Public Confidence Modelling: A Locally Based Approach to Police Performance Management Michael George Perkins PhD University of York Management July 2013 i ABSTRACT In the UK, the ability of the police to function effectively depends on the authority that they can command, rather than the force that they can deploy. It is therefore essential that police retain their image as the legitimate defenders of the British public. This can only be achieved through maintaining levels of public confidence in policing. This thesis presents the analysis of a large-scale survey, designed to assess the perceptions of York residents towards crime, their local area, and the police. Structural Equation Modelling is used to assess the drivers of public confidence in York, and create a framework to understand the multiple interactions between the factors tested in the study, and the main dependent variable of public confidence. This framework is tested to evaluate whether there are differences within the city that affect how the public confidence framework functions. Previous studies on the determinants of public confidence have mainly focused on locations outside the UK, used aggregated national data, or studied public confidence in large, metropolitan urban areas. No research has been carried out examining public confidence in an urban area with similar characteristics to York. We contribute to knowledge by revealing the drivers of public confidence in the smaller urban area of York. We develop a public confidence framework that provides a holistic understanding of the nature of public confidence in York, showing that an understanding of the relationships between all factors in a public confidence model is essential if the true nature of this concept is to be understood. We demonstrate that even in a homogenous environment, differences in the overall framework of public confidence exist, depending on the perceptions people hold about their local area. Several potential strategies are presented to assist the North Yorkshire Police in improving levels of public confidence within York. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ............................................................................................................................. ii Table of Contents ............................................................................................................. iii Table of Tables ................................................................................................................. xi Table of Figures ............................................................................................................. xiii Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................ xiv Author’s Declaration ....................................................................................................... xv Chapter 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 North Yorkshire and the City of York .................................................................... 2 1.3 Public Confidence in Austerity ............................................................................... 3 1.4 Research Motivation ............................................................................................... 4 1.5 Research Goal and Questions ................................................................................. 5 1.6 Methodology Overview .......................................................................................... 6 1.7 Research Contributions ........................................................................................... 8 1.7.1 Contributions to Knowledge ............................................................................ 9 1.7.2 Contributions to Practice and Policy ................................................................ 9 1.7.3 Methodological Contributions ....................................................................... 10 1.8 Conclusion and Structure of the Thesis ................................................................ 11 Chapter 2. Performance Measurement and Performance Management .......................... 14 2.1 Introduction to the Literature Review ................................................................... 14 2.1.1 Aims and Objectives of the Literature review ............................................... 14 2.1.2 Methodology .................................................................................................. 17 2.2 Introduction to Performance Measurement and Performance Management......... 17 2.2.1 Definitions ...................................................................................................... 18 2.2.2 Development of PMM as an Academic Discipline ........................................ 23 iii 2.2.3 Why Measure and Manage Performance? ..................................................... 24 2.3 Introduction to Performance Measurement and Management Systems (PMSs) .. 25 2.3.1 The Development of PMSs ............................................................................ 26 2.3.2 PMS Features ................................................................................................. 27 2.3.3 Performance Management in the Public sector v Performance Management in the Private Sector .................................................................................................... 28 2.4 Performance Measurement and Management Systems in Policing ...................... 29 2.4.1 Performance Measurement and Management Systems (PMSs) Policing Literature Search ..................................................................................................... 30 2.4.2 The Balanced Scorecard ................................................................................. 33 2.4.3 Activity-Based Costing .................................................................................. 37 2.5 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................. 39 Chapter 3. Performance Measurement and Management of the Police .......................... 41 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 41 3.2 Structure and Accountability of the Police Forces of England and Wales ........... 42 3.3 Police Performance Management in England and Wales ..................................... 43 3.4 Modern History of Police Performance Management and the Rise of New Public Management ................................................................................................................ 43 3.4.1 Under the Conservative Party ........................................................................ 44 3.4.2 Under New Labour ......................................................................................... 46 3.4.3 Under the Coalition ........................................................................................ 50 3.5 Who Watches the Watchers: HMIC and the Role of Public Confidence in Police Performance Measurement and Management Systems (PMSs) ................................. 52 3.5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 52 3.5.2 Current Role of HMIC ................................................................................... 53 3.5.3 Relevant Police PMSs .................................................................................... 53 3.6 Concluding Remarks ............................................................................................. 58 iv Chapter 4. Public Confidence in Policing ....................................................................... 61 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 61 4.2 The Importance of Public Confidence in Policing ................................................ 63 4.3 The Measurement of Public Confidence in the UK .............................................. 65 4.3.1 The British Crime Survey/Crime Survey of England and Wales .................. 65 4.3.2 Concerns with Using BCS/CSEW Data to Measure Public Confidence ....... 68 4.4 The Assessment of the Drivers of Public Confidence .......................................... 69 4.4.1 Classification of Studies ................................................................................. 69 4.4.2 Evaluation of SEM Investigations into the Drivers of Public Confidence .... 71 4.4.3 Summary of Public Confidence SEM Studies ............................................... 77 4.5 Factors Assessed in the Research .......................................................................... 80 4.5.1 Public Confidence (PCON) ............................................................................ 80 4.5.2 Police Dealing with Local Issues (PDEAL)................................................... 82 4.5.3 Police and the Community (PCOM) .............................................................. 83 4.5.4 Police Interactions with the Public (PINT) .................................................... 84 4.5.5 Local Area Cohesion (LAC) .......................................................................... 87 4.5.6 Local Area Problems (LAP)..........................................................................