New York City’s Roadmap to 80 to City’s Roadmap x 50 York New New York City’s Roadmap to nyc.gov/onenyc The City of New York #OneNYC Mayor Bill de Blasio @NYClimate Anthony Shorris Printed on 100% post-consumer recyled paper First Deputy Mayor New York City’s Roadmap to 80 x 50 is published pursuant to Local Law 66 of 2014. This report was produced by the New York City Mayor’s Office of Sustainability. This document was designed by Elisa Chaudet Cover Photo: Michael Appleton, Mayor’s Photography Office 80 x 50 Table of Contents Letter from the Mayor 3 Executive Summary 5 Introduction 15 Methodology 23 Energy 35 Buildings 55 Transportation 79 Waste 99 Actions New Yorkers Can Do 110 Next Steps 113 Glossary 117 Directory of Abbreviations 127 End Notes 129 nyc.gov/onenyc 80 x 50 1 80 x 50 Letter from the Mayor 2 80 x 50 nyc.gov/onenyc 80 x 50 Friends, Two years ago, I joined 400,000 others as we marched for action on climate change and committed that New York City would continue to lead by reducing greenhouse gases 80 percent by 2050, or 80 x 50. We detailed this commitment in our OneNYC report. Since that time, the nations of the world have come together to agree on a ground- breaking Paris Agreement, and just this month the world’s two biggest emitters, the US and China, committed to joining that agreement, putting it on a path toward ratification. Locally, we have continued to drive down our emissions, but we have much more to do. OneNYC makes clear how much progress has been made toward ensuring that New York City is the most sustainable big city in the world. Our air is cleaner, our streets are greener, and we are sending less waste to landfills. Achieving 80 x 50 will require even more dramatic action, across all of New York City’s buildings, infrastructure, parks, and open spaces. That’s why we have committed billions of dollars for energy efficiency measures in our own municipal buildings, ramped up the purchase of electric vehicles for our fleet, and dramatically expanded the use of solar power across the city. In each case, we are seeking to use our own purchasing power to transform the marketplace and create demand for the technology we know will be necessary to achieve 80 x 50. Today, we are taking the next steps on this pathway to achieve 80 x 50. This roadmap includes world-leading analysis of our city’s emissions, an analysis of difficult choices we have to make to drive down our emissions, and the types of actions that will be required to transform how we use energy in every part of our lives. This report lays out a platform for action—one that can guide our actions now and into the future. Over the next several years, we will be doing more to build on these successes—including expanding initiatives that provide more just environmental outcomes for all New Yorkers—to reach our goals of a greener, more sustainable city. Anything less would be unacceptable. Continuing to deliver on these commitments will require nothing less than bold, innovative solutions and strong partnerships—and New York City will be a model to inspire other cities around the world to do the same. Everyday, our work only grows to build an even stronger, more sustainable, more resilient, and more equitable city—OneNYC. Mayor Bill de Blasio nyc.gov/onenyc 80 x 50 3 80 x 50 Executive Summary 4 80 x 50 nyc.gov/onenyc 80 x 50 Climate change is an existential threat to our city, our ExpectedExpected Temperature Temperatu Increasesre Increases in NYC in NYC through through the country, and our planet. With the signing of the Paris Endthe of End the Centuryof the Century (°F) Agreement in December 2015, 195 nations under the Temperature - Mean Annual Changes Baseline (1971 - 2000) 54°F United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Temperature - Mean Annual Changes Change, agreed to limit global temperature increase to Baseline (1971-2000) 54°F no more than two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The Agreement also recognizes the need to curb warming even further, and urges nations to increase efforts to limit global temperature increase to no more 12.1° than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. To reach these ambitious but necessary targets, developed 10.3° countries will have to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the harmful gases that are the cause of global climate change, by at least 80 percent by 2050 (80 x 50). 