fst journal The Journal of the Foundation for Science and Technology

Volume 21, Number 4, July 2014

Lord Stern: Working together for the good of humanity Marine technologies Professor Ralph Rayner: Connectivity – the glue that drives innovation Professor Ed Hill: The contribution of marine science and technology to the economy Professor Rick Spinrad: A time of challenge and opportunity Bovine tuberculosis Adam Quinney: A farmer’s perspective Dr Miles Parker: The current status of the fight against bovine TB Professor Rosie Woodroffe: Culling versus vaccination Professor Chris Gaskell: Clarifying points of agreement and disagreement Agricultural technologies George Freeman: A strategy for the future of UK agriculture Dr Peter Bonfield: Taking a consistent approach to Government procurement Lord Haskins: Ensuring food for the future Dr Stephen Axford: The potential benefits UK-China partnerships Professor Tony Cheetham: Identifying the opportunities for collaboration Michael Kwok: A view from China Professor Robin Grimes: The risks and opportunities of partnership Antimicrobial resistance Dame Sally Davies: Confronting the threat of drug-resistant disease Dr Jeremy Farrar: New approaches for an urgent problem Professor Patrick Vallance: Taking practical steps to promote drug development Climate change Sir Mark Walport, David Davies, Professor Jim Skea, Peter Lilley: To act now or to wait?

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PRESIDENT Fax The Rt Hon the Lord Jenkin of Roding FRSE 020 7321 2221 COUNCIL Email CHAIRMAN [email protected] The Earl of Selborne GBE FRS President, The Royal Society Sir Paul Nurse PRS FMedSci HonFREng President, The Royal Academy of Engineering Sir John Parker GBE FREng Editor President, British Academy The Lord Stern of Brentford PBA FRS Sir John Enderby CBE FRS President, The Royal Society of Edinburgh Sir John Arbuthnott PRSE FMedSci Production Editor President, Academy of Medical Sciences Sir John Tooke PMedSci FRCP Simon Napper President, The Learned Society of Wales, Sir Emyr Jones Parry GCMG FInstP PLSW President, Science Council Sir Tom Blundell FRS FMedSci Sub Editor Chairman, EngineeringUK Dr Paul Golby CBE FREng Judy McBride Chairman, Arts and Humanities Research Council Sir Drummond Bone FRSE Chairman, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council Sir Tom Blundell FRS FMedSci Design and layout Chairman, Economic and Social Research Council Dr Alan Gillespie CBE James McQuat Chairman, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Dr Paul Golby CBE FREng Chairman, Medical Research Council Donald Brydon CBE Chairman, Natural Environment Research Council Sir Anthony Cleaver HonFREng www.foundation.org.uk Chairman, Science and Technology Facilities Council Sir Michael Sterling FREng Chairman, Steering Board, UK Space Agency Robert Douglas CBE DL Chairman, Technology Strategy Board Phil Smith Professor Polina Bayvel FREng Sir John Beddington CMG FRS FRSE HonFREng Sir Leszek Borysiewicz FRS FRCP FMedSci The Lord Broers FRS FREng Sir Geoffrey Chipperfield KCB Dr Jeremy Farrar OBE FMedSci George Freeman MP* The Lord Haskel Dr Julian Huppert MP* Dr Geraldine Kenney-Wallace FRSC Sir David King KB FRS ScD The Lord Krebs Kt FRS FMedSci The Rt Hon the Lord Lloyd of Berwick DL Dr Mike Lynch OBE FRS FREng Sir Rob Margetts CBE FREng The Lord May of Oxford OM AC Kt FRS FMedSci The Rt Hon Sir Brian Neill* The Baroness O’Neill of Bengarve CBE FBA FRS FMedSci The Lord Oxburgh KBE FRS The Lord Rees of Ludlow OM Kt FRS HonFREng Dr Peter Ringrose The Baroness Sharp of Guildford* Dr Graham Spittle CBE The Lord Trees The Baroness Wilcox* Sir Peter Williams CBE FREng FRS The Lord Willis of Knaresborough Dr Robert Hawley CBE DSc FRSE FREng (Deputy Chairman) Patrick McHugh (Honorary Secretary) Tony Quigley (Honorary Treasurer)

CHIEF EXECUTIVE Professor Dougal Goodman OBE FREng *Associate member

Neither the Foundation nor the Editor is responsible for the opinions of contributors to FST journal. © 2014 The Foundation for Science and Technology. ISSN 1475-1704 fst journal Volume 21, Number 4, July 2014 contents

THE COUNCIL OF THE FOUNDATION fst inside front cover journal UPDATE The Journal of the Foundation for Science and Technology

Volume 21, Number 4, July 2014 New ministerial appointments; Tackling antimicrobial resistance; Buildings

Lord Stern: Working together for the good of humanity and infrastructure ‘ill-prepared for changing climate’; Investment ‘good for Marine technologies Professor Ralph Rayner: Connectivity – the glue that drives innovation Professor Ed Hill: The contribution of marine science and technology to the economy the economy; Transforming the education system...... 2 Professor Rick Spinrad: A time of challenge and opportunity Bovine tuberculosis Adam Quinney: A farmer’s perspective Dr Miles Parker: The current status of the fight against bovine TB GUEST EDITORIAL Professor Rosie Woodroffe: Culling versus vaccination Professor Chris Gaskell: Clarifying points of agreement and disagreement Agricultural technologies Working together for the good of humanity George Freeman: A strategy for the future of UK agriculture Dr Peter Bonfield: Taking a consistent approach to Government procurement Lord Haskins: Ensuring food for the future Lord Stern...... 3 Dr Stephen Axford: The potential benefits UK-China partnerships Professor Tony Cheetham: Identifying the opportunities for collaboration Michael Kwok: A view from China MARINE TECHNOLOGIES Professor Robin Grimes: The risks and opportunities of partnership Antimicrobial resistance Dame Sally Davies: Confronting the threat of drug-resistant disease Connectivity - the glue that drives innovation Dr Jeremy Farrar: New approaches for an urgent problem Professor Patrick Vallance: Taking practical steps to promote drug development Climate change Professor Ralph Rayner ...... 5 Sir Mark Walport, David Davies, Professor Jim Skea, Peter Lilley: To act now or to wait?

T H E F O U N D A T I O N The contribution of marine science and technology to the economy F O R S C I E N C E A N D fs t TE C H N O L O G Y Professor Ed Hill...... 6 A time of challenge and opportunity www.foundation.org.uk Professor Rick Spinrad ...... 8 carries reports on all BOVINE TUBERCULOSIS A farmer’s perspective Foundation meetings . Adam Quinney...... 10 The current status of the fight against bovine TB Dr Miles Parker...... 11 Culling versus vaccination Professor Rosie Woodroffe ...... 12 Clarifying points of agreement and disagreement Professor Chris Gaskell...... 13 AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGIES A strategy for the future of UK agriculture George Freeman MP...... 15 Taking a consistent approach to Government procurement Dr Peter Bonfield ...... 16 Ensuring food for the future Lord Haskins...... 18 The potential benefits Dr Stephen Axford ...... 19 UK-CHINA PARTNERSHIPS Identifying the opportunities for collaboration Professor Tony Cheetham...... 20 A view from China Michael Kwok...... 22 The risks and opportunities of partnership Professor Robin Grimes ...... 23 ANTIMICROBIAL RESISTANCE Confronting the threat of drug-resistant disease Dame Sally Davies...... 25 New approaches to an urgent problem Dr Jeremy Farrar...... 26 Taking practical steps to promote drug development Professor Patrick Vallance ...... 28 CLIMATE CHANGE To act now or to wait Sir Mark Walport, David Davies MP, Professor Jim Skea, Peter Lilley MP...... 30 EVENTS...... 30 FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL.21 (4) update

New ministerial Tackling antimicrobial resistance appointments The Prime Minister has commissioned a mechanisms for implementation; Greg Clark has been appointed the Minister wide reaching independent review, led by • increasing international cooperation for Universities and Science at the recent the internationally renowned economist and support for action by the inter- cabinet reshuffle. He takes over from David Jim O’Neill and co-funded and hosted by national community, including much Willetts who has left the Government. the world’s second largest medical research closer working with low and middle Mr Clark has been Conservative MP for foundation, the Wellcome Trust, to income countries on this issue. Tunbridge Wells since 2005. He retains his explore the economic issues surrounding former responsibilities in the Cabinet Office antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Mr O’Neill will work independently of as Minister for Cities. He has a doctorate The review will set out a plan for Government, and will have full freedom in economics from the London School of encouraging and accelerating the discovery to approach the issues and the evidence as Economics. and development of new generations of he sees fit. He will work with international Speaking to businessmen at the antibiotics, and will examine: experts covering all aspects of the AMR Farnborough Air Show shortly after his • the development, use and regulatory en- pipeline and associated economic issues to appointment, Mr Clark said there would vironment of antimicrobials, especially identify a range of proposals that can form be “long term continuity and confidence in antibiotics, and explore how to make the basis of a new, strengthened global policy” and that his brief was to continue investment in new antibiotics more effort. the “excellent work” of his predecessor. attractive to pharmaceutical companies In a separate development, antibiotics George Freeman, MP for Mid- and other funding bodies; has also been chosen as the theme of Norfolk and an Associate Member of the • the balance between effective and the £10 million Longitude Prize. The Council of the Foundation for Science sustainable incentives for investment, challenge will be to create a cost-effective, and Technology, has been appointed Life and the need to conserve antimicrobial accurate, rapid and easy-to-use test for Sciences Minister. The role is a joint one drugs so they remain effective for as bacterial infections that will allow health between the Department of Health and the long as possible; professionals worldwide to administer the Department for Business, Innovation and • how governments and other funders right antibiotics at the right time. Skills. Mr Freeman was Government Life can stimulate investment in new www.longitudeprize.org Science Adviser from 2011-13 and helped antimicrobials and timeframes and • See page 25 of this issue. coordinate the Prime Minister’s Life Science Strategy in 2011. Buildings and infrastructure ‘ill-prepared for Transforming the changing climate’ education system The resilience of transport networks, impact on people’s health and well-being. homes, hospitals and water supplies in The Committee found that new homes All students should study science and England need to be enhanced to counter are being designed for yesterday’s climate, mathematics until age 18 as part of a new the more frequent and severe flooding and and not with the health impacts of higher baccalaureate according a report, Vision heatwaves that can be expected in future. temperatures in mind. One-fifth of homes for science and mathematics education, This is the key finding of a new report could already be overheating, even in a published by the Royal Society. by the Government’s official adviser on cool summer. Forthcoming research from The Government should create new preparing for climate change. Cambridge University will also conclude baccalaureate-style frameworks that place The Adaptation Sub-Committee of that 90 per cent of hospital wards are of a emphasis on vocational and academic the Committee on Climate Change is type prone to overheating, even in today’s learning across a broad range of subjects calling for a new building standard to climate, said the CCC. to 18, the study says. It sets out a be introduced to prevent an increase in The Committee is recommending that roadmap for radically transforming our the number of premature deaths that cost-effective solutions, such as improved education systems, with particular focus could result from homes and buildings ventilation, tinted windows, and external on mathematics and science, over the next overheating. Premature deaths from insulation, should begin to be installed in 20 years. overheating could triple to 7,000 per year new and existing homes, hospitals and care The report, which has been written by a by the 2050s, says the Committee, as homes to limit the health impacts of higher committee including scientists, education average temperatures rise and combined temperatures. experts, teachers and a former Secretary of with an ageing and more vulnerable www.theccc.org.uk/publication/manag- State for Education, also calls for: population. Extreme temperatures during ing-climate-risks-to-well-being-and-the- • the status of teaching to be raised and severe heatwaves could have an even greater economy-asc-progress-report-2014 for increased support for subject-specif- ic professional development; Investment ‘good for the economy’ • new post-16 courses and qualifications in mathematics, science, engineering A new independent report for the economic activity: total factor productivity and technology to engage students Campaign for Science and Engineering growth in industries; ability of universities who are studying arts and humanities (CaSE) shows that investing public money to attract external income; and interaction subjects; in science and engineering is good for the between individual researchers and the • new, independent, expert bodies in economy. The Economic Significance of the wider economy. England and Wales to set curriculum UK Science Base examines the economic The report shows that, at the level of and assessment, providing stability, impact of public investment in the UK industries, universities and individual increasing innovation and bringing to science base. researchers, public investment in science an end the turmoil that teachers cur- The study looks in detail at the and engineering leads to economic growth. rently suffer from as a result of constant relationship between public funding of http://sciencecampaign.org.uk/ changes. science and engineering and three levels of UKScienceBase.pdf

2 FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) guest editorial

Science and technology are transforming our world. But what is the role of the Arts and social sciences? And how can these different disciplines interact and support each other? Working together for the good of humanity Nick Stern

cience, engineering and medicine understand and create the kind of world are vital drivers of human progress we want. This involves participation, and we must celebrate and nurture contribution and prosperity. But these them. The British Academy stands subjects are also about challenge and Sshoulder-to-shoulder with our fellow questioning: sometimes being awkward, national academies – the Royal Society, always demanding rigour and honesty, the Royal Academy of Engineering and often forcing ethical issues and choices the Academy of Medical Sciences – in into the open. delivering a shared narrative on the The UK is at a crossroads on many key importance of all parts of this country’s issues – constitutionally, economically, research and science base. Last autumn environmentally – and on the role of the academies’ joint document, Fuelling the state. There are core issues to be Professor Nicholas Stern Prosperity1, made a powerful case to the tackled and crucial decisions to be made (Lord Stern of Brentford) Government for continued investment in across all these dimensions, including is President of the British all areas of academic research. It is only tough decisions for public spending. Academy and one of the by ensuring that science, engineering, Evidence-based and thought-through UK’s leading economists, medicine, humanities and social science responses are required and this, in turn, specialising in the economics researchers continue to work together, requires expertise from humanities and of public policy and in and by recognising the vital contribution social science. These are the subjects that each of these subjects make to our society, can help us understand the choices that development economics. As that we will be able to face the challenges confront us as a society and as human head of the Government that lie ahead. individuals, and how best to respond. Economic Service, he led Science, engineering and medicine are Many of our responses will require new the ground-breaking Stern vital drivers of human progress and we must ways of doing things; innovations in how Review on the economics of celebrate and nurture them. Without the we work, make choices and communicate. climate change, published humanities and social sciences, however, The younger generation, in particular, in 2006, which has had we can never find effective responses appears to be much less politically engaged great influence around the to the issues that confront us. The than many of its predecessors. It is our world. He has been Chief knowledge and expertise they provide are responsibility to help create an intellectual Economist of the EBRD founded in analysis and insights of what environment where they feel moved to constitutes social and cultural well-being contribute their ideas, commitments and and of the World Bank, and how these are shaped; the drivers of inspirations. Second Permanent Secretary a modern knowledge and service-based and Head of Government economy, the basic elements of the UK’s Overarching Economic Service in the UK, contribution, place and reputation in the For me, the British Academy has two and has served as adviser world. overarching goals: first, fostering to governments, businesses From history to psychology, economics excellence, by providing the resources, and NGOs in many countries. to law, literature to philosophy and time and space to generate new research, Since 2007 Lord Stern has languages to archaeology, the humanities with a special emphasis on supporting been the IG Patel Professor of and social sciences help us understand early career scholars; and second, putting Economics and Government, what it means to be human, how to make our subjects to work – showing what they sense of our lives and understand the can do. These twin goals are mutually and Chair of the Grantham choices we make and, above all, how we supportive. We can demonstrate that we Research Institute on Climate interact with one another in communities are an outstanding investment – not just Change and the Environment and across nations. public but also philanthropic – in what at the London School of The humanities and social sciences really matters, and in the future of the UK Economics and Political infuse our economy and our public and and the world more generally. Science. He was elected a cultural life in a myriad of ways. They One of the greatest questions we face as Fellow of the Royal Society play a vital role in bringing new ideas a society – and as part of an increasingly earlier this year. to the fore and pushing politics and interdependent world – is to decide what public debate forward, helping both to we mean by prosperity and how it can be

FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) 3 guest editorial fostered. Earlier this year the Academy disciplines are taught and researched by make an important contribution to offered an example of that question more than 60,000 academic staff across discussion of these challenges. They by launching our multimedia project the country and studied each year by can help provide a new kind of national Prospering Wisely2, using a booklet, videos around one million UK undergraduates, conversation. Further series of Debates and a specially created website. We 60 per cent of all postgraduates and some have now been planned and will focus set out to demonstrate that a rounded 250,000 international students. That on immigration (this coming autumn in understanding of ‘prosperity’, and indeed structure not only delivers excellence at Birmingham, Liverpool and London) and prosperity itself, is deeply dependent on its pinnacle; it also delivers vast wealth on Well-being and Public Policy (in early the contributions of the humanities and into the UK economy and, equally 2015 in Manchester, Cardiff and London). social sciences. importantly, contributes to all those non- Like Prospering Wisely, the Debates Prospering Wisely included video financial aspects that make for prosperity. are a way of fostering an intellectual interviews with a range of Academy The more challenging the political and atmosphere in which the contributions Fellows – a deliberate and I think economic climate becomes, the more of our disciplines to international and powerful way of going beyond assertion, important that these economic basics be national life are recognised. At the same which brought to life some of the practical understood. time the insights they provide stand ways in which we can see knowledge and The British Academy Debates, alongside and are integrated with those of insights which grow from our disciplines launched earlier this year, have been science, engineering and medicine. feeding into our national life. well received. These large-scale public The kind of economy the UK now As I said in my introduction to discussions around the country seek to has, and shares with more and more of Prospering Wisely, the humanities and demonstrate the humanities and social the developed world, depends on the social sciences “encompass all of the sciences ‘at work’ – using a grouped series creativity, knowledge and skills that come elements that make for a good life and a of events to examine and illuminate some from social science and the humanities, healthy society”. Those who work in the of today’s most difficult questions and just as it needs capital resources and humanities and social sciences know that toughest human and policy challenges. equipment. These skills promote growth our disciplines are valuable in themselves, In the first series of debates, leading that can renew and adapt – by driving that learning and scholarship are intrinsic academics and other public figures put their innovation, by challenging, questioning goods. But we also understand the research to work in the discussion of some and by offering up new ideas. More contribution they make as vital drivers of the key challenges and opportunities than three-quarters of the UK economy is of human progress. They provide the posed by the steadily ageing population, now in services, with a constant need for rigorous scrutiny and insights, the ideas and on the way demolished some popular people with knowledge and skills in critical and the long-term thinking that can – and nostrums and stereotypes. The events analysis, problem solving, negotiation and do – have a profound influence on our attracted substantial audiences in London, communication, teaching and listening, social and cultural well-being, on our Sheffield and Edinburgh, with many more and speaking other languages. The very place and reputation in the world, and on watching the online recordings, and with a skills that training in the humanities and and in the communities we live in. further ‘spin-off’ event at the Hay Festival social sciences provide. A society without thriving social in May, where the Academy has now sciences and humanities risks achieving established an annual presence. Intertwined at best only an arid kind of prosperity, far Finally, let me emphasise that nothing I less rich than our creative human culture Complex challenges am saying about working to ensure that deserves – and at worst confusion, apathy, We need these debates for two reasons. the public value of the humanities and decline and conflict. First, because of the sheer scale, social sciences is better understood should complexity and urgency of the challenges be taken as implying any kind of false A community of scholarship we are facing, as societies, as economies, competitiveness with science, technology, A crucial challenge for the British Academy and as individuals. Second, it is central engineering and medicine. They are in the coming years is to continue to to Academy’s role to demonstrate that intertwined and mutually supportive. ☐ represent and speak for the interests of the the humanities and social sciences 1. https://royalsociety.org/policy/publica- community of scholarship which makes provide not only real intrinsic value in tions/2013/fuelling-prosperity all these contributions possible, and which themselves, but great public value and 2. http://www.britac.ac.uk/prosperingwisely sometimes feels threatened, unloved and utility. Research, scholarship and expertise vulnerable. The Academy’s 900 UK in our disciplines illuminate human This topic formed the theme of Lord Fellows embody and represent the very dilemmas and explain how economies, Stern’s address to the Fellows of the British best of academic life in the humanities cultures and communities function. They Academy at their Annual General Meeting and social sciences. help make the complex intelligible, and on 17 July 2014. He will take part in We focus, rightly, on excellence, as help us understand human values and ‘Tackling the Great Challenges of the 21st we must, but we must never forget that possibilities. Century’ with Sir Paul Nurse at the Royal that excellence rests on the fact that our The British Academy Debates can Society on 28 October.

