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 90). Following Hurricane Georges in Code of Federal Regulations at part 261, Change’s climate simulations suggest 1998, non-transplanted populations of section 261.9 (36 CFR 261.9) prohibit that the Caribbean will experience a L. eltoroensis had negative growth rates, collection of listed plant species in decrease in tropical cyclone frequency, while groups of plants that were wilderness areas. Additionally, since but an increase in the frequency of the transplanted to better habitats within the species was listed under the Act in most intense events (PRCC 2013, p. 10; the forest had positive growth rates 1991, other laws have been enacted that USFWS 2019, p. 56). (Benitez-Joubert and Tremblay 2003, pp. provide protections to the species from Cloud forests, where this species 67–69). Furthermore, based on data on collection or removal. Commonwealth related species, L. eltoroensis growth occurs, are much taller than other Law No. 241 (New Wildlife Law of rates may be negatively affected by vegetation and are higher in elevation, Puerto Rico or Nueva Ley de Vida excess light from gaps caused by felled making them more exposed and more Silvestre de Puerto Rico), enacted in trees during hurricanes (Fernandez et al. easily affected by high winds and in 1999, protects, conserves, and enhances 2003, p. 76). need of more time to recover post- The inherently low redundancy (the native and migratory wildlife species. disturbance (Hu and Smith 2018, p. ability of a species to withstand Specifically, Article 5 of this law 827). Heavy rains and winds associated catastrophic events) of Lepanthes prohibits collection and hunting of with tropical storms and hurricanes eltoroensis due to its limited range wildlife species, including plants within cause tree defoliation, habitat makes hurricanes and tropical storms a the jurisdiction of Puerto Rico without modification due to falling of trees, and primary risk factor. However, given the a permit from the PRDNER Secretary. In landslides (Lugo 2008, p. 368). Surveys observed stable trend from past surveys 2004, Lepanthes eltoroensis was conducted along El Toro Trail following and recent partial surveys in 2018 included in the list of protected species Hurricane Maria in 2018 focused on (USFWS 2019, pp. 39, 45–48), it appears of Regulation 6766 (Reglamento 6766 assessing the impacts to the species and that the species has the ability to para Regir el Manejo de las Especies its host trees (subpopulations). Nineteen recover from normal stochastic Vulnerables y en Peligro de Extincio´ n en host trees were not found and assumed disturbances (USFWS 2019, pp. 51–52). el Estado Libre Asociado de Puerto to be lost due to the hurricane. An Additionally, relocation has proven to Rico), which governs the management of additional nine host trees were found be a viable conservation strategy for this endangered and threatened species knocked down. In total, 641 plants, species (Benı´tez and Tremblay 2003, pp. within the Commonwealth of Puerto including seedlings, juveniles, and 67–69). Relocating plants from fallen Rico. Article 2.06 of this regulation reproductive and non-reproductive trees to standing trees following prohibits collecting, cutting, and adults, were found; 322 were found on hurricane events results in higher removing, among other activities, listed previously marked host trees (including survival of those transplanted plant individuals within the jurisdiction 191 individuals on those host trees that individuals. This management strategy of Puerto Rico. L. eltoroensis will likely were knocked to the ground), and 319 can improve and maximize species’ remain protected under Commonwealth were new individuals not previously survival and reproductive success after laws and regulations even after it is surveyed (Melendez-Ackerman 2018, hurricane events (Benı´tez and Tremblay delisted from the ESA. Commonwealth pers. comm.). Given that Lepanthes 2003, pp. 67–69; Tremblay 2008, pp. Regulation 6766 provides protection to eltoroensis does not persist on felled or 83–90). Following this recommendation, species that are not federally listed or dead trees (Benı´tez and Tremblay 2003, after Hurricane Maria, researchers from that have been removed from the ESA, pp. 67–69), we assume many of these the University of Puerto Rico and the species will remain protected 191 individuals (approximately 30 translocated some L. eltoroensis under the Wilderness provisions from percent of individuals found) will not individuals along the El Toro trail. the 2016 revised Land and Resource survive, resulting in the loss of those These individuals are currently being Management Plan for El Yunque (USFS individuals from the metapopulation. monitored to assess survival. In 2016, entire). According to this plan, However, based on previous efforts, we addition, since L. elotoroensis is part of any influences by humans on the know individual plants can be moved to the USDA Forest Service’s ‘‘Plant natural process that take place in the new host trees and do quite well, Species of Conservation Interest of El wilderness area will be to protect highlighting the feasibility of relocation Yunque’’ (USFS 2018, p. 37) and is threatened and endangered species in to increase the species’ long-term included in the 2016 revised Land and addition to human life (USFS 2016, p. viability in the context of severe Resource Management Plan that details 33). As such, the standards of the plan hurricanes such as Hurricane Maria. a management concept focused on include conducting wildlife and plant University of Puerto Rico researchers conservation, particularly to protect habitat/population surveys and translocated some of these 191 unique ecological resources (USFS monitoring in a manner compatible with individuals, but because the 2016, p.1), the USFS will continue to the goals and objectives of wilderness translocations occurred months after the implement conservation actions, such as (USFS 2016, p. 34). Additional hurricane, we do not expect survival to habitat protection, enhancement, and protection measures include not issuing be as high as if it had occurred relocation of L. eltoroensis individuals forest product permits for collection of immediately after the hurricane. following hurricanes as deemed plants or plant material in wilderness Furthermore, this species has persisted necessary. areas (unless for scientific and

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educational purposes and approved by the species’ vulnerability to extinction (Jennings et al. 2014, p. 4; Cashman et the forest biologist/ecologist), and is reduced. al. 2010, pp. 52–54). In one downscaled management strategies to design, model, precipitation is projected to Genetic Risks construct, and maintain trails to the decrease faster in wetter regions like the appropriate trail standard in order to The main genetic risk factor for the Luquillo Mountains, where El Yunque meet wilderness standards protections species is low genetic variability. The is located, and the central mountains of (USFS 2016, p. 34). effective population size (number of Puerto Rico (Khalyani et al. 2016, p. Despite the one documented instance individuals in a population who 274). In contrast, ongoing research of collection, the threat of collection is contribute offspring to the next suggests higher elevations may have a low, given that few people venture into generation) ranges from 3 to 9 percent buffering effect on declining trends in the El Toro Wilderness (Tremblay 2007, of the standing population (number of precipitation (Bowden 2018, pers. pers. comm.) and that the small size individuals in a population) (Tremblay comm.; USFWS 2019, pp.65–66). (less than 2 in. (4 cm) tall) and and Ackerman 2001, entire). In other Downscaled modeling for Puerto Rico inconspicuousness of this species makes words, for every 100 