Table 1: Selected Evidence of Risk in Support of the United States Reasons for Concern

Reasons for Concern” (about Climate Change) in the United States

Electronic Supplemental Material

December 11, 2009

Gary Yohe

Woodhouse/Sysco Professor of Economics

238 Church Street

WesleyanUniversity

Middletown, CT 06459 USA

Phone: 860-685-3658

Mobile: 860-803-8670

E-mail:

Table 1: Selected Evidence of Risk in Support of the United States “Reasons for Concern”. Selected evidence is drawn from existing literature, but it is not intended to be comprehensive. Numbers listed after the colons in the NSTC and CCSP references are page numbers; numbers listed after the colons in the USGCRP references are page numbers in the “Highlights” section of that document.

Panel A:
Risk of Extreme Weather Events / Drought events are already a frequent occurrence, especially in the western United States.
A tendency for drying in mid-continental areas during the summer due to higher temperatures is projected. Extreme drought increases from 1% of present-day global land area to 30% by the end of the century along A2 (though US is shown drying – Burke, et al. (2006)- pg 1122); for U.S. in the mid-century timeframe, significant increases in southwestern, far-western, and mid-continent regions with decreases in the northeast.
In the last three decades, the wildfire season in the western United States has lengthened and burn durations have increased. Climate change has very likely increased the size and number of insect outbreaks and tree mortality that help to fuel wildfires in the interior West, the Southwest, and Alaska. These trends are very likely to continue.
Precipitation is likely to be less frequent but more intense across North America, and precipitation extremes are very likely to increase; New York City is an example.
Insects and pathogens affect more area annually than any other disturbance event. Outbreaks are estimated to result in $1.5 billion annually in losses to U.S. forest ecosystems. For example, two mountain pine beetle outbreaks affected more than 10 million hectares (Mha) of forest in British Columbia and another 267,000 ha in Colorado. More than 1.5 Mha of forest was attacked by spruce beetle in southern Alaska and western Canada.. Greater than 1.2 Mha of pinyon pine mortality occurred because of extreme drought, coupled with an ips beetle outbreak in the Southwest.
Increase in the frequency of coastal storm flooding anomalies mid-century and accelerating with sea level rise; calibrated projections for northeast coastal urban areas.
Annuitized value of the discounted value of damages from hurricanes in the United States along median climate futures range from $2bn to nearly $10bn per year, / NSTC (2008:127) USGCRP (2009:12);
Field et al. (2007)
NSTC (2008:94); USGCRP (2009:12); Meehl et al. (2007); Burke et al. (2006); Strzepek, et al. (2009)
NSTC (2008:141 & Sect. V.1.c); USGCRP (2009:12); Field et al. (2007)
NSTC (2008:165); USGCRP (2009:14);
Field et al. (2007); NPCC (2009)
NSTC (2008:142); USGCRP (2009:12); Taylor et al. (2006); Ryan et al. (2008); Berg et al. (2006); Breshears et al. (2005)
Kirshen et al. (2008); NPCC (2009); USGCRP (2009:15)
Mendelsohn, et al. (2009)
Panel B:
Risk to Unique and Threatened Systems / In Alaska, indigenous communities, particularly on coastal or river boundaries, face economic and cultural impacts driven by changes in species ranges, reduced weather predictability, flooding events, and thawing ground. Public infrastructure at risk from climate change by 2080 is estimated in the tens of billions of current dollars.
Observed changes in snowmelt patterns across the western United States; the timing of run-off there is essential for efficient water management infrasture.
Warming in the western United States has created longer periods of activity for insects and proliferation of some species, such as the mountain pine beetle. Drought stress resulting from decreased precipitation and/or warming temperatures are expected to sustain an expansion of suitable range for mountain pine beetle and southern pine beetle and the likelihood of spruce beetle outbreak.
Climate change (very high confidence) and ocean acidification (medium confidence) will impair a wide range of marine organisms. Sea surface temperature increases of 1 to 3 °C are projected to result in more frequent bleaching events and widespread mortality for coral. / NSTC (2008:13 & Sect. V.5; ACIA (2004); Larsen et al. (2007); Anisimov et al. (2007); USGCRP (2009:12)
Stewart et al. (2005); USGCRP (2009:12)
Logan et al. (2003); Carroll et al. (2004); Hansen et al. (2001); Logan and Powell (2001); Hansen and Bentz (2003); Easterling et al.(2007); Breshears et al. (2005)
Fischlin et al. (2007); Schneider et al. (2007); Nicholls et al. (2007); USGCRP (2009:12 & 13)
Panel C:
Distribution of Impacts / Urban centers that were once assumed to have a high adaptive capacity are vulnerable to extreme events such as hurricanes (e.g., the New Orleans experience with Hurricane Katrina). The vulnerabilities of some major urban centers are exacerbated by their location on flood plains. Extreme weather events can therefore threaten energy and other infrastructures. Increased frequency and severity of heat waves is expected, leading to more illness and death, particularly among the young, elderly, frail, and poor. In many cases, the urban heat island effect combined with local pollution exposures may increase heat-related mortality.
Consideration of both physical vulnerability and adaptive capacity determined by such factors as economic, demographic, and civic participation identify concentrations of highly vulnerable counties along the east and west coasts and Great Lakes, and medium vulnerability inland in the southeast, southwest, and northeast.
Offshore energy production (Gulf of Mexico particularly) is particularly susceptible to extreme weather events.
Increases in extreme weather (e.g., storms, flooding) and accompanying events (e.g., wildfire resulting from prolonged drought) may lead to increases in deaths, injuries, infectious diseases, interruptions of medical care for chronic disease treatment, and stress-related disorders and other adverse effects associated with social disruption and migration. / NSTC (2008: SectionsV.5.b and V.5.d); Wilbanks et al. (2008); Hartwig (2006); Hunter (2006); McCarthy et al. (2006); NPCC (2009)
CCSP (2008:123); Zabran, et al. (2008)
Bull et al. (2007)
NSTC (2008: Sect. V.5.d) USGCRP (2009: 14); NPCC (2009)

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