The purpose of the Foundation for Science and Technology is to provide a neutral platform for debate of policy issues that have a science, engineering or technology element. Details of all Foundation meetings, including speeches and presentations, can be found on the website at: www.foundation.org.uk

4 FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) marine technologies

The UK is a maritime nation with a long history of oceanographic research. How can it maintain that leading edge into the future? The question was debated at a meeting of the Foundation on 10 March 2014. Connectivity – the glue that drives innovation Ralph Rayner cean technology has come a and individuals, connecting many very long way in just over half Professor Ralph different disciplines and sectors. a century, roughly the period Rayner is Sector The concept was put quite succinctly since the Moon landing in Director, Energy by Steve Jobs: “Creativity is just O1969. That was a perfect example of and Environment, connecting things.” ‘Just’ may be a rather the way in which a clear and audacious for the BMT Group, diminutive term for such a complex goal inspired a whole generation to the Chairman process, but that is essentially what the achieve something extraordinary. The of Sonardyne process is about. Apollo Mission certainly inspired my International and a Professorial To be sustainable and to grow, any Research Fellow at the London generation. How iconic that view of business needs a lot of new ideas and, School of Economics. He is also the Earth from the Moon has become. returning to Steve Jobs, the key trick in an adviser to the United States It really has taught us that the Earth is National Oceanic and Atmospheric business is picking the ideas with the best ‘Planet Ocean’. Administration (NOAA) and serves chance of success and discarding the rest. Another source of inspiration for as a Trustee of Plymouth Marine In my experience, companies do not fail me was the career of Auguste Piccard Laboratory. as a result of a lack of good ideas, they in the early days of atmospheric and fail because of an inability to adequately ocean exploration, and, in particular, concentrate on just a few carefully- the descent of the bathyscaphe Trieste idea or solution with a potential market. chosen nuggets which will ensure their to the bottom of the Challenger Deep in This complex process has many potential future sustainability and growth. Jobs 1960. Now, more than 50 years on from points of failure. also recognised the complexity of the the Trieste, Jim Cameron’s dive in the The innovation process is about new innovation process and the fact that Deep Sea Challenger is inspiring another ideas and designs with connectivity you have to create markets as well as generation to dream about ocean science playing a key part in their generation. In just responding to immediate customer and technology. This time the message the 19th century, innovation was often needs. will reach an even bigger audience with a characterised as the activity of the lone Government has an important role National Geographic film about the dive inventor, although it could be argued to play in creating an environment that as well as the publicity surrounding the that even the greatest of these individuals encourages turning knowledge into event itself. were building on the knowledge of many value. Historically, interventions in the Innovation has been an important others. The 20th century was a century of process have concentrated on translating part of the journey over the past half corporate innovation with large numbers basic research into applied research century. Innovation does not always of participants working together, often and development, but more recently require sophisticated technology; a within a single organisation, to realise governments have begun to recognise perfect example is the humble shipping new products and services. that the other stages in the innovation container which has had a profound In the 21st century we are seeing the process are equally prone to failure; impact on maritime transport but emergence of ‘open innovation’ involving especially in smaller organisations that required no great technological advances many different, networked organisations lack the critical infrastructure needed to for its realisation. Equally, innovation is not always about a new product, it can just as easily be a business process which DISCUSSION reduces costs or provides a new route The bigger picture to market. For example, iTunes, where Seeing marine science as an area where different disciplines meet, rather than a range of different technologies came one in its own right, may be more productive for the sector in the long term. together, made possible a new route to It may be better to talk of the underlying fields of sensor technology, materials market and completely transformed an science, autonomous systems and so on. There is also value in taking a wider entire industry. rather than narrower perspective, and a distinct cultural value in talking of the Innovation is certainly not a linear process. In reality it is extremely need for global care of the oceans, rather than focussing too much on more complex, involving many feedback local issues. This could be made highly motivational for young people. The loops and connections, dipping in and multi-disciplinary nature of marine science also enables old barriers between out of research and different spheres disciplines to be broken down. of knowledge while connecting a novel

FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) 5 marine technologies effectively take a good idea to market. product and the means of producing it; is especially true of the marine sector Another important role of the means of production and the creation which lacks the investment of many other governments is as the ‘customer’ for new of market awareness; as well as between sectors such as medicine or aerospace. products and services – creating the market awareness on the one hand and Many great innovations in marine initial market pull that takes the product effective sales delivery and support science and technology have been driven or service to critical mass. Ocean science infrastructure on the other. Great ideas by strengthening cross-disciplinary and and technology businesses in the UK have can fail at any of these hurdles – and cross-sectoral communication – many watched with some envy the role that the frequently do. more innovations are possible if we US Government has played in acting as a work at fostering these interfaces and customer for American businesses. It has In conclusion unconventional partnerships. led to the USA dominating key segments A key role of Government is supporting I firmly believe that many of the most of the ocean technology market. high-quality, fundamental research and significant future innovations in ocean Of course the most important doing so in ways that avoid the pitfalls science and technology will come from role for Government lies in creating of trying to fund only the research that making these connections stronger – by motivated and informed talent to feed might generate economic value. The bringing together what is happening in the translation of knowledge into value. history of scientific research is littered fields as diverse as medical sensing, optical It plays a pivotal role in supporting the with examples of research perceived to communications, nanotechnology, low- education of the next generation. have no practical value, but which turned power microelectronics and computing, The so-called ‘Valley of Death’ is out to change the world. to name but a few. usually portrayed as a gulf lying between Another role for Government is to Finally, I want to re-emphasise the basic research and its translation to help businesses (and especially smaller themes of education and outreach applied research and development. This businesses) to successfully navigate the – especially to the next generation. is not the only ‘Valley of Death’ in the various ‘Valleys of Death’. Whether we are in Government, civil translation process and it is probably not Knowledge derived from research society, research or industry, we all have the most important. Equally challenging often drives innovation which is far a part to play in inspiring, educating are the transitions between: a good idea from its origins: think of computers or and mentoring the next generation of and a product or service; a developed advanced materials as examples. This scientists and technologists. ☐

The contribution of marine science and technology to the economy Ed Hill

t school we are taught that in every teaspoon of sea water doing here, but we also have a responsibility to the ocean covers 70 per cent in the Earth’s system? steward this environment. of the Earth’s surface, but we • is the ocean heat conveyor-belt slow- An area of the Earth approximately are not taught how pervasive ing down? equivalent to its entire land surface Athe impact of the ocean is upon us: for lies beyond the national jurisdiction of example, the oxygen in every second Humanity any country (a global commons) and breath a human takes is produced by The relationship between humanity and is, therefore, subject to international marine plankton. And so much about the sea can be summarised under three regulation. The UK has always been the oceans is still unknown: the Census broad categories: we draw resources from a leading player in international ocean of Marine Life Programme from 2000 the sea; the sea presents risks and hazards governance. However, a continuing to 2010 found that in every sample from to us; and our impact on the marine leadership role will have to be supported by below 3km depth in the ocean, one in two environment potentially limits the ability a presence in the deep ocean, underpinned specimens came from a yet undescribed to extract future resources. with practical, sound science. species. There are business opportunities Looking at the overseas territories The oceans also hold the key to some associated with each of these areas, of the UK, about 32 times the area of of the major issues of our age. These are whether through exploration and the land surface is submarine real estate just a few: mapping, exploitation of resources, or and the UK is responsible for two of • where in the ocean is the excess heat in through understanding and managing the the largest marine protected areas in the the Earth’s system going? risks and opportunities that the marine world’s oceans. • can the ocean continue to absorb environment presents. excess carbon dioxide? For the UK, the ocean is of vital national The economy • what are the limits to ecosystem interest. Our own marine area is three The ocean also plays an important role resilience in response to warming, times the size of the land. It encompasses in our economy. A report from Oxford acidification and de-oxygenation of coastal regions, continental shelves, Economics1 has estimated that about £35 the ocean? ocean margins and deep sea provinces. billion of gross value added to the UK • what are the 100 million or so viruses There are potentially enormous resources economy comes from the marine sector;

6 FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) marine technologies everything from oil and gas through to habitat mapping, for long-term marine some of the small industries supporting Professor Ed Hill monitoring, for instrumentation. the service sector, including maritime OBE is Executive The importance of fundamental consultancy. Other figures suggest that Director of discovery science was recognised, but this is an under-estimate and the real the National there was a greater focus on the need for contribution could be anything up to 4 Oceanography strategic, applied science. Looking toward per cent of total UK output, with just Centre. NOC has the future, there was a general feeling that short of one million jobs and about 5,000 research centres in development of the sector, including the companies generating £9.2 billion for the Southampton and science, was planned over too short a Liverpool and operates two ocean- Exchequer. timeframe. Much greater collaboration going research vessels. Professor Hill A recent international comparative and dialogue was needed between the is a member of the Executive Board analysis by the Council of Canadian of the Natural Environment Research public and private sectors, both providers Academies shows the quality of UK marine Council (NERC), the parent body and users of the science. science to be world-class (comparable of NOC, and is also a Professor of Marine science is having an impact on with leaders like Germany and the USA). Oceanography at the University business in several ways. One is through The UK spends about £170 million per of Southampton. A Physical the provision of advice to Government. year on marine science: Defra, Marine Oceanographer by training, his In 2009, as a result of scientific advice Scotland and NERC fund 80 per cent of research experience is in continental on seafloor geology and sediment all public marine science in this country. shelf sea processes, especially density processes, the UK claimed 2,000,000 km2 Marine science in the UK is both driven flows such as frontal jets and of extra submarine real estate, which adds competitive and collaborative. For dense water cascades. considerable natural resources for the example, nearly 90 per cent of the National future. Oceanography Centre’s publications have Marine modelling and observations an international co-author, so the UK is research institution and a number of are dramatically improving skills very strongly connected internationally. other specialist institutions involved in at forecasting climate and seasonal In addition, it has world-class research the translation pathway from science to weather, with an associated impact on infrastructure. In the last decade some application. A number of intermediate economic sectors sensitive to seasonal £120 million of capital investment has information providers draw on this weather (e.g. agriculture, transport, retail, been allocated to two new research ships. science base, working with industry and energy, health). A whole host of other The country does not have the largest with key agencies in the public sector. services, from specialist consultancy to oceanographic fleet in the world but it has There are a number of significant industry, sharing of facilities, formation of vessels capable of going anywhere in the clusters of marine science and industry information hubs and clusters, networks, world and in the deepest waters. Tonne for activity. A particularly noticeable grouping the provision of skills, technology transfer tonne, it can be argued that this is the most exists in the south east of England, around (for example on sensors and platforms), advanced research vessel fleet in the world. the Southampton, Solent, Portsmouth the accessibility of data and data products – What does that mean in practice? Well, axis, drawing on a range of expertise such all these and more are having quantifiable in 2013, British scientists were responsible as the Southampton Marine and Maritime impacts on business. for the discovery of the deepest, hottest, Institute. The inevitable question, though, is: “Is hydrothermal vents in the Cayman The Marine Industries Liaison this enough and can we do more?” Trough. Not only was this a fantastic Group (part of the UK Marine Science discovery in its own right, but the way in Coordination Committee) undertook Emerging areas which it was done was important – it was some work last year to survey the state There are a number of emerging areas an international collaborative programme. of the marine industries. The first which have been identified by the business The area was first mapped by a ship with conclusion was that it was actually a community. There are some immediate a multi-beam echo-sounder, the vents time of confidence for UK businesses – issues, such as the question of scientific were then ‘sniffed out’ by an autonomous they were all anticipating growth and an evidence on oil and gas decommissioning, robot submarine, the research vessel increase in exports. However, there was through problems with ballast water, anti- subsequently went back in and used a a perception of common needs between fouling and the really serious matter of deep sea, remotely-operated vehicle to public sector and private consumers of underwater noise. sample the vent site – so a combination of marine science, for things like seabed and There is a great deal of innovation on technologies made this discovery possible. Something thought impossible to DISCUSSION do 15 years ago, but now a reality, is Valuing academic excellence long-term monitoring of the Atlantic Does the traditional way of valuing academic success really provide a useful Ocean part of the global thermohaline metric for advances in the marine sector? The conventional measure of value circulation; revealing for the first time the truly unexpected variability in the – publish or perish – may still work in a number of academic areas but it is less circulation which controls the climate of suited to the nature of much marine exploration and technological innovation NW Europe. where impact on the economy and on the commercial world are often more important. It could be to the disadvantage of many marine technologists that Science and innovation promotion and tenure still largely rest on the publication record. On the other The UK has a healthy innovation system: hand, the bedrock of academic excellence remains the ability of peers to access about 30 universities have marine science and critique work through reputable journals. strengths, there is a major national

FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) 7 marine technologies marine autonomous monitoring systems supply chain and an oil and gas sector The community – including researchers, and sensors. This could be worth €4 with many transferable skills and access to Government and industry – has to stand billion a year in Europe alone. Further global markets. back and horizon-scan. A commitment ahead, there could be opportunities in While we have all the elements, the to map the remaining 80 per cent of the unconventional hydrocarbons and deep- challenge is to join them all together! UK’s underwater space would be a clear sea mining. Marine businesses have been calling and unambiguous sign of intent. We have, in the UK, all of the key for a strengthening of the research Ironically, one of the biggest barriers elements of a success story: from a ecosystem to ensure that the basic science to progress in this area is psychological: world-class science and engineering base; base remains healthy and at the same time many of our traditional images about through a leading role in many aspects we are effective in translating research the relationship between Britain and the of marine autonomous systems (and the through innovation. sea harp back to our history. They are, micro-sensors required to do this); a high Then there is the issue of following essentially, backward-looking. It is time reputation for leading in international through on large research and capital that Britain reinvented and reinvigorated marine standards; a dynamic small- and investments – in the UK we do not always its relationship with the sea. Yes, it is part medium-sized enterprise (SME) sector provide the resource support to maintain of our history but it is also very much capable of developing and building – these investments. For example, we need part of our future, one filled with exciting and also operating for clients – this kind to nurture the marine innovation clusters opportunities. of technology. In addition, we have a which have begun to develop. 1. Oxford Economics (2013) The economic number of major global players in the There needs to be a strategic, longer- impact of the marine and maritime sector on offshore sector, as well as a UK-based term, rounded view of the opportunities. the UK in 2011/12. A time of challenge and opportunity Rick Spinrad

here is a hackneyed old adage about paternity suits in the woods by that the USA and the UK are two Professor Rick bears?” The NSF progressively added nations separated by a common Spinrad is Chief more and more requirements for ‘broader language. I would say instead Scientist of the impacts’ to its funding criteria. How does National Oceanic that our respective research communities a particular research project result in T and Atmospheric are in fact linked closely together by some societal benefit? How does that research Administration common issues and challenges. Many (NOAA) – having result in commercialisable products? of these actually go beyond the marine recently served as Vice President for This is not a trend that is particular to the sciences, although plenty of examples can Research at Oregon State University USA, it is universal. The requirement for also be found within this discipline. – and President Elect of the Marine an immediate and quantifiable return on The HMS Challenger expedition Technology Society. Prior to this, investment (ROI) is increasing. in 1874 is a good place to start when he served as Assistant Administrator Another general trend is that examining the progress of marine science. for Research at NOAA, where he technological innovation is being The late 19th century was when research directed the agency’s programmes in driven by sectors outside of the science began to grow into the dynamic enterprise oceanography, atmospheric science community. When I worked for the that we see today. The Challenger and climate. He led the White US Navy, we had MilSpec – Military expedition was really about discovery House Committee that developed Specification. An acoustic system for and the quest for knowledge: there was an the nation’s first set of ocean research marine technological applications had to awareness that there were so many things priorities and oversaw the revamping meet the military (in this case the Navy) still to be understood. of NOAA’s research enterprise. specification. Today’s products have to Moving forward in time, the Integrated meet Microsoft or Apple standards or Undersea Surveillance System (IUSS) – any one of thousands of sector-specific SURTASS was the ship-based version – Research in the 1980s, it supported the requirements. So the market is now was used during the Cold War to monitor best research, no matter what the field driving the pace of innovation (and, the Soviet fleet. This programme was (ultimately, of course, the expectation consequently, the pace of scientific set up by US Navy Admirals who went was that it would have some value for research) much more than Government. to Cambridge, Massachusetts, with a the US Navy). The National Science This entails the development of a new great deal of money, in order to find the Foundation also awarded funding purely set of paradigms. There will be a mingling best researchers and ask them to build on scientific merit – the best proposal, the of public and private funding. Right now, a system that would detect submarines. most fascinating science. in the USA that would be illegal. Even if This was built in less than two years: As time went on, though, the NSF public and private objectives are the same, how many operational systems of that came under more and more pressure the money cannot be spent in the same magnitude are developed today (from from Congress to justify its support for way. Compare that with Finland where it inception to operation) in two years? projects. In one presidential election, can be difficult to identify any separation It was a very different kind of research the question was even asked: “Why is between the public sector and the private environment. the US Government studying the DNA sector in many investments made there. When I worked in the Office for Naval of grizzly bears? Are we concerned This is likely to be the pattern of the