adults, maybe 9 was based on three Intergovernmental it easy to overlook (Ackerman 2007, will transfer genes to the next Panel on Climate Change global pers. comm.; Tremblay 2007, pers. generation. In addition, although emissions scenarios from the CMIP3 comm.). Additionally, this species is not Lepanthes eltoroensis can survive for up data set: mid-high (A2), mid-low (A1B), used for commercial or recreational to 50 years, most seedlings and and low (B2) (Khalyani et al. 2016, p. juveniles die (Tremblay 2000, p. 264). purposes and is not considered to have 267). Under all of these scenarios, Therefore, very few individuals are ornamental value (USFWS 2015, p. 8). emissions increase, precipitation responsible for the majority of seed Thus, there is no evidence that declines, temperature and total dry days production, decreasing the genetic collection is currently impacting increase, and subtropical rain and wet diversity as a whole in subpopulations Lepanthes eltoroensis (USFWS 2019, p. forests are lost, while all wet and moist (Mele´ndez-Ackerman and Tremblay 24) or likely to do so in the future. forest types decrease in Puerto Rico; the 2017, pp. 5–6). differences in the scenarios depends on Small Population Size and Low There is evidence for low gene flow the extent of these changes and the Reproduction in the species. Estimated gene flow in timing of when they are predicted to Lepanthes eltoroensis is less than two The smaller the population, the occur (USFWS 2019, p.67). effective migrants per generation (the The most important potential risk to greater the probability that fluctuations effective generation of the orchid) Lepanthes eltoroensis is the projected in population size from stochastic (Tremblay and Ackerman 2001, p. 54). shift of the life zones of Puerto Rico variation (e.g., reproduction and This implies that most mating is among from humid to drier. This includes mortality) will lead to extirpation. There individuals within a host tree, changes in relative area and distribution are also genetic concerns with small potentially resulting in high inbreeding, pattern of the life zones, and the populations, including reduced low genetic variability, and inbreeding disappearance of humid life zones availability of compatible mates, genetic depression (Tremblay and Ackerman (Khalyani et al. 2016, p. 275). Decreased drift, and inbreeding depression. Small 2001, pp. 55–58). Low genetic diversity rainfall in northeastern Puerto Rico (i.e., subpopulations of Lepanthes eltoroensis may be reflected in reduced genetic and El Yunque) can cause migration, are particularly vulnerable to stochastic environmental plasticity, and thus, low distribution changes, and potential events, thus contributing to lower ability to adapt to environmental extirpation of many species that depend species’ viability (USFWS 2019, p. 24). changes. If there are high rates of on the unique environmental conditions Lepanthes eltoroensis may experience inbreeding, this could lead to of the rain forest (Weaver and Gould declining growth related to the inbreeding depression, and could have 2013, p. 62). These projections may distribution of individuals among host profound long-term negative impacts to have direct implications for L. trees and demographic processes (e.g., the viability of the species (USFWS eltoroensis because the acreage of the reproductive success, survival), which 2019, pp. 28–29). However, the species lower montane wet forest life zone it can be negatively influenced by is likely an obligate cross-pollinated occupies could decrease, resulting in environmental and catastrophic risks species (Tremblay et al. 2006, p. 78), less habitat available for the species. (USFWS 2019, p. 25). Fruit production which is a mechanism to reduce Epiphytes like L. eltoroensis could is limited; therefore, opportunities for inbreeding. Additionally, this species experience moisture stress due to higher establishment are limited. Less than 20 has demonstrated the ability to adapt to temperatures and less cloud cover with percent of individuals reproduce, and changing environmental conditions (i.e., a rising cloud base, affecting their most subpopulations (60 percent of host natural disturbances) over time (USFWS growth and flowering (Nadkarni and trees) have fewer than 15 individuals. In 2019, p. 54). Solano 2002, p. 584). Due to its addition, the distribution of individuals specialized ecological requirements and Effects of Climate Change (seedling, juvenile, and adults) varies restricted distributions within the dwarf enormously among trees and is skewed The average temperatures at El forest, L. eltoroensis could be more towards few individuals per tree Yunque have increased over the past 30 adversely impacted by the effects of (Tremblay and Velazquez-Castro 2009, years (Jennings et al. 2014, p. 4; climate change than other species with p. 214). Despite small subpopulations of Khalyani et al. 2016, p. 277). Climate wider distribution (e.g., lower elevation L. eltoroensis with limited distribution projections indicate a 4.6 to 9 degrees species) and greater plasticity, thus, and naturally limited fruit production, Celsius (°C) (8.2 to 16.2 degrees reducing its viability. Predictions of life this species has continued to persist Fahrenheit (°F)) temperature increase zone changes are not expected to affect even after regular exposure to for Puerto Rico from 1960–2099 resiliency of L. eltoroensis until after disturbances. In addition, we now (Khalyani et al. 2016, p. 275). mid-century, and predictions out to estimate the species population to be Additionally, projections indicate a 2100 vary in severity of impact (USFWS 3,000 individuals, which is a significant decrease in precipitation and 2019, p.69). increase from the 140 individuals acceleration of the hydrological cycles Another potential risk to Lepanthes known at the time of listing. Therefore, resulting in wet and dry extremes eltoroensis is the increase in

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catastrophic hurricanes resulting from is and the more representation it has, species. Available data suggest that climate change. The persistence of L. the more likely it is to sustain conditions are present for genetic drift eltoroensis through repeated past populations over time, even under and inbreeding (Tremblay 1997a, p. 92). hurricanes and other storms suggests it changing environmental conditions. However, the effect of a genetic drift on has the ability to recover and adapt from the species into the future is uncertain, Resiliency disturbances, and relocation of and the most updated L. eltoroensis individuals from blown-down host trees Factors that influence the resiliency of information shows that the species has further accelerates the recovery of the Lepanthes eltoroensis include the ability to adapt to changing species post-hurricane (USFWS 2019, p. abundance and growth trends within environmental conditions (i.e., natural 73). In fact, ongoing monitoring show an host trees, and habitat factors such as disturbances) over time. Furthermore, initial positive population growth rate elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, some of the factors that we concluded of L. eltoroensis despite the loss of host temperature, canopy cover, and would reduce representation at the time trees following hurricane Marı´a presence of moss, mycorrhizal fungi, of listing, such as habitat destruction (Melendez-Ackerman 2019, pers. and pollinators. Influencing those and collection, are no longer acting as comm.). factors are elements of L. eltoroensis’ stressors upon the species. Finally, Overall we anticipate the range of ecology that determine whether because the population is significantly Lepanthes eltoroensis to contract due to populations can grow to maximize larger than was known at the time of changes in climatic variables leading to habitat occupancy, thereby