Review and Assessment of Air Quality in the Borough of Dartford - Stage 2 Public Consultation This report has been circulated to all local authorities in Kent, local public libraries, other interested parties and to Members of Dartford Borough Council’s Environment, Housing and Community Services Committee. Any comments or questions should be directed to the following address no later than Friday 28 May 1999; Duncan Philips Scientific Officer Environmental Strategic Development Directorate of Environment and Leisure Dartford Borough Council Civic Centre Dartford Kent DA1 1DR Tel: 01322-343250 Fax: 01322-343963 e-mail : [email protected] All comments received will be given due consideration and taken into account during the preparation of the Stage 3 Review and Assessment. 1 Review and Assessment of Air Quality in the Borough of Dartford - Stage 2 Contents The Borough of Dartford 3 1.0 Executive Summary 4 2.0 Stage 2 Review 6 2.1 Carbon Monoxide 7 2.2 Nitrogen Dioxide 11 2.3 PM10 18 2.4 Sulphur Dioxide 22 3.0 Meteorology and Local Weather Conditions 27 4.0 Atmospheric Emissions Inventory 31 5.0 Local Air Quality Monitoring 35 6.0 Conclusions 38 7.0 Recommendations 38 8.0 Appendices 39 2 Review and Assessment of Air Quality in the Borough of Dartford - Stage 2 The Borough of Dartford Dartford Borough lies 15 miles from Central London in North West Kent between the North Downs and the River Thames. One of the smaller of the Kent districts, it covers an area of about 7630 hectares and has a population approaching 84,000. The Borough is strategically located on two of the principal lines of communication within the South East - the M25 London orbital motorway and the A2, linking London to the Channel ports. The northern part of the Borough between the A2 and the Thames includes the towns of Dartford and Swanscombe and is substantially built-up. It also includes the major development sites within the Borough, and lies within the Kent Thames-side area of the Thames Gateway. This area has been identified by Government as one of two areas within Thames Gateway with the potential for significant growth. The southern part of the Borough is generally rural in character and comprises a mix of open countryside, covered by Green Belt designation, and a number of villages and dormitory settlements. Dartford is an important employment centre with major employers such as Glaxo Wellcome, Dartford and Gravesham and Thameslink Health Trusts, the Borough Council and J&E Hall located within the town centre. However, the Borough’s proximity to London and it’s good rail and coach connections mean that many residents commute to work elsewhere. Several major developments are planned or under construction within the Borough e.g. Ebbsfleet, the Channel Tunnel Rail Link and the new Bluewater Regional Shopping Centre. Also there are an estimated 22,000 new homes and other leisure and commercial projects planned for the Thames gateway area, many of which are within the Borough. It is anticipated that road traffic on major and local roads will increase significantly. 3 Review and Assessment of Air Quality in the Borough of Dartford - Stage 2 Review and Assessment of Air Quality in the Borough of Dartford Stage 2 1.0 Executive Summary Section 88(2) of the Environment Act 1995 places a statutory obligation upon local authorities to periodically review and assess air quality within the boundary of their jurisdiction. The enactment of the Air Quality Regulations 1997 signified the start of the review process and that this should be completed no later than 22 December 1999. Guidance issued by the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions (DETR) advises that the review process should be carried out in a staged approach. The aim of the process is to give consideration to the likelihood of the standards specified in the Air Quality Regulations 1997 being achieved by the objective target date of 31 December 2005. In considering the individual pollutants, each authority is to be aware that national policies are expected to deliver an improvement in air quality by 2005 and that local control measures should be minimal. However, it is accepted that some pollutants, such as fine particulates, need to be dealt with at both local and regional levels and that measures to control them may be more challenging than some other pollutants such as lead. This report presents the Stage 2 Review and Assessment of Air Quality in the Borough of Dartford. It contains a variety of data that relates to the four pollutants identified in the Stage 1 Review and Assessment (carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, fine particulates and sulphur dioxide) as being of potential concern by the end of the year 2005. These pollutants have been identified and selected for the possibility of them not achieving the required standards by the end of 