WIGOS-Vision-2040 Wksp, Oct 2016

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION

Workshop on the Vision for WIGOS in 2040

Geneva, Switzerland, 18-20 October 2016

FINAL REPORT


DISCLAIMER

Regulation 42

Recommendations of working groups shall have no status within the Organization until they have been approved by the responsible constituent body. In the case of joint working groups the recommendations must be concurred with by the presidents of the constituent bodies concerned before being submitted to the designated constituent body.

Regulation 43

In the case of a recommendation made by a working group between sessions of the responsible constituent body, either in a session of a working group or by correspondence, the president of the body may, as an exceptional measure, approve the recommendation on behalf of the constituent body when the matter is, in his opinion, urgent, and does not appear to imply new obligations for Members. He may then submit this recommendation for adoption by the Executive Council or to the President of the Organization for action in accordance with Regulation 9(5).

© World Meteorological Organization, 2016

The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication (articles) in part or in whole should be addressed to:

Chairperson, Publications Board

World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 (0)22 730 84 03

P.O. Box No. 2300 Fax: +41 (0)22 730 80 40

CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail:

NOTE:

The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

Opinions expressed in WMO publications are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised.

This document (or report) is not an official publication of WMO and has not been subjected to its standard editorial procedures. The views expressed herein do not necessarily have the endorsement of the Organization.

______

CONTENTS

CONTENTS
AGENDA
Executive Summary
General Summary
List of Participants (Appendix I)
Final Programme (Appendix II)
Roadmap (Appendix III)

______

AGENDA

Agenda

OPENING OF THE WORKSHOP

Session 1: Setting the Scene

Session 2: From GOS to WIGOS; broadening the Vision

Session 3: Technical, political and financial challenges, issues and opportunities

Session 4: Role of WMO and other international partners

Session 5: Toward an integrated “Vision for WIGOS in 2040”

CLOSURE OF THE WORKSHOP

______

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive Summary

The Workshop on the Vision for WIGOS in 2040, Surface-based perspective was held at the WMO Secretariat in Geneva, Switzerland, from 18 to 20 October 2016. The workshop was co-chaired by Dr S. Barrell and Prof Dr B. Calpini, Co-chairs/ICG-WIGOS). The co-chairs welcomed the participants to the workshop.

The summary (wrap-up) of the presentations and the follow-up discussions is summarized in Session 5; the Roadmap (Action Plan) is listed in the Appendix III.

______

GENERAL SUMMARY, p. 9

General summary

OPENING OF THE WORKSHOP

The Workshop on the Vision for WIGOS in 2040, Surface-based perspective, was held at the WMO Secretariat in Geneva, Switzerland, from 18 to 20 October 2016. The workshop was co-chaired by Dr S. Barrell and Prof Dr B. Calpini, co-chairs/ICG-WIGOS, who welcomed the participants to the workshop.

On behalf of the Secretary-General of WMO, Mr P. Shi, Director in charge of the Observing and Information Systems (OBS) Department, opened the workshop and welcomed the participants to Geneva. He recalled that EC-66 had requested CBS to take the lead in developing a Vision for WIGOS in 2040, which will include a “Vision for the WIGOS component observing systems in 2040” for its submission to Cg-18 in 2019.

He mentioned that an important input to the meeting, a preliminary draft “Vision for the WIGOS Surface-Based Observing Components in 2040" developed at the IPET-OSDE Workshop in Offenbach, Germany, 23-25 August 2016, would be reviewed against the broader development trends to be discussed at the workshop. Based on it, the Workshop will provide its guidance on the future work toward integrating this draft and the draft “Vision for WIGOS/Surface in 2040” into one coherent “Vision for WIGOS in 2040”.

