ISSN 1932-6157 (print) ISSN 1941-7330 (online) THE ANNALS of APPLIED STATISTICS AN OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE INSTITUTE OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS Articles Editorial.....................................................SUSAN M. PADDOCK 1921 Spatial accessibility of pediatric primary healthcare: Measurement and inference MALLORY NOBLES,NICOLETA SERBAN AND JULIE SWANN 1922 Discussion...................................................LAURA A. HATFIELD 1947 Discussion.................................................AMELIA M. HAVILAND 1952 Discussion.....................................................LANCE A. WALLER 1956 Rejoinder...............MALLORY NOBLES,NICOLETA SERBAN AND JULIE SWANN 1961 Reconstructing past temperatures from natural proxies and estimated climate forcings using short- and long-memory models LUIS BARBOZA,BO LI,MARTIN P. T INGLEY AND FREDERI G. 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TSENG 2150 Longitudinal high-dimensional principal components analysis with application to diffusion tensor imaging of multiple sclerosis VADIM ZIPUNNIKOV,SONJA GREVEN,HAOCHANG SHOU,BRIAN S. CAFFO, DANIEL S. REICH AND CIPRIAN M. CRAINICEANU 2175 A novel spectral method for inferring general diploid selection from time series genetic data...........MATTHIAS STEINRÜCKEN,ANAND BHASKAR AND YUN S. SONG 2203 Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme storms . THEODOROS ECONOMOU, DAV I D B. STEPHENSON AND CHRISTOPHER A. T. FERRO 2223 Voronoi residual analysis of spatial point process models with applications to California earthquake forecasts . ...........................ANDREW BRAY,KA WONG, CHRISTOPHER D. BARR AND FREDERIC PAIK SCHOENBERG 2247 Longitudinal Mixed Membership trajectory models for disability survey data DANIEL MANRIQUE-VALLIER 2268 A fast algorithm for detecting gene–gene interactions in genome-wide association studies.................JIAHAN LI,WEI ZHONG,RUNZE LI AND RONGLING WU 2292 continued Vol. 8, No. 4—December 2014 ISSN 1932-6157 (print) ISSN 1941-7330 (online) THE ANNALS of APPLIED STATISTICS AN OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE INSTITUTE OF MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS Articles—Continued from front cover A permutational-splitting sample procedure to quantify expert opinion on clusters of chemical compounds using high-dimensional data ELASMA MILANZI,ARIEL ALONSO,CHRISTOPHE BUYCK, GEERT MOLENBERGHS AND LUC BIJNENS 2319 The use of covariates and random effects in evaluating predictive biomarkers under a potential outcome framework ZHIWEI ZHANG,LEI NIE,GUOXING SOON AND AIYI LIU 2336 Evaluating epoetin dosing strategies using observational longitudinal data CECILIA A. COTTON AND PATRICK J. HEAGERTY 2356 Synthesising evidence to estimate pandemic (2009) A/H1N1 influenza severity in 2009–2011 . ANNE M. PRESANIS,RICHARD G. PEBODY,PAUL J. BIRRELL, BRIAN D. M. TOM,HELEN K. GREEN,HAYLEY DURNALL, DOUGLAS FLEMING AND DANIELA DE ANGELIS 2378 Detecting duplicates in a homicide registry using a Bayesian partitioning approach MAURICIO SADINLE 2404 Functional response additive model estimation with online virtual stock markets YINGYING FAN,NATASHA FOUTZ,GARETH M. JAMES AND WOLFGANG JANK 2435 Probit models for capture–recapture data subject to imperfect detection, individual heterogeneityandmisidentification.....................BRETT T. MCCLINTOCK, LARISSA L. BAILEY,BRIAN P. D REHER AND WILLIAM A. LINK 2461 Do debit cards increase household spending? Evidence from a semiparametric causal analysisofasurvey.........................ANDREA MERCATANTI AND FAN LI 2485 Reduced-rank spatio-temporal modeling of air pollution concentrations in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution CASEY OLIVES,LIANNE SHEPPARD,JOHAN LINDSTRÖM,PAUL D. SAMPSON, JOEL D. KAUFMAN AND ADAM A. SZPIRO 2509 Nonparametric inference in a stereological model with oriented cylinders applied to dual phasesteel.................K.S.MCGARRITY,J.SIETSMA AND G. JONGBLOED 2538 Acknowledgment of priority Usage of the Lambert W functioninstatistics......................GEORG M. GOERG 2567 Vol. 8, No. 4—December 2014 The Annals of Applied Statistics 2014, Vol. 8, No. 4, 1921 DOI: 10.1214/14-AOAS728ED Main article DOI: 10.1214/14-AOAS728 © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2014 EDITORIAL: SPATIAL ACCESSIBILITY OF PEDIATRIC PRIMARY HEALTHCARE: MEASUREMENT AND INFERENCE BY SUSAN M. PADDOCK RAND Corporation REFERENCES ADAY,L.A.andANDERSEN, R. (1974). A framework for the study of access to medical care. Health Serv. Res. 9 208–220. NOBLES,M.,SERBAN,N.andSWANN, J. (2014). Spatial accessibility of pediatric primary health- care: Measurement and inference. Ann. Appl. Stat. 8 1922–1946. The Annals of Applied Statistics 2014, Vol. 8, No. 4, 1922–1946 DOI: 10.1214/14-AOAS728 © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2014 SPATIAL ACCESSIBILITY OF PEDIATRIC PRIMARY HEALTHCARE: MEASUREMENT AND INFERENCE1,2 BY MALLORY NOBLES,NICOLETA SERBAN AND JULIE SWANN3 Georgia Institute of Technology Although improving financial access is in the spotlight of the current U.S. health policy agenda, this alone does not address universal and compre- hensive healthcare. Affordability is one barrier to healthcare, but others such as availability and accessibility, together defined as spatial accessibility,are equally important. In this paper, we develop a measurement and modeling framework that can be used to infer the impact of policy changes on dispari- ties in spatial accessibility within and across different population groups. The underlying model for measuring spatial accessibility is optimization-based and accounts for constraints in the healthcare delivery system. The measure- ment method is complemented by statistical modeling and inference on the impact of various potential contributing factors to disparities in spatial acces- sibility. The emphasis of this study is on children’s accessibility to primary care pediatricians, piloted for the state of Georgia. We focus on disparities in accessibility between and within two populations: children insured by Med- icaid and other children. 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