Southern Pennines: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC Contents 1 Introduction .................................................................................... 1 Strategic Dimension .............................................................................. 10 2 Introduction .................................................................................. 10 3 The Case for Change ...................................................................... 22 4 The Need for Intervention ............................................................. 62 5 Wider Context ................................................................................ 67 6 Option Assessment Process ........................................................... 70 7 Strategic Dimension Summary ....................................................... 91 Economic Dimension ............................................................................. 92 8 Introduction .................................................................................. 92 9 Approach to Cost Estimation .......................................................... 99 10 Quantified SDC Programme Impacts ............................................ 102 11 Economy Impacts ........................................................................ 109 12 Environment Impacts................................................................... 112 13 Social Impacts ............................................................................. 117 14 Public Accounts Impacts .............................................................. 121 15 Value for Money ........................................................................... 123 Financial Dimension ............................................................................ 132 16 Introduction ................................................................................ 132 17 Implementation Funding Requirement ........................................ 133 18 Operational Life Funding Requirement ......................................... 136 Commercial Dimension ....................................................................... 137 19 Introduction ................................................................................ 137 March 2019 | i Southern Pennines: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC 20 Approach to Procurement ............................................................ 137 21 Next Steps ................................................................................... 143 Management Dimension ...................................................................... 144 22 Introduction ................................................................................ 144 23 Programme Governance ............................................................... 144 24 Programme Lifecycle and Sequencing .......................................... 147 25 Stakeholder Management and Communications ........................... 148 26 Risk and Opportunities Management ........................................... 149 27 Monitoring and Evaluation ........................................................... 151 28 Management Dimension Summary ............................................... 153 Glossary .............................................................................................. 154 Appendices ......................................................................................... 157 Figures Figure 1: TfN Strategic Development Corridors ....................................... 2 Figure 2: Important Economic Centres in the Southern Pennines SDC ....... 6 Figure 3: The Three Phases of the Decision Making Process ...................... 8 Figure 4: TfN's Key Pan-Northern Objectives ........................................ 14 Figure 5: Emerging vision for the Northern Powerhouse Rail Network ...... 19 Figure 6: Prime Capabilities and IECs in Southern Pennines SDC ............ 24 Figure 7: Relative Productivity of major centres within the Southern Pennines SDC, North of England and other parts of the UK (GVA per head index 2015) ..................................................................................... 26 Figure 8: Proportion of working age population with NVQA+ qualifications in 2017 ............................................................................................... 27 Figure 9: Skills demand UK by region .................................................. 28 Figure 10: Weighted average total distance travelled by rail per person per year by NPIER Capability in England .................................................... 29 Figure 11: Transport interventions and economic performance ............... 31 Figure 12: Travel to Work movements -All Modes (2011 Census Data) .... 33 March 2019 | ii Southern Pennines: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC Figure 13: Average Road Speeds ........................................................ 34 Figure 14: Daily Traffic Volumes on the TfN Major Road Network ............ 35 Figure 15: Intercity and Interurban Services Average Speed Map ........... 37 Figure 16: Total Visitor spend ............................................................. 41 Figure 17: TfN’s Major Road Network (MRN)......................................... 44 Figure 18: 2016 to 2050 Difference in Rail Cargo Tonnes in Southern Pennines SDC ................................................................................... 49 Figure 19: 2016 to 2050 Difference in Road Cargo Tonnes in Southern Pennines SDC ................................................................................... 49 Figure 20: GVA change (000s) 2015-2050 for Southern Pennines SDC .... 54 Figure 21: Annual Passenger Movements and Percentage of UK Total ...... 58 Figure 22: Manchester Airport Business/Hub Destinations ...................... 59 Figure 23: UK Major Ports – Domestic and International Annual Freight Tonnage .......................................................................................... 60 Figure 24: Staged Approach to Pan-Northern transport scheme identification .................................................................................... 70 Figure 25: Southern Pennines SDC Road Reference Case and SOP Proposals ...................................................................................................... 85 Figure 26: Passenger rail SOP proposals across the Pan-Northern Strategic Development Corridors ...................................................................... 86 Figure 27: Southern Pennines SDC Passenger Rail SOP Proposals ........... 87 Figure 28: Estimation of Costs for Appraisal ........................................101 Figure 29: 2050 Daily (AADT) Flow Difference (‘Do Something’ Strategic Outline Programme minus Reference Case) .........................................104 Figure 30: Distribution of Benefits ......................................................105 Figure 31: Distributional Impacts .......................................................118 Figure 32: Investment programme development process ......................141 Figure 33: Example from Trans-Pennine Tunnel Study (HE/TfN/DfT) ......142 Figure 34: SDC Governance Structure ................................................145 Figure 35: High-level delivery programme ..........................................147 Figure 36: TfN's Risk Management Process..........................................150 Tables Table 1 DfT’s Transport Investment Strategy Objectives ........................ 12 Table 2 Reference case parameters and assumptions ............................ 20 March 2019 | iii Southern Pennines: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC Table 3 Reference Case: List of interventions (Road/Rail) ...................... 21 Table 4 SDC Sub-objectives ............................................................... 65 Table 5 Assessment scoring scale ....................................................... 74 Table 6: Strategic Outline Programme of Interventions .......................... 77 Table 7 Warehousing growth by region (assumptions made for freight modelling of clustered warehousing) ................................................... 88 Table 8 Appraisal of Strategic Outline Programme of Road Interventions .. 96 Table 9: Appraisal of Strategic Outline Programme of Rail Interventions .. 97 Table 10: Scope of Economic Assessment for Southern Pennines SDC SOP .....................................................................................................109 Table 11: Business User Impact .........................................................110 Table 12 Business Users Reliability Impacts.........................................110 Table 13 Level 2 Wider Impacts Summary ..........................................111 Table 14 Summary of SDC Programme Economy Impacts .....................112 Table 15 Greenhouse Gases Monetised Impact ....................................114 Table 16 Summary of Environment Impacts ........................................116 Table 17 Summary of Consumer User Impacts (Travel Time) ................117 Table 18: Commuting and Other Users Reliability Impacts ....................118 Table 19: Commuting and Others Affordability ....................................119 Table 20 Summary of Social Impacts ..................................................120 Table 21 DfT’s CPSS Cost Proforma Summary Sheet ............................121 Table 22 Indirect Tax Revenue Benefits ..............................................122 Table 23 Public Accounts Table for the SDC Programme