8 FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) marine technologies future. and training’. There is a metric in the was subject to adaptive management, There will be more crowd-sourcing USA called the Six-Year Graduation Rate accompanied by a great deal of very and citizen science. Initiatives like – the number of students that attain creative thinking, together with just the Kickstarter allow anyone with an idea an advanced degree within six years amount of testing and evaluation needed to seek support from individuals via the of starting at college. Well, the rate to solve problems. In fact, it was executed web. Kickstarter has been around for is dropping or remaining flat at many in a way that was totally foreign to the about three years and was originally used universities in the States. Formerly, way governments support development. by people starting up a tie-dyed T-shirt students would go to college, get a degree Will academic research become business or the like. But I had a faculty and then be guaranteed a job or a place at increasingly beholden to industry? When member walk into my office about six graduate school. Now, the economy has I arrived at Oregon State University four months ago and say “I want to put my changed and students are saying: “I need years ago, just two per cent of our research proposed research up on Kickstarter. these courses, I need that accreditation, I profile was supported by industry. Today What are our policies for crowd-source need that certificate, but the degree – no, that has risen to 12 per cent. Part of sponsored research?” I don’t need the degree.” that was due to necessity – the Federal Citizen science is another excellent So, how are we training students to Government is reducing its investment, idea. Bob Ballard has done some prepare for commoditised education so universities are turning to private wonderful undersea exploration work and training? Ad hoc networks of industry and foundations. However, and while working with NOAA he said, scientists and technologists are already there is a price to be paid in that it means “I want to make undersea exploration collaborating across international or a move towards ‘research by the pound’, available to the world.” At that point, disciplinary boundaries. It is just as easy commoditising research. The focus shifts he wanted to provide web access, in real for a researcher in Oregon to work with towards return on investment and away time, to his next undersea exploration. a colleague in Southampton as it is to from the advancement of knowledge. Furthermore, he wanted to allow work with someone just down the road. The peer-review system is under researchers from all over the world to The technology today means that it is strain. All researchers are spending more actually drive the remotely-operated not necessary to be based in geographic and more time engaged in the peer- vehicle. Using the same software used clusters for many projects. review process. In the past there was a in public voting on TV shows, he could The ‘research by the pound’ concept willingness to tolerate risk in research; allow people to choose: “Should the sits alongside commoditised education today, though, the community is less remotely-operated vehicle (ROV) go over and training. When the Deep Water risk-tolerant and as a result research is there and look at that black smoker, or go Horizon blow-out occurred four years reviewed with ever greater scrutiny. over there and look at that sea star?” It ago in the Gulf of Mexico, researchers One piece of good news is that the really is an interesting example of citizen were not focussing on a general physical location of the research will science. understanding of ecosystem dynamics be less important. There will be much Open-source technology is a in an oil spill, but rather challenges like more virtual research, with collaboration new concept where the proprietary the best predictive model for the loop via tele-working and tele-conferencing. approach to software and technology current, how oil is entrained in the loop Following Bob Ballard’s exercise, there is dissolving. Groups like Open ROV current and how dispersants act – and was for a period of time in the US Office (which incidentally is a crowd-sourced people were willing to pay whatever it of Ocean Exploration a programme group) makes all of its technology openly took to get this research done. I call that which allowed research to be conducted available. The conventional idea of ‘by the pound’ research because it does from a ship with access to experts from protecting intellectual property is being not necessarily advance understanding, everywhere. An ROV could be put by-passed. Making an impact in the but it helps to solve particular problems. over the side to explore an area of the market is going to involve getting people The US Government currently ocean that nobody had seen before, then to use your technology instead of wasting uses very detailed and prescriptive thousands of researchers from all over time trying to patent and protect the specifications in its funding calls. Yet look the world could be given real-time access individual property. The reason: well, at the story behind the (private sector) and could decide what exactly the ROV because by the time you do that, it will be dive project by James Cameron in the should examine. So place is becoming out of date. Mariana Trench and there is a different much less important. Then there is ‘commoditised education model. The basic development concept Finally, what becomes of exploration, monitoring and observation? It is

DISCUSSION increasingly seen as a ‘nice to have’ rather Fundamental and goal-driven research than as an essential part of research. Yet, this is the era of big data and from Fundamental research provides the essential intellectual foundation for future, big data a lot can be learned about the goal-driven technological innovation. This often draws on the results of past environment. It is, though, increasingly research. The history of science shows, though, how hard it is to predict in difficult to justify sustained investment advance the outcome of basic research or for that matter the often surprising in this area. directions in which it can lead. The amount of spend – and luck – are often the I will conclude with the comment that most important determinants of research coming up with interesting results. So the way we address these new paradigms, the choice should lie in picking the race, not the winner. Unlike fundamental the way we get to the future, is through research, technological innovation can be directed to specific ends, particularly engaged debate, but with the person on the where there is a need to circumvent a barrier to a new product or process. Here street, with the politician, with the business it is possible to pick likely winners and target limited funds more effectively. person, with the public in general, not just the research community. ☐

FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) 9 bovine tuberculosis

The control of tuberculosis infection in cattle in the UK has become highly controversial. How can the science help to identify the most effective options for Government? The matter was discussed at a meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 2 April 2014. A farmer’s perspective Adam Quinney

uberculosis (TB) is a life- largely negative. This seems to be based threatening disease that affects Adam Quinney is a on the erroneous belief that farmers are both animals and humans. farmer who served against vaccination and would like to as Vice-President Bovine TB was first recognised cull all the badgers in the country. This of the National as a significant problem during the has only served to polarise the debate. I T Farmers’ Union Victorian era when TB in humans was of England and think most farmers would support badger linked with drinking milk from infected Wales (NFU) from vaccination in areas where the risk of animals. By the 1930s, around 40 per 2012 to 2014. He bovine TB in badgers is low. However, it cent of cattle were infected and about was a member of the NFU National is unlikely that badger vaccination alone 2,500 people were dying each year as a Livestock Committee and Animal will control TB in higher-risk areas: in result of contracting TB from cows. Health Working Group. He farms some of these areas, more than half (55 A tuberculin skin test for cattle was 180 hectares on the border of per cent) of badgers are infected. In these developed in the 1930s and in 1935 the Worcestershire and Warwickshire. areas, other measures will be needed. Government introduced the voluntary Attested Herd Scheme. Pasteurisation Reducing bovine TB in the future of milk was also introduced in 1935. culling was not cost-effective, with an In the future, a vaccine for cattle might Although these early steps went some average reduction of 16 per cent over provide a solution. We need trials to way toward reducing the effects of bovine the nine years. Farmers have found this find out whether such a vaccine would TB, it remained a serious problem until conclusion difficult to understand as the work in all cattle or only in young cattle, the 1950s, when tuberculin skin testing reduction in the cull area after the badger whether the immunity conferred would of cattle became compulsory. Within 10 cull was just over 40 per cent. be passed on, and whether this is a years bovine TB was largely eradicated, The pilot badger cull trials in Somerset measure that would work everywhere in except in the southwest of England where and Gloucestershire (2013) are due to run the country. Another initiative that needs a couple of stubborn pockets remained. for four years, to see if free shooting to be explored is that of post-movement could be an option. However, they are testing of cattle (as an addition to the Badger populations complex and costly for farmers, who present pre-movement test) to stop the Bovine TB affects a number of animal are being asked to pay for the culling. spread of TB from High Risk Areas to species, notably badgers. It can be This can sometimes amount to as Low Risk Areas, especially in breeding passed from badgers to cattle, as well as much as £2,000 on a farm where there cattle. between cattle. The Badgers Act of 1973 were only 12 badgers. There was also There is no silver bullet for bovine protected badgers and, from then on, a perception among farmers that the TB and the solution might be very their numbers began to grow. This was official conclusions from the previous different in different areas of the country. followed by a rise in the numbers of cattle trials were partly based on public distaste What works in Devon may not work in becoming infected with TB. In the 1980s, for culling, which itself stemmed from Cumbria. We need to explore a range of fewer than 500 cattle per year had been the public’s limited understanding of the solutions. slaughtered because of TB infection. By issue. It is pertinent to note that since the Defra needs to work in genuine the late 1990s, this number had grown RBCT made its report, cattle prices have partnership with farmers. Farmers need to 4,000-5,000 cattle per year, and in doubled. Therefore culling may now be to be confident that their economic and 2012 the number slaughtered reached more cost-effective than indicated in that practical problems are understood and 26,500. The slaughter of these cattle study. that the information they are given is costs farmers and the country a great The public’s view of badger culling was accurate and consistent. deal of money. Although demand for beef is increasing worldwide, UK beef DISCUSSION production has actually fallen. Bovine Defra engagement with farmers and the public TB is now estimated to be costing the UK Farmers’ lack of trust and confidence in Defra is a major obstacle to progress. economy £100 million per year. Farmers are mistrustful of Defra’s motives and see it as being heavily influenced Despite the rise in infection rates, by wildlife enthusiasts. Defra’s actions sometimes seem to polarise issues. many politicians took little interest in the A key task should be to educate the public, starting in schools, about the problem. Attempts to reduce TB infection from badgers by culling were fraught with importance of cattle herds to the UK economy and how TB can be controlled difficulties. The Randomised Badger while still preserving wildlife. No solution will work without partnership between Culling Trial (RBCT), which ran from Government and the agricultural community. 1998 to 2005, concluded that large-scale

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The impact of slaughtering on farmers, reduce his repayments. The farm had had been in his family for so long. their families and their staff needs to be been in his family for generations. He It is crucial that this problem is tackled appreciated. This is a personal tragedy had had a closed herd since 1996, he effectively – cattle numbers have already for many UK farmers. I visited one young had no immediate neighbours and was dropped from 16 million to 10 million, farmer on the Cornwall/Devon border separated from neighbouring farms by and this is a significant loss to the UK’s last year. He was exactly the type of roads and arable fields. export trade. We need an independent person we want to see in farming – in his After TB testing last autumn he body to oversee bovine TB control. It mid-30s, university trained, and keen to lost 90 cows, and on further testing in should have representation from all invest in his farm to improve the welfare February he lost another 60. This man stakeholders and a proper budget with of the animals and increase productivity. was weeping, not only because of the which to investigate various methods of To this end he had borrowed £750,000 financial loss, but because his hopes and control in badgers and cattle, trial new and was working hard to meet the needs desires and plans were disappearing and vaccines and develop an effective long- of the market in order to enable him to he thought he would lose the farm that term plan. ☐ Culling versus vaccination Rosie Woodroffe

B is a huge problem, for both done in the Randomised Badger Culling beef and dairy farmers, and Professor Rosie Trial – reduced badger numbers by about badgers are part of this problem. Woodroffe is a 70 per cent and led to relatively less TB in As evidence has accumulated Senior Research cattle inside the culled areas. Conversely, on the badger’s role, it has become more Fellow at the reactive culling, in which there was T Institute of Zoology, and more apparent that badgers’ ecology localised culling of badgers, reduced Zoological Society and behaviour have important impacts badger density by about 30 per cent but of London. on the spread of infection. Developing She was a member of the team increased TB risk to cattle significantly. an effective solution demands an that designed and oversaw the On the land immediately outside the understanding of these features of badger Randomised Badger Culling Trial, proactive culling area, we saw a small biology. which investigated the spread of reduction in badger density, a change in tuberculosis between badgers and badger behaviour, and more TB in cattle. Culling cattle between 1998 and 2007, In summary, large-scale culling greatly Culling changes the behaviour of badgers. and remains actively involved in reduces badger numbers but increases the If left undisturbed, badgers live in stable research on this issue. proportion of badgers with TB and causes groups within a limited territory. Each the badgers to range more widely. This badger group defends its territory and results in a reduction in bovine TB within the groups can be packed quite tightly number of badgers, which should reduce the culling area but an increase outside the together. The badgers within the groups the transmission of disease, but each culling area. Small-scale culling reduces tend not to wander beyond their defended badger is more infectious, which can badger numbers to a lesser extent and territory and it is rare for them to move increase transmission of disease. After increases TB in both badgers and cattle. between territories. Hence if there is TB culling, a higher proportion of badgers infection in a territory it tends to remain are infected and each badger ranges more Vaccination within that territory without spreading. widely, creating opportunities to come Vaccination can be a powerful tool for This is a very stable pattern of disease. into contact with more herds of cattle. wildlife disease control – for example it The key point is: if the group is left Working out the balance between these has eradicated fox rabies across much of undisturbed, its behaviour works to slow positive and negative impacts of badger western Europe. Although TB is a very the spread of disease. culling is a complex process. different disease, badger vaccination is When culling is carried out, it Widespread proactive culling – as still promising. We have an injectable reduces the number of badgers but it also introduces disturbance that changes DISCUSSION the behaviour of the badgers. They start Is badger control a political or a scientific decision? to range more widely, territories are no longer defended so fiercely, and home A consensus was reached that the eventual decision on what control measure to ranges begin to overlap. This increases implement will be a political one. The role of public opinion and its influence the opportunity for disease transmission on politicians should not be underestimated. People dislike the idea of killing between badgers. It also means that each badgers and the welfare of badgers is a legitimate concern. Furthermore, the badger is likely to come into contact reasons behind the increase in badger population are not understood and more with more cattle herds. The key point research, such as tagging studies to measure badger habits, is needed. Better is: if the group is disturbed by culling, its understanding of badger behaviour may yield other ways of containing bovine TB. behaviour works to hasten the spread of There is also the wider issue of the countryside and the importance of tourism disease. and recreation as sources of income. The sight of dead badgers does not improve In short, badger culling has two the allure of the countryside. opposing consequences: it reduces the

FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) 11 bovine tuberculosis vaccination for badgers that is available structure is a very important factor in untested but merits investigation. now. This vaccine reduces the risk of disease transmission. Because culling The cost of large-scale culling has been individual vaccinated badgers later testing alters the structure of badger populations variously estimated at around £300 to positive for TB, and it also greatly reduces in ways that accelerate TB transmission, £2,500 per square kilometre, plus £4,400 the risk of infection in unvaccinated this approach is risky: it can increase for policing. The cost of vaccination is cubs within the same group. Because disease risks to cattle rather than reducing around £1,330 to £4,000 per square metre. vaccination leaves the badgers’ territorial them. So vaccination is likely to be cheaper than structure intact, this natural brake on By contrast, the effectiveness of culling. disease spread can be augmented by vaccination might be enhanced by the To conclude, badger vaccination is vaccination. fact that it does not disturb the behaviour likely to be cheaper than culling. It is of the badger population, thus restricting unlikely to cause harm and that makes it a Which is best? the number of susceptible hosts that each less risky option than culling. Vaccination Culling and vaccination operate by infected badger is interacting with and has the potential to reduce disease within different mechanisms. In principle, lowering the target needed to be reached badger populations and hence reduce either of them could have the potential in order to have a controlling impact. The transmission to cattle, but this potential to control a wildlife disease. Population effect of badger vaccination on cattle TB is needs to be explored. ☐ The current status of the fight against bovine TB Miles Parker lthough over-reliance on is significant and needs to inform any Dr Miles Parker statistics can be dangerous, measures we take to control bovine TB. OBE is a Senior two key measures can be used Research Associate Our knowledge of the epidemiology to provide a good picture of at Cambridge of badgers and bovine TB has improved Athe current status of bovine TB in the University’s Centre over recent years, and the evidence UK. They are prevalence (the number for Science and suggests that transmission of TB from of animals infected at any one time) Policy. He was badgers to cattle is relatively inefficient. and incidence (the number of new cases formerly Deputy One report indicates that only around that occur over a period). The national Chief Scientific Adviser at the 6-9 per cent of bovine TB is the result monthly tuberculosis statistics between Department for Environment, Food of direct transmission from badgers; 1996 and 2014 show a rise in both and Rural Affairs (Defra). however that 6-9 per cent triggers the prevalence and incidence. much more efficient cattle-to-cattle Prevalence rates spiked in 2001-2002 transmission, which is responsible for 50 when foot and mouth disease halted national herd, it becomes clear that TB per cent of cases. More analysis is needed testing for bovine TB. Rates rose to levels is spreading throughout the herd. The to substantiate these conclusions. not seen before, and have never returned concern is to avoid a situation in which Currently we have five options for the to their pre-2001 levels. However, with the occurrence of TB in cattle exactly management and control of bovine TB: the exception of the southwest, the rate maps the distribution of the national • containment; of incidence (new cases) is slowing down. herd. • intensive testing; It is still too early to say whether overall In addition, there has been a steady • biosecurity; prevalence is decreasing. decline in the size of the national herd, • vaccination; The slowing down in the incidence which has been decreasing by about • wildlife control. rate may be a result of a series of measures 90,000 cattle per year. This decline is that have been taken over recent years, not related to the presence of TB. It Containment including zero tolerance of test avoidance. reflects increasing competitiveness For the purposes of containment England The severity of the measures taken in the industry and changes in market is divided into three epidemiological has increased throughout this period. conditions. If it continues, though (and it areas. The high-risk or endemic areas However, it is important to note that there is a big ‘if’) we shall have lost about half begin in Cornwall in the southwest and is a time lag between the introduction of our national herd by 2035. extend as far as Staffordshire. The ‘edge’ of new measures and their effect on During this decline in cattle numbers, areas immediately to the east of this incidence. This time lag can be as much there have been attempts to regulate extend roughly from Hampshire up to as 10 years. the badger population. Surveys of Nottinghamshire. The remaining areas Despite the reduction in the number badger setts in England and Wales were to the north and east are low-risk, low- of new cases, there is no reason for conducted in the mid-1980s and again incidence areas. complacency. Maps show a steady spread from 2010. The results suggest that the Each of these areas now has a different of bovine TB from 1986 through to 2010, number of badger groups – which is not management strategy. The high-risk mainly from the southwest in a northerly the same as the badger population – has areas are characterised by clusters and and easterly direction. When these increased by between 70 and 105 per cent. mini-outbreaks of TB, driven both by maps are compared with a map of the This rise in the number of badger groups badger contact and by residual infection

