Tomkinson, Joanne Kathryn (2019) Late Development in the age of neoliberalism: The political economy of state‐ led development in Ethiopia and Vietnam. PhD thesis. SOAS University of London. http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/32250 Copyright © and Moral Rights for this thesis are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners. A copy can be downloaded for personal non‐commercial research or study, without prior permission or charge. This thesis cannot be reproduced or quoted extensively from without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder/s. The content must not be changed in any way or sold commercially in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. When referring to this thesis, full bibliographic details including the author, title, awarding institution and date of the thesis must be given e.g. AUTHOR (year of submission) "Full thesis title", name of the School or Department, PhD Thesis, pagination. Late development in the age of neoliberalism: The political economy of state-led development in Ethiopia and Vietnam Joanne Kathryn Tomkinson Thesis submitted for the degree of PhD 2019 Department of Development Studies SOAS University of London Abstract This thesis considers the challenges of late development in the age of neoliberalism and the impact of global economic and political forces on catch-up efforts in Ethiopia and Vietnam. It identifies two dominant interpretations of this relationship, which map onto the divide between the mainstream and heterodox development literatures. It suggests that for all their differences, both approaches adopt too deterministic a reading of the relationship between national development and global conditions, and in-so-doing misdiagnose obstacles to late development. Instead the thesis advances that the impacts of global conditions on late development prospects are the context-specific outcome of interactions between a nation’s development strategy and shifts in global capitalism. This suggests that historically informed political economy analysis is needed to examine prospects for the emergence of forms of developmentalism in the current age. To explore such possibilities, the thesis examines the development trajectories of Ethiopia and Vietnam, two rapidly growing developing economies with state-led and manufacturing- oriented development strategies. These two late developers have sought to power structural transformation by combining state ownership over the commanding heights of the economy with a strong emphasis on public investment, followed by the embrace of foreign capital to facilitate participation in global value chains. This represents an attempt to selectively appropriate elements of the global order to serve the domestic political and economic ends of their respective ruling parties. Their experiences provide a forceful reminder that forms of developmentalism endure under neoliberalism and expose the variegated nature of late development constraints (and opportunities). 2 Acknowledgements The production of this thesis was only possible thanks to the support, encouragement and intellectual input provided by my supervisor, Alfredo Saad Filho, without whom it is unlikely I would ever have begun the PhD, and may certainly not have finished it. My work has been deeply enriched by his passion, curiosity and engagement, and his generous approach to supporting the work of others has been a true inspiration. His efforts to build a community of scholars at SOAS means I feel I will always have a place here to belong, develop and grow. My second and third supervisors, Elisa Van Waeyenberge and Tim Pringle, were also a source of great input, advice and encouragement along the way, and their work has also had a deep impact on the development of my own. The research was also made possible via funding from the Economic Social Science Research Council (ESRC). During fieldwork in Ethiopia and Vietnam I greatly benefited from the support of Essayas, Joyce, Abraham, anh Giang, and Nga. The generosity of the Institute of World Economics and Politics at the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences in hosting my research was of immeasurable benefit, and I would like to sincerely thank Prof. Dr. Chu Duc Dung for welcoming and supporting me in Hanoi. Christine Ngo also very kindly helped me with my fieldwork in Vietnam, and deserves many thanks for that. In Ethiopia, Joyce Engoke not only provided me with friendship, but also a home, for which I will be always extremely grateful. In London, my work has also benefited greatly from numerous thoughtful discussions with past and present members of Alfredo’s informal research student group, including Sila, Pedro, Bruno, Kira, Jai and Francesco. I have also benefitted from more solidarity and support than I can ever repay from a host of talented and inspirational SOAS women, including (but by no means limited to) Nithya, Zoe, Feyzi, Bilge, Paniz, Ayse, Ezgi, Mehroosh, Kathryn, Serena, Lorena, and Maya. All of my friends in 301 have helped me during many ups and downs throughout the PhD process. One of the great joys throughout has been to find such brilliance, matched with such warmth. The curiosity, commitment and passion of my wonderful SOAS students helped to nurture my own. I also owe huge thanks to Julia, Daniel, Kuukwa and Ib for providing me with a welcoming light at the end of the tunnel. 3 I also owe a large debt to everyone special to me who endured my many absences and considerable stress. I cannot thank my family and friends enough, particularly my wonderful mum, Andy, Richard, Hannah, Judy, Steve, Bridget, Clare, Cath, Catherine, Jen, Frances, Becky, Moizza, Simon, Nic and Amy for believing that I could do this, and supporting me when I needed it most. I could not have done this without all your love, care and nourishment. A special thank you to Richard, Hannah, Roger and Moizza for their careful and patient proof-reading. I would like to dedicate the thesis to my father, and to Nana, who may not have been here to see me do this, but were with me every step of the way. 4 Table of contents Declaration .................................................................................................................. 1 Abstract ....................................................................................................................... 2 Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................... 3 Figures......................................................................................................................... 8 Tables .......................................................................................................................... 9 Note on names, language and dates .......................................................................... 11 Abbreviations ............................................................................................................ 12 Political map of Ethiopia .......................................................................................... 15 Political map of Vietnam .......................................................................................... 16 Chapter 1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 17 1.1 Overview ............................................................................................................. 17 1.2 Comparative analysis, case selection and methods ............................................. 21 1.3 Contributions and argument ................................................................................ 26 1.4 Thesis structure ................................................................................................... 28 Chapter 2 Global conditions and national development ............................................... 29 2.1 Mainstream theory: domestic development constraints ...................................... 30 2.1.1 Post-war development consensus ................................................................. 30 2.1.2 Neoliberal development agenda ................................................................... 33 2.2 Heterodox theory: global constraints to development ........................................ 38 2.2.1 Post-war heterodoxy: from structuralism to dependency theory ................. 38 2.2.2 Heterodox theory under neoliberalism: from developmental state to ‘policy space’ ..................................................................................................................... 43 2.3 Challenges of the existing approaches ................................................................ 48 2.4 Developmentalism in the age of neoliberalism ................................................... 52 2.4.1 Actually existing developmentalism .............................................................. 52 2.4.2 International Financial Institutions .............................................................. 57 2.4.3 Global trade and investment regime ............................................................ 59 2.4.4 Global value chains (GVCs) ......................................................................... 61 2.4.5 Financialisation ............................................................................................ 64 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 66 Chapter 3 Ethiopia 1991-2001: The emergence of defensive