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Cyclone Season 2009-2010

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Cyclone Season 2009-2010 + 12 10 + 1 0 + 10 2 + 12 0 0 + 100 02 1 1 8 1 0 0 + A 2 0 4 4 + 1 + 02 Centre des 1023 1 1 + 0 00 0 16 0 0 10 + 8 1 + 0 1 1 01 6 8 6 2 2 + 101 Cyclones Tropicaux 0 100 + 1 D 1 + 8 0 0 9924 1 + SAISONA 1 0 993 02 de La Réunion 4 1 + 2 2 0 0 1033 1 8 1 0 100 D 1 + 8 6 D A 8 1024 1 + 100 2 0 1096 d 0 0 1 24 4 10 1012 + + + + + + + 1 1 0 0 1 1 La Reunion 0 1 A 0 6 0 2 0 016 + 102 1 8 1015 988 00 100 1012 1 8 2 04 1 10 99 1 10 0 0 Tropical Cyclone 10 00 4 99 0 97 CYCLONIQUE6 00 6 1 6 99 99 2 99 2 6 97 98 Centre 6 1008 8 Sud-Ouest de l'océan Indien TRMM 15 dBZ Météo-France Météo-France Copyright Météo-France 1 D 0 A 1 + + 6 1017 1016 + A + 10 + 4 20 1024 2 0 + 1 012 1 + 1 0 + 10 2 + 12 0 Copyright+ 10 0 0 102 1 1 8 0 00 + A 2 4 4 + 1 + 2009 1023 02 1 1 + 0 00 0 16 0 0 10 + + 8 1 CYCLONE SEASON 0 1 1 012 6 8 6 + 101 2 0 D 100 + 1 1 + 8 0 0 9924 1 + A 1 0 993 4 02 1 + 2 South-West2 Indian Ocean 0 0 1033 1 8 1 0 100 D 1 6 2010 + D 8 1024 + 00 A 8 1 1d 2 0 1096 0 0 1 24 4 10 1012 + + + + + + + 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 A 0 6 0 2 016 + 1020 1 1015 988 008 100 1012 1 8 2 04 1 10 99 1 10 0 0 10 00 4 99 0 976 6 100 6 99 99 2 99 2 6 97 98 6 1Copyright008 8 D Saison cyclonique 2009-2010 Sud-Ouest de l'océan Indien Cyclone season South-West Indian Ocean Sommaire Contents Introduction .............................................................................................. Page 2 Météo-FranceIntroduction Liste et intensité maximale des perturbations Page 6 List of tropical disturbances with their maximum intensities Cartographie des trajectoires .................................................................... Page 7 Map of trajectories Caractéristiques de la saison cyclonique et données statistiques .............. Page 8 Main featuresMétéo-France of the cyclone season and statistical data Note explicative sur l'analyse individuelle des perturbations ..................... Page 11 Explanatory note on the individual analysis of disturbances Analyse chronologique des perturbations de la saison ............................... Page 12 Copyright Analysis of the disturbances of the season in chronological order Terminologie .............................................................................................Météo-FrancePage 78 Terminology Directeur de la publication : Yves GREGORIS Classification des systèmes dépressionnaires Rédaction et réalisation : dans le Sud-Ouest de l'océan Indien .......................................................... Page 79 Philippe CAROFF Classification of tropical disturbances used in the South-West Indian Ocean PAO : Jean-François BOYER CopyrightAvec la contribution des prévisionnistes cyclone du CMRS de La Réunion : Catherine BIENTZ Thierry DUPONT Sébastien LANGLADE Hubert QUETELARD © METEO FRANCE - DIRECTION INTERREGIONALE DE LA REUNION BP 4 - 97491 SAINTE-CLOTILDE Cedex - FRANCE Géraldine RAYOT CopyrightReproduction interdite - Loi n° 92-597 du 1er juillet 1992 relative au code de la propriété intellectuelle. Météo-France Météo-France Copyright Météo-FranceSud-OuestCYCLONIQUE de l'océanSAISON Indien CYCLONE SEASON Copyright South-West Indian Ocean Copyright 2009 -2010 12 10 + 1 0 + 10 2 A + 12 0 + + 100 1023 1 1 8 0 0 + 2 04 4 1 + 02 1 1 + 0 00 0 0 0 + 8 1 + D 0 1 1 01 6 8 6 2 2 + 101 992 0 100 + 1 + A 1 993 + 8 0 + 0 1033 4 1 1 D 02 0 4 1 + D 2 1024 + 2 A 0 0 1 8 d 1 1096 0 100 1 8 6 1 100 8 1012 0 2 0 0 4 4 1 02 + + + 1 + + + A + + 1 1015 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 6 0 2 0 016 102 1 8 00 100 1012 1 8 2 04 1 10 99 1 10 0 0 10 00 4 99 0 6 100 6 99 99 2 99 Introduction2 6 La saison cyclonique 2009-2010 dans le Sud-Ouest de l’océan Indien The 2009/2010 Cyclone season In the South-West Indian Ocean a saison cyclonique 2009-2010 a de tropicales s’étant transformées en un indice ENSO nettement positif). Ce nouveau été marquée par une activité cyclones tropicaux matures (5 cyclones, basculement vers une phase chaude El nettement inférieure à la normale, dont trois intenses et un autre classé très Niño, n’a donc en rien modifié la donne L malgré un nombre de phénomènes intense), on a, en effet, retrouvé un ratio pour ce qui est de l’activité cyclonique, qui s’est maintenu à un niveau légèrement normal de développement et, plus géné- qui est restée atone, tant à l’échelle supérieur à la moyenne climatologique. ralement, une répartition plus équilibrée planétaire, qu’au niveau du bassin du On peut d’ailleurs légitimement considérer des phénomènes entre les différentes Sud-Ouest de l’océan Indien. Et le que cette saison cyclonique 2009-2010 catégories d’intensité. Mais hormis ce nouveau revirement intervenu à la fin est restée dans la continuité de