12 FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) bovine tuberculosis

DISCUSSION a vaccine that does not affect the skin Questions for future research test, and on a test that can differentiate between infected and uninfected animals, The focus of current research may be too narrow. For example, have there known as the ‘Diva test’. been studies about how the general health of herds affects their susceptibility However, it is not expected that such a to TB? What is the role of the vet? Has consideration been given to increasing vaccine will be available in the immediate the resistance of cattle to TB by selective breeding? Has account been taken future. It is likely to take another 10 years of the great variation in types of TB in cattle? Do controls need to be more before there is a licensed cattle BCG. site-specific? Have we overlooked some other control option or subtlety in the At the same time, research is being ecosystem? More research is urgently needed, particularly into the transmission carried out to develop vaccines for badgers, pathways of TB from badger to cattle and cattle to cattle, the development of and there is now an injectable badger better testing methods for TB in both cattle and badgers, and tagging systems to vaccine that is licensed and available for measure badger habits. use. Although there is limited experience of its use in the field, it has the potential to be a useful tool. From a practical and cattle-to-cattle contact. In these assessment. It is very important that perspective, the most desirable type of areas, cross-infection between badgers is farmers are given more knowledge about badger vaccine would be an oral vaccine, greatest and control of badger-to-badger the TB history of a herd that they are but this is likely to be at least five years transmission is an important factor. The buying from. In this way, they can make away, and it is not at present clear whether strategy in these areas is to bear down on decisions that will help to reduce the such a vaccine can be produced at all. the disease by using all available measures. spread of TB through cattle movements. In the ‘edge’ area the main strategy In the future, it may be possible to Wildlife control is to prevent geographical spread and identify and remove infected badgers There is evidence from the Randomised reduce the incidence of new cases. or badger setts. Farmers may also be Badger Control Trial that, if carried In the low-risk area the objective is better able to reduce TB spread through out in a widespread, coordinated and to keep the disease out and to maintain husbandry measures, for example using efficient way over a sustained period official TB-free status. the design of farm buildings to keep of time, removal of badgers can reduce wildlife separate from cattle. However, the incidence of TB in cattle. In areas Intensive testing our knowledge of the routes of cross- of the world where TB control has been Intensive testing, coupled with infection is incomplete. More work needs addressed, control of a wildlife reservoir, slaughtering of cattle, is an important tool to be done in this area in order to provide where it existed, has been an important in reducing the spread of TB. Surveillance farmers with accurate, evidence-based factor. As mentioned earlier, although in slaughterhouses allows infection to information. badger-to-cattle transmission of TB is be traced back to particular herds to not very efficient, indirectly badgers may identify where repeated TB breakouts are Vaccination be causing up to 50 per cent of cattle happening. Although intensive testing The potential of vaccination is still being infections in high-risk areas. and slaughtering are important, they are explored. At present the only available The need to control wildlife is not enough on their own. Around 30,000 vaccine against TB is BCG. However, supported by evidence from Ireland cattle are slaughtered due to TB annually. BCG is only about 60 per cent effective in with respect to badgers, New Zealand in the protection of uninfected animals and possums, Australia in the feral buffalo, Biosecurity has no known effect on infected animals. the USA in the white-tailed deer and Biosecurity relies on voluntary, risk- It also interferes with the tuberculin skin Spain in the wild boar. There are lessons based cattle trading and farm-based risk test. There is work being done to develop from these countries for us. ☐ Clarifying points of agreement and disagreement Chris Gaskell

ovine tuberculosis a very areas under debate. we came to appreciate the problems of complex and serious problem, Just to underline this, it is noteworthy the policy maker, particularly in terms no one disputes that. The that the policy in England changed from of how robust the evidence was. In evidence base upon which not-culling to culling at exactly the same reporting back to the Minister, we drew Bpolicy makers have to work is a mixture time as the Welsh policy changed from up a scheme to look at the evidence and of natural science evidence, social science culling to not-culling, on exactly the categorise it under four main headings. evidence, economic evidence and politics. same evidence base. So clearly there is The first would include matters where Those evidence bases are incomplete: an issue here. there was a consensus about an evidence we cannot, as the scientists providing In 2011, I was part of a group asked to base – in other words a minister or policy the evidence base, point to clear and review the natural science evidence base maker could be confident about it. unequivocal evidence in many of the for the Welsh Government. In doing so The second was where there was a

FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) 13 bovine tuberculosis general consensus of expert opinion. to certain criteria, will reduce the In other words there was not robust, Professor Chris incidence of herd breakdown due to controlled experimental work to support Gaskell CBE is bovine TB; the evidence base, but actually most Principal of The • vaccination of badgers will reduce scientists would be confident in offering Royal Agricultural disease and probably infection, but this advice. University. He is a this may take a long time; Then there was an area where the veterinary surgeon • in certain parts of the country at by profession, support was less robust – there was least, cattle vaccination is one of the is a graduate majority support for something, but no medium-term measures that we need of the University of Bristol, and real evidence base, just a deal of common has worked at the Universities of to examine closely; sense. Pennsylvania, Bristol and Liverpool. • eradication will require a collection Finally, there was a category where At Liverpool he was Dean of the of measures and it will be difficult to there was some support but no real Veterinary Faculty and then Pro- identify which will have the major evidence. The views were not supported Vice-Chancellor. He is a member impact. by the majority but were probably worthy of the Chief Scientist for Wales’ But we do not agree on some other things. of further consideration. Science Advisory Council, and of There is no agreement, for example, on the Welsh Bovine TB Eradication how best to control disease and infection Basic premises Programme Board. in the wildlife reservoir. There is the So that led us to draw up a few basic nub of the issue for the policy makers – premises which I think are worth whether to vaccinate, as in Wales, or to restating. The first is that TB is a major benefit from reducing contact between cull which is the current policy in England. problem in cattle and badgers, in Wales cattle and badgers. Where prevalence People also disagree on how Draconian in our case, but also in certain regions of is high in badgers there is more likely to be in controlling cattle-to-cattle England, but not in Scotland. to be transference, although it is not a transmission. There seems to be an appetite The eradication of bovine TB in cattle straightforward relationship. for risk-based trading. Farmers want to will require the simultaneous use of a There is also evidence, based on play their part in disease eradication, but range of measures: there is no ‘silver laboratory and some field trials, that they need to be confident that the measures bullet’. That is disappointing for scientists vaccination of badgers will make a they are being asked to implement will because we may not be able to determine difference to immunity in the badger deliver. The social science about the which particular measure is most effective population. There is no evidence that farming community is important. because the solution will have to involve a this will affect the incidence in cattle, but There are also further questions to mix of approaches. common sense suggests it would. be answered. Are the measures being The measures will vary by geographical In the report to the Welsh Government, applied to cattle bespoke enough for area and, by implication, according to we went on to talk about the vaccination the region or even the farm under the degree of severity or prevalence of of cattle against TB. We also made the consideration? If different areas of the disease. There may well be particular point that the social science evidence country require different measures, epidemiological issues in different areas base is as important as the natural science there is a strong argument that some as well. evidence base in any policy. To control of those individual measures should be There is a general consensus, and eradicate the disease in cattle, all even more bespoke and targeted. As supported by an evidence base, that parties have to be committed to the a veterinary surgeon I believe that the cattle-to-cattle transference is crucially policy, and that includes the farming local vet, properly informed and properly important. Some will argue about the population. So the confidence of the equipped, is one of the key players in relative importance compared to badger- farming population in the chosen advising an individual farmer about TB to-cattle transference, but cattle-to-cattle measures is hugely important. However, control on his farm. remains a fundamental issue, explicitly the social and economic evidence base is There is an urgent need to determine made by the Randomised Badger Culling incomplete. whether – and how – we could deploy a Trial report in 2007. Finally, we concluded that, licensed cattle vaccine. There is also a general consensus, notwithstanding all the scientific Biosecurity measures need to be based on an evidence base, that there evidence, this would ultimately be a revisited to see if these are stringent is an association between bovine TB in political decision. enough as part of the protection of our badgers and in cattle in those areas where cattle herd from badgers. it is endemic in both species – nobody Issues Then I think scientists and contests that. So, what are the points of agreement and policymakers need to step back and take There is, crucially, an evidence base disagreement on this issue? Well, we a fresh look at the issue. Are we sure we that culling badgers will make a difference agree that: are not missing something important? to the incidence, or the increase in • badgers and cattle infect each other Are we convinced there is nothing else prevalence, of the disease in cattle. The and themselves; that might have an impact? Are there Randomised Badger Culling Trial showed • infection in wildlife reservoirs has to other farming or husbandry practices that that the number of cattle outbreaks can be controlled if eradication is to be are having unintended consequences? be reduced by culling badgers – there is a achieved; What is the impact of maize growing, for debate about whether that is enough and • measures to reduce cattle-to-cattle example? What is the cause of the badger whether it is sustainable, but there is an infection are important in the control population explosion? Should we be evidence base for this reduction. and eradication of the disease; talking about badger population control There is evidence that there is • the culling of badgers, carried out at all? ☐

14 FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) agricultural technologies

With the United Nations forecasting that the world will need to increase food production by 40 per cent in the next 15 years, what are the most effective ways of achieving this? And what part can the UK play? These questions were discussed at a meeting of the Foundation on 21 May 2014. A strategy for the future of UK agriculture George Freeman ithin 30 years the world in turn could be used to tap into emerging will need to double food George Freeman markets and so help to grow our global production on the same MP is Member sales and our own broader life-sciences amount of land, but with of Parliament for clusters. half as much water and energy. The science Mid-Norfolk and W was asked by the of how to produce more food from less is Integration an area where the UK can play a leading Universities and In order to do all these things, the Agri- Science Minister to role. For the last two or three decades, tech Strategy was launched in July 2013. take the lead in the political drive to though, we have treated agriculture not At its heart was the aim of integrating three develop the Agri-tech Strategy. He so much as a prime economic asset, a key pillars: science and innovation; supply was elected to Parliament in May industry, but as a very important arm of 2010. He has written and spoken chains; and the global markets we want to hedgerow and countryside management. widely on the potential of Britain’s engage with. That has now changed. science and innovation economy The Science and Innovation pillar is The Coalition Government has set out a to unlock huge trade and inward not just about deep science within the series of ambitious, industrial strategies for investment opportunities in fast laboratory, but also about close-to-market sectors it has identified as key to long-term emerging global markets. In July technology. That has to connect to the economic growth for this country: the life 2014, he was appointed Minister for supply chain – from the lonely Hebridean sciences, aerospace and digital technology Life Sciences. sheep farmer right up to our global brands. and a number of others. And then, finally, there is the link to the The final strategy to be announced was global markets that have the capacity to Agri-tech1: Government has recognised phones, low chemical use and accurate 21st invest in our science. Crucially, among this as a key industry. That is not just for century farming. the emerging markets are those serving its importance in producing more food – While the Government spent £450 people who, within 20 or 30 years, will important though that is – but as a source million in 2011-12 on agricultural R&D, have developed a more Western style of of technologies, intellectual property no single agency was responsible for this life, with aspirations to live and eat more transfer and global trade. spend: it was divided across 21 different like us as well. bodies and there was no central strategy. Three years ago I met the Minister Agriculture and manufacturing The science base, brilliant though it is, for Food Security from Qatar whose British farming is the largest part of our had become cut-off from the progressive office has a budget of billions of pounds. manufacturing sector. It makes a vast parts of the farming industry. There was When I asked him how much of that contribution to the UK economy. However, no integrated strategy, vision or business would be allocated to the UK he told me: productivity is not rising and if we are to plan for accessing and exploiting global “Nothing. Nobody has been to tell me be a crucible of innovation and help the markets. what is available.” Inward investment is as world tackle the grand challenge of feeding Yet by attracting investment into important as exports. It has to be a two- itself then we need rising productivity. In our science base it would be possible to way flow. addition, given the extraordinary rises in generate more IP and technology spin-outs commodity prices, we need to be able to which would drive up the competitiveness A blueprint for success produce more from less. and productivity of British farming. That What might success look like? Critically, Those rises are for various reasons

including climate change, which is altering DISCUSSION global geography and the geography of Research and innovation crop production. There is pressure on water supply due to population growth and While a great deal of research and innovation is being carried out by major conflicting demands on land use. Scratch international agricultural engineering companies such as Ford or John Deere, beneath the surface of many of the geo- there is very little being done in this sector by smaller UK manufacturers. New political hotspots around the world and technologies such as robotics, data mining, new materials, engine performance there is a food or water or land shortage. improvement and satellite positioning could all help to improve productivity and The Agri-tech Strategy is not just about are often led by smaller firms. Equally important is the design and manufacture GM and plant science, it is also concerned of food processing equipment, in which there is definitely room for an expansion with satellite-guided equipment, precision of UK capacity. farming, engineering, informatics, smart

FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) 15 agricultural technologies this is not a strategy just for Ministers, witness world-class innovation relevant new generation, not just of business leaders the Department of Business, Innovation to them. The centres will also link into but also of technologists, of designers, of and Skills (BIS) and the National Farmers the agricultural colleges and agricultural technicians and of employees on the farm. Union (NFU). It needs to embrace all societies so that county shows are not just Our farm workers are already hugely the relevant parties, including our huge a celebration of 18th century progress, but skilled but they are going to become even research and science base and the global of 21st century innovation – and young more expert and professional as the sector ‘ag-bio’ companies (initially on the 80/20 people will be inspired by this world-class embraces new technologies. rule that the biggest 20 per cent have industry. In a connected world, regulation too the capital and the expertise to drive this The first of these centres will focus spans national boundaries. However, as strategy, with the rest following). on agricultural informatics in order to we focus on global markets, it is becoming The food industry is a highly try and establish a global lead for the UK apparent that the EU is an increasingly competitive sector, often operating on very in this field, which applies big data to unhelpful jurisdiction in which to tight margins. It does, though, invest in modern farming. Importantly, these hubs do agriculture and innovation. The its own R&D and may be able to help and centres will be industry-led. Government has sent out a very strong guide this process and ensure investment is One of the most exciting clusters is in message on GM and on the application directed to the right areas. Norwich. It has world-class programmes of genetics more broadly in agriculture. The non-profit organisations, both big in plant science and environmental In the review of our relationship with the and small, have a crucial role to play as technology – the clean-tech technologies EU, the UK may have to look to repatriate well. and the nutritional work at the Norfolk and agricultural biotechnology jurisdiction: if Norwich Hospital for example. Elsewhere, Europe wants to return to the Dark Ages, The programme Harper Adams is creating a cluster in the UK will not be locked in too. A better The strategy is built around four specific robotics and engineering while there outcome of course would be for Europe to activities. The first strand is the Agri-tech is exciting work taking place in animal become a progressive crucible, a driver – as Catalyst Fund which is modelled on the science in Scotland. it was in the Enlightenment – for science Biomedical Catalyst established within the The third is the Institute of Agricultural and technology in agriculture. Life Sciences Strategy. Anyone wanting to Metrics. Around the world there is a The Government has taken a lead in develop a technology or an innovation that fast-growing sector concerned with the this area by setting out the Strategy. It helps to produce more from less, is eligible application of data and information in 21st has put money on the table and it is now for support if the work is to be carried out century agriculture. This helps to drive absolutely crucial that the industry steps here in the UK. It is not venture capital – policy, but also commercial applications. forward. There is a huge opportunity the Government does not take equity in There are already companies in the UK for industry with these centres and the the business – all that is required from the aggregating the agronomic data and our Catalyst programmes. applicant is to draw up a business plan to vision is to create a centre of excellence. We also have an opportunity as a nation pull in matched funding and demonstrate If Britain can take the lead here, then it to take the lead in metrics. One way of a protectable asset. Bids are open and the can remain at the forefront for the coming starting that process is by hosting a global first funds have been allocated. decades. conference on the subject in Britain and Already, five specialist venture capitalists The last major project centres on using that as a launchpad for the Institute have been to see me and discussed opening Emerging Markets. The Department of Agricultural Metrics. an office here in the UK with the vision for International Development (DFID) Most important of all is communicating of building a cluster here to help drive the has put £10 million into a catalyst fund to the public that 21st century agriculture sector. for technology transfer. We want to is something to be excited about; that Second, the Treasury has allocated £90 demonstrate to the public that British Britain is leading the drive for clean, green, million to invest in a series of agricultural agriculture, science and innovation are not modern farming systems that will produce innovation hubs. These will be places just vehicles to maximise profit in the more from less. People can be proud where the deep science expertise that exists British supply chain, but can help the world again of what British science, engineering in our great research institutes can be feed itself. and innovation is doing in the agricultural brought out into the field. So they are sector. ☐ both virtual and physical. These will be Inspiring a generation 1. www.gov.uk/government/publications/ places which British farmers can visit to The real key to success will be to inspire a uk-agricultural-technologies-strategy

