Kyrgyzstan 2010: Conflict and Context Shirin Akiner SILK ROAD PAPER July 2016 Kyrgyzstan 2010: Conflict and Context Shirin Akiner © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program – A Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center Johns Hopkins University-SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Institute for Security and Development Policy, V. Finnbodavägen 2, Stockholm-Nacka 13130, Sweden www.silkroadstudies.org “Kyrgyzstan 2010: Conflict and Context” is a Silk Road Paper published by the Central Asia- Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program, Joint Center. The Silk Road Papers Series is the Occasional Paper series of the Joint Center, and addresses topical and timely subjects. The Joint Center is a transatlantic independent and non-profit research and policy center. It has offices in Washington and Stockholm and is affiliated with the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and the Stockholm-based In- stitute for Security and Development Policy. It is the first institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is firmly established as a leading research and policy center, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders, and journalists. The Joint Center is at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security, and development in the region. Through its applied research, publications, research cooperation, public lectures, and seminars, it functions as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion regarding the region. The opinions and conclusions expressed in this study are those of the author only, and do not necessarily reflect those of the Joint Center or its sponsors. © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, 2016 ISBN: 978-91-86635-94-7 Printed in Singapore Distributed in North America by: The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036 Tel. +1-202-663-7723; Fax. +1-202-663-7785 E-mail: [email protected] Distributed in Europe by: The Silk Road Studies Program Institute for Security and Development Policy V. Finnbodavägen 2, SE-13130 Stockholm-Nacka E-mail: [email protected] Editorial correspondence should be addressed to Alec Forss, Editor, at the European offices of the Joint Center (preferably by e-mail.) Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 5 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 10 Part I: Context ........................................................................................................................... 12 Socio-Economic Factors .................................................................................................... 12 Weak Governance ............................................................................................................ 13 Flawed Economic Reforms .............................................................................................. 15 Failing Social Services, Youth Alienation ...................................................................... 17 Crime and Corruption .................................................................................................... 18 Islam and Islamist Radicalization ................................................................................... 21 Erosion of Civic Identity ................................................................................................. 25 North/South Divide ........................................................................................................ 27 A Conflicted Society ......................................................................................................... 31 Osh Province, May-June 1990 ....................................................................................... 31 Batken Province, 1999-2000 ........................................................................................... 33 Aksy, 2002 ...................................................................................................................... 35 Jalal-Abad, 2005 .............................................................................................................. 36 Geo-Political Trends 1992-2010 ....................................................................................... 37 Uzbekistan ....................................................................................................................... 38 United States................................................................................................................... 39 Russia .............................................................................................................................. 41 Towards the Closure of Manas ....................................................................................... 43 China ............................................................................................................................... 48 Part II: Conflict ......................................................................................................................... 50 From Public Anger to Protests to Deadly Clashes ...................................................... 50 April ................................................................................................................................ 52 May ................................................................................................................................. 53 June ................................................................................................................................. 54 External Responses ............................................................................................................ 56 Humanitarian Assistance ............................................................................................... 56 Evacuation of Foreign Nationals .................................................................................... 57 Regional Organizations .................................................................................................. 57 Strategic Partners and Regional Neighbors ................................................................... 60 Counting the Cost ........................................................................................................... 63 Part III: Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 65 Victims and Assailants ..................................................................................................... 65 Salient Features of the Conflict ...................................................................................... 66 Conspiracy Theories ......................................................................................................... 68 Great Power Rivalry ....................................................................................................... 69 The ‘Third Force’ ............................................................................................................. 73 Civil Society, Media and Rumor .................................................................................... 75 Citizen Militias .................................................................................................................. 77 Official Reports and Reactions ....................................................................................... 78 Part IV: Post-Conflict Trends ............................................................................................... 83 Renewing the Political Process ....................................................................................... 83 Elections .......................................................................................................................... 84 New Constitution, Old Tensions .................................................................................... 88 Islamist Radicalization .................................................................................................... 93 The Changing Geopolitical Environment .................................................................... 98 Uzbekistan ....................................................................................................................... 99 United States................................................................................................................. 100 Russia ............................................................................................................................ 103 Bishkek’s Pivot to Asia .................................................................................................. 109 2010: A Turning Point – or Not? ....................................................................................... 119 Annex 1: Chronicle of Events, January-July 2010 ............................................ 126 Annex 2: Biographical Notes ............................................................................... 136 Author Bio ............................................................................................................................... 142 Executive Summary In 2010, Kyrgyzstan