CATALYST OF CHANGE? PRESIDENT OBAMA’S IMPACT ON PUBLIC OPINION OF SAME-SEX MARRIAGE A thesis submitted to the Kent State University Honors College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for Departmental Honors By James M. King December, 2013 Thesis written by James Murat King Approved by ________________________________________________________________, Advisor ________________________________________, Chair, Department of Political Science Accepted by _____________________________________________________, Dean, Honors College ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS……………………………………………………………….v CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………..………...1 II. LITERATURE REVIEW………………………………………..……………6 III. CONTEXT…….…………………………………………………………….10 The History of Marriage Equality Movement……………………………….10 The History of Polling on Marriage Equality………………………………..26 The History of President Barack Obama and Marriage Equality……………20 IV. ACTIONS…...................................................................................................25 The First Actions: Hate Crimes, Memorandums, and Repealing DADT…...25 Breakthrough: President Obama’s Endorsement of Same-Sex Marriage…...29 President Obama’s Second Term and Marriage Equality…………………...34 V. IMPACT………………………………………….………………..………...39 President Obama’s Impact on Political Parties……………………………...39 President Obama’s Impact on Minority Opinions of Same-Sex Marriage….45 President Obama’s Impact of Overall Public Opinion………………………49 VI. CONCLUSION……………………………………………………………...55 REFERENCES…………………………………………………………………………..62 iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This thesis is one of the most challenging undertakings of my undergraduate career, and would have been impossible without a lot of helpful people. I would first like to thank Jim and Celeste King for their unconditional support. I would like to thank the Mrs. Karen Clement, the College of Arts & Sciences Learning Community and Kent State College Democrats for everything. Thank you Bryan Staul, Schad Dalton, Molly Knight, Matthew Rinear, Matthew Chernesky, and Emiko Waight for your help and encouragement throughout this process. I could not ask for better friends. I appreciate the staffs on both FreedomOhio and Organizing for America who have taught me so much about both politics and life. Special thanks go to Lora Rae Anderson; it was a pleasure working for you. In addition, thanks go to Generation Progress and the Washington Program in National Issues class of 2013. Thank you, Dr. Gabriella Paar-Jakli, Dr. Sara Newman, and Professor Matthew Shank. I appreciate all of you serving on my thesis committee, and your willingness to work with me. My greatest appreciation goes out to Dr. Richard Robyn. Without him, I never would have begun or completed this project. Learning from him in Washington affirmed my passion for politics and helped me narrow down my career choices. Dr. Robyn, I can never thank you enough for all you have done for me. iv CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Throughout the short history of the United States, campaigns and struggles toward greater equality are present. Since the dawn of the country, the abolition movement was a force until President Abraham Lincoln emancipated the slaves in 1863. The women’s rights movement was legitimized by the Seneca Falls Convention in 1848, and after achieving suffrage in 1920, transformed into the modern feminist movement still intact today. In the 1950s, a civil rights movement was born which struggled to achieve the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Throughout these campaigns, various presidents were entangled, their role ranging from either ardent supporter to immovable obstacles. When looking at the ongoing campaign for marriage equality, it’s easy to draw comparisons from historical movements. Like the other movements, the LGBT rights movement had a launching point, although marriage equality was never really the main objective, making this campaign distinctly unique. Instead of focusing on passing a constitutional amendment or even a federal law, the campaign has waged a national effort to turn the tide of public opinion on the issue of same-sex marriage. While less ambitious than a fully-fledged nationwide legalization campaign, this approach has drawn the issue into electoral races throughout the country, including the presidential races. 1 Though same-sex marriage was not a major political issue until the presidential campaign of 2004;the Democratic base would largely come to embrace the issue, making 2008 much more dynamic. The Republican Party, whom remained staunchly opposed to marriage equality, contrasted this. While Barack Obama won the election, supporting civil unions was far from the political norm, and most Democrats were unhappy, perceiving Obama as tiptoeing around marriage equality, while Republicans were angry he gave even tepid support of the issue at all. The most pressing issues during Obama’s first term happened to be economic, but something strange happened during his first term: support for same-sex marriage doubled each year under his presidency to four percent a year (“Gallup”). It seemed clear to many analysts that support for marriage equality had been steadily rising for the past two decades, but nothing explained the rapid leap during Obama’s first term. Many reporters immediately made assumptions about Obama’s role in the rising support. Some have even claimed President Obama’s support for marriage equality helped France legalize same-sex marriages, due to Obama’s high popularity there (Edaburn). This thinking was extremely convenient as well; a pro-LGBT president who passed several important laws for the LGBT community would have an immediate effect on public opinion. However, this political calculus is muddled by other variables. As president, Barack Obama has been an unwavering advocate for the LGBT community, though other activists were already in this arena long before he entered the White House. The various LGBT organizations had been thrust into the marriage equality fight during the 1990s, and this equality became the main goal after the Massachusetts Supreme Court legalized marriage equality in the Northeastern state in 2004. In addition, 2 equality for LGBT individuals was the main focus of some Democratic lawmakers, who had advanced equality bills in various legislatures across the country. However, the most important factor of the marriage equality movement is the LGBT population themselves. During the coming out phenomenon, which started in the 1990s. Americans who were apathetic or opposed to this issue were confronted with the knowledge that a close friend or family member was LGBT; and after soul-searching, many would change their positions on the issue (Wade). Despite the changes of policy the president pushed for and signed into law, could other groups have affected more change than President Obama? This is the key question this composition seeks to answer, and viewing historical comparisons, it’s unlikely Obama made much of an impact (DiClerico). After Obama’s first term, however, the political landscape around marriage equality is hardly recognizable. While still a moderately risky issue in 2008, it became a centerpiece of the Democrat’s platform (Peters). In addition, a dozen states that encompass one-third of Americans have legalized same-sex marriage (LGBT). In 2012, history was made when three states approved of marriage equality at the ballot in Maine, Washington, and Maryland. Less noted, but still important, a ban of same-sex marriage was defeated in Minnesota; quite remarkable, as the previous 31 had passed by significant margins (Minnesota would come to legalize same-sex marriage in 2013). In 2014, many Americans could see a same-sex marriage issue again on the ballot again, but to legalize it, rather than ban it (Chauncey A). The Supreme Court, while not ruling officially on the constitutionality of same-sex marriage, has still shown some support by striking down a major section of The Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA). Congress passed a comprehensive hate crimes bill to include LGBT Americans and repeal the 3 “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” (DADT) policy of the military. However, one of the most important victories for LGBT organizations was President Obama’s endorsement of same-sex marriage during the summer of the 2012 election. Anticipation had been building around the president since his first inauguration, as LGBT organizations craved a marriage equality endorsement from the president. Of course, this created a complicated political calculus, as the administration had to factor in the public’s reaction, the impact on the election, and more importantly: how would the president’s base would react and how would the Republican Party use the endorsement for their own political gain. All of these factors, and more, made the decision extremely risky, yet Obama did endorse marriage equality. At first glance, the president’s endorsement seemed not to have any effect on the political field; yet several smaller demographic groups showed shifts in support: African-Americans and Democrats (Frumin). Did the president bolster support for marriage equality from these two groups? One must also factor in the other political parties and Latinos, one of the fastest growing demographic groups in the nation. While embarking upon the research of the effect President Obama has made in the public opinion of same-sex marriage, one must specify certain questions necessary to explore. In an effort to establish a comprehensive understanding of the current political