5.8-10.3° 6.6° 5.3-8.8° In September 2014, New York City committed itself to 80 x 50, with an interim target to reduce GHG emissions 4.1-5.7° 40 percent by 2030 (40 x 30), and took immediate steps 3.8° 4.2° to achieve that goal. We committed billions of dollars 3.2° 3.1° to reduce our own carbon footprint with investments in 2.0-2.8° energy efficiency for municipal buildings. We followed 1.5° that up with the release of One New York: The Plan for a Strong and Just City (OneNYC) in April 2015, laying the blueprint for inclusive climate action that works for all 2020s 2050s 2080s 2100 New Yorkers across four key visions of Growth, Equity, Sustainability, and Resiliency. In OneNYC, we expanded our commitment to 80 x 50 with new investments in re- 2020s 2050s 2080s 2100 newable energy, electric vehicles, and solid waste man- agement that are improving air quality across the city High/Low and catalyzing an important shift away from fossil fu- Middle el-based sources of energy. With New York City’s Road- map to 80 x 50, the City is laying out a comprehensive The low estimate (10th percentile), middle range report, based on the best available science and state-of- (25th percentile to 75th percentile), and high the-art GHG emissions modeling, to assess what will be estimate (90th percentile). necessary to reach 80 x 50, and to promote economic opportunities that come from the investments that will be required. nyc.gov/onenyc 80 x 50 5 80 x 50 The Roadmap to 80 x 50 Benefits of 80 x 50 for all New Yorkers We now know what it takes to achieve 80 x 50. The City On the path to 80 x 50, the city will take major steps must accelerate efforts to make buildings and vehicles that can improve the quality of life for New Yorkers and significantly more energy efficient, replace many fossil develop new industries that have significant potential fuel-based heating and hot water systems in buildings for new job creation. Retrofits to buildings will improve with renewable or high efficiency electric systems, tran- the quality of housing, and the energy efficiency gained sition towards a renewables-based electric grid, signifi- will help to keep homes affordable over the long-term. cantly reduce the number of miles driven while tran- Shifts towards transportation options that are clean- sitioning remaining vehicle trips to electric and clean er and multi-modal will improve air quality and public fuel vehicles, and achieve the goal of Zero Waste to health outcomes in our communities, while also provid- landfills. The technologies necessary to shift away from ing access to more transportation options to New York- fossil fuels and reduce waste-related emissions exist to- ers that currently lack them. An expansion of renewable day. However, bold action is necessary from all levels of energy across the city will provide communities with government and the private sector to make the invest- more choice, and will enhance the resiliency of critical ments, develop new regulatory frameworks, and drive services in neighborhoods that are currently vulnerable institutional and societal changes necessary to achieve to outages and weather impacts. In the end, we know 80 x 50. that this path is necessary and comes with a moral im- perative that we pass on a stronger and more just world to the next generation. One N e w Yor k One City The Plan for a Strong Built to Last and Just City New YOrk CITY’s PaThwaYs TO DeeP CarbON reDUCTIONs DECEMBER 2013 A GREENER, GREATER New YOrk The City of New York The City of New York Mayor Bill de Blasio Mayor Bill de Blasio The City of New York Mayor’s Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability NYC Mayor’s Office Anthony Shorris, First Deputy Mayor Anthony Shorris First Deputy Mayor 1 December 2013 September 2014 April 2015 PlaNYC: New York One City Built to Last, One New York: The City’s Pathways to Deep 10-year plan to reduce Plan for a Strong Carbon Reductions, emissions from NYC and Just City, NYC’s Evaluation of the technical buildings comprehensive plan for potential of 80 x 50 a strong, sustainable, NYC committed to resilient, and equitable 80 x 50 city February 2015 Buildings Technical Working Group kickoff 6 80 x 50 nyc.gov/onenyc 80 x 50 New York City already has one of the lowest levels of tiatives, once fully realized, along with existing state and GHG emissions per resident among major national and federal level policies and market trends, put us on track global cities. In fact, the city’s GHG emissions per capita to achieve an interim target of a 40 percent reduction are just one-third the U.S. average. In 2007, New York by 2030 (40 x 30). The City’s analysis shows that the City committed to a first-ever goal of reducing green- projected impact of these efforts will make it possible house gas emissions 30 percent by 2030.