increasing listing, representation has improved. loss of wet and tropical montane resiliency. Stochastic factors that have habitats, potentially exacerbated by an the potential to affect L. eltoroensis Redundancy increase in the frequency and severity of include impacts to its habitat from Redundancy for Lepanthes eltoroensis hurricanes by the end of the century hurricanes and effects of climate change is the total number and resilience of (2100). However, surveys outside of the (i.e., changes in temperature and subpopulations and their distribution areas where the species is traditionally precipitation regimes). Beneficial factors across the species’ range. This species is searched, along with an associated that influence resiliency include the endemic to El Yunque, and it has not habitat model, would help better predict protected status of the species’ habitat, been introduced elsewhere. Despite the the future viability of L. eltoroensis as the known range of the species is presence of multiple subpopulations (USFWS 2019, p. 73). Although changes entirely within the El Toro Wilderness (i.e., host trees), these subpopulations to precipitation and drought, and therefore protected from human- are located within a narrow/restricted temperature, and life zones are expected induced habitat loss and collection. range at El Toro Wilderness Area and to occur on Puerto Rico, over the next The best available surveys of are all exposed to similar specific 20 to 30 years they are not predicted to Lepanthes eltoroensis found that the habitat and environmental conditions. be substantial. Modeling shows number of individuals is greater than at Population surveys by Mele´ndez- dramatic changes to Puerto Rico through the time of listing (Tremblay 2008, p. Ackerman et al. (2018) accounted for at 2100, the divergence in these 90), approximately 3,000 individual least 61 host trees or subpopulations projections increases dramatically after plants. The distribution of L. eltoroensis prior to hurricane Maria. Of these, mid-century, making projections beyond has not been investigated outside of Mele´ndez-Ackerman et al. (2018) were 20 to 30 years more uncertain (Khalyani traditional areas (i.e., just off El Toro not able to locate 19 host trees following et al. 2016, p. 275). Moreover, L. and Trade Wind Trails); however, some the hurricane, and studies are ongoing eltoroensis is found in a protected area researchers suggest that additional to determine the species response from where synergistically damaging forest populations may occur within suitable the disturbance. Although redundancy management practices are unlikely to habitat outside El Toro Trail. In fact, is inherently low due to the narrow occur, and there is the requirement for additional individuals have been found range the species inhabits, it has implementation of conservation near, but outside El Toro Trail persisted despite past natural management practices to mitigate (Tremblay 2008, p. 90). Assuming a disturbances (i.e., hurricanes, tropical negative impacts such as those caused metapopulation size of 3,000 storms, etc.), and is considered more by hurricanes. individuals, and observed stable abundant within its habitat than subpopulations from past surveys previously documented. Summary of Current Condition (including recent partial surveys in Projected Future Status Viability is defined as the ability of 2018), this suggests the species has the the species to sustain populations in the ability to recover from normal stochastic Lepanthes eltoroensis only occurs wild over time. To assess the viability disturbances; thus, we consider the within the protected El Yunque lands of Lepanthes eltoroensis, we used the species to be moderately resilient. where stressors—including forest three conservation biology principles of management practices, urban resiliency, representation, and Representation development surrounding El Yunque, redundancy (Shaffer and Stein 2000, pp. We lack genetic and ecological and overcollection—are not expected to 306–310). Briefly, resiliency supports diversity data to characterize be present or are expected to remain the ability of the species to withstand representation for Lepanthes eltoroensis. relatively stable and unlikely to affect environmental and demographic In the absence of species-specific the species in the future. Because L. stochasticity (for example, wet or dry, genetic and ecological diversity eltoroensis occurs on protected lands warm or cold years); representation information, we typically evaluate managed by the USFS, it will benefit supports the ability of the species to representation based on the extent and from their ongoing conservation adapt over time to long-term changes in variability of habitat characteristics practices, which include the relocation the environment (for example, climate across the geographical range. Because of plants from fallen host trees after a changes); and redundancy supports the the species does not appear to have hurricane as deemed necessary, to ability of the species to withstand much physiological flexibility, given alleviate the negative impacts of these catastrophic events (for example, that it has a rather restricted distribution storm events. The effect of genetic drift droughts, hurricanes). In general, the (cloud forests on ridges), representative on the species into the future is more redundant and resilient a species units were not delineated for this uncertain, but L. eltoroensis has thus far

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demonstrated the ability to adapt to for close to 30 years, so we have a 277). However, we are not aware of any changing environmental conditions (i.e., baseline to understand how populations information that would indicate these natural disturbances) over time (USFWS have performed in that period. air temperature increases will influence 2019, pp. 51–52). The primary stressor Therefore, the ‘‘foreseeable future’’ used formation of the cloud cover over El affecting the future condition of L. in this determination is 20 to 30 years. Yunque, which could in turn impact eltoroensis is current and ongoing interior temperatures and humidity of Precipitation and Drought climate change stressors (Mele´ndez- the forest, where Lepanthes eltoroensis Ackerman and Tremblay 2017, p. 1) and In general, projections show similar is found. the associated shifts in rainfall, patterns of changes in precipitation and Life Zones temperature, and storm intensities. drought intensity and extremes, These stressors account for indirect and although total changes were greater for Dramatic changes are projected in the direct effects at some level to all life the A2 scenario (Khalyani et al. 2016, life zone distributions in Puerto Rico, stages and across the species’ range. pp. 272–273, 274; USFWS 2019, pp. 59– although the changes vary by life zone All of these climate change stressors 60). Under scenarios A2, A1B, and B1, and are predicted to be much more are predicted to result in shifts in the annual precipitation is projected to significant after mid-century. Because distribution of life zones present on decrease by 510 to 916 millimeters (mm) life zones are derived from climate Puerto Rico, with some of the most (20 to 36 in.), 354 to 842 mm (14 to 33 variables (e.g., precipitation and dramatic impacts predicted to occur in in.), and 312 to 619 mm (12 to 24 in.), temperature), general changes in life the latter half of the century in the respectively, by 2100. Current annual zone distribution are similar to changes tropical and subtropical wet forests in precipitation in Puerto Rico averages in climatic variables. For example, which the species resides (USFWS 745 to 4,346 mm (29 to 171 in.). annual precipitation changes will result 2019, p. 57). Key life-history factors that However, differences in precipitation in shifts from rain, wet and moist zones