University of Bath PHD Carbon and ecological footprints for the 21st century Cranston, Gemma Award date: 2010 Awarding institution: University of Bath Link to publication Alternative formats If you require this document in an alternative format, please contact: [email protected] General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal ? Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. Download date: 10. Oct. 2021 CARBON AND ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINTS FOR THE 21ST CENTURY Evaluating the significance of North-South affluence and population growth Gemma Rose Cranston A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Bath Department of Mechanical Engineering August 2010 COPYRIGHT Attention is drawn to the fact that copyright of this thesis rests with its author. A copy of this thesis has been supplied on condition that anyone who consults it is understood to recognise that its copyright rests with the author and they must not copy it or use material from it except as permitted by law or with the consent of the author. This thesis may be made available for consultation within the University Library and may be photocopied or lent to other libraries for the purposes of consultation. Signed …………………………………………………………………………………………… i SUMMARY Environmental and carbon footprints have recently come to the fore of the media’s, governmental and general public’s attention. They offer an excellent indication of humanity’s demands upon Nature and allow evaluation of ecological deficit by contrasting supply and demand. The ecological debt many nations find themselves in is unsustainable, globally inequitable and adds to the growing effects of climate change. These footprints need to be further investigated, looking at historic and future trends in order to better understand, not only the global overuse of natural capital, but also the imbalance between nation states of the world. The value and limitations of the footprint must be recognised; the footprint alone cannot represent the full anthropogenic impacts upon the Earth. This thesis focuses on developing the definitions of the ecological and carbon footprints, analysing the significant factors that affect their composition. The selected parameters are diverse, ranging from a host of economic, geographic and climatic factors. It is shown that both the carbon and ecological footprints are primarily driven by economic welfare, a result that reflects the consumptive nature and fundamental basis of the footprint. Analysis of the resultant correlating equations, for both the environmental and carbon footprints, highlights the differences between the developing and industrialised world in terms of their profligate or frugal use of Nature’s resources. This concludes the stark contrast between these regions of the globe in terms of their per capita and total footprint values. The disparity between the populous South and the prosperous North is further investigated to the year 2100, with the use of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s scenarios and adaptation of the correlating ecological footprint equation. Four separate scenarios are adopted, each having different underlying assumptions regarding economic development, demographic transition and environmental awareness for various regions of the world. For all scenarios the Southern regions rapidly increase their levels of total ecological footprint; in contrast the industrialised world maintains a relatively conservative evolution. Although different scenarios suggest contrasting future pathways, the hope of contraction and convergence among global footprint levels is not completely lost. The intensification of carbon emissions from both the affluent North and the majority South are considered with respect to population, economic and energy use trends from 1900 to the end of the twenty-first century. It is overwhelmingly shown that affluence will drive growth in carbon emissions across the world by the end of the century. Global inequality must be reduced; the footprint is utilised to demonstrate the trends in resource misuse and contrast between the ecological debtors and ecological creditors of the world. i ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Many thanks to my supervisor Geoff Hammond for his support throughout my PhD and enabling me to undertake the many opportunities that have arisen. I would like to thank Marcelle McManus for her guidance and help along the way, and thank everyone in the ‘Sustainable Energy Research Team’ at the University of Bath who have made my working life so enjoyable. Thank you so much to Gary Lock, whose continued encouragement has been a constant source of inspiration. Special thanks to my mum who has the patience of no other, never ending encouragement and has provided me with innumerable ‘pep’ talks. Thank you so much for your love and support, and being there when I really needed you. iii iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary.................................................................................................................................i Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................... iii Table of contents ..................................................................................................................v List of Figures.......................................................................................................................ix List of Tables..................................................................................................................... xiii Glossary................................................................................................................................xv Nomenclature................................................................................................................... xvii Chapter 1 The Boiled Frog Syndrome .............................................................................. 1 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................1 1.2 The Footprint ................................................................................................1 1.3 Ecological Footprint Analysis.....................................................................2 1.4 Aims and objectives .....................................................................................2 1.5 Overview of Thesis.......................................................................................3 1.6 Thesis Structure ............................................................................................5 1.7 Publications...................................................................................................7 Chapter 2 The Need for Sustainable Development....................................................... 9 2.1 Climate Change Cause for Concern...........................................................9 2.1.1 Effects of Climate Change................................................................. 10 2.1.2 Global Equity for Sustainable Development.................................. 12 2.2 Defining Sustainable Development .........................................................12 2.2.1 Indicators of Sustainable Development .......................................... 13 2.3 Summary .....................................................................................................15 2.4 Thesis Focus ................................................................................................15 Chapter 3 Stepping into the Footprint ........................................................................... 17 3.1 Background .................................................................................................17 3.2 The Basics ....................................................................................................17 3.3 Formulating a footprint.............................................................................18 3.3.1 The Bubble Concept........................................................................... 18 3.3.2 A Spatial Indicator............................................................................. 19 3.3.2.1 Global Hectare ............................................................................. 21 3.3.2.2 Equivalence factors...................................................................... 22 3.3.2.3 Yield factors.................................................................................. 22 3.4 Fundamentals of Footprints......................................................................23 3.5 National Footprint Accounts ....................................................................24 3.6 Carbon footprint.........................................................................................25 3.7 Praise, Limitations and Criticism.............................................................26