Universität Potsdam Theresia Petrow | Axel Bronstert | Annegret Thieken | Kristin Vogel (Eds.) International Conference on „Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World“ 4–5 October 2018 University of Potsdam Universität Potsdam International Conference on “Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World” Theresia Petrow | Axel Bronstert | Annegret Thieken | Kristin Vogel (Eds.) International Conference on “Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World” 4-5 October 2018 University of Potsdam Universität Potsdam This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License: Attribution – NonCommercial –NoDerivatives4.0 International To view a copy of this license visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Book of abstracts of the International Conference on Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World Edition 2018 Editors: Theresia Petrow, Axel Bronstert, Annegret Thieken and Kristin Vogel Cover images: Impacts of a flash flood in the town of Braunsbach. Germany, Photo: Ana Lucía Vela (2016) Flooded road in the city of Meißen, Germany, Photo: Theresia Petrow (2013) Damaged road in Kumamoto (Japan), Photo: Haneda Yasutaka (2016) This work has been supported by the Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) through the Research Training Group “Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World” (NatRiskChange; GRK 2043/1) Universität Potsdam 2018 Published online at the Institutional Repository of the University of Potsdam: URN urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4- 416613 http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4- 416613 International Conference on "Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World" 4-5 October 2018 University of Potsdam Scientific Committee • Prof. Dr. Axel Bronstert, Chair of Hydrology and Climatology, Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany • Prof. Dr. Fabrice Cotton, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, German Research Centre for Geosciences - GFZ, Potsdam, Germany • Dr. Theresia Petrow, Institute of Earth and Environmental Science University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany • Prof. Dr. Frank Scherbaum, Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany • Prof. Dr. Annegret Thieken, Institute of Earth and Environmental Science University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany • Dr. Kristin Vogel, Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Pots- dam, Potsdam, Germany • apl. Prof. Dr. Gert Zöller, Institute of Mathematics, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany Preface Natural hazards such as floods, earthquakes, landslides, and multi-hazard events heavily affect human societies and call for better management strategies. Due to the severity of such events, it is of utmost importance to understand whether and how they change in re- sponse to evolving hydro-climatological, geo-physical and socio-economic conditions. These conditions jointly determine the magnitude, frequency, and impact of disasters, and are changing in response to climate change and human behavior. Therefore methods are need- ed for hazard and risk quantification accounting for the transient nature of hazards and risks in response to changing natural and anthropogenic altered systems. The purpose of this conference is to bring together researchers from natural sciences (e.g. hydrology, meteorol- ogy, geomorphology, hydraulic engineering, environmental science, seismology, geogra- phy), risk research, nonlinear systems dynamics, and applied mathematics to discuss new insights and developments about data science, changing systems, multi-hazard events and the linkage between hazard and vulnerabilities under unstable environmental conditions. Knowledge transfer, communication and networking will be key issues of the conference. The conference is organized by means of invited talks given by outstanding experts, oral presentations, poster sessions and discussions. We are very pleased to welcome you to Potsdam. We hope you will enjoy your participation at the International Conference on Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World and have an exciting and beneficial experience. Finally, we would like to thank all speakers, partici- pants, supporters, and sponsors for their contributions that for sure will make this event a very remarkable and fruitful meeting. We acknowledge the valuable support of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft DFG (Research Training Group “Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World” (NatRiskChange; GRK 2043/1), as the conference would not have been possible without their help. Without your cooperation, this conference would neither be possible nor successful. Axel Bronstert, Annegret Thieken and Theresia Petrow Potsdam, 4 October 2018 Thursday, 4th October 2018 8:00 – 9:00 Registration 9:00 – 9:15 Welcome and opening by Axel Bronstert (Chair of the RTG NatRiskChange), Lecture Hall H02 9:15 – 9:30 Welcome and opening by Oliver Günther (President of UP) 9:30 – 10:15 Keynote Speech “Changing systems” by Prof. Dr. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Potsdam), Moderation: A. Bronstert 10:15 – 10:45 Coffee break 10:45 – 12:45 Parallel sessions Session 1: „Floods and Droughts“ Session 2: „Geophysical Hazards“ (Convener: H. Kreibich) (Convener: F. Cotton) Lecture Hall H02 Lecture Hall H01 Increasing severity of floods associ- A Physics-Based PSHA Conceptual ated with changing climate in the 10:45-11:05 Workflow for Low-Strain Areas coastal megacities of India (S.N. (M.J. Ziebarth) Krishnapillai) Flood risk (d)evolution: disentangling Learning more to predict landslides key drivers of flood risk change with 11:05-11:25 in different scales (Regional to lo- a retro-model experiment (M. cal) (U. Ozturk) Mosimann) From Fire to Frosts to Floods, and from Droughts to Diseases to Dis- Sinkhole characterization with comfort: Prognoses into the Future supplementing geophysical meth- 11:25-11:45 of Climate Drivers in an Already Cli- ods – the joint project SIMULTAN mate Stressed South Africa (R. (Ch. Krawczyk) Schulze (invited)) The influence of transient flood risk A regionalized strain-rate based 11:45-12:05 factor on the expectation of loss (K. seismicity model for subduction Piroth) zones (J.A.B. Viveros) Development of Droughts in Brazil in Coupling Empirical and Simulation- 12:05-12:25 the last years (E.S.P.R. Martins (in- based Ground Motion Model (H. vited)) Razafindrakoto) Flash-Floods: more often, more se- Variabilities and Uncertainties in vere, more damaging? An analysis of Seismic Ground-Motion Prediction: 12:25-12:45 hydro-geo-environmental conditions Implications on Seismic Hazard and anthropogenic impacts (A. Assessment (S.R. Kotha) Bronstert) 1 12:45 – 14:00 Lunch - Discussion and Poster Session 14:00 – 14:45 Keynote Speech “Linking hazard and vulnerability” by Prof. Dr. Jeroen Aerts (VU Amsterdam, Institute for Environmental Studies), Moderation: A. Thieken; Lecture Hall H02 14:45 – 16:00 Poster Session (incl. coffee break) 16:00 – 18:00 Parallel sessions „Linking Hazard and Vulnerability“ and „Modelling and Data“ Session 3: „Linking Hazard and Vul- Session 4: „Modelling and Data“ nerability“ (Convener: A. Walz) (Convener: G. Zöller) Lecture Hall H02 Lecture Hall H01 EMRA: A Decision support system Adaptability as a strategy to manage for monitoring, warning and risk 16:00-16:20 natural hazards in an uncertain fu- assessment of weather extremes ture (D. Straub) for agriculture (Th. Ulbrich) Sub-hourly extreme rainfall scenar- Efficiency of flood protection 16:20-16:40 ios (following Clausius-Clapeyron) measures (W. Kron) (G. Bürger) Translating flood disasters into the Damage estimation for hydro- 16:40-17:00 future – a storyline approach to meteorological hazards at seamless build flood resilience (J. Sillmann) spatial scales (T. Sieg) Human influence and response to Basic European Assets Map, a Co- 17:00-17:20 socio-natural hazards (G. Baldas- pernicus Service addressing cross sarre) border activities (A. Assmann) What approaches and data are Forecasting Weather Related Fire needed to better understand trends Brigade Operations by linking me- 17:20-17:40 in drought and flood impacts? (H. teorological forecasts with vulner- Kreibich) ability indicators 54 (M. Göber) Improving hazard communication using online map services and in- The 1968 floods in South-East of the teractive visualization approaches: 17:40-18:00 United Kingdom: A 50 Year Retro- experiences from cooperation with spective (H. Rodda) administration partners in Saxony (Germany), Argentina and Colom- bia (A. Bergner) 18:00 End of Plenary 19:00 Conference Dinner 2 Friday, 5th October 2018 09:00 – 09:45 Invited Talk “Data Science” by Prof. Dr. Matthias Holschneider (University of Potsdam, Institute of Mathematics), Moderation: F. Scherbaum; Lecture Hall H02 09:45 – 10:00 DKKV Award „prepardness 2030“, Moderation: F. Scherbaum 10:00 – 10:30 Coffee break 10:30 – 12:30 Parallel sessions „Exposure and Risk Management“ and „Data Science and Information Systems“ Session 5: „Exposure and Risk Session 6: „Data Science and In- Management“ incl. awardee (Con- formation Systems“ (Convener: K. vener: A. Thieken) Vogel) Lecture Hall H02 Lecture Hall H01 10:30-10:50 Developing Machine Learning Ap- DKKV awardee proaches for the Seismological da- ta in Northern Chile (J. Bedford) 10:50-11:10 Climate impact simulations indicate Why omnipresent input data flaws that historical warming has at least may hamper a dynamic perspective tripled global population annually in data-driven landslide susceptibil- exposed to extreme events (S. ity modelling (S. Steger) Lange) 11:10-11:30