make this species vulnerable to climate between the three scenarios were greater to drier zones (Khalyani et al. 2016, p. change stressors are its restricted range after the mid-century (Khalyani et al. 275), and changes in temperature will within the tropical and subtropical wet 2016, p. 274). Before then decreases in result in changes from subtropical to forests within El Yunque and low rainfall are expected to be far less; tropical. In general, decreasing trends subpopulation sizes (USFWS 2015, pp. rainfall decreases are expected to be were observed in the areas of wet and 7–10). Given the relatively low genetic 0.0012 to 0.0032 mm per day per year moist zones, while increasing trends and environmental plasticity of the through 2050 (PRCC 2013, p. 7). were observed in dry zones under all species, it potentially does not have the Additionally, for all three climate three scenarios (Khalyani et al. 2016, capacity to adapt to these predicted scenarios, significant decreases in pp. 275, 279). Under all scenarios, loss conditions (USFWS 2019, p. 52). precipitation for the northern wet of subtropical rain and wet forests are To examine the potential future forests are not predicted until after 2040 observed, although decreasing trends condition of Lepanthes eltoroensis, we (USFWS 2019, p. 60). Furthermore, the were observed in the area of wet and used three future scenarios based on U.S. Geological Survey projection for moist zones, while increasing trends climate change predictions for Puerto Puerto Rico predicts an overall drying of were observed in the areas of dry zones Rico (Khalyani et al. 2016, entire), the island and a reduction in extreme in all three scenarios. Additionally, the which used global emission scenarios rainfall occurrence; however, this model loss of wet and moist zones in the (mid-high (A2), mid-low (A1B), and low suggests higher elevations, like those northeastern mountain area that (B1) (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000, supporting L. eltoroensis, may have a supports Lepanthes eltoroensis is not entire)) to capture a range of possible buffering effect on declining trends in predicted to be substantial, and the area scenarios. Our assessment of future precipitation (Bowden 2018, pers. remains relatively stable until after 2040 viability includes qualitative comm.). Therefore, precipitation (USFWS 2019 p. 69). This may be due descriptions of the likely impacts of declines are not likely to occur in the to possible buffering effects of elevation climate change under the above three area supporting L. eltoroensis during the across the island. scenarios from the literature, and is foreseeable future. On the other hand, In summary, changes to precipitation intended to capture the uncertainty in drought intensity increased steadily and drought, temperature, and life zones the species’ response to climate under all three scenarios, but with a are expected to occur on Puerto Rico, stressors, and the lack of information on gradual increase in drought extremes but over the next 20 to 30 years, they abundance and growth rates. (Khalyani et al. 2016, pp. 274–275). are not predicted to be substantial. This increase is linear for all three Although modeling shows changes to Climate Change Predictions scenarios. Puerto Rico through 2100, the Projections out to the year 2100 divergence in these projections predict increases in temperature and Temperature increases dramatically after mid- decreases in precipitation, particularly By 2100, all three scenarios predict century, making projections beyond 20 in wetter regions like El Yunque increases in temperature with increases to 30 years more uncertain. (Khalyani et al. 2016, pp. 274–275). of 7.5–9.0 °C (13.5–16.2 °F), 6.4–7.6 °C These projected changes may have However, divergence in temperature (11.5–13.4 °F), and 4.6–5.4 °C (8.3– direct or at least indirect effects on and precipitation projections increases 9.7 °F) under the A2, A1B, and B1 Lepanthes eltoroensis; however, dramatically after mid-century, scenarios, respectively (Khalyani et al. viability of the species under all depending on the scenario (Khalyani et 2016, p. 275). However, like with scenarios is expected to remain stable al. 2016, p. 275; USFWS 2019, pp. 59– precipitation, projected increases in within the foreseeable future (USFWS 62), making projections beyond 20 to 30 temperature are not substantial until 2019, p. 71). Potential direct effects years uncertain. Given the average after 2040. Projections show only a 0.8 include a reduced number of seedlings lifespan of the species (approximately 5 °C (1.4 °F) increase by mid-century as the number of dry days increase, a years), a period of 20 to 30 years allows under all three scenarios. These reduced number of fruits as minimum for multiple generations and detection scenarios differentiate the most from average temperature increases, and a of any population changes. each other in later time intervals (after reduced number of adults as maximum Additionally, the species has been listed 2040) (Khalyani et al. 2016, pp. 275, temperature increases (Olaya-Arenas et

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al. 2011, p. 2042). Additionally, management plan includes a set of regulatory documents. Rather, they are projected changes in hurricane standards and guidelines to protect the intended to establish goals for long-term frequencies (and associated habitat natural resources within the El Toro conservation of a listed species and changes) may negatively affect the Wilderness, including other co- define criteria that are designed to growth rate of L. eltoroensis populations occurring federally listed species (e.g., indicate when the threats facing a (Tremblay 2008, pp. 89–90) due to Ilex sintenisii and Ternstroemia species have been removed or reduced increases in light penetration from luquillensis) (USFS 2019, pp. 1, 32–35), to such an extent that the species may defoliation. Indirect effects are related to the Service anticipates continued no longer need the protections of the potential changes in moss cover and implementation of conservation and Act. Recovery plans also provide composition due to temperature and management practices to improve the guidance to our Federal, State, and other precipitation changes. Data from related habitat of all species within the area, governmental and nongovernmental species showed that orchid density, including actions to mitigate hurricane partners on methods to minimize threats growth, and establishment were impacts. to listed species. positively associated with moss species There are many paths to Future Viability richness (Crain 2012, pp. 15–16; Garcia- accomplishing recovery of a species, Cancel et al. 2013, p. 6). Therefore, a Resiliency and recovery may be achieved without change in forest temperature and Under all future scenarios, resiliency all criteria being fully met. For example, humidity could affect the establishment is projected to remain moderate through one or more criteria may have been and distribution of moss and, thus, L. at least the next 20 to 30 years. As exceeded while other criteria may not eltoroensis (USFWS 2019, p. 11). mentioned above, there is very little have been accomplished or become Persistence of the species through projected contraction of the wet and obsolete, yet the Service may judge that, repeated past hurricanes and other moist forests within this timeframe. overall, the threats have been storms suggests the species has the Although increasing catastrophic minimized sufficiently, and the species ability to recover and adapt from hurricanes are possible, relocation of is robust enough, to reclassify the disturbances, and relocation of plants can ameliorate some of these species from endangered to threatened individuals from blown-down host trees impacts. or perhaps delist the species. In other further accelerates the