Taking a consistent approach to Government procurement Peter Bonfield he British Food Plan is a cross- people in prison, our military and armed healthier and vibrant farming food supply Government project looking forces, local workers in local authorities, chain in this country and how that feeds at the public sector’s role in etc, through its procurement practices. into issues such as food security, jobs, creating a healthier population The other element looks at how to do this employment and the rural economies. Tamong school children, hospital patients, is in a way that supports an economically Procurement, of course, is about

16 FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) agricultural technologies money – influencing how it is spent (taking into account price, quality and provides an opportunity to encourage Dr Peter Bonfield other factors) in a way that gives best innovation and create better outcomes. It OBE FREng is value per pound and delivers the required was a key part of my role at the Olympic Chair of Defra’s outcomes? Where is the evidence? Well, it Delivery Authority. British Food Plan is the Olympics. About a year and a half ago, I was and Chief Executive asked by the Government to lead an of the BRE Group. Lessons independent review of forests and His focus as BRE’s What are the lessons to be learned from woodlands. This followed a controversy Chief Executive is that experience? First, employing people to drive innovation and improve over the proposed sell-off of publically- and organisations that are responsible in sustainability across all sectors. owned estate. Work carried out by a panel how they employ their own people is He believes that research has a led by the Bishop of Liverpool highlighted key role to play in this, providing essential. Making sure that products are two issues in particular. One was that the evidence base that underpins sourced in the right way (in terms of forests and woodlands were too reliant successful delivery. He was on provenance, embodied impacts, etc) is a on Government grants and did not have part-time secondment to the part of the process too. enough economic vitality (employment, Olympic Delivery Authority When we adopted this approach at the growth). This in turn was impacting on (ODA) from 2006 until 2012, Olympics, most people said it would not the quality of the woodlands: there was where he co-created the sustainable work and everybody thought it would less access and less biodiversity. development strategy for the cost more. In reality, though, responsible Rather than write a thick report Olympics and supported its delivery. companies do what they say they are making recommendations that no-one going to do. In construction, that really would take any notice of, I wanted to helps because the amount of rework is get on and try to fix the problems. So we need to address that. much reduced. we spent six months on it and called it A substantial proportion of all the Take concrete, for example. It is ‘Grown in Britain’. We made it into a food that is given in hospitals is wasted. grey, comes in liquid or solid forms, it cause: creating a sustainable future for our In a time of austerity and efficiency in helps build things. At the Olympics, forests and woodlands. The trick is to put Government spending, that cannot be six international companies competed to real economic sustainability first. It was right. Recent studies show that overall supply concrete. The embodied impacts finished in October 2013 and has since 30 per cent of all the food that is bought of materials is one of the measures we blossomed. It has generated hundreds of is wasted. How can that be allowed to used in assessing bids, and so it was one millions of pounds of investment from the happen? area where they competed to make a private sector. We now have more than Looking at the rural communities difference. They reduced the embodied 20 million people in the country who are where much of our food is produced, impacts by substituting cement (which is active in woodlands and I included at the how can we get more money into those very high-impact, a tonne of CO2 emitted end of the report a very small paragraph communities to help them create jobs, for every tonne of product) with waste which described the “wouldn’t it be nice wealth and local employment? materials. This reduced environmental ifs…” Agriculture – including food – is impacts and cut cost – in that way less I have since been invited back to see the largest manufacturing sector in the money is spent but there is a better the Secretary of State for the Environment country. Government purchasing is outcome. and asked to apply some of these insights responsible for about 7 per cent of all By being less prescriptive about the to food. I am truly independent: I have food service sales, which includes schools, product but, instead, measuring bids no knowledge of food and no knowledge hospitals, prisons, local authorities, central against the balanced scorecard of factors, of farming. I do have some knowledge Government, etc. It is relatively small part there is room allowed for innovation and of Government procurement and how to of the total but overall, it can be used to better outcomes. make it work. influence how people think, how people feel, how people behave and how the The British Food Plan The context private sector behaves. The British Food That was the evidence that inspired the To add some disturbing context: in Plan has been working with some of the British Food Plan. The programme then the UK, one million old people are big retailers because by working together had to devise its own balanced business malnourished and 3 million people in we can create a bigger impact. scorecard for food and catering in the total are malnourished – indeed, 25 Is it possible to get a range of public sector. That involved identifying per cent of hospital admissions involve organisations to buy in a balanced way the array of costs and other factors that malnourishment. People who are malnourished take longer to get better DISCUSSION and their wounds take longer to heal. Demonstrating best practice The learning ability of school children is materially impacted by what they eat. Demonstration farms are crucial if farmers are to learn how to apply good On cognitive tests children who have a science on their own farms. The variability of production on farms is very good breakfast have twice the learning wide; much of this is due to insufficient knowledge of the management of soil capacity than those who do not have a conditions, as well as actual farming practices. Few know how to use water meal. UK citizens are getting increasingly economically and restrict energy use. The demonstration farms will bring all obese – especially children – and that aspects of farming together, so as to improve the economics of the sector, and condition will follow them through life play a major role in helping farmers produce healthier, quality food. and create all sorts of issues. As a nation,

FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) 17 agricultural technologies must be considered when we buy food happened with the Games. be private sector driven, but it is public for school children, for hospital food, or There is nothing online about the plan. sector enabled – there is a regulatory prisons. Then it has to be implemented Rather than raising expectations too early, element, but primarily it is the public across Government – either mandating or we just got on with making it work. sector enabling innovation, rather than strongly encouraging its use. Once the practice is established, an online prescribing or blocking. The current plethora of guidance, presence will be created – again, just like The vision is long-term and involves: rules, standards and other regulations is we did on the Olympics – where people the setting up of a number of groups; confusing. It needs to be tidied up, made who want to buy or sell can find out more. establishing momentum and critical mass; more coherent and consistent – made The key to all of this is innovation; and the description of clear measures of simpler and easier, in fact. There are some some in agri-tech but some also in success. key issues like quality assurance: it is practical areas to make the British supply Pilots have so far been set up in prisons, essential that the food is what it claims to chain more competitive. schools and hospitals, with the process be and that it comes from where it says. being driven through Local Enterprise The scheme needs to be piloted The culture Partnerships (LEPs). The Mayor of because people will come up with lots Another insight taken from the Olympic London is running a competition in two of reasons why it may not work – just as experience is the need to transform the borough. Then there are working groups, they did with the Olympics. Now, while culture in which this all occurs. As with looking at how we enable innovation. we recognise that some elements of the Grown in Britain, too, if everyone adopts a The report was published on 21 July. programme are stronger than others, common vision and puts aside day-to-day What was achieved is remarkable in that it is important to test the ideas, gather competition in order to reach the goal, Government departments are now aligned evidence and learn how to make it work great things can be achieved. A positive on how to buy in a consistent way that will efficiently and effectively. And we should critical culture enables participants to deliver the outcomes we are seeking. ☐ do this in partnership – the private sector, identify problems and then put their https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/ the public sector, suppliers, farmers, energy into fixing them, rather than just system/uploads/attachment_data/ the NFU, etc – learning together just as listing why they are not working. It may file/332756/food-plan-july-2014.pdf

Ensuring food for the future Christopher Haskins

n 1945 my father would be happy reduced from about 70 per cent to around to harvest two acres a day and he The Lord Haskins 60 per cent. would have 10 people in the field to is a crossbench Changes to regulation and farming achieve that. My son is disappointed Peer in the House practice have affected yield. My farm if he, with his two sons, does not manage of Lords. He is a produced four tonnes of wheat per acre I former Chairman 50 acres in a day. The increase in in 1984, but only in two other years since of Northern agricultural productivity in my lifetime then. Botanists may talk about yield Foods and Express has been spectacular. Dairies, and is Chair of the Humber increases of one per cent per annum, yet However, far more change took place Local Enterprise Partnership. He is a that would mean total yield had risen between 1814 and 1914 than took place former Board member of Yorkshire by 30 per cent over recent decades – in between 1914 and 2014. The Reverend Forward Regional Development fact, it has not gone up at all. There are, Malthus wrote his prophecies of doom Agency, and has a wealth of though, a few areas where productivity in the 1780s yet by 1928 the Malthusian experience in regional development is increasing such as intensive livestock Society had shut down! In 18th century and regeneration. production. England, starvation was a real possibility. By 1928, starvation was a thing of the past Priorities for the future in this country. Latterly, in the UK, one of the drivers Looking forward, it is vital to help the There were three groups at work here: was necessity. Britain did not learn the farmers of the developing world produce • scientists – biologists, botanists, lessons of the First World War when the more for themselves. This can be achieved chemists, people like Sir John Law country was threatened by starvation. In through knowledge transfer, mainly via who invented artificial fertilisers; the Second World War, it did learn and, technology and science which is well- • agricultural engineers – who I think as a result, Government incentivised food established. That is not easy because it played a greater part than the scien- production, irrespective of cost and to a requires a huge transformation of farm tists. They include people in com- large extent irrespective of side-effects. structures in the developing world. There panies like John Deere, McCormack, Production has slowed down over recent will be fewer – but bigger – farms, just as Ford and Ferguson; years, though. The food mountains happened in the 19th century in Europe. • farmers themselves – in the 19th cen- across Europe changed the view of the The process is already happening in tury, particularly in North America, EU and incentives were introduced to cut China and India and must be managed farm structures changed to enable the production rather than increase it. Food rather than resisted. farmers to raise the collateral to invest imports into this country have risen over New technologies and science will be in technologies and the new sciences. the past 30 years. Self-sufficiency has needed and that is where the British

18 FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) agricultural technologies research centres come in. They represent because of bad scheduling. Supermarkets a huge resource but one which will order too much from suppliers and then Dr Stephen Axford, primarily benefit people outside of this cancel it. Suppliers have to second- Head of the Agri-tech country, particularly as they develop guess the supermarkets, making product Industrial Strategy, technologies to cope with challenges such ahead of time and then finding they have joined the panel as climate change. over-produced: the consequence is vast after the formal In this country, the biggest quantities of waste. Perfectly good food presentations. In his opportunities are for mechanical is rejected by the supermarkets since introductory remarks, he said: engineering and computing. Precision customers will not take it off the shelves farming is spectacularly exciting. Satellite because of blemishes. From discussions within the Agri-tech positioning will enable farmers to use far Huge progress has been made on community and through talking to retail- fewer inputs than they do at the moment, scheduling of food through the system getting better yields. over the past 40 years – but there is so ers, food processors and manufacturers, Robotics offer a technological much more to be done. As soon as a there seems to be a real appreciation breakthrough in food manufacturing. customer buys a product in a store, at of the potential for the private sector to Marks & Spencer used to employ 5,000 that moment that information should be invest in their own research and in skills people putting sandwiches together. transmitted back to the factory so that an and training. Robotics will take over this type of task in order can be created six days ahead. The There is also a realisation that it is the next 20 years and the impact on our supply chain can then react to customer time to think in a far more collaborative society will be dramatic. behaviour. way about common challenges and an One of the big priorities for scientists Another issue concerns food-related awareness that much research can be today is to deal with the unintended, health problems. The real issue is that done in a pre-competitive environment. negative consequences of scientific people eat too much and do not take Getting together and investigating, for development in previous years. A enough exercise. The number of calories example, the ability of a potato to resist number of the technologies which were people actually consume has halved in the blight, will benefit the entire industry, seen to be good 30 years ago are now last 100 years, but lifestyles have become and the UK economy, as well as the indi- regarded as flawed. Plants are becoming much more sedentary. The reduction vidual businesses involved. more resilient and resistant to sprays and in exercise is much greater than the The Technology Strategy Board has chemicals, animals are more resistant to reduction in calorie intake – we need to opened a funding call for the Informatics antibiotics. Addressing these issues is a cut the calories more. huge priority for the farming world. Centre which is a core part of this strat- Potential crises egy. We expect to make announcements Waste What can governments do to tackle about the other centres or ‘hubs’ later in Waste is another challenge. It can be possible food crises in the future? First the year. divided into two categories. First, there of all, reduce barriers to food trade across The Government is delivering this pro- is the waste created in the developing the world. There are still far too many and gramme at pace. The Agri-tech Catalyst world from food which never gets out of food is a particularly sensitive issue. I am is already in operation with money being the fields – whether because farmers have a director of a company that exports pigs allocated. Innovation is being supported not got the technology, the resources, for breeding to China. The regulatory across a spectrum from basic science the machinery to cultivate and harvest obstacles faced in moving a high-quality through to business behaviours. it in time or, most importantly, to store live animal to a country like China are The societal and health impacts of it. There is too little infrastructure to nightmarish. A priority for governments this strategy are also potentially massive. take it from farms to places to be stored all over the world is to make food move For example, more effective production and sold. more freely from the areas with surpluses of better foods could have an enormous In the developed world, the waste to the areas with shortages. There is a influence on disease. Obesity rates are of food is obscene: some 30 per cent of balance to be found between, on the one going up, not just in this country, but also the food bought in our shops never gets hand, promoting responsible, science-led in other parts of the world such as Asia, eaten. We order too much, we eat too regulation and, on the other, outlawing much, we throw away far too much – practices which might seriously endanger with the associated susceptibility to dia- often through ignorance because we do people. But a lot of public trust in the betes and so on. not know how to make yesterday’s meal industry has been jeopardised due to We must not focus solely on a parochi- into another for today. People of my issues like BSE and GM. al, domestic environment. British science generation would make the Sunday joint Finally, there is an astounding can make an impact on the wider world. last through till Tuesday at least. Now variability of performance in this sector. While it can help to drive increased if a joint is not finished on Sunday it is The difference between a well-run farm trade, UK technology can also pioneer thrown away. and a badly-run farm is enormous. In solutions to global challenges: the planet So wastage occurs because of any other industry those badly-run farms is not large enough to sustain agricultural ignorance, indulgence or neurosis. Sell- would go to the wall. In this industry, production for a rising population with by dates have become a licence for people they carry on. This is partly because land current methods. We have to sell more to get concerned about themselves. Most values are so high and there is a cushion, ‘intelligent’ foods, future-foods even, into shelf-lives are not necessary because food partly because people think farming is a some of the markets. There is no reason tends to tell you if it is wrong! way of life rather than a business. There is why the UK should not be the global Waste in restaurants, supermarkets a large number of structural issues in UK leader in this area. and factories is also far too high and that is farming which need to be put right. ☐

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The UK and China are both heavilycommitted to research and innovation. A meeting of the Foundation on 11 June 2014 looked at how collaborations and partnerships could be increased. Identifying the opportunities for collaboration Tony Cheetham

he Royal Society has a number chemistry, and then biochemistry and of Memoranda of Understanding Professor Tony molecular biology: there are around four (MOUs) with international Cheetham FRS times as many engineering papers as life organisations, including the is Treasurer and science contributions. TChinese Academy of Sciences. One of Vice-President of the themes of our International Strategy the Royal Society. Intellectual property is the development of stronger links with He was Professor Then there is the difficult issue of the emerging economic powers, and in in the Materials intellectual property. There is a certain particular China, India and Brazil. Official Department of the University of apprehension among many companies California at Santa Barbara from visits to China began in 1961. about the ability to operate effectively in 1991 until 2007. In 1992 he took There are many conceptions and China while safeguarding their IP. Things up the Directorship of the new misconceptions about science in China Materials Research Laboratory. have improved a great deal but there have and they affect people’s views on whether In 2004, he became the Director been recent instances in the life sciences we should collaborate scientifically. One of the new-created International and pharmaceutical areas that have given which is frequently heard is that Chinese Center for Materials Research at cause for concern. This affects our ability to scientists excel at execution, but are Santa Barbara, and then in 2007 engage totally with China on technologies weaker at discovery and innovation. It moved to Cambridge to become the that are close to the market. is also widely believed in companies that Goldsmiths’ Professor of Materials For an academic, this is less of an issue. intellectual property is not well protected Science. If people listen to our talks or read our there. There have been concerns about papers and have even better ideas, well that plagiarism and falsification in Chinese of the world’s leading scientific journals. is the way that science works after all. science. Then, finally, there is a view Chinese science is now in the Premier Plagiarism and fraud in scientific that maybe Chinese universities are not League in footballing terms. The future publishing are problems everywhere. It comparable with British ones. Each of trend is absolutely clear. may be more of a problem in China than these issues is discussed below. There is a large volume of great science in most places as a consequence of the being done by China. This is good for the manner in which the Chinese system Discovery science global scientific endeavour and it is a good rewards scientists for publishing papers in Is discovery science weak in China? Well, thing for mankind as well. high impact journals, and large numbers the volume of publications from China is Table 1 shows the number of joint of them. In China, there is a strong second only to the USA now. But what publications from different countries with correlation between where you publish, about the quality? China. The UK is in second place behind how much you publish, and your salary Science is arguably the world’s leading the USA – ahead of Japan, Germany, or academic post. To a certain extent scientific journal and is published Australia and France. Analysing the this is true everywhere, but it is the heavy by the American Association for the figures according to the field of research, reliance on impact factors that can lead to Advancement of Science. In 2000, there they are dominated by engineering in the undesirable results. I know from personal were five times as many papers from the broader sense, followed by physics and experience with my co-workers that impact UK as from China, now it is 1.5 times – the

trend is clear. It can be seen in fields such DISCUSSION as physics, biotechnology and chemistry. A change in attitude There is clear evidence of convergence on quality at the top end of Chinese There needs to be a change in attitude in our education system, from schools and British science. Everyone expects, through to universities. Universities need a new approach both to Chinese of course, that China will overtake us in students studying in this country (who could form an important alumni base for the near future, although there remain the future) as well as establishing a more effective UK academic presence in significant differences from field to field. China. A longer term view is necessary; and much more effort has to go into Does the work have any impact? developing a deeper and wider understanding of Chinese culture (and better Citations to Chemical Communications, a language skills) on the part of students and researchers, for many of whom China leading chemical journal published by the remains a cultural ‘blind spot’. Existing UK expertise in these areas – as in the Royal Society of Chemistry, is shown in School of African and Oriental Studies – could be exploited more effectively. Figure 1. China is clearly having a much greater impact than in the past in many

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universities have instigated exchange Collaboration between China and Joint publications 2000-2013 programmes with them and we are in a ... very strong position: English is after all our native language and there is a preference USA 160,611 for native English-speaking collaborators and even faculty. UK 47,204 The Leiden ranking of universities looks simply at research output and the rankings are based upon citations per Japan 43,112 paper. It is normalised per paper for the comparison of different institutions. It is Germany 29,277 also normalised for differences between fields. Life sciences papers are cited much more than chemistry, which in turn is more Australia 28,899 than physics and engineering, for example. The ranking takes account of that. Canada 27,495 On the latest ranking, the top Chinese university was Fudan, at number 96 in France 17,785 physical sciences. It was slightly ahead of Edinburgh and Durham, which were 107 and 108 – so that puts the numbers Table 1. International collaboration into context. Tsinghua University was 142, only just behind Sheffield and Bath. Comparing that with other countries, the top Indian university was the Indian 40000 Institute of Science in Bangalore which was 288 – no-one would regard the IISc 35000 Bangalore as being anything other than a premier research institution! China is 30000 much stronger in some fields than others. In the life sciences, for example, the top 25000 university was Tsinghua at 208.

