Biomass Conversion on the Cusp of Commercialization Sebastian Søderberg, João Alberto F
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Biomass Conversion On the cusp of commercialization Sebastian Søderberg, João Alberto F. de Abreu, Vice President Biomass Executive Director Agroindustrial, Conversion, Novozymes Raízen Claus Crone Fuglsang, Vice President R&D, Novozymes Forward-Looking Statements This presentation and its related comments contain forward-looking statements, including statements about future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies and expectations. Forward-looking statements are associated with words such as, but not limited to, "believe," "anticipate," "expect," "estimate," "intend," "plan," "project," "could," "may," "might" and other words of similar meaning. Forward-looking statements are by their very nature associated with risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from expectations, both positively and negatively. The risks and uncertainties may, among other things, include unexpected developments in i) the ability to develop and market new products; ii) the demand for Novozymes’ products, market-driven price decreases, industry consolidation, and launches of competing products or disruptive technologies in Novozymes’ core areas; iii) the ability to protect and enforce the company’s intellectual property rights; iv) significant litigation or breaches of contract; v) the materialization of the company’s growth platforms, notably the opportunity for marketing biomass conversion technologies or the development of microbial solutions for broad-acre crops; vi) the political conditions, such as acceptance of enzymes produced by genetically modified organisms; vii) the global economic and capital market conditions, including, but not limited to, currency exchange rates (USD/DKK and EUR/DKK in particular, but not exclusively), interest rates and inflation; viii) significant price decreases on input and materials that compete with Novozymes’ biological solutions. The company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of future developments or new information. 2 Session outline • Progress and challenges last 18 months • Reasons to believe in biomass conversion • Innovation priorities • Raízen: Views from leading brazilian sugar cane crusher and biomass conversion pioneer 3 15 years of continuous development and one of our largest R&D investments 2001 2005 2009 2012 2013 2015 One of largest R&D Biomass conversion Launch of Cellic® The first commercial Exclusive partnership Five of seven large investments in pilot plants worldwide CTec for the first cellulosic ethanol with Brazil’s largest scale biomass Novozymes’ history testing Novozymes cellulosic ethanol plant: Crescentino – sugar-based ethanol conversion ethanol was initiated enzymes demonstration plants using Novozymes’ producer plants globally use Cellic® technology Cellic® technology Foundation Pilot stage Demo stage Initial commercial stage Optimization stage 4 Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition Progress towards commercialization since Capital Markets Day 2013 Biomass conversion industry in fall 2013 Biomass conversion industry today • Beta Renewables’ Crescentino plant is the world’s first • Six commercial plants are in operation with Novozymes and only commercially operating cellulosic ethanol plant supplying five of them. DuPont to be #7 • Three plants under construction in the US and two in LA • All process steps undergoing optimizations • Large number of publicly announced biomass conversion • 20+ solid biomass conversion projects are under projects development globally (not all publicly announced) • Expectation of a relatively fast industry commercialization • Recognition that industry commercialization will take longer • Novozymes’ Cellic® CTec3 is the leading enzyme technology (one size fits all enzyme product) • Novozymes is committed to pursue further process optimizations beyond enzymes. Our customized next generation Cellic® enzyme solutions are being launched • Novozymes heavily engaged in project development with “boots on the ground” globally 5 Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition Headwinds and longer timelines than anticipated, but several reasons lead us to believe that these will be overcome Prolonged industry ramp-up • New industries take time • Up-scaling of commercial plants takes longer than – it’s a marathon, not a sprint expected. From serving 15 plants by 2017 to an assumption of ~15 by 2020 • Many industries deliver lower Capex over time • New projects struggle to find financing, as everyone is • Novozymes as a full biotech solutions provider to bolster in waiting mode to get confirmation of the economics biomass conversion