recovery of the cases, recovery opportunities may be species post-hurricane. In fact, many Redundancy recognized that were not known at the researchers at El Yunque have Redundancy is expected to remain time the recovery plan was finalized. concluded that hurricanes are the main stable under all scenarios for the next 20 These opportunities may be used organizing force of the forests (USFWS to 30 years, although this prediction is instead of methods identified in the 2019, p. 71). The forests go through a uncertain given the very limited range recovery plan. cycle that averages 60 years, starting of the species and the lack of knowledge Likewise, information on the species with great impact by winds and rain of about the full extent of the species’ that was not known at the time the a hurricane, and then 60 years of range (i.e., no surveys conducted off the recovery plan was finalized may become regrowth (Lugo 2008, p. 371). In those two main trails). However, Lepanthes available. The new information may 60 years of regrowth, complete changes eltoroensis has persisted through change the extent that criteria need to be in the species that dominate the catastrophic events in the past, and we met for recognizing recovery of the landscape can occur. Although the expect it to persist into the foreseeable species. Recovery of species is a hurricane appears destructive, it can be future. dynamic process requiring adaptive constructive because it makes the area management that may, or may not, fully more productive—it rejuvenates the Representation follow the guidance provided in a forest (USFWS 2019, p. 71). Currently, Because the species does not appear recovery plan. El Yunque is at the initial phase of early to have much physiological flexibility, The following discussion provides a succession following Hurricane Maria given that it has a rather restricted brief review of recovery planning and (2017), which produced severe tree distribution, representative units were implementation for Lepanthes mortality and defoliation, including not delineated for this species. The eltoroensis, as well as an analysis of the Lepanthes eltoroensis host trees. current condition of low genetic and recovery criteria and goals as they relate In general, we anticipate the range of environmental diversity, and little to evaluating the status of this orchid. the species may contract somewhat due breadth to rely on if some plants are The Lepanthes eltoroensis Recovery to changes in climatic variables, lost, is expected to continue under all Plan was approved on July 15, 1996. although the loss of wet and moist zones scenarios, at least through the next 20 to The objective of the Recovery Plan is to in the northeastern mountain area that 30 years. Available data suggest that provide direction for reversing the supports Lepanthes eltoroensis is not conditions are present for genetic drift decline of this orchid and for restoring predicted to be substantial by mid- and inbreeding. However, Lepanthes the species to a self-sustaining status, century (USFWS 2019, p. 66). The range eltoroensis has demonstrated the ability thereby permitting eventual removal contraction may be exacerbated by an to adapt to changing environmental from the Federal List of Endangered and increase in the frequency and severity of conditions (i.e., natural disturbances) Threatened Plants (USFWS 1996, p. 8). hurricanes. However, as the species over time. However, the Recovery Plan provides occurs within El Yunque, synergistic only criteria for reclassifying the species negative effects of development and Recovery and Recovery Plan from endangered to threatened deleterious forest management practices Implementation (‘‘downlisting’’). The specific criteria are unlikely threats to the species in the Section 4(f) of the Act directs us to are: (1) Prepare and implement an future. Currently, L. eltoroensis and its develop and implement recovery plans agreement between the Service and the habitat at the El Yunque are protected for the conservation and survival of USFS concerning the protection of L. by Congressional designation of El Toro endangered and threatened species eltoroensis within El Yunque, and (2) Wilderness Area (Forest Plan 2016, p. unless we determine that such a plan establish new populations capable of 32), thus precluding human will not promote the conservation of the self-perpetuation within protected areas disturbance. Because the El Yunque species. Recovery plans are not (USFWS 1996, p. 8). The plan also

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includes the following recovery actions Additionally, since the species was update the distribution and status of L. intended to address threats to the listed in 1991, many more individuals eltoroensis within El Yunque, and species: have been found and observed growth assess natural threats, particularly (1) Prevent further habitat loss and has been stable with no documented climate change, affecting these population decline; decline in the population. populations. However, the best available (2) Continue to gather information on data indicates that the species is Recovery Action 2: Continue To Gather the species’ distribution and abundance; projected to remain viable, and the Information on the Species’ Distribution (3) Conduct research; results of the additional surveys, while and Abundance (4) Establish new populations; and helpful information, is not required. (5) Refine recovery criteria. This action has been met. Since the The following discussion provides species was listed in 1991, several Recovery Action 4: Establish New specific details for each of these actions surveys for Lepanthes eltoroensis have Populations and the extent to which the recovery been conducted. Although these surveys This action has not been met but is no criteria have been met. have been infrequent, sparse, and done longer necessary. At the time of listing, Recovery Action 1: Prevent Further with varying spatial spread and only 140 plants were thought to exist; Habitat Loss and Population Decline methodology, making the results we now estimate a population size of difficult to compare over time, even 3,000 individuals. The 2015 5-year This action has been met. In the past, partial surveys have found greater status review of Lepanthes eltoroensis the species’ primary threat was numbers of L. eltoroensis. Surveys have states that the action to establish new identified as destruction and indicated stable growth rates. While the populations is not necessary at this time modification of habitat associated with best available estimate of the for the recovery of the species because forest management practices (e.g., metapopulation is 3,000 individuals, additional sub-populations and establishment and maintenance of surveys likely underestimate the individuals have been found since the plantations, selective cutting, trail species’ true abundance as suitable species was listed (USFWS 2015, p. 5). maintenance, and shelter construction; habitat off the two main trails are Additionally, relocation of plants from 56 FR 60933, November 29, 1991). As dangerous and mostly inaccessible, fallen trees onto standing trees described above under ‘‘Forest preventing additional surveys. Surveys following hurricane events was found to Management Practices,’’ the best of habitat outside traditional population be an effective management strategy to available data indicates that forest sites may result in additional improve and maximize survival and management practices are no longer individuals. reproductive success (Benı´tez and negatively affecting Lepanthes Tremblay 2003, pp. 67–69). eltoroensis. Furthermore, the area where Recovery Action 3: Conduct Research the species is found is within a This action has been met; however we Recovery Action 5: Refine Recovery protected area (El Yunque), part of continue to conduct research on the Criteria