20000 Britain and China China Is Britain well-placed to respond to the UK growth in Chinese science? The first point 15000 to note is that there is a massive mismatch between the number of Chinese students 10000 studying here and the number of Britons who are studying in China. In 2012, about 5000 46,000 Chinese students arrived in the UK to study, so at any given time there may 0 be 135-140,000 here. The number going from the UK to China in the same year

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 was about 4,000. That puts us well behind France, which had 8,400 students, and Germany at 6,300. Figure 1. Citation data from Chemical Communications (RSC). Now the figure for Chinese students in Britain does not include all the people who factors are used very widely for assessing China is carried out in the Institutes of the come here for post-docs, so the mismatch researchers in China. The Royal Society Chinese Academy of Sciences. There are is even greater at that level. There are visa has signed the San Francisco Declaration, about 100 of these and they are separate issues at the post-doctoral level in Britain which discourages the use of impact factors from the universities. They have no and so the first choice for many is to go to for the assessment of individuals. counterparts in Britain, so comparisons the USA. While IP and other issues cannot be swept are not possible. For the future, we need a workforce under the carpet, things are getting better. China operates more like Germany that is well-informed about the strengths For example, the advent of big data and where the Max Planck Society dominates and weaknesses of China and familiar with electronic screening of submissions means research in many respects, with its large Chinese culture. Only then can we really that it is becoming much more difficult to get network of high-powered centres. That truly make the best of working with our away with plagiarism or publishing multiple having been said, there are a number of Chinese colleagues. copies of the same paper. universities that are strong at research, Academic collaborations with China such as Peking University and Fudan, are highly desirable because China has Chinese universities as well as the CAS University of Science developed into one of the leading scientific A large proportion of the best science in and Technology. A number of British nations in the world. From the Royal

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Society’s point of view, this is a top priority: more young British scientists need to be undertaken by email. Face-to-face we want to engage. experience China and to see first hand the interactions are extremely important There is already a great deal of opportunities for scientific collaboration in when dealing with China, so it is vital to collaboration between the UK and this huge country. get ‘feet on the ground’ and spend time China. Most of it is supported by the Politically and economically, the UK there in order to make the most of the National Natural Science Foundation of should not underestimate the soft power opportunities. China (NSFC) or the Chinese Academy of of scientific engagement, which has 1. www.gov.uk/government/publications/newton- Sciences. However, the recently announced historically been so important in our fund-building-science-and-innovation- Newton Fund1 will increase the support engagement with Russia, South Africa, capacity-in-developing-countries/newton- from the UK. Argentina – and now China. fund-building-science-and-innovation- The most important message is that Yet this is not something that can capacity-in-developing-countries A view from China Michael Kwok

rup is a trust-owned to the cities. The rate of urbanisation – global consulting company Michael Kwok is a at an average of 1 per cent per year – is of planners, engineers, Director of Arup likely to continue for the next 16 years. designers, project managers and Head of its This means an extra 13 million new city and consultants. It has over 11,000 staff Shanghai Office. dwellers every year over that period. A He has taken charge spread across 90 offices in 35 countries. That amounts to the population of a city of a number of More than a quarter are based in China; like Plymouth moving every week. The major Arup projects over 2,200 in Hong Kong and more than numbers are just staggering. in China, including 800 staff in the mainland. the National Stadium (the Bird’s Urbanisation is an important aspect of Research and innovation have a Nest), the CCTV New Headquarters Chinese government policy for economic long history in Arup – they are key Building, and the Beijing Capital growth. Urbanisation and a rise in per components of our business. We International Airport Terminal capita income go hand in hand and this connect with our clients, collaborators 3. He set up the Arup offices in means hundreds of millions of Chinese and academics through a focus on new Shanghai, Beijing, Wuhan and will be entering the middle class. thinking and through developing new Chongqing, and he is responsible It is recognised that domestic skills and techniques in order to satisfy for developing Arup’s business and consumption will take over from our future business needs. Innovation operations in mainland China. Government investment and exports as helps us stay ahead of the competition the main driver of economic growth. China has the potential to provide Debate is intensifying on how to focus us with a strong platform for further 10 per cent in GDP over the past three innovation to cope with the speed and innovation, drawing on its scale, decades. China has now overtaken the scale of change. Basically we are talking speed, hunger, drive, a demand for USA as the largest construction market about innovating for 1.3 billion people. innovation and an endless supply of in the world. The main driver of that However, 30 years of growth and human resources and talents. Not only activity is urbanisation. development have brought major do we want to capture the vast China In 1978, more than 80 per cent of environmental problems in their wake. markets, but in time we hope to move the Chinese population were living in Consequently, there are ambitious targets significant elements of our value chains rural areas and in 1990 the figure was for China to reduce carbon intensity, into China in order to support Arup’s still around 74 per cent. By 2012, 52.6 both at national and city levels. There is global business. per cent of the nation was living in the a strong demand for innovative solutions Let me give you an example of the cities: in 34 years, more than 400 million that will curb emissions while at the same scale and speed at which the Chinese people have moved from the countryside time maintaining economic growth, economy is progressing. Arup’s very first project in China was the Hilton Hotel in DISCUSSION Shanghai. At 145 metres it was one of A two-way flow the tallest buildings in China 30 years The UK should put more emphasis on multi-disciplinary approaches: through the ago. We devised a composite concrete core and steel frame system: this was Research Councils, Academies and the Learned Societies it is well placed to do its first use in China, but since then it so. The UK also has a strong historical record on urbanisation upon which to has become the industry standard. We draw, including the fact that London – unusually in advanced Western countries have built taller and taller buildings as – is still expanding. Collaborations should flow in both directions, engaging time has gone on, with more complex partners in academia and in commerce while exploiting new paradigms such as engineering techniques. the Catapult Centres. It is important not to see collaboration as solely what we All this has happened in the wake can do for the Chinese market. We need to learn from China and to encourage of the economic miracle that China has Chinese expertise and investment into the UK. created in the last 20 years. The country has had an average annual growth of

22 FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) UK-China partnerships so that the trajectory of urbanisation In China, on a day-to-day basis we restructuring by 2020, incorporating can continue. Such solutions will be are pushed by the technical challenges decarbonisation and clean air strategies. applicable to many parts of the world. and at the same time we are pulled by With the South China University of There are many green technology the business need to stay ahead of the Technology we have been reviewing the initiatives to help achieve the ambitious game. Like many other organisations, current business frameworks for Smart carbon reduction targets, including: we have limited funding and resources Cities and determining how this can renewable energy, low-carbon (particularly for research), so we have feed into the Smart Guangzhou project, automotive, green building and the to set priorities. Where the research proposing a revised future business gradual implementation of Smart Grids. has a high priority, Arup provides full framework with challenges and timelines. One of the most important and effective funding; for other research topics where Arup has been working with partners programmes has been in transport. Take we have shared interests with others, we including the London School of Hygiene urban metro as an example: in 1995 there will provide match-funding or jointly and Tropical Medicine, UCL and were only four lines running in three apply for external support. Peking University, on a project funded cities in China. By 2013 there were 55 Very often innovation can also be through the EU’s Seventh Framework lines in 17 cities. By 2015 there will be achieved through project collaboration. Programme. In this we have been over 87 lines in 25 cities. The National Swimming Centre in jointly developing methods to quantify The Beijing Changxindian Eco- Beijing – or the Water Cube as it is the positive and negative impacts on City is a project for which Arup was better known – was a project with very health and wellbeing of greenhouse gas engaged to provide conceptual and strong research aspects. There were reduction strategies in urban areas of detailed regulatory planning for a site of many design elements that were ground- Europe, China and India. 5 square kilometres in the south west of breaking and the first of their kind. The While all this joint activity is very Beijing. For the first time, low carbon project, from concept to completion, positive there are, of course, also challenges and other environmental targets were was the result of a multi-disciplinary involved with research work in China. incorporated into the statutory planning collaboration between Arup and the The country’s research and development requirements. architects, the local design studio and funding structure can be divided into The project combined a strong, the contractor. Government-led and non-Government- bottom-up drive from the developer who There are also other means of led research. Government-led activities saw the business case with a top-down knowledge-sharing with academia, such are typically assigned with good resources drive from local government and policy as technical forums with partnership – they are high profile, strategic projects support. We started the project in 2010 universities and lectures or technical which impact on policy and industrial and the first phase was completed in visits for students. Maintaining good development. This is, of course, just the 2013. The project has been recognised as relationships and connections with type of research activity in which we a successful demonstration of sustainable partnership universities helps to align are very keen to be involved. However, development which is likely to be shared interests and to attract the best although we have a good relationship replicated, adapted and further improved students to join Arup. with the Government, our experience in in other parts of China. We do explore a wide range of bidding for this type of work indicates that research activities with our strategic the balance seems to tip a little more in Research and innovation partners and often formalise agreements preference towards Chinese organisations. In undertaking research and innovation with a Memorandum of Understanding, There are, though, an increasing collaboration in China, we normally which is a very effective way to align number of Government-led, carry out ‘road-mapping’ exercises interests in China. international collaborative research to identify short term and long term For example, we are working with activities in China and we hope, in time, drivers and business opportunities. We the University of Zhengzhou to identify more weight will be given to global then work out priorities for research and a programme which will allow Henan insight and international technical the likely resource needs. Provence to complete its industrial expertise. ☐ The risks and opportunities of partnership Robin Grimes

hat are the drivers for scientists, are likely to be different from of the scientific literature, that investment research? Well, the those of another culture on the other side is reflected in the increasing number of answer is likely to depend of the world, even though there will be a published papers from China. The USA on one’s background and substantial overlap. While we hold a large has always maintained first place in terms Wexperience. As a physical scientist who has number of research drivers in common, of published papers but China is projected spent his entire career either with industry getting our relationship right with China to overtake it in the next year or so. or with academia, in engineering and is about understanding and appreciating science, I see the world in a very specific – as well as actually enjoying – those Risks to the UK way. I am aware that social scientists, for differences. If China becomes the pre-eminent nation example, will see things differently. There has been a startling increase in for research, the risks to the UK of not In the same way, the answers we come the sums China has invested in research collaborating will be substantial. China will to in Britain, whether as physical or social over the last decade and a half. In terms become the largest science nation, not only

FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) 23 UK-China partnerships for output but also investment. Research different area: high-value manufacturing, in science, engineering, medicine, is a long Professor Robin future cities, digital economy, cell therapy, term game and we have to engage over Grimes FREng is satellite applications and more to come. that long term. Otherwise, the UK faces Chief Scientific All these paradigms create places losing not only the status of being at Adviser at the for people – those with the ideas and the intellectual ‘top table’, but commercial Foreign and others with the ability to turn them into opportunity as well. Commonwealth products – to come together. We need to In addition, there would be a loss of Office. He is be doing that with international partners influence. There are a number of areas currently Professor of Materials too. We need to attract our collaborators where the UK wants to influence the global Physics at Imperial College, in China to come to the UK and use these where he directs a research group agenda. Climate change, air quality and innovation centres. Once we have created that predicts the properties and water are among the environmental issues the joint products, the next question is performance of materials for that come to mind immediately but there energy applications. Professor then: “Where do we want to manufacture are other areas that really matter to us here Grimes has advised the House of them?” as well such as, in healthcare for example, Lords Science and Technology UK universities currently attract a large the dementia challenge, antimicrobial Committee’s inquiry into nuclear number of Chinese students – is this going resistance, food safety, etc – the list goes research requirements, and was part to decrease suddenly as China develops on and thus the risks of not being engaged of the Scientific Advisory Group its own? I do not believe that is likely. are significant. for Emergencies (SAGE) which Chinese students will continue to come What do we mean by ‘research’? My provided official advice on the 2011 to the UK and it is not just students background is in the basic science area Fukushima disaster. but also academics. There are 3,000 which is perhaps the more traditional Chinese academics in British universities understanding of the term. But a great at the moment and others in industry and deal of research is now taking place in the Of course, different sectors bring with commerce. Yet there are only about 4,500 commercial space where it is directed to them their own unique challenges. In British students in China and most are on achieving specific market-related goals. space, for example, there is a great deal short term study courses of a few weeks, It involves turning ideas into commercial of discussion in the literature about the rather than three-year doctorates. opportunities. I believe that, particularly dual-use of technologies, particularly with in our collaboration with China, this will satellites. But innovation is not just about Looking forward be absolutely key – finding ways to bridge hardware, it applies to business models as So what kind of relationship should the UK what is often termed ‘the valley of death’. well. There are many businesses in the have developed with China within the next UK offering opportunities to use satellites, couple of decades? There will certainly be Commercial risks to provide data, to provide analysis, and a shift in the places where the research is Exploiting that research is bound up with those growing areas for collaboration are carried out, with much more collaboration questions of intellectual property rights. perhaps less problematic. taking place around the globe. And here many firms perceive significant China is rapidly catching the rest of the Different research and collaboration commercial risks. However, this is now world in aerospace and much of that has models will enable more effective becoming a priority for reform in China been as a consequence of joint ventures, translation from the science, employing itself, being driven by domestic Chinese with product development taking place in more diverse teams of researchers. stakeholders who can see the benefits of both partner countries. What will happen Researchers are likely to become more protection for trademarks, copyrights and when Chinese aerospace companies itinerant, following the research patents. Patents are actually only part of move to the UK? That is going to be an opportunities across the globe. the issue. Infringement of trademarks interesting paradigm. New markets will emerge as people’s can result in loss of market share, as well The life sciences are different again. aspirations continue to grow. The main as loss of reputation. Perhaps even more There is a huge market opportunity for drivers for research and development are important than these problems is the issue rapid commercialisation in China. It is likely to remain the same though. of knowhow. It is the seepage of knowhow an area which also demands a particularly The UK has to develop a smarter, more from companies which is more damaging long-term perspective. strategic approach to collaboration with than anything else. So, different areas have different China. That includes ensuring that our Then there are threats from cyber demands and different research best people work with their best people. espionage. Another area of concern paradigms. What is the future of research We need to attract Chinese innovators to is potential selective enforcement of going to look like? There are a number come to the UK, not just for education but regulations. Dual-use of technologies of models: university research groups, to work in British companies. could be particularly difficult. There are entrepreneur-driven projects (although Education is changing and we should real potential problems if more than one entrepreneurship in the West is not the look at the possibility of joint degrees product or technology is being brought same as in China), corporate laboratories between UK and Chinese universities. Let together, and the difficulties multiply if and national laboratories. Although the us learn from our neighbours too; look the technologies originate in more than last two are less common now in the West at the way the Humboldt Foundation is one country. than they used to be, in the life sciences at setting up joint research institutions in So it would be foolish to deny that there least the pendulum may be swinging back. China. remain difficult issues for organisations Today in the UK, to help accelerate the The long term aim must be to ensure seeking to collaborate with Chinese translation of research into practice, there that the UK is the ‘partner of choice’ for counterparts. These will have to be are the Technology Strategy Board driven China. That is what this debate is really all addressed over the coming years. Catapult centres. Each focusses on a about. ☐

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Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) has been recognised as a global issue. A meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 4 June 2014 looked at the scale of the challenge and possible solutions. Confronting the threat of drug- resistant disease Sally Davies hen I was practising as I am told that farmed salmon in the USA a haematologist, anti- Dame Sally have eaten their weight in antibiotics microbial resistance or Davies DBE FRS by the time they get to the fish counter. AMR (which takes in FMedSci is Chief Scottish farmers tell me that theirs are, Medical Officer for bacteria, fungi and viruses) was already as in Scandinavia, individually vaccinated W England and Chief an issue, but usually if one antibiotic was so very little antibiotic is used. But vets Scientific Adviser ineffective in a given instance, another around the world use a lot. There are at the Department was available. That is no longer always the of Health. Dame Sally is a antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the seas of case. The immediate challenge concerns haematologist with a research interest Antarctica, in the sea around Japan – they bacteria, but the others are becoming in sickle cell disease. She pioneered get into vegetables and agriculture, as well resistant too. This was predicted in the centralisation of the £1 billion as wildlife. MRSA in domestic pets is Fleming’s Nobel Prize acceptance speech Department of Health research effort transmitted to humans who then go into in 1945: this is Darwinian natural selection. through the creation of the National hospitals. Antibiotics underpin so much of Institute for Health Research. Food animals are a real issue. Globally, modern clinical practice: caesarean over 70 per cent of antibiotics are used in births, joint replacements, cancer therapy, Resistance doubles the death rate from animals. There is some evidence linking transplants and the list goes on. Before infections. EU studies conservatively over-use in the animal sector to resistance the discovery of antibiotics, 43 per cent of estimate 25,000 deaths a year – that is the in humans but it is not conclusive. I people who contracted infections died. In same as deaths from road traffic accidents. cannot understand, though, why we have the UK today, it is about 7 per cent. We do A child dies every five minutes in South to prove that it is unsafe for humans to not want to return to those earlier times! East Asia because they have an infection over-use antibiotics in animals (for growth Modern medicine as we know it would which is not treatable because of resistance. promotion) before it stops, rather than for disappear. Indeed, one major European It is a worldwide problem. A resistant proponents to prove it is safe. country recently had to shut down two klebsiella pneumoniae started off in North The message, then, is that we have all of its bone marrow transplant units for Carolina and within only a few years had been abusing antibiotics – throughout the a significant period of time because of spread all around the globe. A Swedish food chain and also patients and doctors. antibiotic resistance. study of healthy young men going off How many people want antibiotics to treat And resistance becomes apparent very travelling found that 25 per cent had drug- a sore throat – and how many GPs give in quickly (see Figure 1). While a couple resistant bacteria in their guts when they to such requests? of those antibiotics took 30 years to lose returned. In the 1990s, this did not matter too effectiveness, for most of them it was a This is not just an issue in human much because if one antibiotic proved decade or less. medicine: it affects animal welfare as well. resistant there were others available. However, in recent decades antibiotic 1930s1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s1990s 2000s discovery has been diminishing – the last Sulphonamides new class of such drugs dates from 1987. So what has gone wrong?’ Penicillin The science is difficult, but not Streptomycin impenetrable. However, drug companies Chloramphenicol are disinvesting in anti-infectives. A major Tetracycline pharmaceutical company has closed its Erythromycin one site which majored on anti-infectives Vancomycin and plans to downsize anti-infectives as it relocates in the UK. Meticillin Part of the reason is the lack of Ampicillin incentives. A little profit on a drug that Cephalosporins is taken every day, like a statin, a diabetes Linezolid drug or a high blood pressure drug, will Daptomycin make much more money than an antibiotic which may only be used once in a person’s lifetime. As Chief Medical Officer, I would Figure 1. History of antibiotic resistance. Time from first clinical use to first clinical resistance.

FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) 25 antimicrobial resistance

DISCUSSION specialist clinics in this country and 2 per A challenge for our times cent of sufferers are now resistant to the last effective drug, cephalosporin. This disease The issue of anti-microbial resistance bears comparison with climate change: is really unpleasant: it results in untreatable international in nature, not regarded as an immediate crisis and therefore urethritis in men and in women it causes lacking adequate institutional arrangements conducive to solutions. As with arthritis and infertility. climate change, there is no simple single solution; AMR is a complex problem Internationally, 65 countries supported with multiple drives, for which a suite of solutions (tailored to the needs and the UK’s resolution at the World Health situations in different countries) is required. Economics, social science and Assembly to develop a global action plan. regulatory change as well imaginative and multi-disciplinary research will all play It is almost unheard of to get that many a part in finding a solution. countries signed up and the Foreign Office helped deliver that. Public Health England is working with laboratories in want to lock up any new antibiotic and for staff and visitors, swabbing as patients South Africa, Australia, New Zealand only release it to save lives. So the tension arrive, treatment for carriers. There has and Singapore under the Commonwealth between selling lots of product to make been similar success with Clostridium umbrella. The National Institute for Health a profit versus the public health need of difficile. This success now needs to be Research (NIHR) has funded work while conserving drugs for emergencies becomes extended to other infections. the Medical Research Council (MRC) is a problem. As a society, we will need to leading an AMR Research Funders Forum agree how to fund new antimicrobials, National and international and working internationally with the EU on because they have to be paid for. initiatives a joint programming initiative in this area. Meantime, the existing arsenal of drugs After the Chief Medical Officer’s report Finally, it would be much easier to has to be conserved. The first step is to of March 2013 was published, the better conserve antibiotics if we had rapid reduce infection, by making sure people Government decided to augment the five diagnostics: we would give antibiotics only ‘catch it, bin it, kill it’. Something as simple year antimicrobial resistance strategy. Six when there are bacteria present. A rapid as washing the hands is important. Yet months later it was re-issued with seven and cheap diagnostic would transform during the 2009 pandemic, data gathered areas of work. This is a cross-Government general practice management. I believe this in one motorway service station showed strategy, encompassing human, animal and is possible within five years – which is why that only one in three men washed their agricultural science. It also covers all parts it was put forward for the Longitude Prize*. hands after they went to the loo – that is of the UK. ☐ not the way to prevent infection. An expert committee which has 1. https://www.gov.uk/government/ It is possible to make a difference. specialists from both human and the publications/uk-amr-strategy-measuring- Blood infections from the MRSA super- animal sectors has been looking at signal- success bug have fallen over the years. This has marker/drug combinations1. The five-year * Antibiotics has indeed been chosen as been achieved with obsessional cleanliness, strategy will incorporate marker diseases. the theme of the Longitude Prize. See the infection control, hand-washing in hospital For example, gonorrhoea is looked after in Update page in this issue. New approaches for an urgent problem Jeremy Farrar

was working as a junior doctor in sufficient to kill them, and the same thing and babies, through pregnant women, all London in the mid-1980s, at the start has occasionally happened in the body…” the way to the end of life. Antimicrobial of the HIV epidemic. Most of us Antimicrobial resistance is a reality; drugs – and this is a critical point – young doctors at that time had not it is happening now in the UK. Statistics are not just the preserve of infectious Iworked in an era where an infection could from the European Centre for Disease disease specialists. It would be impossible not be routinely treated. Experiencing Prevention and Control estimated that to do routine surgery or treat patients HIV, before anti-retroviral therapy came 25,000 patients died from an infection with chemotherapy without access to into being, was really life-changing for me. caused by multidrug-resistant bacteria. In antimicrobial agents. Individuals were dying of an untreatable fact, the number is probably considerably We have misused (and not sufficiently condition. The thought of that situation higher as most cases are not diagnosed – valued) antibiotics over the last three or recurring, but within the wider population, we are still weak at diagnosing infections. four decades. It was thought they would is terrifying. The problem is truly global, so it must last forever. There is a real possibility that such a be tackled at that level: local or regional Certain areas of medicine have been catastrophe could occur in the coming efforts will only have marginal benefit. neglected, specifically microbiology years. Interestingly Alexander Fleming I believe we are currently in a and particularly microbiology and alerted the world to the possibility nearly ‘honeymoon phase’. We have been part pharmacology joined together. Drug 70 years ago in his Nobel Prize acceptance of an era where antimicrobial agents have resistance cannot be dealt with in the speech: “It is not difficult to make microbes been almost universally effective. They isolated world of the microbiologist, resistant to penicillin in the laboratory have tackled all types of bacteria affecting or even that of the infectious diseases by exposing them to concentrations not humans and animals, from young children physician – it has to be tackled through

26 FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) antimicrobial resistance examining the way that drugs are used resistance is one of the most powerful and how the microbe, the drug and the Dr Jeremy Farrar arguments for investment in future body interact. The lack of centres of FRCP FMedSci vaccines. Medical science will never stay excellence in pharmacology in the UK is OBE is Director of ahead of infection – HIV, TB, malaria – if a major problem in addressing this issue. the Wellcome Trust. it only relies on pharmacology. At some Centres of excellence in microbiology He was previously point there will have to be vaccines for the must be re-established, but they have to be at the Hospital for big killer diseases. linked with pharmacology, chemistry and Tropical Diseases The current pathway of regulation veterinary medicine, as well as industry in Ho Chi Minh for new antimicrobial agents is far too and basic science. City, Vietnam, where he directed difficult. Getting to the stage of proof of The world is changing too. People are the Oxford University Clinical concept for a new agent takes too long. In getting larger and yet we continue to use Research Unit. Over the 18 years addition, the use of combinations is not of his tenure in Vietnam the unit the same empiric drug doses that we have encouraged because of the way we regulate grew to become a substantial always used. Does the amount that was industry. Solutions will need action by centre for clinical and public health traditionally given to someone weighing research with a science programme Government, including the provision of 50/60kg work equally well on somebody encompassing immunology, host incentives which really value this group who may be 120kg? The pharmaceutical and pathogen genetics, molecular of drugs. community has not re-examined the biology, virology, and epidemiology. pharmacological profile of many drugs, International action their penetration into critical sites of Our world is driven by many different action or their use in combination therapy. There are also issues that relate more imperatives, not just human health but also Drug levels in the blood will only get us so to social science and behaviour. There animal welfare, business considerations, far if the infection is in the brain or deep needs to be a change of behaviour in the etc. I am concerned about the World lung tissues. Until pharmacologists and way we seek advice and the way we seek Health Organisation’s ability to deliver microbiologists work together to revisit antibiotics. what we need. Is a structure which some of the chemical issues involved, I do New economic models must be found. was set up in the 1940s, with a different not believe we can resolve these issues. The current business model works very mandate and a different approach, still Then there is the question of abuse. GPs well for long term treatments like statins, fit for purpose and able to deliver the are often blamed for this, perhaps unfairly. or where the product has a high perceived cross-sectoral, intergovernmental, global Yet there are other areas of abuse too. In value – as in oncology. However, those solutions we need today? Africa and Asia and now increasingly in the models will not work in an area where The WHO’s great strength is that it West counterfeit drugs are becoming more a drug might not be used, where it may represents all governments, but this is also and more common. Adequate regulation be held back or only given to a patient its greatest weakness. Nearly 200 countries of the quality of drugs is absolutely critical. for a very short period of time. This is have to agree and that often results in A tablet or injection with no antibiotic is where Government must play a role in a totally watered-down set of principles. terrible for the patient. For a population, providing the appropriate incentives for The International Health Regulations in a tablet or injection containing a small the development of new antimicrobials. principle are excellent as, if something quantity of an antibiotic or antiviral can The scientific community also has to happens in London today, it has to be be even worse. Imagine a counterfeit think outside of the box. There are areas reported immediately to the WHO. Yet market in anti-retroviral drugs which have of great potential which have not really we are now 20 months into Middle East 5-10 per cent of the necessary levels and excited much interest in the West yet. Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and its what this may do for the development Phages – viruses that can kill bacteria – source is still unknown, it is not clear of drug resistance. An individual could were studied in the old states of the Soviet how many humans have been affected, perhaps take it for the rest of their life Union. Yet they have been ignored more the mortality rate is not clear and there without knowing it was counterfeit, with recently. We need to embrace insights is not a single systematic clinical study or it not delivering the desired effect and yet that come from less conventional research. randomised patient study. No vaccine is in potentially encouraging the development Antibodies as therapy in infectious late stage development. of drug resistance. diseases and targeted immune therapies We have been very lucky that this virus are also areas worth further research. is only evolving slowly and has not spread The research agenda Finally, the advent of antimicrobial like the related SARs virus did 10 years The research agenda has to take centre stage. I want to pay tribute to the way this DISCUSSION has been led by the Department of Health Resources to tackle the challenge in the UK, but the funding agencies, including the MRC and Wellcome Trust, When the HIV crisis appeared, there was a swift, energetic and concerted need to interact with the pharmaceutical response to what was then an untreatable disease. An important factor industry (and across sectors, particularly contributing to the production of effective medication was the existence of a agriculture and animal health) much huge and relevant science base upon which to draw. The fight against AMR has more closely. There needs to be a pre- no such advantage. Society will have to invest heavily to fill that void and it will competitive stage where an open approach need to incentivise those working in this area. Individuals and organisations are allows all targets to be assessed prior to the prepared to spend big money on insurance. Society should be prepared to spend protection of intellectual property. Unless good money on research to counter AMR as an insurance against a growth in the we get academics and industry together number and prevalence of untreatable diseases. this logjam is not going to be removed.

FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) 27 antimicrobial resistance ago. We need a body with the ability that be the emergence of new infections also needs real teeth to make the decisions to respond much more quickly to these or the emergence of drug resistance. Such that are critical in a rapidly changing rapidly emerging health issues whether a body needs to have global support but environment. ☐ Taking practical steps to promote antimicrobial drug development Patrick Vallance

he era of antibiotic drug discov- resent a major problem at the moment. ery and development was really Professor Gram-negatives can have up to three barriers from 1930 to 1970 and the current Patrick Vallance to antibiotics – the outer membrane, the cell decline started in the mid-1990s. FRCP FMedSci wall and the inner membrane – and further- TThe current challenges have been brought is President, more they are extremely good at getting rid about by the convergence of several factors: Pharmaceuticals of chemicals. They live in toxic chemical a significant rise in the resistance of micro- R&D, at GSK. He environments; they are designed to kick organisms to antibiotics; a decrease in the is responsible for chemicals out. It is incredibly difficult to get number of large pharmaceutical companies ensuring that GSK something into them that stays in. working in this area; and a big drop in the maintains a flow of potential new A further constraint is the high level of number of approvals for new medicines, medicines through the R&D pipe- an antimicrobial drug we need to get into down from approximately 20 in 1980 to just line from early discovery through the blood of somebody with an infection in one or two in the last couple of years. to approval. He has re-personalised order to kill bacteria. Because such massive The number of companies active in this GSK’s Drug Discovery activities by amounts are being employed, there are much setting up small, empowered teams, field has reduced partly because of merg- greater ‘off-target effects’. That dramatically called Discovery Performance Units, ers, while the number of approvals for new increases the potential failure rate due to to drive the success of potential new medicines has decreased due to changes in medicines in the pipeline. Prior potential toxicity at every stage of develop- regulatory procedures. to joining GSK from academia he ment – it is much higher than in other areas. There has been a disproportionate reduc- led the Division of Medicine at It becomes very difficult to develop a medi- tion in antibiotic drug discovery and devel- University College London. cine without it also being toxic. opment over the past couple of decades. There are three main reasons. Trials First, the discovery and development It is possible to find genes which are Once the scientific problem of making a process is difficult, but not impossible, and essential for the life of the microorganism, drug has been overcome, there remains the there are actions that could be taken in the but while many antimicrobial targets can question of how to prove, in the clinic, area of early science to help with this. be identified it is hard to find good leads i.e. that it is valuable. Clinical investigations in Second, it is not easy to undertake the identifying chemicals which work against this field are very complex. The number clinical trials needed to get an antibiotic these targets. Between 1995 and 2001, GSK of experienced clinical development teams approved – this is partly due to clinical com- ran 70 so-called ‘high throughput screens’ that any company can budget for across all plexity and partly to the regulatory regime. (in which large numbers of compounds are its therapy areas is limited. The fact that Third, because of the restrictions on the screened to come up with a lead that might the antibiotic area is also a very small area prescribing of such medicines, there is little turn into a medicine). The success rate of development means that there are even incentive to encourage companies to engage for antibiotics was only around 7 per cent fewer clinical teams able to operate in this in such research – there is little opportunity (which appears similar to the success rate for field. The industry needs to look more for them to recover the costs of the signifi- other companies). In other therapy areas, closely at how it makes the most efficient use cant levels of funding they put in to R&D the chance of ending up with a lead can be as of resources here. programmes. high as 70-80 per cent. Even if the right clinical research team It is particularly challenging to find leads is available and ready to do such studies, The science of AMR against ‘Gram-negative’ bacteria, which rep- the number of hospitals set up to carry out How difficult is the science? Compared with other areas of drug development, antibiotics DISCUSSION are roughly twice as difficult to take from the Human and animal regimes discovery of a candidate molecule through The laxer regulatory environment for the use of antibiotics in animals, both as to regulatory approval (see Figure 1). For most new drugs, starting with 10 or 15 treatments and as productivity boosters, is indefensible. Much greater effort is molecules that have got through to the pre- needed to persuade vets and farmers and the food industry to be less profligate. clinical stage, one of them will be approved Some may argue that the evidence of causal links of harm to humans is not on average for most areas. However the yet conclusive. But the test required for drugs administered to humans is that figure is closer to one in 30 for an antibiotic. they should be demonstrably safe. That test should apply also to the use of Antibiotics discovery has a higher attrition antibiotics in animals. rate than other areas.