SESSION 1: SETTING THE SCENE

Why a WMO “Vision for WIGOS in 2040”?; Objectives of the workshops (S. Barrell and B. Calpini, Workshop Co-chairs)

The “Vision” will be used as reference for WMO Members and other service providers. It is meant to inform decisions made by satellite agencies, for most of whom 2025 is a too short horizon; therefore it should reflect the expected status in 2040 - to define accordingly satellites priorities; on the other hand, 2040 is arguably too far away for the surface-based components, and for this part of the vision the trends should be considered.

The “Vision” will set a framework for future systems deployment, development and integration; it may impact on the future WMO structure.

Prior to this Workshop, two draft vision documents had been prepared: the space-based vision, which is more advanced and the surface-based vision in early stages. However, the goal is to develop one coherent WIGOS Vision document, representing an integrated approach to the future system planning and support for service delivery.

The WMO Rolling Review of Requirements and the role of the Vision (J. Dibbern)

The RRR process was presented in the context of the Vision for WIGOS; the importance of such a long-term Vision was underlined.

During the discussion, the need for truly visionary thinking involving and from a broad community (not only NMHS) perspective was stressed. Questions, such as “How will WMO look like in 2040”?; “What will be the role and importance of “third party” observations”?; “How will WMO relate with partners”? and issues regarding data-sharing, partnerships, etc. should be addressed in the Vision.

It was noted that the Vision is very useful guidance for the Members, and especially for the NMHSs, to use in their planning of observing system development. In order for the Vision to best serve this purpose, it must treat WIGOS in a holistic manner rather than considering the space and surface components separately.

Draft Vision for WIGOS/Space in 2040 (S. Bojinski, T. Kurino)

A presentation on the background and the main drivers of the new space vision was delivered. It was mentioned that the Vision should not be revolutionary, but should be an evolution of the current Vision for the GOS in 2025.

In the follow-up discussion, it was noted that an integrated vision for how the space and surface observing components should evolve together was missing from the current draft. This integration aspect is also missing in the case of OSCAR, where the Space and Surface components have evolved separately into two distinct system components; therefore some level of integration of the two, including in order to support gap analysis, was recognized by the Workshop.

Draft Vision for WIGOS/Surface in 2040 (F. Grooters, J. Eyre)

The workshop was briefed on the outcome of a CBS-led drafting workshop held in Offenbach in August 2017. This had led to the development of a Draft Vision for WIGOS/Surface 2040.

It was noted that an important purpose of the Vision is to provide guidance to Members on the development of their national observing systems. The Vision should clearly articulate the applications areas that it covers and the related services that are supported; this is necessary in order to identify which types of observations are needed to address requirements for services.

Keynote: Requirements for meteorology and hydrology in 2040; Weather prediction, climate change, megacities, air pollution, population growth, food security, SDGs; (S. Barrell and L. P. Riishojgaard)

A possible global context for WIGOS in 2040 was cast in terms of nine so-called global megatrends that may help define some of the main challenges of the global society. While they are highly interrelated, these megatrends can broadly be grouped into three sets, reflecting changes in the status and expectations of individuals, changes in the global economy and changes in the physical environment, respectively.

Based on this view of the future, some implications for NMHSs could be identified. Among the key factors that would drive the NMHS observing programs in 2040 are: a) climate change; b) increased needs for specialized meteorological services in highly urbanized areas; and c) influence of the private sector.

One may reasonably expect that the demand for meteorological products and services will continue to grow, and that it will therefore be much higher in 2040 than it is now. On the other hand, it is considered unlikely that NMHSs will be able to maintain a near-monopoly on the provision of meteorological observations, products and services; in contrast, a stronger role for the private sector is likely. It will be necessary to sort out issues regarding ownership and data exchange for observational data in particular.

If the current WMO paradigm of the provision of meteorological services as a “public good” is to be maintained, a continued strong government role will be needed in areas such as responsibility for watches and warnings, official records on forensic weather, climate monitoring, and policy-level guidance on climate change mitigation and adaptation. Therefore, a clear vision from WMO on these issues is urgently needed.