which is the El Toro Wilderness species. Information has been collected This action has not been met but will designated in 2005, where the land is throughout the years on the distribution no longer be necessary. The Recovery managed to preserve its natural and dispersion patterns of Lepanthes Plan states that as additional conditions and species like L. eltoroensis (Tremblay 1997a, pp. 85–96), information on Lepanthes eltoroensis is eltoroensis (USFS 2016, p. 32). We variance in floral morphology (Tremblay gathered, it will be necessary to better expect this wilderness area will remain 1997b, pp. 38–45), and genetic define, and possibly modify, recovery permanently protected as a nature differentiation (Tremblay and Ackerman criteria. Based on the information reserve and be managed for 2001, pp. 47–62). In 2016, the Service compiled in the SSA (USFWS 2019, conservation. Additionally, because this and the PRDNER provided funding to entire) this orchid is projected to remain area is within a National Forest, the researchers at the University of Puerto viable over time, such that it may no National Forest Management Act of Rico to evaluate the current population longer meet the definition of an 1976 (16 U.S.C. 1600 et seq.), requires status of L. eltoroensis and model its endangered or threatened species (see El Yunque to develop management demographic variation in response to Determination). plans. As noted above, El Yunque plan climatic variability (i.e., temperature specifically includes a set of standards and relative humidity). This study is an Recovery Criterion 1: Prepare and and guidelines to protect the natural effort to evaluate the influence that Implement and Agreement Between the resources within the El Toro climate change will have on the Service and the USFS Concerning the Wilderness. Moreover, Federal agencies persistence of this species in its Protection of Lepanthes eltoroensis are mandated to carry out programs for environment. Results are anticipated to Within El Yunque the conservation of endangered species be available later in 2020 and will be This criterion has been partially met. under section 7 of the Act to ensure that factored into our final determination on Although there is not a specific any action authorized, funded, or this proposed rule. Data gathered during agreement between the Service and the carried out by a Federal agency is not this project will also be used to USFS concerning the protection of likely to jeopardize the continued characterize the microhabitat variation Lepanthes eltoroensis, the intent of this existence of a federally listed species. between areas with and without L. criterion—to provide long-term The USFS continually consults with the eltoroensis and develop a habitat protection for the species—has been Service to avoid and minimize impacts selection model to evaluate the met. Existing populations and the to listed species and their habitat at El relationship between the presence and species’ habitat are protected. As stated Yunque. L. eltoroensis shares habitat absence of plants and landscape-level before, this orchid species occurs within with other federally listed species (e.g., variables such as elevation, forest type, the El Toro Wilderness area where Ilex sintenisii, Ternstroemia aspect, and temperature. Additionally, habitat destruction or modification is no luquillensis, and Elfin-woods warbler); these data will allow for development of longer considered a threat to the species thus, the USFS will continue to consult a monitoring infrastructure to model the or its habitat. The implementation of with the Service on projects that could demographic responses of L. eltoroensis management practices in the forest has affect listed species in this area. to climate variation. This research will improved, no selective cutting is

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conducted, and the USFS coordinates species was listed under the Act and the natural disturbances. Additionally, with the Service to avoid impacts to Recovery Plan was written, additional relocation of plants is a viable listed species as part of their plants have been found; therefore, management strategy that can improve management practices. Because this establishment of new populations is not and maximize survival and species overlaps with other listed necessary at this time for recovery. reproduction success. The greatest species, the USFS will continue to Additionally, the five recovery actions threat to the future of L. eltoroensis is consult on projects that may affect this intended to address threats to the current and ongoing effects of climate area. Furthermore, Commonwealth laws species have all been either met or change factors (Factor E); however, and regulations protect the species’ determined to no longer be necessary for while changes to precipitation and habitat as well as the species from recovery. drought, temperature, and life zones are collection and removal. There is no Determination of Status of Lepanthes expected to occur on Puerto Rico, evidence that L. eltoroensis or its habitat eltoroensis within the foreseeable future, they are is being negatively impacted; therefore, not predicted to be substantial, and the a formal agreement between the Service Section 4 of the Act (16 U.S.C. 1533), viability of the species is expected to and the USFS is not necessary for and its implementing regulations (50 remain stable. We anticipate small protecting this species. CFR part 424), set forth the procedures population dynamics (Factor E) will for determining whether a species meets Recovery Criterion 2: Establish New continue to be a concern, as there is the definition of ‘‘endangered species’’ already evidence of genetic drift, but Populations Capable of Self- or ‘‘threatened species.’’ The Act defines Perpetuation Within Protected Areas L.eltoroensis has demonstrated the an ‘‘endangered species’’ as a species ability to adapt to changing As stated under Recovery Action 4, that is in danger of extinction environmental conditions over time at we have found that the action to throughout all or a significant portion of population levels lower than they are establish new populations is not its range, and a ‘‘threatened species’’ as currently or projected to be in the necessary at this time for the recovery a species that is likely to become an future. of the species because additional sub- endangered species within the populations and individuals have been foreseeable future throughout all or a The species was originally listed as an found since the species was listed significant portion of its range. The Act endangered species due to its rarity, (USFWS 2015, p. 5). Additionally, requires that we determine whether a restricted distribution, specialized relocation of plants is an effective species meets the definition of habitat, and vulnerability to habitat management strategy to improve and ‘‘endangered species’’ or ‘‘threatened destruction or modification, as well as maximize survival and reproductive species’’ because of any of the following because of collection for commercial/ success, as has been demonstrated after factors: (A) The present or threatened recreational uses. We find that these hurricane events (Benı´tez and Tremblay destruction, modification, or threats are no longer affecting the status 2003, pp. 67–69). curtailment of its habitat or range; (B) of the species as they have been overutilization for commercial, minimized or eliminated. Partial Summary recreational, scientific, or educational surveys over the past 18 years, The Recovery Plan for Lepanthes purposes; (C) disease or predation; (D) including surveys following two strong eltoroensis provided direction for the inadequacy of existing regulatory hurricanes in 2018, indicate there are reversing the decline of this species, mechanisms; or (E) other natural or more individuals than known