l’exercice distinguo d’avoir vu se développer de l’été austral 2009-2010, avec dévelop- précédent, nombre de caractéristiques davantage de systèmes matures, cette pement rapide d’une phase La Niña, n’a de la saison 2008-2009 s’étant rééditées saison 2009-2010 a présenté un compor- pas eu davantage d’effet, si ce n’est que (ou perpétuées, comme l’on voudra). Outre tement malgré tout très similaire à celui d’amplifier encore la chute de l’activité le nombre équivalentMétéo-France de dix systèmes de sa devancière, le fait marquant étant cyclonique du bassin normalement le baptisés, le nombre de jours d’activité donc la persistance de la faible activité plus productif au monde et le plus tou- perturbée (nombre de jours cumulés perturbée sur le bassin. ché par la léthargie actuelle, à savoir le avec présence, sur le Sud-Ouest de Pacifique Nord-Ouest, qui a ainsi battu l’océan Indien, d’un système dépres- Celle-ci est à replacer dans un contexte un record d’inactivité sur les 50 dernières sionnaire d’intensité au moins égale à plus général : c’est toute l’activité années (les données fiables sur ce bassin la tempête tropicale modérée), est resté cyclonique à l’échelle du globe qui datant de 1960). identique, soit 36 jours (à comparer avec est entrée dans une phase d’apathie une moyenne climatologique de 51 jours étonnante depuis deux ans. Totalement Cette saison 2009-2010 du Sud-Ouest et une médiane fixée à 48 jours). à contre-courant du message que conti- de l’océan Indien a donc vu cinq cyclo- Cette stabilité, que l’on peut en l’occur- nuent, imperturbablement, de véhiculer nes tropicaux se développer, dont rence qualifier de stagnation, de l’activité les médias depuis l’ouragan Katrina de trois cyclones tropicaux intenses et perturbée à un niveau réellement faible, 2005 etMétéo-France des contre-vérités régulièrement un cyclone tropical très intense. Ceci n’a donc pas eu pour origine un déficit assénées –sans aucune vérification– est particulièrement méritoire et remar- de cyclogénèses, mais s’explique, comme quant à un pseudo "accroissement" du nom- quable, si l’on considère la durée de vie lors de la saison précédente, par la durée bre de cyclones, c’est, bien au contraire, à moyenne très réduite de l’ensemble des de vie réduite que les phénomènes un effondrement de l’activité perturbée perturbations de la saison. Pour pouvoir ont, en moyenne, passée à une intensité auquel on a littéralement assisté depuis atteindre de telles intensités dans un significative. Inchangée par rapport à 4 ans, chute ramenant l’activité cyclonique laps de temps aussi contraint et limité, 2008-2009, cette durée de vie moyenne mondiale à un niveau que l’on n’avait cela n’a pu être rendu possible que par (4,3 jours passés au stade de dépres- pas connu depuis une trentaine d’année l’occurrence de cycles de vie accélérés, sion tropicale ou plus – i.e. tempête et le creux majeur d’inactivité précédent i.e. associés à des taux d’intensification Copyrightou cyclone) est demeurée proche des de la fin des années 1970. (ou/et d’affaiblissement) très rapides. plus bas niveaux historiques, étant Simple cycle naturel ou signe d’unMétéo-France Et de fait, un des traits marquants de de nouveau tirée vers le bas par des changement plus profond et durable, cette saison aura été la récurrence du météores à l’existence rendue parti- les raisons de cette faiblesse actuelle développement explosif ou à des taux culièrement éphémère du fait d’un atter- de l’activité cyclonique mondiale font d’intensification anormalement rapides rissage prématuré sur Madagascar, alors présentement défaut. En tout cas, de plusieurs phénomènes : cela aura, en qu’ils venaient tout juste de commencer difficile a priori d’aller incriminer un des particulier, été le cas du cyclone CLEO, de s’intensifier (tempêtes tropicales FAMI facteurs potentiels de modulation du et à un degré légèrement moindre des et HUBERT). climat auxquels on pense habituellement cyclones EDZANI et ANJA. La seule différence notable par rapport en premier, à savoir l’oscillation australe. La saison aurait pu s’achever de manière à 2008-2009, est venue du nombre de L’été austral 2009-2010 a été placé sous extrêmement précoce, dès la fin mars, Copyrightjours cycloniques, qui a doublé par rap- le signe d’un épisode El Niño modéré sans l’occurrence d’un système port à la saison précédente, remontant dans le Pacifique Sud, alors que la saison extrêmement tardif, presque hors à 14 jours, ce qui reste malgré tout en chaude précédente avait été associée à saison, la dépression subtropicale deçà de la normale (qui est de 19 jours un pseudo-épisode La Niña ("pseudo", JOEL, développée sur le Sud du Canal avec présence d’un cyclone tropical sur car tous les critères d’un épisode La Niña de Mozambique, à proximité des côtes le bassin).
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