POLITICAL TSUNAMI Analysis of the Events in Northern Africa and the Middle East Editor Sergey Kurginyan EXPERIMENTAL CREATIVE CENTRE Moscow 2011 1 POLITICAL TSUNAMI. Analysis of events in Northern Africa and the Middle East M.: ECC, 2011. 264 pages. ISBN 978-5-7018-0520-8 Authors: Sergey Kurginyan, Yury Byaly, Anna Kudinova, Irina Kurginyan, Vladimir Novikov, Vladimir Ovchinsky, Maria Podkopaeva, Maria Ryjova This monograph represents the results of collective research carried out by a team of analysts under the guidance of Sergey Kurginyan. The socio-economic, political and conceptual roots of the unprecedented wave of “revolutionary excesses” of 2011 in Northern Africa and the Middle East, as well as external influence on the process are dealt with on the basis of a wide range of factual evidence and in a broad historical context. An analysis of internal and external “fault lines” and other latent “driving forces” of these “revolutionary excesses” is provided, as well as an assessment of the possible impact of developing processes on specific countries, the region as a whole and the future world order. ISBN 978-5-7018-0520-8 ©ECC, 2011 2 CONTENTS PART I. PROJECTS, or Analysis of the Intentions Now Being Realized in Northern Africa and the Middle East Chapter 1. Chronology of Major Mass Demonstrations in Northern Africa and the Middle East in Early 2011.......................... 5 Chapter 2. The “Greater Middle East” Project................................... 28 Chapter 3. The Initial Phase of the Democratization of Egypt............. 42 Chapter 4. The “War of Ideas”........................................................... 47 Chapter 5. “Global Political Awakening”........................................... 60 Chapter 6. Redemption from the “Original Sin”: Shifts in the Middle Eastern Process................................................... 72 Chapter 7. The Muslim Brotherhood................................................. 80 Chapter 8. The History of Cooperation between the West and Radical Islamists......................................................................... 88 Chapter 9. The Territory of Facts....................................................... 97 Chapter 10. The Territory of Interpretations..................................... 115 Chapter 11. Prognosis...................................................................... 135 Chapter 12. Recommendations........................................................ 137 PART II. REALITY, or Who and in What Way Meddles in the Project Designers’ Intentions Chapter 1. The Main Contradictions and Conflicts Defining Specifics of “Islamic Revolutions”..................................... 140 Libya................................................................................................. 140 Algeria............................................................................................... 155 3 Tunisia................................................................................... 159 Morocco ................................................................................. 164 Egypt ..................................................................................... 168 Syria ...................................................................................... 178 Yemen .................................................................................... 189 Turkey ................................................................................... 198 Iran ....................................................................................... 199 Iraq ....................................................................................... 201 Afghanistan ............................................................................ 202 Pakistan ................................................................................. 204 Sudan .................................................................................... 207 Somalia ................................................................................. 211 Jordan ................................................................................... 213 Saudi Arabia .......................................................................... 218 Kuwait ................................................................................... 222 Qatar ..................................................................................... 225 Bahrain ................................................................................. 227 United Arab Emirates .............................................................. 233 Oman ..................................................................................... 234 Chapter 2. Others .............................................................................. 237 Nigeria.................................................................................... 237 Côte d’Ivoire...........................................................................240 Bangladesh.............................................................................. 244 Chapter 3. In Which Details “Lies the Devil”: the General, Specific, and Mega-Project Prospects ........................... 246 Endnotes .......................................................................................... 254 4 PART I. PROJECTS, OR ANALYSIS OF THE INTENTIONS NOW BEING REALIZED IN NORTHERN AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST Chapter 1.Chronology of Major Mass Demonstrations in Northern Africa and the Middle East in Early 2011 The demonstrations in Algeria and Tunisia provided the initial impetus for the giant wave of protests in Northern Africa and the Middle East. Unrest in Algeria, as in Tunisia, had already begun in December 2010 in connection with the rise in food prices and it continued with varying intensity over the course of January and February 2011. However, it was not the Algerian demonstrations that played the role of a trigger for the region at large, but rather the political outburst in Tunisia in mid-January that occurred against their background. Tunisia. Jasmine Revolution An event in the small Tunisian city of Sidi Bou Zid served as a cue for the start of major unrest in the country. On December 17, 2010, a graduate of a law faculty forced to work as a street vendor committed self-immolation in the Tunisian city. After this, a crowd dissatisfied with the economic policy of President Ben Ali, which had led to massive unemployment and falling living standards, took to the city streets. On December 18, 2010, demonstrations by the unemployed began in other Tunisian cities. They were joined by lawyers and labor unions. Meanwhile, the majority of experts and reputable mass media agree that an important role in launching the revolution in Tunisia was played by secret materials with data about the ruling elite of the country, which was posted on the website WikiLeaks. Thus, Foreign Policy magazine called the shift in power that occurred in Tunisia the “first WikiLeaks revolution”. The post on WikiLeaks occurred just before the beginning of the riots. In the first half of December 2010, the coded telegram sent in June 2008 by then US Ambassador to Tunisia Robert F. Godec was posted on the site. The ambassador exposed the corruption of the Tunisian President Ben Ali’s family, the running of their businesses, and their disregard for the law. This post, in the opinion of many experts, set in motion the beginning of street protests. Thus, from January 10th, 2011, mass demonstrations in the Tunisian capital began, growing into clashes with the police. On January 12th, Tunisian universities closed and a general strike began. On January 14th, the military took up positions by the presidential palace, key ministries, and the international airport. Emergency rule was implemented throughout the entire territory of Tunisia. The police began a crackdown on demonstrators with the use of tear gas. On the same day, it was announced that the rebels had blockaded the presidential palace and government buildings. President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali announced the resignation of the government and fled to Saudi Arabia. On January 15th, the Constitutional Council of Tunisia stripped Ben Ali of his presidential powers. The speaker of the parliament was appointed interim president. In Tunisia, the main railway station was burned down by marauders and stores, cafes, shopping centers, and the houses of wealthy citizens were looted. On January 16th, the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi spoke in a televised address to the Tunisian people. He announced: “You have suffered a tremendous loss. There was no one who was better for Tunisia than Zine.” Gaddafi added that Ben Ali “will always remain the legitimate president of Tunisia in accordance with the constitution.” In Tunisia, on the same day, the nephew of the deposed president died from stab wounds. 6 On January 17th, the new composition of the Tunisian government was made public. It included representatives of both the ruling and opposition parties. On January 18th, four of the opposition ministers of the new government resigned. Meanwhile, in the country’s big cities demonstrations continued with the demand for the standing-down of all representatives from the former regime. On January 20th more than 30 relatives of the deposed President Ben Ali were taken into custody. Local TV stations showed confiscated jewels, gold, and credit cards. The accounts of Ben Ali and his close associates were quickly frozen by banks in Germany, France, and Switzerland. On February 1st, Agence France-Presse