at the thereby informing when the species may manmade factors affecting its continued time of listing, and the population be delisted. The Recovery Plan outlined existence. appears to be relatively stable. Surveys two criteria for reclassifying the species are limited to detections right on the from endangered to threatened: (1) Status Throughout All of Its Range trails, or a very short distance from the Prepare and implement an agreement After evaluating threats to the species trails. Habitat that has not or cannot be between the Service and the USFS and assessing the cumulative effect of surveyed may hold additional concerning the protection of L. the threats under the section 4(a)(1) subpopulations; therefore, surveys eltoroensis within El Yunque, and (2) factors, we note that more individuals likely underestimate the true abundance establish new populations capable of are known to occur than at the time of of this species. The habitat at El self-perpetuation within protected areas. listing. Additionally, the best Yunque, where the species occurs, is a Both of these criteria have been partially metapopulation estimate of 3,000 designated wilderness area, and met or are no longer considered individuals is likely an underestimate, managed for its natural conditions; necessary. This species is protected by as not all potential habitat has been therefore, habitat modification or Commonwealth law and regulations, surveyed. Despite the effects of a small destruction is not a current threat. In and will continue to be should the population size, continued limited addition, collection is prohibited under species no longer require Federal distribution, and evidence of low gene USFS regulations, and there is no protection, and occurs within a flow (Factor E), the species has persisted indication this is a current threat to the protected wilderness area that will and adapted to changing environmental species. Persistence of the species remain protected and managed using conditions. Forest management through repeated past strong hurricanes techniques that are beneficial for this practices (Factor A) and collection indicates the species has the ability to and other co-occurring federally listed (Factor B) are not currently a threat to recover and adapt from disturbances. species. There is no evidence that L. this species, nor are they anticipated to Furthermore, relocation of individuals eltoroensis or its habitat is being negatively affect Lepanthes eltoroensis from felled trees further accelerates the negatively impacted by forest in the future. Although hurricanes recovery of the species post-hurricane. management activities or will be in the (Factor E) have the potential to While a narrow endemic, the species future. Additionally, the designation of negatively impact growth rates and has continued to exist across its wilderness where the species occurs has survival of L. eltoroensis, observed historical range with all life stages eliminated the need for a formal stable subpopulations, even after recent represented and in good health. While agreement between the Service and the severe hurricanes, indicate this species projections predict increasing USFS to protect this species. Since the has the ability to recover from these temperatures and decreasing

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precipitation over time into the future, (2) the species may be, in that portion, Diversity v. Everson, 2020 WL 437289 projected impacts to the species’ habitat either in danger of extinction or likely (D.D.C. Jan. 28, 2020). (e.g., life zone changes) are not expected to become so in the foreseeable future. Determination of Status to be significant within the foreseeable For a particular portion, if we cannot future (USFWS 2019, p. 69). Recent, yet answer both questions in the Our review of the best available unpublished downscaled climate affirmative, then that portion does not scientific and commercial data indicates modelling (Bowden 2018, pers. comm.) warrant further consideration and the that Lepanthes eltoroensis does not meet indicates that higher elevation areas, species does not warrant listing because the definition of an endangered species like those supporting L. eltoroensis, may of its status in that portion of its range. or a threatened species in accordance be buffered from the more generally Conversely, we emphasize that with sections 3(6) and 3(20) of the Act. predicted level of precipitation changes. answering both of these questions in the Therefore, we propose to remove this This species has also demonstrated the affirmative is not a determination that species from the Federal List of ability to adapt to changes in its the species is in danger of extinction or Endangered and Threatened Plants. environment. Since the species was likely to become so in the foreseeable Effects of This Proposed Rule listed, warming temperatures have been future throughout a significant portion This proposal, if made final, would documented and precipitation levels of its range—rather, it is a step in revise 50 CFR 17.12(h) to remove have decreased, yet the species has determining whether a more detailed Lepanthes eltoroensis from the Federal persisted. Additionally, following strong analysis of the issue is required. hurricanes that affected the species’ List of Endangered and Threatened If we answer these questions in the Plants. Therefore, revision of the habitat, abundance has remained stable, affirmative, we then conduct a more with all age classes represented and in species’ recovery plan is not necessary. thorough analysis to determine whether The prohibitions and conservation good health. While suitable habitat the portion does indeed meet both of the conditions for the species may contract measures provided by the Act, ‘‘significant portion of its range’’ prongs: particularly through sections 7 and 9, some over the foreseeable future, the (1) The portion is significant; and (2) the species is likely to continue to maintain would no longer apply to this species. species is, in that portion, either in Federal agencies would no longer be close to current levels of resiliency, danger of extinction or likely to become redundancy, and representation. We required to consult with the Service so in the foreseeable future. under section 7 of the Act in the event conclude that there are no existing or Confirmation that a portion does indeed potential threats that, either alone or in that activities they authorize, fund, or meet one of these prongs does not create carry out may affect L. eltoroensis. There combination with others (i.e., forest a presumption, prejudgment, or other management practices, climate change, is no critical habitat designated for this determination as to whether the species species. and hurricane damage), are likely to is an endangered species or threatened cause the species’ viability to decline. species. Rather, we must then undertake Post-Delisting Monitoring Thus, after assessing the best available a more detailed analysis of the other data, we conclude that L. eltoroensis is Section 4(g)(1) of the Act requires us prong to make that determination. Only to monitor for not less than 5 years the not in danger of extinction throughout if the portion does indeed meet both its range (i.e., meets the definition of an status of all species that are delisted due prongs would the species warrant listing endangered species) or likely to become to recovery. Post-delisting monitoring because of its status in a significant so within the foreseeable future (i.e., refers to activities undertaken to verify portion of its range. meets the definition of a threatened that a species delisted due to recovery species). We evaluated the range of the remains secure from the risk of Lepanthes eltoroensis to determine if extinction after the protections of the Status Throughout a Significant Portion any area