2005. Assessments have been made to try to predict the changes in development, road traffic and any other influencing factors. At all times, assessments have been made whilst having regard to the risk of exposure to pollutants over the timescale defined in each individual case. Areas of high residential density, retail centres and schools, for example, are of prime concern. The following drawing shows the locations of all the schools in the Borough and demonstrates that there are very few areas that do not need detailed consideration. Locations of Schools - an indication of The quality of the air that we breathe is residential density influenced by a range of potential sources of pollution and the manner in which that pollution mixes and disperses is a highly complex science, some aspects of which #0 #0 are still being discovered. In undertaking #0 #0 #0 #0#0 this Stage 2 Review, consideration has ##00 #0 #0 ##00 #0 #0 #0 #0 #0 #0 been given to the area surrounding the #0 #0 ##00 #0 Borough and potential sources of pollution #0 ##00 ###000 that might not be immediately apparent. #0 #0 Air movement is multi dimensional and #0 #0 #0 the air that moves across the Borough has been subjected to pollution from other #0 places and is in the process of dispersion #0 at the same time as it receives a pollutant load. This is a continual cycle and one that is very difficult to predict. Meteorology has an important influence on this process and consequently upon the levels of pollutants that are recorded by real-time analysis equipment. This review has considered the results from many real-time analysers across England and they have been chosen because their siting is comparable to sites that might be found in the Borough. It is not unreasonable to suggest that similar circumstances in one area will produce similar results in another that can be used for a ‘rule of thumb’ approach. No attempt has been made to suggest that the results are definitive, but they can be used reliably as an indicative guide. By using results from sites with 4 Review and Assessment of Air Quality in the Borough of Dartford - Stage 2 several years data a greater level of confidence can be given to them and having results for the same pollutant from several sites increases that confidence still further. This is a realistic approach as opposed to using complex computer models. The use of computer models is a complicated issue which needs further consideration before deciding upon the most appropriate models to use. 1.1 Review and Assessment Summary Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Benzene 1,3-Butadiene Carbon Monoxide � Carbon Monoxide Lead Nitrogen Dioxide � Nitrogen Dioxide � Nitrogen Dioxide PM10 � PM10 � PM10 Sulphur Dioxide � Sulphur Dioxide 1.2 Nitrogen Dioxide The evidence suggests that the nitrogen dioxide levels are likely to fail to meet the required standards for the annual average and also for the hourly average in some parts of the Borough by the objective target date. Therefore, a Stage 3 Review and Assessment using real-time analysing equipment needs to be carried out for this pollutant. 1.3 PM10 The evidence suggests that fine particulate levels are likely to fail to meet the required standards in some parts of the Borough by the objective target date. Therefore, a Stage 3 Review and Assessment using real-time analysing equipment needs to be carried out for this pollutant. 1.4 Sulphur Dioxide and Carbon Monoxide The evidence suggests that sulphur dioxide and carbon monoxide levels are likely to meet the required standards by the objective target date. No further assessment of these pollutants is therefore required at this stage. 1.5 Proposals to amend the National Air Quality Strategy During 1999, the NAQS will be reviewed and amendments will be made to bring the Strategy into line with current Government policy. When appropriate, changes which may occur in the NAQS and/or the factors influencing local air quality will be incorporated in the review and assessment process being undertaken. 5 Review and Assessment of Air Quality in the Borough of Dartford - Stage 2 2.0 Stage 2 Review and Assessment This section of the report provides a review and assessment of the levels of carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, PM10 and sulphur dioxide in the Borough. Where possible, monitoring data has been used and this has been combined with a comparative analysis from sites in other Boroughs, long term national statistics and data from the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI). Assessments have been based upon a combination of this data and using a professional judgement to estimate the likelihood of exceedences at the end of 2005. The assessment has been made by comparing data to the National Air Quality Strategy (NAQS) although it should be acknowledged that other standards do exist.