Ten Years of the Skye Bridge Lessons, questions and implications Derek Halden , DHC 26 Palmerston Place, Edinburgh, Tel 0870 350 4201 [email protected], www.dhc1.co.uk Contents z Transport and rural development z The bridge z Lessons and issues Travel Time to Nearest Major City in Hours >4.0 Travel 3.0-4.0 2.0-3.0 1.0-2.0 0.5-1.0 Opportunities <0.5 Urban Postcodes Time to major Cities Access to Local Services Skye Bridge in Context The Studies z 1992 – Feasibility Studies z 1995/6 – Baseline before and after review z 1998 – DTZ study z 2002 – Napier review z 2006 – 10 year review – Review of data and research – Survey work – Analysis of relationships and trends – Lessons Learned Wider Impacts Skye Bridge Direct Impacts Time, Cost, Reliability, Information, Image, Comfort Households Businesses Tourists R- SES EE Consumption Operating Costs Trip number/length MM Patterns Employment Trip origins and Employment and Volume/ distribution destinations TER income effects of sales and purchases Expenditure Levels SHORT RESPON Migra tion RlReloca tion (in an d ou t) TiTourism inves tmen ts S Demand for Local Change in investment Shifts in tourism Services patterns demand and supply Consumption trends TERM LONGER- RESPONSE Local Socio-Economic Impact Regional Impact Wealth Job Generation Quality of Life Linkages and Creation Employment Amenity multipliers Income Job Quality Income Displacement Productivity Distribution Timeline Date Event Principppal Direct Impact April 1992 24 hour ferry services introduced. Time, reliability 17 October 1995 Bridge opens and ferry services cease. Tolls Time, image, comfort, were slightly cheaper than ferry fares for all reliability, and cost vehicle categories. 1998 Toll regime change funded by Scottish Cost Executive, with reductions in tolls for local people via books of tickets to £1.34 per single journey. 21 December 2004 Tolls removed. Cost, time Other Changes 1991 1995 1998 2004 Minutes Pedestrians 0 +7.5 0 0 Scheduled Bus 0 Complex changes with new bus routes and frequencies that significantly increase some The Changes journey times and reduce others. Car Up to 4 LGV hours in -14 0 -[0.05] HGV summer Coach peaks Ferry 1995-19981 1998- 2004 Tolls/fares All Discount High Low Discount High Low Discount (i(singl le Season Season season season season journeys) Pedestrian 0 0 £0.55 £0.11 +£(bus fare)? +£(bus s2 fare)? Car/light £5.40 £3. 10 £5. 20 £4.30 £2. 44 £5. 70 £4. 70 £1. 34 vans Local Bus * £15.35 £14.90 - £16.40 £12.26 Midi Coach £22.00 £21.60 £14.30 - £23.70 £15.80 - * Coach * £41.10 £37.50 £25.40 - £41.20 £27.50 - HGV1 * £12.70 £12.70 £12.30 £14.00 £10.13 HGV2 * £25.40 £25.40 £24.59 £27.90 £20.26 Analysis Zones 500 450 400 Annum 350 300 TiTrip 1995 250 2006 200 Distribution 150 ousand Trips per hh 100 T 50 0 Kyleakin Skye (S) Skye (N) 350 300 250 200 1995 1998 150 usand tripsusand 2006 oo Th 100 50 0 Kyle of Lochalsh Lochaber Rest of Highland Elsewhere Lochalsh 900 800 700 Annum rr 600 500 1998 400 2006 By Purpose 300 200 housand Tripshousand pe TT 100 0 HBW EB Holiday Other 300 250 nnum 200 HBW EB 150 Holiday Trips per A Other 100 Thousand Thousand 50 0 Kyle Lochalsh Lochaber Highland Elsewhere 130 Skye Bridge 125 Rural Scottish Trunk Roads =100) 66 120 115 Kyle-Kyleakin 110 ffic Index (199 Index ffic aa Tr 105 100 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Year Suppressed Local Trips z Approx 400k per year Trends in the Economy BiBusiness Views of fI Impact ths have Changed z Local impacts relatively more important Business Impacts z Winners – Entrepreneurs – Investors – Skye “brand” z Losers – Protected markets – e. g. shops – Low value markets Tourism z Impact of toll removal limited z Positive impacts through image and marketing z Negative impact from loss of island identify – Mallaig and Glenelg ferries largely tourist travel z Accommodation quality critical – Bed spaces? – Business ownership issues? Household Views z Now closer to expectations for less remote areas Household Views of Toll Removal 35% 30% 25% ing Impact ing tt 20% 15% All Responses Indica Responses All 10% %% 5% 0% Incr. Shopping in Incr. Social Visits in Incr. Shopping / Incr. Employment Moved / Reduced Incr. Shopping on Incr. Social Visits to Others Kyle / Lochalsh Kyle / Lochalsh Social in Inverness Opps / New Jobs Considering Moving Frustration / Cost / Skye Skye On/Off Island to Skye Hassle Lifestyle Changes GlGeneral Perceptions z 30% of house buyers from outside Scotland – Fastest increase in house sales 1992-1995 – Some local net migration from mainland to island z Attitudes and accessibility – Very strong correlation Household Savings z Some evidence of savings by households – IhIn shops, tlltolls z Household savings on toll – circa £1m – Net saving less than £200k – Households in the south of Skye spending more on transport IlIsland s and dLik Links t o M Milainland Economies z Remoteness is the most important factor User Benefits z Three fifths of the benefit comes from toll removal Appraisal Issues z Transport appraisal did not help to identify ittitimportant impacts – Demand could not be forecast without knowing the economic impacts z Once we know the economic impacts then transport appraisal can be used to measure them – However values of time are much lower than national averages so what are we comparing z Setting transport investment in context Appraisal Framework Define/redefine the accessibility probl em Who needs to be involved in delivering the change What knowledge of accessibility impacts is required by each stakeholder Define practical solutions Assess the impacts of the change on eachlh people group Identify delivery approach to maxim ise th e accessibilit y benefits Questions z What sort of rural and remote areas do people want? z What is the role of government in supporting this ? z How can we make the right transport decisions given the high costs and long term benefits?.