process optimization • Some projects have been cancelled or on hold • Healthy project pipeline continues to mature Macro and regulatory uncertainty • Expectation that internal combustion engines / liquid • Lower oil price casts uncertainty and makes for a fuels will play a substantial role in the future tougher environment for biofuels – particularly in the US and Asia • National blending mandates in the EU (Italy announced, more in the making) • US ethanol demand stuck in limbo due to the blend wall and unclear regulatory framework • Brazil ethanol blending mandate increase to E27 6 Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition Comparable disruptive technologies have taken ~15 years to reach commercial scale Enabling an industry is a “marathon” journey – resilience is key Comparable disruptive technologies have taken 15+ years to take off; enabling an industry is a “marathon” with multiple hurdles to be overcome Corn ethanol Solar Installed corn ethanol capacity (U.S.), 1990–2014 Global solar power cumulative installed PV capacity 2000–2012 Million gallons/year MW +4% 120,000 15,000 100,000 80,000 +57% 10,000 +29% 60,000 +9% 40,000 5,000 +31% 20,000 0 0 1990 92 94 96 98 2000 02 04 06 08 10 12 2014 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 2012 Shale gas Wind Gas production from shale gas Global cumulative installed wind capacity 1996–2013 Billion cubic feet per day MW 350,000 30 300,000 +23% 25 +38% 250,000 20 200,000 15 150,000 +27% 10 +25% 100,000 5 50,000 0 0 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 2013 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 2013 Source: US Renewable Fuels Association (annual capacities) after 1999 and SRI (from 1990); Industry reports; McKinsey analysis 7 Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition Significant learnings in first biomass conversion plants and the example of the US 1G industry suggest that Capex will reduce for the next wave of biomass conversion plants Major reasons for reduced Capex: Capex development over time Example: 1st generation corn ethanol plants in the U.S. • Optimized plant and process design including less over-engineering 500 • Bolt-on solutions use existing 400 infrastructure and utilities 3 ) / m ) 300 • Development of standard modules 1981 USD (2005 200 1985 Capex, 100 2001 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Plant production capacity 1,000 m3 / year Source: Data: LeBlanc and Prato, 1982, Gavett et al.1986, Whims, 2002, Understanding the reductions In US corn ethanol production costs 8 Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition In spite of existing challenges, we see a solid project pipeline that continues to mature across regions While several biomass conversion Publicly announced, commercial biomass conversion ethanol plants are already operating, projects under development by region (Q1/2015)* more than 20 solid biomass conversion projects are under development Project Italy globally (not all publicly announced) Project Alpha Different business models: • Co-marketing with Beta Renewables • Project development Teck Guan • Large strategic partners e.g. Raízen Punjab *Non-exhaustive 9 Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition Major improvements in Novozymes’ enzyme technology have been a key enabler of biomass conversion commercialization and will drive further plant optimization 100 80 ® Enzyme 60 Customized Cellic enzyme use costs technology: Further improvement is develop- 40 achieved through customization of ment 20 enzymes to match specific process (indexed) and feedstock 0 Years 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2015 2018 Cellic® Cellic® Cellic® Customized CTec CTec2 CTec3 Cellic® 1.0 Enzymes as a valuable tool: Sweet-spot Sweet spot Sweet-spot optimized enzyme dosing optimized optimized to get ensures the lowest unit cost of ethanol enzyme the lowest unit cost. For example, improved enzyme dosing Pretreatment Enzyme Total solids Hydrolysis Biomass to sugar cost of ethanol performance has been shown to reduce severity dosing loading time conversion the use of acid in pretreatment 10 Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition Novozymes biotech solutions continue to bolster biomass conversion process optimization and its competitiveness • Novozymes launches new family of New customized Cellic® solutions and further process optimizations continue to customized Cellic® enzymes reduce biomass conversion costs tailored to reduce enzyme cost and improve production performance Pretreatment Hydrolysis Fermentation • Ongoing optimization of all process steps will further reduce production costs Cellulosic ethanol production costs Cellic® CTec3 Customized Cellic® solutions CustomizedCustomized CellicCellic®®