may be a significant portion of Act no longer apply. The primary goal of Its Range the range. The species is a narrow of PDM is to monitor the species to Under the Act and our implementing endemic that functions as a single, ensure that its status does not regulations, a species may warrant contiguous population (with a deteriorate, and if a decline is detected, listing if it is in danger of extinction or metapopulation structure) and occurs to take measures to halt the decline so likely to become so within the within a very small area (El Yunque, that proposing it as an endangered or foreseeable future throughout all or a Puerto Rico). Every threat to the species threatened species is not again needed. significant portion of its range. in any portion of its range is a threat to If at any time during the monitoring Having determined that Lepanthes the species throughout all of its range, period data indicate that protective eltoroensis is not in danger of extinction and so the species has the same status status under the Act should be or likely to become so within the under the Act throughout its narrow reinstated, we can initiate listing foreseeable future throughout all of its range. Therefore, we conclude, based on procedures, including, if appropriate, range, we now consider whether it may this screening analysis, that the species emergency listing. At the conclusion of be in danger of extinction or likely to is not in danger of extinction or likely the monitoring period, we will review become so within the foreseeable future to become so in the foreseeable future in all available information to determine if in a significant portion of its range. The any significant portion of its range. Our relisting, the continuation of range of a species can theoretically be conclusion—that we do not undertake monitoring, or the termination of divided into portions in an infinite additional analysis if we determine that monitoring is appropriate. number of ways, so we first screen the the species has the same status under Section 4(g) of the Act explicitly potential portions of the species’ range the Act throughout its narrow range—is requires that we cooperate with the to determine if there are any portions consistent with the courts’ holdings in States in development and that warrant further consideration. To Desert Survivors v. Department of the implementation of PDM programs. do the ‘‘screening’’ analysis, we ask Interior, No. 16–cv–01165–JCS, 2018 However, we remain ultimately whether there are portions of the WL 4053447 (N.D. Cal. Aug. 24, 2018); responsible for compliance with section species’ range for which there is Center for Biological Diversity v. Jewell, 4(g) and, therefore, must remain actively substantial information indicating that: 248 F. Supp. 3d, 946, 959 (D. Ariz. engaged in all phases of PDM. We also (1) The portion may be significant; and 2017); and Center for Biological seek active participation of other

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entities that are expected to assume Presidential Memorandum of June 1, have determined that there are no tribal responsibilities for the species’ 1998, to write all rules in plain interests affected by this proposal. conservation after delisting. The Service language. This means that each rule we is currently coordinating with PRDNER publish must: References Cited and USFS on the completion of the (1) Be logically organized; A complete list of references cited in (2) Use the active voice to address PDM. this rulemaking is available on the We have prepared a draft PDM plan readers directly; internet at http://www.regulations.gov for the orchid, Lepanthes eltoroensis. (3) Use clear language rather than The plan is designed to detect jargon; under Docket No. FWS–R4–ES–2019– substantial declines in the species, with (4) Be divided into short sections and 0073 and upon request from the reasonable certainty and precision, or an sentences; and Caribbean Ecological Services Field increase in threats. The plan: (5) Use lists and tables wherever Office (see FOR FURTHER INFORMATION (1) Summarizes the species’ status at possible. CONTACT). If you feel that we have not met these the time of proposed delisting; Authors (2) Defines thresholds or triggers for requirements, send us comments by one potential monitoring outcomes and of the methods listed in ADDRESSES. To The primary authors of this proposed conclusions; better help us revise the rule, your rule are the staff members of the (3) Lays out frequency and duration of comments should be as specific as Service’s Species Assessment Team and monitoring; possible. For example, you should tell the Caribbean Ecological Services Field (4) Articulates monitoring methods, us the numbers of the sections or Office. including sampling considerations; paragraphs that are unclearly written, (5) Outlines data compilation and which sections or sentences are too List of Subjects in 50 CFR Part 17 reporting procedures and long, the sections where you feel lists or responsibilities; and tables would be useful, etc. Endangered and threatened species, (6) Proposes a PDM implementation Exports, Imports, Reporting and schedule, funding, and responsible National Environmental Policy Act (42 recordkeeping requirements, parties. U.S.C. 4321 et seq.) Transportation. Concurrent with this proposed We determined that we do not need Proposed Regulation Promulgation delisting rule, we announce the to prepare an environmental assessment availability of the draft PDM plan for or an environmental impact statements, Accordingly, we propose to amend public review at http:// as defined under the authority of the part 17, subchapter B of chapter I, title www.regulations.gov under Docket No. National Environmental Policy Act of 50 of the Code of Federal Regulations, FWS–R4–ES–2019–0073. The plan can 1969 (42 U.S.C. 4321 et seq.), in as set forth below: also be viewed in its entirety at https:// connection with regulations adopted www.fws.gov/southeast/caribbean/. pursuant to section 4(a) of the PART 17—ENDANGERED AND Copies can also be obtained from the Endangered Species Act. We published THREATENED WILDLIFE AND PLANTS U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, a notice outlining our reasons for this Caribbean Ecological Services Field determination in the Federal Register ■ 1. The authority citation for part 17 Office (see FOR FURTHER INFORMATION October 25, 1983 (48 FR 49244). CONTACT). We seek information, data, continues to read as follows: and comments from the public Government-to-Government Authority: 16 U.S.C. 1361–1407; 1531– regarding Lepanthes eltoroensis and the Relationship With Tribes 1544; and 4201–4245, unless otherwise PDM plan. We are also seeking peer In accordance with the President’s noted. review of the draft PDM plan during this memorandum of April 29, 1994 § 17.12 [Amended] proposed rule’s comment period. We (Government-to-Government Relations anticipate finalizing this plan, with Native American Tribal ■ 2. Amend § 17.12(h) by removing the considering all public and peer review Governments; 59 FR 22951), Executive entry for ‘‘Lepanthes eltoroensis’’ under comments, prior to making a final Order 13175 (Consultation and FLOWERING PLANTS from the List of determination on the proposed delisting Coordination With Indian Tribal Endangered and Threatened Plants. rule. Governments), and the Department of Dated: January 23, 2020. Required Determinations the Interior’s manual at 512 DM 2, we readily acknowledge our responsibility Aurelia Skipwith, Clarity of the Rule to communicate meaningfully with Director, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. We are required by Executive Orders recognized Federal Tribes on a [FR Doc. 2020–04824 Filed 3–9–20; 8:45 am] 12866 and 12988 and by the government-to-government basis. We BILLING CODE 4333–15–P

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