28 FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) antimicrobial resistance

DISCOVERY PRECLINICAL CLINICAL TRIALS FDA REVIEW

PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3

Antibiotics 72 36 18 6 32 leads candidates ONE APPROVED DRUG Other areas 15 12 9 4.6 1.6 1.1

3–10 years 6–7 years

Figure 1. Drug development paths for antibiotics and other classes. antibiotic trials is limited. some sort of harmonisation. Reduction Agency (DTRA) initiatives have It is difficult to find the right investigators, Another issue concerns return on provided significant sums of co-funding to it is difficult to identify the right patients, and investment. GSK has spent in the order support companies in their discovery and it is difficult to get those trials actually done. of a billion dollars in the last nine years development of new antimicrobial drugs. As an example: to test a drug on a resist- on antibiotic drug discovery and develop- The ability to ‘piggy-back’ antimicrobial ant form of Streptococcus pneumoniae, ment. At some point, there has to be some research funding applications onto defence around 1,000 patients would have to be accounting to our shareholders for that applications is providing an incentive. signed up under the current arrangements expenditure. The EU public-private partnership – in order to end up with 39 who are infected What does the practising clinician, or the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) with the resistant strain. If a rapid and accu- indeed a member of the public, want? Both – has a number of projects running across rate diagnostic test was available it would want an antibiotic that is effective against Europe under the ‘New Drugs for Bad Bugs’ reduce that number, then costs could also these difficult bugs. But to help prevent programme. Collaborative research is tak- be dramatically reduced. Such a test would the growth of resistance, they do not want ing place on how to stop bacteria kicking change not only clinical practice, but also it widely used. Furthermore, people do not out drugs, as well as the development of the ability to make a new medicine. like taking a long course of antibiotic treat- new commercial models and the estab- Finally, on the clinical side there is the ment so if it is to be used, then it should lishment of clinical trial networks. In the regulatory process. The application of be for a more appropriate course, which USA, the President’s Council of Science and standard regulatory processes to the assess- should normally be days rather than weeks. Technology (PCAST) has prepared a report ment of an antibiotic adds a massive hurdle That causes a big problem for the developer. on AMR which includes a recommendation and a huge disincentive: hence it is very dif- One billion dollars has been spent to to study the need for incentives and new com- ficult to get any new AMR drug approved. make a drug which no-one wants to use! mercial approaches for antibacterials. The The standard approach of the regulatory The patent clock started ticking a long UK government is committed to addressing authorities is to do one thing at a time and time ago and has now expired. A generic the issue as part of its five-year strategic plan to prove that thing works. A new approach company can come along and copy it. Why and other groups such as WHO, Chatham is needed for antimicrobials. would a company invest on that basis? House and Brookings Institute are working It may be for example that a drug does Society therefore has to come up with and encouraging debate. not work well on its own, but it works very incentives to encourage companies to invest While it is true there are incentives need- well (or needs to be used) in combination in this area and to see a return on that ed at one end of the process, there are some with other drugs. The current regulatory investment. things that can be done at the other end too, system is geared against that. at the beginning. One is to move away from a Having said that, the US Food and Drug Current initiatives traditional view of what constitutes a micro- Administration (FDA) and the European There are however some interesting initia- bial target. There should be some attention Regulatory Authorities (EMA) acknowl- tives taking place. There are a number of given to other aspects of the process, includ- edge this is a problem, and they are making potential new antimicrobials in the pipe- ing post-targets: how do humans respond efforts to make things easier. line, although most of them are not new to infections and can defences be boosted classes of drug and are in the early phase as a way of treating infections? Antibodies, Harmonisation of clinical development, so many may not vaccines and bacteriophages all offer new The pharmaceutical industry is the most make it through to approval. Some new opportunities for fighting infection. regulated in the world. While the airline classes of antimicrobials are starting to There is an opportunity in the UK to industry is also heavily regulated, there enter companies’ pipelines – with many bring academics together with industry, per- is one set of rules across the globe for the of them arising from the laboratories of haps through establishing a centre of excel- airline industry. We have multiple differ- smaller companies who seek to partner lence. That would allow interested groups to ent sets of regulatory requirements at the with larger pharma companies for their stay abreast of the latest developments, to set national level for what is a global problem. development. But we do need to develop new targets and make it easier for companies So the harmonisation of the regulatory pro- more. to come in and make medicines. cess is a key priority. There are new incentives in this field, par- There are a number of practical initiatives It is a major disincentive to have diversi- ticularly in the USA. Both the Biomedical that could help us make the most of oppor- fied regulatory processes. The regulators Advanced Research and Development tunities in the UK and I know that many in understand this and want to work towards Authority (BARDA) and the Defense Threat academia share that view. ☐

FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) 29 climate change

While the reality of anthropogenic climate change is acknowledged by the large majority of scientists, it is not universally accepted. A meeting of the Foundation for Science and Technology on 16 June 2014 provided a neutral venue in which both sides could engage in debate. To act now or to wait?

ebate and disagreement human activity. Sir Mark Walport, on meeting that his principal worry was the about climate change the other hand, citing the latest evidence impact that ‘prematurely decarbonising’ continue in our society, even compiled by the IPCC, stressed that the world economy would have on the though a substantial majority greenhouse gas emissions from human poor, who spent a disproportionate Dof scientists and politicians agree with activity – and in particular carbon amount of disposable income on energy. the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate dioxide and methane – were changing All the speakers were in agreement Change (IPCC) that anthropogenic the concentration of greenhouse gases in that transparency about the data, the actions will be a major influence on the the atmosphere and leading to a warming statistical methods and the models changes to climate which are forecast. of the planet. While it is not possible to used was crucial for an informed and A special meeting of the Foundation, accurately predict the regional effects of productive debate between the different held at the request of Sir Mark Walport, that warming, most effects are likely to interested parties in this debate. the Government’s Chief Scientific be negative. In the discussion following the formal Adviser, brought together four individu­ It is, he said, vital to try to limit global presentations, the value and forecasting als, each with substantial experience in greenhouse gas emissions in order to accuracy of the available climate models the fields of science, politics and econom­ keep average global temperature rise – and the accuracy of the resulting ics but representing different aspects of to 2°C or less. For this, international forecasts – was discussed. Judging long the debate. The speakers at the debate agreement and action will be crucial. term trends from time series with large were: Sir Mark Walport; David Davies, Jim Skea noted that while more short-term variability is challenging. MP for Monmouth; Professor Jim Skea, than 190 countries have signed up to However, the observation was made that a member of Working Group III of the the UN goal of keeping temperature the models are only part of the body of IPCC and of the Committee on Climate increase below 2°C, achieving this target evidence for climate change catalogued Change; and Peter Lilley, MP for Hitchin would mean cutting global emissions by the IPCC and others. A reliance on and Harpenden and a former Cabinet (compared to 2010 levels) by 40-70 per small data sets or observations made Minister. cent before the middle of the century. over a short period is likely to confuse Opening the debate, the Foundation This would entail a change in global the picture; hence the aggregation by the Chairman, the Earl of Selborne, wel­ investment priorities away from fossil IPCC of a wealth of observations from comed the opportunity to provide a fuels towards other energy supply many different parts of the globe and neu ­tral platform for both sides to come options and efficiency targets. over as long a timespan as possible. together. He expressed the hope that the Climate change is a global problem In concluding, the speakers agreed debate would help to identify com­mon and dealing with it is a common to differ on whether Government ground between the speakers. responsibility, he reminded the meeting. should press ahead in the short term with adaptation or mitigation policies in Climate change The economic aspects response to climate change. However, While none of the participants doubted Peter Lilley focussed on the economic one young member of the audience – that climate change was happening, David consequences flowing from policy and after all it is this generation that Davies argued that natural variability in choices on climate change. Drawing on is likely to face the real impact of any the earth’s climate meant we could not his earlier experience as a development change – urged the speakers to try to be sure the current changes were due to economist working in Africa, he told the search out common ground. ☐

events

Recent dinner/discussions organised by the Foundation for Science and Technology are listed below. Summaries of these and other events – as well as the presentations of the speakers – can be found on the Foundation website at: www.foundation.org.uk

What is the right level of Sir Mark Walport FRS FMedSci, Professor Jim Skea CBE, Imperial College response to anthropogenic- Government Chief Scientific Adviser, London and Committee on Climate induced climate change? Government Office for Science Change David T C Davies, MP for Monmouth, Rt Hon Peter Lilley, MP for Hitchin and 16 June 2014 House of Commons Harpenden, House of Commons

30 FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) events

Making the most of UK/China 10 March 2014 Aberdeen Asset Management research and innovation Professor Ralph Rayner, Sector Director Professor Geoff Rodgers, Pro-Vice- partnerships Energy and Environment, BMT Group Chancellor for Research, Brunel Professor Ed Hill OBE, Executive University 11 June 2014 Director, National Oceanography Centre Professor Tony Cheetham FRS, Treasurer Professor Rick Spinrad, Chief Scientist, Digital participation: how and Vice-President, The Royal Society National Oceanic and Atmospheric can digital access be made Michael Kwok, Managing Director and Administration (NOAA), President- available to everyone? Head, Shanghai Office, Arup Elect, Marine Technology Society Professor Robin Grimes FREng, Professor Richard Clegg, Managing 31 October 2013 Chief Scientific Adviser, Foreign and Director, Lloyd’s Register Foundation Professor Alan Alexander OBE Commonwealth Office (panellist) FRSE, Deputy Chair, Royal Society The Rt Hon David Willetts MP, Minister of Edinburgh Inquiry into Digital of State for Universities and Science, Participation Department for Business, Innovation and Skills The challenge of Lorraine McMillan, Chief Executive, Sir John Boyd KCMG, Chair, Asia House East Renfrewshire Council communicating the Dr Alan Blackwell, Reader in uncertainty in risk estimates Interdisciplinary Design, Computer Responding to the rapid to decision makers Laboratory, University of Cambridge increase of Antimicrobial 5 February 2014 Resistance (AMR) in organisms Sir Mark Walport FRS FMedSci, Improving the career paths 4 June 2014 Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Government Office for Science for MSc and PhD students, and Dame Sally Davies DBE FMedSci, Chief postdocs Medical Officer for England and Chief Tom Bolt, Director. Performance Scientific Adviser, Department of Health Measurement, Lloyd’s of London 17 October 2013 Dr Jeremy Farrar OBE FMedSci, Judith Hackitt CBE FREng, Chair, Dr Steven Hill, Head of Research Policy, Director, The Wellcome Trust Health and Safety Executive Higher Education Funding Council for Dr Patrick Vallance FRCP FMedSci, Dr Michelle Harrison, CEO, England President, Pharmaceuticals R&D, GSK Government and Public Sector Practice, Harry Armstrong, PhD Student, WPP (panellist) Babraham Institute, Cambridge Dr Helen Ewles, Research Associate, Delivering the Agri-tech Department of Pathology, University of The economics of Cambridge Strategy - improving the decarbonisation of the UK quality and productivity of electricity supply – how Cyber security: how secure the UK food production and much are we prepared to pay are UK organisations from processing sectors to meet carbon reduction cyber theft of IP? 21 May 2014 targets? George Freeman, MP for Mid-Norfolk, 16 October 2013 House of Commons 27 November 2013 Chief Scientific Adviser, Centre for the Dr Peter Bonfield OBE FREng, Dr James Smith CBE, Chairman, The Protection of National Infrastructure Independent Chair, British Food Plan, Carbon Trust (CPNI) Defra and Chief Executive, BRE Group Dr David Clarke FREng, Chief Hugh Eaton OBE, National Security Lord Haskins, Former Chairman Executive, Energy Technologies Institute Director, Cisco UK Northern Foods, and House of Lords Baroness Verma, Parliamentary Under- Professor John V McCanny CBE FRS Dr Stephen Axford, Head of Agri-tech Secretary, Department for Energy and FREng, Director, Institute of Electronics Strategy (panellist) Climate Change Communications and Information Sir David King KB ScD FRS Technology, Queen’s University Belfast HonFREng, Foreign Secretary’s Special Policy choices for the Representative for Climate Change, reduction of bovine Foreign and Commonwealth Office Raising the bar - can learned (round-table discussion) tuberculosis (TB) societies and professional Ian Simm, Chief Executive, Impax Asset institutions particularly the 2 April 2014 Management (round-table discussion) Adam Quinney, Farmer and former Vice- Dr Bernie Bulkin, Director, Ludgate engineering institutions President, NFU Investments Limited (round-table do more to contribute to Professor Rosie Woodroffe, Senior discussion) economic growth? Research Fellow, Institute of Zoology, 24 September 2013 Zoological Society of London Professor Tim Broyd FREng FICE, Dr Miles Parker OBE FSB, Senior Maximising the value of the Vice-President, Institution of Civil Research Associate, Centre for Science UK strengths in research, Engineers and Policy, University of Cambridge innovation and higher Professor Jeremy Watson CBE FREng Professor Chris Gaskell CBE, Principal, FIET, Vice-President and Trustee, Royal Agricultural University education The Institution of Engineering and 13 November 2013 Technology (The IET) Sir John O’Reilly FREng, Director Patrick Kniveton FIMechE FIET, Turning knowledge into value General, Knowledge and Innovation, President, Institution of Mechanical Department for Business, Innovation Engineers – adding value to the marine and Skills Professor John Uff CBE QC FREng sector from research and Ben Ritchie, Senior Investment FICE, Barrister, Keating Chambers innovation Manager, Pan-European Equity, (panellist)

FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) 31 events

Maximising the use of public priorities for medical 6 February 2013 data - should research and research over the next Professor John Beddington CMG FRS publically acquired data be twenty-five years? FRSE HonFREng, Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Government Office made more accessible? 22 May 2013 for Science 10 July 2013 Dr Sydney Brenner CH FRS Dame Sally Davies DBE FMedSci, Professor Geoffrey Boulton OBE FRS HonFMedSci, Senior Distinguished Chief Medical Officer and FRSE, Chair, Royal Society Inquiry into Fellow, Crick-Jacobs Center, Salk Director General of Research and Science as an Open Enterprise Institute for Biological Studies Development, Department of Health Professor Sir Nigel Shadbolt FREng, Sir Paul Nurse PRS FMedSci, Sir Mark Walport FRS FMedSci, Chairman and Co-Founder, The Open President, The Royal Society and Government Chief Scientific Data Institute Director, Francis Crick Institute Adviser Designate and Director, The The Rt Hon David Willetts MP, Sir Keith Peters FRS FMedSci FRCP Wellcome Trust Minister of State for Universities and FRCPE FRCPath FLSW, Emeritus Science, Department for Business, Regius Professor of Physic, University Innovation and Skills of Cambridge Lecture (Science, Professor Sheila M Bird OBE FRSE, Dame Kay Davies DBE FRS FMedSci, Innovation and International Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Director, MRC Functional Genomics Development) and Christmas Unit, Institute for Public Health, Unit and Associate Head of Division Cambridge (panellist) of Medical Sciences, Department of Reception Physiology, Anatomy and Genetics, 5 December 2012 University of Oxford Professor Chris Whitty FMedSci Can university-business Sir John Savill FRS FMedSci FRSE FRCP FFPH, Chief Scientific collaboration be used FRCP, Chief Executive, Medical Adviser, Department for International to maximise short-term Research Council Development Rt Hon David Willetts MP, Minister Mme Geneviève Fioraso, Secretary economic growth and reduce of State for Universities and Science, of State for Higher Education and unemployment levels in Department of Business, Innovation Research, Government of France Wales? and Skills (Professor Cyrille van Effenterre from 3 July 2013 the French Embassy spoke on behalf Professor Colin Riordan FLSW, of the Minister) President and Vice-Chancellor, Cardiff The Armitt Review of the University UK long-term infrastructure The contribution of mid- Sir Leszek Borysiewicz FRS FRCP project pipeline FMedSci FLSW, Vice-Chancellor, sized companies to growth University of Cambridge 16 April 2013 of the economy Sir Terry Matthews OBE FREng, Sir John Armitt CBE FREng, Chair, The Armitt Review of the UK Long- 26 November 2012 Chairman, Wesley Clover Dame Nancy Rothwell DBE FRS Edwina Hart MBE CStJ AM, Minister Term Infrastructure Project Pipeline Professor Brian Collins CB FREng, FMedSci, President and Vice- for Economy, Science and Transport, Chancellor, University of Manchester Welsh Government Head, Department of Science, Engineering, Technology and Public Tera Allas, Director General for Policy, University College London Economics, Strategy and Better Cities of the future - Tim Yeo MP, Chair, House of Regulation, Department for Business, science, innovation and city Commons Select Committee on Energy Innovation and Skills and Climate Change Professor Luke Georghiou, management Vice-President for Research and 19 June 2013 Innovation, University of Manchester Steve Quartermain, Chief Planner, Open Access - the Finch Richard Burslem, Site Director, Department for Communities and Working Group report Wallwork Heat Treatment Ltd Local Government on expanding access to Sir David King KB ScD FRS published research findings Delivering the industrial HonFREng, Chair, Future Cities 6 March 2013 strategy - how can Catapult Dame Janet Finch DBE DL AcSS, government promote Richard Bellingham, Director, Chair, Working Group on Expanding growth? Institute for Future Cities, Strathclyde Access to Published Research Findings 14 November 2012 Business School, University of Professor Douglas Kell CBE, Sir John Parker GBE FREng, Strathclyde Chief Executive, Biotechnology and President, The Royal Academy of Sir Mark Walport FRS FMedSci, Biological Sciences Research Council Engineering Government Chief Scientific Adviser, (BBSRC) Professor Alan Hughes, Director, Government Office for Science Steven Hall, Managing Director, IOP Centre for Business Research, Judge Publishing Business School, University of Celebrating the centenary Cambridge The Rt Hon David Willetts MP, of the establishment of the Threats and opportunities - Minister of State for Universities and Medical Research Council - scientific challenges of the Science, Department for Business, What should be the research 21st Century Innovation and Skills

Presentations and audio from all FST events are available at: www.foundation.org.uk

32 FST JOURNAL >> JULY 2014 >> VOL. 21 (4) The Foundation is grateful to the following companies, departments, research bodies and charities for their support for the dinner/discussion programme.

Aggregate Industries Imperial College London Society of Maritime Industries Arts and Humanities Research Council Institute of Mathematics and its Sovcomflot (UK) Ltd Association for Science Education Applications Springer Science Aston University Institute of Physics STEMNET BAE Systems Institution of Chemical Engineers Technology Strategy Board Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Institution of Mechanical Engineers The Academy of Medical Sciences Research Council Japan Society for the Promotion of The Institution of Engineering and BP Plc Science Technology BPE Innovation JISC The Kohn Foundation British Academy Johnson Matthey plc The Lloyd’s Register Foundation British Council Keele University The Medical Schools Council British Geological Survey Lloyd’s of London The Michael John Trust Brunel University Lloyd’s Register The Nautical Institute BSI Group London School of Economics and The Royal Academy of Engineering Building Research Establishment Political Science The Royal Commission for the Exhibition Canterbury Christ Church University London School of Hygiene & Tropical of 1851 Cardiff University Medicine The Royal Society Catlin Group London South Bank University The Wellcome Trust Chartered Institute of Plumbing and Medical Research Council TWI Ltd Heating Engineering Met Office University College London City & Guilds of London Institute Monterey Bay Aquarium Research University of Aberdeen City University London Institute University of Birmingham Comino Foundation National Oceanography Centre University of Bristol Costain National Physical Laboratory University of Cambridge Cranfield University Natural Environment Research Council University of Dundee Department for Business Innovation and Natural History Museum University of East Anglia Skills NESTA University of East London Department for Environment, Food and Network Rail University of Edinburgh Rural Affairs Newcastle University University of Glasgow Department of Health Nottingham Trent University University of Hull DMC International Imaging Open University University of Kent Economic and Social Research Council Parliamentary and Scientific Committee University of Leeds Edinburgh Napier University Premmit Associates University of Leicester Energy Institute Queen Mary, University of London University of Nottingham Engineering and Physical Sciences Queen’s University Belfast University of Reading Research Council Risk Solutions University of Sheffield ERA Foundation Rolls-Royce University of Southampton Financial Services Knowledge Transfer Royal Society of Chemistry University of Ulster Network RPS Energy University of Warwick GlaxoSmithKline R&D Science and Technology Facilities Council Wiley Health and Safety Executive Smith Institute for Industrial Mathematics Willis Research Network Higher Education Funding Council for and System Engineering England Society for General Microbiology HR Wallingford Group Ltd Society of Biology The Foundation for Science and Technology 10 Carlton House Terrace London SW1Y 5AH Telephone: 020 7321 2220 Fax: 020 7321 2221 Email: [email protected] www.foundation.org.uk

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