Keynote: The Future of Environmental Measurements (B. Calpini)

A CIMO vision for environmental measurements to support continued improvement in the quality of meteorological products and services was presented. The key elements of this vision are outlined below:

·  Members will strive to obtain fit-for-purpose environmental measurements through appropriate standards and observing technologies.

·  WMO will be used as the reference source of information on suitability of measurements for specific environmental intelligence (applications). Both users and data providers will understand the importance of the measurement process in the environmental information chain.

·  Users and providers are committed to traceability of ECV measurements.

·  The quality and utility of emerging measurements is documented in the CIMO Guide and reference material.

Keynote: New technology trends: Systems of opportunity, miniaturization and commoditization, mass-deployment, third party information and data partnerships (J. Pica)

Among the trends noted in the presentation from the US National Weather Service were:

·  Growing recognition of sensitivity of business performance to weather

·  Increased cost of disaster damage, estimated to impact 1/3 of U.S. GDP

·  Significant unmet user needs for improved weather predictions (accuracy and lead times) and decision support, e.g.:

o  Hyperlocal nowcasts

o  Greater lead time for mesocale forecasts

o  Seasonal and longer timescale forecasts

Building “weather ready” nations will change the way we work and change the nature of our products. It will require

·  Becoming more oriented toward Earth System Sciences (atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere)

·  Collaborating with social science - to ensure message delivered = message received for desired outcomes (e.g. How to describe and display “storm surge?”)

·  Understanding decision makers and their “shifting risk preferences” before/during/after an event

·  Connecting observations/forecasts/warnings to “Key Decision Points” in all service areas

Solutions may involve

·  Internet of Things, robotics and automation are addressing current gaps in weather data collection, potentially at lower cost.

·  Supercomputing, big data and machine learning are enabling unprecedented data assimilation to weather forecasts and models.

·  Analytics and big data are combining vast amounts of weather, business and operational data for better decision-making.

·  Cloud, mobile computing, improved visualization, smart devices, and more focus on ‘user experience’ are making weather data easier to access and digest, often at lower cost.

·  Miniaturization trends have the potential to lower observation costs

SESSION 2: FROM GOS TO WIGOS; BROADENING THE VISION

The Global Observing System and the evolving requirements for Numerical Weather Prediction and Reanalysis (E. Källén)

ECMWF’s primary role is to develop a capability for medium-range weather forecasting and to provide such weather forecasts to the Member and Co-operating States. ECMWF is complementary to the National Meteorological Services and works with them in research, numerical weather predictions, supercomputing and training. ECMWF strategic 2016-2025 goals are as follows: i) High impact weather two weeks ahead; ii) Regime transitions four weeks ahead; iii) Global scale anomalies one year ahead; iv) Earth System Observations; Ocean-atmosphere coupled assimilation showing potential; v) Microwave radiances primary observation source; and vi) Better use of conventional observations.

The target by 2025 is a seamless approach, aiming towards predictions of large scale patterns and regime transitions up to four weeks ahead and global-scale anomalies up to a year ahead.

The Global Atmosphere Watch in WIGOS (J. Klausen)

The GAW programme and its implementation plan (2016-2023) were presented briefly. GAW is a research programme that involves many elements from high quality observations to development and delivery of the new products and services. The portfolio of the products and services will be developed by a new Scientific Advisory Group on Applications.

The vision for the next decade of GAW is to grow an international network of high-quality atmospheric observations across the local to global scale to drive high quality and impact science while co-producing a new generation of research enabled products and services.

WMO Hydrological Observing System in WIGOS (S. Pecora)

A WMO Hydrological Observing System (WHOS) was briefly presented as a way to provide a hydrological contribution to the WIGOS vision of “an integrated, comprehensive, and coordinated system which is comprised of the present WMO global observing systems.” WHOS is conceived as a portal to facilitate access to already available on-line real-time and historical data, drawing from the water information systems of those countries around the world that are making their data freely and openly available.