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A Synopsis of Known and Potential Diseases and Parasites Associated with Climate Change Forest Research Information Paper No Forest Research Information Paper No. 154 A Synopsis of Known and Potential Diseases and Parasites Associated with Climate Change Forest Research Information Paper No. 154 A Synopsis of Known and Potential Diseases and Parasites Associated With Climate Change Compiled by Sylvia Greifenhagen Thomas L. Noland 2003 Ontario Forest Research Institute Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources 1235 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 2E5 Canada (705)946-2981 Fax: (705)946-2030 Canadian Cataloguing in Publication Data Main entry under title: A synopsis of known and potential diseases and parasites associated with climate change (Forest research information paper, ISSN 0319-9118; no. 154) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-7794-4727-1 1. Climatic changes—Ontario. 2. Climatic changes—Health aspects—Ontario. 3. Plant diseases—Ontario. 4. Animals—Diseases—Ontario. 5. Medical climatology—Ontario. 6. Parasites. 7. Plant parasites—Ontario. I. Greifenhagen, Sylvia. II. Noland, T.L. III. Ontario Forest Research Institute. IV. Series S600.7.C54 S96 2003 632'.1 C2003-964007-8 © 2003, Queen's Printer for Ontario Printed in Ontario, Canada Single copies of this publication are available from: Ontario Forest Research Institute Ministry of Natural Resources 1235 Queen Street East Sault Ste. Marie, ON Canada P6A 2E5 (705)946-2981 Fax:(705)946-2030 [email protected] Cette publication scientifique n'est disponible qu'en anglais. This paper contains recycled materials. Abstract Current climate change models for Ontario predict that mean annual temperature will increase by up to 3°C over the next century. Temperatures are expected to increase more in winter than in summer, with an increase in frost-free days, and to increase more in northern than southern latitudes. Minimum temperatures should increase more than maximum temperatures. Precipitation, although somewhat unpredictable, is expected to increase in Ontario, but increased evaporation and transpiration due to warmer temperatures will likely result in drier conditions, particularly during the summer growing seasons. If Ontario’s climate changes as predicted, many human, animal and plant diseases that are affected by climate will also change in range, intensity, and/or a variety of other ways, in turn affecting the health and well-being of people, animals and plants in Ontario. This report identifies which diseases are likely to be affected by climate and which human, animal, and plant groups are most vulnerable to them. It also provides recommendations for changing disease management strategies and practices to mitigate the effects of climate change. Because we cannot predict precisely how climate change will affect disease and because the predicted changes may occur at a relatively fast pace, we must improve our knowledge base and our response capability at local, regional and national levels to maintain current levels of health. Doing so will enable us to face the coming challenges, adapt to them, learn from them, and protect Ontario’s communities and ecosystems. Bibliographic reference for entire report: Greifenhagen, S. and T.L. Noland (comps.). 2003. A synopsis of known and potential diseases and parasites associated with climate change. Ont. Min. Nat. Resour., Ont. For. Res. Inst., Sault Ste. Marie, ON. For. Res. Info. Pap. No. 154. 200 pages. Bibliographic references for individual sections of report: Charron, D., D. Waltner-Toews, A. Maarouf and M. Stalker. 2003. A synopsis of known and potential diseases and parasites of humans and animals associated with climate change. In Greifenhagen, S. and T.L. Noland (comps.). A synopsis of known and potential diseases and parasites associated with climate change. Ont. Min. Nat. Resour., Ont. For. Res. Inst., Sault Ste. Marie, ON. For. Res. Info. Pap. No. 154. 200 p. Boland, G.J., V. Higgins, A. Hopkin, A. Nasuth and M.S. Melzer. 2003. Climate change and plant disease in Ontario. In Greifenhagen, S. and T.L. Noland (comps.). A synopsis of known and potential diseases and parasites associated with climate change. Ont. Min. Nat. Resour., Ont. For. Res. Inst., Sault Ste. Marie, ON. For. Res. Info. Pap. No. 154. 