Modern Political Warfare Current Practices and Possible Responses Linda Robinson, Todd C. Helmus, Raphael S. Cohen, Alireza Nader, Andrew Radin, Madeline Magnuson, Katya Migacheva C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR1772 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9707-1 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: iStock/Getty Images Plus Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This study, Modern Political Warfare: Current Practices and Possible Responses, examines political warfare as practiced today by both state and nonstate actors, including Russia, Iran, and the Islamic State. The study recommends revisions in U.S. military and nonmilitary approaches and capabilities to better address threats short of conven- tional warfare. The findings and recommendations should be of inter- est to the U.S. military, the U.S. State Department, and those in the executive and legislative branches charged with national security policy responsibilities. Allied and wider public audiences may also find this study of interest. The study was produced as the deliverable for an Army project titled “Theory and History of Political Warfare (POLWAR).” The proj- ect sponsor requested that RAND Arroyo Center examine whether a modern variant of political warfare is needed to address its potential use as a tool to confront ideological threats, as well as its potential use by nonstate or state-sponsored entities. The sponsor also requested exami- nation of implications for Army spe cial operations forces and inter- agency and multinational partners. The interviews and research for this report were conducted in 2016 and 2017. This research was sponsored by the U.S. Army Special Operations Command G-9 and conducted within the RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army. The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is RAN156926. iii Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures and Tables ............................................................... xi Summary .........................................................................xiii Acknowledgments ............................................................. xxv Abbreviations ..................................................................xxvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Purpose of Study ................................................................... 1 What Is “Political Warfare”? ...................................................... 2 Research Approach and Organization of Study ................................ 6 CHAPTER TWO History of U.S. Political Warfare .............................................11 American Political Warfare’s Early History ....................................12 The Cold War and Political Warfare’s Coming of Age .......................15 Diplomatic/Political ............................................................17 Informational ....................................................................19 Military ......................................................................... 23 Economic ....................................................................... 27 U.S. Political Warfare after the Cold War .....................................29 Summary ...........................................................................32 References—Chapters 1 and 2 ................................................. 34 v vi Modern Political Warfare CHAPTER THREE Case Study: Russia ...............................................................41 Rus sian Understanding of Political Warfare .................................. 42 Sources of Rus sian Views of Political Warfare ............................. 48 Rus sian Organizations That Pursue “Political Warfare” .................... 54 Diplomatic and Proxy ......................................................... 56 Informational ....................................................................61 Cyber .............................................................................69 Military ..........................................................................71 Intelligence .......................................................................76 Economic ........................................................................78 Coordination/Leadership ......................................................83 Russia’s Political Warfare in Estonia ............................................85 Historical Context ............................................................. 86 The “Bronze Night” as an Example of Rus sian Political Warfare .........89 What Happened? .............................................................. 90 Analysis ..........................................................................93 Current Rus sian Means of Influence in Estonia .............................. 96 Diplomatic and Proxy ......................................................... 96 Informational ................................................................... 99 Cyber ............................................................................ 99 Intelligence ..................................................................... 100 Economic ...................................................................... 100 Conclusion ....................................................................... 102 Rus sian Political Warfare Is a Response to Western Political Warfare .................................................................... 102 Rus sian Political Warfare Stokes Conflict and Capitalizes on Crises ...................................................................... 103 Rus sian Political Warfare Depends on the Geographic and Political Context ......................................................... 103 References—Chapter 3 ......................................................... 104 CHAPTER FOUR Case Study: Iran ............................................................... 125 Iran’s Views of Political Warfare .............................................. 126 Methods and Agencies of Political Warfare .................................. 129 Contents vii Iran’s Political Warfare in Iraq ................................................. 135 Political Manipulation ....................................................... 136 Economic Influence .......................................................... 139 Support for Iraqi Militias .................................................... 140 Religious and Ideological Propaganda ...................................... 144 The Iraqi Nationalist Challenge ............................................. 148 Iran’s Political Warfare in Syria ................................................ 149 Training the National Defense Force ....................................... 150 Religious Appeals to Shi’a Fighters ......................................... 151 Economic Influence .......................................................... 154 Public Diplomacy ............................................................. 156 Conclusion ....................................................................... 157 References—Chapter 4 ......................................................... 159 CHAPTER FIVE Case Study: ISIL ............................................................... 171 Introduction ..................................................................... 171 ISIL’s Strateg y .................................................................... 172 Information Operations ...................................................... 173 Economic Subversion and Control ......................................... 179 Diplomacy ..................................................................... 180 ISIL’s Application of Political Warfare Tactics ............................... 182 Diplomacy ..................................................................... 182 Economic Subversion and Control ......................................... 184 Military and Intelligence ..................................................... 186 Informational and