200 p. i Acknowledgements Funding for this project (CC-150) was provided to the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR) through the Ontario Government Climate Change Fund. We would like to thank OMNR’s Abigail Obenchain for editing the report and Trudy Vaittinen for layout and cover design. Thanks also to the 4 anonymous reviewers for their comments and to OMNR’s Paul Gray for initiating this project. Structure of This Report The main body of the report is prefaced by a popular summary that provides a brief overview of the effects of climate change on disease in Ontario. The main body of this report is divided into 2 sections, titled A Synopsis of Known and Potential Diseases and Parasites of Humans and Animals Associated With Climate Change in Ontario and Climate Change and Plant Disease in Ontario. Each section has its own table of contents and page numbering system. ii Popular summary No. 154 Popular Summary Because climate affects so many different elements and processes in the ecology of diseases, their response to specific climate change scenarios is difficult to predict. Introduction However, we can start by examining what we already Diseases, be they of humans, animals, or plants, play understand about the relationships between climate and important roles in how all life on Earth evolves and disease. In this way we can begin identifying those develops. They have influenced the social and economic diseases that climate change is most likely to affect. By structure and indeed the very existence of past and present combining what we understand about climate and disease civilizations. Many diseases, and the organisms that cause with output from climate change model projections, a them, are integral components of intricate natural range of possible future disease issues become apparent. ecosystems, involved in such varied processes as nutrient Although such projected impacts of future climate on cycling in forests and the succession of different plant disease patterns are primarily informed conjecture, they are species on a landscape. The results of climate change (for the best that is available to us now and are essential to example, an increase in temperature) may affect diseases in planning how to adapt to climate change. many ways; however, the complexity of the links between diseases and the systems in which they exist makes it Disease – What Is It? difficult to predict these changes. Climate (only one of the A disease is a condition that impairs the proper many determinants of health) interacts in complex and function of any living thing or organism. A disease can dynamic ways with the biophysical and social environment affect an entire organism or just one part. Diseases can be in shaping individual and population health. caused by many different things, including other living organisms (bacteria, fungi, and viruses) and non-living Climate Change causes (excessive heat, cold, drought). Some diseases are Ontario’s climate is undergoing significant change, as caused by a combination of both living and non-living climate patterns worldwide react to the accumulation of factors. greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Climate change models predict the extent of these changes into the future. The relationships between the disease-causing agents, For Ontario, overall predictions include: the organism affected by the disease (termed a host), and the environments in which they function are often depicted · Warmer temperatures. Over the next 100 years, the average as a “disease triangle” (Figure 1). For each disease, all 3 annual temperature is expected to increase by 3°C. This points of the triangle must exist together in space and increase will affect average winter temperature more time for disease to occur. Often, multiple hosts, agents, than summer temperature. Although these changes and environments interact. For example, Lyme disease seem slight, their effects are greatly magnified at extreme requires multiple hosts, vectors, and diverse environments; values. In general, weather will become more variable its spread into northern Ontario is limited by the under climate change. environmental requirements of the virus-carrying ticks. · Changes in rain- and snowfall. Over much of Ontario, Without the right environment “point” on the triangle, precipitation is expected to increase, although regional Lyme disease cannot occur. Some of the most severe and changes are difficult to predict. Increased evaporation unpredictable consequences of climate change with respect and transpiration (i.e., water loss from living things) to disease would occur if populations of disease agents because of warmer temperatures may actually lead to and hosts, which were formerly geographically separated drier conditions, especially during the summer. due to climate constraints, converged. · Increased frequency of extreme weather events. Drought, rain, Disease can also be measured at the group or hail, and ice and wind storms are predicted to increase population level: In a herd of cattle with tuberculosis, not in frequency. For example, an event that now has a all cows may have the disease. Disease can also be probability of occurring every 30 years may begin to measured at community and ecosystem levels: A healthy occur every 4 or 5 years. rural community, a diseased forest, a dead lake. Adapting v Forest Research Information Paper
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